Inter-relationships between cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases: Underlying evidence and implications for integrated interdisciplinary care and management.

Cardiovascular, renal and metabolic (CaReMe) diseases are individually among the leading global causes of death, and each is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. However, as these conditions commonly coexist in the same patient, the individual risk of mortality and morbidity is further compounded, leading to a considerable healthcare burden. A number of pathophysiological pathways are common to diseases of the CaReMe spectrum, including neurohormonal dysfunction, visceral adiposity and insulin resistance, oxidative stress and systemic inflammation. Because of the shared pathology and common co-occurrence of the CaReMe diseases, the value of managing these conditions holistically is increasingly being realized. A number of pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches have been shown to offer simultaneous metabolic, cardioprotective and renoprotective benefits, leading to improved patient outcomes across the CaReMe spectrum. In addition, increasing value is being placed on interdisciplinary team-based and coordinated care models built on greater integration between specialties to increase the rate of early diagnosis and adherence to practice guidelines, and improve clinical outcomes. This interdisciplinary approach also facilitates integration between primary and specialty care, improving the patient experience, optimizing resources, and leading to efficiencies and cost savings. As the burden of CaReMe diseases continues to increase, implementation of innovative and integrated care delivery models will be essential to achieve effective and efficient chronic disease management and to ensure that patients benefit from the best care available across all three disciplines.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk factors from retinal fundus photographs: Validation of a deep learning algorithm in a prospective non-interventional study in Kenya.

AIM: Hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM) are major causes of morbidity and mortality, with growing burdens in low-income countries where they are underdiagnosed and undertreated. Advances in machine learning may provide opportunities to enhance diagnostics in settings with limited medical infrastructure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A non-interventional study was conducted to develop and validate a machine learning algorithm to estimate cardiovascular clinical and laboratory parameters. At two sites in Kenya, digital retinal fundus photographs were collected alongside blood pressure (BP), laboratory measures and medical history. The performance of machine learning models, originally trained using data from the UK Biobank, were evaluated for their ability to estimate BP, glycated haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate and diagnoses from fundus images. RESULTS: In total, 301 participants were enrolled. Compared with the UK Biobank population used for algorithm development, participants from Kenya were younger and would probably report Black/African ethnicity, with a higher body mass index and prevalence of DM and hypertension. The mean absolute error was comparable or slightly greater for systolic BP, diastolic BP, glycated haemoglobin and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The model trained to identify DM had an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.762 (0.818 in the UK Biobank) and the hypertension model had an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.765 (0.738 in the UK Biobank). CONCLUSIONS: In a Kenyan population, machine learning models estimated cardiovascular parameters with comparable or slightly lower accuracy than in the population where they were trained, suggesting model recalibration may be appropriate. This study represents an incremental step toward leveraging machine learning to make early cardiovascular screening more accessible, particularly in resource-limited settings.

HbA1c trajectories over 3 years in people with type 2 diabetes starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy: The prospective global DISCOVER study.

AIM: To identify distinct HbA1c trajectories in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER was a 3-year observational study of individuals with T2D beginning second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Data were collected at initiation of second-line treatment (baseline) and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Latent class growth modelling was used to identify groups with distinct HbA1c trajectories. RESULTS: After exclusions, 9295 participants were assessed. Four distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified. Mean HbA1c levels decreased between baseline and 6 months in all groups; 72.4% of participants showed stable good levels of glycaemic control over the remainder of follow-up, 18.0% showed stable moderate levels of glycaemic control and 2.9% showed stable poor levels of glycaemic control. Only 6.7% of participants showed highly improved glycaemic control at month 6 and stable control over the rest of follow-up. For all groups, dual oral therapy use decreased over time, compensated for by the increasing use of other treatment regimens. Use of injectable agents increased over time in groups with moderate and poor glycaemic control. Logistic regression models suggested that participants from high-income countries were more probable to be in the stable good trajectory group. CONCLUSIONS: Most people receiving second-line glucose-lowering treatment in this global cohort achieved stable good or highly improved long-term glycaemic control. One-fifth of participants showed moderate or poor glycaemic control during follow-up. Further large-scale studies are required to characterize possible factors associated with patterns of glycaemic control to inform personalized diabetes treatment.

All-cause and cardiorenal mortality in 6 million adults with and without type 2 diabetes: A comparative, trend analysis in Canada, Spain, and the UK.

AIMS: To understand geographical and temporal patterns in the diabetes gap, the excess mortality risk associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), in three high-income countries. METHODS: Using databases from Canada (Ontario), Spain (Catalonia) and the UK (England), we harmonized the study design and the analytical strategy to extract information on subjects aged over 35 years with incident T2D between 1998 and 2018 matched to up to five subjects without diabetes. We used Poisson models to estimate age-specific mortality trends by diabetes status and rate ratios and rate differences associated with T2D. RESULTS: In more than 6 million people, 694 454 deaths occurred during a follow-up of 52 million person-years. Trends in all-cause mortality rates differed between Ontario and England; yet, the diabetes gaps were very similar in recent years: in 2018, we estimated 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) and 0.8 (0.2, 1.5) more deaths per 1000 person-years in 50-year-old men with diabetes in Ontario and England, respectively, and 8.9 (6.1, 11.7) and 12.1 (9.1, 15.1) in 80-year-old men; between-country differences were small also in women. In Catalonia, rate ratios comparing T2D with no diabetes in men in 2018 were 1.53 (1.11, 2.11) at 50 years old, 0.88 (0.72, 1.06) at 60 years old, 0.74 (0.60, 0.90) at 70 years old and 0.81 (0.66, 1.00) at 80 years old, indicating lower mortality rates in men with T2D from the age of 60 years; rates were similar in women with and without diabetes at all ages. The diabetes gaps in cardiorenal mortality mirrored those of all-cause mortality: we observed consistent reductions in the proportions of cardiorenal deaths in subjects aged 80 years but variations in subjects aged ≤70 years, regardless of the presence of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: By reducing the confounding impact of epidemiological and analytical differences, this study showed geographical similarities and differences in the diabetes gap: an excess risk of all-cause and cardiorenal mortality in subjects with T2D is still present in Ontario and England in recent years, particularly in elderly subjects. Conversely, there were very small gaps in young men with T2D or even lower mortality rates in older subjects with T2D in Catalonia.

Treatment patterns and glycated haemoglobin levels over 36 months in individuals with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy: The global DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To describe glucose-lowering treatment regimens and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) over 36 months of follow-up from the start of second-line therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This data analysis from the 3-year, observational DISCOVER study programme included 14 687 participants from 37 countries with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Treatment and HbA1c data were collected at baseline (start of second-line therapy) and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Treatment regimen changes over follow-up were analysed using the McNemar test, with carry-forward imputation for intermediate missing values. RESULTS: A total of 11 592 participants had treatment data at baseline and 36 months, and 11 882 had HbA1c data at baseline. At baseline and 36 months, respectively, rates of oral monotherapy use were 12.1% and 12.4% (P = 0.22), rates of dual oral therapy use were 63.4% and 47.6% (P < 0.0001), rates of ≥ triple oral therapy use were 17.5% and 25.4% (P < 0.0001), and rates of injectable treatment use were 7.0% and 13.7% (P < 0.0001). Use of injectable drugs was most common among participants with an HbA1c level ≥64 mmol/mol (≥8.0%). Overall, 42.9% of participants changed treatment during follow-up. Mean HbA1c levels at baseline and 6 months were 67 mmol/mol (8.3%) and 55 mmol/mol (7.2%), respectively, remaining stable thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Dual oral therapy was the most common treatment regimen at the start of second-line treatment, and over half of the participants remained on the same treatment during follow-up.

Incidence rates and predictors of microvascular and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: Results from the longitudinal global discover study.

BACKGROUND: Micro- and macrovascular complications are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We sought to understand the global incidence rates and predictors of these complications. METHODS: We examined the incidence of vascular complications over 3 years of follow-up in the DISCOVER study-a global, observational study of people with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Hierarchical Cox proportional hazards regression models examined factors associated with development of micro- and macrovascular complications during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 11,357 people with T2D from 33 countries (mean age 56.9 ± 11.7 years, T2D duration 5.7 ± 5.1 years, HbA1c 8.4 ± 1.7%), 19.0% had a microvascular complication at enrolment (most commonly neuropathy), and 13.2% had a macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). Over 3 years of follow-up, 16.0% developed an incident microvascular complication, and 6.6% had an incident macrovascular complication. At the end of 3 years of follow-up, 31.5% of patients had at least one microvascular complication, and 16.6% had at least one macrovascular complication. Higher HbA1c and smoking were associated with greater risk of both incident micro- and macrovascular complications. Known macrovascular complications at baseline was the strongest predictor for development of new microvascular complications (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 -1.61) and new macrovascular complications (HR 3.39, 95% CI 2.84 -4.06). CONCLUSIONS: In this global study, both the prevalence and 3-year incidence of vascular complications were high in patients with relatively short T2D duration, highlighting the need for early risk-factor modification.

Cardiovascular and mortality benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: CVD-Real Catalonia.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from prospective cardiovascular (CV) outcome trials in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients supports the use of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) to reduce the risk of CV events. In this study, we compared the risk of several CV outcomes between new users of SGLT2i and other glucose-lowering drugs (oGLDs) in Catalonia, Spain. METHODS: CVD-REAL Catalonia was a retrospective cohort study using real-world data routinely collected between 2013 and 2016. The cohorts of new users of SGLT2i and oGLDs were matched by propensity score on a 1:1 ratio. We compared the incidence rates and hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and modified major adverse CV event (MACE; all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke). RESULTS: After propensity score matching, 12,917 new users were included in each group. About 27% of users had a previous history of CV disease. In the SGLT2i group, the exposure time was 60% for dapagliflozin, 26% for empagliflozin and 14% for canagliflozin. The use of SGLT2i was associated with a lower risk of heart failure (HR: 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.74; p < 0.001), all-cause death (HR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.31-0.54; p < 0.001), all-cause death or heart failure (HR = 0.55; 95% CI 0.47-0.63; p < 0.001), modified MACE (HR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.52-0.74; p < 0.001), and chronic kidney disease (HR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.54-0.80; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, retrospective observational study of patients with T2DM from a Catalonia, initiation of SGLT-2i was associated with lower risk of mortality, as well as heart failure and CKD.

Cardiovascular outcomes with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors vs other glucose-lowering drugs in 13 countries across three continents: analysis of CVD-REAL data.

BACKGROUND: Randomized, controlled cardiovascular outcome trials may not be fully representative of the management of patients with type 2 diabetes across different geographic regions. We conducted analyses of data from the multinational CVD-REAL consortium to determine the association between initiation of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) and cardiovascular outcomes, including subgroup analyses based on patient characteristics. METHODS: De-identified health records from 13 countries across three continents were used to identify patients newly-initiated on SGLT-2i or other glucose-lowering drugs (oGLDs). Propensity scores for SGLT-2i initiation were developed in each country, with 1:1 matching for oGLD initiation. In the matched groups hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), all-cause death (ACD), the composite of HHF or ACD, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke were estimated by country, and pooled using a weighted meta-analysis. Multiple subgroup analyses were conducted across patient demographic and clinical characteristics to examine any heterogeneity in treatment effects. RESULTS: Following matching, 440,599 new users of SGLT-2i and oGLDs were included in each group. Mean follow-up time was 396 days for SGLT-2i initiation and 406 days for oGLDs initiation. SGLT-2i initiation was associated with a lower risk of HHF (HR: 0.66, 95%CI 0.58-0.75; p < 0.001), ACD (HR: 0.52, 95%CI 0.45-0.60; p < 0.001), the composite of HHF or ACD (HR: 0.60, 95%CI 0.53-0.68; p < 0.001), MI (HR: 0.85, 95%CI 0.78-0.92; p < 0.001), and stroke (HR: 0.78, 95%CI 0.72-0.85; p < 0.001); regardless of patient characteristics, including established cardiovascular disease, or geographic region. CONCLUSIONS: This CVD-REAL study extends the findings from the SGLT-2i clinical trials to the broader setting of an ethnically and geographically diverse population, and across multiple subgroups. Trial registration NCT02993614.

Association of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors with outcomes in type 2 diabetes with reduced and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction: Analysis from the CVD-REAL 2 study.

This study of real-world data from the Maccabi database in Israel compared the risk of heart failure hospitalization (HHF) or death in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors versus other glucose-lowering drugs (OGLDs) according to baseline left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF). After propensity-matching patients by baseline EF there were 10 614 episodes of treatment initiation; 57% had diabetes for >10 years, the mean glycated haemoglobin level was 66 mmol/mol (8.2%), ∼43% had cardiovascular disease, ∼7% had heart failure and ∼ 20% had chronic kidney disease. A total of 2876 patients (∼9%) had reduced EF (<50%). Over a mean follow-up of 1.5 years there were 371 HHFs or deaths, 88 (23.7%) in patients with reduced EF. Initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors versus OGLDs was associated with lower risk of HHF or death overall (hazard ratio [HR] 0.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46-0.70]; P < 0.001) and in patients with both reduced EF (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.93) and preserved EF (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.70), with no significant heterogeneity (Pinteraction = 0.72). Our findings from real-world clinical practice show that the lower risk of HHF and death associated with use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus OGLDs is consistent in T2D patients with both reduced and preserved EF.

Renal outcomes and all-cause death associated with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors versus other glucose-lowering drugs (CVD-REAL 3 Korea).

AIMS: To investigate the effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on the risk of progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality in a broad range of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using a Korean nationwide cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database from January 2014 to December 2017, a total of 701 674 patients were identified with T2D. We divided these patients into new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and new users of other glucose-lowering drugs (oGLDs). Using propensity scores, patients in the two groups were matched 1:1. We assessed the risk of ESRD and all-cause death. RESULTS: There were 45 016 patients in each group, and baseline characteristics were well balanced between the groups. The patients' mean age was 58.1 ± 10.6 years and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 89.2 ± 27.4 mL/min/1.73m2 , and 8% of patients had proteinuria. We identified 167 incident ESRD cases and 1070 all-cause deaths during follow-up. Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus oGLDs was associated with a lower risk of ESRD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34 to 0.65) and all-cause death (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93). In a subgroup analysis by eGFR, initiation of SGLT2 inhibitor treatment, compared with oGLD treatment, was associated with lower risk of progression to ESRD among patients with eGFR 60 to 90 mL/min/1.73m2 and those with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , and a lower risk of all-cause death was associated with SGLT2 inhibitors versus oGLDs in patients with eGFR ≥90 and 60 to 90 mL/min/1.73m2 . CONCLUSION: In this large nationwide study of Korean patients with T2D, initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors versus oGLDs was associated with lower risk of ESRD and all-cause death.

Prevalence and progression of chronic kidney disease among patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from the DISCOVER study.

We report the prevalence and change in severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in DISCOVER, a global, 3-year, prospective, observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. CKD stages were defined according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Overall, 7843 patients from 35 countries had a baseline serum creatinine measurement. Of these (56.7% male; mean age: 58.1 years; mean eGFR: 87.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 ), baseline prevalence estimates for stage 0-1, 2, 3 and 4-5 CKD were 51.4%, 37.7%, 9.4% and 1.4%, respectively. A total of 5819 patients (74.2%) also had at least one follow-up serum creatinine measurement (median time between measurements: 2.9 years, interquartile range: 1.9-3.0 years). Mean eGFR decreased slightly to 85.7 mL/min/1.73 m2 over follow-up. CKD progression (increase of ≥1 stage) occurred in 15.7% of patients, and regression (decrease of ≥1 stage) in 12.0%. In summary, a substantial proportion of patients with T2D developed CKD or had CKD progression after the initiation of second-line therapy. Renal function should be regularly monitored in these patients, to ensure early CKD diagnosis and treatment.

Global patterns of comprehensive cardiovascular risk factor control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Insights from the DISCOVER study.

AIM: To investigate global patterns of cardiovascular risk factor control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). METHODS: DISCOVER is an international, observational cohort study of patients with T2D beginning second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Risk factor management was examined among eligible patients (ie, those with the risk factor) at study baseline. Inter-country variability was estimated using median odds ratios (MORs). RESULTS: Among 14 343 patients with T2D from 34 countries, the mean age was 57.4 ± 12.0 years and the median (interquartile range) duration of T2D was 4.2 (2.0-8.0) years; 11.8% had documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Among eligible patients, blood pressure was controlled in 67.5% (9284/13756), statins were prescribed in 43.7% (5775/13208), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers were prescribed in 55.6% (5292/9512), aspirin was prescribed in 53.3% of those with established ASCVD (876/1645), and 84.4% (12 102/14343) were non-smoking. Only 21.5% of patients (3088/14343) had optimal risk factor management (defined as control of all eligible measures), with wide inter-country variability (10%-44%), even after adjusting for patient and site differences (MOR 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.24-1.66). CONCLUSION: Globally, comprehensive control of ASCVD risk factors is not being achieved in most patients, with wide variability among countries unaccounted for by patient and site differences. Better country-specific strategies are needed to implement comprehensive cardiovascular risk factor control consistently in patients with T2D to improve long-term outcomes.

Renoprotection with SGLT2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes over a spectrum of cardiovascular and renal risk.

Approximately half of all patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) develop a certain degree of renal impairment. In many of them, chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses over time, eventually leading to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring dialysis and conveying a substantially increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Even with widespread use of renin-angiotensin system blockers and tight glycemic control, a substantial residual risk of nephropathy progression remains. Recent cardiovascular outcomes trials investigating sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have suggested that these therapies have renoprotective effects distinct from their glucose-lowering action, including the potential to reduce the rates of ESKD and acute kidney injury. Although patients in most cardiovascular outcomes trials had higher prevalence of existing cardiovascular disease compared with those normally seen in clinical practice, the proportion of patients with renal impairment was similar to that observed in a real-world context. Patient cardiovascular risk profiles did not relevantly impact the renoprotective benefits observed in these studies. Benefits were observed in patients across a spectrum of renal risk, but were evident also in those without renal damage, suggesting a role for SGLT2 inhibition in the prevention of CKD in people with T2D. In addition, recent studies such as CREDENCE and DAPA-CKD offer a greater insight into the renoprotective effects of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with moderate-to-severe CKD. This review outlines the evidence that SGLT2 inhibitors may prevent the development of CKD and prevent and delay the worsening of CKD in people with T2D at different levels of renal risk.

Cardiovascular protection with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes: Does it apply to all patients?

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cardiovascular risk in these patients should be considered as a continuum, and comprehensive treatment strategies should aim to target multiple disease risk factors. Large-scale clinical trials of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have shown an impact on cardiovascular outcomes, including heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death, which appears to be independent of their glucose-lowering efficacy. Reductions in major cardiovascular events appear to be greatest in patients with established CVD, particularly those with prior myocardial infarction, but are independent of heart failure or renal risk. Most large-scale trials of SGLT2 inhibitors predominantly include patients with T2D with pre-existing CVD and high cardiovascular risk at baseline, limiting their applicability to patients typically observed in clinical practice. Real-world evidence from observational studies suggests that there might also be beneficial effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality in various cohorts of lower risk patients. The most common adverse events reported in clinical and observational studies are genital infections; however, the overall risk of these events appears to be low and easily managed. Similar safety profiles have been reported for elderly and younger patients. There is still some debate regarding the safety of canagliflozin in patients at high risk of fracture and amputation. Outstanding questions include specific patterns of cardiovascular protection according to baseline risk.

Durability of glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes after metformin failure: Prognostic model derivation and validation using the DISCOVER study.

AIM: To develop and internally validate prognostic models on the long-term durability of glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes after metformin failure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER is a 3-year, prospective observational study across six continents investigating second-line glucose-lowering therapies. In this analysis from 35 countries, we included patients on metformin initiating second-line glucose-lowering medication(s) because of physician-defined lack of efficacy. The outcome was durability of glycaemic control, defined as three consecutive levels of HbA1c at 6-, 12- and 24-month follow-up at target (HbA1c equal to or lower than the level when the physician initiated the second-line therapy in patients with baseline HbA1c ≤7% [53 mmol/mol]; and equal to or lower than 7% in those with baseline HbA1c >7%). We developed and internally validated two prognostic models: a base model, which included age, sex, ethnicity, country income group, baseline HbA1c and second-line therapy, and an advanced model, established through statistical variable selections from a model including base variables and 13 additional predictors selected from a literature review. We used logistic regression to develop and 500 bootstrapping samples to internally validate the models; discrimination and calibration were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Overall, 896 out of 2995 participants (29.9%) had sustained glycaemic control. The base model performed well: Nagelkerke R2 was 0.13, C-index 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) and bias-corrected C-index 0.69 after internal validation. Diabetes duration, insurance type, estimated glomerular filtration rate and glucose self-monitoring were additionally selected in the advanced model, which had only a slightly better performance compared with the base model: Nagelkerke R2 0.20, C-index 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.73) and bias-corrected C-index 0.70. Calibration plots showed good calibrations of both validated models. CONCLUSION: These prognostic models, which include simple demographic and routinely collected clinical information, enabled the estimation of the probability of 2-year sustained glycaemic control in patients after metformin failure. The models have been implemented into a web-based tool to support healthcare professionals in their decisions.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A comprehensive economic evaluation using clinical trial and real-world evidence.

AIMS: The economic burden of diabetes is driven by the management of vascular complications. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have demonstrated reductions in cardiovascular and renal complications, including hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) and renal disease progression, in randomized clinical trials. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the SGLT2i class versus standard of care in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using evidence from both clinical trial and real-world studies. METHODS: An established T2DM model was adapted to use contemporary outcomes evidence from real-world studies and randomized controlled trial evaluations of SGLT2i, and extrapolated over a lifetime for HHF, myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease and all-cause mortality. The economic analysis considered adults with T2DM, with and without established cardiovascular disease, and was conducted over a lifetime from the perspective of the health care payer in the United Kingdom, United States and China, discounted at country-specific rates. RESULTS: SGLT2i were consistently associated with increased treatment costs, reduced complication costs and gains in quality-adjusted life years driven by differences in projected life expectancy, cardiovascular and microvascular morbidity and weight loss. SGLT2i were estimated to be cost-saving or cost-effective at relevant thresholds for the overall population in the United Kingdom, United States and China, with cost-effectiveness being the greatest in higher risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the need to take into account cost savings from reducing common, morbid and preventable T2DM complications when considering the cost of diabetes medications.

Glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line therapy: Results from the global DISCOVER study programme.

AIM: To assess glycaemic control and factors associated with poor glycaemic control at initiation of second-line therapy in the DISCOVER programme. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER (NCT02322762 and NCT02226822) comprises two similar prospective observational studies of 15 992 people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy in 38 countries across six regions (Africa, Americas, South-East Asia, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe and Western Pacific). Data were collected using a standardized case report form. Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were measured according to standard clinical practice in each country, and factors associated with poor glycaemic control (HbA1c >8.0%) were evaluated using hierarchical regression models. RESULTS: HbA1c levels were available for 80.9% of patients (across-region range [ARR] 57.5%-97.5%); 92.2% (ARR 59.2%-99.1%) of patients had either HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose levels available. The mean HbA1c was 8.3% (ARR 7.9%-8.7%). In total, 26.7% of patients had an HbA1c level ≥9.0%, with the highest proportions in South-East Asia (35.6%). Factors associated with having HbA1c >8.0% at initiation of second-line therapy included low education level, low country income, and longer time since T2D diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The poor levels of glycaemic control at initiation of second-line therapy suggest that intensification of glucose-lowering treatment is delayed in many patients with T2D. In some countries, HbA1c levels are not routinely measured. These findings highlight an urgent need for interventions to improve monitoring and management of glycaemic control worldwide, particularly in lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries.

Treatment patterns and associated factors in 14 668 people with type 2 diabetes initiating a second-line therapy: Results from the global DISCOVER study programme.

AIM: To evaluate treatment data from DISCOVER (NCT02322762 and NCT02226822), a global, prospective, observational study programme of patients with type 2 diabetes initiating a second-line glucose-lowering therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were collected using a standardized case report form. First- and second-line treatments were assessed in 14 668 patients from 37 countries across six regions. Among patients prescribed first-line metformin monotherapy, Firth logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with second-line treatment choices. RESULTS: The most common first-line therapies were metformin monotherapy (57.9%) and combinations of metformin with a sulphonylurea (14.6%). The most common second-line therapies were combinations of metformin with other agents (72.2%), including dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors (25.1%) or sulphonylureas (21.3%). Among patients prescribed first-line metformin monotherapy, the most common second-line therapies were combinations of metformin with a DPP-4 inhibitor [32.8%; across-region range (ARR): 2.4%-51.3%] or a sulphonylurea (30.0%; ARR: 18.3%-63.6%); only a few patients received combinations of metformin with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (6.7%; ARR: 0.0%-10.8%) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (1.9%; ARR: 0.1%-4.5%). Both clinical and non-medical factors were associated with choice of second-line therapy after metformin monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer patients than expected received metformin monotherapy at first line, and the use of newer therapies at second line was uncommon in some regions of the world. Patients' socioeconomic status was associated with treatment patterns, suggesting that therapy choices are influenced by cost and access.

Lower Risk of Heart Failure and Death in Patients Initiated on Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors Versus Other Glucose-Lowering Drugs: The CVD-REAL Study (Comparative Effectiveness of Cardiovascular Outcomes in New Users of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors).

BACKGROUND: Reduction in cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) was recently reported with the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) empagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who have atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We compared HHF and death in patients newly initiated on any SGLT-2i versus other glucose-lowering drugs in 6 countries to determine if these benefits are seen in real-world practice and across SGLT-2i class. METHODS: Data were collected via medical claims, primary care/hospital records, and national registries from the United States, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Propensity score for SGLT-2i initiation was used to match treatment groups. Hazard ratios for HHF, death, and their combination were estimated by country and pooled to determine weighted effect size. Death data were not available for Germany. RESULTS: After propensity matching, there were 309 056 patients newly initiated on either SGLT-2i or other glucose-lowering drugs (154 528 patients in each treatment group). Canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin accounted for 53%, 42%, and 5% of the total exposure time in the SGLT-2i class, respectively. Baseline characteristics were balanced between the 2 groups. There were 961 HHF cases during 190 164 person-years follow-up (incidence rate, 0.51/100 person-years). Of 215 622 patients in the United States, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, death occurred in 1334 (incidence rate, 0.87/100 person-years), and HHF or death in 1983 (incidence rate, 1.38/100 person-years). Use of SGLT-2i, versus other glucose-lowering drugs, was associated with lower rates of HHF (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.73; P<0.001); death (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.57; P<0.001); and HHF or death (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.60; P<0.001) with no significant heterogeneity by country. CONCLUSIONS: In this large multinational study, treatment with SGLT-2i versus other glucose-lowering drugs was associated with a lower risk of HHF and death, suggesting that the benefits seen with empagliflozin in a randomized trial may be a class effect applicable to a broad population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in real-world practice. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02993614.

Changes in HbA1c and weight, and treatment persistence, over the 18 months following initiation of second-line therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: results from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Intensification of metformin monotherapy with additional glucose-lowering drugs is often required in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study evaluated changes in HbA1c and weight, as well as treatment persistence, associated with different second-line therapies used in UK clinical practice. METHODS: The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used to identify patients with T2D who initiated second-line therapy after metformin monotherapy between 1 August 2013 and 14 June 2016. Treatment persistence and changes in HbA1c and weight were assessed at 6-month intervals up to 18 months. RESULTS: In total, 9097 patients (mean age 61.2 years, 57.2% men, mean [standard deviation] HbA1c 9.0% [1.8]/ 75 mmol/mol [19.7]) were included in the analysis, with a median 2.3 years between initiating metformin monotherapy and initiating second-line therapy. Patients were stratified according to second-line therapy: metformin in combination with sulfonylurea (SU; n = 4655 [51.2%]), a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4 inhibitor; n = 2899 [31.9%]), or a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2 inhibitor; n = 441 [4.9%]) or other therapies (all other second-line treatments; n = 1102 [12.1%]). At 18 months, the cumulative proportion of patients changing treatment was lowest for those who received metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor (42.3%), followed by patients on metformin plus SU or metformin plus a DPP-4 inhibitor (46.8%). HbA1c reductions were seen with all second-line therapies, with an overall mean (standard error) reduction of -1.23% (0.05)/-13.4 mmol/mol (0.5). Changes were directly, but not linearly, related to baseline HbA1c and were greater in those with higher HbA1c at baseline. Weight loss from baseline was greatest in patients treated with metformin plus either an SGLT-2 inhibitor (-4.2 kg) or a DPP-4 inhibitor (-1.5 kg). The highest proportion of patients who achieved the composite outcome of HbA1c reduction ≥ 0.5%, body weight loss ≥ 2.0 kg and treatment persistence for 18 months was observed in those receiving metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor (36.5%). CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based cohort, all second-line therapies added to metformin monotherapy improved glycaemic control, but the lowest treatment change/discontinuation rate and most sustained weight loss was seen with patients receiving metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor.