Preventing extreme polarization of political attitudes.

Extreme polarization can undermine democracy by making compromise impossible and transforming politics into a zero-sum game. "Ideological polarization"-the extent to which political views are widely dispersed-is already strong among elites, but less so among the general public [N. McCarty, Polarization: What Everyone Needs to Know, 2019, pp. 50-68]. Strong mutual distrust and hostility between Democrats and Republicans in the United States, combined with the elites' already strong ideological polarization, could lead to increasing ideological polarization among the public. The paper addresses two questions: 1) Is there a level of ideological polarization above which polarization feeds upon itself to become a runaway process? 2) If so, what policy interventions could prevent such dangerous positive feedback loops? To explore these questions, we present an agent-based model of ideological polarization that differentiates between the tendency for two actors to interact ("exposure") and how they respond when interactions occur, positing that interaction between similar actors reduces their difference, while interaction between dissimilar actors increases their difference. Our analysis explores the effects on polarization of different levels of tolerance to other views, responsiveness to other views, exposure to dissimilar actors, multiple ideological dimensions, economic self-interest, and external shocks. The results suggest strategies for preventing, or at least slowing, the development of extreme polarization.

Spatially distributed infection increases viral load in a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 lung infection.

A key question in SARS-CoV-2 infection is why viral loads and patient outcomes vary dramatically across individuals. Because spatial-temporal dynamics of viral spread and immune response are challenging to study in vivo, we developed Spatial Immune Model of Coronavirus (SIMCoV), a scalable computational model that simulates hundreds of millions of lung cells, including respiratory epithelial cells and T cells. SIMCoV replicates viral growth dynamics observed in patients and shows how spatially dispersed infections can lead to increased viral loads. The model also shows how the timing and strength of the T cell response can affect viral persistence, oscillations, and control. By incorporating spatial interactions, SIMCoV provides a parsimonious explanation for the dramatically different viral load trajectories among patients by varying only the number of initial sites of infection and the magnitude and timing of the T cell immune response. When the branching airway structure of the lung is explicitly represented, we find that virus spreads faster than in a 2D layer of epithelial cells, but much more slowly than in an undifferentiated 3D grid or in a well-mixed differential equation model. These results illustrate how realistic, spatially explicit computational models can improve understanding of within-host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The Surprising Creativity of Digital Evolution: A Collection of Anecdotes from the Evolutionary Computation and Artificial Life Research Communities.

Evolution provides a creative fount of complex and subtle adaptations that often surprise the scientists who discover them. However, the creativity of evolution is not limited to the natural world: Artificial organisms evolving in computational environments have also elicited surprise and wonder from the researchers studying them. The process of evolution is an algorithmic process that transcends the substrate in which it occurs. Indeed, many researchers in the field of digital evolution can provide examples of how their evolving algorithms and organisms have creatively subverted their expectations or intentions, exposed unrecognized bugs in their code, produced unexpectedly adaptations, or engaged in behaviors and outcomes, uncannily convergent with ones found in nature. Such stories routinely reveal surprise and creativity by evolution in these digital worlds, but they rarely fit into the standard scientific narrative. Instead they are often treated as mere obstacles to be overcome, rather than results that warrant study in their own right. Bugs are fixed, experiments are refocused, and one-off surprises are collapsed into a single data point. The stories themselves are traded among researchers through oral tradition, but that mode of information transmission is inefficient and prone to error and outright loss. Moreover, the fact that these stories tend to be shared only among practitioners means that many natural scientists do not realize how interesting and lifelike digital organisms are and how natural their evolution can be. To our knowledge, no collection of such anecdotes has been published before. This article is the crowd-sourced product of researchers in the fields of artificial life and evolutionary computation who have provided first-hand accounts of such cases. It thus serves as a written, fact-checked collection of scientifically important and even entertaining stories. In doing so we also present here substantial evidence that the existence and importance of evolutionary surprises extends beyond the natural world, and may indeed be a universal property of all complex evolving systems.

Strategic aspects of cyberattack, attribution, and blame.

Cyber conflict is now a common and potentially dangerous occurrence. The target typically faces a strategic choice based on its ability to attribute the attack to a specific perpetrator and whether it has a viable punishment at its disposal. We present a game-theoretic model, in which the best strategic choice for the victim depends on the vulnerability of the attacker, the knowledge level of the victim, payoffs for different outcomes, and the beliefs of each player about their opponent. The resulting blame game allows analysis of four policy-relevant questions: the conditions under which peace (i.e., no attacks) is stable, when attacks should be tolerated, the consequences of asymmetric technical attribution capabilities, and when a mischievous third party or an accident can undermine peace. Numerous historical examples illustrate how the theory applies to cases of cyber or kinetic conflict involving the United States, Russia, China, Japan, North Korea, Estonia, Israel, Iran, and Syria.

A spatial model of the efficiency of T cell search in the influenza-infected lung.

Emerging strains of influenza, such as avian H5N1 and 2009 pandemic H1N1, are more virulent than seasonal H1N1 influenza, yet the underlying mechanisms for these differences are not well understood. Subtle differences in how a given strain interacts with the immune system are likely a key factor in determining virulence. One aspect of the interaction is the ability of T cells to locate the foci of the infection in time to prevent uncontrolled expansion. Here, we develop an agent based spatial model to focus on T cell migration from lymph nodes through the vascular system to sites of infection. We use our model to investigate whether different strains of influenza modulate this process. We calibrate the model using viral and chemokine secretion rates we measure in vitro together with values taken from literature. The spatial nature of the model reveals unique challenges for T cell recruitment that are not apparent in standard differential equation models. In this model comparing three influenza viruses, plaque expansion is governed primarily by the replication rate of the virus strain, and the efficiency of the T cell search-and-kill is limited by the density of infected epithelial cells in each plaque. Thus for each virus there is a different threshold of T cell search time above which recruited T cells are unable to control further expansion. Future models could use this relationship to more accurately predict control of the infection.

Encrypted data-sharing for preserving privacy in wastewater-based epidemiology.

The rapidly expanding use of wastewater for public health surveillance requires new strategies to protect privacy rights, while data are collected at increasingly discrete geospatial scales, i.e., city, neighborhood, campus, and building-level. Data collected at high geospatial resolution can inform on labile, short-lived biomarkers, thereby making wastewater-derived data both more actionable and more likely to cause privacy concerns and stigmatization of subpopulations. Additionally, data sharing restrictions among neighboring cities and communities can complicate efforts to balance public health protections with citizens' privacy. Here, we have created an encrypted framework that facilitates the sharing of sensitive population health data among entities that lack trust for one another (e.g., between adjacent municipalities with different governance of health monitoring and data sharing). We demonstrate the utility of this approach with two real-world cases. Our results show the feasibility of sharing encrypted data between two municipalities and a laboratory, while performing secure private computations for wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) with high precision, fast speeds, and low data costs. This framework is amenable to other computations used by WBE researchers including population normalized mass loads, fecal indicator normalizations, and quality control measures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Wastewater Surveillance System shows ∼8 % of the records attributed to collection before the wastewater treatment plant, illustrating an opportunity to further expand currently limited community-level sampling and public health surveillance through security and responsible data-sharing as outlined here.

Challenges in cybersecurity: Lessons from biological defense systems.

Defending against novel, repeated, or unpredictable attacks, while avoiding attacks on the 'self', are the central problems of both mammalian immune systems and computer systems. Both systems have been studied in great detail, but with little exchange of information across the different disciplines. Here, we present a conceptual framework for structured comparisons across the fields of biological immunity and cybersecurity, by framing the context of defense, considering different (combinations of) defensive strategies, and evaluating defensive performance. Throughout this paper, we pose open questions for further exploration. We hope to spark the interdisciplinary discovery of general principles of optimal defense, which can be understood and applied in biological immunity, cybersecurity, and other defensive realms.

Higher level of replication efficiency of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza virus than those of seasonal and avian strains: kinetics from epithelial cell culture and computational modeling.

The pathogenicity and transmission of influenza A viruses are likely determined in part by replication efficiency in human cells, which is the net effect of complex virus-host interactions. H5N1 avian, H1N1 seasonal, and H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus strains were compared by infecting human differentiated bronchial epithelial cells in air-liquid interface cultures at relatively low virus particle/cell ratios. Differential equation and computational models were used to characterize the in vitro kinetic behaviors of the three strains. The models were calibrated by fitting experimental data in order to estimate difficult-to-measure parameters. Both models found marked differences in the relative values of p, the virion production rate per cell, and R(0), an index of the spread of infection through the monolayer, with the values for the strains in the following rank order (from greatest to least): pandemic strain, followed by seasonal strain, followed by avian strain, as expected. In the differential equation model, which treats virus and cell populations as well mixed, R(0) and p varied proportionately for all 3 strains, consistent with a primary role for productivity. In the spatially explicit computational model, R(0) and p also varied proportionately except that R(0) derived for the pandemic strain was reduced, consistent with constrained viral spread imposed by multiple host defenses, including mucus and paracrine antiviral effects. This synergistic experimental-computational strategy provides relevant parameters for identifying and phenotyping potential pandemic strains.

Liquid brains, solid brains.

Cognitive networks have evolved a broad range of solutions to the problem of gathering, storing and responding to information. Some of these networks are describable as static sets of neurons linked in an adaptive web of connections. These are 'solid' networks, with a well-defined and physically persistent architecture. Other systems are formed by sets of agents that exchange, store and process information but without persistent connections or move relative to each other in physical space. We refer to these networks that lack stable connections and static elements as 'liquid' brains, a category that includes ant and termite colonies, immune systems and some microbiomes and slime moulds. What are the key differences between solid and liquid brains, particularly in their cognitive potential, ability to solve particular problems and environments, and information-processing strategies? To answer this question requires a new, integrative framework. This article is part of the theme issue 'Liquid brains, solid brains: How distributed cognitive architectures process information'.

How does mobility help distributed systems compute?

Brains are composed of connected neurons that compute by transmitting signals. The neurons are generally fixed in space, but the communication patterns that enable information processing change rapidly. By contrast, other biological systems, such as ant colonies, bacterial colonies, slime moulds and immune systems, process information using agents that communicate locally while moving through physical space. We refer to systems in which agents are strongly connected and immobile as solid, and to systems in which agents are not hardwired to each other and can move freely as liquid. We ask how collective computation depends on agent movement. A liquid cellular automaton (LCA) demonstrates the effect of movement and communication locality on consensus problems. A simple mathematical model predicts how these properties of the LCA affect how quickly information propagates through the system. While solid brains allow complex network structures to move information over long distances, mobility provides an alternative way for agents to transport information when long-range connectivity is expensive or infeasible. Our results show how simple mobile agents solve global information processing tasks more effectively than similar systems that are stationary. This article is part of the theme issue 'Liquid brains, solid brains: How distributed cognitive architectures process information'.

Distributed Adaptive Search in T Cells: Lessons From Ants.

There are striking similarities between the strategies ant colonies use to forage for food and immune systems use to search for pathogens. Searchers (ants and cells) use the appropriate combination of random and directed motion, direct and indirect agent-agent interactions, and traversal of physical structures to solve search problems in a variety of environments. An effective immune response requires immune cells to search efficiently and effectively for diverse types of pathogens in different tissues and organs, just as different species of ants have evolved diverse search strategies to forage effectively for a variety of resources in a variety of habitats. Successful T cell search is required to initiate the adaptive immune response in lymph nodes and to eradicate pathogens at sites of infection in peripheral tissue. Ant search strategies suggest novel predictions about T cell search. In both systems, the distribution of targets in time and space determines the most effective search strategy. We hypothesize that the ability of searchers to sense and adapt to dynamic targets and environmental conditions enhances search effectiveness through adjustments to movement and communication patterns. We also suggest that random motion is a more important component of search strategies than is generally recognized. The behavior we observe in ants reveals general design principles and constraints that govern distributed adaptive search in a wide variety of complex systems, particularly the immune system.

Scaling theory for information networks.

Networks distribute energy, materials and information to the components of a variety of natural and human-engineered systems, including organisms, brains, the Internet and microprocessors. Distribution networks enable the integrated and coordinated functioning of these systems, and they also constrain their design. The similar hierarchical branching networks observed in organisms and microprocessors are striking, given that the structure of organisms has evolved via natural selection, while microprocessors are designed by engineers. Metabolic scaling theory (MST) shows that the rate at which networks deliver energy to an organism is proportional to its mass raised to the 3/4 power. We show that computational systems are also characterized by nonlinear network scaling and use MST principles to characterize how information networks scale, focusing on how MST predicts properties of clock distribution networks in microprocessors. The MST equations are modified to account for variation in the size and density of transistors and terminal wires in microprocessors. Based on the scaling of the clock distribution network, we predict a set of trade-offs and performance properties that scale with chip size and the number of transistors. However, there are systematic deviations between power requirements on microprocessors and predictions derived directly from MST. These deviations are addressed by augmenting the model to account for decentralized flow in some microprocessor networks (e.g. in logic networks). More generally, we hypothesize a set of constraints between the size, power and performance of networked information systems including transistors on chips, hosts on the Internet and neurons in the brain.

Modeling somatic evolution in tumorigenesis.

Tumorigenesis in humans is thought to be a multistep process where certain mutations confer a selective advantage, allowing lineages derived from the mutated cell to outcompete other cells. Although molecular cell biology has substantially advanced cancer research, our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics that govern tumorigenesis is limited. This paper analyzes the computational implications of cancer progression presented by Hanahan and Weinberg in The Hallmarks of Cancer. We model the complexities of tumor progression as a small set of underlying rules that govern the transformation of normal cells to tumor cells. The rules are implemented in a stochastic multistep model. The model predicts that (i) early-onset cancers proceed through a different sequence of mutation acquisition than late-onset cancers; (ii) tumor heterogeneity varies with acquisition of genetic instability, mutation pathway, and selective pressures during tumorigenesis; (iii) there exists an optimal initial telomere length which lowers cancer incidence and raises time of cancer onset; and (iv) the ability to initiate angiogenesis is an important stage-setting mutation, which is often exploited by other cells. The model offers insight into how the sequence of acquired mutations affects the timing and cellular makeup of the resulting tumor and how the cellular-level population dynamics drive neoplastic evolution.

Energy and time determine scaling in biological and computer designs.

Metabolic rate in animals and power consumption in computers are analogous quantities that scale similarly with size. We analyse vascular systems of mammals and on-chip networks of microprocessors, where natural selection and human engineering, respectively, have produced systems that minimize both energy dissipation and delivery times. Using a simple network model that simultaneously minimizes energy and time, our analysis explains empirically observed trends in the scaling of metabolic rate in mammals and power consumption and performance in microprocessors across several orders of magnitude in size. Just as the evolutionary transitions from unicellular to multicellular animals in biology are associated with shifts in metabolic scaling, our model suggests that the scaling of power and performance will change as computer designs transition to decentralized multi-core and distributed cyber-physical systems. More generally, a single energy-time minimization principle may govern the design of many complex systems that process energy, materials and information.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'.

Phosphorylations of Serines 21/9 in Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3α/ß Are Not Required for Cell Lineage Commitment or WNT Signaling in the Normal Mouse Intestine.

The WNT signalling pathway controls many developmental processes and plays a key role in maintenance of intestine renewal and homeostasis. Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3 (GSK3) is an important component of the WNT pathway and is involved in regulating ß-catenin stability and expression of WNT target genes. The mechanisms underpinning GSK3 regulation in this context are not completely understood, with some evidence suggesting this occurs through inhibitory N-terminal serine phosphorylation in a similar way to GSK3 inactivation in insulin signaling. To investigate this in a physiologically relevant context, we have analysed the intestinal phenotype of GSK3 knockin mice in which N-terminal serines 21/9 of GSK3α/ß have been mutated to non-phosphorylatable alanine residues. We show that these knockin mutations have very little effect on overall intestinal integrity, cell lineage commitment, ß-catenin localization or WNT target gene expression although a small increase in apoptosis at villi tips is observed. Our results provide in vivo evidence that GSK3 is regulated through mechanisms independent of N-terminal serine phosphorylation in order for ß-catenin to be stabilised.

Interactions of vitamin D3 with bovine beta-lactoglobulin A and beta-casein.

It is of nutritional significance to fortify processed dairy products (e.g., cheese, yogurt, and ice cream) with vitamin D3; however, the inherent complexity of these foods may influence the stability and bioavailability of this nutrient. In the present study, the interactions of vitamin D3 with beta-lactoglobulin A and beta-casein were investigated under various environmental conditions (i.e., pH and ionic strength) using fluorescence and circular dichroism spectroscopic techniques. The results indicated that vitamin D3 was bound to both beta-lactoglobulin A and beta-casein depending on the solution conditions. The apparent dissociation constants ranged from 0.02 to 0.29 microM for beta-lactoglobulin A, whereas the beta-casein apparent dissociation constants ranged from 0.06 to 0.26 microM. The apparent mole ratios were also comparable, i.e., 0.51-2.04 and 1.16-2.05 mol of vitamin D3 were bound per mole of beta-lactoglobulin A and beta-casein, respectively. It was concluded that these interactions may strongly influence vitamin D3 stability and, hence, bioavailability in processed dairy products.

Cancer prevention strategies that address the evolutionary dynamics of neoplastic cells: simulating benign cell boosters and selection for chemosensitivity.

Cells in neoplasms evolve by natural selection. Traditional cytotoxic chemotherapies add further selection pressure to the evolution of neoplastic cells, thereby selecting for cells resistant to the therapies. An alternative proposal is a benign cell booster. Rather than trying to kill the highly dysplastic or malignant cells directly, a benign cell booster increases the fitness of the more benign cells, which may be either normal or benign clones, so that they may outcompete more advanced or malignant cells in a neoplasm. In silico simulations of benign cell boosters in neoplasms with evolving clones show benign cell boosters to be effective at destroying advanced or malignant cells and preventing relapse even when applied late in progression. These results are conditional on the benign cell boosters giving a competitive advantage to the benign cells in the neoplasm. Furthermore, the benign cell boosters must be applied over a long period of time in order for the benign cells to drive the dysplastic cells to extinction or near extinction. Most importantly, benign cell boosters based on this strategy must target a characteristic of the benign cells that is causally related to the benign state to avoid relapse. Another promising strategy is to boost cells that are sensitive to a cytotoxin, thereby selecting for chemosensitive cells, and then apply the toxin. Effective therapeutic and prevention strategies will have to alter the competitive dynamics of a neoplasm to counter progression toward invasion, metastasis, and death.

Email networks and the spread of computer viruses.

Many computer viruses spread via electronic mail, making use of computer users' email address books as a source for email addresses of new victims. These address books form a directed social network of connections between individuals over which the virus spreads. Here we investigate empirically the structure of this network using data drawn from a large computer installation, and discuss the implications of this structure for the understanding and prevention of computer virus epidemics.

A formal framework for positive and negative detection schemes.

In anomaly detection, the normal behavior of a process is characterized by a model, and deviations from the model are called anomalies. In behavior-based approaches to anomaly detection, the model of normal behavior is constructed from an observed sample of normally occurring patterns. Models of normal behavior can represent either the set of allowed patterns (positive detection) or the set of anomalous patterns (negative detection). A formal framework is given for analyzing the tradeoffs between positive and negative detection schemes in terms of the number of detectors needed to maximize coverage. For realistically sized problems, the universe of possible patterns is too large to represent exactly (in either the positive or negative scheme). Partial matching rules generalize the set of allowable (or unallowable) patterns, and the choice of matching rule affects the tradeoff between positive and negative detection. A new match rule is introduced, called r-chunks, and the generalizations induced by different partial matching rules are characterized in terms of the crossover closure. Permutations of the representation can be used to achieve more precise discrimination between normal and anomalous patterns. Quantitative results are given for the recognition ability of contiguous-bits matching together with permutations.