Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.

BACKGROUND: Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one). METHODS: Data on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitted exponential distribution for the year-by-year distribution of TF prevalence. The probability of a district being a transmission-hotspot is extrapolated from the residuals of the regression. RESULTS: Forecasts suggest that with current interventions, 96.5% of surveyed districts will have TF prevalence among children aged 1-9 years <5% by 2030 (95% CI: 86.6%-100.0%). Districts with TF prevalence < 20% appear unlikely to be transmission-hotspots. However, a district having TF prevalence of over 28% in 2016-2019 corresponds to at least 50% probability of being a transmission-hotspot. CONCLUSIONS: Sustainable control of trachoma appears achievable. However there are transmission-hotspots that are not responding to annual mass drug administration of azithromycin and require enhanced treatment in order to reach local control.

Investment Success in Public Health: An Analysis of the Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.

Background: It has been estimated that $154 million per year will be required during 2015-2020 to continue the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). In light of this, it is important to understand the program's current value. Here, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the preventive chemotherapy that was provided under the GPELF between 2000 and 2014. In addition, we also investigate the potential cost-effectiveness of hydrocele surgery. Methods: Our economic evaluation of preventive chemotherapy was based on previously published health and economic impact estimates (between 2000 and 2014). The delivery costs of treatment were estimated using a model developed by the World Health Organization. We also developed a model to investigate the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by a hydrocelectomy and identified the cost threshold under which it would be considered cost-effective. Results: The projected cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of preventive chemotherapy were very promising, and this was robust over a wide range of costs and assumptions. When the economic value of the donated drugs was not included, the GPELF would be classed as highly cost-effective. We projected that a typical hydrocelectomy would be classed as highly cost-effective if the surgery cost less than $66 and cost-effective if less than $398 (based on the World Bank's cost-effectiveness thresholds for low income countries). Conclusions: Both the preventive chemotherapy and hydrocele surgeries provided under the GPELF are incredibly cost-effective and offer a very good investment in public health.

Safety of integrated preventive chemotherapy for neglected tropical diseases.

BACKGROUND: Preventive chemotherapy (PC) is a central strategy for control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Increased emphasis has been given to "integration" of NTD programs within health systems and coadministration of NTD drugs offers significant programmatic benefits. Guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO) reflects current evidence for safe drug coadministration and highlights measures to prevent choking of young children during PC. METHODOLOGY: To understand how coadministration of NTD drugs might affect PC safety, we reviewed literature on choking risk in young children and safety of coadministered NTD drugs. To understand current practices of drug coadministration, we surveyed 15 NTD program managers and implementing partners. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In high-income countries, choking on medication is an infrequent cause of death in young children. In low-resource settings, data are limited, but age-appropriate drug formulations are less available. During PC, fatal choking, although infrequent, occurs primarily in young children; forcing them to swallow tablets appears to be the major risk factor. The WHO currently recommends 6 drugs and 5 possible drug combinations for use in PC. Of 105 nations endemic for the 5 PC-NTDs, 72 (68.6%) are co-endemic for 2 or more diseases and could benefit from drug coadministration during PC. All 15 survey respondents reported coadministering medications during PC. Reported responses to a child refusing to take medicine included: not forcing the child to do so (60.0%), encouraging the child (46.7%), bringing the child back later (26.7%), offering powder for oral suspension (POS) for azithromycin (13.3%), and having parents or community members intervene to calm the child (6.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Coadministration of NTD drugs during PC appears to be increasingly common. Safety of coadministered PC drugs requires attention to choking prevention, use of approved drug combinations, and increased access to age-appropriate drug formulations.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in eliminating trachoma as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. METHODS: We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. RESULTS: We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is <1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is >1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. CONCLUSIONS: If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. METHODS: We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. RESULTS: We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. CONCLUSION: If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.

The Importance of Failure: How Doing Impact Surveys That Fail Saves Trachoma Programs Money.

Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them.

Projected benefits from integrating NTD programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

The integration of preventive chemotherapy programs (PCPs) targeting multiple neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with similar strategic approaches offers opportunities for enhanced cost-effectiveness. To estimate the potential cost savings and health outcomes of integrated programs, the data available for five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, intestinal helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and trachoma) can be used to define eligible target populations, the probable overlap of at-risk populations, and the cost per person treated in stand-alone and integrated programs. If all targets for 2006 in sub-Saharan Africa are met, then savings of 26-47% can be projected from such integration (a cost of US dollar 58-81 million versus dollar 110 million for stand-alone PCPs). These first estimates can be refined as empirical data become available from integrated PCPs in the future.

The health and economic benefits of the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (2000-2014).

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), also known as elephantiasis, is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for elimination through a Global Programme to Eliminate LF (GPELF). Between 2000 and 2014, the GPELF has delivered 5.6 billion treatments to over 763 million people. Updating the estimated health and economic benefits of this significant achievement is important in justifying the resources and investment needed for eliminating LF. METHOD: We combined previously established models to estimate the number of clinical manifestations and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from three benefit cohorts (those protected from acquiring infection, those with subclinical morbidity prevented from progressing and those with clinical disease alleviated). The economic savings associated with this disease prevention was then analysed in the context of prevented medical expenses incurred by LF clinical patients, potential income loss through lost-labour, and prevented costs to the health system to care for affected individuals. The indirect cost estimates were calculated using the human capital approach. A combination of four wage sources was used to estimate the fair market value of time for an agricultural worker with LF infection (to ensure a conservative estimate, the lowest wage value was used). RESULTS: We projected that due to the first 15 years of the GPELF 36 million clinical cases and 175 (116-250) million DALYs will potentially be averted. It was estimated that due to this notable health impact, US$100.5 billion will potentially be saved over the lifetimes of the benefit cohorts. This total amount results from summing the medical expenses incurred by LF patients (US$3 billion), potential income loss (US$94 billion), and costs to the health system (US$3.5 billion) that were projected to be prevented. The results were subjected to sensitivity analysis and were most sensitive to the assumed percentage of work hours lost for those suffering from chronic disease (changing the total economic benefit between US$69.30-150.7 billion). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitations of any such analysis, this study identifies substantial health and economic benefits that have resulted from the first 15 years of the GPELF, and it highlights the value and importance of continued investment in the GPELF.

Assessing progress in reducing the at-risk population after 13 years of the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis.

BACKGROUND: In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000-during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries-it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal.

The effects of integration on financing and coverage of neglected tropical disease programs.

When the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began to support national programs integrating their neglected tropical disease (NTD) program activities, the expected impact on individual disease-specific programs was unclear, particularly with respect to program financing and coverage. To assess this impact, data were collected by NTD program managers and their non-governmental organization (NGO) partners in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Uganda from 2 years prior and 2 years after their individual programs received funding for an integrated NTD program. Findings show that these countries experienced some increases in overall funding available for integrated NTD programs, an expansion of geographical coverage and of the number of persons treated, and the addition of treatments targeted at new diseases. What is not clear is whether these achievements can be sustained if there are decreases in external support in the future. Seeking increased government commitment or sustained external donor support should be a top priority.

The geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa.

BACKGROUND: There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa. METHODS: Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class. RESULTS: At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic. CONCLUSION: The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control.

The economic benefits resulting from the first 8 years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (2000-2007).

BACKGROUND: Between 2000-2007, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) delivered more than 1.9 billion treatments to nearly 600 million individuals via annual mass drug administration (MDA) of anti-filarial drugs (albendazole, ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine) to all at-risk for 4-6 years. Quantifying the resulting economic benefits of this significant achievement is important not only to justify the resources invested in the GPELF but also to more fully understand the Programme's overall impact on some of the poorest endemic populations. METHODOLOGY: To calculate the economic benefits, the number of clinical manifestations averted was first quantified and the savings associated with this disease prevention then analyzed in the context of direct treatment costs, indirect costs of lost-labor, and costs to the health system to care for affected individuals. Multiple data sources were reviewed, including published literature and databases from the World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and International Labour Organization PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An estimated US$21.8 billion of direct economic benefits will be gained over the lifetime of 31.4 million individuals treated during the first 8 years of the GPELF. Of this total, over US$2.3 billion is realized by the protection of nearly 3 million newborns and other individuals from acquiring lymphatic filariasis as a result of their being born into areas freed of LF transmission. Similarly, more than 28 million individuals already infected with LF benefit from GPELF's halting the progression of their disease, which results in an associated lifetime economic benefit of approximately US$19.5 billion. In addition to these economic benefits to at-risk individuals, decreased patient services associated with reduced LF morbidity saves the health systems of endemic countries approximately US$2.2 billion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: MDA for LF offers significant economic benefits. Moreover, with favorable program implementation costs (largely a result of the sustained commitments of donated drugs from the pharmaceutical industry) it is clear that the economic rate of return of the GPELF is extremely high and that this Programme continues to prove itself an excellent investment in global health.

The global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis: health impact after 8 years.

BACKGROUND: In its first 8 years, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) achieved an unprecedentedly rapid scale-up: >1.9 billion treatments with anti-filarial drugs (albendazole, ivermectin, and diethylcarbamazine) were provided via yearly mass drug administration (MDA) to a minimum of 570 million individuals living in 48 of the 83 initially identified LF-endemic countries. METHODOLOGY: To assess the health impact that this massive global effort has had, we analyzed the benefits accrued first from preventing or stopping the progression of LF disease, and then from the broader anti-parasite effects ('beyond-LF' benefits) attributable to the use of albendazole and ivermectin. Projections were based on demographic and disease prevalence data from publications of the Population Reference Bureau, The World Bank, and the World Health Organization. RESULT: Between 2000 and 2007, the GPELF prevented LF disease in an estimated 6.6 million newborns who would otherwise have acquired LF, thus averting in their lifetimes nearly 1.4 million cases of hydrocele, 800,000 cases of lymphedema and 4.4 million cases of subclinical disease. Similarly, 9.5 million individuals--previously infected but without overt manifestations of disease--were protected from developing hydrocele (6.0 million) or lymphedema (3.5 million). These LF-related benefits, by themselves, translate into 32 million DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) averted. Ancillary, 'beyond-LF' benefits from the >1.9 billion treatments delivered by the GPELF were also enormous, especially because of the >310 million treatments to the children and women of childbearing age who received albendazole with/without ivermectin (effectively treating intestinal helminths, onchocerciasis, lice, scabies, and other conditions). These benefits can be described but remain difficult to quantify, largely because of the poorly defined epidemiology of these latter infections. CONCLUSION: The GPELF has earlier been described as a 'best buy' in global health; this present tally of attributable health benefits from its first 8 years strengthens this notion considerably.