Landscape-scale forest cover drives the predictability of forest regeneration across the Neotropics.

Abandonment of agricultural lands promotes the global expansion of secondary forests, which are critical for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Such roles largely depend, however, on two essential successional attributes, trajectory and recovery rate, which are expected to depend on landscape-scale forest cover in nonlinear ways. Using a multi-scale approach and a large vegetation dataset (843 plots, 3511 tree species) from 22 secondary forest chronosequences distributed across the Neotropics, we show that successional trajectories of woody plant species richness, stem density and basal area are less predictable in landscapes (4 km radius) with intermediate (40-60%) forest cover than in landscapes with high (greater than 60%) forest cover. This supports theory suggesting that high spatial and environmental heterogeneity in intermediately deforested landscapes can increase the variation of key ecological factors for forest recovery (e.g. seed dispersal and seedling recruitment), increasing the uncertainty of successional trajectories. Regarding the recovery rate, only species richness is positively related to forest cover in relatively small (1 km radius) landscapes. These findings highlight the importance of using a spatially explicit landscape approach in restoration initiatives and suggest that these initiatives can be more effective in more forested landscapes, especially if implemented across spatial extents of 1-4 km radius.

Food sovereignty: an alternative paradigm for poverty reduction and biodiversity conservation in Latin America.

Strong feedback between global biodiversity loss and persistent, extreme rural poverty are major challenges in the face of concurrent food, energy, and environmental crises. This paper examines the role of industrial agricultural intensification and market integration as exogenous socio-ecological drivers of biodiversity loss and poverty traps in Latin America. We then analyze the potential of a food sovereignty framework, based on protecting the viability of a diverse agroecological matrix while supporting rural livelihoods and global food production. We review several successful examples of this approach, including ecological land reform in Brazil, agroforestry, milpa, and the uses of wild varieties in smallholder systems in Mexico and Central America. We highlight emergent research directions that will be necessary to assess the potential of the food sovereignty model to promote both biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction.