Multicountry Review of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotype Distribution Among Adults With Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Nonbacteremic community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading presentation of severe pneumococcal disease in adults. Serotype-specific urinary antigen detection (UAD) assay can detect serotypes causing pneumococcal CAP, including nonbacteremic cases, and guide recommendations for use of higher valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). METHODS: Adult CAP serotype distribution studies that used both Pfizer UADs (UAD1, detects PCV13 serotypes; UAD2, detects PCV20 non-PCV13 serotypes plus 2, 9N, 17F, and 20) were identified by review of an internal study database and included if results were published. The percentages of all-cause radiologically confirmed CAP (RAD + CAP) due to individual or grouped (PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20) serotypes as detected from culture or UAD were reported. RESULTS: Six studies (n = 2, United States; n = 1 each, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Greece) were included. The percentage of RAD + CAP among adults ≥18 years with PCV13 serotypes equaled 4.6% to 12.9%, with PCV15 serotypes 5.9% to 14.5%, and with PCV20 serotypes 7.8% to 23.8%. The percentage of RAD + CAP due to PCV15 and PCV20 serotypes was 1.1-1.3 and 1.3-1.8 times higher than PCV13 serotypes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PCV13 serotypes remain a cause of RAD + CAP among adults even in settings with pediatric PCV use. Higher valency PCVs among adults could address an important proportion of RAD + CAP in this population.

Association of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 infection among older adult recipients of COVID-19 vaccines: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal carriage is associated with increased acquisition and duration of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults. While pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent carriage of vaccine-serotype pneumococci, their potential impact on COVID-19 related outcomes remains poorly understood in populations with prevalent immunity against SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of adults aged ≥65 years in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) healthcare system who had received ≥2 COVID-19 vaccine doses, comparing risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection between 1 January, 2021 and 31 December, 2022 among recipients and non-recipients of PCV13. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios via Cox proportional hazards models, employing multiple strategies to mitigate bias from differential test-seeking behavior. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection comparing PCV13 recipients to non-recipients was 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-0.95), corresponding to prevention of 3.9 (2.6-5.3) infections per 100 person-years. Following receipt of 2, 3, and ≥4 COVID-19 vaccine doses, aHRs were 0.85 (0.81-0.89), 0.94 (0.90-0.97), and 0.99 (0.93-1.04), respectively. The aHR for persons who had not received COVID-19 vaccination in the preceding 6 months was 0.90 (0.86-0.93), versus 0.94 (0.91-0.98) within 6 months after receipt of any dose. Similarly, the aHR was 0.92 (0.89-0.94) for persons without history of documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, versus 1.00 (0.90-1.12) for persons with documented prior infection. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults who had received ≥2 COVID-19 vaccine doses, PCV13 was associated with modest protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Protective effects of PCV13 were greater among individuals expected to have weaker immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Against Virus-Associated Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Among Adults: A Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Interactions of Streptococcus pneumoniae with viruses feature in the pathogenesis of numerous respiratory illnesses. METHODS: We undertook a case-control study among adults at Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 2015 and 2019. Case patients had diagnoses of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI; including pneumonia or nonpneumonia LRTI diagnoses), with viral infections detected by multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing. Controls without LRTI diagnoses were matched to case patients by demographic and clinical attributes. We measured vaccine effectiveness (VE) for 13-valent (PCV13) against virus-associated LRTI by determining the adjusted odds ratio for PCV13 receipt, comparing case patients and controls. RESULTS: Primary analyses included 13 856 case patients with virus-associated LRTI and 227 887 matched controls. Receipt of PCV13 was associated with a VE of 24.9% (95% confidence interval, 18.4%-30.9%) against virus-associated pneumonia and 21.5% (10.9%-30.9%) against other (nonpneumonia) virus-associated LRTIs. We estimated VEs of 26.8% (95% confidence interval, 19.9%-33.1%) and 18.6% (9.3%-27.0%) against all virus-associated LRTI episodes diagnosed in inpatient and outpatient settings, respectively. We identified statistically significant protection against LRTI episodes associated with influenza A and B viruses, endemic human coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, and enteroviruses but not respiratory syncytial virus or adenoviruses. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults, PCV13 conferred moderate protection against virus-associated LRTI. The impacts of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines may be mediated, in part, by effects on polymicrobial interactions between pneumococci and respiratory viruses.

Distribution of Serotypes Causing Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Children From High-Income Countries and the Impact of Pediatric Pneumococcal Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The introduction and adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) into pediatric national immunization programs (NIPs) has led to large decreases in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence caused by vaccine serotypes. Despite these reductions, the global IPD burden in children remains significant. METHODS: We collected serotype-specific IPD data from surveillance systems or hospital networks of all 30 high-income countries that met inclusion criteria. Data sources included online databases, surveillance system reports, and peer-reviewed literature. Percentage of serotyped cases covered were calculated for all countries combined and by PCV type in the pediatric NIP. RESULTS: We identified 8012 serotyped IPD cases in children <5 or ≤5 years old. PCV13 serotype IPD caused 37.4% of total IPD cases, including 57.1% and 25.2% for countries with PCV10 or PCV13 in the pediatric NIP, respectively, most commonly due to serotypes 3 and 19A (11.4% and 13.3%, respectively, across all countries). In PCV10 countries, PCV15 and PCV20 would cover an additional 45.1% and 55.6% of IPD beyond serotypes contained in PCV10, largely due to coverage of serotype 19A. In PCV13 countries, PCV15 and PCV20 would cover an additional 10.6% and 38.2% of IPD beyond serotypes contained in PCV13. The most common IPD serotypes covered by higher valency PCVs were 10A (5.2%), 12F (5.1%), and 22F and 33F (3.5% each). CONCLUSIONS: Much of the remaining IPD burden is due to serotypes included in PCV15 and PCV20. The inclusion of these next generation PCVs into existing pediatric NIPs may further reduce the incidence of childhood IPD.

Burden of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections Preventable by Adult Immunization With 15- and 20-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Updated recommendations of the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices indicate that all adults aged ≥65 years and adults aged <65 years with comorbid conditions should receive 15- and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15/20). We aimed to assess the potential impact of these recommendations on the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) among adults. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of LRTI cases and associated hospital admissions among enrollees of Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 2016 through 2019. We used a counterfactual inference framework to estimate excess LRTI-associated risk of death up to 180 days after diagnosis. We used prior estimates of PCV13 effectiveness against LRTI to model potential direct effects of PCV15/20 by age group and risk status. RESULTS: Use of PCV15 and PCV20, respectively, could prevent 89.3 (95% confidence interval, 41.3-131.8) and 108.6 (50.4-159.1) medically attended LRTI cases; 21.9 (10.1-32.0) and 26.6 (12.4-38.7) hospitalized LRTI cases; and 7.1 (3.3-10.5) and 8.7 (4.0-12.7) excess LRTI-associated deaths, each per 10 000 person-years. Among at-risk adults aged <65 years, use of PCV15 and PCV20 could prevent 85.7 (39.6-131.5) and 102.7 (47.8-156.7) medically attended LRTI cases per 10 000 person-years; 5.1 (2.4-8.6) and 6.2 (2.8-10.2) LRTI hospitalizations per 10 000 person-years, and 0.9 (0.4-1.4) and 1.1 (0.5-1.7) excess LRTI-associated deaths per 10 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest recent recommendations, including PCV15/20 within adult pneumococcal vaccine series, may substantially reduce LRTI burden.

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Among Older Adults Receiving Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Suggests Interactions Between Streptococcus pneumoniae and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in the Respiratory Tract.

BACKGROUND: While secondary pneumococcal pneumonia occurs less commonly after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than after other viral infections, it remains unclear whether other interactions occur between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Streptococcus pneumoniae. METHODS: We probed potential interactions between these pathogens among adults aged ≥65 years by measuring associations of COVID-19 outcomes with pneumococcal vaccination (13-valent conjugate vaccine [PCV13] and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine [PPSV23]). We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) using Cox proportional hazards models with doubly robust inverse-propensity weighting. We assessed effect modification by antibiotic exposure to further test the biologic plausibility of a causal role for pneumococci. RESULTS: Among 531 033 adults, there were 3677 COVID-19 diagnoses, leading to 1075 hospitalizations and 334 fatalities, between 1 March and 22 July 2020. Estimated aHRs for COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and mortality associated with prior PCV13 receipt were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], .59-.72), 0.68 (95% CI, .57-.83), and 0.68 (95% CI, .49-.95), respectively. Prior PPSV23 receipt was not associated with protection against the 3 outcomes. COVID-19 diagnosis was not associated with prior PCV13 within 90 days following antibiotic receipt, whereas aHR estimates were 0.65 (95% CI, .50-.84) and 0.62 (95% CI, .56-.70) during the risk periods 91-365 days and >365 days, respectively, following antibiotic receipt. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced risk of COVID-19 among PCV13 recipients, transiently attenuated by antibiotic exposure, suggests that pneumococci may interact with SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Infection and Pneumonia Among Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Among older adults, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) has been found efficacious against nonbacteremic pneumonia associated with vaccine-serotype pneumococci. However, the burden of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and pneumonia preventable by direct immunization of older adults continues to be debated. METHODS: We analyzed data from an open cohort of adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Southern California health plans from 2016 to 2019 who received PCV13 concordant with US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices guidelines. We estimated PCV13 vaccine effectiveness (VE) via the adjusted hazard ratio for first LRTI and pneumonia episodes during each respiratory season, comparing PCV13-exposed and PCV13-unexposed time at risk for each participant using a self-matched inference framework. Analyses used Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by individual. RESULTS: Among 42 700 adults who met inclusion criteria, VE was 9.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2% to 16.3%) against all-cause medically attended LRTI and 8.8% (95% CI, -.2% to 17.0%) against all-cause medically attended pneumonia. In contrast, we did not identify evidence of protection against LRTI and pneumonia following receipt of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine. PCV13 prevented 0.7 (95% CI, .2 to 1.4) and 0.5 (95% CI, .0 to 1.0) cases of LRTI and pneumonia, respectively, per 100 vaccinated persons annually; over 5 years, 1 case of LRTI and 1 case of pneumonia were prevented for every 27 and 42 individuals vaccinated, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PCV13 vaccination among older adults substantially reduced incidence of medically attended respiratory illness. Direct immunization of older adults is an effective strategy to combat residual disease burden associated with PCV13-type pneumococci.

The impact of serotype-specific vaccination on phylodynamic parameters of Streptococcus pneumoniae and the pneumococcal pan-genome.

In the United States, the introduction of the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) largely eliminated vaccine serotypes (VT); non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) subsequently increased in carriage and disease. Vaccination also disrupts the composition of the pneumococcal pangenome, which includes mobile genetic elements and polymorphic non-capsular antigens important for virulence, transmission, and pneumococcal ecology. Antigenic proteins are of interest for future vaccines; yet, little is known about how the they are affected by PCV use. To investigate the evolutionary impact of vaccination, we assessed recombination, evolution, and pathogen demographic history of 937 pneumococci collected from 1998-2012 among Navajo and White Mountain Apache Native American communities. We analyzed changes in the pneumococcal pangenome, focusing on metabolic loci and 19 polymorphic protein antigens. We found the impact of PCV on the pneumococcal population could be observed in reduced diversity, a smaller pangenome, and changing frequencies of accessory clusters of orthologous groups (COGs). Post-PCV7, diversity rebounded through clonal expansion of NVT lineages and inferred in-migration of two previously unobserved lineages. Accessory COGs frequencies trended toward pre-PCV7 values with increasing time since vaccine introduction. Contemporary frequencies of protein antigen variants are better predicted by pre-PCV7 values (1998-2000) than the preceding period (2006-2008), suggesting balancing selection may have acted in maintaining variant frequencies in this population. Overall, we present the largest genomic analysis of pneumococcal carriage in the United States to date, which includes a snapshot of a true vaccine-naïve community prior to the introduction of PCV7. These data improve our understanding of pneumococcal evolution and emphasize the need to consider pangenome composition when inferring the impact of vaccination and developing future protein-based pneumococcal vaccines.

Association of Laboratory Methods, Colonization Density, and Age With Detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae in the Nasopharynx.

Culture-based methods for detecting Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx lack sensitivity. In this study, we aimed to compare the performance of culture and molecular methods in detecting pneumococcus in the nasopharynx of healthy individuals and to evaluate the associations of age and colonization density with detection. Between 2010 and 2012, nasopharyngeal specimens were collected from healthy individuals living on Navajo Nation and White Mountain Apache Tribal lands in the United States. Pneumococci were detected by means of broth-enrichment culture and autolysin-encoding gene (lytA) quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Among 982 persons evaluated (median age, 18.7 years; 47% male), 35% were culture-positive and an additional 27% were qPCR-positive. Agreement between culture and qPCR was 70.9% but was higher among children (age <18 years) (75.9%-84.4%) than among adults (age ≥18 years) (61.0%-74.6%). The mean density of colonization was lower for culture-negative samples (3.14 log10 copies/mL) than for culture-positive samples (5.02 log10 copies/mL), overall and for all age groups. The percent culture-positive increased with increasing density, exceeding 80% at densities of ≥10,000 copies/mL. Mean colonization density decreased with age. Use of qPCR improved detection of pneumococcus in the nasopharynx of healthy individuals. This finding was most notable among adults, probably because of improved detection of low-density colonization.

Association of Pneumococcal Protein Antigen Serology With Age and Antigenic Profile of Colonizing Isolates.

Background: Several Streptococcus pneumoniae proteins play a role in pathogenesis and are being investigated as vaccine targets. It is largely unknown whether naturally acquired antibodies reduce the risk of colonization with strains expressing a particular antigenic variant. Methods: Serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers to 28 pneumococcal protein antigens were measured among 242 individuals aged <6 months-78 years in Native American communities between 2007 and 2009. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected >- 30 days after serum collection, and the antigen variant in each pneumococcal isolate was determined using genomic data. We assessed the association between preexisting variant-specific antibody titers and subsequent carriage of pneumococcus expressing a particular antigen variant. Results: Antibody titers often increased across pediatric groups before decreasing among adults. Individuals with low titers against group 3 pneumococcal surface protein C (PspC) variants were more likely to be colonized with pneumococci expressing those variants. For other antigens, variant-specific IgG titers do not predict colonization. Conclusion: We observed an inverse association between variant-specific antibody concentration and homologous pneumococcal colonization for only 1 protein. Further assessment of antibody repertoires may elucidate the nature of antipneumococcal antibody-mediated mucosal immunity while informing vaccine development.

Relating Pneumococcal Carriage Among Children to Disease Rates Among Adults Before and After the Introduction of Conjugate Vaccines.

The use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in children has a strong indirect effect on disease rates in adults. When children are vaccinated with PCVs, other serotypes that are not targeted by the vaccine can increase in frequency (serotype replacement) and reduce the direct and indirect benefits of the vaccine. To understand and predict the likely impacts of serotype replacement, it is important to know how patterns in the transmission of serotypes among children relate to disease rates in adults. We used data on pneumococcal carriage and disease from Navajo Nation children and adults collected before and after the routine use of PCVs (1998-2012). Using regression models within a Bayesian framework, we found that serotype-specific carriage and invasiveness (disease incidence divided by carriage prevalence) had similar patterns in children and adults. Moreover, carriage in children, invasiveness in children, and a serotype-specific random intercept (which captured additional variation associated with the serotypes) could predict the incidence serotype-specific pneumococcal disease in adults 18-39 years of age and those 40 years of age or older in the era of routine use of PCVs. These models could help us predict the effects of future pneumococcal vaccine use in children on disease rates in adults, and the modeling approach developed here could be used to test these findings in other settings.

Seasonal drivers of pneumococcal disease incidence: impact of bacterial carriage and viral activity.

BACKGROUND: Winter-seasonal epidemics of pneumococcal disease provide an opportunity to understand the drivers of incidence. We sought to determine whether seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease is caused by increased nasopharyngeal transmission of the bacteria or increased susceptibility to invasive infections driven by cocirculating winter respiratory viruses. METHODS: We analyzed pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease data collected from children <7 years old in the Navajo/White Mountain Apache populations between 1996 and 2012. Regression models were used to quantify seasonal variations in carriage prevalence, carriage density, and disease incidence. We also fit a multivariate model to determine the contribution of carriage prevalence and RSV activity to pneumococcal disease incidence while controlling for shared seasonal factors. RESULTS: The seasonal patterns of invasive pneumococcal disease epidemics varied significantly by clinical presentation: bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia incidence peaked in late winter, whereas invasive nonpneumonia pneumococcal incidence peaked in autumn. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence and density also varied seasonally, with peak prevalence occurring in late autumn. In a multivariate model, RSV activity was associated with significant increases in bacteremic pneumonia cases (attributable percentage, 15.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8%-26.1%) but was not associated with invasive nonpneumonia infections (8.0%; 95% CI, -4.8% to 19.3%). In contrast, seasonal variations in carriage prevalence were associated with significant increases in invasive nonpneumonia infections (31.4%; 95% CI, 8.8%-51.4%) but not with bacteremic pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonality of invasive pneumococcal pneumonia could be due to increased susceptibility to invasive infection triggered by viral pathogens, whereas seasonality of other invasive pneumococcal infections might be primarily driven by increased nasopharyngeal transmission of the bacteria.

Characterization of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates obtained from the middle ear fluid of US children, 2011-2021.

Introduction: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), including higher valency vaccines such as PCV20, have the potential to reduce pediatric otitis media. We assessed serotype distribution, potential PCV coverage, and antimicrobial susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates cultured from middle ear fluid (MEF) of US children age ≤5 years. Methods: S. pneumoniae isolates identified from US hospitals participating in the SENTRY Antimicrobial Surveillance program from 2011 to 2021 were included. Serotypes were determined by in silico analysis based on Pneumococcal Capsular Typing methodology. The percentage of isolates belonging to serotypes included in PCV13 (serotypes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, 23F), PCV15 (PCV13 plus 22F, 33F), and PCV20 (PCV13 plus, 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, 15B, 22F and 33F) was calculated. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by broth microdilution and interpreted using CLSI criteria. Nonsusceptibility was defined as isolates that were intermediate or resistant to a selected antimicrobial. Results: Among the 199 S. pneumoniae isolates that were identified, 56.8% were from children age <2 years. Six serotypes accounted for around 60% of isolates: 35B (16.6%), 15B (14.6%), 15A (7.5%), 19A (7.5%), 19F (7.5%), and 3 (7.0%). Serotypes included in PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20 accounted for 23.1%, 30.2%, and 54.8% of isolates, respectively. Overall, 45.2% of isolates were penicillin non-susceptible, and 13.6% were MDR, of which 48% were serotype 19A. Seven serotypes (19A, 15A, 15B, 15C, 23A, 33F, and 35B) accounted for the majority of non-susceptible isolates. Discussion: PCVs, particularly PCV20, may prevent a substantial fraction of S. pneumoniae otitis media (OM), including OM due to non-susceptible serotypes. The addition of serotypes 15A, 23A, and 35B would improve coverage against susceptible and non-susceptible pneumococcal OM.

Effects of PCV10 and PCV13 on pneumococcal serotype 6C disease, carriage, and antimicrobial resistance.

BACKGROUND: The cross-protection of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) against serotype 6C is not clearly documented, although 6C represents a substantial burden of pneumococcal disease in recent years. A systematic review by the World Health Organization that covered studies through 2016 concluded that available data were insufficient to determine if either PCV10 (which contains serotype 6B but not 6A) or PCV13 (containing serotype 6A and 6B) conferred protection against 6C. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of randomized controlled trials and observational studies published between January 2010 - August 2022 (Medline/Embase), covering the direct, indirect, and overall effect of PCV10 and PCV13 against 6C invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), non-IPD, nasopharyngeal carriage (NPC), and antimicrobial resistance (AMR). RESULTS: Of 2548 publications identified, 112 were included. Direct vaccine effectiveness against 6C IPD in children ranged between 70 and 85 % for ≥ 1 dose PCV13 (n = 3 studies), was 94 % in fully PCV13 vaccinated children (n = 2), and -14 % for ≥ 1 dose of PCV10 (n = 1). Compared to PCV7, PCV13 efficacy against 6C NPC in children was 66 % (n = 1). Serotype 6C IPD rates or NPC prevalence declined post-PCV13 in most studies in children (n = 5/6) and almost half of studies in adults (n = 5/11), while it increased post-PCV10 for IPD and non-IPD in all studies (n = 6/6). Changes in AMR prevalence were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to PCV10, PCV13 vaccination consistently protected against 6C IPD and NPC in children, and provided some level of indirect protection to adults, supporting that serotype 6A but not 6B provides cross-protection to 6C. Vaccine policy makers and regulators should consider the effects of serotype 6A-containing PCVs against serotype 6C disease in their decisions.

Prediction of post-PCV13 pneumococcal evolution using invasive disease data enhanced by inverse-invasiveness weighting.

After introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), serotype replacement occurred in Streptococcus pneumoniae. Predicting which pneumococcal strains will become common in carriage after vaccination can enhance vaccine design, public health interventions, and understanding of pneumococcal evolution. Invasive pneumococcal isolates were collected during 1998-2018 by the Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs). Carriage data from Massachusetts (MA) and Southwest United States were used to calculate weights. Using pre-vaccine data, serotype-specific inverse-invasiveness weights were defined as the ratio of the proportion of the serotype in carriage to the proportion in invasive data. Genomic data were processed under bioinformatic pipelines to define genetically similar sequence clusters (i.e., strains), and accessory genes (COGs) present in 5-95% of isolates. Weights were applied to adjust observed strain proportions and COG frequencies. The negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) model predicted strain proportions by calculating the post-vaccine strain composition in the weighted invasive disease population that would best match pre-vaccine COG frequencies. Inverse-invasiveness weighting increased the correlation of COG frequencies between invasive and carriage data in linear or logit scale for pre-vaccine, post-PCV7, and post-PCV13; and between different epochs in the invasive data. Weighting the invasive data significantly improved the NFDS model's accuracy in predicting strain proportions in the carriage population in the post-PCV13 epoch, with the adjusted R2 increasing from 0.254 before weighting to 0.545 after weighting. The weighting system adjusted invasive disease data to better represent the pneumococcal carriage population, allowing the NFDS mechanism to predict strain proportions in carriage in the post-PCV13 epoch. Our methods enrich the value of genomic sequences from invasive disease surveillance.IMPORTANCEStreptococcus pneumoniae, a common colonizer in the human nasopharynx, can cause invasive diseases including pneumonia, bacteremia, and meningitis mostly in children under 5 years or older adults. The PCV7 was introduced in 2000 in the United States within the pediatric population to prevent disease and reduce deaths, followed by PCV13 in 2010, PCV15 in 2022, and PCV20 in 2023. After the removal of vaccine serotypes, the prevalence of carriage remained stable as the vacated pediatric ecological niche was filled with certain non-vaccine serotypes. Predicting which pneumococcal clones, and which serotypes, will be most successful in colonization after vaccination can enhance vaccine design and public health interventions, while also improving our understanding of pneumococcal evolution. While carriage data, which are collected from the pneumococcal population that is competing to colonize and transmit, are most directly relevant to evolutionary studies, invasive disease data are often more plentiful. Previously, evolutionary models based on negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the accessory genome were shown to predict which non-vaccine strains and serotypes were most successful in colonization following the introduction of PCV7. Here, we show that an inverse-invasiveness weighting system applied to invasive disease surveillance data allows the NFDS model to predict strain proportions in the projected carriage population in the post-PCV13/pre-PCV15 and pre-PCV20 epoch. The significance of our research lies in using a sample of invasive disease surveillance data to extend the use of NFDS as an evolutionary mechanism to predict post-PCV13 population dynamics. This has shown that we can correct for biased sampling that arises from differences in virulence and can enrich the value of genomic data from disease surveillance and advance our understanding of how NFDS impacts carriage population dynamics after both PCV7 and PCV13 vaccination.

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 population structure in the era of conjugate vaccines, 2001-2018.

Background. Despite use of highly effective conjugate vaccines, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and disproportionately affects Indigenous populations. Although included in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), which was introduced in 2010, serotype 3 continues to cause disease among Indigenous communities in the Southwest USA. In the Navajo Nation, serotype 3 IPD incidence increased among adults (3.8/100 000 in 2001-2009 and 6.2/100 000 in 2011-2019); in children the disease persisted although the rates dropped from 5.8/100 000 to 2.3/100 000.Methods. We analysed the genomic epidemiology of serotype 3 isolates collected from 129 adults and 63 children with pneumococcal carriage (n=61) or IPD (n=131) from 2001 to 2018 of the Navajo Nation. Using whole-genome sequencing data, we determined clade membership and assessed changes in serotype 3 population structure over time.Results. The serotype 3 population structure was characterized by three dominant subpopulations: clade II (n=90, 46.9 %) and clade Iα (n=59, 30.7 %), which fall into Clonal Complex (CC) 180, and a non-CC180 clade (n=43, 22.4 %). The proportion of clade II-associated IPD cases increased significantly from 2001 to 2010 to 2011-2018 among adults (23.1-71.8 %; P<0.001) but not in children (27.3-33.3 %; P=0.84). Over the same period, the proportion of clade II-associated carriage increased; this was statistically significant among children (23.3-52.6 %; P=0.04) but not adults (0-50.0 %, P=0.08).Conclusions. In this setting with persistent serotype 3 IPD and carriage, clade II has increased since 2010. Genomic changes may be contributing to the observed trends in serotype 3 carriage and disease over time.

Using pneumococcal carriage data to monitor postvaccination changes in invasive disease.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced worldwide. However, few developing countries have high-quality surveillance systems available for monitoring vaccine impact. We evaluated whether data from nasopharyngeal carriage studies can be used to accurately monitor post-PCV changes in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children under 5 years of age. For various dates during 1991-2010, data on nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage and on IPD before and after administration of 7-valent PCV (PCV7) were available from England and Wales, the Netherlands, the Navajo and White Mountain Apache American Indian populations, and the US states of Massachusetts and Alaska. We estimated the change in carriage prevalence for each serotype in each study and then either calculated the average change (inverse variance-weighted) among vaccine and nonvaccine serotypes (model 1) or used mixed-effects models to estimate the change for each serotype individually, pooling serotype data within or between studies (models 2 and 3). We then multiplied these values by the proportion of IPD caused by each serotype during the pre-PCV7 period to obtain an estimate of post-PCV7 disease incidence. Model 1 accurately captured overall changes in IPD incidence following PCV7 introduction for most studies, while the more detailed models, models 2 and 3, were less accurate. Carriage data can be used in this simple model to estimate post-PCV changes in IPD incidence.

Risk of Pneumococcal Disease in US Adults by Age and Risk Profile.

Background: Older age and certain medical conditions are known to modify the risk of pneumococcal disease among adults. We quantified the risk of pneumococcal disease among adults with and without medical conditions in the United States between 2016 and 2019. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used administrative health claims data from Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database. Incidence rates of pneumococcal disease-all-cause pneumonia, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), and pneumococcal pneumonia-were estimated by age group, risk profile (healthy, chronic, other, and immunocompromising medical condition), and individual medical condition. Rate ratios and 95% CIs were calculated comparing adults with risk conditions with age-stratified healthy counterparts. Results: Among adults aged 18-49 years, 50-64 years, and ≥65 years, the rates of all-cause pneumonia per 100 000 patient-years were 953, 2679, and 6930, respectively. For the 3 age groups, the rate ratios of adults with any chronic medical condition vs healthy counterparts were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.8-2.9), 3.3 (95% CI, 3.2-3.3), and 3.2 (95% CI, 3.2-3.2), while the rate ratios of adults with any immunocompromising condition vs healthy counterparts were 4.2 (95% CI, 4.1-4.3), 5.8 (95% CI, 5.7-5.9), and 5.3 (95% CI, 5.3-5.4). Similar trends were observed for IPD and pneumococcal pneumonia. Persons with other medical conditions, such as obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and neurologic disorders, were associated with increased risk of pneumococcal disease. Conclusions: The risk of pneumococcal disease was high among older adults and adults with certain risk conditions, particularly immunocompromising conditions.

Distribution of serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in older adults from high-income countries and impact of pediatric and adult vaccination policies.

BACKGROUND: Neither indirect protection through use of 13-valent and 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13 and PCV10) in pediatric National Immunization Programs (NIPs) nor direct vaccination with the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine have eliminated vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in older adults. Vaccinating older adults with higher-valency PCV15 and PCV20 could address remaining IPD due to pediatric PCV serotypes plus additional IPD due to serotypes included in these vaccines. METHODS: We collected serotype-specific IPD data in older adults (≥65 years in most countries), from national or regional surveillance systems or hospital networks of 33 high-income countries. Data were from official government websites, online databases, surveillance system reports, published literature, and personal communication with in-country investigators. Average percentages of IPD serotypes were calculated. RESULTS: Among 52,905 cases of IPD with a serotype identified, PCV13 serotypes accounted for 33.7% of IPD (55.8% and 30.6% for countries with PCV10 and PCV13 in the pediatric NIP), most commonly serotypes 3 (14.9%) and 19A (7.0%). PCV15 and PCV20 would cover an additional 10.4% and 32.9% of older adult IPD beyond PCV13 serotypes (PCV10 countries: 7.7% and 23.3%; PCV13 countries: 10.6% and 34.6%). The most common of these additional serotypes were 8 (9.9%), 22F (7.9%), 12F (4.6%), and 11A (3.3%). PPSV23 policies for older adults were not correlated with lower IPD percentages due to PPSV23 serotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating older adults with higher-valency PCVs, especially PCV20, could substantially reduce the remaining IPD burden in high-income countries, regardless of current PCV use in pediatric NIPs and adult PPSV23 policies.