RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia (DL) is an important risk factor of coronary artery disease (CAD). We evaluated DL prevalence and its 5-year incidence rate in southeastern Iran, to assess the severity and growth rate of this CAD risk factor in the region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a part of the Kerman CAD Risk Factors Study Phase 2 (2014-2018) among 9996 individuals aged 15-80 years, from whom 2820 individuals had also participated in Phase 1 (2009-2011). In mg/dl, cholesterol ≥240 and/or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <40 for men and <50 for women and/or triglyceride >200 were defined as DL. RESULTS: The lipid profile of 9911 persons was analyzed. Overall 19.6% had borderline cholesterol and 6.4% suffered from hypercholesterolemia. 56.6% of the population (62.5% of females vs. 48.5% of males) suffer from DL, from whom 73.4% were undiagnosed. Female gender, advanced age, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression predicted DL in the study population. The prevalence of DL was significantly lower in Phase 2 (56.6%) compared to Phase 1 (81.4%). The prevalence of undiagnosed DL (UDL) and diagnosed DL (DDL) was 40.7% and 16.2%, respectively. The 5-year incidence rate of DL was 2.58 persons/100 person-years (3.24 in females vs. 2.20 in males). CONCLUSION: Although there were promising signs of a reduction in DL and increase in DDL in the last 5 years, a high percentage of the population have DL yet, from whom mostly are undiagnosed. DL was significantly associated with other CAD risk factors. Therefore, the health-care management system should improve its strategies to reduce the health burden of DL.
RESUMO
COVID-19 is spreading all over Iran, and Kerman is one of the most affected cities. We conducted this study to predict COVID-19-related deaths, hospitalization, and infected cases under different scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) by 31 December 2021 in Kerman. We also aimed to assess the impact of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the total number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations (scenarios D, E, and F) using the modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. We calibrated the model using deaths reported from the start of the epidemic to August 30, 2021. A Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) uncertainty analysis was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We also calculated the time-varying reproductive number (R t) following time-dependent methods. Under the worst-case scenario (scenario A; contact rate = 10, self-isolation rate = 30%, and average vaccination shots per day = 5,000), the total number of infections by December 31, 2021, would be 1,625,000 (95% UI: 1,112,000-1,898,000) with 6,700 deaths (95% UI: 5,200-8,700). With the presence of alpha and delta variants without vaccine (scenario D), the total number of infected cases and the death toll were estimated to be 957,000 (95% UI: 208,000-1,463,000) and 4,500 (95% UI: 1,500-7,000), respectively. If 70% of the population were vaccinated when the alpha variant was dominant (scenario E), the total number of infected cases and deaths would be 608,000 (95% UI: 122,000-743,000) and 2,700 (95% UI: 700-4,000), respectively. The R t was ≥1 almost every day during the epidemic. Our results suggest that policymakers should concentrate on improving vaccination and interventions, such as reducing social contacts, stricter limitations for gathering, public education to promote social distancing, incensing case finding and contact tracing, effective isolation, and quarantine to prevent more COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Kerman.