Previous tuberculosis disease as a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional analysis of multicountry, population-based studies.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for COPD in high-income settings are well understood; however, less attention has been paid to contributors of COPD in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as pulmonary tuberculosis. We sought to study the association between previous tuberculosis disease and COPD by using pooled population-based cross-sectional data in 13 geographically diverse, low-resource settings. METHODS: We pooled six cohorts in 13 different LMIC settings, 6 countries and 3 continents to study the relationship between self-reported previous tuberculosis disease and lung function outcomes including COPD (defined as a postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) below the lower limit of normal). Multivariable regressions with random effects were used to examine the association between previous tuberculosis disease and lung function outcomes. RESULTS: We analysed data for 12 396 participants (median age 54.0 years, 51.5% male); 332 (2.7%) of the participants had previous tuberculosis disease. Overall prevalence of COPD was 8.8% (range 1.7%-15.5% across sites). COPD was four times more common among those with previous tuberculosis disease (25.7% vs 8.3% without previous tuberculosis disease, p<0.001). The adjusted odds of having COPD was 3.78 times higher (95% CI 2.87 to 4.98) for participants with previous tuberculosis disease than those without a history of tuberculosis disease. The attributable fraction of COPD due to previous tuberculosis disease in the study sample was 6.9% (95% CI 4.8% to 9.6%). Participants with previous tuberculosis disease also had lower prebronchodilator Z-scores for FEV1 (-0.70, 95% CI -0.84 to -0.55), FVC (-0.44, 95% CI -0.59 to -0.29) and the FEV1:FVC ratio (-0.63, 95% CI -0.76 to -0.51) when compared with those without previous tuberculosis disease. CONCLUSIONS: Previous tuberculosis disease is a significant and under-recognised risk factor for COPD and poor lung function in LMICs. Better tuberculosis control will also likely reduce the global burden of COPD.

Dietary patterns and blood pressure in Southern Cone of Latin America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: in the Southern Cone of Latin America, previous studies have shown that blood hypertension is one of the most significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease, and diet plays a fundamental role. We analyzed the cross-sectional relationship between dietary patterns (DP) and blood pressure values in people involved in the CESCAS I Study. METHODS AND RESULTS: the participants (n = 4626) were derived from randomly selected samples in 4 cities (Bariloche and Marcos Paz, Argentina; Temuco, Chile; and Pando-Barros Blancos, Uruguay). To define DP, a food-frequency questionnaire was applied and principal component analysis was performed. Blood pressure was determined according to standardized guidelines. A multivariate regression model was developed to determine the association between each DP and blood pressure values, according to the quartile (Q) of adherence to DP. Two predominant DP were detected, Prudent (PDP, higher consumption of fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains, fish, seafood and nuts) and Western (WDP, higher consumption of red and processed meats, dressings, sweets, snacks and refined grains). A significant inverse association was found between adherence to PDP and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (-1.85 and -1.29 mmHg for Q4 vs Q1, respectively). Adherence to WDP was positively associated with systolic blood pressure (2.09 mmHg for Q4 vs Q1). CONCLUSION: the WDP detected in the studied population is positively associated with higher levels of blood pressure, while greater adherence to healthy DP has a positive impact on blood pressure.

Estimating prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the Southern Cone of Latin America: how different spirometric criteria may affect disease burden and health policies.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. The study aimed to determine and compare the prevalence of COPD in the general population aged 45-74 years old according to fixed ratio and lower limit of normal (LLN) thresholds in four cities in the Southern Cone of Latin America. METHODS: The Pulmonary Risk in South America (PRISA) study used a 4-stage stratified sampling method to select 5814 participants from 4 cities in the Southern Cone of Latin America (Bariloche and Marcos Paz, Argentina; Temuco, Chile; and Pando-Barros Blancos, Uruguay). Data on demographic information, medical history, risk factors, pre-bronchodilator and post-bronchodilator spirometry were obtained using a standard protocol. According to GOLD, COPD was defined as a post-bronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) over forced vital capacity (FVC) less than 70%. The LLN threshold was defined as the lower fifth percentile for predicted FEV1/FVC, and was evaluated as an alternative COPD definition. RESULTS: Overall COPD prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI 8.4, 10.2%), and men had a higher prevalence [11.8% (95% CI 10.3, 13.3%)] than women [7.3% (95% CI 6.2, 8.3%)] with the fixed ratio. Overall COPD prevalence using LLN was 4.7% (95% CI 4.1, 5.3%), higher in men: 5.8% (95% CI 4.7, 6.8%) than women: 3.9% (95% CI 3.1, 4.7%). COPD prevalence was significantly higher among those who were older, had

Validation of a self-administered FFQ in adults in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the reproducibility and validity among adults in the Southern Cone of Latin America (Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) of a self-administered FFQ to be used in the CESCAS I Study, an ongoing observational prospective cohort study to detect and follow up CVD and their risk factors, as well as in other epidemiological studies. DESIGN: Relative validity of the FFQ was evaluated by comparing nutrient and selected food group intakes with those from three 24 h recalls (24HR) administered over 6 months. The FFQ was administered at baseline (FFQ1) and again after 3 months (FFQ2). SETTING: Primary-care centres in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. SUBJECTS: Adults (n 147) aged 21-74 years. RESULTS: Reproducibility (FFQ1 v. FFQ2): the intra-class correlation coefficients for nutrients ranged from 0·52 (potassium) to 0·74 (fat). Validity (FFQ1 v. the average of three 24HR): the Pearson correlations for energy-adjusted nutrients ranged from 0·39 (thiamin and cholesterol) to 0·59 (carbohydrate). Joint classification: overall, 66 % of participants in the lowest 24HR quintile were in the lowest one or two FFQ1 quintiles, and 62 % of those in the highest 24HR quintile were in the highest one or two FFQ1 quintiles. On average, only 4 % were misclassified into extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: The FFQ version for the Southern Cone seems to present moderate to acceptable relative validity and reliability for its use in the CESCAS I Study to measure dietary exposure.

Detection and follow-up of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and risk factors in the Southern Cone of Latin America: the pulmonary risk in South America (PRISA) study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has estimated that by 2030, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will be the third leading cause of death worldwide. Most knowledge of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is based on studies performed in Europe or North America and little is known about the prevalence, patient characteristics and change in lung function over time in patients in developing countries, such as those of Latin America. This lack of knowledge is in sharp contrast to the high levels of tobacco consumption and exposure to biomass fuels exhibited in Latin America, both major risk factors for the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Studies have also demonstrated that most Latin American physicians frequently do not follow international chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnostic and treatment guidelines. The PRISA Study will expand the current knowledge regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and risk factors in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay to inform policy makers and health professionals on the best policies and practices to address this condition. METHODS/DESIGN: PRISA is an observational, prospective cohort study with at least four years of follow-up. In the first year, PRISA has employed a randomized three-staged stratified cluster sampling strategy to identify 6,000 subjects from Marcos Paz and Bariloche, Argentina, Temuco, Chile, and Canelones, Uruguay. Information, such as comorbidities, socioeconomic status and tobacco and biomass exposure, will be collected and spirometry, anthropometric measurements, blood sampling and electrocardiogram will be performed. In year four, subjects will have repeat measurements taken. DISCUSSION: There is no longitudinal data on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence and risk factors in the southern cone of Latin America, therefore this population-based prospective cohort study will fill knowledge gaps in the prevalence and incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, patient characteristics and changes in lung function over time as well as quality of life and health care resource utilization. Information gathered during the PRISA Study will inform public health interventions and prevention practices to reduce risk of COPD in the region.

Barriers and Facilitators for the Implementation and Evaluation of Community-Based Interventions to Promote Physical Activity and Healthy Diet: A Mixed Methods Study in Argentina.

Background: Obesogenic environments promote sedentary behavior and high dietary energy intake. The objective of the study was to identify barriers and facilitators to the implementation and impact evaluation of projects oriented to promote physical activity and healthy diet at community level. We analyzed experiences of the projects implemented within the Healthy Municipalities and Communities Program (HMCP) in Argentina. Methods: A mixed methods approach included (1) in-depth semi-structured interviews, with 44 stakeholders; and (2) electronic survey completed by 206 individuals from 96 municipalities across the country. Results: The most important barriers included the lack of: adequate funding (43%); skilled personnel (42%); equipment and material resources (31%); technical support for data management and analysis (20%); training on project designs (12%); political support from local authorities (17%) and acceptance of the proposed intervention by the local community (9%). Facilitators included motivated local leaders, inter-sectorial participation and seizing local resources. Project evaluation was mostly based on process rather than outcome indicators. Conclusions: This study contributes to a better understanding of the difficulties in the implementation of community-based intervention projects. Findings may guide stakeholders on how to facilitate local initiatives. There is a need to improve project evaluation strategies by incorporating process, outcome and context specific indicators.

Update of the cardiovascular disease policy model to predict cardiovascular events in Argentina.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Argentina. Computer simulation models allow to extrapolate evidence to broader populations than the originally studied, over longer timeframes, and to compare different subpopulations. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) is a computer simulation state transition model used to represent and project future CVD mortality and morbidity in the population 35 years-old and older. The objective of this study was to update Argentina's version of the CVDPM. For this purpose, information from the 2010 National Census, the 2013 National Risk Factor Survey, CESCAS I study, and PrEViSTA study were used to update the dynamics of population size, demographics, and CVD risk factor distributions over time. Model projections were later calibrated by comparing them to actual data on CVD events and mortality in the year 2010 (baseline year) in Argentina. Country statistics for people 35 years-old and older reported for 2010 a total of 41 219 myocardial infarctions (MIs), 58 658 strokes, and 281 710 total deaths. The CVDPM, in turn, predicted 41 265 MIs (difference: 0.11%), 58 584 strokes (difference: 0.13%), and 280 707 total deaths (difference: 0.36%) in the same population. In all cases, the final version of the model predicted the actual number of events with an accuracy superior to 99.5%, and could be used to forecast the changes in CVD incidence and mortality after the implementation of public policies.

La enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) es la principal causa de muerte en Argentina. Los modelos de simulación por computadora permiten extrapolar evidencia a poblaciones más amplias que las originalmente estudiadas, a lo largo de períodos prolongados, y comparar diferentes subpoblaciones. El Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM, por sus siglas en inglés) es un modelo de simulación utilizado para representar y proyectar la mortalidad y morbilidad por ECV en la población de 35 o más años. El objetivo de este trabajo fue actualizar la versión argentina del CVDPM. Para esto, se utilizó información del Censo Nacional 2010, la Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo 2013, el estudio CESCAS I, y el estudio PrEViSTA, para actualizar la dinámica del tamaño de la población, sus características demográficas, y la distribución de factores de riesgo cardiovasculares a lo largo del tiempo. Las proyecciones del modelo se calibraron comparándolas con información sobre eventos de ECV y mortalidad en el año 2010 (año de referencia) en Argentina. Las estadísticas argentinas informaron que en 2010 la población de 35 o más años sufrió un total de 41 219 infartos de miocardio (IM), 58 658 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 281 710 muertes totales. El CVDPM predijo 41 265 IM (diferencia: 0.11%), 58 584 accidentes cerebrovasculares (diferencia: 0.13%) y 280 707 muertes totales (diferencia: 0.36%). En todos los casos, la versión final del modelo predijo el número real de eventos cardiovasculares con una precisión superior al 99.5%, pudiendo ser utilizado para pronosticar cambios en la incidencia y mortalidad de ECV debidos de la implementación de políticas públicas.

Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control of Hypertension in the Southern Cone of Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the leading global preventable risk factor for premature death. While hypertension prevalence has been declining in high-income countries, it has increased continuously in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 7,524 women and men aged 35-74 years from randomly selected samples in 4 cities (Bariloche and Marcos Paz, Argentina; Temuco, Chile; and Pando-Barros Blancos, Uruguay) in 2010-2011. Three blood pressure (BP) measurements were obtained by trained observers using a standard mercury sphygmomanometer. Hypertension was defined as a mean systolic BP ≥140mm Hg and/or diastolic BP ≥90mm Hg and/or use of antihypertensive medications. RESULTS: An estimated 42.5% of the study population (46.6% of men and 38.7% of women) had hypertension and an estimated 32.5% (36.0% of men and 29.4% of women) had prehypertension. Approximately 63.0% of adults with hypertension (52.5% of men and 74.3% of women) were aware of their disease condition, 48.7% (36.1% of men and 62.1% of women) were taking prescribed medications to lower their BP, and only 21.1% of all hypertensive patients (13.8% of men and 28.9% of women) and 43.3% of treated hypertensive patients (38.1% of men and 46.5% of women) achieved BP control. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the prevalence of hypertension is high while awareness, treatment, and control are low in the general population in the Southern Cone of Latin America. These data call for bold actions at regional and national levels to implement effective, practical, and sustainable intervention programs aimed to improve hypertension prevention, detection, and control.

Prevalence, Distributions and Determinants of Obesity and Central Obesity in the Southern Cone of America.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major determinant of cardiovascular disease in South America. However, population-based data are limited. METHODS: A total of 7,524 women and men, aged 35 to 74 years old, were randomly selected from 4 cities in the Southern Cone of Latin America between February 2010 and December 2011. Obesity clinical measurements and cardiovascular risk factors were measured using standard methodology. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity and central obesity were 35.7% and 52.9%, respectively. The prevalence of obesity and central obesity were higher in women, and even higher in women with lower education compared with women with higher education. In men and women obesity was associated with a higher prevalence of diabetes, odds ratio (OR) 2.38 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.86 to 3.05) and 3.01 (95%CI 2.42 to 3.74) respectively, hypertension (OR 2.79 (95%CI 2.32 to 3.36) and 2.40 (95%CI 2.05 to 2.80) respectively, dyslipidemia (OR 1.83 (95%CI 1.50 to 2.24) and 1.69 (95%CI 1.45 to 1.98), respectively, low physical activity (OR 1.38(95%CI 1.14 to 1.68) and 1.38 (95%CI 1.18 to 1.62) respectively and a lower prevalence of smoking (OR, 0.65 (95%CI 0.53 to 0.80) and 0.58(95%CI 0.48 to 0.70) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and central obesity are highly prevalent in the general population in the Southern Cone of Latin America and are strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factor prevalence. These data suggest that efforts toward prevention, treatment, and control of obesity should be a public health priority in the Southern Cone of Latin America.

Hypertension Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control in Selected LMIC Communities: Results From the NHLBI/UHG Network of Centers of Excellence for Chronic Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease and premature death worldwide. The prevalence of this public health problem is increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in both urban and rural communities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in adults 35 to 74 years of age from urban and rural communities in LMICs in Africa, Asia, and South America. METHODS: The authors analyzed data from 7 population-based cross-sectional studies in selected communities in 9 LMICs that were conducted between 2008 and 2013. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates of pre-hypertension and hypertension were calculated. The prevalence rates of awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension were estimated overall and by subgroups of age, sex, and educational level. RESULTS: In selected communities, age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates of hypertension among men and women 35 to 74 years of age were 49.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 42.3% to 57.4%) in Kenya, 54.9% (95% CI: 51.3% to 58.4%) in South Africa, 52.5% (95% CI: 50.1% to 54.8%) in China, 32.5% (95% CI: 31.7% to 33.3%) in India, 42.3% (95% CI: 40.4% to 44.2%) in Pakistan, 45.4% (95% CI: 43.6% to 47.2%) in Argentina, 39.9% (95% CI: 37.8% to 42.1%) in Chile, 19.2% (95% CI: 17.8% to 20.5%) in Peru, and 44.1% (95% CI: 41.6% to 46.6%) in Uruguay. The proportion of awareness varied from 33.5% in India to 69.0% in Peru, the proportion of treatment among those who were aware of their hypertension varied from 70.8% in South Africa to 93.3% in Pakistan, and the proportion of blood pressure control varied from 5.3% in China to 45.9% in Peru. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hypertension varies widely in different communities. The rates of awareness, treatment, and control also differ in different settings. There is a clear need to focus on increasing hypertension awareness and control in LMICs.

Challenges and opportunities for implementation of interventions to prevent and control CVD in low-resource settings: a report from CESCAS in Argentina.

In Argentina, cardiovascular diseases cause an estimated 100,000 deaths and more than 250,000 coronary heart disease and stroke events annually, at a cost of more than $1 billion international dollars. Despite progress in the implementation of several programs to combat noncommunicable diseases in Argentina over the past few years, most health resources are still dedicated to infectious diseases and maternal and child health. The Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, an independent academic institution affiliated with the University of Buenos Aires medical school, runs the South American Centre of Excellence in Cardiovascular Health (CESCAS), a center devoted to epidemiology, implementation, and policy research. At the CESCAS, there are 3 ongoing randomized clinical trials focused on implementation science: 1) a mobile health intervention, for preventing the progression of prehypertension in low-income, urban settings in Argentina, Guatemala, and Peru; 2) a comprehensive approach to preventing and controlling hypertension in low-resource settings in Argentina; and 3) an educational approach to improving physicians' effectiveness in the detection, treatment, and control of hypercholesterolemia and high cardiovascular disease risk in low-resource settings in Argentina. All of these trials involve the design and implementation of complex interventions for changing the behaviors of providers and patients. The rationale of each of the 3 studies, the design of the interventions, and the evaluation of processes and outcomes are described in this article, together with the barriers and enabling factors associated with implementation-research studies. There is a strong need in Argentina and all of Latin America for building the health-research capacity and infrastructure necessary for undertaking implementation studies that will translate evidence from research findings into improvements in health policy and practice with regard to cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors.

Multiple cardiometabolic risk factors in the Southern Cone of Latin America: a population-based study in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of death, and its mortality is increasing in Latin America. However, population-based data on cardiovascular disease risk factors are sparse in these countries. METHODS: A total of 7524 men and women, aged 35 to 74 years old, were recruited between February 2010 and December 2011 from randomly selected samples in 4 cities (Bariloche and Marcos Paz, Argentina; Temuco, Chile; and Pando-Barros Blancos, Uruguay) in the Southern Cone of Latin America. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured using standard methods by trained and certified observers. RESULTS: Approximately 85.5% of adults ate less than five servings of fruit or vegetables per day, 35.2% engaged in low physical activity, and 29.7% currently smoked cigarettes. The prevalences of obesity, central obesity, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome were 35.7%, 52.9%, 40.8%, 2.0%, 58.4%, 12.4%, and 37.4%, respectively. The proportion of individuals with ≥3 cardiovascular risk factors, including low intake of fruit and vegetables, low physical activity, current cigarette smoking, obesity or central obesity, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, was 68.3%, and the proportion of individuals with ≥3 cardiometabolic risk factors, including obesity or central obesity, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, was 22.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular disease risk factors are highly prevalent in the general population in the Southern Cone of Latin America. These data suggest that national efforts on the prevention, treatment, and control of cardiovascular risk factors should be a public health priority in the Southern Cone of Latin America.

Increased prevalence of diabetes in Argentina is due to easier health care access rather than to an actual increase in prevalence.

INTRODUCTION: According to the Argentine National Risk Factor Survey (ANRFS), between 2005 and 2009, self-reported Diabetes increased in Argentina from 8.4% to 9.6%, accompanied by a raise in the prevalence of obesity and low physical activity. In the same period, it also increased blood sugar checks from 69.3% to 75.7%. Since surveillance data in Argentina rely on self-reports, the estimated prevalence of diabetes may be affected by an increase in the proportion of subjects with access to preventive services. We evaluated the independent effect of a recent blood sugar check, on the increase in self-reported diagnoses of diabetes between 2005 and 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A secondary analysis of data from the 2005 and 2009 ANRFS was performed. Diabetes was defined as having been diagnosed Diabetes or high blood sugar by a health professional, obesity was calculated as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2), based on self-reported height and weight and physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. We used logistic regression models to explore the relationship between prevalence of self-reported diabetes and recent blood sugar check as the main predictor. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes rose from 8.4% to 9.6%; obesity from 14.5% to 18% and low physical activity from 46.2% to 55%, between 2005 and 2009. Among those who recently checked their blood sugar no differences were found in the prevalence of diabetes: 13% in 2005 vs. 13.2% in 2009. Findings of the multivariable analysis showed that obesity and low physical activity were significantly associated with self reported diabetes in the adjusted model (OR = 1.80 for obesity, and OR = 1.12 for low physical activity but the strongest predictor was recent blood sugar check (OR = 4.75). DISCUSSION: An increased prevalence of self-reported diabetes between 2005 and 2009 might indicate an improvement in the access to preventive services rather than a positive increase in the prevalence of diabetes.

Actualización del modelo de políticas en enfermedad cardiovascular en Argentina / Update of the cardiovascular disease policy model to predict cardiovascular events in Argentina

La enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) es la principal causa de muerte en Argentina. Los modelos de simulació;n por computadora permiten extrapolar evidencia a poblaciones más amplias que las originalmente estudiadas, a lo largo de períodos prolongados, y comparar diferentes subpoblaciones. El Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM, por sus siglas en ingló;©s) es un modelo de simulació;n utilizado para representar y proyectar la mortalidad y morbilidad por ECV en la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os. El objetivo de este trabajo fue actualizar la versió;n argentina del CVDPM. Para esto, se utilizó; informació;n del Censo Nacional 2010, la Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo 2013, el estudio CESCAS I, y el estudio PrEViSTA, para actualizar la dinámica del tamaó;±o de la població;n, sus características demográficas, y la distribució;n de factores de riesgo cardiovasculares a lo largo del tiempo. Las proyecciones del modelo se calibraron comparándolas con informació;n sobre eventos de ECV y mortalidad en el aó;±o 2010 (aó;±o de referencia) en Argentina. Las estadísticas argentinas informaron que en 2010 la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os sufrió; un total de 41 219 infartos de miocardio (IM), 58 658 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 281 710 muertes totales. El CVDPM predijo 41 265 IM (diferencia: 0.11%), 58 584 accidentes cerebrovasculares (diferencia: 0.13%) y 280 707 muertes totales (diferencia: 0.36%). En todos los casos, la versió;n final del modelo predijo el nó;ºmero real de eventos cardiovasculares con una precisió;n superior al 99.5%, pudiendo ser utilizado para pronosticar cambios en la incidencia y mortalidad de ECV debidos de la implementació;n de políticas pó;ºblicas.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Argentina. Computer simulation models allow to extrapolate evidence to broader populations than the originally studied, over longer timeframes, and to compare different subpopulations. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) is a computer simulation state transition model used to represent and project future CVD mortality and morbidity in the population 35 years-old and older. The objective of this study was to update Argentina’s version of the CVDPM. For this purpose, information from the 2010 National Census, the 2013 National Risk Factor Survey, CESCAS I study, and PrEViSTA study were used to update the dynamics of population size, demographics, and CVD risk factor distributions over time. Model projections were later calibrated by comparing them to actual data on CVD events and mortality in the year 2010 (baseline year) in Argentina. Country statistics for people 35 years-old and older reported for 2010 a total of 41 219 myocardial infarctions (MIs), 58 658 strokes, and 281 710 total deaths. The CVDPM, in turn, predicted 41 265 MIs (difference: 0.11%), 58 584 strokes (difference: 0.13%), and 280 707 total deaths (difference: 0.36%) in the same population. In all cases, the final version of the model predicted the actual number of events with an accuracy superior to 99.5%, and could be used to forecast the changes in CVD incidence and mortality after the implementation of public policies.

Update of the cardiovascular disease policy model to predict cardiovascular events in Argentina

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Argentina. Computer simulation models allow to extrapolate evidence to broader populations than the originally studied, over longer timeframes, and to compare different subpopulations. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) is a computer simulation state transition model used to represent and project future CVD mortality and morbidity in the population 35 years-old and older. The objective of this study was to update Argentina’s version of the CVDPM. For this purpose, information from the 2010 National Census, the 2013 National Risk Factor Survey, CESCAS I study, and PrEViSTA study were used to update the dynamics of population size, demographics, and CVD risk factor distributions over time. Model projections were later calibrated by comparing them to actual data on CVD events and mortality in the year 2010 (baseline year) in Argentina. Country statistics for people 35 years-old and older reported for 2010 a total of 41 219 myocardial infarctions (MIs), 58 658 strokes, and 281 710 total deaths. The CVDPM, in turn, predicted 41 265 MIs (difference: 0.11%), 58 584 strokes (difference: 0.13%), and 280 707 total deaths (difference: 0.36%) in the same population. In all cases, the final version of the model predicted the actual number of events with an accuracy superior to 99.5%, and could be used to forecast the changes in CVD incidence and mortality after the implementation of public policies.

La enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) es la principal causa de muerte en Argentina. Los modelos de simulació;n por computadora permiten extrapolar evidencia a poblaciones más amplias que las originalmente estudiadas, a lo largo de períodos prolongados, y comparar diferentes subpoblaciones. El Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM, por sus siglas en ingló;©s) es un modelo de simulació;n utilizado para representar y proyectar la mortalidad y morbilidad por ECV en la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os. El objetivo de este trabajo fue actualizar la versió;n argentina del CVDPM. Para esto, se utilizó; informació;n del Censo Nacional 2010, la Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo 2013, el estudio CESCAS I, y el estudio PrEViSTA, para actualizar la dinámica del tamaó;±o de la població;n, sus características demográficas, y la distribució;n de factores de riesgo cardiovasculares a lo largo del tiempo. Las proyecciones del modelo se calibraron comparándolas con informació;n sobre eventos de ECV y mortalidad en el aó;±o 2010 (aó;±o de referencia) en Argentina. Las estadísticas argentinas informaron que en 2010 la població;n de 35 o más aó;±os sufrió; un total de 41 219 infartos de miocardio (IM), 58 658 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 281 710 muertes totales. El CVDPM predijo 41 265 IM (diferencia: 0.11%), 58 584 accidentes cerebrovasculares (diferencia: 0.13%) y 280 707 muertes totales (diferencia: 0.36%). En todos los casos, la versió;n final del modelo predijo el nó;ºmero real de eventos cardiovasculares con una precisió;n superior al 99.5%, pudiendo ser utilizado para pronosticar cambios en la incidencia y mortalidad de ECV debidos de la implementació;n de políticas pó;ºblicas.

Comparison of dobutamine electrocardiographic stress test and exercise test in two different groups of patients with unstable angina

Exercise testing is a well known means of evaluating patients with unstable angina, but in recent years, alternative methods have been proposed. We prospectively compared standard exercise testing with dobutamine electrocardiographic stress testing for patients who admitted with a diagnosis of unstable angina. A total of 43 patients were studied, divided into two different groups, according to the presence (group A n = 26) or absence (group B n = 17) of a previous history of coronary artery disease and/or electrocardiographic changes compatible with ischemia on admission. Dobutamine electrocardiographic stress testing was performed in a standard manner at 3 + 1 days after admission in group A and at 16 + 8 hours after admission in group B. Exercise testing was performed, on average 5 + 1 days following the event in group A and 2 days after admission in group B. Agreement between both tests was observed in 39 (91 percent) cases, Kappa value: 0.81. The dobutamine test predicted the result of the exercise test with a sensitivity of 79 percent (95 percent CL 54-90), and a specificity of 100 percent (95 percent CL 86-100), with a positive predictive value of 100 percent and a negative predictive value of 86 percent. It can be concluded that dobutamine electrocardiographic stress testing is an objective and reliable procedure that accurately predicts the results of standard exercise testing in patients with a diagnosis of unstable angina. It this result were confirmed with a greater number of patients, it would be a good option for definitive diagnosis and risk stratification, in addition to being inexpensive and easy to perform. It can also be particularly useful for patients who cannot perform exercise.