Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking. METHODS: We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined. RESULTS: As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland. CONCLUSIONS: The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.

Mapping the distribution of sandflies and sandfly-associated pathogens in China.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and mapping the distribution of sandflies and sandfly-associated pathogens (SAPs) is crucial for guiding the surveillance and control effort. However, their distribution and the related risk burden in China remain poorly understood. METHODS: We mapped the distribution of sandflies and SAPs using literature data from 1940 to 2022. We also mapped the human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases using surveillance data from 2014 to 2018. The ecological drivers of 12 main sandfly species and VL were identified by applying machine learning, and their distribution and risk were predicted in three time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080) under three scenarios of climate and socioeconomic changes. RESULTS: In the mainland of China, a total of 47 sandfly species have been reported, with the main 12 species classified into three clusters according to their ecological niches. Additionally, 6 SAPs have been identified, which include two protozoa, two bacteria, and two viruses. The incidence risk of different VL subtypes was closely associated with the distribution risk of specific vectors. The model predictions also revealed a substantial underestimation of the current sandfly distribution and VL risk. The predicted areas affected by the 12 major species of sandflies and the high-risk areas for VL were found to be 37.9-1121.0% and 136.6% larger, respectively, than the observed range in the areas. The future global changes were projected to decrease the risk of mountain-type zoonotic VL (MT-ZVL), but anthroponotic VL (AVL) and desert-type zoonotic VL (DT-ZVL) could remain stable or slightly increase. CONCLUSIONS: Current field observations underestimate the spatial distributions of main sandfly species and VL in China. More active surveillance and field investigations are needed where high risks are predicted, especially in areas where the future risk of VL is projected to remain high or increase.