A modest increase in fire weather overcomes resistance to fire spread in recently burned boreal forests.

Recently burned boreal forests have lower aboveground fuel loads, generating a negative feedback to subsequent wildfires. Despite this feedback, short-interval reburns (≤20 years between fires) are possible under extreme weather conditions. Reburns have consequences for ecosystem recovery, leading to enduring vegetation change. In this study, we characterize the strength of the fire-fuel feedback in recently burned Canadian boreal forests and the weather conditions that overwhelm resistance to fire spread in recently burned areas. We used a dataset of daily fire spread for thousands of large boreal fires, interpolated from remotely sensed thermal anomalies to which we associated local weather from ERA5-Land for each day of a fire's duration. We classified days with >3 ha of fire growth as spread days and defined burned pixels overlapping a fire perimeter ≤20 years old as short-interval reburns. Results of a logistic regression showed that the odds of fire spread in recently burned areas were ~50% lower than in long-interval fires; however, all Canadian boreal ecozones experienced short-interval reburning (1981-2021), with over 100,000 ha reburning annually. As fire weather conditions intensify, the resistance to fire spread declines, allowing fire to spread in recently burned areas. The weather associated with short-interval fire spread days was more extreme than the conditions during long-interval spread, but overall differences were modest (e.g. relative humidity 2.6% lower). The frequency of fire weather conducive to short-interval fire spread has significantly increased in the western boreal forest due to climate warming and drying (1981-2021). Our results suggest an ongoing degradation of fire-fuel feedbacks, which is likely to continue with climatic warming and drying.

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada.

Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

Soil data for mapping paludification in black spruce forests of eastern Canada.

Soil data and soil mapping are indispensable tools in sustainable forest management. In northern boreal ecosystems, paludification is defined as the accumulation of partially decomposed organic matter over saturated mineral soils, a process that reduces tree regeneration and forest growth. Given this negative effect on forest productivity, spatial prediction of paludification in black spruce stands is important in forest management. This paper provides a description of the soil database to predict organic layer thickness (OLT) as a proxy of paludification in northeastern Canada. The database contains 13,944 OLT measurements (in cm) and their respective GPS coordinates. We collected OLT measurements from georeferenced ground plots and transects from several previous projects. Despite the variety of sources, the sampling design for each dataset was similar, consisting of manual measurements of OLT with a hand probe. OLT measurements were variable across the study area, with a mean ± standard deviation of 21 ± 24 cm (ranging from a minimum of 0 cm to a maximum of 150 cm), and the distribution tended toward positive skewing, with a large number of low OLT values and fewer high OLT values. The dataset has been used to perform OLT mapping at 30-m resolution and predict the risk of paludification in northeastern Canada (Mansuy et al., 2018) [1]. The spatially explicit and continuous database is also available to support national and international efforts in digital soil mapping.