Severe Cholestasis Predicts Recurrent Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Following Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may reoccur following liver transplantation (LT) and the diagnosis established once imaging studies demonstrate the diagnostic cholangiographic appearance. To evaluate whether the development of recurrent PSC (rPSC) is associated with cholestasis soon after LT, we studied whether changes in hepatic biochemistry within the first 12 months were linked with the development of rPSC and graft loss. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 158 transplant recipients with PSC in Canada, and 549 PSC transplant recipients from the United Kingdom. We evaluated serum liver tests within 12 months after LT and the subsequent development of a cholangiographic diagnosis of rPSC as a time-dependent covariate using Cox regression. Severe cholestasis was defined as either alkaline phosphatase> 3xupper limit of normal or total bilirubin> 100 µmol/L. RESULTS: Patients who developed rPSC were more likely to have severe cholestasis versus those without at 3 months (20.5% vs 8.2%, p=0.011), at 6 months (17.9% vs. 10.0%, p=0.026) and 12 months (15.4% vs. 7.8%, p=0.051) in the Canadian cohort and at 12 months in the UK cohort (27.9% vs. 12.6%, p<0.0001). By multivariable analysis, development of severe cholestasis in the Canadian cohort at 3 months (HR=2.41, p=0.046) and in the UK cohort at 12 months (HR=3.141, p<0.0001) were both associated with rPSC. Severe cholestasis at 3 months in the Canadian cohort was predictive of graft loss (HR=3.88, p=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The development of cholestasis within 3 to 12 months following LT was predictive of rPSC and graft loss.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and the Risk of Kaposi Sarcoma or Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the Context of Efficiently Treated Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Infection: A Collaborative Analysis of 20 European Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: A persistently low CD4/CD8 ratio has been reported to inversely correlate with the risk of non-AIDS defining cancer in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) efficiently treated by combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We evaluated the impact of the CD4/CD8 ratio on the risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) or non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), still among the most frequent cancers in treated PLWH. METHODS: PLWH from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) were included if they achieved virological control (viral load ≤ 500 copies/mL) within 9 months following cART and without previous KS/LNH diagnosis. Cox models were used to identify factors associated with KS or NHL risk, in all participants and those with CD4 ≥ 500/mm3 at virological control. We analyzed the CD4/CD8 ratio, CD4 count and CD8 count as time-dependent variables, using spline transformations. RESULTS: We included 56 708 PLWH, enrolled between 2000 and 2014. At virological control, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) CD4 count, CD8 count, and CD4/CD8 ratio were 414 (296-552)/mm3, 936 (670-1304)/mm3, and 0.43 (0.28-0.65), respectively. Overall, 221 KS and 187 NHL were diagnosed 9 (2-37) and 18 (7-42) months after virological control. Low CD4/CD8 ratios were associated with KS risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.02 [95% confidence interval {CI } = 1.23-3.31]) when comparing CD4/CD8 = 0.3 to CD4/CD8 = 1) but not with NHL risk. High CD8 counts were associated with higher NHL risk (HR = 3.14 [95% CI = 1.58-6.22]) when comparing CD8 = 3000/mm3 to CD8 = 1000/mm3). Similar results with increased associations were found in PLWH with CD4 ≥ 500/mm3 at virological control (HR = 3.27 [95% CI = 1.60-6.56] for KS; HR = 5.28 [95% CI = 2.17-12.83] for NHL). CONCLUSIONS: Low CD4/CD8 ratios and high CD8 counts despite effective cART were associated with increased KS/NHL risks respectively, especially when CD4 ≥ 500/mm3.

Incidence and outcome of colorectal cancer in liver transplant recipients: A national, multicentre analysis on 8115 patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: De novo malignancies after liver transplantation represent one of the leading causes of death in the long-term. It remains unclear whether liver transplant recipients have an increased risk of colorectal cancer and whether this negatively impacts on survival, particularly in those patients affected by primary sclerosing cholangitis and ulcerative colitis. METHODS: In this national multicentre cohort retrospective study, the incidence of colorectal cancer in 8115 evaluable adult patients undergoing a liver transplantation between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2010 was compared to the incidence in the general population through standardised incidence ratios. RESULTS: Fifty-two (0.6%) cases of colorectal cancer were identified at a median of 5.6 years postliver transplantation, predominantly grade 2 (76.9%) and stage T3 (50%) at diagnosis. The incidence rate of colorectal cancer in the whole liver transplant population was similar to the general UK population (SIR: 0.92), but significantly higher (SIR: 7.0) in the group of patients affected by primary sclerosing cholangitis/ulcerative colitis. One-, five- and ten-year survival rates from colorectal cancer diagnosis were 71%, 48% and 31%, respectively, and the majority of colorectal cancer patients died of cancer-specific causes. CONCLUSIONS: Liver transplantation alone is not associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer development. The primary sclerosing cholangitis/ulcerative colitis liver transplant population showed a significantly higher risk of colorectal cancer development than the general population, with a high proportion of advanced stage at diagnosis and a reduced patient survival.

Emulating a trial of joint dynamic strategies: An application to monitoring and treatment of HIV-positive individuals.

Decisions about when to start or switch a therapy often depend on the frequency with which individuals are monitored or tested. For example, the optimal time to switch antiretroviral therapy depends on the frequency with which HIV-positive individuals have HIV RNA measured. This paper describes an approach to use observational data for the comparison of joint monitoring and treatment strategies and applies the method to a clinically relevant question in HIV research: when can monitoring frequency be decreased and when should individuals switch from a first-line treatment regimen to a new regimen? We outline the target trial that would compare the dynamic strategies of interest and then describe how to emulate it using data from HIV-positive individuals included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. When, as in our example, few individuals follow the dynamic strategies of interest over long periods of follow-up, we describe how to leverage an additional assumption: no direct effect of monitoring on the outcome of interest. We compare our results with and without the "no direct effect" assumption. We found little differences on survival and AIDS-free survival between strategies where monitoring frequency was decreased at a CD4 threshold of 350 cells/µl compared with 500 cells/µl and where treatment was switched at an HIV-RNA threshold of 1000 copies/ml compared with 200 copies/ml. The "no direct effect" assumption resulted in efficiency improvements for the risk difference estimates ranging from an 7- to 53-fold increase in the effective sample size.

Chronic Kidney Disease Risk in African and Caribbean Populations With HIV.

We conducted an observational cohort study of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in >7000 African and Caribbean people with HIV in the UK. Using Poisson regression and East Africans as the reference group, the adjusted incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of ESKD was 3.14 (1.26-7.84) in Southern Africans, 6.35 (2.53-15.96) in West Africans, and 5.26 (1.91-14.43) in Caribbeans. Higher CD4 cell count and suppressed HIV replication were associated with reduced risk of ESKD. The risk of ESKD varied among HIV-positive people of African heritage, with the highest rates observed in those of West African descent.

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges.

BACKGROUND.: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons. METHODS.: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS.: In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage. CONCLUSIONS.: European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge.

An association between K65R and HIV-1 subtype C viruses in patients treated with multiple NRTIs.

Objectives: HIV-1 subtype C might have a greater propensity to develop K65R mutations in patients with virological failure compared with other subtypes. However, the strong association between viral subtype and confounding factors such as exposure groups and ethnicity affects the calculation of this propensity. We exploited the diversity of viral subtypes within the UK to undertake a direct comparative analysis. Patients and methods: We analysed only sequences with major IAS-defined mutations from patients with virological failure. Prevalence of K65R was related to subtype and exposure to the NRTIs that primarily select for this mutation (tenofovir, abacavir, didanosine and stavudine). A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effect of subtype on the prevalence of K65R, adjusting for previous and current exposure to all four specified drugs. Results: Subtype B patients ( n = 3410) were mostly MSM (78%) and those with subtype C ( n = 810) were mostly heterosexual (82%). K65R was detected in 7.8% of subtype B patients compared with 14.2% of subtype C patients. The subtype difference in K65R prevalence was observed irrespective of NRTI exposure and K65R was frequently selected by abacavir, didanosine and stavudine in patients with no previous exposure to tenofovir. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed that K65R was significantly more common in subtype C viruses (adjusted OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.55-2.62, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Patients with subtype C HIV-1 have approximately double the frequency of K65R in our database compared with other subtypes. The exact clinical implications of this finding need to be further elucidated.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of HIV-associated immune complex kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis and natural history of HIV-associated immune complex kidney disease (HIVICK) is not well understood. Key questions remain unanswered, including the role of HIV infection and replication in disease development and the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the prevention and treatment of disease. METHODS: In this multicentre study, we describe the renal pathology of HIVICK and compare the clinical characteristics of patients with HIVICK with those with IgA nephropathy and HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN). Poisson regression models were used to identify risk factors for each of these pathologies. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2012, 65 patients were diagnosed with HIVICK, 27 with IgA nephropathy and 70 with HIVAN. Black ethnicity and HIV RNA were associated with HIVICK, receipt of ART with IgA nephropathy and black ethnicity and CD4 cell count with HIVAN. HIVICK was associated with lower rates of progression to end-stage kidney disease compared with HIVAN and IgA nephropathy (P < 0.0001). Patients with HIVICK who initiated ART and achieved suppression of HIV RNA experienced improvements in estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a pathogenic role for HIV replication in the development of HIVICK and that ART may improve kidney function in patients who have detectable HIV RNA at the time of HIVICK diagnosis. Our data also suggest that IgA nephropathy should be viewed as a separate entity and not included in the HIVICK spectrum.

Boosted lopinavir- versus boosted atazanavir-containing regimens and immunologic, virologic, and clinical outcomes: a prospective study of HIV-infected individuals in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines consider regimens consisting of either ritonavir-boosted atazanavir or ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) backbone among their recommended and alternative first-line antiretroviral regimens. However, these guidelines are based on limited evidence from randomized clinical trials and clinical experience. METHODS: We compared these regimens with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes using data from prospective studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals in Europe and the United States in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration, 2004-2013. Antiretroviral therapy-naive and AIDS-free individuals were followed from the time they started a lopinavir or an atazanavir regimen. We estimated the 'intention-to-treat' effect for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens on each of the outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 6668 individuals started a lopinavir regimen (213 deaths, 457 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths), and 4301 individuals started an atazanavir regimen (83 deaths, 157 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths). The adjusted intention-to-treat hazard ratios for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens were 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53-.91) for death, 0.67 (95% CI, .55-.82) for AIDS-defining illness or death, and 0.91 (95% CI, .84-.99) for virologic failure at 12 months. The mean 12-month increase in CD4 count was 8.15 (95% CI, -.13 to 16.43) cells/µL higher in the atazanavir group. Estimates differed by NRTI backbone. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates are consistent with a lower mortality, a lower incidence of AIDS-defining illness, a greater 12-month increase in CD4 cell count, and a smaller risk of virologic failure at 12 months for atazanavir compared with lopinavir regimens.

Risk factors for recurrent primary sclerosing cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The association between primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is well recognised. However, the relationship between IBD and recurrent PSC (rPSC) is less well understood. We assessed the prevalence of rPSC and analysed the factors associated with rPSC post-liver transplantation and its influence on graft and patient survival. METHODS: This is a UK multicentre observational cohort study across six of the seven national liver transplant units. All patients undergoing a first liver transplant for PSC between January 1 1990 and December 31 2010 were included. Prospectively collected liver transplant data was obtained from NHSBT and colitis data was retrospectively collected from individual units. RESULTS: There were 679 (8.8%) first transplants for PSC. 347 patients (61.4%) had IBD, of which 306 (88.2%) had ulcerative colitis (UC). 81 (14.3%) patients developed rPSC and 37 (48.7%) of them developed graft failure from rPSC. Presence of UC post-liver transplant (HR=2.40, 95% CI 1.44-4.02) and younger age (HR=0.78, 95% CI 0.66-0.93) were the only factors significantly associated with rPSC. rPSC was associated with over a 4-fold increase in the risk of death (HR=4.71, 95% CI 3.39, 6.56) with 1, 5, and 10-year graft survival rates of 98%, 84%, and 56% respectively compared to 95%, 88%, and 72% in patients who did not develop rPSC. CONCLUSION: The presence of UC post-liver transplant is associated with a significantly increased risk of rPSC. Furthermore, the presence of rPSC increases the rate of graft failure and death, with higher re-transplantation rates.

Incomplete reversibility of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline following tenofovir disoproxil fumarate exposure.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) has been linked to renal impairment, but the extent to which this impairment is reversible is unclear. We aimed to investigate the reversibility of renal decline during TDF therapy. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models assessed factors associated with discontinuing TDF in those with an exposure duration of >6 months. In those who discontinued TDF therapy, linear piecewise regression models estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slopes before initiation of, during, and after discontinuation of TDF therapy. Factors associated with not achieving eGFR recovery 6 months after discontinuing TDF were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: We observed declines in the eGFR during TDF exposure (mean slopes, -15.7 mL/minute/1.73 m(2)/year [95% confidence interval {CI}, -20.5 to -10.9] during the first 3 months and -3.1 mL/minute/1.73 m(2)/year [95% CI, -4.6 to -1.7] thereafter) and evidence of eGFR increases following discontinuation of TDF therapy (mean slopes, 12.5 mL/minute/1.73 m(2)/year [95% CI, 8.9-16.1] during the first 3 months and 0.8 mL/minute/1.73 m(2)/year [95% CI, .1-1.5] thereafter). Following TDF discontinuation, 38.6% of patients with a decline in the eGFR did not experience recovery. A higher eGFR at baseline, a lower eGFR after discontinuation of TDF therapy, and more-prolonged exposure to TDF were associated with an increased risk of incomplete recovery 6 months after discontinuation of TDF therapy. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that a decline in the eGFR during TDF therapy was not fully reversible in one third of patients and suggests that prolonged TDF exposure at a low eGFR should be avoided.

Risks of second primary cancers among 584,965 female and male breast cancer survivors in England: a 25-year retrospective cohort study.

Background: Second primary cancers (SPCs) after breast cancer (BC) present an increasing public health burden, with little existing research on socio-demographic, tumour, and treatment effects. We addressed this in the largest BC survivor cohort to date, using a novel linkage of National Disease Registration Service datasets. Methods: The cohort included 581,403 female and 3562 male BC survivors diagnosed between 1995 and 2019. We estimated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for combined and site-specific SPCs using incidences for England, overall and by age at BC and socioeconomic status. We estimated incidences and Kaplan-Meier cumulative risks stratified by age at BC, and assessed risk variation by socio-demographic, tumour, and treatment characteristics using Cox regression. Findings: Both genders were at elevated contralateral breast (SIR: 2.02 (95% CI: 1.99-2.06) females; 55.4 (35.5-82.4) males) and non-breast (1.10 (1.09-1.11) females, 1.10 (1.00-1.20) males) SPC risks. Non-breast SPC risks were higher for females younger at BC diagnosis (SIR: 1.34 (1.31-1.38) <50 y, 1.07 (1.06-1.09) ≥50 y) and more socioeconomically deprived (SIR: 1.00 (0.98-1.02) least deprived quintile, 1.34 (1.30-1.37) most). Interpretation: Enhanced SPC surveillance may benefit BC survivors, although specific recommendations require more detailed multifactorial risk and cost-benefit analyses. The associations between deprivation and SPC risks could provide clinical management insights. Funding: CRUK Catalyst Award CanGene-CanVar (C61296/A27223). Cancer Research UK grant: PPRPGM-Nov 20∖100,002. This work was supported by core funding from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (NIHR203312)]. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Effects of age on antiretroviral plasma drug concentration in HIV-infected subjects undergoing routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

OBJECTIVES: The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic effects of antiretroviral therapy may differ in older compared with younger subjects with HIV infection. We aimed to assess factors associated with plasma antiretroviral drug exposure, including age, within a large HIV-infected cohort undergoing therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). METHODS: Data from the Liverpool TDM Registry were linked with the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study. All TDM of protease inhibitors (PIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) was included and in order to account for different antiretroviral drugs the plasma concentrations were standardized by group measurements according to drug, dosing and timing of TDM. Regression modelling was used to evaluate associations of drug exposure with age and clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results and time to antiretroviral treatment modification. RESULTS: Data from 3589 TDM samples were available from 2447 subjects. The greatest numbers of plasma concentrations were assessed for lopinavir (22.4%), efavirenz (18.5%), atazanavir (17.0%) and saquinavir (11.6%). As age increased, median standardized NNRTI concentrations remained constant, whereas PI concentrations increased (correlation coefficient 0.04, P = 0.033). In a regression analysis stratified by antiretroviral drug class, standardized plasma concentrations were significantly associated with age for PIs (0.05 increase in standard deviation of drug concentration with each 10 year increase in age, P = 0.044), but not for NNRTIs or other clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results or time to antiretroviral treatment modification. CONCLUSIONS: With increasing age, statistically significant rises in plasma PI exposure, but not NNRTI exposure, were observed. The clinical relevance of this observation merits further investigation.

Sexual and reproductive health in a UK cohort of young adults perinatally infected with HIV.

OBJECTIVES: To assess sexual health and behaviour outcomes of young adults with perinatally acquired HIV-1 (PaHIV), and audit sexual health interventions against published standards of care. METHODS: Retrospective case note audit of 16-25-year-olds with PaHIV attending a dedicated transition clinic from January 2005 to 2011. RESULTS: Fifty-two young adults, 31 women, median age 20 years. 41 were sexually active; median age of coitarche 16 years. Median number of lifetime partners was 3.5, and five reported non-consensual sex. All had a sexually transmitted infection (STI) screen; 6 were diagnosed with an STI, genital warts (human papilloma virus) most frequently. The median interval from coitarche to first STI screen was 2 years. The pregnancy incidence was 103 per 1000 person years. 18/25 (72%) sexually active women had a cervical smear, four had colposcopy. All patients had hepatitis B virus (HBV) serology. 47 had not been vaccinated against HBV prior to transition. 23 completed HBV vaccination of which 11 had surface antibody >100 IU/ml at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of our cohort was sexually active while still under the care of paediatric health services. Cervical screening and hepatitis B vaccination rates fell short of audit standards. Vaccination for hepatitis B should be considered prior to transfer of care to adult HIV services.

How likely is environmental or patient cross-contamination of Chlamydia trachomatis DNA to lead to false positive results in patients attending our clinic?

OBJECTIVES: Environmental contamination with DNA from Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) has previously been found in Genitourinary Medicine (GUM) clinics. There are no known cases of cross-contamination of clinical samples and no known nosocomial infections. We investigated whether diagnostic samples could become contaminated from the environment by running dummy sample and carrying out a patient-throughput analysis. A total of 29 748 patients attended clinics over a year. Of these, 2860 (9.6%) had a positive Chlamydia test result. METHOD: (1) A run of dummy samples (60 urine samples and 10 swabs) were processed as normal clinic specimens. (2) Patient-throughput analysis: Patient numbers attending the GUM clinic on a given day was categorised as low, moderate or high. χ(2) Tests were used to look for associations between categorical variables and Chlamydia test positivity. A Poisson regression model was fitted to look at the effect of the number of people in the clinic on the number of positive results in a given day. As some clinics were only run on certain days of the week, a sensitivity analysis was later performed with attendances at non-daily clinics removed. RESULTS: All dummy samples tested negative and we did not find evidence of an association between daily Chlamydia positivity and clinic attendance. CONCLUSIONS: It is unlikely that environmental or cross-contamination of CT has lead to significant numbers of false positive results. Laboratories check for possible cross-contamination routinely. The extension of this simple routine practice to all clinical areas could provide quality assurance, improving confidence in the results in clinics.

Regional variation in routes to diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma in England from 2006 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is rising, with overall prognosis re-maining very poor. Reasons for the high mortality of CCA include its late presentation in most patients, when curative options are no longer feasible, and poor response to systemic therapies for advanced disease. Late presentation presents a large barrier to improving outcomes and is often associated with diagnosis via mergency presentation (EP). Earlier diagnoses may be made by Two Week Wait (TWW) referrals through General practitioner (GP). We hypothesise that TWW referrals and EP routes to diagnosis differ across regions in England. AIM: To investigate routes to diagnosis of CCA over time, regional variation and influencing factors. METHODS: We linked patient records from the National Cancer Registration Dataset to Hospital Episode Statistics, Cancer Waiting Times and Cancer Screening Programme datasets to define routes to diagnosis and certain patient characteristics for patients diagnosed 2006-2017 in England. We used linear probability models to investigate geographic variation by assessing the proportions of patients diagnosed via TWW referral or EP across Cancer Alliances in England, adjusting for potential confounders. Correlation between the proportion of people diagnosed by TWW referral and EP was investigated with Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Of 23632 patients diagnosed between 2006-2017 in England, the most common route to diagnosis was EP (49.6%). Non-TWW GP referrals accounted for 20.5% of diagnosis routes, 13.8% were diagnosed by TWW referral, and the remainder 16.2% were diagnosed via an 'other' or Unknown route. The proportion diagnosed via a TWW referral doubled between 2006-2017 rising from 9.9% to 19.8%, conversely EP diagnosis route declined, falling from 51.3% to 46.0%. Statistically significant variation in both the TWW referral and EP proportions was found across Cancer Alliances. Age, presence of comorbidity and underlying liver disease were independently associated with both a lower proportion of patients diagnosed via TWW referral, and a higher proportion diagnosed by EP after adjusting for other potential confounders. CONCLUSION: There is significant geographic and socio-demographic variation in routes to diagnosis of CCA in England. Knowledge sharing of best practice may improve diagnostic pathways and reduce unwarranted variation.

Cohort study to assess geographical variation in cholangiocarcinoma treatment in England.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) are extremely poor owing to the complexities in diagnosing and managing a rare disease with heterogenous sub-types. Beyond curative surgery, which is only an option for a minority of patients diagnosed at an early stage, few systemic therapy options are currently recommended to relieve symptoms and prolong life. Stent insertion to manage disease complications requires highly specialised expertise. Evidence is lacking as to how CCA patients are managed in a real-world setting and whether there is any variation in treatments received by CCA patients. AIM: To assess geographic variation in treatments received amongst CCA patients in England. METHODS: Data used in this cohort study were drawn from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRD), Hospital Episode Statistics and the Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy Dataset. A cohort of 8853 CCA patients diagnosed between 2014-2017 in the National Health Service in England was identified from the NCRD. Potentially curative surgery for all patients and systemic therapy and stent insertion for 7751 individuals who did not receive surgery were identified as three end-points of interest. Linear probability models assessed variation in each of the three treatment modalities according to Cancer Alliance of residence at diagnosis, and for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics at diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 8853 CCA patients, 1102 (12.4%) received potentially curative surgery. The mean [95% confidence interval (CI)] percentage-point difference from the population average ranged from -3.96 (-6.34 to -1.59)% to 3.77 (0.54 to 6.99)% across Cancer Alliances in England after adjustment for patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, showing statistically significant variation. Amongst 7751 who did not receive surgery, 1542 (19.9%) received systemic therapy, with mean [95%CI] percentage-point difference from the population average between -3.84 (-8.04 to 0.35)% to 9.28 (1.76 to 16.80)% across Cancer Alliances after adjustment, again showing the presence of statistically significant variation for some regions. Stent insertion was received by 2156 (27.8%), with mean [95%CI] percentage-point difference from the population average between -10.54 (-12.88 to -8.20)% to 13.64 (9.22 to 18.06)% across Cancer Alliances after adjustment, showing wide and statistically significant variation from the population average. Half of 8853 patients (n = 4468) received no treatment with either surgery, systemic therapy or stent insertion. CONCLUSION: Substantial regional variation in treatments received by CCA patients was observed in England. Such variation could be due to differences in case-mix, clinical practice or access to specialist expertise.

2017 Cancer Prevalence Dashboard for London.

BACKGROUND: As cancer incidence increases and survival improves, the number of people living with a cancer diagnosis is increasing. People living with cancer have 50% more contact with GPs 15 months after diagnosis than a population of similar age, sex and locality; 70% have another long-term condition. AIM: To aid service providers' understanding of the cancer prevalent population by creating a publicly available visualisation tool that both describes patients' demographics and length of time lived with cancer, and compares counts of nationally registered cancer survivors to GP-maintained registers. METHOD: Using National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS) data, prevalence rates and counts were generated for London patients diagnosed 1995-2017 and alive 31 December 2017, overall and for lower-level geographies. GP-recorded Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) prevalence at Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) level was compared to NCRAS counts for the same period. RESULTS: On 31 December 2017, 231 740 (2.6%) people were living with cancer in London; 33% were diagnosed 5-9 years prior and 31% were diagnosed ≥10 years prior. Prevalence was higher in women (P<0.001) and dramatically increased with age for London (P<0.001); >12% of >75 year olds were living with a cancer diagnosis in every lower-level geography. Completeness of GP QOF cancer registers against NCRAS prevalence counts ranged from 75-108% across CCGs. CONCLUSION: Local understanding of the cancer prevalent population is needed, with a concerted effort to interpret large discrepancies between QOF and NCRAS registers, which may arise from differences in coding practice. Ensuring patients are identified in primary care is a first key step to managing cancer as a long-term condition.

First-line HIV treatment outcomes following the introduction of integrase inhibitors in UK guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the characteristics and outcomes of people who initiated different antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens during the era of integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs). DESIGN: UK-based observational cohort study. METHODS: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study participants were included if they had started ART between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2017. Virological failure was defined as the first of two consecutive plasma HIV RNA more than 50 copies/ml, at least 6 months after starting ART. Follow-up was censored at ART discontinuation, class switch or death. The risk of virological failure among those on INSTI, protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) regimens was compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. RESULTS: Of 12 585 participants, 45.6% started a NNRTI, 29.0% a protease inhibitor and 25.4% an INSTI regimen. Over a median follow-up of 20.3 months (interquartile range 7.9-38.9), 7.5% of participants experienced virological failure. Compared with those starting an NNRTI regimen, people receiving INSTIs or protease inhibitors were more likely to experience virological failure: INSTI group adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.95, P = 0.0009; protease inhibitor group adjusted hazard ratio 2.70, 95% confidence interval 2.27-3.21, P less than 0.0001, likelihood ratio test P less than 0.0001. CONCLUSION: First-line INSTI regimens were associated with a lower risk of virological failure than protease inhibitor regimens but both groups were more likely to experience virological failure than those initiating treatment with a NNRTI. There is likely to be residual channelling bias resulting from selected use of INSTIs and protease inhibitors in specific clinical contexts, including in those with a perceived risk of poor adherence.