Development and validation of nomogram to predict severe illness requiring intensive care follow up in hospitalized COVID-19 cases.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of severe COVID-19 patients who will need intensive care unit (ICU) follow-up and providing rapid, aggressive supportive care may reduce mortality and provide optimal use of medical resources. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict severe COVID-19 cases that would need ICU follow-up based on available and accessible patient values. METHODS: Patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between March 15, 2020, and June 15, 2020, were enrolled in this retrospective study with 35 variables obtained upon admission considered. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to select potential predictive parameters using 1000 bootstrap samples. Afterward, a nomogram was developed with 5 variables selected from multivariable analysis. The nomogram model was evaluated by Area Under the Curve (AUC) and bias-corrected Harrell's C-index with 95% confidence interval, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-fit test, and calibration curve analysis. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1022 patients, 686 cases without missing data were used to construct the nomogram. Of the 686, 104 needed ICU follow-up. The final model includes oxygen saturation, CRP, PCT, LDH, troponin as independent factors for the prediction of need for ICU admission. The model has good predictive power with an AUC of 0.93 (0.902-0.950) and a bias-corrected Harrell's C-index of 0.91 (0.899-0.947). Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-value was 0.826 and the model is well-calibrated (p = 0.1703). CONCLUSION: We developed a simple, accessible, easy-to-use nomogram with good distinctive power for severe illness requiring ICU follow-up. Clinicians can easily predict the course of COVID-19 and decide the procedure and facility of further follow-up by using clinical and laboratory values of patients available upon admission.

Does hospitalisation of a patient in the intensive care unit cause anxiety and does restriction of visiting cause depression for the relatives of these patients during COVID-19 pandemic?

OBJECTIVES: During the pandemic, anxiety and depression may occur increasingly in the whole society. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible cause, incidence and levels of anxiety and depression in the relatives of the patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) in accordance with the patients' SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) result. MATERIALS AND METHOD: The study was prospectively conducted on relatives of patients admitted to tertiary intensive care units during COVID-19 pandemic. Sociodemographic characteristics of the patients and their relatives were recorded. "The Turkish version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale" was applied twice to the relatives of 120 patients to determine the symptoms of anxiety and depression in accordance with the PCR results of the patients (PCR positive n = 60, PCR negative n = 60). RESULTS: The ratios above cut-off values for anxiety and depression among relatives of the patients were 45.8% and 67.5% for the first questionnaire and 46.7% and 62.5% for the second questionnaire, respectively. The anxiety and depression in the relatives of PCR-positive patients was more frequent than the PCR negative (P < .001 for HADS-A and P = .034 for HADS-D). The prevalence of anxiety and depression was significantly higher in female relatives (P = .046 for HADS-A and P = .009 for HADS-A). There was no significant correlation between HADS and age of the patient or education of the participants. The fact that the patients were hospitalised in the ICU during the pandemic was an independent risk factor for anxiety (AUC = 0.746) while restricted visitation in the ICU was an independent risk factor for depression (AUC = 0.703). CONCLUSION: Positive PCR and female gender were associated with both anxiety and depression while hospitalisation in the ICU due to COVID-19 was an independent risk factor for anxiety and restricted visitation in the ICU is an independent risk factor for depression.

Perioperative outcome and cost-effectiveness of spinal versus general anesthesia for lumbar spine surgery.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: General anesthesia (GA) is the most commonly used anesthetic technique for spinal surgery. This study aimed to compare spinal anesthesia (SA) and GA in patients undergoing spinal surgery, in terms of perioperative outcome and cost effectiveness. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 80 patients with ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status I-II. The patients were randomized to receive SA (n = 40) or GA (n = 40). Heart rate (HR), mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), blood loss, duration of surgery, duration of anesthesia, surgeon satisfaction, and duration in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) were recorded. Postoperative analgesic requirement, nausea and vomiting (PONV), perioperative hemodynamic variables, and anesthetic costs were determined. RESULTS: HR and MABP were significantly higher in the GA group than in the SA group at the end of surgery and at PACU admission. Duration of anesthesia, surgeon satisfaction, postoperative analgesic requirement, and anesthetic costs were significantly higher in the GA group. Mean blood loss was lower in the SA group than in the GA group, but the difference was not significant. Duration of surgery, duration in the PACU, perioperative hemodynamic variables, and complications were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: SA could be considered a reliable alternative to GA in patients undergoing lumber spine surgery, as it is clinically as effective as GA, but more cost effective.

Concordance and generalization of an AI algorithm with real-world clinical data in the pre-omicron and omicron era.

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, continue to evolve, which can lead to new variants. The objective of this study is to assess the agreement between real-world clinical data and an algorithm that utilizes laboratory markers and age to predict the progression of disease severity in COVID-19 patients during the pre-Omicron and Omicron variant periods. The study evaluated the performance of a deep learning (DL) algorithm in predicting disease severity scores for COVID-19 patients using data from the USA, Spain, and Turkey (Ankara City Hospital (ACH) data set). The algorithm was developed and validated using pre-Omicron era data and was tested on both pre-Omicron and Omicron-era data. The predictions were compared to the actual clinical outcomes using a multidisciplinary approach. The concordance index values for all datasets ranged from 0.71 to 0.81. In the ACH cohort, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.78 or higher was observed for severe patients in both the pre-Omicron and Omicron eras, which is consistent with the algorithm's performance in the development cohort.

Perinatology clinic in the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic: what harms, often teaches.

BACKGROUND: Compartmental models simplify the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases based on reported cases. In the absence of precautions, personal protective equipment, quarantine and social distancing, a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SuEIR) model with Unscented Kalman Filter for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) Forecasts in Turkey has revealed 174 641 infected people on August 15, 2020, whilst the reported case was 12 216. Through numerical experiments, the effects of quarantine, social distancing, and COVID-19 testing on the dynamics of the outbreak varies. We herein present the documentation of the work in a perinatology clinic during COVID-19 pandemic to find the reflection in a pandemic hospital as even in the pandemic, pregnancy complications and fetal diagnosis/therapy are time-sensitive and cannot be delayed. During the prevention of the horizontal transmission to the health-care workers (HCWs), testing all pregnant women with nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) undergoing birth, ultrasound examinations, invasive procedures appear to be the gold standard so that appropriate precautions can be taken if the screen is positive. Though it is logical, it may be incompatible with a busy obstetric practise as a pending polymerase chain reaction (PCR) result should never delay any emergent procedure. OBJECTIVE: We aim to describe the development of COVID-19 disease of 408 HCW out of 1462 by the exposure to pregnant women while providing obstetric care in a single tertiary perinatology unit under strict clinical triage, recommended precautions and wearing personal protective equipment and compare the maternal and perinatal outcome with those of the preceding three months. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study involving the pregnant women and the HCW with positive PCR for SARS-COV-2 were carried out to correlate with the horizontal transmission while documenting the perinatal work. RESULTS: 25 HCW, including nurses/midwives: 11, doctors: 7 and health technicians: 3 and support staff: 4 developed positive PCR for SARS-COV-2 while providing healthcare to 162 cases: mild-moderate (n = 146), severe (n = 12) and critical (n = 1) and asymptomatic (n = 3) in obstetric population. 22 out of 25 HCW were working in the perinatology unit. COVID-19 clinic was asymptomatic (n = 8), mild-moderate (13) or severe (n = 2) in HCW. However, "Exposed" group in the SuEIR model, both the pregnant women and the HCW that have already been infected and have not been tested, which have been also capable of infecting the "Susceptible" group could not be determined. Some of the HCW and the pregnant women in the "Exposed" group were tested and transferred to the "Infectious" group (which were reported to be PCR positive), while the rest of them who recovered, transitted to the so-called "Unreported Recovered" group. The ratio of the women with severe pre-eclampsia admitted to intensive care unit increased significantly during the lockdown (p = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In a nonstop pandemic perinatology clinic, exposure to 162 PCR positive pregnant women may be correlated with a 5.4% (22/408) documented horizontal transmission in the frontline HCW despite clinical triage and personal protective equipment.

Clinical and laboratory features of COVID-19: Predictors of severe prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged first in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and quickly spread throughout the world. Clinical and laboratory data are of importance to increase the success in the management of COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Data were obtained retrospectively from medical records of 191 hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from a tertiary single-center hospital between March and April 2020. Prognostic effects of variables on admission among patients who received intensive care unit (ICU) support and those who didn't require ICU care were compared. RESULTS: Patients required ICU care (n = 46) were older (median, 71 vs. 43 years), with more underlying comorbidities (76.1% vs. 33.1%). ICU patients had lower lymphocytes, percentage of large unstained cell (%LUC), hemoglobin, total protein, and albumin, but higher leucocytes, neutrophils, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), platelet-lymphocytes ratio (PLR), urea, creatinine, aspartate amino transferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and D-dimer when compared with non-critically ill patients (p < 0.001). A logistic regression model was created to include ferritin, %LUC, NLR, and D-dimer. %LUC decrease and D-dimer increase had the highest odds ratios (0.093 vs 5.597, respectively) to predict severe prognosis. D-dimer, CRP, and NLR had the highest AUC in the ROC analysis (0.896, 0.874, 0.861, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The comprehensive analysis of clinical and admission laboratory parameters to identify patients with severe prognosis is important not only for the follow-up of the patients but also to identify the pathophysiology of the disease. %LUC decrease and D-dimer, NLR, and CRP increases seem to be the most powerful laboratory predictors of severe prognosis.

Effects of Low-Flow Sevoflurane Anesthesia on Pulmonary Functions in Patients Undergoing Laparoscopic Abdominal Surgery.

Objective. The aim of this prospective, randomized study was to investigate the effects of low-flow sevoflurane anesthesia on the pulmonary functions in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Methods. Sixty American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classes I and II patients scheduled for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy were included in the study. Patients were randomly allocated to two study groups: high-flow sevoflurane anesthesia group (Group H, n = 30) and low-flow sevoflurane anesthesia group (Group L, n = 30). The fresh gas flow rate was of 4 L/min in high-flow sevoflurane anesthesia group and 1 L/min in low-flow sevoflurane anesthesia group. Heart rate (HR), mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), and end-tidal carbon dioxide concentration (ETCO2) were recorded. Pulmonary function tests were performed before and 2, 8, and 24 hours after surgery. Results. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of HR, MABP, SpO2, and ETCO2. Pulmonary function test results were similar in both groups at all measurement times. Conclusions. The effects of low-flow sevoflurane anesthesia on pulmonary functions are comparable to high-flow sevoflurane anesthesia in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Phenytoin induced toxic epidermal necrolysis.

Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis (TEN) which is characterized by the detachment of the epidermis from the dermis is a rare (1.89/1.000.000 annually) and potentially life-threatening condition. The overall mortality is 20 - 30%. TEN is characterized by sudden apoptosis of keratinocytes leading to mucous membrane erosions and epidermal detachment; detachment of less than 10% of the total body surface area defines Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (SJS); when greater than 30%, it defines TEN, while intermediate cases are called SJS/TEN overlap. Many drugs, including prednisolone, cyclosporin, and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), have been used in an attempt to halt the disease process. The use of phenytoin as a prophylactic anticonvulsant after brain surgery, particularly for brain tumors, is a common practice, regardless of whether the patient has a previous history of convulsions. This report described a case of haemorrhagic stroke where phenytoin use induced TEN.

Intraoperative low-dose ketamine infusion reduces acute postoperative pain following total knee replacement surgery: a prospective, randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of intraoperative low-dose ketamine with general anesthesia on postoperative pain after total knee replacement surgery. STUDY DESIGN: A randomized, double-blind comparative study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Turkey, from January and June 2011. METHODOLOGY: Sixty adults undergoing total knee arthroplasty were enrolled in this study. The patients were randomly allocated into two groups of equal size to receive either racemic ketamine infusion (6 µg/kg/minute) or the same volume of saline. A visual analogue scale (VAS) was used to measure each patient's level of pain at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours after surgery. Time to first analgesic request, postoperative morphine consumption and the incidence of side effects were also recorded. RESULTS: Low-dose ketamine infusion prolonged the time to first analgesic request. It also reduced postoperative cumulative morphine consumption at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours postsurgery (p < 0.001). Postoperative VAS scores were also significantly lower in the ketamine group than placebo, at all observation times. Incidences of side effects were similar in both study groups. CONCLUSION: Intraoperative continuous low-dose ketamine infusion reduced pain and postoperative analgesic consumption without affecting the incidence of side effects.

Effects of ketamine, propofol, and ketofol on proinflammatory cytokines and markers of oxidative stress in a rat model of endotoxemia-induced acute lung injury.

Intravenous lipopolysaccharide (LPS) leads to acute lung injury (ALI) in rats. The purpose of this study was to examine the anti-inflammatory and antioxidant efficacy of ketamine, propofol, and ketofol in a rat model of ALI. We induced ALI in rats via intravenous injection of LPS (15 mg kg(-1)). The animals were randomly separated into five groups: control, LPS only, LPS + ketamine (10 mg·kg(-1)·h(-1)), LPS + propofol (10 mg·kg(-1)·h(-1)), LPS + ketofol (5 mg·kg(-1)·h(-1) ketamine + 5 mg·kg(-1)·h(-1) propofol). LPS resulted in an increase in the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, mRNA expression related with inflammation, production of nitric oxide, and lipid peroxidation. Ketamine prevented the increase in markers of oxidative stress and inflammation mediators, both in plasma and lung tissue. Propofol decreased the levels of cytokines in plasma and lung tissue, whereas it had no effect on the IL-1-beta level in lung tissue. Ketamine downregulated mediators of lung tissue inflammation and reduced the level of circulating cytokines and protected lung tissue against lipid peroxidation. Ketofol decreased the level of TNF-α and IL-1ß in plasma, as well as expression of cyclooxygenase-2 mRNA and the nitrate/nitrite level in lung tissue. The results of this investigation support the hypothesis that ketamine may be effective in preventing ALI.