Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) differences within and between states by race/ethnicity have not been examined. OBJECTIVE: To estimate LE for selected race/ethnicity groups in states from 1990 to 2019. DESIGN: Cross-sectional time-series analysis. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Deidentified death records and Census data were used to construct regression models with smoothed time series of mortality from 1990 to 2019. MEASUREMENTS: LE at birth, by sex and year, for subgroups of people reporting Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, or non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Disparities in LE across states were 8.0 years for females and 12.2 years for males in 1990 and 7.9 years for females and 7.8 years for males in 2019. When race/ethnicity groups were accounted for, disparities across states were 20.7 years for females and 24.5 years for males in 1990, decreasing to 18.5 years for females and 23.7 years for males in 2019. Disparities across states increased within each race/ethnicity group between 1990 and 2019, with the largest increase for non-Hispanic White males and the smallest for Hispanic females. The disparity between race/ethnicity groups within states decreased for most of the 23 states with estimates for all 3 groups but increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. LIMITATION: Because of small sample size, LE was not estimated for 37 of 153 state-race/ethnicity groups. CONCLUSION: Disparity in LE across states was greater when race/ethnicity groups were considered. Disparities across all state-race/ethnicity groups in general have decreased over the past 3 decades. Within each race/ethnicity group, disparities across states have increased. Although racial/ethnic disparities decreased in most of the 23 states for which LE was estimated for all 3 groups, they increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Trends in State-Level Maternal Mortality by Racial and Ethnic Group in the United States.

Importance: Evidence suggests that maternal mortality has been increasing in the US. Comprehensive estimates do not exist. Long-term trends in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) for all states by racial and ethnic groups were estimated. Objective: To quantify trends in MMRs (maternal deaths per 100 000 live births) by state for 5 mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups using a bayesian extension of the generalized linear model network. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational study using vital registration and census data from 1999 to 2019 in the US. Pregnant or recently pregnant individuals aged 10 to 54 years were included. Main Outcomes and Measures: MMRs. Results: In 2019, MMRs in most states were higher among American Indian and Alaska Native and Black populations than among Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; Hispanic; and White populations. Between 1999 and 2019, observed median state MMRs increased from 14.0 (IQR, 5.7-23.9) to 49.2 (IQR, 14.4-88.0) among the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 26.7 (IQR, 18.3-32.9) to 55.4 (IQR, 31.6-74.5) among the Black population, 9.6 (IQR, 5.7-12.6) to 20.9 (IQR, 12.1-32.8) among the Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander population, 9.6 (IQR, 6.9-11.6) to 19.1 (IQR, 11.6-24.9) among the Hispanic population, and 9.4 (IQR, 7.4-11.4) to 26.3 (IQR, 20.3-33.3) among the White population. In each year between 1999 and 2019, the Black population had the highest median state MMR. The American Indian and Alaska Native population had the largest increases in median state MMRs between 1999 and 2019. Since 1999, the median of state MMRs has increased for all racial and ethnic groups in the US and the American Indian and Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; and Black populations each observed their highest median state MMRs in 2019. Conclusion and Relevance: While maternal mortality remains unacceptably high among all racial and ethnic groups in the US, American Indian and Alaska Native and Black individuals are at increased risk, particularly in several states where these inequities had not been previously highlighted. Median state MMRs for the American Indian and Alaska Native and Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander populations continue to increase, even after the adoption of a pregnancy checkbox on death certificates. Median state MMR for the Black population remains the highest in the US. Comprehensive mortality surveillance for all states via vital registration identifies states and racial and ethnic groups with the greatest potential to improve maternal mortality. Maternal mortality persists as a source of worsening disparities in many US states and prevention efforts during this study period appear to have had a limited impact in addressing this health crisis.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Burden of Stroke in Europe: Thirty-Year Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prediction of stroke impact provides essential information for healthcare planning and priority setting. We aim to estimate 30-year projections of stroke epidemiology in the European Union using multiple modeling approaches. METHODS: Data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years in the European Union between 1990 and 2017 were obtained from the global burden of disease study. Their trends over time were modeled using 3 modeling strategies: linear, Poisson, and exponential regressions-adjusted for the gross domestic product per capita, which reflects the impact of economic development on health status. We used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The 30-year projections up to 2047 were estimated using the best fitting models, with inputs on population projections from the United Nations and gross domestic product per capita prospects from the World Bank. The technique was applied separately by age-sex-country groups for each stroke measure. RESULTS: In 2017, there were 1.12 million incident strokes in the European Union, 9.53 million stroke survivors, 0.46 million deaths, and 7.06 million disability-adjusted life years lost because of stroke. By 2047, we estimated an additional 40 000 incident strokes (+3%) and 2.58 million prevalent cases (+27%). Conversely, 80 000 fewer deaths (-17%) and 2.31 million fewer disability-adjusted life years lost (-33%) are projected. The largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (average annual percentage change, 0.48% and 0.7% respectively), and the greatest reductions in Portugal (-1.57% and -1.3%). Average annual percentage change in mortality rates will range from -2.86% (Estonia) to -0.08% (Lithuania), and disability-adjusted life years' from -2.77% (Estonia) to -0.23% (Romania). CONCLUSIONS: The number of people living with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the European Union, mainly because of population ageing and improved survival rates. Variations are expected to persist between countries showing opportunities for improvements in prevention and case management particularly in Eastern Europe.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS: We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. RESULTS: We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

Participants' Role Expectations in Genetics Research and Re-consent: Revising the Theory and Methods of Mental Models Research Relating to Roles.

The rise of large cohort-based health research that includes genetic components has increased the communication challenges for researchers. Controversies have been amplified over requirements for re-consent, return of results, and privacy protections, among other issues. This study extended research on the impact that the perceived role of "research participant" might have on communication expectations to illuminate research participants' preferences for re-consent. The study employed an online survey of participants in a long-standing cancer genetics registry. Results confirmed previous exploratory findings that research participants endorse multiple mental models of participant roles in research (doctor-patient, collaborator, donor, legal contract, etc.). Regression analyses indicated that high and low salience of different models of the role of research participant are related to different communication expectations. However, the pattern of relationships among roles is relevant. The results of the regression analysis also indicated that preference for mandatory re-consent and its relationship to mental models of roles are related to attitudes of trust, benefits, and informational risks. The discussion identifies implications as including the use of explicit approaches to address role relationships in communication with research participants. It also points to implications for methodological approaches in mental model research.

Methods for Estimating the Global Burden of Cerebrovascular Diseases.

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is a long-standing effort to report consistent and comprehensive measures of disease burden for the world. In this paper, we describe the methods used to estimate the global burden of stroke for the GBD 2013 study. Pathologic subtypes of stroke are modeled separately for two mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories: (1) ischemic stroke and (2) hemorrhagic and other non-ischemic strokes. Acute and chronic strokes are estimated separately. The GBD 2013 study has incorporated large amounts of new data on stroke death rates, incidence and case fatality. Disease modeling methods have been updated to better integrate mortality and incidence data. Future efforts will focus on incorporating data on the regional variation in severity of disability. Stroke remains a new area for disease modeling. A better understanding of stroke incidence, mortality and severity, and how it varies among countries, can help guide priority setting and improve health policy related to this important condition.

Stroke Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Adults Aged 20-64 Years in 1990-2013: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that stroke is increasing as a cause of morbidity and mortality in younger adults, where it carries particular significance for working individuals. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of stroke burden are important for planning stroke prevention and management in younger adults. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their trends for total, ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in the world for 1990-2013 in adults aged 20-64 years. METHODOLOGY: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 methods. All available data on rates of stroke incidence, excess mortality, prevalence and death were collected. Statistical models were used along with country-level covariates to estimate country-specific stroke burden. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to compute years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. RESULTS: In 2013, in younger adults aged 20-64 years, the global prevalence of HS was 3,725,085 cases (95% UI 3,548,098-3,871,018) and IS was 7,258,216 cases (95% UI 6,996,272-7,569,403). Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in absolute numbers and prevalence rates of both HS and IS for younger adults. There were 1,483,707 (95% UI 1,340,579-1,658,929) stroke deaths globally among younger adults but the number of deaths from HS (1,047,735 (95% UI 945,087-1,184,192)) was significantly higher than the number of deaths from IS (435,972 (95% UI 354,018-504,656)). There was a 20.1% (95% UI -23.6 to -10.3) decline in the number of total stroke deaths among younger adults in developed countries but a 36.7% (95% UI 26.3-48.5) increase in developing countries. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults declined significantly in developing countries from 47 (95% UI 42.6-51.7) in 1990 to 39 (95% UI 35.0-43.8) in 2013. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults also declined significantly in developed countries from 33.3 (95% UI 29.8-37.0) in 1990 to 23.5 (95% UI 21.1-26.9) in 2013. A significant decrease in HS death rates for younger adults was seen only in developed countries between 1990 and 2013 (19.8 (95% UI 16.9-22.6) and 13.7 (95% UI 12.1-15.9)) per 100,000). No significant change was detected in IS death rates among younger adults. The total DALYs from all strokes in those aged 20-64 years was 51,429,440 (95% UI 46,561,382-57,320,085). Globally, there was a 24.4% (95% UI 16.6-33.8) increase in total DALY numbers for this age group, with a 20% (95% UI 11.7-31.1) and 37.3% (95% UI 23.4-52.2) increase in HS and IS numbers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in prevalent cases, total deaths and DALYs due to HS and IS in younger adults aged 20-64 years. Death and DALY rates declined in both developed and developing countries but a significant increase in absolute numbers of stroke deaths among younger adults was detected in developing countries. Most of the burden of stroke was in developing countries. In 2013, the greatest burden of stroke among younger adults was due to HS. While the trends in declining death and DALY rates in developing countries are encouraging, these regions still fall far behind those of developed regions of the world. A more aggressive approach toward primary prevention and increased access to adequate healthcare services for stroke is required to substantially narrow these disparities.

Sex Differences in Stroke Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. METHODS: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates. Analysis was performed separately by sex and 5-year age categories for 188 countries. Statistical models were employed to produce globally comprehensive results over time. All rates were age-standardized to a global population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. FINDINGS: In 2013, global ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both sexes (1990 male IS incidence 147.40 (95% UI 137.87-157.66); 1990 female IS incidence 113.31 (95% UI 103.52-123.40)), but the only significant change in IS incidence was among women. Changes in global HS incidence were not statistically significant for males (1990 = 65.31 (95% UI 61.63-69.0), 2013 = 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)), but was significant for females (1990 = 64.892 (95% UI 59.82-68.85), 2013 = 45.48 (95% UI 42.427-48.53)). The number of DALYs related to IS rose from 1990 (male = 16.62 (95% UI 13.27-19.62), female = 17.53 (95% UI 14.08-20.33)) to 2013 (male = 25.22 (95% UI 20.57-29.13), female = 22.21 (95% UI 17.71-25.50)). The number of DALYs associated with HS also rose steadily and was higher than DALYs for IS at each time point (male 1990 = 29.91 (95% UI 25.66-34.54), male 2013 = 37.27 (95% UI 32.29-45.12); female 1990 = 26.05 (95% UI 21.70-30.90), female 2013 = 28.18 (95% UI 23.68-33.80)). INTERPRETATION: Globally, men continue to have a higher incidence of IS than women while significant sex differences in the incidence of HS were not observed. The total health loss due to stroke as measured by DALYs was similar for men and women for both stroke subtypes in 2013, with HS higher than IS. Both IS and HS DALYs show an increasing trend for both men and women since 1990, which is statistically significant only for IS among men. Ongoing monitoring of sex differences in the burden of stroke will be needed to determine if disease rates among men and women continue to diverge. Sex disparities related to stroke will have important clinical and policy implications that can guide funding and resource allocation for national, regional and global health programs.

Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study.

BACKGROUND: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. CONCLUSION: Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Stroke Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Children and Youth Aged 0-19 Years: Data from the Global and Regional Burden of Stroke 2013.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition of stroke as an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Current estimates of global childhood stroke burden and its temporal trends are sparse. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of childhood stroke burden are important for planning research and the resulting evidence-based strategies for stroke prevention and management. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and all stroke types combined globally from 1990 to 2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease 2013 methods. All available data on stroke-related incidence, prevalence, excess mortality and deaths were collected. Statistical models and country-level covariates were employed to produce comprehensive and consistent estimates of prevalence and mortality. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to estimate years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. RESULTS: In 2013, there were 97,792 (95% UI 90,564-106,016) prevalent cases of childhood IS and 67,621 (95% UI 62,899-72,214) prevalent cases of childhood HS, reflecting an increase of approximately 35% in the absolute numbers of prevalent childhood strokes since 1990. There were 33,069 (95% UI 28,627-38,998) deaths and 2,615,118 (95% UI 2,265,801-3,090,822) DALYs due to childhood stroke in 2013 globally, reflecting an approximately 200% decrease in the absolute numbers of death and DALYs in childhood stroke since 1990. Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in the global prevalence rates of childhood IS, as well as significant decreases in the global death rate and DALYs rate of all strokes in those of age 0-19 years. While prevalence rates for childhood IS and HS decreased significantly in developed countries, a decline was seen only in HS, with no change in prevalence rates of IS, in developing countries. The childhood stroke DALY rates in 2013 were 13.3 (95% UI 10.6-17.1) for IS and 92.7 (95% UI 80.5-109.7) for HS per 100,000. While the prevalence of childhood IS compared to childhood HS was similar globally, the death rate and DALY rate of HS was 6- to 7-fold higher than that of IS. In 2013, the prevalence rate of both childhood IS and HS was significantly higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Conversely, both death and DALY rates for all stroke types were significantly lower in developed countries than in developing countries in 2013. Men showed a trend toward higher childhood stroke death rates (1.5 (1.3-1.8) per 100,000) than women (1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100,000) and higher childhood stroke DALY rates (120.1 (100.8-143.4) per 100,000) than women (90.9 (74.6-122.4) per 100,000) globally in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of prevalent childhood strokes, while absolute numbers and rates of both deaths and DALYs declined significantly. The gap in childhood stroke burden between developed and developing countries is closing; however, in 2013, childhood stroke burden in terms of absolute numbers of prevalent strokes, deaths and DALYs remained much higher in developing countries. There is an urgent need to address these disparities with both global and country-level initiatives targeting prevention as well as improved access to acute and chronic stroke care.

Burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe: forecasting incidence and mortality between 2019 and 2050.

Background: Anticipating the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage is crucial for proactive management and building resilience against future health challenges. Prior forecasts are based on population demography and to a lesser extent epidemiological trends. This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors and socio-demographic indicators to forecast the incidence and mortality of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe between 2019 and 2050. Methods: Three intracerebral haemorrhage risk factors identified in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD 2019)-high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index-were utilised to predict the risk-attributable fractions between 2019 and 2050. Disease burden not attributable to these risk factors was then forecasted using time series models (autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as an external predictor. The optimal parameters of ARIMA models were selected for each age-sex-country group based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Different health scenarios were constructed by extending the past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualised rates of change in risk factors and SDI across all location-years, stratified by age and sex groups. A decomposition analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of population size, age composition, and intracerebral haemorrhage risk on the projected changes. Findings: Compared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts an increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe in 2050, with a marginal rise of 0.6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], -7.4% to 9.6%) in incident cases and an 8.9% (-2.8% to 23.6%) increase in mortality, reaching 141.2 (120.6-166.5) thousand and 144.2 (122.9-172.2) thousand respectively. These projections may fluctuate depending on trajectories of the risk factors and SDI; worsened trends could result in increases of 16.7% (8.7%-25.3%) in incidence and 31.2% (17.7%-48%) in mortality, while better trajectories may lead to a 10% (16.4%-2.3%) decrease in intracerebral haemorrhage cases with stabilised mortality. Individuals aged ≥80 years are expected to contribute significantly to the burden, comprising 62.7% of the cases in 2050, up from 40% in 2019, and 72.5% of deaths, up from 50.5%. Country-wide variations were noted in the projected changes, with decreases in the standardised rates across all nations but varying crude rates. The largest relative reductions in counts for both incidence and mortality are expected in Latvia, Bulgaria, and Hungary-ranging from -38.2% to -32.4% and -37.3% to -30.2% respectively. In contrast, the greatest increases for both measures were forecasted in Ireland (45.7% and 74.4%), Luxembourg (45% and 70.7%), and Cyprus (44.5% and 74.2%). The modelled increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage could largely be attributed to population ageing. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive forecast of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe until 2050, presenting different trajectories. The potential increase in the number of people experiencing and dying from intracerebral haemorrhage could have profound implications for both caregiving responsibilities and associated costs. However, forecasts were divergent between different scenarios and among EU countries, signalling the pivotal role of public health initiatives in steering the trajectories. Funding: The European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 754517. The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research (NIHR202339).

State-Level Cardiovascular Mortality Rates Among Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic White Populations, 1990 to 2019.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US, with considerable variation by both state and race and ethnicity group. Consistent, comparable measures of mortality by specific CVD cause at the state level and by race and ethnicity have not previously been available and are necessary for supporting policy decisions aimed at reducing health inequities. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality due to overall CVD and its component causes for 3 mutually exclusive race and ethnicity groups and by state. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used Census data, population surveys, and US vital registration records to estimate cause-specific cardiovascular mortality by state and by the following race and ethnicity groups, defined by the US Office of Management and Budget: Hispanic of any race, non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black), and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White). Data were analyzed from January 2020 to September 2022. Exposures: State of residence at time of death; Hispanic ethnicity and Black or White race. Main Outcomes and Measures: CVD death counts and mortality rates. Results: An estimated 25 397 029 persons died of cardiovascular diseases from 1990 to 2019. The mean (SD) age of individuals was 78.20 (14.01); 13 087 290 individuals (51.53%) were female and 12 309 739 (48.47%) were male; 2 921 650 (11.50%) were Black, 1 159 498 (4.57%) were Hispanic, and 21 315 880 (83.93%) were White. Age-standardized CVD mortality per 100 000 persons in 2019 was 194.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 172.7 to 207.4), 107.7 (95% UI, 92.9 to 121.4), and 153.8 (95% UI, 133.8 to 163.8) among Black, Hispanic, and White populations, respectively. The median (IQR) percentage change across states was smaller for 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 for both White female and White male populations (-6.8 [-10.1 to -4.3] vs -10.2 [-12.9 to -5.9] and -4.6 [-8.6 to -2.5] vs -16.5 [-19.3 to -15.4]). For the Black and Hispanic groups, the percentage change (IQR) was larger for the female populations for the latter time period (-15.1 [-18.9 to -11.7] vs -12.6 [-19.6 to -7.8] and -23.5 [-29.2 to -18.5] vs -8.2 [-17.8 to 5.96]). The converse was observed among male individuals in both groups, with smaller percentage change (IQR) values in 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 (-13.1 [-18.7 to -8.6] vs -18.6 [-25.5 to -14.7] among the Black male population and -20.4 [-25.6 to -15.6] vs -21.5 [-31.1 to -5.7] among the Hispanic male population). There was substantial variability at the state level for death due to total CVD and component causes in 2019 and changes in CVD mortality from 1990 through 2019. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study indicate that CVD mortality varied widely by state and race and ethnicity group. Changes over the time period were not consistent for all groups and varied by cardiovascular subcause. These results highlight ongoing health disparities in cardiovascular mortality.

Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study.

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death worldwide. Using data from published observational studies and controlled trials, we estimated the mean SBP-IHD dose-response function and burden of proof risk function (BPRF), and we calculated a risk outcome score (ROS) and corresponding star rating (one to five). We found a very strong, significant harmful effect of SBP on IHD, with a mean risk-relative to that at 100 mm Hg SBP-of 1.39 (95% uncertainty interval including between-study heterogeneity 1.34-1.44) at 120 mm Hg, 1.81 (1.70-1.93) at 130 mm Hg and 4.48 (3.81-5.26) at 165 mm Hg. The conservative BPRF measure indicated that SBP exposure between 107.5 and 165.0 mm Hg raised risk by 101.36% on average, yielding a ROS of 0.70 and star rating of five. Our analysis shows that IHD risk was already increasing at 120 mm Hg SBP, rising steadily up to 165 mm Hg and increasing less steeply above that point. Our study endorses the need to prioritize and strengthen strategies for screening, to raise awareness of the need for timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and to increase the resources allocated for understanding primordial prevention of elevated blood pressure.

The burden of cardiovascular diseases in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

In Ethiopia, evidence on the national burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. To address this gap, this systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. The age-standardized CVD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates in Ethiopia were 5534 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5310.09 - 5774.0), 3549.6 (95% UI 3229.0 - 3911.9) and 182.63 (95% UI 165.49 - 203.9) per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized CVD prevalence rate in 2017 showed no change. But significant reductions were observed in CVD mortality (54.7%), CVD DALYs (57.7%) and all-cause mortality (53.4%). The top three prevalent CVDs were ischaemic heart disease, rheumatic heart disease and stroke in descending order. The reduction in the mortality rate due to CVDs is slower than for communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional disease mortalities. As a result, CVDs are the leading cause of mortality in Ethiopia. These findings urge Ethiopia to consider CVDs as a priority public health problem.

Trends in Patient Characteristics and COVID-19 In-Hospital Mortality in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: In-hospital mortality rates from COVID-19 are high but appear to be decreasing for selected locations in the United States. It is not known whether this is because of changes in the characteristics of patients being admitted. Objective: To describe changing in-hospital mortality rates over time after accounting for individual patient characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study of 20 736 adults with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who were included in the US American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry and admitted to 107 acute care hospitals in 31 states from March through November 2020. A multiple mixed-effects logistic regression was then used to estimate the odds of in-hospital death adjusted for patient age, sex, body mass index, and medical history as well as vital signs, use of supplemental oxygen, presence of pulmonary infiltrates at admission, and hospital site. Main Outcomes and Measures: In-hospital death adjusted for exposures for 4 periods in 2020. Results: The registry included 20 736 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from March through November 2020 (9524 women [45.9%]; mean [SD] age, 61.2 [17.9] years); 3271 patients (15.8%) died in the hospital. Mortality rates were 19.1% in March and April, 11.9% in May and June, 11.0% in July and August, and 10.8% in September through November. Compared with March and April, the adjusted odds ratios for in-hospital death were significantly lower in May and June (odds ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.58-0.76; P < .001), July and August (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49-0.69; P < .001), and September through November (odds ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47-0.73). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, high rates of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among registry patients in March and April 2020 decreased by more than one-third by June and remained near that rate through November. This difference in mortality rates between the months of March and April and later months persisted even after adjusting for age, sex, medical history, and COVID-19 disease severity and did not appear to be associated with changes in the characteristics of patients being admitted.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Controversies among Cancer Registry Participants, Genomic Researchers, and Institutional Review Boards about Returning Participants' Genomic Results.

OBJECTIVES: Genomic information will increasingly be used to aid in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease. Several national initiatives are paving the way for this new reality, while also promoting new models of participant-engaged research. We compare the opinions of research participants in a cancer registry, human genetic researchers, and institutional review board (IRB) professionals about the return of individual-level genetic results (ROR). METHODS: Online surveys were administered to participants in a cancer registry (n = 450) and overlapping questions were compared to our previous online national surveys of human genetic researchers (n = 351) and IRB professionals (n = 208). RESULTS: The majority of respondents agreed that researchers have an obligation to return individual results when they would affect a participant's health. While 77% of registry participants favored ROR if the researcher feels the participant might be interested in the results, only 30% of the IRB professionals and 25% of the genetic researchers agreed with this statement. CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences emerged between the stakeholder groups in several ROR scenarios. Policies that are acceptable to participants, researchers and IRBs, and that ensure human subject protections and facilitate research are needed.

A comparison of views regarding the use of de-identified data.

Data sharing of large genomic databases and biorepositories provides researchers adequately powered samples to advance the goals of precision medicine. Data sharing may also introduce, however, participant privacy concerns including possible reidentification. This study compares views of research participants, genetic researchers, and institutional review board (IRB) professionals regarding concerns about the use of de-identified data. An online survey was completed by cancer patients, their relatives, and controls from the Northwest Cancer Genetics Registry (n = 450) querying views about potential harms with the use of de-identified data. This was compared to our previous online national survey of human genetic researchers (n = 351) and IRB professionals (n = 208). Researchers were less likely to feel that participants would be personally identified or harmed from a study involving de-identified data or feel that a federal agency might compel researchers to disclose information about research participants. Compared to genetic researchers, IRB professionals and participants were significantly more likely to express that personal identification or harm was likely or that researchers might be forced to disclose information by a federal agency. An understanding of the differences in views regarding possible harm from the use of de-identified data between these three important stakeholder groups is necessary to move forward with genomic research.