A simulated maximum likelihood procedure for analyzing imprecise trade-off thresholds between the benefits and harms of medicines.

Stated preference studies in which information on the willingness to trade-off between the benefits and harms of medicines is elicited from patients or other stakeholders are becoming increasingly mainstream. Such trade-offs can mathematically be represented by a weighted additive function, with the weights, whose ratios determine how much an individual is willing to trade-off between the treatment attributes, being the response vector for the statistical analysis. One way of eliciting trade-off information is through multi-dimensional thresholding (MDT), which is a bisection-based approach that results in increasingly tight bounds on the values of the weights ratios. While MDT is cognitively less demanding than other, more direct elicitation methods, its use complicates the statistical analysis as it results in weights data that are region censored. In this article, we present a simulated maximum likelihood (SML) procedure for fitting a Dirichlet population model directly to the region-censored weights data and perform a series of computational experiments to compare the proposed SML procedure to a naive approach in which a Dirichlet distribution is fitted to the centroids of the weights boundaries obtained with MDT. The results indicate that the SML procedure consistently outperformed the centroid-based approach, with the centroid-based approach requiring three bisection steps per trade-off to achieve a similar precision as the SML procedure with one bisection step per trade-off. Using the newly proposed SML procedure, MDT can be applied with smaller sample sizes or with fewer questions compared to the more naïve centroid-based approach that was applied in previous applications of MDT.

A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. METHODS: Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. CONCLUSIONS: Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.

The Additive Prognostic Value of Serial Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels over Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations are frequently observed in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the predictive value of serial IL-6 measurements beyond brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) remains poorly characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective analysis of the PROTECT cohort (2033 patients with AHF). Plasma IL-6 and BNP levels were determined on days 1, 2, 7 and 14 after admission for AHF in 1591 (78.3%), 1462 (71.9%), 1445 (71.1%) and 1451 (71.4%) patients, respectively. The primary endpoint was 180-day all-cause mortality. The median day-1 IL-6 concentration was 11.1 pg/mL (IQR: 6.6, 20.9) and decreased to 10.1 pg/mL (IQR: 5.6-18.5) at day-7. Higher cross-sectional IL-6 concentrations at all time-points predicted the primary endpoint, independent of a risk model for this cohort and changes in BNP. Each doubling of IL-6 between day-1 and day-7 predicted the primary endpoint independent of baseline IL-6 concentrations, the risk model, baseline BNP and changes in BNP [HR (95% CI): 1.18 (1.07-1.30), p=0.0013]. Collectively, 214 (17%) patients experienced at least a doubling of their IL-6 concentrations between day-1 and day-7. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the temporal evolution patterns of IL-6 in patients with AHF have additive prognostic value independent of changes in BNP.

Antiarrhythmic drugs in patients with early persistent atrial fibrillation and heart failure: results of the RACE 3 study.

AIMS: Maintaining sinus rhythm in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging. We explored the efficacy of class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) in patients with persistent AF and mild to moderate heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the RACE 3 trial, patients with early persistent symptomatic AF and short history of mild to moderate HF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were randomized to targeted or conventional therapy. Both groups received AF and HF guideline-driven treatment. Additionally, the targeted-group received mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers, and cardiac rehabilitation. Class I and III AADs could be instituted in case of symptomatic recurrent AF. Eventually, pulmonary vein isolation could be performed. Primary endpoint was sinus rhythm on 7-day Holter after 1-year. Included were 245 patients, age 65 ± 9 years, 193 (79%) men, AF history was 3 (2-6) months, HF history 2 (1-4) months, 72 (29.4%) had HF with reduced LVEF. After baseline electrical cardioversion (ECV), 190 (77.6%) had AF recurrences; 108 (56.8%) received class I/III AADs; 19 (17.6%) flecainide, 36 (33.3%) sotalol, 3 (2.8%) dronedarone, 50 (46.3%) amiodarone. At 1-year 73 of 108 (68.0%) patients were in sinus rhythm, 44 (40.7%) without new AF recurrences. Maintenance of sinus rhythm was significantly better with amiodarone [n = 29/50 (58%)] compared with flecainide [n = 6/19 (32%)] and sotalol/dronedarone [n = 9/39 (23%)], P = 0.0064. Adverse events occurred in 27 (25.0%) patients, were all minor and reversible. CONCLUSION: In stable HF patients with early persistent AF, AAD treatment was effective in nearly half of patients, with no serious adverse effects reported.

Serial Measurements of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Serum Level for Monitoring Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Children.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between serially measured N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) serum levels and disease severity in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to assess its predictive value for death or (heart-)lung transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: This was a longitudinal cohort study of the Dutch National Network for Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension conducted between 2003 and 2017. Data on NT-proBNP and disease severity markers (World Health Organization Functional Class [WHO-FC], 6-minute walking distance [6MWD], and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion [TAPSE]) were collected every 3 to 6 months from 82 children with PAH. The outcome measure was death or (heart-)lung transplantation. Also, NT-proBNP levels over time were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. RESULTS: The median patient age was 8.8 years (IQR, 4.6-13.5 years), and 61% were female. The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years (IQR, 1.9-10.0 years). At all times during the course of disease, higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher WHO-FC (ß = 0.526; 95% CI, 0.451-0.600), lower 6MWD z-score (ß = -0.587; 95% CI, -0.828 to -0.346), lower TAPSE z-score (ß = -0.783; 95% CI, -1.016 to -0.549), and elevated risk of death or (heart-)lung transplantation (hazard ratio 16.61; 95% CI, 7.81-35.33). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors had NT-proBNP levels that were higher at first measurement and increased exponentially over time (P = .005). Changes in NT-proBNP serum level over time were predictive of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Throughout the disease course of pediatric PAH, serial measurements of NT-proBNP are associated with disease severity and transplant-free survival. Monitoring NT-proBNP levels over time provides important prognostic information that can support clinical decision making in combination with other established prognostic markers.

The Genetic Epidemiology of Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH)-associated gene mutations, and other genetic characteristics in a national cohort of children with PAH from the Dutch National registry and to explore genotype-phenotype associations and outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Children (n = 70) diagnosed with idiopathic PAH, heritable PAH, PAH associated with congenital heart disease with coincidental shunt (PAH-congenital heart disease group 3), PAH after closure of a cardiac shunt (PAH-congenital heart disease group 4), or PAH associated with other noncardiac conditions were enrolled. Targeted next-generation sequencing was performed on PAH-associated genes (BMPR2, ACVRL1, EIF2AK4, CAV1, ENG, KCNK3, SMAD9, and TBX4). Also, children were tested for specific genetic disorders in case of clinical suspicion. Additionally, children were tested for copy number variations. RESULTS: Nineteen children (27%) had a PAH-associated gene mutation/variant: BMPR2 n = 7, TBX4 n = 8, ACVRL1 n = 1, KCNK3 n = 1, and EIF2AK4 n = 2. Twelve children (17%) had a genetic disorder with an established association with PAH (including trisomy 21 and cobalamin C deficiency). In another 16 children (23%), genetic disorders without an established association with PAH were identified (including Noonan syndrome, Beals syndrome, and various copy number variations). Survival rates differed between groups and was most favorable in TBX4 variant carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Children with PAH show a high prevalence of genetic disorders, not restricted to established PAH-associated genes. Genetic architecture could play a role in risk-stratified care management in pediatric PAH.

Pragmatic rules for comparability of biological medicinal products.

Comparability is a key concept in the evaluation of both manufacturing changes and biosimilars. It constitutes a pragmatic and flexible approach which recognises that biologicals are inherently variable and that minor variations in quality attributes are often clinically irrelevant. In this discussion paper, we argue that comparability exercises rely on a number of pragmatic criteria. These criteria have been remarkably robust for 20 years of comparability exercises; however, the increased scrutiny of biosimilar applications provides an impetus for both codification and improvement of criteria for establishing comparability. Such a more rigorous, methodologically sound, approach towards comparability seems both feasible and beneficial.

Targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves quality of life in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation: results of the RACE 3 study.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces quality of life (QoL). We aim to evaluate effects of targeted therapy of underlying conditions on QoL in patients with AF and heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: The Routine versus Aggressive risk factor driven upstream rhythm Control for prevention of Early atrial fibrillation in heart failure (RACE 3) study randomized patients with early persistent AF and HF to targeted or conventional therapy. Both groups received guideline-driven treatment. The targeted group received four additional therapies: mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists; statins; angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers; and cardiac rehabilitation including physical activity, dietary restrictions, and counselling. Quality of life was analysed in 230 patients at baseline and 1 year with available Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36), University of Toronto AF Severity Scale (AFSS) questionnaires, and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) class. Improvements in SF-36 subscales were larger in the targeted group for physical functioning (Δ12 ± 19 vs. Δ6 ± 22, P = 0.007), physical role limitations (Δ32 ± 41 vs. Δ17 ± 45, P = 0.018), and general health (Δ8 ± 16 vs. Δ0 ± 17, P < 0.001). Dyspnoea at rest improved more (Δ-0.8 ± 1.3 vs. Δ-0.4 ± 1.2, P = 0.018) and EHRA class was lower at 1-year follow-up in the targeted group. Patients with AF at 1 year, improvement in physical functioning (Δ9 ± 9 vs. Δ-3 ± 16, P = 0.001), general health (Δ7 ± 16 vs. Δ-7 ± 19, P = 0.004), and social functioning (Δ6 ± 23 vs. Δ-4 ± 16, P = 0.041) were larger in the targeted group. CONCLUSION: A strategy aiming to treat underlying conditions improved QoL more compared with conventional therapy in patients with early persistent AF and HF. Its benefit was even observed in patients in AF at 1 year. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00877643.

Targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation: results of the RACE 3 trial.

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease. Targeted therapy of underlying conditions refers to interventions aiming to modify risk factors in order to prevent AF. We hypothesised that targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent AF. Methods and results: We randomized patients with early persistent AF and mild-to-moderate heart failure (HF) to targeted therapy of underlying conditions or conventional therapy. Both groups received causal treatment of AF and HF, and rhythm control therapy. In the intervention group, on top of that, four therapies were started: (i) mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), (ii) statins, (iii) angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers, and (iv) cardiac rehabilitation including physical activity, dietary restrictions, and counselling. The primary endpoint was sinus rhythm at 1 year during 7 days of Holter monitoring. Of 245 patients, 119 were randomized to targeted and 126 to conventional therapy. The intervention led to a contrast in MRA (101 [85%] vs. 5 [4%] patients, P < 0.001) and statin use (111 [93%] vs. 61 [48%], P < 0.001). Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers were not different. Cardiac rehabilitation was completed in 109 (92%) patients. Underlying conditions were more successfully treated in the intervention group. At 1 year, sinus rhythm was present in 89 (75%) patients in the intervention vs. 79 (63%) in the conventional group (odds ratio 1.765, lower limit of 95% confidence interval 1.021, P = 0.042). Conclusions: RACE 3 confirms that targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent AF. Trial Registration number: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00877643.

Comparing biomarker profiles of patients with heart failure: atrial fibrillation vs. sinus rhythm and reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction.

Aims: The clinical correlates and consequences of atrial fibrillation (AF) might be different between heart failure with reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF vs. HFpEF). Biomarkers may provide insights into underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of AF in these different heart failure (HF) phenotypes. Methods and results: We performed a retrospective analysis of the BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure (BIOSTAT-CHF), which was an observational cohort. We studied 2152 patients with HFrEF [ejection fraction (EF < 40%)], of which 1419 were in sinus rhythm (SR) and 733 had AF. Another 524 patients with HFpEF (EF ≥50%) were studied, of which 286 in SR and 238 with AF. For the comparison of biomarker profiles, 92 cardiovascular risk markers were measured (Proseek® Olink Cardiovascular III panel). The circulating risk marker pattern observed in HFrEF was different than the pattern in HFpEF: in HFrEF, AF was associated with higher levels of 77 of 92 (84%) risk markers compared to SR; whereas in HFpEF, many more markers were higher in SR than in AF. Over a median follow-up of 21 months, AF was associated with increased mortality risk [multivariable hazard ratio (HR) of 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.48, P = 0.002]; there was no significant interaction between heart rhythm and EF group on outcome. Conclusion: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of AF was associated with a homogeneously elevated cardiovascular risk marker profile. In contrast, in patients with HFpEF, the presence of AF was associated with a more scattered risk marker profile, suggesting differences in underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of AF in these HF phenotypes.

Twenty-eight genetic loci associated with ST-T-wave amplitudes of the electrocardiogram.

The ST-segment and adjacent T-wave (ST-T wave) amplitudes of the electrocardiogram are quantitative characteristics of cardiac repolarization. Repolarization abnormalities have been linked to ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. We performed the first genome-wide association meta-analysis of ST-T-wave amplitudes in up to 37 977 individuals identifying 71 robust genotype-phenotype associations clustered within 28 independent loci. Fifty-four genes were prioritized as candidates underlying the phenotypes, including genes with established roles in the cardiac repolarization phase (SCN5A/SCN10A, KCND3, KCNB1, NOS1AP and HEY2) and others with as yet undefined cardiac function. These associations may provide insights in the spatiotemporal contribution of genetic variation influencing cardiac repolarization and provide novel leads for future functional follow-up.

Using matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) profiling in order to predict clinical outcomes of patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Current risk prediction models in heart failure (HF) including clinical characteristics and biomarkers only have moderate predictive value. The aim of this study was to use matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) profiling to determine if a combination of peptides identified with MALDI-MS will better predict clinical outcomes of patients with HF. METHODS: A cohort of 100 patients with HF were recruited in the biomarker discovery phase (50 patients who died or had a HF hospital admission vs. 50 patients who did not have an event). The peptide extraction from plasma samples was performed using reversed phase C18. Then samples were analysed using MALDI-MS. A multiple peptide biomarker model was discovered that was able to predict clinical outcomes for patients with HF. Finally, this model was validated in an independent cohort with 100 patients with HF. RESULTS: After normalisation and alignment of all the processed spectra, a total of 11,389 peptides (m/z) were detected using MALDI-MS. A multiple biomarker model was developed from 14 plasma peptides that was able to predict clinical outcomes in HF patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 1.000 (p = 0.0005). This model was validated in an independent cohort with 100 HF patients that yielded an AUC of 0.817 (p = 0.0005) in the biomarker validation phase. Addition of this model to the BIOSTAT risk prediction model increased the predictive probability for clinical outcomes of HF from an AUC value of 0.643 to an AUC of 0.823 (p = 0.0021). Moreover, using the prediction model of fourteen peptides and the composite model of the multiple biomarker of fourteen peptides with the BIOSTAT risk prediction model achieved a better predictive probability of time-to-event in prediction of clinical events in patients with HF (p = 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained in this study suggest that a cluster of plasma peptides using MALDI-MS can reliably predict clinical outcomes in HF that may help enable precision medicine in HF.

Identification of gaps in the current knowledge on pulmonary hypertension in extremely preterm infants: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension complicates the clinical course of extremely preterm infants and is associated with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). However, prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of pulmonary hypertension in these infants are insufficiently known. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to provide an up-to-date overview of available data on prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of pulmonary hypertension and to identify current knowledge gaps. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched in July 2017. Two authors reviewed titles/abstracts and full-texts. Eligible studies reported prevalence, patient characteristics or mortality of infants with/without pulmonary hypertension. Studies were excluded if they did not include extremely preterm infants. Only similar study samples (selected infants with BPD or infants both with/without BPD) were compared in the meta-analyses. RESULTS: Of 1829 unique articles identified, 25 were eligible for inclusion. Pulmonary hypertension was observed in infants with BPD (20%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14, 25), but also in those without BPD (2%, 95% CI 0, 8). Infants with severe BPD were most at risk of pulmonary hypertension (risk ratio [RR] 2.7, 95% CI 1.7, 4.2). Infants with pulmonary hypertension were more at risk of mortality (RR 4.7, 95% CI 2.7, 8.3). CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary hypertension occurs in particularly in infants with severe BPD, and increases risk of mortality. Due to selected study populations, heterogeneous pulmonary hypertension-definitions and poorly reported timing of pulmonary hypertension assessments, however, data available in current reports are insufficient to allow accurate assessment of true prevalence, risk factors, and time-related outcome. Prospective studies, with standardised methodology and follow-up are needed to determine these factors.

Physical Activity in Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Measured by Accelerometry. A Candidate Clinical Endpoint.

RATIONALE: The development of evidence-based treatment guidelines for pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is hampered by lack of pediatric clinical trials. Trial design is hampered by lack of a feasible clinical endpoint in this population. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the use of accelerometry for measuring physical activity (PA) in pediatric PAH and to investigate its correlation with clinical disease severity markers. METHODS: We included children from the Dutch National Network for Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension. Control patients were recruited from the outpatient cardiology clinic of the Beatrix Children's Hospital. Children were asked to wear the accelerometer for 7 days. Vector magnitude counts per minute (VM CPM) and time per day spent in different PA intensity levels were defined as accelerometer outcomes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: VM CPM was lower in children with PAH (n = 29) than in controls (n = 60; 647 vs. 921; P < 0.001). Children with PAH spent less time in moderate and vigorous PA (13 vs. 29 min/d and 2 vs. 13 min/d, respectively; P < 0.001). Time spent in moderate and vigorous PA correlated inversely with World Health Organization functional class. Time spent in moderate PA correlated positively with 6-minute-walk distance. In post hoc analyses, VM CPM and time spent in moderate/vigorous combined and vigorous PA were associated with outcome (P ≤ 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: PA is markedly decreased in children with PAH. Accelerometer output correlated with clinical disease severity markers and may predict outcome. We showed an exciting potential of PA as a meaningful endpoint for clinical trials in pediatric PAH, although its clinical utility and prognostic value need to be further validated.

Plasma N-terminal Prosomatostatin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in a Prospective Observational Cohort: the PREVEND Study.

BACKGROUND: Somatostatin is a component of the well-known insulin-like growth factor-1/growth hormone (GH) longevity axis. There is observational evidence that increased GH is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to investigate the potential association of plasma N-terminal fragment prosomatostatin (NT-proSST) with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in apparently healthy adults. METHODS: We studied 8134 participants without history of CVD (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%) from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study in Groningen, the Netherlands. Plasma NT-proSST was measured in baseline samples. Outcomes were incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses, NT-proSST [mean (SD), 384.0 (169.3) pmol/L] was positively associated with male sex and age (both P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 10.5 (Q1-Q3: 9.9-10.8) years, 708 (8.7%) participants developed CVD and 517 (6.4%) participants died. In univariable analyses, NT-proSST was associated with an increased risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality (both P < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, these associations were independent of the Framingham risk factors, with hazard ratios (95% CI) per doubling of NT-proSST of 1.17 (1.03-1.34; P = 0.02) for incident CVD and of 1.28 (1.09-1.49; P = 0.002) for all-cause mortality. Addition of NT-proSST to the updated Framingham Risk Score improved reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement (P < 0.001); net reclassification improvement was 2.5% (P = 0.04)). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma NT-proSST is positively associated with increased risk of future CVD and all-cause mortality, partly independent of traditional CVD risk factors. Further research is needed to address the nature of associations.

Relation of renal dysfunction with incident atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: The PREVEND study.

AIMS: Renal dysfunction is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, including atrial fibrillation (AF) and mortality. However, the exact pathobiology linking different renal dysfunction measures, such as albumin excretion or glomerular filtration rate (GFR), to cardiovascular- and AF risk are unclear. In this study, we investigated the association of several renal function measures and incident AF, and whether the relation between renal measures and outcomes is modified by AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 8265 individuals (age 49 ± 13 years, 50% women) included in the PREVEND study. We used albumin excretion (morning void and 24-h urine samples), serum creatinine, cystatin C, and Cystatin C-based, creatinine-based, and creatinine-cystatin C-based GFR as renal function measures; results: During a follow-up of 9.8 ± 2.3 years, 267 participants (3.2%) developed AF. In the multivariate-adjusted model, GFR, estimated by creatinine, cystatin C, or the combination was not associated with incident AF. However, increased albumin excretion was strongly associated with incident AF; urine albumin concentration and excretion (HRmorning void 1.10, P = 0.005 and HR24-hr collection 1.05, P = 0.033) and albumin creatinine ratio (HRmorning void 1.05, P = 0.010 and HR24-hr collection 1.06, P < 0.001). Interaction terms of incident AF and renal measures were not significant for incident cerebrovascular events, peripheral vascular events, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and mortality. CONCLUSION: In this community-based cohort, increased albumin excretion, and not GFR, was associated with incident AF, independent of established cardiovascular risk factors. Incidence of AF did not largely alter the association of renal dysfunction and cardiovascular outcomes.

Clinical, biomarker, and genetic predictors of specific types of atrial fibrillation in a community-based cohort: data of the PREVEND study.

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) may present variously in time, and AF may progress from self-terminating to non-self-terminating AF, and is associated with impaired prognosis. However, predictors of AF types are largely unexplored. We investigate the clinical, biomarker, and genetic predictors of development of specific types of AF in a community-based cohort. Methods: We included 8042 individuals (319 with incident AF) of the PREVEND study. Types of AF were compared, and multivariate multinomial regression analysis determined associations with specific types of AF. Results: Mean age was 48.5 ± 12.4 years and 50% were men. The types of incident AF were ascertained based on electrocardiograms; 103(32%) were classified as AF without 2-year recurrence, 158(50%) as self-terminating AF, and 58(18%) as non-self-terminating AF. With multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis, advancing age (P< 0.001 for all three types) was associated with all AF types, male sex was associated with AF without 2-year recurrence and self-terminating AF (P= 0.031 and P= 0.008, respectively). Increasing body mass index and MR-proANP were associated with both self-terminating (P= 0.009 and P< 0.001) and non-self-terminating AF (P= 0.003 and P< 0.001). The only predictor associated with solely self-terminating AF is prescribed anti-hypertensive treatment (P= 0.019). The following predictors were associated with non-self-terminating AF; lower heart rate (P= 0.018), lipid-lowering treatment prescribed (P= 0.009), and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (P= 0.006). Three known AF-genetic variants (rs6666258, rs6817105, and rs10821415) were associated with self-terminating AF. Conclusions: We found clinical, biomarker and genetic predictors of specific types of incident AF in a community-based cohort. The genetic background seems to play a more important role than modifiable risk factors in self-terminating AF.

Identifying Subpopulations with Distinct Response to Treatment Using Plasma Biomarkers in Acute Heart Failure: Results from the PROTECT Trial : Differential Response in Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 50 years, clinical trials of novel interventions for acute heart failure (AHF) have, with few exceptions, been neutral or shown harm. We hypothesize that this might be related to a differential response to pharmacological therapy. METHODS: We studied the magnitude of treatment effect of rolofylline across clinical characteristics and plasma biomarkers in 2033 AHF patients and derived a biomarker-based responder sum score model. Treatment response was survival from all-cause mortality through day 180. RESULTS: In the overall study population, rolofylline had no effect on mortality (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.28, p = 0.808). We found no treatment interaction across clinical characteristics, but we found interactions between several biomarkers and rolofylline. The biomarker-based sum score model included TNF-R1α, ST2, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein HE4 (WAP-4C), and total cholesterol, and the score ranged between 0 and 4. In patients with score 4 (those with increased TNF-R1α, ST2, WAP-4C, and low total cholesterol), treatment with rolofylline was beneficial (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.92, p = 0.019). In patients with score 0, treatment with rolofylline was harmful (HR 5.52, 95% CI 1.68-18.13, p = 0.005; treatment by score interaction p < 0.001). Internal validation estimated similar hazard ratio estimates (0 points: HR 5.56, 95% CI 5.27-7-5.87; 1 point: HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.25-1.33; 2 points: HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.74-0.76; 3 points: HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.11-1.15; 4 points, HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.61-0.62) compared to the original data. CONCLUSION: Biomarkers are superior to clinical characteristics to study treatment heterogeneity in acute heart failure.

Plasma Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and Predicting Clinically Relevant Worsening Renal Function in Acute Heart Failure.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) to predict clinically relevant worsening renal function (WRF) in acute heart failure (AHF). Plasma NGAL and serum creatinine changes during the first 4 days of admission were investigated in 1447 patients hospitalized for AHF and enrolled in the Placebo-Controlled Randomized Study of the Selective A1Adenosine Receptor Antagonist Rolofylline for Patients Hospitalized with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure and Volume Overload to Assess Treatment Effect on Congestion and Renal Function (PROTECT) study. WRF was defined as serum creatinine rise ≥ 0.3 mg/dL through day 4. Biomarker patterns were described using linear mixed models. WRF developed in 325 patients (22%). Plasma NGAL did not rise earlier than creatinine in patients with WRF. After multivariable adjustment, baseline plasma NGAL, but not creatinine, predicted WRF. AUCs for WRF prediction were modest (<0.60) for all models. NGAL did not independently predict death or rehospitalization (p = n.s.). Patients with WRF and high baseline plasma NGAL had a greater risk of death, and renal or cardiovascular rehospitalization by 60 days than patients with WRF and a low baseline plasma NGAL (p for interaction = 0.024). A rise in plasma NGAL after baseline was associated with a worse outcome in patients with WRF, but not in patients without WRF (p = 0.007). On the basis of these results, plasma NGAL does not provide additional, clinically relevant information about the occurrence of WRF in patients with AHF.