Climate change, wine, and conservation.

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Curbing the major and growing threats from invasive alien species is urgent and achievable.

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.

Gall volatiles defend aphids against a browsing mammal.

BACKGROUND: Plants have evolved an astonishing array of survival strategies. To defend against insects, for example, damaged plants emit volatile organic compounds that attract the herbivore's natural enemies. So far, plant volatile responses have been studied extensively in conjunction with leaf chewing and sap sucking insects, yet little is known about the relationship between plant volatiles and gall-inducers, the most sophisticated herbivores. Here we describe a new role for volatiles as gall-insects were found to benefit from this plant defence. RESULTS: Chemical analyses of galls triggered by the gregarious aphid Slavum wertheimae on wild pistachio trees showed that these structures contained and emitted considerably higher quantities of plant terpenes than neighbouring leaves and fruits. Behavioural assays using goats as a generalist herbivore confirmed that the accumulated terpenes acted as olfactory signals and feeding deterrents, thus enabling the gall-inducers to escape from inadvertent predation by mammals. CONCLUSIONS: Increased emission of plant volatiles in response to insect activity is commonly looked upon as a "cry for help" by the plant to attract the insect's natural enemies. In contrast, we show that such volatiles can serve as a first line of insect defences that extends the 'extended phenotype' represented by galls, beyond physical boundaries. Our data support the Enemy hypothesis insofar that high levels of gall secondary metabolites confer protection against natural enemies.

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28-1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11-18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion-contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.

Insecticide Residues Associated with Apple Orchard Treatments in the Mason Bee, Osmia cornifrons, and their Nests.

Declines in bee populations, in part due to pesticides, especially insecticides, are of global concern. Although most studies have investigated insecticide residues in honeybees and bumblebees, few have focused on non-Apis solitary bees, which are considered essential pollinators in the field. Most non-Apis bees are solitary and build their nests in the ground or in tree holes, therefore insecticide exposure pathways would differ from those of honeybees and bumblebees. We analyzed the residues of 20 insecticides in Osmia cornifrons bees and their pollen-provisions and nesting materials, along with adult honeybees, soil, and wildflowers collected in four apple orchards in two regions in Japan. Few insecticides were common among adult bees, pollen-provisions, and wildflowers. Insecticides applied in orchards were detected at high frequency: chlorantraniliprole, flubendiamide, and diazinon were detected in almost all samples. Insecticides without a known history of application were detected from various samples at frequencies ranging from 0% to 100%. Even in orchards without a known history of insecticide application, clothianidin was detected in many sample types and at high concentration. A purple deadnettle sample had the highest concentration at 17.5 mg/kg. These results highlight the complexity of pathways of insecticide exposure to O. cornifrons in the environment because insecticides may remain in the environment for long periods and wild bees may forage farther than previously known distances. Furthermore, each sample type contained different insecticides, so wild bees may have been exposed to different insecticides at different life stages. Future research should prioritize wide-scale measurements of insecticide residues in field conditions and toxicity testing with multiple exposures at different life stages of target species. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1564-1574. © 2023 SETAC.

Acute toxicity data of common agricultural insecticides to Japanese wild bees.

Although numerous ecotoxicological assessments of European honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) have been performed, Japanese wild bees are less well studied in this regard. To address this knowledge gap, we assessed the mortality and acute toxicity (LD50) of 3 common agricultural insecticides (clothianidin, fipronil, and diazinon) on as many as 6 species of Japanese wild bees (Andrena prostomias Perez, Apis cerana japonica Radoszkowski, Bombus deuteronymus Perez, Bombus honshuensis Tkalcu, Bombus hypocrita Perez, and Eucera spp.; all or any of them). The datasets were obtained via standard acute toxicity testing, with assessment of mortality at 24 and 48 h after exposure to the insecticides. These data provide important information regarding the effects of insecticides on Japanese wild bees and their conservation.

Comprehensive analyses of agrochemicals affecting aquatic ecosystems: A case study of Odonata communities and macrophytes in Saga Plain, northern Kyushu, Japan.

The negative influence of agrochemicals (pesticides: insecticide, fungicide, and herbicide) on biodiversity is a major ecological concern. In recent decades, many insect species are reported to have rapidly declined worldwide, and pesticides, including neonicotinoids and fipronil, are suspected to be partially responsible. In Japan, application of systemic insecticides to nursery boxes in rice paddies is considered to have caused rapid declines in Sympetrum (Odonata: Libellulidae) and other dragonfly and damselfly populations since the 1990s. In addition to the direct lethal effects of pesticides, agrochemicals indirectly affect Odonata populations through reductions in macrophytes, which provide a habitat, and prey organisms. Due to technical restrictions, most previous studies first selected target chemicals and then analyzed their influence on focal organisms at various levels, from the laboratory to the field. However, in natural and agricultural environments, various chemicals co-occur and can act synergistically. Under such circumstances, targeted analyses might lead to spurious correlations between a target chemical and the abundance of organisms. To address such problems, in this study we adopted a novel technique, "Comprehensive Target Analysis with an Automated Identification and Quantification System (CTA-AIQS)" to detect wide range of agrochemicals in water environment. The relationships between a wide range of pesticides and lentic Odonata communities were surveyed in agricultural and non-agricultural areas in Saga Plain, Kyushu, Japan. We detected significant negative relationships between several insecticides, i.e., acephate, clothianidin, dinotefuran, flubendiamide, pymetrozine, and thiametoxam (marginal for benthic odonates) and the abundance of lentic Epiprocta and benthic Odonates. In contrast, the herbicides we detected were not significantly related to the abundance of aquatic macrophytes, suggesting a lower impact of herbicides on aquatic vegetation at the field level. These results highlight the need for further assessments of the influence of non-neonicotinoid insecticides on aquatic organisms.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Ecological risks of insecticide contamination in water and sediment around off-farm irrigated rice paddy fields.

The ecological impacts of insecticides in aquatic areas around agricultural lands have long been ignored in the regulation scheme of pesticides in Japan. Upon the scheme, the predicted concentration of an insecticide in the main stream of a river is the only parameter considered, suggesting that the ecological impacts of insecticides on local biodiversity around agricultural fields are underestimated. To fill this knowledge gap, we measured insecticide concentrations in surface water and sediment in aquatic areas around paddy fields at 35 locations across Japan. Among the 18 insecticides considered, 15 were detected somewhere in Japan and their concentrations were generally higher in the southwestern region in Japan (e.g. Hiroshima, Saga, or Kagoshima prefectures). Most insecticides were accumulated at higher concentrations in sediment than in surface water, consistent with previous studies. We also detected insecticides applied to nursery boxes at high concentrations in surrounding aquatic areas, although such application is generally considered to have low environmental risks. In addition, derivatives of fipronil, which have similar toxicity as that of fipronil, were often detected in sediment at higher concentrations than fipronil itself. Concentrations of dinotefuran in water at two sampling points were higher than the 5% hazardous concentration (HC5), indicating a possibility of a risk of acute toxicity to aquatic organisms. Our findings indicate that ecological risk assessments of insecticides and their derivatives should be expanded to include concentrations in sediment and water around paddy fields as well.

Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast.

Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.

Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008-16 km(2) ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.

Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.