Simvastatin in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of simvastatin in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: In an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated simvastatin (80 mg daily) as compared with no statin (control) in critically ill patients with Covid-19 who were not receiving statins at baseline. The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, assessed on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of -1) and days free of organ support through day 21 in survivors; the analyis used a Bayesian hierarchical ordinal model. The adaptive design included prespecified statistical stopping criteria for superiority (>99% posterior probability that the odds ratio was >1) and futility (>95% posterior probability that the odds ratio was <1.2). RESULTS: Enrollment began on October 28, 2020. On January 8, 2023, enrollment was closed on the basis of a low anticipated likelihood that prespecified stopping criteria would be met as Covid-19 cases decreased. The final analysis included 2684 critically ill patients. The median number of organ support-free days was 11 (interquartile range, -1 to 17) in the simvastatin group and 7 (interquartile range, -1 to 16) in the control group; the posterior median adjusted odds ratio was 1.15 (95% credible interval, 0.98 to 1.34) for simvastatin as compared with control, yielding a 95.9% posterior probability of superiority. At 90 days, the hazard ratio for survival was 1.12 (95% credible interval, 0.95 to 1.32), yielding a 91.9% posterior probability of superiority of simvastatin. The results of secondary analyses were consistent with those of the primary analysis. Serious adverse events, such as elevated levels of liver enzymes and creatine kinase, were reported more frequently with simvastatin than with control. CONCLUSIONS: Although recruitment was stopped because cases had decreased, among critically ill patients with Covid-19, simvastatin did not meet the prespecified criteria for superiority to control. (REMAP-CAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02735707.).

Non-COVID-19 intensive care admissions during the pandemic: a multinational registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a large number of critical care admissions. While national reports have described the outcomes of patients with COVID-19, there is limited international data of the pandemic impact on non-COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care treatment. METHODS: We conducted an international, retrospective cohort study using 2019 and 2020 data from 11 national clinical quality registries covering 15 countries. Non-COVID-19 admissions in 2020 were compared with all admissions in 2019, prepandemic. The primary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality and standardised mortality ratio (SMR). Analyses were stratified by the country income level(s) of each registry. FINDINGS: Among 1 642 632 non-COVID-19 admissions, there was an increase in ICU mortality between 2019 (9.3%) and 2020 (10.4%), OR=1.15 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.17, p<0.001). Increased mortality was observed in middle-income countries (OR 1.25 95% CI 1.23 to 1.26), while mortality decreased in high-income countries (OR=0.96 95% CI 0.94 to 0.98). Hospital mortality and SMR trends for each registry were consistent with the observed ICU mortality findings. The burden of COVID-19 was highly variable, with COVID-19 ICU patient-days per bed ranging from 0.4 to 81.6 between registries. This alone did not explain the observed non-COVID-19 mortality changes. INTERPRETATION: Increased ICU mortality occurred among non-COVID-19 patients during the pandemic, driven by increased mortality in middle-income countries, while mortality decreased in high-income countries. The causes for this inequity are likely multi-factorial, but healthcare spending, policy pandemic responses, and ICU strain may play significant roles.

National ICU Registries as Enablers of Clinical Research and Quality Improvement.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical quality registries (CQRs) have been implemented worldwide by several medical specialties aiming to generate a better characterization of epidemiology, treatments, and outcomes of patients. National ICU registries were created almost 3 decades ago to improve the understanding of case-mix, resource use, and outcomes of critically ill patients. This narrative review describes the challenges, proposed solutions, and evidence generated by National ICU registries as facilitators for research and quality improvement. DATA SOURCES: English language articles were identified in PubMed using phrases related to ICU registries, CQRs, outcomes, and case-mix. STUDY SELECTION: Original research, review articles, letters, and commentaries, were considered. DATA EXTRACTION: Data from relevant literature were identified, reviewed, and integrated into a concise narrative review. DATA SYNTHESIS: CQRs have been implemented worldwide by several medical specialties aiming to generate a better characterization of epidemiology, treatments, and outcomes of patients. National ICU registries were created almost 3 decades ago to improve the understanding of case-mix, resource use, and outcomes of critically ill patients. The initial experience in European countries and in Oceania ensured that through locally generated data, ICUs could assess their performances by using risk-adjusted measures and compare their results through fair and validated benchmarking metrics with other ICUs contributing to the CQR. The accomplishment of these initiatives, coupled with the increasing adoption of information technology, resulted in a broad geographic expansion of CQRs as well as their use in quality improvement studies, clinical trials as well as international comparisons, and benchmarking for ICUs. CONCLUSIONS: ICU registries have provided increased knowledge of case-mix and outcomes of ICU patients based on real-world data and contributed to improve care delivery through quality improvement initiatives and trials. Recent increases in adoption of new technologies (i.e., cloud-based structures, artificial intelligence, machine learning) will ensure a broader and better use of data for epidemiology, healthcare policies, quality improvement, and clinical trials.

Days of the week and 90-day mortality after esophagectomy: analysis of 33,980 patients from the National Clinical Database.

PURPOSE: The effect of the days of the week on the short-term outcomes after elective surgeries has been suggested; however, such data on esophagectomies remain limited. This study aimed to investigate the association between the day of the week and mortality rates after elective esophagectomy using a large-scale clinical database in Japan. METHODS: The data of elective esophagectomies, registered in the National Clinical Database in Japan, for esophageal cancer treatment between 2012 and 2017 were analyzed. We hypothesized that the later days of the week could have higher odds ratios of death after elective esophagectomy. With 22 relevant clinical variables and days of surgery, 90-day mortality was evaluated using hierarchical logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Ninety-day mortality rates among 33,980 patients undergoing elective esophagectomy were 1.8% (range, 1.5-2.1%). Surgeries were largely concentrated on earlier days of the week, whereas esophagectomies performed on Fridays accounted for only 11.1% of all cases. Before risk adjustment, lower odds ratios of 90-day mortality were found on Tuesday and a tendency towards lower odds ratios on Thursday. In the hierarchical logistic regression model, 21 independent factors of 90-day mortality were identified. However, the adjusted odds ratios of 90-day mortality for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were 0.87, 1.09, 0.85, and 0.88, respectively, revealing no significant difference. CONCLUSION: The results imply that the variation in 90-day mortality rates after esophagectomy on different days of the week may be attributed to differing preoperative risk factors of the patient group rather than the disparity in medical care provided.

Long-term (180-Day) Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 in the REMAP-CAP Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The longer-term effects of therapies for the treatment of critically ill patients with COVID-19 are unknown. Objective: To determine the effect of multiple interventions for critically ill adults with COVID-19 on longer-term outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prespecified secondary analysis of an ongoing adaptive platform trial (REMAP-CAP) testing interventions within multiple therapeutic domains in which 4869 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 were enrolled between March 9, 2020, and June 22, 2021, from 197 sites in 14 countries. The final 180-day follow-up was completed on March 2, 2022. Interventions: Patients were randomized to receive 1 or more interventions within 6 treatment domains: immune modulators (n = 2274), convalescent plasma (n = 2011), antiplatelet therapy (n = 1557), anticoagulation (n = 1033), antivirals (n = 726), and corticosteroids (n = 401). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was survival through day 180, analyzed using a bayesian piecewise exponential model. A hazard ratio (HR) less than 1 represented improved survival (superiority), while an HR greater than 1 represented worsened survival (harm); futility was represented by a relative improvement less than 20% in outcome, shown by an HR greater than 0.83. Results: Among 4869 randomized patients (mean age, 59.3 years; 1537 [32.1%] women), 4107 (84.3%) had known vital status and 2590 (63.1%) were alive at day 180. IL-6 receptor antagonists had a greater than 99.9% probability of improving 6-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.74 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.61-0.90]) and antiplatelet agents had a 95% probability of improving 6-month survival (adjusted HR, 0.85 [95% CrI, 0.71-1.03]) compared with the control, while the probability of trial-defined statistical futility (HR >0.83) was high for therapeutic anticoagulation (99.9%; HR, 1.13 [95% CrI, 0.93-1.42]), convalescent plasma (99.2%; HR, 0.99 [95% CrI, 0.86-1.14]), and lopinavir-ritonavir (96.6%; HR, 1.06 [95% CrI, 0.82-1.38]) and the probabilities of harm from hydroxychloroquine (96.9%; HR, 1.51 [95% CrI, 0.98-2.29]) and the combination of lopinavir-ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine (96.8%; HR, 1.61 [95% CrI, 0.97-2.67]) were high. The corticosteroid domain was stopped early prior to reaching a predefined statistical trigger; there was a 57.1% to 61.6% probability of improving 6-month survival across varying hydrocortisone dosing strategies. Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill patients with COVID-19 randomized to receive 1 or more therapeutic interventions, treatment with an IL-6 receptor antagonist had a greater than 99.9% probability of improved 180-day mortality compared with patients randomized to the control, and treatment with an antiplatelet had a 95.0% probability of improved 180-day mortality compared with patients randomized to the control. Overall, when considered with previously reported short-term results, the findings indicate that initial in-hospital treatment effects were consistent for most therapies through 6 months.

Assessment of coding-based frailty algorithms for long-term outcome prediction among older people in community settings: a cohort study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the applicability of Electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) algorithms to Japanese administrative claims data and to evaluate their association with long-term outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort study using a regional government administrative healthcare and long-term care (LTC) claims database in Japan 2014-18. PARTICIPANTS: Plan enrollees aged ≥50 years. METHODS: We applied the two algorithms to the cohort and assessed the scores' distributions alongside enrollees' 4-year mortality and initiation of government-supported LTC. Using Cox regression and Fine-Gray models, we evaluated the association between frailty scores and outcomes as well as the models' discriminatory ability. RESULTS: Among 827,744 enrollees, 42.8% were categorised by eFI as fit, 31.2% mild, 17.5% moderate and 8.5% severe. For HFRS, 73.0% were low, 24.3% intermediate and 2.7% high risk; 35 of 36 predictors for eFI, and 92 of 109 codes originally used for HFRS were available in the Japanese system. Relative to the lowest frailty group, the highest frailty group had hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 2.09 (1.98-2.21) for mortality and 2.45 (2.28-2.63) for LTC for eFI; those for HFRS were 3.79 (3.56-4.03) and 3.31 (2.87-3.82), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for the unadjusted model at 48 months was 0.68 for death and 0.68 for LTC for eFI, and 0.73 and 0.70, respectively, for HFRS. CONCLUSIONS: The frailty algorithms were applicable to the Japanese system and could contribute to the identifications of enrollees at risk of long-term mortality or LTC use.

Male sex and presence of preoperative symptoms are associated with early recurrence of WHO grade I meningiomas after surgical resection: analysis from the nationwide Brain Tumor Registry of Japan.

This study aimed to assess the risk factors for the recurrence of WHO grade I intracranial meningiomas using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTRJ) database. We extracted the data of 4641 patients with intracranial WHO grade I meningiomas treated only by surgical resection between 2001 and 2008. We conducted complete data analysis (n = 3690) and multiple imputation analysis (n = 4641) to adjust for missing data on tumor size. The influence of factors including age, sex, size, extent of resection, location, and preoperative symptoms on PFS was assessed. Univariate analyses of the complete data set showed that age did not affect PFS; however, male sex (p < 0.001), tumor size ≥ 30 mm (p < 0.001), low extent of resection, tumor location at the skull base (p < 0.001), and the presence of preoperative symptoms (p < 0.001) were risk factors for a significantly shorter PFS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that male sex (p < 0.001) and presence of preoperative symptoms (p = 0.027) were independent risk factors for shorter PFS alongside large tumor size (p < 0.001) and non-gross total resection (p < 0.001). These results were confirmed for the imputed dataset. While most previous large nationwide studies of meningiomas have evaluated overall survival, progression-free survival has yet to be thoroughly examined. This study suggests that even histologically benign meningiomas may have a sex difference in postoperative behavior. This observation may provide clues to understanding the mechanism of meningioma cell proliferation.

Effect of Antiplatelet Therapy on Survival and Organ Support-Free Days in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The efficacy of antiplatelet therapy in critically ill patients with COVID-19 is uncertain. Objective: To determine whether antiplatelet therapy improves outcomes for critically ill adults with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: In an ongoing adaptive platform trial (REMAP-CAP) testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, 1557 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 were enrolled between October 30, 2020, and June 23, 2021, from 105 sites in 8 countries and followed up for 90 days (final follow-up date: July 26, 2021). Interventions: Patients were randomized to receive either open-label aspirin (n = 565), a P2Y12 inhibitor (n = 455), or no antiplatelet therapy (control; n = 529). Interventions were continued in the hospital for a maximum of 14 days and were in addition to anticoagulation thromboprophylaxis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of intensive care unit-based respiratory or cardiovascular organ support) within 21 days, ranging from -1 for any death in hospital (censored at 90 days) to 22 for survivors with no organ support. There were 13 secondary outcomes, including survival to discharge and major bleeding to 14 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. An odds ratio (OR) greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. Efficacy was defined as greater than 99% posterior probability of an OR greater than 1. Futility was defined as greater than 95% posterior probability of an OR less than 1.2 vs control. Intervention equivalence was defined as greater than 90% probability that the OR (compared with each other) was between 1/1.2 and 1.2 for 2 noncontrol interventions. Results: The aspirin and P2Y12 inhibitor groups met the predefined criteria for equivalence at an adaptive analysis and were statistically pooled for further analysis. Enrollment was discontinued after the prespecified criterion for futility was met for the pooled antiplatelet group compared with control. Among the 1557 critically ill patients randomized, 8 patients withdrew consent and 1549 completed the trial (median age, 57 years; 521 [33.6%] female). The median for organ support-free days was 7 (IQR, -1 to 16) in both the antiplatelet and control groups (median-adjusted OR, 1.02 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.86-1.23]; 95.7% posterior probability of futility). The proportions of patients surviving to hospital discharge were 71.5% (723/1011) and 67.9% (354/521) in the antiplatelet and control groups, respectively (median-adjusted OR, 1.27 [95% CrI, 0.99-1.62]; adjusted absolute difference, 5% [95% CrI, -0.2% to 9.5%]; 97% posterior probability of efficacy). Among survivors, the median for organ support-free days was 14 in both groups. Major bleeding occurred in 2.1% and 0.4% of patients in the antiplatelet and control groups (adjusted OR, 2.97 [95% CrI, 1.23-8.28]; adjusted absolute risk increase, 0.8% [95% CrI, 0.1%-2.7%]; 99.4% probability of harm). Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill patients with COVID-19, treatment with an antiplatelet agent, compared with no antiplatelet agent, had a low likelihood of providing improvement in the number of organ support-free days within 21 days. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

Long-term prognosis and clinical course of choking-induced cardiac arrest in patients without the return of spontaneous circulation at hospital arrival: a population-based community study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database.

BACKGROUND: The risk of choking increases with aging, and the number of cases of choking-induced cardiac arrest is increasing. However, few studies have examined the prognosis of choking-induced cardiac arrest. The aim of this study was to reveal the rates of survival and dependence on devices in the long term after choking-induced cardiac arrest. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database, which consists of claims data of approximately 2.2 million people, from April 2012 to September 2018. We selected patients with choking-induced cardiac arrest who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital. Patients were excluded if they were less than 20 years old, had an upper airway tumor, received ventilation assistance, or received enteral nutrition in the month prior to cardiac arrest. The primary outcome was death, and the secondary outcomes were the rates of survival at 3-months and independence on devices. Descriptive statistics are presented and compared among age groups (20-64 years, 65-74 years, 75-84 years, 85 years and older), and survival time analysis (Kaplan-Meier method) was performed. RESULTS: In total, 268 patients were analyzed, including 26 patients in the 20-64 age group, 33 patients in the 65-74 age group, 70 patients in the 75-84 age group, and 139 patients in the ≥85 age group. The overall 3-month survival rate was 5.6% (15/268). The 3-month survival rates were 3.8% (1/26) in the 20-64 age group, 15.2% (5/33) in the 65-74 age group, 8.6% (6/70) in the 75-84 age group, and 2.2% (3/139) in the ≥85 age group. The overall 12-month survival rate was 2.6% (7/268). Of the 7 patients who survived for 12 months, 3 received ventilation management and 5 received tube or intravenous feedings at 3 months. These survivors were still receiving ventilation assistance and tube feedings in the hospital and had not been discharged at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of choking-induced cardiac arrest was extremely poor when patients were not resuscitated before hospital arrival. Those who survived were mostly dependent on assistive devices. Additionally, none of the survivors dependent on assistive devices had discontinued the use of the devices at the long-term follow-up.

Visualisation of the non-linear correlation between age and poor outcome in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To visualise the non-linear correlation between age and poor outcome at discharge in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) while adjusting for covariates, and to address the heterogeneity of this correlation depending on disease severity by a registry-based design. METHODS: We extracted data from the Japanese Stroke Databank registry for patients with SAH treated via surgical clipping or endovascular coiling within 3 days of SAH onset between 2000 and 2017. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale Score ≥3 at discharge. Variable importance was calculated using machine learning (random forest) model. Correlations between age and poor outcome while adjusting for covariates were determined using generalised additive models in which spline-transformed age was fit to each neurological grade of World Federation of Neurological Societies (WFNS) and treatment. RESULTS: In total, 4149 patients were included in the analysis. WFNS grade and age had the largest and second largest variable importance in predicting the outcome. The non-linear correlation between age and poor outcome was visualised after adjusting for other covariates. For grades I-III, the risk slope for unit age was relatively smaller at younger ages and larger at older ages; for grade IV, the slope was steep even in younger ages; while for grade V, it was relatively smooth, but with high risk even at younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: The clear visualisation of the non-linear correlation between age and poor outcome in this study can aid clinical decision making and help inform patients with aneurysmal SAH and their families better.

Effect of adjuvant radiotherapy after subtotal resection for WHO grade I meningioma: a propensity score matching analysis of the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to improve the understanding of the role of adjuvant radiotherapy (AR) after subtotal resection (STR) of World Health Organization (WHO) grade I meningiomas. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan database. Among 7341 patients diagnosed with intracranial meningioma during 2001-2008, we identified 406 patients with WHO grade I meningioma treated with STR as initial treatment. Data on progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed for their relevance to clinical factors including age, sex, tumor location and size, presence of preoperative symptoms, and AR. RESULTS: AR was administered for 73 patients (18.0%). Regrowth occurred in 90 cases (22.2%) during the median follow-up period of 6.0 years (interquartile range, 2.7-7.7 years). Multivariate Cox regression analysis of the entire cohort showed that no AR was associated with significantly shorter PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-5.42, p = 0.004). The therapeutic effect of AR was confirmed for skull base, but not non-skull base, meningiomas (p = 0.003 and 0.69, respectively). Propensity score matching analysis balanced the influence of confounding factors to generate AR+ and AR- cohorts of 73 patients each. PFS was significantly longer in the AR+ cohort than in the AR- cohort (HR 3.46, 95% CI 1.53-8.59, p = 0.003). Subgroup analysis demonstrated the favorable effect of AR only for skull base meningiomas. CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed that AR improves tumor control after STR in WHO grade I meningiomas. However, this beneficial effect might be limited to skull base meningiomas.

Real-World Evidence of the Incidence of and Risk Factors for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus and Hypothyroidism as Immune-Related Adverse Events Associated With Programmed Cell Death-1 Inhibitors.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and hypothyroidism as immune-related adverse events (irAEs) after programmed cell death-1 inhibitor (PD-1i) administration has not yet been sufficiently evaluated in a real clinical setting. To assess the incidence of T1DM and hypothyroidism among PD-1is and to identify the risk factors associated with hypothyroidism using a large claims database. METHODS: This cohort study used the Shizuoka Kokuho database in Japan from 2012 to 2018, including approximately 2.2 million people. We enrolled 695 PD-1i-treated patients. T1DM and hypothyroidism as irAEs were identified using International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification codes. Risk factors for hypothyroidism were explored using the multivariable Fine and Gray regression model after adjusting for age group and sex, treating death as a competing risk. RESULTS: The cumulative incidences of T1DM and hypothyroidism were 0.3% and 8.3%, respectively. We described the detailed onset timing of irAEs in patients with T1DM and hypothyroidism; hypothyroidism was observed evenly within 1 year of the PD-1i prescription. Sex and certain cancer types, such as lung and urothelial cancers, were significantly associated with subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) (female: sHR, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.20-3.47]; lung cancer: sHR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.32-0.95]; and urothelial carcinoma: sHR, 2.40 [95% CI, 1.05-5.49]). CONCLUSION: The incidence of T1DM and hypothyroidism as irAEs and associated risk factors identified in this analysis were comparable to those found in previous studies. The use of a large claims database to detect irAEs, such as T1DM and hypothyroidism, may lead to safer use of PD-1is.

Analysis of the relationship between the HbA1c screening results and the development and worsening of diabetes among adults aged over 40 years: a 4-year follow-up study of 140,000 people in Japan - the Shizuoka study.

BACKGROUND: Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels are routinely measured during health check-ups and are used as an indicator of glycemic control in Japan. However, only a few studies have followed up individuals to assess the risk of diabetes development and worsening based on HbA1c screening results. This study evaluated the relationship between HbA1c screening results and the risk of diabetes development and worsening. METHODS: Data were collected from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database, a Japanese administrative claims database of insured individuals aged > 40 years. We included individuals available for follow-up from April 2012 to March 2018 who had not received any diabetes treatment before March 2014. HbA1c screening results were categorized into 4 groups based on the HbA1c levels at the 2012 and 2013 health check-ups: group A, those whose HbA1c levels were < 6.5% in 2012 and 2013; group B, those whose HbA1c levels > 6.5% in 2012 but < 6.5% in 2013; group C, those whose HbA1c levels were > 6.5% in 2012 and 2013; and group D, those whose HbA1c levels were < 6.5% in 2012 and > 6.5% in 2013. Logistic regression models were used to analyze diabetes development and worsening, defined as the initiation of diabetes treatment by March 2018 and the use of injection drugs by participants who initiated diabetes treatment by March 2018. RESULTS: Overall, 137,852 individuals were analyzed. After adjusting for covariates, compared with group A, group B was more likely to initiate treatment within 4 years (odds ratio: 22.64; 95% confidence interval: 14.66-34.99). In patients who initiated diabetes treatment by March 2018, injection drugs were less likely used by group D than by group A (odds ratio: 0.28; 95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that although HbA1c levels measured during health check-ups were correlated with the risk of diabetes development and worsening, HbA1c levels in a single year may not necessarily provide sufficient information to consider these future risks.

Effect of Convalescent Plasma on Organ Support-Free Days in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The evidence for benefit of convalescent plasma for critically ill patients with COVID-19 is inconclusive. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether convalescent plasma would improve outcomes for critically ill adults with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The ongoing Randomized, Embedded, Multifactorial, Adaptive Platform Trial for Community-Acquired Pneumonia (REMAP-CAP) enrolled and randomized 4763 adults with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 between March 9, 2020, and January 18, 2021, within at least 1 domain; 2011 critically ill adults were randomized to open-label interventions in the immunoglobulin domain at 129 sites in 4 countries. Follow-up ended on April 19, 2021. INTERVENTIONS: The immunoglobulin domain randomized participants to receive 2 units of high-titer, ABO-compatible convalescent plasma (total volume of 550 mL ± 150 mL) within 48 hours of randomization (n = 1084) or no convalescent plasma (n = 916). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary ordinal end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of intensive care unit-based organ support) up to day 21 (range, -1 to 21 days; patients who died were assigned -1 day). The primary analysis was an adjusted bayesian cumulative logistic model. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio (OR) greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Futility was defined as the posterior probability of an OR less than 1.2 (threshold for trial conclusion of futility >95%). An OR greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. The prespecified secondary outcomes included in-hospital survival; 28-day survival; 90-day survival; respiratory support-free days; cardiovascular support-free days; progression to invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal mechanical oxygenation, or death; intensive care unit length of stay; hospital length of stay; World Health Organization ordinal scale score at day 14; venous thromboembolic events at 90 days; and serious adverse events. RESULTS: Among the 2011 participants who were randomized (median age, 61 [IQR, 52 to 70] years and 645/1998 [32.3%] women), 1990 (99%) completed the trial. The convalescent plasma intervention was stopped after the prespecified criterion for futility was met. The median number of organ support-free days was 0 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the convalescent plasma group and 3 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the no convalescent plasma group. The in-hospital mortality rate was 37.3% (401/1075) for the convalescent plasma group and 38.4% (347/904) for the no convalescent plasma group and the median number of days alive and free of organ support was 14 (IQR, 3 to 18) and 14 (IQR, 7 to 18), respectively. The median-adjusted OR was 0.97 (95% credible interval, 0.83 to 1.15) and the posterior probability of futility (OR <1.2) was 99.4% for the convalescent plasma group compared with the no convalescent plasma group. The treatment effects were consistent across the primary outcome and the 11 secondary outcomes. Serious adverse events were reported in 3.0% (32/1075) of participants in the convalescent plasma group and in 1.3% (12/905) of participants in the no convalescent plasma group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among critically ill adults with confirmed COVID-19, treatment with 2 units of high-titer, ABO-compatible convalescent plasma had a low likelihood of providing improvement in the number of organ support-free days. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

Performance of a deep learning-based identification system for esophageal cancer from CT images.

BACKGROUND: Because cancers of hollow organs such as the esophagus are hard to detect even by the expert physician, it is important to establish diagnostic systems to support physicians and increase the accuracy of diagnosis. In recent years, deep learning-based artificial intelligence (AI) technology has been employed for medical image recognition. However, no optimal CT diagnostic system employing deep learning technology has been attempted and established for esophageal cancer so far. PURPOSE: To establish an AI-based diagnostic system for esophageal cancer from CT images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, 457 patients with primary esophageal cancer referred to our division between 2005 and 2018 were enrolled. We fine-tuned VGG16, an image recognition model of deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN), for the detection of esophageal cancer. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the CNN using a test data set including 46 cancerous CT images and 100 non-cancerous images and compared it to that of two radiologists. RESULTS: Pre-treatment esophageal cancer stages of the patients included in the test data set were clinical T1 (12 patients), clinical T2 (9 patients), clinical T3 (20 patients), and clinical T4 (5 patients). The CNN-based system showed a diagnostic accuracy of 84.2%, F value of 0.742, sensitivity of 71.7%, and specificity of 90.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Our AI-based diagnostic system succeeded in detecting esophageal cancer with high accuracy. More training with vast datasets collected from multiples centers would lead to even higher diagnostic accuracy and aid better decision making.

How Much More Efficient Are Adaptive Platform Trials Than Multiple Stand-Alone Trials? A Comprehensive Simulation Study for Streamlining Drug Development During a Pandemic.

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is growing interest in utilizing adaptive platform clinical trials (APTs), in which multiple drugs are compared with a single common control group, such as a placebo or standard-of-care group. APTs evaluate several drugs for one disease and accept additions or exclusions of drugs as the trials progress; however, little is known about the efficiency of APTs over multiple stand-alone trials. In this study, we simulated the total development period, total sample size, and statistical operating characteristics of APTs and multiple stand-alone trials in drug development settings for hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Simulation studies using selected scenarios reconfirmed several findings regarding the efficiency of APTs. The APTs without staggered addition of drugs showed a shorter total development period than stand-alone trials, but the difference rapidly diminished if patient's enrollment was accelerated during the trials owing to the spread of infection. APTs with staggered addition of drugs still have the possibility of reducing the total development period compared with multiple stand-alone trials in some cases. Our study demonstrated that APTs could improve efficiency relative to multiple stand-alone trials regarding the total development period and total sample size without undermining statistical validity; however, this improvement varies depending on the speed of patient enrollment, sample size, presence/absence of family-wise error rate adjustment, allocation ratio between drug and placebo groups, and interval of staggered addition of drugs. Given the complexity of planning and implementing APT, the decision to implement APT during a pandemic must be made carefully.

Recalibration of prediction model was needed for monitoring health care quality in subgroups: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the predictive ability of a mortality prediction model in subgroups of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and test the validity for monitoring the outcome. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A Japanese ICU database was used for the analyses. Adults admitted to an ICU between April 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020, were included. Nine clinically relevant subgroups were selected, and we evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the Japan Risk of Death model, a recalibrated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III-j model. Funnel plots and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts were used to check its validity for monitoring in-hospital mortality. If the predictive performance was poor, the model was recalibrated and model performance was reassessed. RESULTS: The study population comprised 14,513 patients across nine subgroups. The in-hospital mortality rate ranged from 11.3% to 30.9%. The calibration was poor in most subgroups, and the funnel plots and EWMA charts frequently revealed "out-of-control" signals crossing the control limit of three standard deviations (SDs). The calibration improved after recalibration, and the number of "out-of-control" signals decreased. CONCLUSION: When monitoring the quality of care among subgroups of patients, testing the predictive ability and recalibration of the risk model are needed.

Achieving clinically optimal balance between accuracy and simplicity of a formula for manual use: Development of a simple formula for estimating liver graft weight with donor anthropometrics.

In developing a formula for manual use in clinical settings, simplicity is as important as accuracy. Whole-liver (WL) mass is often estimated using demographic and anthropometric information to calculate the standard liver volume or recommended graft volume in liver transplantation. Multiple formulas for estimating WL mass have been reported, including those with multiple independent variables. However, it is unknown whether multivariable models lead to clinically meaningful improvements in accuracy over univariable models. Our goal was to quantitatively define clinically meaningful improvements in accuracy, which justifies an additional independent variable, and to identify an estimation formula for WL graft weight that best balances accuracy and simplicity given the criterion. From the Japanese Liver Transplantation Society registry, which contains data on all liver transplant cases in Japan, 129 WL donor-graft pairs were extracted. Among the candidate models, those with the smallest cross-validation (CV) root-mean-square error (RMSE) were selected, penalizing model complexity by requiring more complex models to yield a ≥5% decrease in CV RMSE. The winning model by voting with random subsets was fitted to the entire dataset to obtain the final formula. External validity was assessed using CV. A simple univariable linear regression formula using body weight (BW) was obtained as follows: WL graft weight [g] = 14.8 × BW [kg] + 439.2. The CV RMSE (g) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 195.2 and 0.548, respectively. In summary, in the development of a simple formula for manually estimating WL weight using demographic and anthropometric variables, a clinically acceptable trade-off between accuracy and simplicity was quantitatively defined, and the best model was selected using this criterion. A univariable linear model using BW achieved a clinically optimal balance between simplicity and accuracy, while one using body surface area performed similarly.

Frailty and subsequent adverse outcomes in older patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: The Shizuoka study.

Background: In older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), frailty is frequently prevalent. However, the prognostic value of frailty for adverse events after initiation of oral anticoagulants (OACs) is unclear. Objectives: We assessed whether frailty at the time of OAC initiation is associated with subsequent bleeding or embolic events. Methods: We extracted patients aged ≥65 years with nonvalvular AF in whom OACs were initiated from a universal administrative claims database incorporating primary and hospital care records in Shizuoka, Japan, between 2012 and 2018. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (eFI). The association of frailty with bleeding events and ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack were evaluated using the Fine-Gray model and restricted cubic spline model. Results: Among 12,585 patients with AF, 7.8% were categorized as fit, 31.5% as mildly frail, 34.8% as moderately frail, and 25.9% as severely frail. The risk of bleeding was associated with a higher eFI (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [95% CI] for fit or mild frailty: 1.15 [1.02-1.30]; moderate frailty: 1.42 [1.24-1.61]; and severe frailty: 1.86 [1.61-2.15]), whereas the association was weaker for ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack. The spline models demonstrated that the relative hazard for bleeding increased steeply with increasing eFI. Conclusion: Patients with frailty in whom OAC therapy is initiated have higher risk of bleeding, highlighting the importance of discussing this increased risk with patients with AF who have frailty and assessing frailty at the time of OAC initiation.