Comparative responses to 17 different antidepressants in major depressive disorder: Results from a 2-year long-term nation-wide population-based study emulating a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Long-term studies comparing nonresponse to antidepressants for major depressive disorder (MDD) are lacking. AIMS: To present systematic population-based nation-wide register data on comparative 2-year non-response within six antidepressant drug classes and 17 different antidepressants in patients with MDD. METHOD: The study included all 106,920 patients in Denmark with a first main index diagnosis of MDD at a psychiatric hospital inpatient or outpatient contact and who subsequently had a purchase of an antidepressant in the period from 1995 to 2018. Non-response to first antidepressant within a 2-year study period was defined as switch to or add-on of another antidepressant, antipsychotic medication, lithium, or hospitalization. Analyses emulated a targeted trial in populations standardized according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity with psychiatric and physical disorders. RESULTS: Compared with sertraline, there was no difference for citalopram (RR: 1.00 [95% CI: 0.98-1.02]) but fluoxetine (1.13 [95% CI: 1.10-1.17]), paroxetine (1.06 [95% CI: 1.01-1.10]) and escitalopram (1.22 [95% CI: 1.18-1.25]) were associated with higher risk ratio of non-responses. Within selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, sertraline outperformed reboxetine; within serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, venlafaxine outperformed duloxetine; within noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants, mirtazapine outperformed mianserin and within the class of other antidepressants, sertraline outperformed agomelatine and vortioxetine. Within tricyclic antidepressants, compared to amitriptyline, nortriptyline, dosulepin, and clomipramine had higher non-response, whereas there was no difference for imipramine. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses emulating a randomized trial of "real world" observational register-based data show that 2-year long-term non-responses to some antidepressants within six different drug classes are increased over others.

Lifetime risk of comorbidity in patients with simple congenital heart disease: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: In a continuously ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), understanding the long-term risk of morbidity is crucial. The aim of this study was to compare the lifetime risks of developing comorbidities in patients with simple CHD and matched controls. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Danish nationwide registers spanning from 1977 to 2018, simple CHD cases were defined as isolated atrial septal defect (ASD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus in patients surviving until at least 5 years of age. There were 10 controls identified per case. Reported were absolute lifetime risks and lifetime risk differences (between patients with simple CHD and controls) of incident comorbidities stratified by groups and specific cardiovascular comorbidities. Of the included 17 157 individuals with simple CHD, the largest subgroups were ASD (37.7%) and VSD (33.9%), and 52% were females. The median follow-up time for patients with CHD was 21.2 years (interquartile range: 9.4-39.0) and for controls, 19.8 years (9.0-37.0). The lifetime risks for the investigated comorbidities were higher and appeared overall at younger ages for simple CHD compared with controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. The lifetime risk difference among the comorbidity groups was highest for neurological disease (male: 15.2%, female: 11.3%), pulmonary disease (male: 9.1%, female: 11.7%), and among the specific comorbidities for stroke (male: 18.9%, female: 11.4%). The overall risk of stroke in patients with simple CHD was mainly driven by ASD (male: 28.9%, female: 17.5%), while the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure were driven by VSD. The associated lifetime risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in both sexes were smaller in invasively treated patients compared with untreated patients with simple CHD. CONCLUSION: Patients with simple CHD had increased lifetime risks of all comorbidities compared with matched controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. These findings highlight the need for increased attention towards early management of comorbidity risk factors.

Long-term mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding in stable patients 1 year after myocardial infarction: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: Outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI) improved during recent decades alongside better risk factor management and implementation of guideline-recommended treatments. However, it is unknown whether this applies to stable patients who are event-free 1 year after MI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with first-time MI during 2000-17 who survived 1 year free from bleeding and cardiovascular events (n = 82 108, median age 64 years, 68.2% male). Follow-up started 1 year after MI and continued through January 2022. Crude risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding were estimated in consecutive 3-year periods. Standardized risks were calculated with respect to the distribution of age, sex, comorbidities, and treatments in the latter period. Guideline-recommended treatment use increased during the study period: e.g. statins (68.6-92.5%) and percutaneous coronary intervention (23.9-68.2%). The crude 5-year risks of outcomes decreased (all P-trend <0.001): Mortality, 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-19.2) to 12.5% (CI: 11.9-13.1); Recurrent MI, 7.5% (CI: 7.1-8.0) to 5.5% (CI: 5.1-6.0); Bleeding, 3.9% (CI: 3.6-4.3) to 2.7% (CI: 2.4-3.0). Crude 5-year risk of mortality in 2015-17 was as low as 2.6% for patients aged <60 years. Use of guideline-recommended treatments was associated with improved outcomes: After standardization for changes in treatments, 5-year risk of mortality in 2000-02 was 15.5% (CI: 14.9-16.2). CONCLUSIONS: For patients who were event-free 1 year after MI, the long-term risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding decreased significantly, along with an improved use of guideline-recommended treatments between 2000 and 2017. In the most recent period, 1 year after MI, the risk of additional events was lower than previously reported.

Risk of ankylosis of avulsed teeth immediately replanted or stored under favorable storage conditions before replantation: A long-term clinical study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: There are few long-term clinical follow-up studies on human teeth replanted immediately or after storage in a suitable storage medium prior to replantation. This study aimed to assess the risk of ankylosis in avulsed human teeth replanted immediately or after storage in physiological media for a short time. MATERIAL: Data from 116 patients with 145 replanted avulsed permanent teeth were selected from a comprehensive dental trauma database in Copenhagen University Hospital. The following teeth were selected: Group 1 comprised 36 teeth replanted immediately (dry time <6 min; wet time <6 min). Group 2 comprised 61 teeth replanted after physiologic storage media (saliva and saline) (dry time <6 min; wet time >5 min; wet time ranged from 7 to 170 min, and mean wet time was 59 min). Group 3 (control) included 48 teeth replanted after dry storage (dry time > 60 min). METHOD: Clinical and radiographic registrations were carried out according to a standardized protocol; follow-up ranged from 7 months to 23 years. Ankylosis was diagnosed by percussion test and radiographs and related to the conditions prior to replantation and stage of root development. RESULTS: The overall risk of ankylosis was 17.2% [95% CI: 4.61; 29.79] for immediately replanted teeth, 55.3% [95% CI: 42.54; 68.00] for teeth stored in physiologic media before replantation, and 85.7% [95% CI: 75.70; 95.73] for teeth stored dry more than 1 h. Mature teeth showed a significantly higher risk of ankylosis than immature teeth. CONCLUSION: This clinical long-term study has verified earlier experimental studies showing that immediate reimplantation has the lowest risk of ankylosis. Physiologic storage media are good alternatives that also reduce the risk of ankylosis compared to dry storage, where ankylosis is more likely although not always seen. Mature teeth are significantly more likely to develop ankylosis.

Estimation of separable direct and indirect effects in a continuous-time illness-death model.

In this article we study the effect of a baseline exposure on a terminal time-to-event outcome either directly or mediated by the illness state of a continuous-time illness-death process with baseline covariates. We propose a definition of the corresponding direct and indirect effects using the concept of separable (interventionist) effects (Robins and Richardson in Causality and psychopathology: finding the determinants of disorders and their cures, Oxford University Press, 2011; Robins et al. in arXiv:2008.06019 , 2021; Stensrud et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 117:175-183, 2022). Our proposal generalizes Martinussen and Stensrud (Biometrics 79:127-139, 2023) who consider similar causal estimands for disentangling the causal treatment effects on the event of interest and competing events in the standard continuous-time competing risk model. Unlike natural direct and indirect effects (Robins and Greenland in Epidemiology 3:143-155, 1992; Pearl in Proceedings of the seventeenth conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann, 2001) which are usually defined through manipulations of the mediator independently of the exposure (so-called cross-world interventions), separable direct and indirect effects are defined through interventions on different components of the exposure that exert their effects through distinct causal mechanisms. This approach allows us to define meaningful mediation targets even though the mediating event is truncated by the terminal event. We present the conditions for identifiability, which include some arguably restrictive structural assumptions on the treatment mechanism, and discuss when such assumptions are valid. The identifying functionals are used to construct plug-in estimators for the separable direct and indirect effects. We also present multiply robust and asymptotically efficient estimators based on the efficient influence functions. We verify the theoretical properties of the estimators in a simulation study, and we demonstrate the use of the estimators using data from a Danish registry study.

Risk of first-time major cardiovascular event among individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: data from Danish registers.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether individuals with initial omission of glucose-lowering drug treatment (GLDT), including those achieving initial remission of type 2 diabetes, may experience a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT after a new type 2 diabetes diagnosis in real-world clinical practice. Furthermore, we examined whether a higher risk could be related to lower initiation of statins and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi). METHODS: In this cohort study, we used Danish registers to identify individuals with a first measured HbA1c between 48 and 57 mmol/mol (6.5-7.4%) from 2014 to 2020. Six months later, we divided participants into four groups according to GLDT and achieved HbA1c (<48 vs ≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%]): well-controlled and poorly controlled on GLDT; remission and persistent type 2 diabetes not on GLDT. We reported how much the standardised 5 year risk of MACE could be reduced for each group if initiation of statins and RASi was the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT. RESULTS: We included 14,221 individuals. Compared with well-controlled participants on GLDT, the 5 year standardised risk of MACE was higher in the three other exposure groups: by 3.3% (95% CI 1.6, 5.1) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group not on GLDT; 2.0% (95% CI 0.4, 3.7) in the remission group not on GLDT; and 3.5% (95% CI 1.3, 5.7) in the poorly controlled group on GLDT. Fewer individuals not on GLDT initiated statins and RASi compared with individuals on GLDT. If initiation of statins and RASi had been the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT, participants not on GLDT could have reduced their risk of MACE by 2.1% (95% CI 1.2, 2.9) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group and by 1.1% (95% CI 0.4, 1.9) in the remission group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT, individuals not on initial GLDT had a higher 5 year risk of MACE, even among those achieving remission of type 2 diabetes. This may be related to lower use of statins and RASi.

Marginal structural models with monotonicity constraints: A case study in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients.

This paper deals with estimating the probability of a binary counterfactual outcome as a function of a continuous covariate under monotonicity constraints. We are motivated by the study of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients which aims to estimate the counterfactual 30-day survival probability if either all patients had received, or if none of the patients had received bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), as a function of the ambulance response time. It is natural to assume that the counterfactual 30-day survival probability cannot increase with increasing ambulance response time. We model the monotone relationship with a marginal structural model and B-splines. We then derive an estimating equation for the parameters of interest which however further relies on an auxiliary regression model for the observed 30-day survival probabilities. The predictions of the observed 30-day survival probabilities are used as pseudo-values for the unobserved counterfactual 30-day survival status. The methods are illustrated and contrasted with an unconstrained modeling approach in large-scale Danish registry data.

Ranking of average treatment effects with generalized random forests for time-to-event outcomes.

Linkage between drug claims data and clinical outcome allows a data-driven experimental approach to drug repurposing. We develop an estimation procedure based on generalized random forests for estimation of time-point specific average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting with competing risks. To handle right-censoring, we propose a two-step procedure for estimation, applying inverse probability weighting to construct time-point specific weighted outcomes as input for the generalized random forest. The generalized random forests adaptively handle covariate effects on the treatment assignment by applying a splitting rule that targets a causal parameter. Using simulated data we demonstrate that the method is effective for a causal search through a list of treatments to be ranked according to the magnitude of their effect on clinical outcome. We illustrate the method using the Danish national health registries where it is of interest to discover drugs with an unexpected protective effect against relapse of severe depression.

Colonoscopy performance monitoring: do we need to adjust for case mix?

INTRODUCTION: Overall caecum intubation rate(oCIR) and overall polyp detection rate(oPDR) have been proposed as performance indicators, but varying complexity in case mix among endoscopists may potentially affect validity. The study aims to explore the effect of adjusting for case mix on individual endoscopist performance by calculating case mix-adjusted performance estimates (cmCIR and cmPDR) and comparing them to overall performance estimates (oCIR and oPDR). The study also provides an R program for case mix analysis. METHODS: Logistic regression associated endoscopist, colonoscopy indication, patient age and patient gender with the binary outcomes of cecum intubation and polyp detection. Case mix-adjusted performance indicators were calculated for each endoscopist based on logistic regression and bootstraps. Endoscopists were ranked from best to worst by overall and case mix-adjusted performance estimates, and differences were evaluated using percentage points(pp) and rank changes. RESULTS: The dataset consisted of 7376 colonoscopies performed by 47 endoscopists. The maximum rank change for an endoscopist comparing oCIR and cmCIR was eight positions, interquartile range (IQR 1-3). The maximum change in CIR was 1.95 percentage point (pp) (IQR 0.27-0.86). The maximum rank change in the oPDR versus cmPDR analysis was 17 positions (IQR 1.5-8.5). The maximum change in PDR was 11.21 pp (IQR 2.05-6.70). Three endoscopists improved their performance from significantly inferior to within the 95% confidence interval (CI) range of performance targets using case mix-adjusted estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of endoscopists were unaffected by adjustment for case mix, but a few unfortunate endoscopists had an unfavourable case mix that could invite incorrect suspicion of inferior performance.

All-cause mortality among Danish nursing home residents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cohort study.

A substantial part of mortality during the COVID-19-pandemic occurred among nursing home residents which caused alarm in many countries. We investigate nursing home mortality in relation to the expected mortality prior to the pandemic. This nationwide register-based study included all 135,501 Danish nursing home residents between 2015 until October 6, 2021. All-cause mortality rates were calculated using a standardization method on sex and age distribution of 2020. Survival probability and lifetime lost for 180 days was calculated using Kaplan Meier estimates. Of 3,587 COVID-19 related deaths, 1137 (32%) occurred among nursing home residents. The yearly all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 person-years in 2015, 2016, and 2017 were 35,301 (95% CI: 34,671-35,943), 34,801 (95% CI: 34,180-35,432), and 35,708 (95% CI: 35,085-36,343), respectively. Slightly elevated mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were seen in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 of 38,268 (95% CI: 37,620-38,929), 36,956 (95% CI: 36,323-37,600), 37,475 (95% CI: 36,838-38,122), and 38,536 (95% CI: 37,798-39,287), respectively. For SARS-CoV-2-infected nursing home residents, lifetime lost difference was 42 days (95% CI: 38-46) in 2020 versus non-infected in 2018. Among vaccinated in 2021, lifetime lost difference was 25 days (95% CI: 18-32) for SARS-CoV-2-infected versus non-infected. Even though a high proportion of COVID-19 fatalities took place in nursing homes and SARS-CoV-2-infection increased the risk of individual death, the annual mortality was only slightly elevated. For future epidemics or pandemics reporting numbers of fatal cases in relation to expected mortality is critical.

The risk of healing complications in primary teeth with root fractures: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Primary teeth are frequently affected by traumatic dental injuries. Root fractures are rare and have a reported incidence of 2% in the primary dentition. Hence, there is limited evidence on this topic. This study aims to evaluate the risk of healing complications in primary teeth with root fracture and to identify possible sequelae in the permanent dentition following root fracture in the primary dentition. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a cohort of 53 patients with 74 root fractured primary teeth. The standard follow-up program included clinical and radiographic examination after 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year after the trauma and when the patient was 6 years of age. The following complications were registered: pulp necrosis (PN), pulp canal obliteration (PCO), ankylosis with replacement root resorption (ARR), infection-related root resorption (IRR), premature tooth loss (PTL), and repair-related resorption (RRR). STATISTICS: The Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators were employed. The level of significance was 5%. RESULTS: A total of 74 teeth were included. 42 teeth were extracted at the initial examination. Risks estimated after 3 years: PTL 45.9% [95% CI: 28.8-63.0], PCO 12.9% [95% CI: 2.3-23.4], PN 14.9% [95% CI: 3.9-25.9], RRR 2.6% [95% CI: 0.0-7.5]. No teeth showed ARR or IRR. All complications were diagnosed within the first year. Most common sequelae in the permanent dentition was demarcated opacities, with an estimated risk of 20% [95% CI: 8.2-41.3]. CONCLUSIONS: There is a low risk of healing complications following a root fracture in the primary dentition. Root fractures often result in early extraction of the coronal fragment. The remaining apical fragment will undergo a physiological resorption. Aside from opacities, there is a low risk of sequelae in the permanent dentition.

Glycated haemoglobin levels among 3295 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with and without diabetes, and risk of severe infection, admission to an intensive care unit and all-cause mortality.

AIM: To determine the risk of adverse outcomes across the spectrum of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with and without diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Danish nationwide registries were used to study the association between HbA1c levels and 30-day risk of all-cause mortality and the composite of severe COVID-19 infection, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and all-cause mortality. The study population comprised patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (3 March 2020 to 31 December 2020) with a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and an available HbA1c ≤ 6 months before the first positive PCR test. All patients had at least 30 days of follow-up. Among patients with diabetes, HbA1c was categorized as <48 mmol/mol, 48 to 53 mmol/mol, 54 to 58 mmol/mol, 59 to 64 mmol/mol (reference) and >64 mmol/mol. Among patients without diabetes, HbA1c was stratified into <31 mmol/mol, 31 to 36 mmol/mol (reference), 37 to 41 mmol/mol and 42 to 47 mmol/mol. Thirty-day standardized absolute risks and standardized absolute risk differences are reported. RESULTS: We identified 3295 hospitalized COVID-19 patients with an available HbA1c (56.2% male, median age 73.9 years), of whom 35.8% had diabetes. The median HbA1c was 54 and 37 mmol/mol among patients with and without diabetes, respectively. Among patients with diabetes, the standardized absolute risk difference of the composite outcome was higher with HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol (12.0% [95% confidence interval {CI} 3.3% to 20.8%]) and HbA1c > 64 mmol/mol (15.1% [95% CI 6.2% to 24.0%]), compared with HbA1c 59 to 64 mmol/mol (reference). Among patients without diabetes, the standardized absolute risk difference of the composite outcome was greater with HbA1c < 31 mmol/mol (8.5% [95% CI 0.5% to 16.5%]) and HbA1c 42 to 47 mmol/mol (6.7% [95% CI 1.3% to 12.1%]), compared with HbA1c 31 to 36 mmol/mol (reference). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 and HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol or HbA1c > 64 mmol/mol had a higher associated risk of the composite outcome. Similarly, among patients without diabetes, varying HbA1c levels were associated with higher risk of the composite outcome.

Risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in antidepressant drug users.

Conflicting results have been reported regarding the association between antidepressant use and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) risk. We investigated whether the use of antidepressants is associated with OHCA. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide nested case-control study to assess the association of individual antidepressant drugs within drug classes with the hazard of OHCA. Cases were defined as OHCA from presumed cardiac causes. Cox regression with time-dependent exposure and time-dependent covariates was conducted to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) overall and in subgroups defined by established cardiac disease and cardiovascular risk factors. Also, we studied antidepressants with and without sodium channel blocking or potassium channel blocking properties separately. RESULTS: During the study period from 2001 to 2015 we observed 10 987 OHCA cases, and found increased OHCA rate for high-dose citalopram (>20 mg) and high-dose escitalopram (>10 mg; HR:1.46 [95% CI:1.27-1.69], HR:1.43 [95% CI:1.16-1.75], respectively) among selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (reference drug sertraline), and for high-dose mirtazapine (>30; HR:1.59 [95% CI:1.18-2.14]) among the serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors or noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants (reference drug duloxetine). Among tricyclic antidepressants (reference drug amitriptyline), no drug was associated with significantly increased OHCA rate. Increased OHCA rate was found for antidepressants with known potassium channel blocking properties (HR:1.14 [95% CI:1.05-1.23]), but for not those with sodium channel blocking properties. Citalopram, although not statistically significant, and mirtazapine were associated with increased OHCA rate in patients without cardiac disease and cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that careful titration of citalopram, escitalopram and mirtazapine dose may have to be considered due to drug safety issues.

Hypothetical interventions on emergency ambulance and prehospital acetylsalicylic acid administration in myocardial infarction patients presenting without chest pain.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction (MI) patients presenting without chest pain are a diagnostic challenge. They receive suboptimal prehospital management and have high mortality. To elucidate potential benefits of improved management, we analysed expected outcome among non-chest pain MI patients if hypothetically they (1) received emergency ambulances/acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) as often as observed for chest pain patients, and (2) all received emergency ambulance/ASA. METHODS: We sampled calls to emergency and non-emergency medical services for patients hospitalized with MI within 24 h and categorized calls as chest pain/non-chest pain. Outcomes were 30-day mortality and a 1-year combined outcome of re-infarction, heart failure admission, and mortality. Targeted minimum loss-based estimation was used for all statistical analyses. RESULTS: Among 5418 calls regarding MI patients, 24% (1309) were recorded with non-chest pain. In total, 90% (3689/4109) of chest pain and 40% (525/1309) of non-chest pain patients received an emergency ambulance, and 73% (2668/3632) and 37% (192/518) of chest pain and non-chest pain patients received prehospital ASA. Providing ambulances to all non-chest pain patients was not associated with improved survival. Prehospital administration of ASA to all emergency ambulance transports of non-chest pain MI patients was expected to reduce 30-day mortality by 5.3% (CI 95%: [1.7%;9%]) from 12.8% to 7.4%. No significant reduction was found for the 1-year combined outcome (2.6% CI 95% [- 2.9%;8.1%]). In comparison, the observed 30-day mortality was 3% among ambulance-transported chest pain MI patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found large differences in the prehospital management of MI patients with and without chest pain. Improved prehospital ASA administration to non-chest pain MI patients could possibly reduce 30-day mortality, but long-term effects appear limited. Non-chest pain MI patients are difficult to identify prehospital and possible unintended effects of ASA might outweigh the potential benefits of improving the prehospital management. Future research should investigate ways to improve the prehospital recognition of MI in the absence of chest pain.

Do changes in frailty, physical functioning, and cognitive functioning predict mortality in old age? Results from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using various health indicators as well as changes in these indicators for predicting mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether changes in health indicators such as frailty and physical performance improve mortality predictions in old age. METHODS: This is a population based prospective cohort study on 995 community-dwelling people aged 68-92 years from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. Two measurements at a three-year interval (1995/1996 and 1998/1999) were available for the frailty index, frailty phenotype, grip strength, walking speed, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cox regression was used to analyze mortality risks associated with the current health status and changes in health, with mortality data up to 2017. The extent to which these health indicators improved mortality predictions compared to models with age and sex only was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The AUC of age and sex for five-year mortality was 72.8% (95% CI 69.0 - 76.5) and was the lowest in the oldest old (age > 80.5 years). The added AUC of the current status of health indicators ranged from 0.7 to 3.3%. The added AUC of the three-year change was lower, ranging from -0.0 to 1.1%, whereas the added AUC of three-year change and current status combined was similar to current status alone, ranging from 0.6 to 3.2%. Across age, the added AUC of current status was highest in the oldest old, however there was no such pattern using three-year change. Overall, the frailty index appeared to improve mortality predictions the most, followed by the frailty phenotype, MMSE, grip strength, and walking speed. CONCLUSIONS: Current health status improved mortality predictions better than changes in health. Its contribution was highest in the oldest old, but the added value to models with age and sex only was limited.

Perceived return-to-work pressure following cardiovascular disease is associated with age, sex, and diagnosis: a nationwide combined survey- and register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Return to work is a key rehabilitation goal for people with cardiovascular disease (CVD) because employment matters to individuals and societies. However, people recovering from CVD often struggle with returning to work and maintaining employment. To identify people in need of vocational counselling, we examined the probability of feeling under pressure to return to work following CVD. METHODS: We conducted a combined survey- and register-based study in a randomly selected, population-based cohort of 10,000 people diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, heart failure, heart valve disease, or ischaemic heart disease in 2018. The questionnaire covered return-to-work items, and we reported the probabilities of feeling under pressure to return to work with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in categories defined by sex, age, and CVD diagnosis. RESULTS: The survey response rate was 51.1%. In this study, we included 842 respondents (79.7% men) aged 32-85 years, who had returned to work following a sick leave. Overall, 249 (29.7%) had felt pressure to return to work. The probability of feeling under pressure to return to work ranged from 18.3% (95% CI: 13.1-24.6) among men aged > 55 years with atrial fibrillation to 51.7% (95% CI: 32.5-70.6) among women aged ≤ 55 years with atrial fibrillation. In addition, 66.0% of all respondents had not been offered vocational rehabilitation, and 48.6% of those who reported a need for vocational counselling had unmet needs. Survey responses also indicated that many respondents had returned to work before feeling mentally and physically ready. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of people with cardiovascular disease feel under pressure to return to work, and this pressure is associated with age, sex, and diagnosis. The results show that vocational rehabilitation must be improved and emphasize the importance of ensuring that cardiac rehabilitation programmes include all core rehabilitation components.

All-cause mortality and location of death in patients with established cardiovascular disease before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdown: a Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: On 13 March 2020, the Danish authorities imposed extensive nationwide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and reallocated limited healthcare resources. We investigated mortality rates, overall and according to location, in patients with established cardiovascular disease before, during, and after these lockdown measures. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified a dynamic cohort comprising all Danish citizens with cardiovascular disease (i.e. a history of ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or peripheral artery disease) alive on 2 January 2019 and 2020. The cohort was followed from 2 January 2019/2020 until death or 16/15 October 2019/2020. The cohort comprised 340 392 and 347 136 patients with cardiovascular disease in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The overall, in-hospital, and out-of-hospital mortality rate in 2020 before lockdown was significantly lower compared with the same period in 2019 [adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI 0.87-0.95; IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89-1.02; and IRR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, respectively]. The overall mortality rate during and after lockdown was not significantly different compared with the same period in 2019 (IRR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.02). However, the in-hospital mortality rate was lower and out-of-hospital mortality rate higher during and after lockdown compared with the same period in 2019 (in-hospital, IRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.96; out-of-hospital, IRR 1.04, 95% CI1.01-1.08). These trends were consistent irrespective of sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with established cardiovascular disease, the in-hospital mortality rate was lower and out-of-hospital mortality rate higher during lockdown compared with the same period in the preceding year, irrespective of age and sex.

Human papillomavirus testing in metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the neck with unknown primary using PCR on fine-needle aspiration smears: a prospective clinical study.

PURPOSE: Squamous cell carcinoma metastasis of the head and neck with unknown primary tumor (CUP) comprises a diagnostic challenge. Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on cytologic specimens is gaining increasing focus as this may facilitate an early diagnosis of HPV-induced oropharyngeal carcinoma. This study aimed to prospectively assess PCR-based HPV-DNA testing on FNA smears in a clinical setting. METHODS: Patients referred to a tertiary Head and Neck Cancer Center with suspected CUP were included from November 2016 to November 2018. Scraped cell material from FNA smears was analyzed for HPV-DNA with PCR using general primers (GP5 + /GP6 +) and correlated with the origin and histology of the primary tumor (oropharynx vs. outside oropharynx or benign tumor). The turn-around time reflecting the workflow for HPV-DNA testing by PCR was also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 93 patients were enrolled in the study. The sensitivity and specificity were 86.7% [95% CI 75.4-94.1%] and 92.0% [95% CI 74.0-99.0%], and the positive and negative predictive values were 96.3% [95% CI 87.3-99.0%] and 74.2% [95% CI 59.9-84.7%], respectively. The turn-around time for HPV testing was a mean four calendar days. CONCLUSION: HPV-DNA testing on FNA smears can be performed within a reasonable timeframe and can guide for the detection of an HPV-positive oropharyngeal primary tumor in the clinical setting for patients presenting with CUP of the head and neck.

Association Between Male Sex and Outcomes of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-A Danish Nationwide, Register-based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Male sex has been associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. We examined the association between male sex and severe COVID-19 infection and if an increased risk remains after adjustment for age and comorbidities. METHODS: Nationwide register-based follow-up study of COVID-19 patients in Denmark until 16 May 2020. Average risk ratio comparing 30-day composite outcome of all-cause death, severe COVID-19 diagnosis or intensive care unit (ICU) admission for men versus women standardized to the age and comorbidity distribution of all patients were derived from multivariable Cox regression. Included covariates were age, hypertension, diagnoses including obesity, alcohol, sleep apnea, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, previous myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke, peripheral artery disease, cancer, liver, rheumatic, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). RESULTS: Of 4842 COVID-19 patients, 2281 (47.1%) were men. Median age was 57 [25%-75% 43-73] for men versus 52 [38-71] for women (P < .001); however, octogenarians had equal sex distribution. Alcohol diagnosis, diabetes, hypertension, sleep apnea, prior MI and IHD (all P < .001) as well as AF, stroke, and HF (all P = .01) were more often seen in men, and so was CKD (P = .03). Obesity diagnosis (P < .001) were more often seen in women. Other comorbidity differences were insignificant (P > .05). The fully adjusted average risk ratio was 1.63 [95% CI, 1.44-1.84]. CONCLUSIONS: Men with COVID-19 infection have >50% higher risk of all-cause death, severe COVID-19 infection, or ICU admission than women. The excess risk was not explained by age and comorbidities.

Dabigatran and the Risk of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with dabigatran, an oral direct thrombin inhibitor, reduces the virulence of Staphylococcus aureus in in vitro and in vivo models. However, it remains to be determined whether dabigatran reduces the risk of S. aureus infections in humans. We investigated the incidence rate of S. aureus bacteremia (SAB) in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with the direct thrombin inhibitor dabigatran compared with patients treated with the factor Xa-inhibitors rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, 112 537 patients with atrial fibrillation who initiated treatment with direct oral anticoagulants (August 2011-December 2017) were identified from Danish nationwide registries. The incidence rates of SAB in patients treated with dabigatran versus patients treated with the factor Xa-inhibitors were examined by multivariable Cox regression accounting for time-dynamic changes in exposure status during follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 112 537 patients were included. During a median follow-up of 2.0 years, 186 patients in the dabigatran group and 356 patients in the factor Xa-inhibitor group were admitted with SAB. The crude incidence rate of SAB was lower in the dabigatran group compared with the factor Xa-inhibitor group (22.8 [95% confidence interval [CI], 19.7-26.3] and 33.8 [95% CI, 30.5-37.6] events per 10 000 person-years, respectively). In adjusted analyses, dabigatran was associated with a significantly lower incidence rate of SAB compared with factor Xa-inhibitors (incidence rate ratio, .76; 95% CI, .63-.93). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with dabigatran was associated with a significantly lower incidence rate of SAB compared with treatment with factor Xa-inhibitors.