Determinants of durable humoral and T cell immunity in myeloma patients following COVID-19 vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: To describe determinants of persisting humoral and cellular immune response to the second COVID-19 vaccination among patients with myeloma. METHODS: This is a prospective, observational study utilising the RUDYstudy.org platform. Participants reported their second and third COVID-19 vaccination dates. Myeloma patients had an Anti-S antibody level sample taken at least 21 days after their second vaccination and a repeat sample before their third vaccination. RESULTS: 60 patients provided samples at least 3 weeks (median 57.5 days) after their second vaccination and before their third vaccination (median 176.0 days after second vaccine dose). Low Anti-S antibody levels (<50 IU/mL) doubled during this interval (p = .023) and, in the 47 participants with T-spot data, there was a 25% increase negative T-spot tests (p = .008). Low anti-S antibody levels prior to the third vaccination were predicted by lower Anti-S antibody level and negative T-spot status after the second vaccine. Independent determinants of a negative T-spot included increasing age, previous COVID infection, high CD4 count and lower percentage change in Anti-S antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: Negative T-spot results predict low Anti-S antibody levels (<50 IU/mL) following a second COVID-19 vaccination and a number of biomarkers predict T cell responses in myeloma patients.

Patients' recovery of mobility and return to original residence after hip fracture are associated with multiple modifiable components of hospital service organisation: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are devastating injuries causing disability, dependence, and institutionalisation, yet hospital care is highly variable. This study aimed to determine hospital organisational factors associated with recovery of mobility and change in patient residence after hip fracture. METHODS: A cohort of patients aged 60 + years in England and Wales, who sustained a hip fracture from 2016 to 2019 was examined. Patient-level Hospital Episodes Statistics, National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality records were linked to 101 factors derived from 18 hospital-level organisational metrics. After adjustment for patient case-mix, multilevel models were used to identify organisational factors associated with patient residence at discharge, and mobility and residence at 120 days after hip fracture. RESULTS: Across 172 hospitals, 165,350 patients survived to discharge, of whom 163,230 (99%) had post-hospital discharge destination recorded. 18,323 (11%) died within 120 days. Among 147,027 survivors, 58,344 (40%) across 143 hospitals had their residence recorded, and 56,959 (39%) across 140 hospitals had their mobility recorded, at 120 days. Nineteen organisational factors independently predicted residence on hospital discharge e.g., return to original residence was 31% (95% confidence interval, CI:17-43%) more likely if the anaesthetic lead for hip fracture had time allocated in their job plan, and 8-13% more likely if hip fracture service clinical governance meetings were attended by an orthopaedic surgeon, physiotherapist or anaesthetist. Seven organisational factors independently predicted residence at 120 days. Patients returning to their pre-fracture residence was 26% (95%CI:4-42%) more likely if hospitals had a dedicated hip fracture ward, and 20% (95%CI:8-30%) more likely if treatment plans were proactively discussed with patients and families on admission. Seventeen organisational factors predicted mobility at 120 days. More patients re-attained their pre-fracture mobility in hospitals where (i) care involved an orthogeriatrician (15% [95%CI:1-28%] improvement), (ii) general anaesthesia was usually accompanied by a nerve block (7% [95%CI:1-12%], and (iii) bedside haemoglobin testing was routine in theatre recovery (13% [95%CI:6-20%]). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors are associated with patient outcomes up to 120 days after a hip fracture, these factors if causal should be targeted by service improvement initiatives to reduce variability, improve hospital hip fracture care, and maximise patient independence.

Immune response to COVID-19 vaccination is attenuated by poor disease control and antimyeloma therapy with vaccine driven divergent T-cell response.

Myeloma patients frequently respond poorly to bacterial and viral vaccination. A few studies have reported poor humoral immune responses in myeloma patients to COVID-19 vaccination. Using a prospective study of myeloma patients in the UK Rudy study cohort, we assessed humoral and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) cellular immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination post second COVID-19 vaccine administration. We report data from 214 adults with myeloma (n = 204) or smouldering myeloma (n = 10) who provided blood samples at least three weeks after second vaccine dose. Positive Anti-spike antibody levels (> 50 iu/ml) were detected in 189/203 (92.7%), positive IGRA responses were seen in 97/158 (61.4%) myeloma patients. Only 10/158 (6.3%) patients were identified to have both a negative IGRA and negative anti-spike protein antibody response. In all, 95/158 (60.1%) patients produced positive results for both anti-spike protein serology and IGRA. After adjusting for disease severity and myeloma therapy, poor humoral immune response was predicted by male gender. Predictors of poor IGRA included anti-CD38/anti-BCMA (B-cell maturation antigen) therapy and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination. Further work is required to understand the clinical significance of divergent cellular response to vaccination.

Multiple hospital organisational factors are associated with adverse patient outcomes post-hip fracture in England and Wales: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite established standards and guidelines, substantial variation remains in the delivery of hip fracture care across the United Kingdom. We aimed to determine which hospital-level organisational factors predict adverse patient outcomes in the months following hip fracture. METHODS: We examined a national record-linkage cohort of 178,757 patients aged ≥60 years who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales in 2016-19. Patient-level hospital admissions datasets, National Hip Fracture Database and mortality data were linked to metrics from 18 hospital-level organisational-level audits and reports. Multilevel models identified organisational factors, independent of patient case-mix, associated with three patient outcomes: length of hospital stay (LOS), 30-day all-cause mortality and emergency 30-day readmission. RESULTS: Across hospitals mean LOS ranged from 12 to 41.9 days, mean 30-day mortality from 3.7 to 10.4% and mean readmission rates from 3.7 to 30.3%, overall means were 21.4 days, 7.3% and 15.3%, respectively. In all, 22 organisational factors were independently associated with LOS; e.g. a hospital's ability to mobilise >90% of patients promptly after surgery predicted a 2-day shorter LOS (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-2.6). Ten organisational factors were independently associated with 30-day mortality; e.g. discussion of patient experience feedback at clinical governance meetings and provision of prompt surgery to >80% of patients were each associated with 10% lower mortality (95%CI: 5-15%). Nine organisational factors were independently associated with readmissions; e.g. readmissions were 17% lower if hospitals reported how soon community therapy would start after discharge (95%CI: 9-24%). CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of hip fracture care should be reliable and equitable across the country. We have identified multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors associated with important patient outcomes following hip fracture.

1q24 deletion syndrome. Two cases and new insights into genotype-phenotype correlations.

1q24q25 deletions cause a distinctive phenotype including proportionate short stature, microcephaly, brachydactyly, dysmorphic facial features and intellectual disability. We present a mother and son who have a 672 kb microdeletion at 1q24q25. They have the typical skeletal features previously described but do not have any associated intellectual disability. We compare the genes within our patients' deletion to those in the deletions of previously reported cases. This indicates two genes that may be implicated in the intellectual disability usually associated with this deletion syndrome; PIGC and C1orf105. In addition, our cases provide supporting evidence to recent published work suggesting that the skeletal features may be linked to the microRNAs miR199 and miR214, encoded within intron 14 of the Dynamin-3 gene.

Degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease osteochondrosis intervertebralis in Europe: prevalence, geographic variation and radiological correlates in men and women aged 50 and over.

Objectives: To assess the prevalences across Europe of radiological indices of degenerative inter-vertebral disc disease (DDD); and to quantify their associations with, age, sex, physical anthropometry, areal BMD (aBMD) and change in aBMD with time. Methods: In the population-based European Prospective Osteoporosis Study, 27 age-stratified samples of men and women from across the continent aged 50+ years had standardized lateral radiographs of the lumbar and thoracic spine to evaluate the severity of DDD, using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale. Measurements of anterior, mid-body and posterior vertebral heights on all assessed vertebrae from T4 to L4 were used to generate indices of end-plate curvature. Results: Images from 10 132 participants (56% female, mean age 63.9 years) passed quality checks. Overall, 47% of men and women had DDD grade 3 or more in the lumbar spine and 36% in both thoracic and lumbar spine. Risk ratios for DDD grades 3 and 4, adjusted for age and anthropometric determinants, varied across a three-fold range between centres, yet prevalences were highly correlated in men and women. DDD was associated with flattened, non-ovoid inter-vertebral disc spaces. KL grade 4 and loss of inter-vertebral disc space were associated with higher spine aBMD. Conclusion: KL grades 3 and 4 are often used clinically to categorize radiological DDD. Highly variable European prevalences of radiologically defined DDD grades 3+ along with the large effects of age may have growing and geographically unequal health and economic impacts as the population ages. These data encourage further studies of potential genetic and environmental causes.

Glucocorticoids induce specific ion-channel-mediated toxicity in human rotator cuff tendon: a mechanism underpinning the ultimately deleterious effect of steroid injection in tendinopathy?

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoid injection (GCI) and surgical rotator cuff repair are two widely used treatments for rotator cuff tendinopathy. Little is known about the way in which medical and surgical treatments affect the human rotator cuff tendon in vivo. We assessed the histological and immunohistochemical effects of these common treatments on the rotator cuff tendon. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Supraspinatus tendon biopsies were taken before and after treatment from 12 patients undergoing GCI and 8 patients undergoing surgical rotator cuff repair. All patients were symptomatic and none of the patients undergoing local GCI had full thickness tears of the rotator cuff. The tendon tissue was then analysed using histological techniques and immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in nuclei count and vascularity after rotator cuff repair and not after GCI (both p=0.008). Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) and cell proliferation were only increased after rotator cuff repair (both p=0.03) and not GCI. The ionotropic N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor 1 (NMDAR1) glutamate receptor was only increased after GCI and not rotator cuff repair (p=0.016). An increase in glutamate was seen in both groups following treatment (both p=0.04), while an increase in the receptor metabotropic glutamate receptor 7 (mGluR7) was only seen after rotator cuff repair (p=0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The increases in cell proliferation, vascularity and HIF-1α after surgical rotator cuff repair appear consistent with a proliferative healing response, and these features are not seen after GCI. The increase in the glutamate receptor NMDAR1 after GCI raises concerns about the potential excitotoxic tendon damage that may result from this common treatment.

Fusion of 3D ultrasound images of the fetal femur improves boundary definition and volume measurement.

OBJECTIVE: To combine multiple 3D volumes of the same fetal femur into one composite image data set using image registration and wavelet-based fusion. Fused and single data sets were compared in terms of image quality and femur volume (FV) measurement repeatability. METHOD: In healthy pregnant volunteers, six volumes of the same femur were acquired and fused into a composite data set. Image quality scores were given to the fused and single data sets by an independent assessor in a blinded fashion; repeatability of FV measurement was assessed using coefficients of variation (CV), intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Fusion was successful in 24 out of 25 cases. Median image quality score was 7/10 in fused data sets, compared to 6/10 in single data sets (p = 0.096). Repeatability of FV measurement was better in fused data sets (intraobserver CV 4.6% and ICC 0.987; interobserver CV 4.9%, ICC 0.985) compared to single ones (intraobserver CV 5.8%, ICC 0.977; interobserver CV 10.0%, ICC 0.931). The measured FV was significantly higher in fused data sets (mean FV 1.7 vs. 1.3 ml, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Image registration and wavelet-based fusion can improve image quality and FV repeatability; it also results in an increased FV measurement.

Protocol of a randomised trial of teriparatide followed by zoledronic acid to reduce fracture risk in adults with osteogenesis imperfecta.

INTRODUCTION: Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a rare genetic disease associated with multiple fractures throughout life. It is often treated with osteoporosis medications but their effectiveness at preventing fractures is unknown. The Treatment of Osteogenesis Imperfecta with Parathyroid Hormone and Zoledronic Acid trial will determine if therapy with teriparatide (TPTD) followed by zoledronic acid (ZA) can reduce the risk of clinical fractures in OI. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Individuals aged ≥18 years with a clinical diagnosis of OI are eligible to take part. At baseline, participants will undergo a spine X-ray, and have bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the spine and hip. Information on previous fractures and previous bone targeted treatments will be collected. Questionnaires will be completed to assess pain and other aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Participants will be randomised to receive a 2-year course of TPTD injections 20 µg daily followed by a single intravenous infusion of 5 mg ZA, or to receive standard care, which will exclude the use of bone anabolic drugs. Participants will be followed up annually, have a repeat DXA at 2 years and at the end of study. Spine X-rays will be repeated at the end of study. The duration of follow-up will range between 2 and 8 years. The primary endpoint will be new clinical fractures confirmed by X-ray or other imaging. Secondary endpoints will include participant reported fractures, BMD and changes in pain and HRQoL. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study received ethical approval in December 2016. Following completion of the trial, a manuscript will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. The results will inform clinical practice by determining if TPTD/ZA can reduce the risk of fractures in OI compared with standard care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15313991.

Organisational factors associated with hospital costs and patient mortality in the 365 days following hip fracture in England and Wales (REDUCE): a record-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture care delivery varies between hospitals, which might explain variations in patient outcomes and health costs. The aim of this study was to identify hospital-level organisational factors associated with long-term patient outcomes and costs after hip fracture. METHODS: REDUCE was a record-linkage cohort study in which national databases for all patients aged 60 years and older who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales were linked with hospital metrics from 18 organisational data sources. Multilevel models identified organisational factors associated with the case-mix adjusted primary outcomes: cumulative all-cause mortality, days spent in hospital, and inpatient costs over 365 days after hip fracture. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2019, 178 757 patients with an index hip fracture were identified from 172 hospitals in England and Wales. 126 278 (70·6%) were female, 52 479 (29·4%) were male, and median age was 84 years (IQR 77-89) in England and 83 years (77-89) in Wales. 365 days after hip fracture, 50 354 (28·2%) patients had died. Patients spent a median 21 days (IQR 11-41) in hospital, incurring costs of £14 642 (95% CI 14 600-14 683) per patient, ranging from £10 867 (SD 5880) to £23 188 (17 223) between hospitals. 11 organisational factors were independently associated with mortality, 24 with number of days in hospital, and 25 with inpatient costs. Having all patients assessed by an orthogeriatrician within 72 h of admission was associated with a mean cost saving of £529 (95% CI 148-910) per patient and a lower 365-day mortality (odds ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·76-0·94]). Consultant orthogeriatrician attendance at clinical governance meetings was associated with cost savings of £356 (95% CI 188-525) and 1·47 fewer days (95% CI 0·89-2·05) in the hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture per patient. The provision of physiotherapy to patients on weekends was associated with a cost saving of £676 (95% CI 67-1285) per patient and with 2·32 fewer days (0·35-4·29) in hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture. INTERPRETATION: Multiple, potentially modifiable hospital-level organisational factors associated with important clinical outcomes and inpatient costs were identified that should inform initiatives to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of hip fracture services. FUNDING: Versus Arthritis.

Benefit of burosumab in adults with X-linked hypophosphataemia (XLH) is maintained with long-term treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To report the impact of continued burosumab treatment on clinical laboratory tests of efficacy, patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and ambulatory function in adults with X-linked hypophosphataemia who continued from a 96-week phase 3 study into a 48-week open-label extension. METHODS: Eligible participants from the phase 3 study continued on the burosumab regimen received at the end of the phase 3 study for a further 48 weeks (n=31). Some (not all) received compassionate burosumab treatment between the two studies (a period of 6-18 months). The primary efficacy outcome was fasting serum phosphate concentration; secondary outcomes were serum 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D concentration, renal phosphate reabsorption, PROs and ambulatory function. RESULTS: Improvements in fasting serum phosphate, serum 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D and renal phosphate reabsorption at 96 weeks were maintained through the 48-week extension. Improvements were also maintained in stiffness and physical function measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, pain and fatigue endpoints measuring using the Brief Pain Inventory short-form and Brief Pain Inventory, respectively, and in ambulatory function (6-Minute Walk Test).A post-hoc exploratory analysis exploring outcomes in participants who discontinued burosumab treatment between the studies (n=7) and those who received at least one dose (n=23) indicated that the benefits of burosumab on clinical laboratory tests of efficacy, PROs and ambulatory function may be lost when treatment is interrupted but recover over time when treatment is reinstated. CONCLUSION: Continued treatment with burosumab appears necessary for sustained clinical benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Phase 3: NCT02526160; open-label extension: NCT03920072.

Sphenoidal fontanelle area measurement on rendered three-dimensional ultrasound.

OBJECTIVE: Rendered three-dimensional images of the fetal cranial vault permit the identification of sutures and measurement of the fontanelle surface area. The objective of this study was to establish the feasibility and repeatability of sphenoidal fontanelle area measurement. METHOD: Head volumes were obtained using the biparietal diameter as the reference plane. These were displayed with maximum rendering and the surface area of the sphenoidal fontanelle was measured by one operator. Feasibility was expressed as the percentage of scans with a successful measurement at different gestational ages. Repeatability was expressed as coefficient of variation (CV), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Thirty women underwent 141 scans. Feasibility of sphenoidal fontanelle measurement is over 90% before 26 weeks, but drops gradually thereafter and becomes 0% at 34 weeks. Intraobserver repeatability of measurement on the same scan image demonstrated CV = 17.5% and ICC = 0.883; however, when measuring a newly acquired volume, the repeatability is poor, CV = 30.7% and ICC = 0.649. CONCLUSION: Although it is feasible to visualize the sphenoidal fontanelle on rendered three dimensions, its surface area measurement is not reliable for clinical use. There is potential to overestimate repeatability when remeasuring the same volume.

An Expert Perspective on Phosphate Dysregulation With a Focus on Chronic Hypophosphatemia.

Because of their rarity, diseases characterized by chronic hypophosphatemia can be underrecognized and suboptimally managed, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. Moreover, serum phosphate may not be measured routinely in primary care practice. Authors participated in several working sessions to advance the understanding of phosphate homeostasis and the causes, consequences, and clinical implications of chronic hypophosphatemia. Phosphate levels are regulated from birth to adulthood. Dysregulation of phosphate homeostasis can result in hypophosphatemia, which becomes chronic if phosphate levels cannot be normalized. Chronic hypophosphatemia may be underrecognized as serum phosphate measurement is not always part of routine analysis in the primary care setting and results might be misinterpreted, for instance, due to age-specific differences not being accounted for and circadian variations. Clinical consequences of chronic hypophosphatemia involve disordered endocrine regulation, affect multiple organ systems, and vary depending on patient age and the underlying disorder. Signs and symptoms of chronic hypophosphatemic diseases that manifest during childhood or adolescence persist into adulthood if the disease is inadequately managed, resulting in an accumulation of clinical deficits and a progressive, debilitating impact on quality of life. Early identification and diagnosis of patients with chronic hypophosphatemia is crucial, and clinical management should be started as soon as possible to maximize the likelihood of improving health outcomes. Furthermore, in the absence of a universally accepted description for "chronic hypophosphatemia," a definition is proposed here that aims to raise awareness of these diseases, facilitate diagnosis, and guide optimal phosphate management strategies by improving monitoring and assessment of patient response to treatment. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Assessing a 12-month course of oral alendronate for adults with avascular necrosis of the hip: MANTIS RCT with internal pilot.

BACKGROUND: People with avascular necrosis of the hip have very limited treatment options currently available to stop the progression of this disease; this often results in the need for a hip replacement. There is some weak evidence that a class of drugs called bisphosphonates may delay the course of the disease, and this trial was commissioned and set up to provide robust evidence regarding the use of bisphosphonates in adults aged ≥ 18 years with this condition. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the Managing Avascular Necrosis Treatments: an Interventional Study ( MANTIS ) trial was to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a 12-month course of alendronate in the treatment of avascular necrosis. DESIGN: This was a 66-month, definitive, multisite, two-arm, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, with an internal pilot phase. SETTING: Eight secondary care NHS hospitals across the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Planned trial size - 280 adult patients with avascular necrosis. INTERVENTION: Participants in the intervention group received 70 mg of alendronate (an oral bisphosphonate) weekly for 12 months. MAIN OUTCOMES: The main outcomes were Oxford Hip Score at 12 months (short-term outcome) and the time to decision that a hip replacement is required at 36 months (long-term outcome). RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were recruited and randomised to receive either the intervention drug, alendronate, or a placebo-matched tablet. LIMITATIONS: This trial was principally limited by low disease prevalence. Other limitations included the late disease stage at which participants were identified and the rapid progression of the disease. FUTURE WORK: This trial was limited by a low recruitment rate. Avascular necrosis of the hip should be treated as a rare disease. Future trials would need to recruit many more sites and recruit over a longer time period, and, for this reason, a registry may provide a more effective means of collecting data pertaining to this disease. CONCLUSIONS: The MANTIS trial was terminated at the end of the pilot phase, because it did not meet its go/no-go criteria. The main issue was a poor recruitment rate, owing to a lower than expected disease prevalence and difficulties in identifying the condition at a sufficiently early stage. Those patients who were identified and screened either were too advanced in their disease progression or were already taking medication. We would not recommend that a short-term interventional study is conducted on this condition until its prevalence, geographic foci and natural history and better understood. The difficulty of acquiring this understanding is likely to be a barrier in most health-care markets. One means of developing this understanding would be the introduction of a database/registry for patients suffering from avascular necrosis of the hip. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered as ISRCTN14015902. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 43. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT WAS THE QUESTION?: The Managing Avascular Necrosis Treatments: an Interventional Study ( MANTIS ) trial was designed to compare ways of treating patients with avascular necrosis who are seeking to slow down the deterioration of their condition. Alendronate is a drug routinely available across the NHS in both tablet and injection form, and doctors and scientists believe that it might prevent ongoing hip deterioration and result in fewer patients requiring a total hip replacement. WHAT DID WE DO?: This trial attempted to compare alendronate taken as a tablet with an identical-looking tablet that did not contain any of the drug (a placebo) to find out if alendronate reduced the number of patients requiring a hip replacement and having pain (compared with patients who did not get alendronate). WHAT DID WE FIND?: Patients were willing to participate in the trial but we were able to recruit only a small number to the study. The main reason for this was difficulty in identifying potentially suitable patients and approaching them at the right point in their medical care. This was more challenging than anticipated, particularly because the NHS sites and professionals that patients with this condition seek out are extremely variable in the UK. It was also difficult to locate and identify patients with the condition at an early enough stage, and before they had already started taking the drug. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: More information on patients with this rare condition, such as NHS referral pathways, and an understanding of how the condition progresses may help to improve our understanding of this patient group. This information could also help us determine whether or not there is scope to carry out the study in a different way that might enable these patients to be more easily identified.

Increased development of radiographic hip osteoarthritis in individuals with high bone mass: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with high bone mass (HBM) have a greater odds of prevalent radiographic hip osteoarthritis (OA), reflecting an association with bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes (e.g. osteophytosis, subchondral sclerosis). As the role of bone mineral density (BMD) in hip OA progression is unclear, we aimed to determine if individuals with HBM have increased incidence and/or progression of bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes. METHODS: We analysed an adult cohort with and without HBM (L1 and/or total hip BMD Z-score > + 3.2) with pelvic radiographs collected at baseline and 8-year follow-up. Sub-phenotypes were graded using the OARSI atlas. Superior/inferior acetabular/femoral osteophyte and medial/superior joint space narrowing (JSN) grades were summed and Δosteophyte and ΔJSN derived. Pain and functional limitations were quantified using the WOMAC questionnaire. Associations between HBM status and change in OA sub-phenotypes were determined using multivariable linear/logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, height, total body fat mass, follow-up time and baseline sub-phenotype grade. Generalised estimating equations accounted for individual-level clustering. RESULTS: Of 136 individuals, 62% had HBM at baseline, 72% were female and mean (SD) age was 59 (10) years. HBM was positively associated with both Δosteophytes and ΔJSN (adjusted mean grade differences between individuals with and without HBM ßosteophyte = 0.30 [0.01, 0.58], p = 0.019 and ßJSN = 0.10 [0.01, 0.18], p = 0.019). Incident subchondral sclerosis was rare. HBM individuals had higher WOMAC hip functional limitation scores (ß = 8.3 [0.7, 15.98], p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: HBM is associated with the worsening of hip osteophytes and JSN over an average of 8 years, as well as increased hip pain and functional limitation.

Predicting Imminent Fractures in Patients With a Recent Fracture or Starting Oral Bisphosphonate Therapy: Development and International Validation of Prognostic Models.

The availability of anti-osteoporosis medications with rapid onset and high potency requires tools to identify patients at high imminent fracture risk (IFR). There are few tools that predict a patient's IFR. We aimed to develop and validate tools for patients with a recent fracture and for patients initiating oral bisphosphonate therapy. Models for two separate cohorts, those with incident fragility fracture (IFx) and with incident oral bisphosphonate prescription (OBP), were developed in primary care records from Spain (SIDIAP database), UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD), and Denmark (Danish Health Registries). Separate models were developed for hip, major, and any fracture outcomes. Only variables present in all databases were included in Lasso regression models for the development and logistic regression models for external validation. Discrimination was tested using area under curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed using observed versus predicted risk plots stratified by age, sex, and previous fracture history. The development analyses included 35,526 individuals in the IFx and 41,401 in the OBP cohorts, with 671,094 in IFx and 330,256 in OBP for the validation analyses. Both the IFx and OBP models demonstrated similarly good performance for hip fracture at 1 year (with AUCs of 0.79 [95% CI 0.75 to 0.82] and 0.87 [0.83 to 0.91] in Spain, 0.71 [0.71 to 0.72] and 0.73 [0.72 to 0.74] in the UK, and 0.70 [0.70 to 0.70] and 0.69 [0.68 to 0.70] in Denmark), and lower discrimination for major osteoporotic and any fracture sites. Calibration was good across all three countries. Discrimination and calibration for the 2-year models was similar. The proposed IFR prediction models could be used to identify more precisely patients at high imminent risk of fracture and inform anti-osteoporosis treatment selection. The freely available model parameters permit local validation and implementation. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

REducing unwarranted variation in the Delivery of high qUality hip fraCture services in England and Wales (REDUCE): protocol for a mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Substantial variation in the delivery of hip fracture care, and patient outcomes persists between hospitals, despite established UK national standards and guidelines. Patients' outcomes are partly explained by patient-level risk factors, but it is hypothesised that organisational-level factors account for the persistence of unwarranted variation in outcomes. The mixed-methods REducing unwarranted variation in the Delivery of high qUality hip fraCture services in England and Wales (REDUCE) study, aims to determine key organisational factors to target to improve patient care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Quantitative analysis will assess the outcomes of patients treated at 172 hospitals in England and Wales (2016-2019) using National Hip Fracture Database data combined with English Hospital Episodes Statistics; Patient Episode Database for Wales; Civil Registration (deaths) and multiple organisational-level audits to characterise each service provider. Statistical analyses will identify which organisational factors explain variation in patient outcomes, and typify care pathways with high-quality consistent patient outcomes. Documentary analysis of 20 anonymised British Orthopaedic Association hospital-initiated peer-review reports, and qualitative interviews with staff from four diverse UK hospitals providing hip fracture care, will identify barriers and facilitators to care delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a major challenge to the resilience of services and interviews will explore strategies used to adapt and innovate. This system-wide understanding will inform the development, in partnership with key national stakeholders, of an 'Implementation Toolkit' to inform and improve commissioning and delivery of hip fracture services. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved: quantitative study by London, City and East Research Ethics Committee (20/LO/0101); and qualitative study by Faculty of Health Sciences University of Bristol Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 108284), National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority (20/HRA/71) and each NHS Trust provided Research and Development approval. Findings will be disseminated through scientific conferences, peer-reviewed journals and online workshops.