Occupational Benzene Exposure and Lung Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of 14 Case-Control Studies.

Rationale: Benzene has been classified as carcinogenic to humans, but there is limited evidence linking benzene exposure to lung cancer. Objectives: We aimed to examine the relationship between occupational benzene exposure and lung cancer. Methods: Subjects from 14 case-control studies across Europe and Canada were pooled. We used a quantitative job-exposure matrix to estimate benzene exposure. Logistic regression models assessed lung cancer risk across different exposure indices. We adjusted for smoking and five main occupational lung carcinogens and stratified analyses by smoking status and lung cancer subtypes. Measurements and Main Results: Analyses included 28,048 subjects (12,329 cases, 15,719 control subjects). Lung cancer odds ratios ranged from 1.12 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.22) to 1.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.48) (Ptrend = 0.002) for groups with the lowest and highest cumulative occupational exposures, respectively, compared with unexposed subjects. We observed an increasing trend of lung cancer with longer duration of exposure (Ptrend < 0.001) and a decreasing trend with longer time since last exposure (Ptrend = 0.02). These effects were seen for all lung cancer subtypes, regardless of smoking status, and were not influenced by specific occupational groups, exposures, or studies. Conclusions: We found consistent and robust associations between different dimensions of occupational benzene exposure and lung cancer after adjusting for smoking and main occupational lung carcinogens. These associations were observed across different subgroups, including nonsmokers. Our findings support the hypothesis that occupational benzene exposure increases the risk of developing lung cancer. Consequently, there is a need to revisit published epidemiological and molecular data on the pulmonary carcinogenicity of benzene.

Survivorship program including long-term toxicities and quality-of-life development over 10 years in a randomized trial in operable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (ESPATUE).

Over 40% stage-III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients (pts) experience 5-year survival following multimodality treatment. Nevertheless, little is known about relevant late toxicities and quality-of-life (QoL) in the further long-term follow-up. Therefore, we invited pts from our randomized phase-III trial (Eberhardt et al., Journal of Clinical Oncology 2015) after 10 years from diagnosis to participate within a structured survivorship program (SSP) including follow-up imaging, laboratory parameters, cardio-pulmonary investigations, long-term toxicity evaluations and QoL questionnaires. Of 246 pts initially accrued, 161 were considered potentially resectable following the induction therapy and were randomized (80 to arm A: definitive chemoradiation; 81 to arm B: definitive surgery; 85 not randomized for different reasons; group C). 31 from 37 pts still alive after 10 years agreed to the SSP (13 in A; 12 in B; 6 in C). Clinically relevant long-term toxicities (grade 3 and 4) were rarely observed with no signal favoring any of the randomization arms. Furthermore, available data from the global QoL analysis did not show a signal favoring any definitive locoregional approach (Mean QoL in SSP A pts: 56.41/100, B pts: 64.39/100) and no late decline in comparison to baseline and early 1-year follow-up. This is the first comprehensive SSP of very late survival follow-up reported in stage-III NSCLC treated within a randomized multimodality trial and it may serve as important baseline information for physicians and pts deciding for a locoregional treatment option.

Socioeconomic status, smoking, and lung cancer: mediation and bias analysis in the SYNERGY study.

BACKGROUND: Increased lung-cancer risks for low socioeconomic status (SES) groups are only partially attributable to smoking habits. Little effort has been made to investigate the persistent risks related to low SES by quantification of potential biases. METHODS: Based on 12 case-control studies, including 18 centers of the international SYNERGY project (16,550 cases, 20,147 controls), we estimated controlled direct effects (CDE) of SES on lung cancer via multiple logistic regression, adjusted for age, study center, and smoking habits, and stratified by sex. We conducted mediation analysis by inverse odds ratio weighting to estimate natural direct effects (NDE) and natural indirect effects via smoking habits. We considered misclassification of smoking status, selection bias, and unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding by genetic risk, both separately as well as by multiple quantitative bias analysis, using bootstrap to create 95% simulation intervals (SI). RESULTS: Mediation analysis of lung-cancer risks for SES estimated mean proportions of 43% in men and 33% in women attributable to smoking. Bias analyses decreased direct effects of SES on lung cancer, with selection bias showing the strongest reduction in lung-cancer risk in the multiple bias analysis. Lung-cancer risks remained increased for lower SES groups, with higher risks in men [4th versus 1st (highest) SES quartile: CDE 1.50 (SI 1.32-1.69)] than women [CDE 1.20 (SI 1.01-1.45)]. NDE were similar to CDE, particularly in men. CONCLUSIONS: Bias adjustment lowered direct lung-cancer risk estimates of lower SES groups. However, risks for low SES remained elevated, likely attributable to occupational hazards or other environmental exposures.

Health-Related Complications during Follow-Up and Their Impact on Blood Cancer Survivors: Results from the "Aftercare in Blood Cancer Survivors" (ABC) Study.

INTRODUCTION: Blood cancer survivors are at increased risk for medical complications. METHODS: Our questionnaire-based study involved 1,551 blood cancer survivors with a ≥3-year interval since the last intense treatment. Its goal was to quantify health-related complications during follow-up and assess their impact on the patients' lives. RESULTS: A total of 20.4% of the responding survivors reported a disease relapse, most often in indolent lymphomas. Second primary malignancies occurred in 14.1%, primarily in lymphoma and allogeneic transplantation survivors. The most frequent malignancy was basal cell carcinoma of the skin, but myeloid malignancies, melanoma, bladder, head-and-neck, and thyroid cancer also appeared disproportionately frequent. An increased infection rate was reported by 43.7%, most often after allogeneic transplantation. New cardiovascular diseases were reported by 30.2%, with a high rate of thromboembolic events in multiple myeloma (MM) and myeloproliferative diseases. Polyneuropathies were reported by 39.1%, most often by survivors with a history of MM or aggressive lymphoma. Disease relapse was perceived as the highest burden, followed by second primary malignancy, increased infection frequency, and polyneuropathy. In each area investigated, the range of perceived severities was wide. CONCLUSIONS: Health-related complications are frequent during blood cancer follow-up, with significant repercussions on the patients' lives.

Prevalent occupational exposures and risk of lung cancer among women: Results from the application of the Canadian Job-Exposure Matrix (CANJEM) to a combined set of ten case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, lung cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in women. The present study explored associations between occupational exposures that are prevalent among women, and lung cancer. METHODS: Data from 10 case-control studies of lung cancer from Europe, Canada, and New Zealand conducted between 1988 and 2008 were combined. Lifetime occupational history and information on nonoccupational factors including smoking were available for 3040 incident lung cancer cases and 4187 controls. We linked each reported job to the Canadian Job-Exposure Matrix (CANJEM), which provided estimates of probability, intensity, and frequency of exposure to each selected agent in each job. For this analysis, we selected 15 agents (cleaning agents, biocides, cotton dust, synthetic fibers, formaldehyde, cooking fumes, organic solvents, cellulose, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from petroleum, ammonia, metallic dust, alkanes C18+, iron compounds, isopropanol, and calcium carbonate) that had lifetime exposure prevalence of at least 5% in the combined study population. For each agent, we estimated lung cancer risk in each study center for ever-exposure, by duration of exposure, and by cumulative exposure, using separate logistic regression models adjusted for smoking and other covariates. We then estimated the meta-odds ratios using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: None of the agents assessed showed consistent and compelling associations with lung cancer among women. The following agents showed elevated odds ratio in some analyses: metallic dust, iron compounds, isopropanol, and organic solvents. Future research into occupational lung cancer risk factors among women should prioritize these agents.

Differences in risk profile associated with varicose veins and chronic venous insufficiency - results from the Bonn Vein Study 1.

Background: The aim of this publication is to demonstrate similarities and differences in the association of risk factors with the prevalence of different manifestations of chronic venous disease (CVD), like varicose veins (VV), venous oedema (C3) and severe chronic venous insufficiency (CVI) in the population-based cross-sectional Bonn Vein Study 1 (BVS). Patients and methods: In the BVS 1 between 13.11.2000 and 15.3.2002, 3.072 participants, 1350 men and 1722 women, from a simple random sample of the general population of the city of Bonn and two rural townships aged 18-79 years were included. The overall response proportion was 59%. All participants answered a standardized questionnaire including information about socio-economic data, lifestyle, physical activity, medical history, and quality of life. Venous investigations were performed clinically and by a standardized duplex examination by trained investigators. The CEAP classification in the version of 1996 was used to classify the findings. Logistic regression models were performed for the association of possible risk factors with VV, venous edema (C3) and severe CVI (C4-C6). The predictive risk (PR) describes the association of the diseases and the possible influencing factors. Results: VV, venous oedema (C3) and severe CVI (C4-C6) have common risk factors like higher age, number of pregnancies, family history of VV and overweight or obesity. Female gender is significantly associated with VV and C3 but not with severe CVI (C4-C6). High blood pressure and urban living are only associated with C3 and C4-C6 disease whereas prolonged sitting is associated with C3 and lower social class with C4-C6 exclusively. Discussion: In many epidemiological studies risk factors were associated with chronic venous disorders in general. Our data show that VV, venous edema and severe CVI may have different risk profiles. Venous edema is more often associated with arterial hypertension and sedentary lifestyle whereas lower social class seems to be a risk factor for severe CVI including venous ulcers. Conclusions: The differences in the association of risk factors to VV, venous edema and severe CVI should be considered if prevention and treatment of chronic venous diseases are planned. As examples, compression stockings could be proposed in sitting profession to prevent oedema, VV patients with risk factors like obesity might benefit from early treatment for VV and obesity. More longitudinal evaluation of risk factors is necessary to evaluate the true risk profile of CVD.

Occupational exposure to nickel and hexavalent chromium and the risk of lung cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies (SYNERGY).

There is limited evidence regarding the exposure-effect relationship between lung-cancer risk and hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) or nickel. We estimated lung-cancer risks in relation to quantitative indices of occupational exposure to Cr(VI) and nickel and their interaction with smoking habits. We pooled 14 case-control studies from Europe and Canada, including 16 901 lung-cancer cases and 20 965 control subjects. A measurement-based job-exposure-matrix estimated job-year-region specific exposure levels to Cr(VI) and nickel, which were linked to the subjects' occupational histories. Odds ratios (OR) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for study, age group, smoking habits and exposure to other occupational lung carcinogens. Due to their high correlation, we refrained from mutually adjusting for Cr(VI) and nickel independently. In men, ORs for the highest quartile of cumulative exposure to CR(VI) were 1.32 (95% CI 1.19-1.47) and 1.29 (95% CI 1.15-1.45) in relation to nickel. Analogous results among women were: 1.04 (95% CI 0.48-2.24) and 1.29 (95% CI 0.60-2.86), respectively. In men, excess lung-cancer risks due to occupational Cr(VI) and nickel exposure were also observed in each stratum of never, former and current smokers. Joint effects of Cr(VI) and nickel with smoking were in general greater than additive, but not different from multiplicative. In summary, relatively low cumulative levels of occupational exposure to Cr(VI) and nickel were associated with increased ORs for lung cancer, particularly in men. However, we cannot rule out a combined classical measurement and Berkson-type of error structure, which may cause differential bias of risk estimates.

Association of regional white matter hyperintensities with hypertension and cognition in the population-based 1000BRAINS study.

BACKGROUND: White matter hyperintensities of presumed vascular origin (WMH) are frequent in cerebral magnetic resonance imaging of older people. They are promoted by vascular risk factors, especially hypertension, and are associated with cognitive deficits at the group level. It has been suggested that not only the severity, but also the location, of lesions might critically influence cognitive deficits and represent different pathologies. METHODS: In 560 participants (65.2 ± 7.5 years, 51.4% males) of the population-based 1000BRAINS study, we analyzed the association of regional WMH using Fazekas scoring separately for cerebral lobes, with hypertension and cognition. RESULTS: WMH most often affected the frontal lobe (83.7% score >0), followed by the parietal (75.8%), temporal (32.7%), and occipital lobe (7.3%). Higher Fazekas scores in the frontal, parietal, and temporal lobe were associated with higher blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment in unadjusted ordinal regression models and in models adjusted for age, sex, and vascular risk factors (e.g., age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval = 1.03-1.25 for the association of frontal lobe WMH Fazekas score with systolic blood pressure [SBP] [per 10 mm Hg]; 1.13 [1.02-1.23] for the association of parietal lobe score with SBP; 1.72 [1.19-2.48] for the association of temporal lobe score with antihypertensive medications). In linear regressions, higher frontal lobe scores were associated with lower performance in executive function and non-verbal memory, and higher parietal lobe scores were associated with lower performance in executive function, verbal-, and non-verbal memory. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension promotes WMH in the frontal, parietal, and temporal lobe. WMH in the frontal and parietal lobe are associated with reduced executive function and memory.

Grip strength values and cut-off points based on over 200,000 adults of the German National Cohort - a comparison to the EWGSOP2 cut-off points.

BACKGROUND: The European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP) updated in 2018 the cut-off points for low grip strength to assess sarcopenia based on pooled data from 12 British studies. OBJECTIVE: Comparison of the EWGSOP2 cut-off points for low grip strength to those derived from a large German sample. METHODS: We assessed the grip strength distribution across age and derived low grip strength cut-off points for men and women (peak mean -2.5 × SD) based on 200,389 German National Cohort (NAKO) participants aged 19-75 years. In 1,012 Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA)-Age participants aged 65-93 years, we calculated the age-standardised prevalence of low grip strength and time-dependent sensitivity and specificity for all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Grip strength increased in the third and fourth decade of life and declined afterwards. Calculated cut-off points for low grip strength were 29 kg for men and 18 kg for women. In KORA-Age, the age-standardised prevalence of low grip strength was 1.5× higher for NAKO-derived (17.7%) compared to EWGSOP2 (11.7%) cut-off points. NAKO-derived cut-off points yielded a higher sensitivity and lower specificity for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Cut-off points for low grip strength from German population-based data were 2 kg higher than the EWGSOP2 cut-off points. Higher cut-off points increase the sensitivity, thereby suggesting an intervention for more patients at risk, while other individuals might receive additional diagnostics/treatment without the urgent need. Research on the effectiveness of intervention in patients with low grip strength defined by different cut-off points is needed.

Long-term Air Pollution Exposure and Pneumonia-related Mortality in a Large Pooled European Cohort.

Rationale: Ambient air pollution exposure has been linked to mortality from chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, while evidence on respiratory infections remains more limited. Objectives: We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and pneumonia-related mortality in adults in a pool of eight European cohorts. Methods: Within the multicenter project ELAPSE (Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe), we pooled data from eight cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations in 2010 for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), and ozone were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and pneumonia, influenza, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) mortality. Measurements and Main Results: Of 325,367 participants, 712 died from pneumonia and influenza combined, 682 from pneumonia, and 695 from ALRI during a mean follow-up of 19.5 years. NO2 and BC were associated with 10-12% increases in pneumonia and influenza combined mortality, but 95% confidence intervals included unity (hazard ratios, 1.12 [0.99-1.26] per 10 µg/m3 for NO2; 1.10 [0.97-1.24] per 0.5 10-5m-1 for BC). Associations with pneumonia and ALRI mortality were almost identical. We detected effect modification suggesting stronger associations with NO2 or BC in overweight, employed, or currently smoking participants compared with normal weight, unemployed, or nonsmoking participants. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to combustion-related air pollutants NO2 and BC may be associated with mortality from lower respiratory infections, but larger studies are needed to estimate these associations more precisely.

On the gap between objective and perceived risks of COVID-19.

A survey conducted by the German Socio-Economic Panel during the early phase of the SARS-CoV­2 pandemic in spring 2020 showed that the perceived risks of SARS-CoV­2 infection were a massive overestimation of the actual risks. A total of 5783 people (2.3% missing data) stated how likely they thought it was that SARS-CoV­2 would cause a life-threatening illness in them in the next 12 months. The average subjective probability was 26%. We consider how such an overestimation could have occurred and how a more realistic risk assessment could be achieved in the population in a future pandemic. We show that qualitative attributes of the pandemic, the reporting of the media, and psychological features may have contributed to the overestimation of SARS-CoV­2 risks. In its early stages, the SARS-CoV­2 pandemic had qualitative characteristics known to lead to an overestimation of risks: The risks associated with the pandemic were new, unfamiliar, perceived as poorly controllable, and were taken involuntarily. Phenomena known from cognitive psychology such as the availability and anchor heuristics can also explain the overestimation of pandemic risks. Characteristics of media coverage such as the focus on individual fates and the associated neglect of the denominator also contributed to the gap between perceived and objective risk. In a potential future pandemic, people need to be vigilant but not in a panic. Better risk communication-for example, with better prepared figures and graphically presented percentages while avoiding the denominator neglect-could help the population to perceive risks of future pandemics more realistically.

[Regional Differences in Thyroid Function Parameters: A Comparison of European Cohort Studies]. / Regionale Unterschiede von Schilddrüsenfunktionsparametern: ein Vergleich europäischer Kohortenstudien.

AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of the project was to investigate regional differences in thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), and free thyroxine (fT4) concentrations and iodine status in comparable German and European cohort studies. METHODS: Sex- and age-stratified TSH, fT4, and urine iodine concentrations of thyroid-healthy participants (age group 45-75 years) of the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study in the Ruhr region of Germany, the southern German KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Augsburg Region) and northeastern German SHIP (Study of Health in Pomerania) studies, as well as the Norwegian HUNT (Nord-Trøndelag Health) study (age group 40-79 years), the English EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study, and the Dutch Rotterdam study were compared. The TSH reference range for the HNR study population was calculated and compared to the KORA and SHIP studies. RESULTS: Regional differences showed a stronger influence on TSH and fT4 concentrations than sex and age of the subjects in the 45- to 75-year age group. The estimated difference in medians, as measured by the HNR study, was lowest in the SHIP study, -0.47 (95% CI: -0.53; -0.41) for men and -0.41 (-0.53; -0.41) for women. The Rotterdam study had the highest difference in medians for both men and women (men: 0.56 with 0.44; 0.68 and women: 0.62 with 0.46; 0.78). The lowest median TSH concentrations, across all age categories considered, were seen in the German cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Comparison of thyroid function parameters and iodine in elderly subjects between six comparable cohort studies from Germany and Europe showed a significant influence of region, which exceeded the sex and age dependence of the parameters.

Five-Year Results of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting With or Without Carotid Endarterectomy in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis: CABACS RCT.

BACKGROUND: In patients with coronary artery disease and concomitant asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis, combined simultaneous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been widely performed despite lack of evidence from randomized trials. We recently showed that the risk of stroke or death within 30 days was higher following CABG+CEA compared with CABG alone. Here, we report long-term outcomes following CABG with versus without CEA. METHODS: The CABACS (Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Study) is a randomized, controlled, multicenter, open trial. Patients with asymptomatic severe (≥70%) carotid stenosis undergoing CABG were allocated either CABG+CEA or CABG alone, and follow-up was 5 years. Major secondary end points included nonfatal stroke or death, any death and any nonfatal stroke. Due to low recruitment, the study was stopped prematurely after randomization of 127 patients in 17 centers. RESULTS: By 5 years, the rate of stroke or death did not significantly differ between groups (CABG+CEA 40.6% [95% CI, 0.285-0.536], CABG alone 35.0% [95% CI, 0.231-0.484]; P=0.58). Higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rates of nonfatal strokes occurred at any time following CABG+CEA versus CABG alone (1 year: 19.3% versus 7.1%, P=0.09; 5 years: 29.4% versus 18.8%, P=0.25). All-cause mortality up to 5 years was similar in both groups (CABG+CEA: 25.4% versus CABG alone: 23.3%, hazard ratio, 1.148 [95% CI, 0.560-2.353]; P=0.71). Subgroup analyses did not reveal any significant effect of age, sex, preoperative modified Rankin Scale and center on outcome events. CONCLUSIONS: During 5-years follow-up, combined simultaneous CABG+CEA was associated with a higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rate of stroke or death compared with CABG alone. This was mainly due to a nonsignificantly higher perioperative risk following CABG+CEA. Since the power of our study was not sufficient, no significant effect of either procedure could be observed at any time during follow-up. REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN13486906.

Lifetime Exposure to Welding Fumes and Risk of Some Rare Cancers.

We investigated the association between exposure to welding fumes and the risk of biliary tract, male breast, bone, and thymus cancer, as well as cancer of the small intestine, eye melanoma, and mycosis fungoides, among men in a European, multicenter case-control study. From 1995-1997, 644 cases and 1,959 control subjects from 7 countries were studied with respect to information on welding and potential confounders. We linked the welding histories of the participants with a measurement-based exposure matrix to calculate lifetime exposure to welding fumes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression models, conditional on country and 5-year age groups, and adjusted for education and relevant confounders. Regular welding was associated with an increased risk of cancer of the small intestine (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.17, 4.50). Lifetime exposure to welding fumes above the median of exposed controls was associated with an increased risk of cancer of the small intestine (OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.72) and male breast (OR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.77), and some elevation in risk was apparent for bone cancer (OR = 1.92, 95% CI: 0.85, 4.34) with increasing lifetime exposure to welding fumes. Welding fumes could contribute to an increased risk of some rare cancers.

Discrepancy between frequent occurrence of COVID-19-like symptoms and low seroconversion rates among healthcare workers.

During the first wave of the pandemic, we compared the occurrence of subjectively experienced COVID-19-like symptoms and true severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroconversion rates among medical personnel in general practices. This cross-sectional study determined the SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody status of medical staff from 100 outpatient practices in Germany. Study cohort characteristics and COVID-19-like symptoms were obtained by questionnaires. The initial screening for SARS-CoV-2-recognizing antibodies was performed using a commercial chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. Positive results were controlled with another approved test. Samples with discrepant results were subjected to a third IgG-binding assay and a neutralization test. A total of 861 participants were included, 1.7% (n = 15) of whom tested positive for SARS-CoV-specific IgG in the initial screening test. In 46.6% (n = 7) of positive cases, test results were confirmed by an independent test. In the eight samples with discrepant results, neither spike-specific antibodies nor in vitro neutralizing capacity were detectable, resulting in a genuine seroprevalence rate of 0.8%. 794 participants completed the questionnaire. Intriguingly, a total of 53.7% (n = 426) of them stated episodes of COVID-19-like symptoms. Except for smell and taste dysfunction, there were no significant differences between the groups with and without laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion. Our results demonstrated that only 0.8% of participants acquired SARS-CoV-2 even though 53.7% of participants reportedly experienced COVID-19-like symptoms. Thus, even among medical staff, self-diagnosis based on subjectively experienced symptoms does not have a relevant predictive value.

Long-Term Exposure to Source-Specific Fine Particles and Mortality─A Pooled Analysis of 14 European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project.

We assessed mortality risks associated with source-specific fine particles (PM2.5) in a pooled European cohort of 323,782 participants. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for source-specific PM2.5 identified through a source apportionment analysis. Exposure to 2010 annual average concentrations of source-specific PM2.5 components was assessed at baseline residential addresses. The source apportionment resulted in the identification of five sources: traffic, residual oil combustion, soil, biomass and agriculture, and industry. In single-source analysis, all identified sources were significantly positively associated with increased natural mortality risks. In multisource analysis, associations with all sources attenuated but remained statistically significant with traffic, oil, and biomass and agriculture. The highest association per interquartile increase was observed for the traffic component (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04 and 1.08 per 2.86 µg/m3 increase) across five identified sources. On a 1 µg/m3 basis, the residual oil-related PM2.5 had the strongest association (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05 and 1.22), which was substantially higher than that for generic PM2.5 mass, suggesting that past estimates using the generic PM2.5 exposure response function have underestimated the potential clean air health benefits of reducing fossil-fuel combustion. Source-specific associations with cause-specific mortality were in general consistent with findings of natural mortality.

Statistical Analysis in the German National Cohort (NAKO) - Specific Aspects and General Recommendations.

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is an ongoing, prospective multicenter cohort study, which started recruitment in 2014 and includes more than 205,000 women and men aged 19-74 years. The study data will be available to the global research community for analyses. Although the ultimate decision about the analytic methods will be made by the respective investigator, in this paper we provide the basis for a harmonized approach to the statistical analyses in the NAKO. We discuss specific aspects of the study (e.g., data collection, weighting to account for the sampling design), but also give general recommendations which may apply to other large cohort studies as well.

Framework and baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO).

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is a multidisciplinary, population-based prospective cohort study that aims to investigate the causes of widespread diseases, identify risk factors and improve early detection and prevention of disease. Specifically, NAKO is designed to identify novel and better characterize established risk and protection factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, respiratory and infectious diseases in a random sample of the general population. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 205,415 men and women aged 19-74 years were recruited and examined in 18 study centres in Germany. The baseline assessment included a face-to-face interview, self-administered questionnaires and a wide range of biomedical examinations. Biomaterials were collected from all participants including serum, EDTA plasma, buffy coats, RNA and erythrocytes, urine, saliva, nasal swabs and stool. In 56,971 participants, an intensified examination programme was implemented. Whole-body 3T magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 30,861 participants on dedicated scanners. NAKO collects follow-up information on incident diseases through a combination of active follow-up using self-report via written questionnaires at 2-3 year intervals and passive follow-up via record linkages. All study participants are invited for re-examinations at the study centres in 4-5 year intervals. Thereby, longitudinal information on changes in risk factor profiles and in vascular, cardiac, metabolic, neurocognitive, pulmonary and sensory function is collected. NAKO is a major resource for population-based epidemiology to identify new and tailored strategies for early detection, prediction, prevention and treatment of major diseases for the next 30 years.

Neighbourhood socio-economic status and positive affectivity among older residents in Germany: a cross-sectional analysis with data from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

BACKGROUND: Physical and social neighbourhood characteristics can vary according to the neighbourhood socio-economic status (SES) and influence residents' perceptions, behaviours and health outcomes both positively and negatively. Neighbourhood SES has been shown to be predictive of mental health, which is relevant for healthy ageing and prevention of dementia or depression. Positive affectivity (PA) is an established indicator of mental health and might indicate a positive emotional response to neighbourhood characteristics. In this study, we focussed on the association of neighbourhood SES with PA among older residents in Germany and considered social integration and environmental perceptions in this association. METHODS: We used questionnaire-based data of the ongoing population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study for our cross-sectional analysis, complemented by secondary data on social welfare rates in the neighbourhood of residents' address. PA was assessed using the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) in 2016. Linear regression models were performed to estimate the associations and adjusted for socio-demographic variables. RESULTS: Higher social welfare rates were associated with lower PA scores. The strongest negative association from the crude model (b = -1.916, 95%-CI [-2.997, -0.835]) was reduced after controlling for socio-demographic variables (b = -1.429, 95%-CI [-2.511, -0.346]). Social integration factors (b = -1.199, 95%-CI [-2.276, -0.121]) and perceived environmental factors (b = -0.875, 95%-CI [-1.971, 0.221]) additionally diminished the association of social welfare rates with PA in the full model (b = -0.945, 95%-CI [-2.037, 0.147]). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that neighbourhoods have an influence on the occurrence and the extent of PA. Public health interventions that address socio-economic disadvantage in the neighbourhood environment could be an effective and far-reaching way to reduce the risk of depression and depressive symptoms due to low PA in older residents.

External validation of six clinical models for prediction of chronic kidney disease in a German population.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for large personal health and societal burdens. Screening populations at higher risk for CKD is effective to initiate earlier treatment and decelerate disease progress. We externally validated clinical prediction models for unknown CKD that might be used in population screening. METHODS: We validated six risk models for prediction of CKD using only non-invasive parameters. Validation data came from 4,185 participants of the German Heinz-Nixdorf-Recall study (HNR), drawn in 2000 from a general population aged 45-75 years. We estimated discrimination and calibration using the full model information, and calculated the diagnostic properties applying the published scoring algorithms of the models using various thresholds for the sum of scores. RESULTS: The risk models used four to nine parameters. Age and hypertension were included in all models. Five out of six c-values ranged from 0.71 to 0.73, indicating fair discrimination. Positive predictive values ranged from 15 to 19%, negative predictive values were > 93% using score thresholds that resulted in values for sensitivity and specificity above 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the selected CKD prediction models show fair discrimination in a German general population. The estimated diagnostic properties indicate that the models are suitable for identifying persons at higher risk for unknown CKD without invasive procedures.