Automated Software System to Promote Anticoagulation and Reduce Stroke Risk: Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Oral anticoagulants (OAC) substantially reduce risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation, but uptake is suboptimal. Electronic health records enable automated identification of people at risk but not receiving treatment. We investigated the effectiveness of a software tool (AURAS-AF [Automated Risk Assessment for Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation]) designed to identify such individuals during routine care through a cluster-randomized trial. METHODS: Screen reminders appeared each time the electronic health records of an eligible patient was accessed until a decision had been taken over OAC treatment. Where OAC was not started, clinicians were prompted to indicate a reason. Control practices continued usual care. The primary outcome was the proportion of eligible individuals receiving OAC at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included rates of cardiovascular events and reports of adverse effects of the software on clinical decision-making. RESULTS: Forty-seven practices were randomized. The mean proportion-prescribed OAC at 6 months was 66.3% (SD=9.3) in the intervention arm and 63.9% (9.5) in the control arm (adjusted difference 1.21% [95% confidence interval -0.72 to 3.13]). Incidence of recorded transient ischemic attack was higher in the intervention practices (median 10.0 versus 2.3 per 1000 patients with atrial fibrillation; P=0.027), but at 12 months, we found a lower incidence of both all cause stroke (P=0.06) and hemorrhage (P=0.054). No adverse effects of the software were reported. CONCLUSIONS: No significant change in OAC prescribing occurred. A greater rate of diagnosis of transient ischemic attack (possibly because of improved detection or overdiagnosis) was associated with a reduction (of borderline significance) in stroke and hemorrhage over 12 months. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique Identifier: ISRCTN55722437.

Telephone triage for management of same-day consultation requests in general practice (the ESTEEM trial): a cluster-randomised controlled trial and cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Telephone triage is increasingly used to manage workload in primary care; however, supporting evidence for this approach is scarce. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost consequences of general practitioner-(GP)-led and nurse-led telephone triage compared with usual care for patients seeking same-day consultations in primary care. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, cluster-randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation between March 1, 2011, and March 31, 2013, at 42 practices in four centres in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1:1), via a computer-generated randomisation sequence minimised for geographical location, practice deprivation, and practice list size, to either GP-led triage, nurse-led computer-supported triage, or usual care. We included patients who telephoned the practice seeking a same-day face-to-face consultation with a GP. Allocations were concealed from practices until after they had agreed to participate and a stochastic element was included within the minimisation algorithm to maintain concealment. Patients, clinicians, and researchers were not masked to allocation, but practice assignment was concealed from the trial statistician. The primary outcome was primary care workload (patient contacts, including those attending accident and emergency departments) in the 28 days after the first same-day request. Analyses were by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN register, number ISRCTN20687662. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 42 practices to GP triage (n=13), nurse triage (n=15), or usual care (n=14), and 20,990 patients (n=6695 vs 7012 vs 7283) were randomly assigned, of whom 16,211 (77%) patients provided primary outcome data (n=5171 vs 5468 vs 5572). GP triage was associated with a 33% increase in the mean number of contacts per person over 28 days compared with usual care (2·65 [SD 1·74] vs 1·91 [1·43]; rate ratio [RR] 1·33, 95% CI 1·30-1·36), and nurse triage with a 48% increase (2·81 [SD 1·68]; RR 1·48, 95% CI 1·44-1·52). Eight patients died within 7 days of the index request: five in the GP-triage group, two in the nurse-triage group, and one in the usual-care group; however, these deaths were not associated with the trial group or procedures. Although triage interventions were associated with increased contacts, estimated costs over 28 days were similar between all three groups (roughly £75 per patient). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of telephone triage delivered by a GP or nurse was associated with an increase in the number of primary care contacts in the 28 days after a patient's request for a same-day GP consultation, with similar costs to those of usual care. Telephone triage might be useful in aiding the delivery of primary care. The whole-system implications should be assessed when introduction of such a system is considered. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment Programme UK National Institute for Health Research.

Estimating the diagnostic accuracy of rheumatoid factor in UK primary care: a study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of RF as a test for RA in primary care and its impact on referral times using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. METHODS: We identified all patients with a first RF test recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2008 and those diagnosed with RA within 2 years of testing. We calculated likelihood ratios (LRs), sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of RF for a diagnosis of RA. We compared time to hospital referral in those testing positive and negative using Kaplan-Meier failure curves and log-rank tests. RESULTS: Of 62 436 first RF tests, 4679 (7.5%) were positive. There were 1753 incident cases of RA, of which 57.8% were seropositive. The positive LR for RF was 9.5 (95% CI 9.0, 10.0) and the negative LR was 0.5 (95% CI 0.4, 0.5). Sensitivity and specificity were 57.8% (95% CI 55.4%, 60.1%) and 93.9% (95% CI 93.7%, 94.1%) and the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 21.4% (95% CI 20.3%, 22.6%) and 98.7% (95% CI 98.6%, 98.8%), respectively. Median time to first hospital contact after the first RF test in those with seropositive vs seronegative results was 54 days (95% CI 49, 58) vs 150 (95% CI 147, 152). CONCLUSION: Only 2.8% of patients undergoing RF testing were diagnosed with RA, suggesting that RF is used to screen patients with musculoskeletal symptoms rather than those with more specific features of RA. A positive RF test may be helpful in diagnosing RA in primary care but performs badly in excluding RA and may delay referral.

Missing laboratory test data in electronic general practice records: analysis of rheumatoid factor recording in the clinical practice research datalink.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether information from the literature could be used to identify periods of practice data in an electronic healthcare database during which rheumatoid factor (RF) test results are likely to be missing-not-at-random (MNAR). METHODS: RF tests recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were identified and defined as having a positive, negative or missing result. The proportion of positive test results was then calculated based on (i) complete-case analysis (ii) after restriction to tests from practice years with no missing test results and (iii) following multiple imputation of missing test results. The same three analyses were then carried out after excluding practice years with a proportion of positive tests incompatible with the missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption. RESULTS: We identified 127,969 RF test records, 30.4% of which did not have an associated test result. Among tests with results available, 19% were positive. Both multiple imputation of the 38,867 missing test results and restriction of the study population to the 491 practice years with complete data had little impact on the percentage of positive tests. Following exclusion of the 544 practice years in which data were likely to be MNAR the percentage of positive tests in all analyses decreased to ~7%. CONCLUSIONS: Recording of RF tests and RF test results in the CPRD is incomplete, with data likely to be MNAR in many practices. Exclusion of practice years with a high proportion of positive tests brought the distribution of positive tests in the study in line with the literature.

Changing clinical practice through patient specific reminders available at the time of the clinical encounter: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesise current evidence for the influence on clinical behaviour of patient-specific electronically generated reminders available at the time of the clinical encounter. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Cochrane library of systematic reviews; Science Citation Index Expanded; Social Sciences Citation Index; ASSIA; EMBASE; CINAHL; DARE; HMIC were searched for relevant articles. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: We included controlled trials of reminder interventions if the intervention was: directed at clinician behaviour; available during the clinical encounter; computer generated (including computer generated paper-based reminders); and generated by patient-specific (rather than condition specific or drug specific) data. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled trials published since 1970. A random effects model was used to derive a pooled odds ratio for adherence to recommended care or achievement of target outcome. Subgroups were examined based on area of care and study design. Odds ratios were derived for each sub-group. We examined the designs, settings and other features of reminders looking for factors associated with a consistent effect. RESULTS: Altogether, 42 papers met the inclusion criteria. The studies were of variable quality and some were affected by unit of analysis errors due to a failure to account for clustering. An overall odds ratio of 1.79 [95% confidence interval 1.56, 2.05] in favour of reminders was derived. Heterogeneity was high and factors predicting effect size were difficult to identify. LIMITATIONS: Methodological diversity added to statistical heterogeneity as an obstacle to meta-analysis. The quality of included studies was variable and in some reports procedural details were lacking. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: The analysis suggests a moderate effect of electronically generated, individually tailored reminders on clinician behaviour during the clinical encounter. Future research should concentrate on identifying the features of reminder interventions most likely to result in the target behaviour.

Use and risk of side effects of antiresorptive medication in people with intellectual disabilities.

Background: Recent studies show that adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) have high incidence of major osteoporotic fracture, especially hip fracture. In those ≥ 50 years, women and men with ID have an approximately two and four times higher rate of hip fracture than women and men without ID. Increased awareness of osteoporotic fracture risk in ID may lead to wider use of antiresorptive drugs (bisphosphonates and denosumab) in this population. We aimed to compare, between people with and without ID, the incidence of 1) major side effects, namely medication related osteoporosis of the jaw (ONJ) and oesophagitis; 2) oral pathology, which can be a risk factor for ONJ. Methods: Exploratory study investigating safety of first line osteoporosis medication within the population of a previous study comparing fracture incidence in people with and without ID in the GOLD database of the Clinical Practice Research Datalink 1998-2017. Results: The percentage of people on antiresorptive drugs was identical in the ID and non ID group (1.4%). The number of individuals who developed ONJ and oesophagitis during the study was too low to allow an accurate estimate of incidence of the events and a comparison between the two groups. The incidence of any oral pathology was 119.31 vs 64.68/10000 person year in the ID vs non ID group. Conclusions: Medication related ONJ and oesophagitis are rare in people with and without ID. There is no reason based on our findings to use antiresorptives differently in people with ID as in the rest of the population. However, the potential for side effects of antiresorptives will inherently increase with wider use of these drugs. Given the higher incidence of oral pathology in people with ID, which could put them at higher risk of ONJ, precautions should be taken to prevent this complication by attention to oral health.

Fracture rates have recently been shown to be substantially higher in people with intellectual disabilities (ID). This finding is likely to lead to the wider use of bone strengthening (antiresorptive) agents in this group, namely bisphosphonates and denosumab. These drugs are effective at reducing the risk of fractures, but carry potential adverse effects. One of these is the rare but serious condition osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ). We studied general practice records to investigate whether the incidence of this problem is higher in people with ID taking these drugs. We also looked at the incidence of oral conditions that may put an individual at higher risk of it, including periodontitis, dental abscess, and tooth extractions. The recording of ONJ in people with ID was extremely low, no different from the general population in our study, although we were using general practice rather than dental records. However, dental problems that might predispose to it were recorded nearly twice as frequently in the group with ID. The other side effect we looked at was oesophagitis, which was not found to be more common in people with ID taking bisphosphonates. This study highlights the need to provide good oral hygiene, dental care and surveillance in people with ID receiving antiresorptive drug therapy.

Trends in the full blood count blood test and colorectal cancer detection: a longitudinal, case-control study of UK primary care patient data.

Background: The full blood count (FBC) is a common blood test performed in general practice. It consists of many individual parameters that may change over time due to colorectal cancer. Such changes are likely missed in practice. We identified trends in these FBC parameters to facilitate early detection of colorectal cancer. Methods: We performed a retrospective, case-control, longitudinal analysis of UK primary care patient data. LOWESS smoothing and mixed effects models were derived to compare trends in each FBC parameter between patients diagnosed and not diagnosed over a prior 10-year period. Results: There were 399,405 males (2.3%, n = 9,255 diagnosed) and 540,544 females (1.5%, n = 8,153 diagnosed) in the study. There was no difference between cases and controls in FBC trends between 10 and four years before diagnosis. Within four years of diagnosis, trends in many FBC levels statistically significantly differed between cases and controls, including red blood cell count, haemoglobin, white blood cell count, and platelets (interaction between time and colorectal cancer presence: p <0.05). FBC trends were similar between Duke's Stage A and D colorectal tumours, but started around one year earlier in Stage D diagnoses. Conclusions: Trends in FBC parameters are different between patients with and without colorectal cancer for up to four years prior to diagnosis. Such trends could help earlier identification.

Colorectal cancer is a common type of cancer in the UK. It is the second most common cause of cancer-related death in the UK. Chances of surviving depend heavily on the tumour stage at diagnosis, which represents how much the tumour has developed. If diagnosed and treated at the earliest stage, where the tumour is confined to the colon, nine in 10 patients are expected to be alive five years later. If diagnosed at the latest stage, when the cancer has spread outside the colon, this drops to one in 10 surviving. The majority of UK patients with colorectal cancer are diagnosed with late-stage tumours, so are likely to die. Detecting and treating the cancer earlier can save lives. There is a blood test called the Full Blood Count, which is commonly ordered by doctors for many reasons. This test includes many blood levels, such as haemoglobin, which carries oxygen around the body. Growing tumours cause subtle changes in the blood levels over time, but it is unclear what these changes are and if they could help find cancer in the early stages. In our study, we looked at blood tests from almost one million patients in the UK, including around 17,000 with colorectal cancer. We checked how blood levels change over 10 years before diagnosis. We found that in the few years before patients are diagnosed, patients usually had blood levels that rapidly started increasing or declining (depending on the blood level) and this was often not seen in patients without colorectal cancer. Our study highlights that using trends over time in blood test results may be useful to identify colorectal cancer. Such trends could facilitate earlier detection because they were present for years before diagnosis. That would improve the chances of successful treatment and chances of survival.

Incidence of fractures in people with intellectual disabilities over the life course: a retrospective matched cohort study.

Background: Current osteoporosis guidelines do not identify individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) as at risk of fracture, potentially missing opportunities for prevention. We aimed to assess the incidence of fractures in people with ID over the life course. Methods: Descriptive analysis of open cohort study using anonymised electronic health records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics database (Jan 1, 1998-Dec 31, 2017). All individuals with ID were matched on age and sex to five individuals without ID.  We calculated the incidence rate (95% CI) per 10000 person-years (py) and incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% CI) to compare fractures between individuals with and without ID (age 1-17 and ≥18 years) for any fracture, and in those aged 18-49 and ≥ 50 years for major osteoporotic fracture (vertebra, shoulder, wrist, hip), and for hip fracture. Findings: 43176 individuals with ID (15470 children aged 1-17 years; 27706 adults aged ≥ 18 years) were identified and included (40.4% females) along with 215733 matched control individuals.  The median age at study entry was 24 (10th-90th centiles 3-54) years. Over a median (10th-90th centile) follow-up of 7.1 (0.9-17.6) and 6.5 (0.8-17.6) years, there were 5941 and 24363 incident fractures in the ID and non ID groups respectively. Incidence of any fracture was 143.5 (131.8-156.3) vs 120.7 (115.4-126.4)/10000 py (children), 174.2 (166.4-182.4)/10000 py vs 118.2 (115.3-121.2)/10000 py (adults) in females. In males it was 192.5 (182.4-203.2) vs 228.5 (223.0-234.1)/10000 py (children), 155.6 (149.3-162.1)/10000 py vs 128.4 (125.9-131.0)/10000 py (adults). IRR for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.81 (1.50-2.18) age 18-49 years, 1.69 (1.53-1.87) age ≥ 50 years in women. In men it was 1.56 (1.36-1.79) age 18-49 years, 2.45 (2.13-2.81) age ≥ 50 years. IRR for hip fracture was 7.79 (4.14-14.65) age 18-49 years, 2.28 (1.91-2.71) age ≥ 50 years in women. In men it was 6.04 (4.18-8.73) age 18-49 years, 3.91 (3.17-4.82) age ≥ 50 years. Comparable rates of major osteoporotic fracture and of hip fracture occurred approximately 15 and 20 years earlier respectively in women and 20 and 30 years earlier respectively in men with ID than without ID. Fracture distribution differed profoundly, hip fracture 9.9% vs 5.0% of any fracture in adults with ID vs without ID. Interpretation: The incidence, type, and distribution of fractures in people with intellectual disabilities suggest early onset osteoporosis. Prevention and management strategies are urgently required, particularly to reduce the incidence of hip fracture. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Components of the full blood count as risk factors for colorectal cancer detection: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer is the fourth most common type of cancer and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in the UK. The full blood count (FBC) is a blood test that may play a role in early detection of the disease. Previous studies have aimed to identify how levels of individual components, such as haemoglobin, can be used to assist the diagnosis. We aim to systematically review studies to identify whether components of the FBC are risk factors for diagnosis of colorectal cancer, critically appraise the methods used to assess the association and assess performance of the components. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The MEDLINE (via OVID), EMBASE (via OVID), CINAHL (via EBSCOhost) and Web of Science databases will be searched to identify studies reporting the association between the levels of at least one FBC component and the risk of a future diagnosis of colorectal cancer in undiagnosed individuals. Clincialtrials.gov and the WHO registry will be searched to identify relevant ongoing research. Search terms will include relevant Medical Subject Headings and Emtree headings, and free-text terms relating to FBC, colorectal cancer and diagnosis. No date or language restrictions will be applied. Two reviewers will independently identify the studies for inclusion and perform data extraction. Time intervals between the blood tests and diagnosis will form the subgroups for analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: There is no direct patient involvement and only published articles will be reviewed; no ethical approval is required. Results from this review will set a foundation for intended future work on developing a new risk score for early detection of colorectal cancer, derived using FBC data. This systematic review will also provide guidance on the analysis of time to diagnosis. The model will be freely available to UK primary care practices. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019134400.

Identifying undiagnosed diabetes: cross-sectional survey of 3.6 million patients' electronic records.

BACKGROUND: Around 1% of the UK population has diabetes that is either undiagnosed or unrecorded on practice disease registers. AIM: To estimate the number of people in UK primary care databases with biochemical evidence of undiagnosed diabetes. To develop simple practice-based search techniques to support early recognition of diabetes. DESIGN OF STUDY: Cross-sectional survey of 3 630 296 electronic records. SETTING: Four hundred and eighty UK practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. METHOD: Electronic searches to identify people with no diabetes diagnosis in one of two categories (A and B), using the most recently recorded blood glucose measurement: random blood glucose level >or=11.1 mmol/l or fasting blood glucose level >or=7.0 mmol/l (A); either a random or a fasting blood glucose level >or=7.0 mmol/l (B). An additional outcome measure was the proportion of the population with at least one blood glucose measurement in the record. RESULTS: The number (percentage) identified in category A was 3758 (0.10% of the total population); the number in category B was 32 785 (0.90%). Projected to a practice of 7000 patients, around eight patients have biochemical evidence of undiagnosed diabetes, and 68 have results suggesting the need for further follow-up. One-third of people aged over 40 years without diabetes have a blood glucose measurement in the past 2 years in their record. CONCLUSION: People with possible undiagnosed diabetes are readily identifiable in UK primary care databases through electronic searches using blood glucose data. People with borderline levels, who may benefit from interventions to reduce their risk of progression to diabetes, can also be identified using practice-based software.

Identifying individuals for primary cardiovascular disease prevention in UK general practice: priorities and resource implications.

Targeted cardiovascular disease prevention relies on risk-factor information held in primary care records. A risk algorithm, the 'e-Nudge', was applied to data from a population of >or=50-year-olds in 19 West Midlands practices, to identify those individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease. Altogether, 5.9% were identified aged 50-74 years at >or=20% 10-year risk based on existing data, and a further 26.4% were potentially at risk but had missing risk-factor information; 9.2% of patients aged over 50 years with established cardiovascular disease had at least one modifiable risk factor outside the audit target of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Implications for resource allocation are discussed.

Factors associated with consultation rates in general practice in England, 2013-2014: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Workload in general practice has risen during the last decade, but the factors associated with this increase are unclear. AIM: To examine factors associated with consultation rates in general practice. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study examining a sample of 304 937 patients registered at 316 English practices between 2013 and 2014, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. METHOD: Age, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, and deprivation measures were linked with practice-level data on staffing, rurality, training practice status, and Quality and Outcomes Framework performance. Multilevel analyses of patient consultation rates were conducted. RESULTS: Consultations were grouped into three types: all (GP or nurse), GP, and nurse. Non-smokers consulted less than current smokers (all: rate ratio [RR] = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.89; GP: RR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.89; nurse: RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.90 to 0.92). Consultation rates were higher for those in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived quintile (all: RR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.19; GP: RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.19; nurse: RR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.15). For all three consultation types, consultation rates increased with age and female sex, and varied by ethnicity. Rates in practices with >8 and ≤19 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs were higher compared with those with ≤2 FTE GPs (all: RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.49; GP: RR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.56). CONCLUSION: The analyses show consistent trends in factors related to consultation rates in general practice across three types of consultation. These data can be used to inform the development of more sophisticated staffing models, and resource allocation formulae.

Barriers to a software reminder system for risk assessment of stroke in atrial fibrillation: a process evaluation of a cluster randomised trial in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants reduce the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but are underused. AURAS-AF (AUtomated Risk Assessment for Stroke in AF) is a software tool designed to identify eligible patients and promote discussions within consultations about initiating anticoagulants. AIM: To investigate the implementation of the software in UK general practice. DESIGN AND SETTING: Process evaluation involving 23 practices randomly allocated to use AURAS-AF during a cluster randomised trial. METHOD: An initial invitation to discuss anticoagulation was followed by screen reminders appearing during consultations until a decision had been made. The reminders required responses, giving reasons for cases where an anticoagulant was not initiated. Qualitative interviews with clinicians and patients explored acceptability and usability. RESULTS: In a sample of 476 patients eligible for the invitation letter, only 159 (33.4%) were considered suitable for invitation by their GPs. Reasons given were frequently based on frailty, and risk of falls or haemorrhage. Of those invited, 35 (22%) started an anticoagulant (7.4% of those originally identified). A total of 1695 main-screen reminders occurred in 940 patients. In 883 instances, the decision was taken not to initiate and a range of reasons offered. Interviews with 15 patients and seven clinicians indicated that the intervention was acceptable, though the issue of disruptive screen reminders was raised. CONCLUSION: Automated risk assessment for stroke in atrial fibrillation and prompting during consultations are feasible and generally acceptable, but did not overcome concerns about frailty and risk of haemorrhage as barriers to anticoagulant uptake.

Evaluation of a prediction model for colorectal cancer: retrospective analysis of 2.5 million patient records.

Earlier detection of colorectal cancer greatly improves prognosis, largely through surgical excision of neoplastic polyps. These include benign adenomas which can transform over time to malignant adenocarcinomas. This progression may be associated with changes in full blood count indices. An existing risk algorithm derived in Israel stratifies individuals according to colorectal cancer risk using full blood count data, but has not been validated in the UK. We undertook a retrospective analysis using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Patients aged over 40 with full blood count data were risk-stratified and followed up for a diagnosis of colorectal cancer over a range of time intervals. The primary outcome was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 18-24-month interval. We also undertook a case-control analysis (matching for age, sex, and year of risk score), and a cohort study of patients undergoing full blood count testing during 2012, to estimate predictive values. We included 2,550,119 patients. The area under the curve for the 18-24-month interval was 0.776 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.771, 0.781]. Performance improves as the time interval reduces. The area under the curve for the age-matched case-control analysis was 0.583 [0.574, 0.591]. For the population risk-scored in 2012, the positive predictive value at 99.5% specificity was 8.8% with negative predictive value 99.6%. The algorithm offers an additional means of identifying risk of colorectal cancer, and could support other approaches to early detection, including screening and active case finding.

Patient-level and practice-level factors associated with consultation duration: a cross-sectional analysis of over one million consultations in English primary care.

OBJECTIVES: Consultation duration has previously been shown to be associated with patient, practitioner and practice characteristics. However, previous studies were conducted outside the UK, considered only small numbers of general practitioner (GP) consultations or focused primarily on practitioner-level characteristics. We aimed to determine the patient-level and practice-level factors associated with duration of GP and nurse consultations in UK primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional data were obtained from English general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to data on patient deprivation and practice staffing, rurality and Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) achievement. PARTICIPANTS: 218 304 patients, from 316 English general practices, consulting from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014. ANALYSIS: Multilevel mixed-effects models described the association between consultation duration and patient-level and practice-level factors (patient age, gender, smoking status, ethnic group, deprivation and practice rurality, number of full-time equivalent GPs/nurses, list size, consultation rate, quintile of overall QOF achievement and training status). RESULTS: Mean duration of face-to-face GP consultations was 9.24 min and 5.32 min for telephone consultations. Nurse face-to-face and telephone consultations lasted 9.70 and 5.73 min on average, respectively. Longer GP consultation duration was associated with female patient gender, practice training status and older patient age. Shorter duration was associated with higher deprivation and consultation rate. Longer nurse consultation duration was associated with male patient gender, older patient age and ever smoking; and shorter duration with higher consultation rate. Observed differences in duration were small (eg, GP consultations with female patients compared with male patients were 8 s longer on average). CONCLUSIONS: Small observed differences in consultation duration indicate that patients are treated similarly regardless of background. Increased consultation duration may be beneficial for older or comorbid patients, but the benefits and costs of increased consultation duration require further study.

Incidence of shoulder dislocations in the UK, 1995-2015: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This cohort study evaluates the unknown age-specific and gender-specific incidence of primary shoulder dislocations in the UK. SETTING: UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used to identify patients aged 16-70 years with a shoulder dislocation during 1995-2015. Coding of primary shoulder dislocations was validated using the CPRD general practitioner questionnaire service. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 16 763 patients with shoulder dislocation aged 16-70 years during 1995-2015 were identified. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years and 95% CIs were calculated. RESULTS: Correct coding of shoulder dislocation within CPRD was 89% (95% CI 83% to 95%), and confirmation that the dislocation was a 'primary' was 76% (95% CI 67% to 85%). Seventy-two percent of shoulder dislocations occurred in men. The overall incidence rate in men was 40.4 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 40.4 to 40.4), and in women was 15.5 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 15.5 to 15.5). The highest incidence was observed in men aged 16-20 years (80.5 per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI 80.5 to 80.6). Incidence in women increased with age to a peak of 28.6 per 100 000 person-years among those aged 61-70 years. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time the incidence of shoulder dislocations has been studied using primary care data from a national database, and the first time the results for the UK have been produced. While most primary dislocations occurred in young men, an unexpected finding was that the incidence increased in women aged over 50 years, but not in men. The reasons for this are unknown. Further work is commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research to examine treatments and predictors for recurrent shoulder dislocation. STUDY REGISTRATION: The design of this study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (15_260) for the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

A data driven nonlinear stochastic model for blood glucose dynamics.

The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose-insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose-insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some postprandial blood glucose excursions can be described by a reduced (linear) model, previously seen in the literature. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates that deterministic system parameters belong to different ranges for diabetes and controls. Implications for clinical practice are discussed. This is the first study introducing a continuous data-driven nonlinear stochastic model capable of describing both DM and non-DM profiles.

Telephone triage systems in UK general practice: analysis of consultation duration during the index day in a pragmatic randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Telephone triage is an increasingly common means of handling requests for same-day appointments in general practice. AIM: To determine whether telephone triage (GP-led or nurse-led) reduces clinician-patient contact time on the day of the request (the index day), compared with usual care. DESIGN AND SETTING: A total of 42 practices in England recruited to the ESTEEM trial. METHOD: Duration of initial contact (following the appointment request) was measured for all ESTEEM trial patients consenting to case notes review, and that of a sample of subsequent face-to-face consultations, to produce composite estimates of overall clinician time during the index day. RESULTS: Data were available from 16,711 initial clinician-patient contacts, plus 1290 GP, and 176 nurse face-to-face consultations. The mean (standard deviation) duration of initial contacts in each arm was: GP triage 4.0 (2.8) minutes; nurse triage 6.6 (3.8) minutes; and usual care 9.5 (5.0) minutes. Estimated overall contact duration (including subsequent contacts on the same day) was 10.3 minutes for GP triage, 14.8 minutes for nurse triage, and 9.6 minutes for usual care. In nurse triage, more than half the duration of clinician contact (7.7 minutes) was with a GP. This was less than the 9.0 minutes of GP time used in GP triage. CONCLUSION: Telephone triage is not associated with a reduction in overall clinician contact time during the index day. Nurse-led triage is associated with a reduction in GP contact time but with an overall increase in clinician contact time. Individual practices may wish to interpret the findings in the context of the available skill mix of clinicians.

The effect of nurses' preparedness and nurse practitioner status on triage call management in primary care: A secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the ESTEEM trial.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-led telephone triage is increasingly used to manage demand for general practitioner consultations in UK general practice. Previous studies are equivocal about the relationship between clinical experience and the call outcomes of nurse triage. Most research is limited to investigating nurse telephone triage in out-of-hours settings. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the professional characteristics of primary care nurses undertaking computer decision supported software telephone triage are related to call disposition. DESIGN: Questionnaire survey of nurses delivering the nurse intervention arm of the ESTEEM trial, to capture role type (practice nurse or nurse practitioner), prescriber status, number of years' nursing experience, graduate status, previous experience of triage, and perceived preparedness for triage. Our main outcome was the proportion of triaged patients recommended for follow-up within the practice (call disposition), including all contact types (face-to-face, telephone or home visit), by a general practitioner or nurse. SETTINGS: 15 general practices and 7012 patients receiving the nurse triage intervention in four regions of the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 45 nurse practitioners and practice nurse trained in the use of clinical decision support software. METHODS: We investigated the associations between nursing characteristics and triage call disposition for patient 'same-day' appointment requests in general practice using multivariable logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: Valid responses from 35 nurses (78%) from 14 practices: 31/35 (89%) had ≥10 years' experience with 24/35 (69%) having ≥20 years. Most patient contacts (3842/4605; 86%) were recommended for follow-up within the practice. Nurse practitioners were less likely to recommend patients for follow-up odds ratio 0.19, 95% confidence interval 0.07; 0.49 than practice nurses. Nurses who reported that their previous experience had prepared them less well for triage were more likely to recommend patients for follow-up (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.18-5.55). CONCLUSION: Nurse characteristics were associated with disposition of triage calls to within practice follow-up. Nurse practitioners or those who reported feeling 'more prepared' for the role were more likely to manage the call definitively. Practices considering nurse triage should ensure that nurses transitioning into new roles feel adequately prepared. While standardised training is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure successful implementation.

The South Warwickshire NHS Care Records Service Demonstrator Project: lessons for the National Programme for IT.

The NHS Care Records Service (CRS) is a major goal of the National Health Service (NHS) Modernisation Programme. It will provide for 24-hour access by clinicians to electronic patient records and the integration of information from previously separate databases, reducing the 'seams' between primary and secondary care, between out-of-hours and ordinary working hours, and ultimately between health and social care. Such integration is likely to affect not only individual patient care, but also public health including disease surveillance, and the monitoring of clinical activities including the achievement of clinical governance targets. The potential benefits for patients, practitioners and managers are numerous. However, the process raises issues over confidentiality, data protection and data quality. During 2003 a project was undertaken in South Warwickshire to develop an NHS CRS widely available to primary care clinicians in the region. This was part of a wider initiative funded by the NHS Connecting for Health (NHS CfH). Twenty-six out of 36 local practices took part, providing a combined database of 181,961 clinical records. All but one of the original objectives was achieved. Lessons were learned which could usefully inform the development of the CRS more generally in the NHS.