Endoscopic Surveillance of Intestinal Metaplasia of the Esophagogastric Junction: A Decision Modeling Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC) has been rising. Intestinal metaplasia of the esophagogastric junction (EGJIM) is a common finding in gastroesophageal reflux (irregular Z-line) and may represent an early step in the development of EGJAC in the West. Worldwide, EGJIM may represent progression along the Correa cascade triggered by Helicobacter pylori . We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of EGJIM. METHODS: We developed a decision analytic model to compare endoscopic surveillance strategies for 50-year-old patients after diagnosis of non-dysplastic EGJIM: (i) no surveillance (standard of care), (ii) endoscopy every 3 years, (iii) endoscopy every 5 years, or (iv) 1-time endoscopy at 3 years. We modeled 4 progression scenarios to reflect uncertainty: A (0.01% annual cancer incidence), B (0.05%), C (0.12%), and D (0.22%). RESULTS: Cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance depended on the progression rate of EGJIM to cancer. At the lowest progression rate (scenario A, 0.01%), no surveillance strategies were cost-effective. In moderate progression scenarios, 1-time surveillance at 3 years was cost-effective, at $30,989 and $16,526 per quality-adjusted life year for scenarios B (0.05%) and C (0.12%), respectively. For scenario D (0.22%), surveillance every 5 years was cost-effective at $77,695 per quality-adjusted life year. DISCUSSION: Endoscopic surveillance is costly and can cause harm; however, low-intensity longitudinal surveillance (every 5 years) is cost-effective in populations with higher EGJAC incidence. No surveillance or 1-time endoscopic surveillance of patients with EGJIM was cost-effective in low-incidence populations. Future studies to better understand the natural history of EGJIM, identify risk factors of progression, and inform appropriate surveillance strategies are required.

Demographic Comparison of the Burden of Endoscopically Screenable Cancers in the United States.

Background and Aims: Gastrointestinal cancer incidence varies by race and ethnicity. In the United States (US), there are screening guidelines for esophageal cancer (EC) and colorectal cancer (CRC), but not gastric cancer (GC). We compared GC, CRC, and EC incidence among the most populous racial and ethnic groups to inform US interception strategies. Methods: We used SEER∗Stat to compare GC, CRC, and EC incidence rates across non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and the 8 largest Asian American populations using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 9 registries (2010-2014). Results: Noncardia GC incidence was highest among Korean (18.7 cases per 100,000) and lowest among NHW (1.4 cases per 100,000) Americans. CRC incidence was highest among non-Hispanic Black, Southeast Asian, and Japanese (35.9, 34.2, and 33.8 per 100,000, respectively) Americans and lowest among South Asian Americans (18.9 per 100,000). EC incidence was greatest in NHW (4.7 per 100,000) and lowest in Filipino (1.2 per 100,000) Americans. The incidence of noncardia GC slightly exceeded colon cancer in Korean American men (25.5 vs 22.4 per 100,000). GC surpassed EC incidence in all non-White racial and ethnic groups. Conclusion: The burden of GC, CRC, and EC differs based on race and ethnicity. Non-White racial and ethnic groups experience a disproportionate burden of GC for which systematic programs for cancer interception, similar to CRC and EC, are needed.