An evolved interpretation of Austin Bradford Hill's causal viewpoints and their influence on epidemiologic methods.

In 1965, Sir Austin Bradford Hill articulated nine viewpoints for evaluating whether a body of evidence about the relationship between an exposure and outcome should be interpreted causally. In this commentary, we highlight a selection of the ways in which these viewpoints have had an impact on the field of epidemiology in terms of methods development, study design, and interpretation of results. Additionally, we opine on how the viewpoints relate to our understanding of basic epidemiologic concepts - for example, our choice of absolute or relative measures of effect, our evolving understanding of the role of context in the generalizability of study results, and modern epistemologies for causal inference (i.e., the potential outcomes framework and graphical causal models). Hill cautioned his audience that evidence should be weighed according to the policy choice it would inform and the context in which that policy would be implemented. We root our remarks in considerations of the public health impact of our conclusions about the causal nature of an observed relationship.

It's not all about residual confounding: a plea for QBA for epidemiologic researchers and educators.

We spend a great deal of time on confounding in our teaching, in our methods development and in our assessment of study results. This may give the impression that uncontrolled confounding is the biggest problem that observational epidemiology faces, when in fact, other sources of bias such as selection bias, measurement error, missing data, and misalignment of zero time may often (especially if they are all present in a single study) lead to a stronger deviation from the truth. Compared to the amount of time we spend teaching how to address confounding in a data analysis, we spend relatively little time teaching methods for simulating confounding (and other sources of bias) to learn their impact and develop plans to mitigate or quantify the bias. We review a paper by Desai et al that uses simulation methods to quantify the impact of an unmeasured confounder when it is completely missing or when a proxy of the confounder is measured. We use this article to discuss how we can use simulations of sources of bias to ensure we generate better and more valid study estimates, and we discuss the importance of simulating realistic datasets with plausible bias structures to guide data collection. If an advanced life form exists outside of our current universe and they came to earth with the goal of scouring the published epidemiologic literature to understand what the biggest problem epidemiologists have, they would quickly discover that the limitations section of publications would provide them with all the information they needed. And most likely what they would conclude is that the biggest problem that we face is uncontrolled confounding. It seems to be an obsession of ours.

Effective and inclusive mentorship in the field of epidemiology.

Quality mentoring improves outcomes across career stages, including a sense of belonging, persistence, and productivity. However, the status quo in mentorship culture-including in epidemiology-is an ad hoc approach. This pervasive culture adversely affects individual mentees and the entire scientific research enterprise. Public health disciplines such as epidemiology bear a distinct responsibility to foster an inclusive mentorship culture, ensuring the next generation is equipped not only with methodological expertise but also with a commitment to diversity, equity, inclusion, and the principles of public health. In this commentary, we outline the primary attributes of effective mentors, core competencies, and the evidence base underlying how mentors can improve their skills with comprehensive training. We call on mentors, as well as institutional leaders, to make personal and structural changes, such as requiring mentor training, implementing evidence-based tools (e.g., individual development plans), and regularly evaluating mentorship quality. Institutional leaders can remove barriers (e.g., costs to enroll in mentor training) and facilitate mentorship in non-monetary ways, for example, by making it a formal part of the promotion process. Mentors and leaders must champion these changes, fortifying not only individual career trajectories but also advancing scientific integrity, inclusivity, and justice within the epidemiologic community.

Doubly marginalized: the interplay of racism and disability in outcomes for minoritized people with Down syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Intersectionality, or the multidimensional influence of social identity and systems of power, may drive increased morbidity and mortality for adults of color with Down syndrome. We documented racial and ethnic differences in death and hospitalizations among Medicaid enrolled adults with Down syndrome and assessed interaction of racial-ethnic group and Down syndrome. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 119,325 adults with Down syndrome and >3.2 million adults without intellectual disability enrolled in Medicare at any point from 2011-2019. We calculated age-adjusted mortality and hospitalization rates by racial-ethnic group among those with Down syndrome. We examined additive interaction between Down syndrome and racial and ethnic group on mortality and hospitalization rates. RESULTS: Among those with Down syndrome, age-adjusted mortality rate did not differ between Black and White racial groups (rate ratio: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.92, 1.01) while mortality rate was lower for Pacific Islander (0.80), Asian (0.71), Native (0.77), and Mixed-race groups (0.50). Hospitalization rates were higher for all marginalized groups compared to the White group. When assessing the interaction between racial-ethnic group and Down syndrome, Black, Native Americans, and Mixed-race groups exhibited a negative additive interaction for mortality rate and all groups except Native Americans exhibited positive additive interaction for hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Increased hospitalization rates for adults with Down syndrome from marginalized racial and ethnic groups suggest worse health and healthcare. Similar mortality rates across racial and ethnic groups may result from increased infant mortality rate in marginalized groups with Down syndrome leading to reduced mortality among those surviving to adulthood.

Imaging CAR-NK cells targeted to HER2 ovarian cancer with human sodium-iodide symporter-based positron emission tomography.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) cell therapies utilize CARs to redirect immune cells towards cancer cells expressing specific antigens like human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Despite their potential, CAR T cell therapies exhibit variable response rates and adverse effects in some patients. Non-invasive molecular imaging can aid in predicting patient outcomes by tracking infused cells post-administration. CAR-T cells are typically autologous, increasing manufacturing complexity and costs. An alternative approach involves developing CAR natural killer (CAR-NK) cells as an off-the-shelf allogeneic product. In this study, we engineered HER2-targeted CAR-NK cells co-expressing the positron emission tomography (PET) reporter gene human sodium-iodide symporter (NIS) and assessed their therapeutic efficacy and PET imaging capability in a HER2 ovarian cancer mouse model.NK-92 cells were genetically modified to express a HER2-targeted CAR, the bioluminescence imaging reporter Antares, and NIS. HER2-expressing ovarian cancer cells were engineered to express the bioluminescence reporter Firefly luciferase (Fluc). Co-culture experiments demonstrated significantly enhanced cytotoxicity of CAR-NK cells compared to naive NK cells. In vivo studies involving mice with Fluc-expressing tumors revealed that those treated with CAR-NK cells exhibited reduced tumor burden and prolonged survival compared to controls. Longitudinal bioluminescence imaging demonstrated stable signals from CAR-NK cells over time. PET imaging using the NIS-targeted tracer 18F-tetrafluoroborate ([18F]TFB) showed significantly higher PET signals in mice treated with NIS-expressing CAR-NK cells.Overall, our study showcases the therapeutic potential of HER2-targeted CAR-NK cells in an aggressive ovarian cancer model and underscores the feasibility of using human-derived PET reporter gene imaging to monitor these cells non-invasively in patients.

Psychiatric morbidity across the life course and provoked vulvodynia: is it dependent upon the presence of non-stress-related immune dysfunction?

BACKGROUND: Vulvodynia impacts up to 8% of women by age 40, and these women may have a more compromised immune system than women with no vulvar pain history. AIM: Given that psychiatric morbidity is associated with vulvodynia and is known to activate immune inflammatory pathways in the brain and systemically, we sought to determine whether the association between psychiatric morbidity and vulvar pain was independent of or dependent upon the presence of immune-related conditions. METHODS: Women born in Sweden between 1973 and 1996 with localized provoked vulvodynia (N76.3) and/or vaginismus (N94.2 or F52.5) diagnosed between 2001 and 2018 were matched to two women from the same birth year with no vulvar pain. International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-9 or -10 codes) were used to identify women with a history of depression, anxiety, attempted suicide, neurotic disorders, stress-related disorders, behavioral syndromes, personality disorders, psychotic disorders, or chemical dependencies, as well as a spectrum of immune-related conditions. The Swedish National Prescribed Drug Register was used to identify women with filled prescriptions of antidepressants or anxiolytics. OUTCOMES: Vulvodynia, vaginismus, or both were outcomes assessed in relation to psychiatric morbidity. RESULTS: Women with vulvodynia, vaginismus, or both, relative to those without vulvar pain, had adjusted odds ratios between 1.4 and 2.3, with CIs highly compatible with harmful effects. When we assessed women with and those without a lifetime history of immune-related conditions separately, we also observed elevated odds ratios in both groups for mood, anxiety, and neurotic and stress disorders. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Documenting psychiatric impairment as a cause or consequence of vulvodynia is critical in clinical practice because psychiatric conditions may impact treatment efficacy. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS: Strengths of this study include a data source that represents the entire population of women in Sweden that is known to be highly accurate because Sweden provides universal healthcare. Limitations include difficulty in making an accurate assessment of temporality between psychiatric morbidity and the first onset of vulvar pain. In addition, because Swedish registry data have limited information on lifestyle, behavioral, and anthropomorphic factors such as smoking, diet, physical activity, and obesity, these conditions could not be assessed as confounders of psychiatric morbidity and vulvar pain. CONCLUSIONS: Immune pathways by which women with psychiatric conditions increase their risk of vulvar pain could be independent from other immune pathways.

Does Engagement in HIV Care Affect Screening, Diagnosis, and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Low- and middle-income countries are facing a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Providing HIV treatment may provide opportunities to increase access to NCD services in under-resourced environments. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with increased screening, diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, or cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A comprehensive search of electronic literature databases for studies published between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2022 yielded 26 studies, describing 13,570 PLWH in SSA, 61% of whom were receiving ART. Random effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) of the risk of diagnosis by ART status and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), where appropriate. ART use was associated with a small but imprecise increase in the odds of diabetes diagnosis (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.71, 1.60) and an increase in the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.42, 3.09). We found minimal data on the association between ART use and screening, treatment, or control of NCDs. Despite a potentially higher NCD risk among PLWH and regional efforts to integrate NCD and HIV care, evidence to support effective care integration models is lacking.

Opioid-related mortality after occupational injury in Washington State: accounting for preinjury opioid use.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of occupational injury and illness on opioid-related mortality while accounting for confounding by preinjury opioid use. METHODS: We employed a retrospective cohort study design using Washington State workers' compensation data for 1994-2000 injuries linked to US Social Security Administration earnings and mortality data and National Death Index (NDI) cause of death data from 1994 to 2018. We categorised injuries as lost-time versus medical-only, where the former involved more than 3 days off work or permanent disability. We determined death status and cause of death from NDI records. We modelled separate Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) and 95% CIs for injured men and women for opioid-related and all drug-related mortality through 2018. We used quantitative bias analysis to account for unmeasured confounding by preinjury opioid use. RESULTS: The hazard of opioid-related mortality was elevated for workers with lost-time relative to medical-only injuries: sHR for men: 1.53, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.66; for women: 1.31, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.48. Accounting for preinjury opioid use, effect sizes were reduced but remained elevated: sHR for men was 1.43, 95% simulation interval (SI) 1.20 to 1.69; for women: 1.27, 95% SI 1.10 to 1.45. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational injuries and illnesses severe enough to require more than 3 days off work are associated with an increase in the hazard of opioid-related mortality. The estimated increase is reduced when we account for preinjury opioid use, but it remains substantial. Reducing work-related injuries and postinjury opioid prescribing and improving employment and income security may decrease opioid-related mortality.

Use of quantitative bias analysis to evaluate single-arm trials with real-world data external controls.

PURPOSE: Use of real-world data (RWD) for external controls added to single-arm trials (SAT) is increasingly prevalent in regulatory submissions. Due to inherent differences in the data-generating mechanisms, biases can arise. This paper aims to illustrate how to use quantitative bias analysis (QBA). METHODS: Advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) serves as an example, where many small subsets of patients with molecular tumor subtypes exist. First, some sources of bias that may occur in oncology when comparing RWD to SAT are described. Second, using a hypothetical immunotherapy agent, a dataset is simulated based on expert input for survival analysis of advanced NSCLC. Finally, we illustrate the impact of three biases: missing confounder, misclassification of exposure, and outcome evaluation. RESULTS: For each simulated scenario, bias was induced by removing or adding data; hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated applying conventional analyses. Estimating the bias-adjusted treatment effect and uncertainty required carefully selecting the bias model and bias factors. Although the magnitude of each biased and bias-adjusted HR appeared moderate in all three hypothetical scenarios, the direction of bias was variable. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that QBA can provide an intuitive framework for bias analysis, providing a key means of challenging assumptions about the evidence. However, the accuracy of bias analysis is itself dependent on correct specification of the bias model and bias factors. Ultimately, study design should reduce bias, but QBA allows us to evaluate the impact of unavoidable bias to assess the quality of the evidence.

CAPABLE: A Scoring System Utilizing Patient-Reported Measures to Evaluate Patient Experience After Mohs Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Patient experience metrics are gaining prominence in health care. We introduce the CAPABLE survey to assess postoperative experiences of Mohs surgery patients. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether CAPABLE scores aligned with overall patient satisfaction in Mohs surgery. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, survey-based study of patients presenting for their first postoperative visit after Mohs surgery. The CAPABLE survey included questions on postoperative instructions, activity limitations, pain control, provider accessibility, and bleeding, followed by 2 overall satisfaction questions taken from the Outpatient and Ambulatory Surgery Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey. The pilot study took place at the University of Texas Dell Medical School (DMS), followed by a validation study ( n = 206) at DMS and Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU). We assessed for correlations between CAPABLE scores and overall satisfaction. RESULTS: In the pilot study ( n = 137), overall CAPABLE scores and scores of individual CAPABLE components correlated positively with overall satisfaction.In the multisite validation study ( n = 206) spanning DMS and OHSU, CAPABLE scores correlated positively with overall satisfaction. CONCLUSION: The CAPABLE survey is a concise tool for assessing specific, actionable components of the postoperative patient experience in Mohs surgery, while correlating with overall patient satisfaction.

Cryptococcal Meningitis and Clinical Outcomes in Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Global View.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PWH). Little is known about CM outcomes and availability of diagnostic and treatment modalities globally. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated CM incidence and all-cause mortality in PWH in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS cohort from 1996 to 2017. We estimated incidence using quasi-Poisson models adjusted for sex, age, calendar year, CD4 cell count (CD4), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) status. Mortality after CM diagnosis was examined using multivariable Cox models. A site survey from 2017 assessed availability of CM diagnostic and treatment modalities. RESULTS: Among 518 852 PWH, there were 3857 cases of CM with an estimated incidence of 1.54 per 1000 person-years. Mortality over a median of 2.6 years of post-CM diagnosis follow-up was 31.6%, with 29% lost to follow-up. In total, 2478 (64%) were diagnosed with CM after ART start with a median of 253 days from ART start to CM diagnosis. Older age (hazard [HR], 1.31 for 50 vs 35 years), lower CD4 (HR, 1.15 for 200 vs 350 cells/mm3), and earlier year of CM diagnosis (HR, 0.51 for 2015 vs 2000) were associated with higher mortality. Of 89 sites, 34% reported access to amphotericin B; 12% had access to flucytosine. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality after CM diagnosis was high. A substantial portion of CM cases occurred after ART start, though incidence and mortality may be higher than reported due to ascertainment bias. Many sites lacked access to recommended CM treatment.

Toward Open and Reproducible Epidemiology.

Starting in the 2010s, researchers in the experimental social sciences rapidly began to adopt increasingly open and reproducible scientific practices. These practices include publicly sharing deidentified data when possible, sharing analytical code, and preregistering study protocols. Empirical evidence from the social sciences suggests such practices are feasible, can improve analytical reproducibility, and can reduce selective reporting. In academic epidemiology, adoption of open-science practices has been slower than in the social sciences (with some notable exceptions, such as registering clinical trials). Epidemiologic studies are often large, complex, conceived after data have already been collected, and difficult to replicate directly by collecting new data. These characteristics make it especially important to ensure their integrity and analytical reproducibility. Open-science practices can also pay immediate dividends to researchers' own work by clarifying scientific reasoning and encouraging well-documented, organized workflows. We consider how established epidemiologists and early-career researchers alike can help midwife a culture of open science in epidemiology through their research practices, mentorship, and editorial activities.

Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Attributable to Tuberculosis: A Microsimulation Study.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but COPD is also a predictor of TB. The excess life-years lost to COPD caused by TB can potentially be saved by screening for and treating TB infection. We examined the number of life-years that could be saved by preventing TB and TB-attributable COPD. We compared the observed (no intervention) and counterfactual microsimulation models constructed from observed rates in the Danish National Patient Registry (covering all Danish hospitals between 1995 and 2014). In the Danish population of TB and COPD-naive individuals (n = 5,206,922), 27,783 persons (0.5%) developed TB. Among those who developed TB, 14,438 (52.0%) developed TB with COPD. Preventing TB saved 186,469 life-years overall. The excess number of life-years lost to TB alone was 7.07 years per person, and the additional number of life-years lost among persons who developed COPD after TB was 4.86 years per person. The life-years lost to TB-associated COPD are substantial, even in regions where TB can be expected to be identified and treated promptly. Prevention of TB could prevent a substantial amount of COPD-related morbidity; the benefit of screening and treatment for TB infection is underestimated by considering morbidity from TB alone.

Preconception Periodontitis and Risk of Spontaneous Abortion in a Prospective Cohort Study.

Few studies have evaluated the association between periodontitis and spontaneous abortion (SAB), and all had limitations. We used data from the Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a prospective preconception cohort study of 3,444 pregnancy planners in the United States and Canada (2019-2022), to address this question. Participants provided self-reported data on periodontitis diagnosis, treatment, and symptoms of severity (i.e., loose teeth) via the enrollment questionnaire. SAB (pregnancy loss at <20 weeks' gestation) was assessed via bimonthly follow-up questionnaires. Participants contributed person-time from the date of a positive pregnancy test to the gestational week of SAB, loss to follow-up, or 20 weeks' gestation, whichever came first. We fitted Cox regression models with weeks of gestation as the time scale to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and we used inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for differential loss to follow-up. We used probabilistic quantitative bias analysis to estimate the magnitude and direction of the effect of exposure misclassification bias on results. In weighted multivariable models, we saw no appreciable association between preconception periodontitis diagnosis (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76, 1.23) or treatment (HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.27) and SAB. A history of loose teeth was positively associated with SAB (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.88, 2.14). Quantitative bias analysis indicated that our findings were biased towards the null but with considerable uncertainty in the bias-adjusted results.

Attrition from Care Among Men Initiating ART in Male-Only Clinics Compared with Men in General Primary Healthcare Clinics in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Matched Propensity Score Analysis.

Men have higher rates of attrition from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs than women. In Khayelitsha, a high HIV prevalence area in South Africa, two public sector primary healthcare clinics offer services, including HIV testing and treatment, exclusively to men. We compared attrition from ART care among men initiating ART at these clinics with male attrition in six general primary healthcare clinics in Khayelitsha. We described baseline characteristics of patients initiating ART at the male and general clinics from 1 January 2014 to 31 March 2018. We used exposure propensity scores (generated based on baseline health and age) to match male clinic patients 1:1 to males at other clinics. The association between attrition (death or loss to follow-up, defined as no visits for nine months) and clinic type was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Follow-up time began at ART initiation and ended at attrition, clinic transfer, or dataset closure. Before matching, patients from male clinics (n = 784) were younger than males from general clinics (n = 2726), median age: 31.2 vs 35.5 years. Those initiating at male clinics had higher median CD4 counts at ART initiation [Male Clinic 1: 329 (IQR 210-431), Male Clinic 2: 364 (IQR 260-536), general clinics 258 (IQR 145-398), cells/mm3]. In the matched analysis (1451 person-years, 1568 patients) patients initiating ART at male clinics had lower attrition (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85). In separate analyses for each of the two male clinics, only the more established male clinic showed a protective effect. Male-only clinics reached younger, healthier men, and had lower ART attrition than general services. These findings support clinic-specific adaptations to create more male-friendly environments.

Detection of Moderate Hepatic Steatosis on Portal Venous Phase Contrast-Enhanced CT: Evaluation Using an Automated Artificial Intelligence Tool.

BACKGROUND. Precontrast CT is an established means of evaluating for hepatic steatosis; postcontrast CT has historically been limited for this purpose. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of portal venous phase postcontrast CT in detecting at least moderate hepatic steatosis using liver and spleen attenuation measurements determined by an automated artificial intelligence (AI) tool. METHODS. This retrospective study included 2917 patients (1381 men, 1536 women; mean age, 56.8 years) who underwent a CT examination that included at least two series through the liver. Examinations were obtained from an AI vendor's data lake of data from 24 centers in one U.S. health care network and 29 centers in one Israeli health care network. An automated deep learning tool extracted liver and spleen attenuation measurements. The reference for at least moderate steatosis was precontrast liver attenuation of less than 40 HU (i.e., estimated liver fat > 15%). A radiologist manually reviewed examinations with outlier AI results to confirm portal venous timing and identify issues impacting attenuation measurements. RESULTS. After outlier review, analysis included 2777 patients with portal venous phase images. Prevalence of at least moderate steatosis was 13.9% (387/2777). Patients without and with at least moderate steatosis, respectively, had mean postcontrast liver attenuation of 104.5 ± 18.1 (SD) HU and 67.1 ± 18.6 HU (p < .001); a mean difference in postcontrast attenuation between the liver and the spleen (hereafter, postcontrast liver-spleen attenuation difference) of -7.6 ± 16.4 (SD) HU and -31.8 ± 20.3 HU (p < .001); and mean liver enhancement of 49.3 ± 15.9 (SD) HU versus 38.6 ± 13.6 HU (p < .001). Diagnostic performance for the detection of at least moderate steatosis was higher for postcontrast liver attenuation (AUC = 0.938) than for the postcontrast liver-spleen attenuation difference (AUC = 0.832) (p < .001). For detection of at least moderate steatosis, postcontrast liver attenuation had sensitivity and specificity of 77.8% and 93.2%, respectively, at less than 80 HU and 90.5% and 78.4%, respectively, at less than 90 HU; the postcontrast liver-spleen attenuation difference had sensitivity and specificity of 71.4% and 79.3%, respectively, at less than -20 HU and 87.0% and 62.1%, respectively, at less than -10 HU. CONCLUSION. Postcontrast liver attenuation outperformed the postcontrast liver-spleen attenuation difference for detecting at least moderate steatosis in a heterogeneous patient sample, as evaluated using an automated AI tool. Splenic attenuation likely is not needed to assess for at least moderate steatosis on postcontrast images. CLINICAL IMPACT. The technique could promote early detection of clinically significant nonalcoholic fatty liver disease through individualized or large-scale opportunistic evaluation.

Associations of inter-annual rainfall decreases with subsequent HIV outcomes for persons with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Periods of droughts can lead to decreased food security, and altered behaviours, potentially affecting outcomes on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among persons with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether decreased rainfall is associated with adverse outcomes among PWH on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: Data were combined from 11 clinical cohorts of PWH in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. Adult PWH who had started ART prior to 01/06/2016 and were in follow-up in the year prior to 01/06/2016 were included. Two-year rainfall from June 2014 to May 2016 at the location of each HIV centre was summed and ranked against historical 2-year rainfall amounts (1981-2016) to give an empirical relative percentile rainfall estimate. The IeDEA-SA and rainfall data were combined using each HIV centre's latitude/longitude. In individual-level analyses, multivariable Cox or generalized estimating equation regression models (GEEs) assessed associations between decreased rainfall versus historical levels and four separate outcomes (mortality, CD4 counts < 200 cells/mm3, viral loads > 400 copies/mL, and > 12-month gaps in follow-up) in the two years following the rainfall period. GEEs were used to investigate the association between relative rainfall and monthly numbers of unique visitors per HIV centre. RESULTS: Among 270,708 PWH across 386 HIV centres (67% female, median age 39 [IQR: 32-46]), lower rainfall than usual was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 1.18 [95%CI: 1.07-1.32] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease) and unsuppressed viral loads (adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [1.01-1.09]). Levels of rainfall were not strongly associated with CD4 counts < 200 cell/mm3 or > 12-month gaps in care. HIV centres in areas with less rainfall than usual had lower numbers of PWH visiting them (adjusted Rate Ratio: 0.80 [0.66-0.98] per 10 percentile rainfall rank decrease). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased rainfall could negatively impact on HIV treatment behaviours and outcomes. Further research is needed to explore the reasons for these effects. Interventions to mitigate the health impact of severe weather events are required.

Long-term aircraft noise exposure and risk of hypertension in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Studies of the association between aircraft noise and hypertension are complicated by inadequate control for potential confounders and a lack of longitudinal assessments, and existing evidence is inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the association between long-term aircraft noise exposure and risk of hypertension among post-menopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trials, an ongoing prospective U.S. METHODS: Day-night average (DNL) and night equivalent sound levels (Lnight) were modeled for 90 U.S. airports from 1995 to 2010 in 5-year intervals using the Aviation Environmental Design Tool and linked to participant geocoded addresses from 1993 to 2010. Participants with modeled exposures ≥45 A-weighted decibels (dB [A]) were considered exposed, and those outside of 45 dB(A) who also did not live in close proximity to unmodeled airports were considered unexposed. Hypertension was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg or inventoried/self-reported antihypertensive medication use. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident hypertension when exposed to DNL or Lnight ≥45 versus <45 dB(A), controlling for sociodemographic, behavioral, and environmental/contextual factors. RESULTS/DISCUSSION: There were 18,783 participants with non-missing DNL exposure and 14,443 with non-missing Lnight exposure at risk of hypertension. In adjusted models, DNL and Lnight ≥45 db(A) were associated with HRs of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93, 1.08) and 1.06 (95%CI: 0.91, 1.24), respectively. There was no evidence supporting a positive exposure-response relationship, and findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. Indications of elevated risk were seen among certain subgroups, such as those living in areas with lower population density (HRinteraction: 0.84; 95%CI: 0.72, 0.98) or nitrogen dioxide concentrations (HRinteraction: 0.82; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.95), which may indicate lower ambient/road traffic noise. Our findings do not suggest a relationship between aircraft noise and incident hypertension among older women in the U.S., though associations in lower ambient noise settings merit further investigation.

Moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of stroke in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: There is inconsistent evidence on the association of moderate alcohol consumption and stroke risk in the general population and is not well studied among U.S. Veterans. Furthermore, it is unclear whether primarily drinking beer, wine, or liquor is associated with a difference in stroke risk. METHODS: The study included 185,323 Million Veteran Program participants who self-reported alcohol consumption on the Lifestyle Survey. Moderate consumption was defined as 1-2 drinks/day and beverage preference of beer, wine or liquor was defined if ≥ 50% of total drinks consumed were from a single type of beverage. Strokes were defined using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes from the participants' electronic health record. RESULTS: The mean (sd) age of the sample was 64 (13) years and 11% were women. We observed 4,339 (94% ischemic; 6% hemorrhagic) strokes over a median follow-up of 5.2 years. In Cox models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, income, body mass index, smoking, exercise, diet, cholesterol, prevalent diabetes, prevalent hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, antihypertensive medication, and diabetes medication, moderate alcohol consumption (1-2 drinks/day) was associated with a 22% lower risk of total stroke compared with never drinking [Hazards ratio (HR) 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 (0.67, 0.92)]. When stratifying by stroke type, we observed a similar protective association with moderate consumption and ischemic stroke [HR (95% CI): 0.76 (0.65, 0.90)], but a non-statistically significant higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke [HR (95% CI): 1.29 (0.64, 2.61)]. We did not observe a difference in ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke risk among those who preferred beer, liquor or wine vs. no beverage preference. When stratifying by prior number of hospital visits (≤ 15, 16-33, 34-64, ≥ 65) as a proxy for health status, we observed attenuation of the protective association with greater number of visits [HR (95% CI): 0.87 (0.63, 1.19) for ≥ 65 visits vs. 0.80 (0.59, 1.08) for ≤ 15 visits]. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a lower risk of ischemic stroke, but not hemorrhagic stroke with moderate alcohol consumption and did not observe substantial differences in risk by beverage preference among a sample of U.S. Veterans. Healthy user bias of moderate alcohol consumption may be driving some of the observed protective association.

Gaps in the type 2 diabetes care cascade: a national perspective using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database.

BACKGROUND: Research out of South Africa estimates the total unmet need for care for those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes) at 80%. We evaluated the care cascade using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database and assessed if HIV infection impacts progression through its stages. METHODS: The cohort includes patients from government facilities with their first glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or plasma glucose (fasting (FPG); random (RPG)) measured between January 2012 to March 2015 in the NHLS. Lab-diagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, FPG ≥ 7.0mmol/l, or RPG ≥ 11.1mmol/l. Cascade stages post diagnosis were retention-in-care and glycaemic control (defined as an HbA1c < 7.0% or FPG < 8.0mmol/l or RPG < 10.0mmol/l) over 24-months. We estimated gaps at each stage nationally and by people living with HIV (PLWH) and without (PLWOH). RESULTS: Of the 373,889 patients tested for diabetes, 43.2% had an HbA1c or blood glucose measure indicating a diabetes diagnosis. Amongst those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 30.9% were retained-in-care (based on diabetes labs) and 8.7% reached glycaemic control by 24-months. Prevalence of lab-diagnosed diabetes in PLWH was 28.6% versus 47.3% in PLWOH. Among those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 34.3% of PLWH were retained-in-care versus 30.3% PLWOH. Among people retained-in-care, 33.8% of PLWH reached glycaemic control over 24-months versus 28.6% of PLWOH. CONCLUSIONS: In our analysis of South Africa's NHLS database, we observed that 70% of patients diagnosed with diabetes did not maintain in consistent diabetes care, with fewer than 10% reaching glycemic control within 24 months. We noted a disparity in diabetes prevalence between PLWH and PLWOH, potentially linked to different screening methods. These differences underscore the intricacies in care but also emphasize how HIV care practices could guide better management of chronic diseases like diabetes. Our results underscore the imperative for specialized strategies to bolster diabetes care in South Africa.