A prediction model for electroconvulsive therapy effectiveness in patients with major depressive disorder from the Dutch ECT Consortium (DEC).

Reliable predictors for electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) effectiveness would allow a more precise and personalized approach for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Prediction models were created using a priori selected clinical variables based on previous meta-analyses. Multivariable linear regression analysis was used, applying backwards selection to determine predictor variables while allowing non-linear relations, to develop a prediction model for depression outcome post-ECT (and logistic regression for remission and response as secondary outcome measures). Internal validation and internal-external cross-validation were used to examine overfitting and generalizability of the model's predictive performance. In total, 1892 adult patients with MDD were included from 22 clinical and research cohorts of the twelve sites within the Dutch ECT Consortium. The final primary prediction model showed several factors that significantly predicted a lower depression score post-ECT: higher age, shorter duration of the current depressive episode, severe MDD with psychotic features, lower level of previous antidepressant resistance in the current episode, higher pre-ECT global cognitive functioning, absence of a comorbid personality disorder, and a lower level of failed psychotherapy in the current episode. The optimism-adjusted R² of the final model was 19%. This prediction model based on readily available clinical information can reduce uncertainty of ECT outcomes and hereby inform clinical decision-making, as prompt referral for ECT may be particularly beneficial for individuals with the above-mentioned characteristics. However, despite including a large number of pretreatment factors, a large proportion of the variance in depression outcome post-ECT remained unpredictable.

Information extraction from free text for aiding transdiagnostic psychiatry: constructing NLP pipelines tailored to clinicians' needs.

BACKGROUND: Developing predictive models for precision psychiatry is challenging because of unavailability of the necessary data: extracting useful information from existing electronic health record (EHR) data is not straightforward, and available clinical trial datasets are often not representative for heterogeneous patient groups. The aim of this study was constructing a natural language processing (NLP) pipeline that extracts variables for building predictive models from EHRs. We specifically tailor the pipeline for extracting information on outcomes of psychiatry treatment trajectories, applicable throughout the entire spectrum of mental health disorders ("transdiagnostic"). METHODS: A qualitative study into beliefs of clinical staff on measuring treatment outcomes was conducted to construct a candidate list of variables to extract from the EHR. To investigate if the proposed variables are suitable for measuring treatment effects, resulting themes were compared to transdiagnostic outcome measures currently used in psychiatry research and compared to the HDRS (as a gold standard) through systematic review, resulting in an ideal set of variables. To extract these from EHR data, a semi-rule based NLP pipeline was constructed and tailored to the candidate variables using Prodigy. Classification accuracy and F1-scores were calculated and pipeline output was compared to HDRS scores using clinical notes from patients admitted in 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: Analysis of 34 questionnaires answered by clinical staff resulted in four themes defining treatment outcomes: symptom reduction, general well-being, social functioning and personalization. Systematic review revealed 242 different transdiagnostic outcome measures, with the 36-item Short-Form Survey for quality of life (SF36) being used most consistently, showing substantial overlap with the themes from the qualitative study. Comparing SF36 to HDRS scores in 26 studies revealed moderate to good correlations (0.62-0.79) and good positive predictive values (0.75-0.88). The NLP pipeline developed with notes from 22,170 patients reached an accuracy of 95 to 99 percent (F1 scores: 0.38 - 0.86) on detecting these themes, evaluated on data from 361 patients. CONCLUSIONS: The NLP pipeline developed in this study extracts outcome measures from the EHR that cater specifically to the needs of clinical staff and align with outcome measures used to detect treatment effects in clinical trials.

Bayesian network analysis of antidepressant treatment trajectories.

It is currently difficult to successfully choose the correct type of antidepressant for individual patients. To discover patterns in patient characteristics, treatment choices and outcomes, we performed retrospective Bayesian network analysis combined with natural language processing (NLP). This study was conducted at two mental healthcare facilities in the Netherlands. Adult patients admitted and treated with antidepressants between 2014 and 2020 were included. Outcome measures were antidepressant continuation, prescription duration and four treatment outcome topics: core complaints, social functioning, general well-being and patient experience, extracted through NLP of clinical notes. Combined with patient and treatment characteristics, Bayesian networks were constructed at both facilities and compared. Antidepressant choices were continued in 66% and 89% of antidepressant trajectories. Score-based network analysis revealed 28 dependencies between treatment choices, patient characteristics and outcomes. Treatment outcomes and prescription duration were tightly intertwined and interacted with antipsychotics and benzodiazepine co-medication. Tricyclic antidepressant prescription and depressive disorder were important predictors for antidepressant continuation. We show a feasible way of pattern discovery in psychiatry data, through combining network analysis with NLP. Further research should explore the found patterns in patient characteristics, treatment choices and outcomes prospectively, and the possibility of translating these into a tool for clinical decision support.

Outcome prediction of electroconvulsive therapy for depression.

INTRODUCTION: We developed and tested a Bayesian network(BN) model to predict ECT remission for depression, with non-response as a secondary outcome. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search on clinically available predictors. We combined these predictors with variables from a dataset of clinical ECT trajectories (performed in the University Medical Center Utrecht) to create priors and train the BN. Temporal validation was performed in an independent sample. RESULTS: The systematic literature search yielded three meta-analyses, which provided prior knowledge on outcome predictors. The clinical dataset consisted of 248 treatment trajectories in the training set and 44 trajectories in the test set at the same medical center. The AUC for the primary outcome remission estimated on an independent validation set was 0.686 (95%CI 0.513-0.859) (AUC values of 0.505 - 0.763 observed in 5-fold cross validation of the model within the train set). Accuracy 0.73 (balanced accuracy 0.67), sensitivity 0.55, specificity 0.79, after temporal validation in the independent sample. Prior literature information marginally reduced CI width. DISCUSSION: A BN model comprised of prior knowledge and clinical data can predict remission of depression after ECT with reasonable performance. This approach can be used to make outcome predictions in psychiatry, and offers a methodological framework to weigh additional information, such as patient characteristics, symptoms and biomarkers. In time, it may be used to improve shared decision-making in clinical practice.

The Predictive Validity of Machine Learning Models in the Classification and Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder: State of the Art and Future Directions.

Major depressive disorder imposes a substantial disease burden worldwide, ranking as the third leading contributor to global disability. In spite of its ubiquity, classifying and treating depression has proven troublesome. One argument put forward to explain this predicament is the heterogeneity of patients diagnosed with the disorder. Recently, many areas of daily life have witnessed the surge of machine learning techniques, computational approaches to elucidate complex patterns in large datasets, which can be employed to make predictions and detect relevant clusters. Due to the multidimensionality at play in the pathogenesis of depression, it is suggested that machine learning could contribute to improving classification and treatment. In this paper, we investigated literature focusing on the use of machine learning models on datasets with clinical variables of patients diagnosed with depression to predict treatment outcomes or find more homogeneous subgroups. Identified studies based on best practices in the field are evaluated. We found 16 studies predicting outcomes (such as remission) and identifying clusters in patients with depression. The identified studies are mostly still in proof-of-concept phase, with small datasets, lack of external validation, and providing single performance metrics. Larger datasets, and models with similar variables present across these datasets, are needed to develop accurate and generalizable models. We hypothesize that harnessing natural language processing to obtain data 'hidden' in clinical texts might prove useful in improving prediction models. Besides, researchers will need to focus on the conditions to feasibly implement these models to support psychiatrists and patients in their decision-making in practice. Only then we can enter the realm of precision psychiatry.

Does Residential Green and Blue Space Promote Recovery in Psychotic Disorders? A Cross-Sectional Study in the Province of Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Mental health is reportedly influenced by the presence of green and blue space in residential areas, but scientific evidence of a relation to psychotic disorders is scant. We put two hypotheses to the test: first, compared to the general population, psychiatric patients live in neighborhoods with less green and blue space; second, the amount of green and blue space is negatively associated with the duration of hospital admission. The study population consisted of 623 patients with psychotic disorders who had been admitted to the psychiatric ward of an academic hospital in Utrecht, The Netherlands from 2008 to 2016. Recovery was measured by length of stay. Structured patient data was linked to socio-economic status and the amount of green and blue space in the residential area. Associations were assessed by means of regression models controlling for confounding factors. Compared to the general population, psychiatric patients had a significantly lower amount of green space in their neighborhood. This result was not confirmed for blue space. Furthermore, no significant associations were found between green and blue space and the duration of hospital stay. In conclusion, previous studies focusing on other mental disorders, like anxiety or depression, found positive mental health effects of green and blue space in the neighborhood. We were not able to confirm significant effects among our study population on duration of admission, however. Future research focusing on psychotic patients could investigate the influence of exposure to green and blue space on other influences and outcomes on mental health.

Transitioning to a Data Driven Mental Health Practice: Collaborative Expert Sessions for Knowledge and Hypothesis Finding.

The surge in the amount of available data in health care enables a novel, exploratory research approach that revolves around finding new knowledge and unexpected hypotheses from data instead of carrying out well-defined data analysis tasks. We propose a specification of the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM), suitable for conducting expert sessions that focus on finding new knowledge and hypotheses in collaboration with local workforce. Our proposed specification that we name CRISP-IDM is evaluated in a case study at the psychiatry department of the University Medical Center Utrecht. Expert interviews were conducted to identify seven research themes in the psychiatry department, which were researched in cooperation with local health care professionals using data visualization as a modeling tool. During 19 expert sessions, two results that were directly implemented and 29 hypotheses for further research were found, of which 24 were not imagined during the initial expert interviews. Our work demonstrates the viability and benefits of involving work floor people in the analyses and the possibility to effectively find new knowledge and hypotheses using our CRISP-IDM method.