Reducing noise in radioactive iodine activity selection: the utility of an online clinical calculator.

Background: Noise, an unwanted variability in judgment, is ubiquitous in medicine, including in the prescription of radioactive iodine (RAI). Building upon our recently developed predictive risk model, we created an online clinical support tool to facilitate the translation of our model into clinical practice. The aim of this study is to assess the utility of an online clinical support tool to reduce noise in the treatment for patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Methods: The tool was accessible via weblink or a QR code. Activity recommendations were applied to the calculator's four risk categories: 0 GBq for very low risk, 1 GBq for low risk, 4 GBq for intermediate risk, and 6 GBq for high risk. The tool was applied prospectively to 103 patients who received RAI at Royal North Shore Hospital between 2021 and 2022 and retrospectively to 393 patients treated with RAI between 2017 and 2021. Results: A significant difference was observed in administered activity between the 2021-2022 and 2017-2021 cohorts in patients stratified as intermediate risk (median activity 3.95 GBq, interquartile range 2.03-4.04 vs 4 GBq, 4-4) and high risk (4.07 GBq, 3.95-5.7 vs 6 GBq, 6-6) with P-values of 0.01 and <0.01, respectively. No difference was seen in low-risk patients (2.01 GBq, 1.03-3.98 vs 1 GBq, 1-4, P = 0.30). Additionally, no clinically significant recurrence was observed between the two cohorts (6.6% vs 4.5%; P = 0.628). Conclusion: Optimal risk classification and activity recommendation continue to be established. Our data suggest that providing risk stratification and activity recommendation in an easy-to-access online tool can reduce noise and variability in activity prescription for patients with DTC.

Association of the Genomic Profile of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma with Tumor Characteristics and Clinical Outcomes in an International Multicenter Study.

Purpose: The prognostic importance of RET and RAS mutations and their relationship to clinicopathologic parameters and outcomes in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) need to be clarified. Experimental Design: A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed utilizing data from 290 patients with MTC. The molecular profile was determined and associations were examined with clinicopathologic data and outcomes. Results: RET germ line mutations were detected in 40 patients (16.3%). Somatic RET and RAS mutations occurred in 135 (46.9%) and 57 (19.8%) patients, respectively. RETM918T was the most common somatic RET mutation (n = 75). RET somatic mutations were associated with male sex, larger tumor size, advanced American Joint Committee Cancer (AJCC) stage, vascular invasion, and high International Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Grading System (IMTCGS) grade. When compared with other RET somatic mutations, RETM918T was associated with younger age, AJCC (eighth edition) IV, vascular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and positive margins. RET somatic or germ line mutations were significantly associated with reduced distant metastasis-free survival on univariate analysis, but there were no significant independent associations on multivariable analysis, after adjusting for tumor grade and stage. There were no significant differences in outcomes between RET somatic and RET germ line mutations, or between RETM918T and other RET mutations. Other recurrent molecular alterations included TP53 (4.2%), ARID2 (2.9%), SETD2 (2.9%), KMT2A (2.9%), and KMT2C (2.9%). Among them, TP53 mutations were associated with decreased overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), independently of tumor grade and AJCC stage. Conclusions: RET somatic mutations were associated with high-grade, aggressive primary tumor characteristics, and decreased distant metastatic-free survival but this relationship was not significant after accounting for tumor grade and disease stage. RETM918T was associated with aggressive primary tumors but was not independently associated with clinical outcomes. TP53 mutation may represent an adverse molecular event associated with decreased OS and DSS in MTC, but its prognostic value needs to be confirmed in future studies.

A Retrospective Cohort Study with Validation of Predictors of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes.

Background: The goal of radioactive iodine (RAI) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is to treat metastasis and reduce recurrence risk. International guidelines provide broad risk stratification to aid treatment decisions, but a more nuanced approach to individualize care is warranted. We developed a predictive risk model for DTC. Methods: We performed a retrospective multivariable analysis of 899 patients who received RAI after thyroidectomy at a quaternary center in Australia between 2008 and 2016. Collected data included age, gender, histology, stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg), and 8th American Joint Committee Cancer (AJCC) staging. The ATA Modified Initial Risk (ATA) was calculated retrospectively. Recurrence was defined as clinically significant progression requiring either surgical intervention or administration of a second activity of RAI. Synchronous metastasis was defined as distant metastasis (i.e., outside of the neck) that was present at the time of diagnosis on structural imaging or initial post-iodine treatment scan. The features significantly associated with synchronous metastasis or recurrence were employed in the generation of a predictive risk model. A separate cohort of 393 patients who received RAI in 2017-2021 was used for validation. Results: On multivariate analysis, sTg ≥10 µg/L, extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymph node involvement predicted recurrence. Independent of ATA, patients with sTg ≥10 µg/L had a shorter disease-free survival (DFS) than those with sTg <10 µg/L (p < 0.001). The ETE stratified by four histological categories was significantly associated with worse DFS (p < 0.001). In a subset of patients, the presence of thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) did not influence recurrence in patients with sTg <10 µg/L. On multivariate analysis, widespread ETE, sTg ≥10 µg/L, multifocal papillary thyroid cancer and follicular thyroid cancer were positively associated with synchronous metastasis. A predictive risk model was developed to estimate synchronous metastasis/recurrence risk and validated successfully in the second cohort. Conclusions: Our novel predictive risk model modifies and extends ATA stratification by including sTg and ETE, which we found to be independent predictors of both recurrence and synchronous metastasis in DTC.