Common mechanisms explain nitrogen-dependent growth of Arctic shrubs over three decades despite heterogeneous trends and declines in soil nitrogen availability.

Heterogeneity has been observed in the responses of Arctic shrubs to climate variability over recent decades, which may reflect landscape-scale variability in belowground resources. At a northern fringe of tall shrub expansion (Yuribei, Yamal Peninsula, Russia), we sought to determine the mechanisms relating nitrogen (N) limitation to shrub growth over decadal time. We analysed the ratio of 15 N to 14 N isotopes in wood rings of 10 Salix lanata individuals (399 measurements) to reconstruct annual point-based bioavailable N between 1980 and 2013. We applied a model-fitting/model-selection approach with a suite of competing ecological models to assess the most-likely mechanisms that explain each shrub's individual time-series. Shrub δ15 N time-series indicated declining (seven shrubs), increasing (two shrubs) and no trend (one shrub) in N availability. The most appropriate model for all shrubs included N-dependent growth of linear rather than saturating form. Inclusion of plant-soil feedbacks better explained ring width and δ15 N for eight of 10 individuals. Although N trajectories were individualistic, common mechanisms of varying strength confirmed the N-dependency of shrub growth. The linear mechanism may reflect intense scavenging of scarce N; the importance of plant-soil feedbacks suggests that shrubs subvert the microbial bottleneck by actively controlling their environment.

Resilience: nitrogen limitation, mycorrhiza and long-term palaeoecological plant-nutrient dynamics.

Ecosystem dynamics are driven by both biotic and abiotic processes, and perturbations can push ecosystems into novel dynamical regimes. Plant-plant, plant-soil and mycorrhizal associations all affect plant ecosystem dynamics; however, the direction and magnitude of these effects vary by context and their contribution to ecosystem resilience over long time periods remains unknown. Here, using a mathematical framework, we investigate the effects of plant feedbacks and mycorrhiza on plant-nutrient interactions. We show evidence for strong nutrient controlled feedbacks, moderation by mycorrhiza and influence on ecological resilience. We use this model to investigate the resilience of a longitudinal palaeoecological birch-δ15N interaction to plant-soil feedbacks and mycorrhizal associations. The birch-δ15N system demonstrated high levels of resilience. Mycorrhiza were predicted to increase resilience by supporting plant-nitrogen uptake and immobilizing excess nitrogen; in contrast, long-term enrichment in available nitrogen by plant-soil feedbacks is expected to decrease ecological resilience.

Changes in global nitrogen cycling during the Holocene epoch.

Human activities have doubled the pre-industrial supply of reactive nitrogen on Earth, and future rates of increase are expected to accelerate. Yet little is known about the capacity of the biosphere to buffer increased nitrogen influx. Past changes in global ecosystems following deglaciation at the end of the Pleistocene epoch provide an opportunity to understand better how nitrogen cycling in the terrestrial biosphere responded to changes in carbon cycling. We analysed published records of stable nitrogen isotopic values (δ(15)N) in sediments from 86 lakes on six continents. Here we show that the value of sedimentary δ(15)N declined from 15,000 years before present to 7,056 ± 597 years before present, a period of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and terrestrial carbon accumulation. Comparison of the nitrogen isotope record with concomitant carbon accumulation on land and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere suggests millennia of declining nitrogen availability in terrestrial ecosystems during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition around 11,000 years before present. In contrast, we do not observe a consistent change in global sedimentary δ(15)N values during the past 500 years, despite the potential effects of changing temperature and nitrogen influx from anthropogenic sources. We propose that the lack of a single response may indicate that modern increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and net carbon sequestration in the biosphere have the potential to offset recent increased supplies of reactive nitrogen in some ecosystems.

Plant controls on Late Quaternary whole ecosystem structure and function.

Plants and animals influence biomass production and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems; however, their relative importance remains unclear. We assessed the extent to which mega-herbivore species controlled plant community composition and nutrient cycling, relative to other factors during and after the Late Quaternary extinction event in Britain and Ireland, when two-thirds of the region's mega-herbivore species went extinct. Warmer temperatures, plant-soil and plant-plant interactions, and reduced burning contributed to the expansion of woody plants and declining nitrogen availability in our five study ecosystems. Shrub biomass was consistently one of the strongest predictors of ecosystem change, equalling or exceeding the effects of other biotic and abiotic factors. In contrast, there was relatively little evidence for mega-herbivore control on plant community composition and nitrogen availability. The ability of plants to determine the fate of terrestrial ecosystems during periods of global environmental change may therefore be greater than previously thought.

Remote assessment of locally important ecological features across landscapes: how representative of reality?

The local ecological footprinting tool (LEFT) uses globally available databases, modeling, and algorithms to, remotely assess locally important ecological features across landscapes based on five criteria: biodiversity (beta-diversity), vulnerability (threatened species), fragmentation, connectivity, and resilience. This approach can be applied to terrestrial landscapes at a 300-m resolution within a given target area. Input is minimal (latitude and longitude) and output is a computer-generated report and series of maps that both individually and synthetically depict the relative value of each ecological criteria. A key question for any such tool, however, is how representative is the remotely obtained output compared to what is on the ground. Here, we present the results from comparing remotely- vs. field-generated outputs from the LEFT tool on two distinct study areas for beta-diversity and distribution of threatened species (vulnerability), the two fields computed by LEFT for which such an approach is feasible. The comparison method consists of a multivariate measure of similarity between two fields based on discrete wavelet transforms, and reveals consistent agreement across a wide range of spatial scales. These results suggest that remote assessment tools such as LEFT hold great potential for determining key ecological features across landscapes and for being utilized in preplanning biodiversity assessment tools.

Seasonal weather impacts wine quality in Bordeaux.

Critics judge quality based upon subjective characteristics of wine. These judgments are converted by critics into quantitative scores, which allow for comparison of vintages. This paper uses high resolution discrete and continuous time-based weather estimates at both a local and regional level to determine the role of weather conditions on producing high quality Bordeaux vintages, as determined by critics scores. By using discrete-time weather variables across local AOCs, this study reveals climate-quality relationships across the whole year, including previously ignored season effects. By using continuous time weather variables, we reinforce the evidence for these local effects by finding higher quality wine is made in years with higher rainfall, warmer temperatures; and earlier, shorter seasons. We propose management impacts of our results and suggest that as the climate continues to change, the quality of Bordeaux wines may continue to improve.

Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland.

• The extent to which plants exert an influence over ecosystem processes, such as nitrogen cycling and fire regimes, is still largely unknown. It is also unclear how such processes may be dependent on the prevailing environmental conditions. • Here, we applied mechanistic models of plant-environment interactions to palaeoecological time series data to determine the most likely functional relationships of Empetrum (crowberry) and Betula (birch) with millennial-scale changes in climate, fire activity, nitrogen cycling and herbivore density in an Irish heathland. • Herbivory and fire activity preferentially removed Betula from the landscape. Empetrum had a positive feedback on fire activity, but the effect of Betula was slightly negative. Nitrogen cycling was not strongly controlled by plant population dynamics. Betula had a greater temperature-dependent population growth rate than Empetrum; thus climate warming promoted Betula expansion into the heathland and this led to reduced fire activity and greater herbivory, which further reinforced Betula dominance. • Differences in population growth response to warming were responsible for an observed shift to an alternative community state with contrasting forms of ecosystem functioning. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms--which often protect plant communities from invasion--may therefore be sensitive to climate warming, particularly in arctic regions that are dominated by cold-adapted plant populations.

Ecotoxicity of microplastics to freshwater biota: Considering exposure and hazard across trophic levels.

In contrast to marine ecosystems, the toxicity impact of microplastics in freshwater environments is poorly understood. This contribution reviews the literature on the range of effects of microplastics across and between trophic levels within the freshwater environment, including biofilms, macrophytes, phytoplankton, invertebrates, fish and amphibians. While there is supporting evidence for toxicity in some species e.g. growth reduction for photoautotrophs, increased mortality for some invertebrates, genetic changes in amphibians, and cell internalization of microplastics and nanoplastics in fish; other studies show that it is uncertain whether microplastics can have detrimental long-term impacts on ecosystems. Some taxa have yet to be studied e.g. benthic diatoms, while only 12% of publications on microplastics in freshwater, demonstrate trophic transfer in foodwebs. The fact that just 2% of publications focus on microplastics colonized by biofilms is hugely concerning given the cascading detrimental effects this could have on freshwater ecosystem function. Multiple additional stressors including environmental change (temperature rises and invasive species) and contaminants of anthropogenic origin (antibiotics, metals, pesticides and endocrine disruptors) will likely exacerbate negative interactions between microplastics and freshwater organisms, with potentially significant damaging consequences to freshwater ecosystems and foodwebs.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Stability in ecosystem functioning across a climatic threshold and contrasting forest regimes.

Classical ecological theory predicts that changes in the availability of essential resources such as nitrogen should lead to changes in plant community composition due to differences in species-specific nutrient requirements. What remains unknown, however, is the extent to which climate change will alter the relationship between plant communities and the nitrogen cycle. During intervals of climate change, do changes in nitrogen cycling lead to vegetation change or do changes in community composition alter the nitrogen dynamics? We used long-term ecological data to determine the role of nitrogen availability in changes of forest species composition under a rapidly changing climate during the early Holocene (16k to 8k cal. yrs. BP). A statistical computational analysis of ecological data spanning 8,000 years showed that secondary succession from a coniferous to deciduous forest occurred independently of changes in the nitrogen cycle. As oak replaced pine under a warming climate, nitrogen cycling rates increased. Interestingly, the mechanism by which the species interacted with nitrogen remained stable across this threshold change in climate and in the dominant tree species. This suggests that changes in tree population density over successional time scales are not driven by nitrogen availability. Thus, current models of forest succession that incorporate the effects of available nitrogen may be over-estimating tree population responses to changes in this resource, which may result in biased predictions of future forest dynamics under climate warming.