To leave or not to leave: survival trade-offs between different migratory strategies in the greater flamingo.

1. The balance between costs and benefits of migration under different environmental, density-dependent and individual conditions may promote a broad range of migratory behaviours. We studied the factors influencing first-year migration and subsequent fidelity or dispersal among wintering areas, and the survival costs of different wintering behaviours in the greater flamingo (Phoenicopterus roseus). 2. We analysed by multievent capture-recapture modelling among-site dispersal/fidelity and site-dependent survival probabilities from 22 671 flamingos ringed in the Camargue (France) between 1977 and 2010 and resighted subsequently in their wintering grounds classified as France, Iberian Peninsula, Italy and North Africa. 3. We found that first- and second-year birds either resident or wintering at medium distances from their birth place, survived better than those wintering further afield. However, under severe winter conditions (extremely cold winter 1984-1985), individuals with the sedentary strategy suffered the highest levels of mortality. From the third winter onwards, the pattern of survival reversed: the long-distance wintering individuals (i.e. North Africa) survived better. 4. The proportion of first-year birds migrating for wintering was highly variable among cohorts and increased with favourable environmental conditions (wet years). After the first winter, birds showed high fidelity (>90%) to their previous wintering area and wintered preferably near their natal colony when they became adults (>2 years). 5. Survival estimates suggest that long-distance migration was costly for young and inexperienced individuals. Nonetheless, for adults, the most southern wintering areas seem to offer the most favourable local conditions for overwinter survival. 6. The higher availability of intermediate stopover sites during wet years may facilitate first-year migration. Then, once they have some wintering experience, flamingos appear to favour the known wintering grounds. As they grow older, dispersing towards the vicinity of the natal colony may provide higher breeding prospects for individuals wintering closer to this high-quality and saturated breeding ground, as predicted by the arrival-time hypothesis.

Assessing spatial and temporal population dynamics of cryptic species: an example with the European pond turtle.

Within the current context of biodiversity loss a number of biodiversity indicators have been developed to help measure the state of nature and how it is changing. However, most indicators are derived from bird populations. Reptiles and amphibians could be useful ecosystem indicators, but this requires obtaining precise and unbiased population parameters. This is a particularly challenging task for these two groups of species, because individuals are extremely difficult to detect for various reasons. We illustrate the use of a sampling and analytical method that explicitly takes into account imperfect detection to assess the population dynamics of a reptile species and its temporal and spatial variation. European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) were sampled at two different locations during a 10-year study. The two sites differed by their water management regimes and number of livestock. At each site and for each sex, the data were modeled using a robust design capture-mark-recapture framework to obtain and compare estimates of survival, temporary emigration, time-specific abundance, density, and population growth rate, while taking into account effects of individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on capture probabilities. Temporary emigration was higher in males (0.344 +/- 0.046) (mean +/- SE) than in females (0.228 +/- 0.071), did not differ between sites for each sex, and was mainly Markovian. Apparent adult survival was higher in females (0.966 +/- 0.031) than in males (0.864 +/- 0.024), and was negatively related to the proportion of individuals with repaired shell fractures in the population. Average density was 63.7 +/- 6.6 turtles/km2 but was higher for females (39.2 +/- 14.0 females/km2) than for males (23.5 +/- 5.7 males/km2). The population sizes of males and females decreased where long periods of artificial drought and the highest density of livestock occurred. This research highlights differences in demographic parameters according to sex and site in a turtle species, and it provides evidence that significant human-induced disturbance represents a potential risk to European pond turtle populations. The sampling and analytical approaches illustrated in this study are applicable to many other species of reptiles and amphibians, and estimated population parameters could be combined to produce population indicators useful for conservation and management.

Experience-dependent natal philopatry of breeding greater flamingos.

1. Contrary to the generally high level of natal philopatry (i.e. likelihood that individuals breed at their natal colony) found in first-breeding colonial birds, little is known of natal philopatry later in life. Most hypotheses advanced to explain natal philopatry are valid at all ages. However, for young and inexperienced birds, the benefits of natal philopatry may be counterbalanced by the costs of intraspecific competition at the natal colony making dispersal temporarily advantageous. In turn, experience may increase competitive ability and make natal philopatry advantageous again. 2. We evaluated this hypothesis on the large-scale dispersal of greater flamingos Phoenicopterus roseus breeding among three colonies comprising >85% of the Western Mediterranean metapopulation. The Camargue (France) and Fuente de Piedra (Spain) are large and saturated colonies while Molentargius (Sardinia) is a recent and growing colony. 3. We used a 20-year capture-mark-resighting dataset of 4900 flamingos ringed as chicks in Camargue and Fuente de Piedra and breeding at the three colonies. We assessed the effects of natal colony and breeding experience (first-time observed breeders versus confirmed experienced breeders) on dispersal using multistate capture-recapture models. Dispersal to an unobservable state accounted for temporary emigration. 4. Fidelity was higher at the natal colony (>84%) than elsewhere. Fidelity increased with experience in the two large colonies (Camargue and Fuente de Piedra) suggesting a large-scale experience-related despotic distribution. Breeding dispersal was significant (up to 61% and 52% for first-time breeders and experienced breeders, respectively) so that colony dynamics is affected by exchanges with other colonies. Except for Fuente-born breeders leaving Molentargius, dispersal to the natal colony was higher than to any other colonies. 5. Survival was not higher at the natal colony. Inexperienced birds likely had lower breeding success at the Camargue and skipped reproduction after having emigrated to the other large colony but not to Molentargius. Breeding at Molentargius could allow avoiding queuing (and non-breeding) at the large colonies while gaining experience and competitive ability for future attempts. 6 Natal philopatry appears as an important driver of large-scale breeding dispersal in the Greater flamingo. The fitness advantage of natal philopatry is likely experience-dependent and mediated by the variations of intraspecific competition.

Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin.

Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.