Quantitative analyses of misclassification rates in the hazard classification of environmental chemicals: Evaluation of procedures for deriving predicted no-effect concentrations in the Chemical Substance Control Law in Japan.

The quality of chemical management depends more or less on practical procedures used to assess chemicals. This study quantitatively assessed the efficacy of a derivation procedure for calculating no-effect concentrations for screening assessment of environmental hazards under the Chemical Substance Control Law in Japan. We first evaluated the derivation procedure by applying a series of test ecotoxicity datasets to the procedure and calculating the resulting misclassification rates of the hazardous class of chemicals. In this study, a chemical was deemed to have been misclassified if its classification differed from its classification based on the full dataset (chronic toxicity data for three trophic levels), which was defined as the correct assignment. We also calculated the effects of additional uncertainty factors to decrease the variance (i.e., to improve the consistency) of the misclassification rates among cases with different data availability in the derivation procedure. The results showed that the derivation procedure resulted in very high rates of misclassification when only particular sets of ecotoxicity data were available (e.g., only chronic toxicity data of algae were available). Our analyses also showed that the use of additional uncertainty factors improved the consistency of the misclassification rates within the derivation procedure. Our study presents a broadly applicable calculation framework for quantifying error rates in assessment procedures and serves as a case study for future development and reforms of chemical assessment processes and policies, while additional analyses using more extensive ecotoxicity data with various modes of actions are needed in the future.

Revisiting assessment factors for species sensitivity distributions as a function of sample size and variation in species sensitivity.

To use species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for ecological risk assessment, there are various uncertainties, which require applying assessment factors (AFs) accordingly. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of estimating statistical distributions. Given a management goal of protecting 95% of species, the concentration that affects 5% of the species (HC5) is estimated. Since the true concentration affecting 5% of the species (population HC5) is unknown, the estimated HC5 is divided by an AF to derive the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC), which is set as the protection goal, to compensate for the deviation in the estimated HC5 from the population HC5. Although the deviation between these two HC5 values depends on the sample size and the variation in sensitivity (standard deviation of the distribution) among species, there has been little discussion of how to quantify the degree of uncertainty. By assuming that toxicity values are a random sample from a lognormal distribution, we mathematically analyzed the SSD to derive the magnitude of AF needed to achieve a given protection goal (as an example, the protection of 95% of species with a probability of 95%). We successfully derived an equation that explicitly relates the magnitude of AF to the sample size and the variation in species sensitivity, providing a new basis to statistically determine the magnitude of AF for ecological risk assessments.

What do we want to estimate from observational datasets? Choosing appropriate statistical analysis methods based on the chemical management phase.

The goals of observational dataset analysis vary with the management phase of environments threatened by anthropogenic chemicals. For example, identifying severely compromised sites is necessary to determine candidate sites in which to implement measures during early management phases. Among the most effective approaches is developing regression models with high predictive power for dependent variable values using the Akaike information criterion. However, this analytical approach may be theoretically inappropriate to obtain the necessary information in various chemical management phases, such as the intervention effect size of a chemical required in the late chemical management phase to evaluate the necessity of an effluent standard and its specific value. However, choosing appropriate statistical methods based on the data analysis objective in each chemical management phase has rarely been performed. This study provides an overview of the primary data analysis objectives in the early and late chemical management phases. For each objective, several suitable statistical analysis methods for observational datasets are detailed. In addition, the study presents examples of linear regression analysis procedures using an available dataset derived from field surveys conducted in Japanese rivers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1414-1422. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Illustrating a Species Sensitivity Distribution for Nano- and Microplastic Particles Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling.

Environmental contamination with nano- and microplastic (NMP) particles is an emerging global concern. The derivation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) is an essential step in estimating a hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5), and this HC5 value is often used as a "safe" concentration in ecological risk assessment, that is, predicted-no-effect concentration. Although properties of plastics such as particle size can affect toxic effect concentrations, such influences have not yet been quantitatively considered in estimating SSDs for NMP particles. We illustrate a log-normal SSD using chronic lowest-observed-effect concentrations (LOECs) of NMP particles from readily available toxicity data sets, considering the influence of particle size, polymer type, and freshwater or marine test media by adopting Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques. Results of the hierarchical SSD modeling suggest that the SSD mean was negatively associated with particle size and was lower in marine media than in freshwater media. The posterior medians of the HC5 estimated from the LOEC-based SSD varied by a factor of 10 depending on these factors (e.g., 1.8-20 µg/L for the particle size range of 0.1-5000 µm in the marine environment). Hierarchical SSD modeling allows us to clarify the influences of important factors such as NMP properties on effect concentrations, thereby helping to guide more relevant ecological risk assessments for NMP. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:954-960. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Inferring causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns on lake water clarity using long-term monitoring data.

Although long-term ecosystem monitoring provides essential knowledge for practicing ecosystem management, analyses of the causal effects of ecological impacts from large-scale observational data are still in an early stage of development. We used causal impact analysis (CIA)-a synthetic control method that enables estimation of causal impacts from unrepeated, long-term observational data-to evaluate the causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns during summer on subsequent water quality. We used more than 100 years of transparency and water level monitoring data from Lake Biwa, Japan. The results of the CIA showed that the most extreme drawdown in recorded history, which occurred in 1994, had a significant positive effect on transparency (a maximum increase of 1.75 m on average over the following year) in the north basin of the lake. The extreme drawdown in 1939 was also shown to be a trigger for an increase in transparency in the north basin, whereas that in 1984 had no significant effects on transparency. In the south basin, contrary to the pattern in the north basin, the extreme drawdown had a significant negative effect on transparency shortly after the extreme drawdown. These different impacts of the extreme drawdowns were considered to be affected by the timing and magnitude of the extreme drawdowns and the depths of the basins. Our approach of inferring the causal impacts of past events on ecosystems will be helpful in implementing water-level management for ecosystem management and improving water quality in lakes.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

Population model analyses of the combined effects of insecticide use and habitat degradation on the past sharp declines of the dragonfly Sympetrum frequens.

In recent decades, many dragonfly species have become threatened with extinction. For example, populations of Sympetrum frequens, one of the most common dragonflies in rice paddy fields in Japan, decreased sharply around the late 1990s in many regions. Although previous studies suggested that the use of systemic insecticides (particularly fipronil) was likely a major cause of the decline, agronomic factors other than insecticide use and the combined effects of both have been not examined. Here, we developed an S. frequens population model using survival rate parameters associated with the farmland consolidation rate, midsummer drainage, area of crop rotation and abandoned rice paddies, insecticide use, and summer temperature and analyzed the effects of each factor on population dynamics by numerical simulations. Our population models substantially reproduced the past sharp population declines of the dragonfly in three regions. Numerical simulations using hypothetical parameters did not always suggest that the use of systemic insecticides is a sufficient cause of the sharp population declines, as the declines did not occur if the farmland consolidation rate remained at lower levels (before the 1980s). On the other hand, our findings suggest that the use of insecticides with high toxicity is a necessary cause of the sharp population declines, as the declines did not occur when simulated toxicity levels were lower than those actually used. Overall, our numerical simulations suggest that the sharp population declines of S. frequens around the late 1990s were caused by the combined effects of insecticide use and farmland consolidation, in which rice paddies are converted to well-drained paddy fields. Conservation planning for dragonflies needs to account for the combined effects of habitat degradation and use of insecticides.

Suicide by gender and 10-year age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic vs previous five years in Japan: An analysis of national vital statistics.

Using daily vital statistics data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, we provide the first weekly and age-group-specific estimates of the additional suicide burden during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan by gender, from January through November 2020. Our results indicate that compared with the previous five years, suicide cases in 2020 in Japan have increased from late July to November for women in all age groups and for men in the 20-29 and 80+ years age group. Targeted interventions based on age and gender might be more effective in reducing suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

Comparison of population-level effects of heavy metals on fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas).

To evaluate the population-level effects of heavy metals (copper, zinc, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, nickel) on fathead minnow, Pimephales promelas, we first estimated the concentration-effect relationships between the metal concentrations and individual traits (juvenile survivability, hatchability, fertility) by using toxicity data collected from the literature. A Leslie matrix model of fathead minnow was used to calculate population growth rates from these relationships. The population threshold concentrations (PTCs) leading to zero net growth of the fish population were as follows: Cu, 27.4; Cd, 33.2; Zn (soft water), 81.5; Zn (hard water), 85.8; Ni, 504.8; Cr, 3251.6 (microg L(-1)). By comparing the PTCs with no observed effect concentrations (NOECs), we found that some PTCs were equivalent to or even lower than the corresponding NOECs. This result suggests that current ecological risk assessments based on the NOECs can be inadequate for protecting aquatic populations and more efforts on the population-level studies are needed.

The effect of intervention in nickel concentrations on benthic macroinvertebrates: A case study of statistical causal inference in ecotoxicology.

Field survey-based ecological risk assessments for trace metals are conducted to examine the necessity and/or effectiveness of management intervention, such as setting of environmental quality standards. Observational datasets often involve confounders that may bias estimation of the effects of intervention (e.g., reduction of trace-metal concentrations through regulation). The field of ecotoxicology lags behind some other research fields in understanding proper analytical procedures for causal inference from observational datasets; there are only a few field survey-based ecotoxicological studies that have explicitly controlled for confounders in their statistical analyses. In the present study, we estimated the effect of intervention in nickel concentrations on Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness in rivers in Japan. We also provide detailed explanations for the backgrounds of spurious associations derived from confounders and on proper analytical procedures for obtaining an unbiased estimate of the targeted intervention effect by using regression analysis. We constructed a multiple regression model based on a causal diagram for aquatic insects and environmental factors, and on "the backdoor criterion," that enabled us to determine the set of covariates required to obtain an unbiased estimate of the targeted intervention effect from regression coefficients. We found that management intervention in nickel concentrations may be ineffective compared to intervention in organic pollution, and that analysis ignoring the confounders overestimated the effect of intervention in nickel concentrations. Our results highlight the fact that confounders can lead to misjudging the necessity for management of anthropogenic chemical substances. Confounders should be explicitly specified and statistically controlled to achieve a comprehensive assessment of ecological risks for various substances.

Evaluation of interregional consistency in associations between neonicotinoid insecticides and functions of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas.

Neonicotinoid insecticides pose risks that need to be managed for conservation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the associations between the estimated environmental concentrations of two neonicotinoid insecticides (imidacloprid and dinotefuran) and the total abundances of seven functional feeding groups (FFGs) of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas in four Japanese regions. Regional datasets of benthic invertebrate communities and environmental variables available for Japan were analyzed. The associations between neonicotinoid exposure and benthic functional groups in each region were evaluated by applying a partial redundancy analysis to each regional dataset. We then examined whether there was an interregionally consistent pattern in the observed associations to ascertain the general applicability of the associations. In two of the four regions, the associations of the total abundances of the seven FFGs with neonicotinoid concentrations were significant, suggesting negative effects of imidacloprid and dinotefuran on river ecosystem functions in these two Japanese regions. Moreover, although the associations in the remaining two regions were not significant, the pattern of associations of the total abundances of six of the FFGs (shredders, filter feeders, collectors, grazers, predators, and scavengers) with imidacloprid concentrations seemed to be consistent among the four regions. This implies broad-scale negative effects of imidacloprid on river ecosystem functions in urban rice-paddy areas. We did not, however, find any interregionally consistent patterns in the associations with dinotefuran concentrations. This may be related to the multicollinearity with the imidacloprid concentrations and/or the low maximum dinotefuran concentration relative to the toxicity values of this neonicotinoid. Therefore, the association between dinotefuran and river ecosystem functions requires additional investigation. We believe that this type of hypotheses-generating research using country-wide biomonitoring and exposure databases can be a great aid in future ecological risk assessment studies.

Effects of systemic insecticides on the population dynamics of the dragonfly Sympetrum frequens in Japan: Statistical analyses using field census data from 2009 to 2016.

Since the mid-1990s, populations of the common Japanese dragonfly Sympetrum frequens in rice fields have declined severely. Application of systemic insecticides-especially fipronil-to nursery boxes of rice seedlings is suspected to be the main cause of the decline. However, until now there have been insufficient population data to test the causality. We conducted a dragonfly survey from 2009 to 2016 in four prefectures of Japan and compiled the data to enable the comparison of population growth rates along five main census routes over the years. We also estimated the use ratio of each insecticide applied to nursery boxes in rice fields (i.e., the area exposed to insecticide as a ratio of the total rice field area) by prefecture. We then statistically analyzed the effects of the insecticides on the dragonfly's population growth rates, taking into account the potential confounding factors based on current knowledge. There was a significant negative association between the annual increase in use ratio of the sum of systemic insecticides (e.g., fipronil, imidacloprid, and chlorantraniliprole) and the annual population growth rate of S. frequens. This association suggests that systemic insecticide use affected the decrease in population density of the dragonfly, although some agronomic factors need to be further examined as potential confounders.

Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

Climate warming is of concern as a key factor in the worldwide decline in insect populations. In Japan, numbers of a common dragonfly in rice paddy fields, Sympetrum frequens, decreased sharply in the 1990s. Because S. frequens migrates to cooler mountains in summer, climate warming has been suggested as one of the main causes of the population decline in addition to agronomic factors. Here, we analysed the relation between summer temperatures and population densities of S. frequens and the related S. infuscatum, which does not migrate to mountains in summer, using published population monitoring data and temperature data from three regions (Toyama, Ishikawa, and Shizuoka) in Japan. Decadal differences in summer temperatures lay within the range of fluctuations among years, suggesting that an increase in summer temperatures cannot explain the past sharp population declines. However, regression analyses using monitoring data from Toyama showed that the population dynamics of both species in autumn are negatively correlated with summer temperatures in the same year. These results suggest that high temperatures in summer directly affect adult mortality to an extent that results in a decrease in population growth.

Author Correction: Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Reviews on common objectives and evaluation indicators for risk communication activities from 2011 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Risk communication is widely accepted as a significant factor for policy makers, academic researchers, and practitioners in diverse fields. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive knowledge about how risk communication is currently conducted across fields and about the way risk communication is evaluated. METHODOLOGY: This study systematically searched for materials from three scholarly search engines and one journal with a single search term of "risk communication." The eligibility assessment selected peer-reviewed articles published in English that evaluated risk communication activities. Emphasis was placed on articles published in recent years accounting for about half of the pre-selected ones. Data on field of study, intervention timing, target audience, communication type, and objectives/evaluation indicators was extracted from the articles. Patterns of objectives/evaluation indicators used in risk communication activities were compared with those of the definitions and purposes of risk communication stated by relevant organizations. Association analysis was conducted based on study fields and objectives/evaluation indicators. RESULTS: The screening process yielded 292 articles that were published between 2011 and 2017 in various fields, such as medicine, food safety, chemical substances, and disasters/emergencies. The review process showed that many activities were performed in the medical field, during non-/pre-crisis periods. Recent activities primarily targeted citizens/Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), and was disseminated in the form of large group or mass communication. While "knowledge increase," "change in risk perception and concern alleviation," and "decision making and behavior change" were commonly addressed in practice, "trust-building" and "reduction in psychological distress" were rarely focused. The analysis also indicated that the medical field tends to perform risk communication at the individual or small group level, in contrast to the food safety field. Further, risk communications in the non-/pre-crisis period are more likely to aim at "changes in risk perception and concern alleviation" than those in the crisis period. Risk communications that aim at "changes in risk perception and concern alleviation" are likely to be presented in a large group or mass communication, whereas those that aim at "decision making and behavior change" are likely to be conducted at the individual or small group level. CONCLUSION: An overview of recent activities may provide those who engage in risk communication with an opportunity to learn from practices in different fields or those conducted in different intervention timings. Devoting greater attention to trust building and reduction in psychological distress and exploring non-citizen/NPO stakeholders' needs would be beneficial across academic and professional disciplines.

Associations of Community Structure and Functions of Benthic Invertebrates with Nickel Concentrations: Analyses from Field Surveys.

Field surveys provide valuable empirical information about the effects of heavy metals on the biological integrity of river ecosystems. To evaluate the effect of nickel (Ni) on aquatic organisms, we conducted field surveys of benthic invertebrates and Ni concentrations at 45 sites in 19 rivers in Japan. We examined the relationships between 11 structural or functional measures of benthic invertebrate communities and free Ni ion concentrations with a 90th quantile regression model. Among the measures, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness, total wet biomass of all invertebrates, and total abundance of filter feeders were negatively associated with free Ni ion concentrations. The total abundance of mud burrowers and their percentage contribution to the abundance of all invertebrates as well as the total abundances of collector-gatherers and predators were positively associated with the Ni ion concentrations. The free ion concentrations of Ni associated with a 5% reduction of one of the 3 measures from its 90th quantile value at reference sites (EC5) were estimated to be 0.2 to 7.6 µg/L. The point estimates of EC5 were similar in order of magnitude to the environmental quality standard for Ni in the European Union. However, the usefulness of simple point estimates of effective concentrations based on quantile regression lines should be carefully examined because the uncertainties in our EC5 values were large. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1728-1737. © 2019 SETAC.

Georeferenced multimedia environmental fate of volatile methylsiloxanes modeled in the populous Tokyo Bay catchment basin.

We investigated the multimedia fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in the densely populated catchment basin of Tokyo Bay, Japan, by using a georeferenced multimedia model. We estimated the daily per person consumption rate of these compounds in Japan according to literature. Emissions to the atmosphere accounted for almost all of the emissions of these compounds to the environment. The majority of these compounds was predicted to be distributed in the atmosphere (about 60%) and sediment (about 40%). The advective flows in and out of the atmosphere over the Tokyo Bay catchment basin dominated the flows of these compounds. The sewerage systems contributed considerably to the transport and fate of D5 and D6 in water. They transported these compounds from households to discharge outlets of sewage treatment plants (STPs), which in turn accounted for approximately one quarter of the emission of these compounds to rivers and to Tokyo Bay. The wastewater treatment plants also effectively removed these compounds from the wastewater. The overall persistence of D5 and D6 in the catchment basin was estimated to be 3.8-9.5 days. The horizontal distributions of these compounds were similar among environmental compartments; high concentrations were generally observed in populated areas. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the D5 discharge rate to Tokyo Bay excluding the direct discharge from STPs and the D5 mass in the river compartment were sensitive to changes of the organic-carbon-water partition coefficient. Comparison with the concentrations in rivers measured recently in the target area showed that the model captured overall trends of low to high concentrations in rivers. However, there was some variability and a bias toward underprediction. The model provided a better fit to measurements for D5 than for D6. One potential factor contributing to the bias toward underprediction was underestimation of the consumption rates.

Model construction for estimating potential vulnerability of Japanese soils to cadmium pollution based on intact soil properties.

Prediction of heavy metal bioavailability in intact soil is important to manage soil pollution risks. We developed a regression model for representative Japanese soils to judge their potential vulnerability to cadmium (Cd) pollution. We added four rates of Cd to 17 sample soils to mimic artificial contamination. After aging the contaminated soils, we measured Cd's bioavailability using the diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT) technique. We then evaluated the relationships between bioavailability of Cd ([CdDGT]) and intact soil properties by statistical analyses. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH emerged as significant factors to explain the cadmium bioavailability in Japanese soils. Specifically, lower CEC and lower pH were associated with higher [CdDGT], which poses a higher risk for soil ecosystems. The correlation between pH and [CdDGT] had a high dependence on [CdAdd], whereas that for CEC did not. Regression analysis also showed that the interaction between intact soil pH and spiked concentration ([CdAdd]) had a significant contribution to [CdDGT]. The regression model developed was rationally supported by a biotic ligand model. This simplified but realistic model would be useful in estimating the vulnerability of representative Japanese soils and determining the risk for Japanese soils in relation to Cd contamination.

Were the sharp declines of dragonfly populations in the 1990s in Japan caused by fipronil and imidacloprid? An analysis of Hill's causality for the case of Sympetrum frequens.

Neonicotinoids and fipronil are the most widely used insecticides in the world. Previous studies showed that these compounds have high toxicity to a wide taxonomic range of non-target invertebrates. In rice cultivation, they are frequently used for nursery-box treatment of rice seedlings. The use of fipronil and neonicotinoid imidacloprid is suspected to be the main cause of population declines of red dragonflies, in particular Sympetrum frequens, because they have high lethal toxicity to dragonfly nymphs and the timing of the insecticides' introduction in Japan (i.e., the late 1990s) overlapped with the sharp population declines. However, a causal link between application of these insecticides and population declines of the dragonflies remains unclear. Therefore, we estimated the amount of the insecticides applied for nursery-box treatment of rice seedlings and analyzed currently available information to evaluate the causality between fipronil and imidacloprid usage and population decline of S. frequens using Hill's causality criteria. Based on our scoring of Hill's nine criteria, the strongest lines of evidence were strength, plausibility, and coherence, whereas the weakest were temporality and biological gradient. We conclude that the use of these insecticides, particularly fipronil, was a major cause of the declines of S. frequens in Japan in the 1990s, with a high degree of certainty. The existing information and our analyses, however, do not allow us to exclude the possibility that some agronomic practices (e.g., midsummer drainage or crop rotation) that can severely limit the survival of aquatic nymphs also played a role in the dragonfly's decline.