Trends in firearm injury in a southern California health care system from 2010 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Firearm injury is a significant public health concern in the United States. METHODS: Data on fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries were obtained from a cohort of N = 7,473,650 members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated healthcare system between 2010 and 2020. Age-adjusted rates of combined fatal and nonfatal firearm injury per 100,000 members were calculated by year, with the 2010 US census as the reference population. Trends were evaluated using Poisson or negative binomial regression. RESULTS: There was an increasing trend in overall firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system (p < .0001), primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries (p < .0001). Self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time (p = .01). Injuries among youth showed no significant change. CONCLUSION: There was an increasing trend in firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system, primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries; however, self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time. Injuries among youth showed no significant change.

Sustainability of weight loss from a family-centered pediatric weight management program integrated in primary care.

BACKGROUND: A 6-month pediatric weight loss program showed modest success, but the sustainability of this success after 12 months was unclear. The present study aims tomeasure the medium-term effectiveness of family-based weight management in pediatric primary care to reduce body weight in children living with obesity. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, children ages 3 to 17 years with obesity in Kaiser Permanente Orange County, California, who enrolled in a weight management program between April 2014 and December 2018 (FB-WMG, n = 341) were compared to children referred but not enrolled (Ref-CG, n = 317) and controls matched by sex, age, zip code and BMI (Area-CG, n = 801). The relative distance from the median BMI-for-age at months 0, 6, and 12 were expressed as difference-in-differences (DID) using multivariable linear regressions with robust standard error. RESULTS: The baseline BMI-for-age was 98.6 (SD 1.08) percentile in FB-WMG, 98.2 (SD 1.22) percentile in Ref-CG, and 98.6 (1.13 in Area-CG). FB-WMG had a median of 3 visits (P25 1 visit, P75 5 visits) in the first 6 months. Despite a more considerable decrease in the relative distance to the median BMI-for-age in FB-WMG children with 3+ visits after 6 months, the success obtained was not sustained at 12 months (DID FB-WMG vs Area-CG -0.34, 95% CI - 3.00 to 2.33%, FB-WMG vs Ref-CG -0.39, 95% CI - 3.14 to 2.35%). At 12 months, there was no statistical significant difference between the three groups (FB-WWG, Ref-CG, Area-CG). CONCLUSIONS: The initial success in weight management was not sustained in the absence of continued support for healthy lifestyle changes. Based on current evidence, continued support is necessary to maintain and promote success beyond a brief 6 month intervention. Long-term pediatric weight management programs are needed to promote continuing progress.

Intrapartum Antibiotic Exposure and Body Mass Index in Children.

BACKGROUND: Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) reduces a newborn's risk of group B streptococcal infection (GBS) but may lead to an increased childhood body mass index (BMI). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of infants (n = 223 431) born 2007-2015 in an integrated healthcare system. For vaginal delivery, we compared children exposed to GBS-IAP and to any other type or duration of intrapartum antibiotics to no antibiotic exposure. For cesarean delivery, we compared children exposed to GBS-IAP to those exposed to all other intrapartum antibiotics, including surgical prophylaxis. BMI over 5 years was compared using nonlinear multivariate models with B-spline functions, stratified by delivery mode and adjusted for demographics, maternal factors, breastfeeding, and childhood antibiotic exposure. RESULTS: In vaginal deliveries, GBS-IAP was associated with higher BMI from 0.5 to 5.0 years of age compared to no antibiotics (P < .0001 for all time points, ΔBMI at age 5 years 0.12 kg/m2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .07-.16 kg/m2). Other antibiotics were associated with higher BMI from 0.3 to 5.0 years of age. In cesarean deliveries, GBS-IAP was associated with increased BMI from 0.7 years to 5.0 years of age (P < .05 for 0.7-0.8 years, P < .0001 for all other time points) compared to other antibiotics (ΔBMI at age 5 years 0.24 kg/m2, 95% CI: .14-.34 kg/m2). Breastfeeding did not modify these associations. CONCLUSIONS: GBS-IAP was associated with a small but sustained increase in BMI starting at very early age. This association highlights the need to better understand the effects of perinatal antibiotic exposure on childhood health.

A Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) study of medication and CBT sequencing in the treatment of pediatric anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of a child who has an anxiety disorder usually begins with the question of which treatment to start first, medication or psychotherapy. Both have strong empirical support, but few studies have compared their effectiveness head-to-head, and none has investigated what to do if the treatment tried first isn't working well-whether to optimize the treatment already begun or to add the other treatment. METHODS: This is a single-blind Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) of 24 weeks duration with two levels of randomization, one in each of two 12-week stages. In Stage 1, children will be randomized to fluoxetine or Coping Cat Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). In Stage 2, remitters will continue maintenance-level therapy with the single-modality treatment received in Stage 1. Non-remitters during the first 12 weeks of treatment will be randomized to either [1] optimization of their Stage 1 treatment, or [2] optimization of Stage 1 treatment and addition of the other intervention. After the 24-week trial, we will follow participants during open, naturalistic treatment to assess the durability of study treatment effects. Patients, 8-17 years of age who are diagnosed with an anxiety disorder, will be recruited and treated within 9 large clinical sites throughout greater Los Angeles. They will be predominantly underserved, ethnic minorities. The primary outcome measure will be the self-report score on the 41-item youth SCARED (Screen for Child Anxiety Related Disorders). An intent-to-treat analysis will compare youth randomized to fluoxetine first versus those randomized to CBT first ("Main Effect 1"). Then, among Stage 1 non-remitters, we will compare non-remitters randomized to optimization of their Stage 1 monotherapy versus non-remitters randomized to combination treatment ("Main Effect 2"). The interaction of these main effects will assess whether one of the 4 treatment sequences (CBT➔CBT; CBT➔med; med➔med; med➔CBT) in non-remitters is significantly better or worse than predicted from main effects alone. DISCUSSION: Findings from this SMART study will identify treatment sequences that optimize outcomes in ethnically diverse pediatric patients from underserved low- and middle-income households who have anxiety disorders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This protocol, version 1.0, was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on February 17, 2021 with Identifier: NCT04760275 .

Generalizability of an Automatic Explanation Method for Machine Learning Prediction Results on Asthma-Related Hospital Visits in Patients With Asthma: Quantitative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Asthma exerts a substantial burden on patients and health care systems. To facilitate preventive care for asthma management and improve patient outcomes, we recently developed two machine learning models, one on Intermountain Healthcare data and the other on Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) data, to forecast asthma-related hospital visits, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations, in the succeeding 12 months among patients with asthma. As is typical for machine learning approaches, these two models do not explain their forecasting results. To address the interpretability issue of black-box models, we designed an automatic method to offer rule format explanations for the forecasting results of any machine learning model on imbalanced tabular data and to suggest customized interventions with no accuracy loss. Our method worked well for explaining the forecasting results of our Intermountain Healthcare model, but its generalizability to other health care systems remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the generalizability of our automatic explanation method to KPSC for forecasting asthma-related hospital visits. METHODS: Through a secondary analysis of 987,506 data instances from 2012 to 2017 at KPSC, we used our method to explain the forecasting results of our KPSC model and to suggest customized interventions. The patient cohort covered a random sample of 70% of patients with asthma who had a KPSC health plan for any period between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: Our method explained the forecasting results for 97.57% (2204/2259) of the patients with asthma who were correctly forecasted to undergo asthma-related hospital visits in the succeeding 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: For forecasting asthma-related hospital visits, our automatic explanation method exhibited an acceptable generalizability to KPSC. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/resprot.5039.

Bariatric Surgery is Associated With Reduced Risk of Breast Cancer in Both Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Women.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective cohort study examined whether bariatric surgery is associated with reduced risk of breast cancer among pre- and postmenopausal women. BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased risk of breast cancer, but the impact of weight loss on breast cancer risk has been difficult to quantify. METHODS: The cohort included obese (body mass index ≥35 kg/m) patients enrolled in an integrated health care delivery system between 2005 and 2012 (with follow-up through 2014). Female bariatric surgery patients (N = 17,998) were matched on body mass index, age, study site, and comorbidity index to 53,889 women with no bariatric surgery. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine incident breast cancer up to 10 years after bariatric surgery. Pre- and postmenopausal women were examined separately, and further classified by estrogen receptor (ER) status. RESULTS: The analysis included 301 premenopausal and 399 postmenopausal breast cancer cases. In multivariable adjusted models, bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of both premenopausal (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.54-0.94) and postmenopausal (HR = 0.55, 95% CI, 0.42-0.72) breast cancer. Among premenopausal women, the effect of bariatric surgery was more pronounced among ER-negative cases (HR = 0.36, 95% CI, 0.16-0.79). Among postmenopausal women, the effect was more pronounced in ER-positive cases (HR = 0.52, 95% CI, 0.39-0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer among severely obese women. These findings have significant public health relevance because the prevalence of obesity continues to rise, and few modifiable breast cancer risk factors have been identified, especially for premenopausal women.

Seafood, fatty acid biosynthesis genes, and multiple sclerosis susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: The role of omega-3 fatty acid in multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether fish/seafood intake or genetic factors that regulate omega-3 fatty acids levels are associated with MS risk. METHODS: We examined the association of fish and shrimp consumption and 13 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FADS1, FADS2, and ELOV2 with risk of MS in 1153 individuals from the MS Sunshine Study, a case-control study of incident MS or clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), recruited from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. RESULTS: Consuming fish/seafood at least once a week or at least once a month with regular fish oil use was associated with 44% reduced odds of MS/CIS (adjusted OR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.41-0.76; p = 0.0002) compared with consuming fish/seafood less than once a month and no fish oil supplementation. Two FADS2 SNPs (rs174611 and rs174618) were independently associated with a lower risk of MS (adjusted ORs = 0.74, 0.79, p = 0.0056, 0.0090, respectively). Association of FADS2 SNPs with MS risk was confirmed in an independent dataset. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that omega-3 fatty acid intake may be an important modifiable risk factor for MS. This is consistent with the other known health benefits of fish consumption and complementary genetic studies supporting a key role for omega-3 regulation.

Bariatric Surgery and the Risk of Cancer in a Large Multisite Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether bariatric surgery is associated with a lower risk of cancer. BACKGROUND: Obesity is strongly associated with many types of cancer. Few studies have examined the relationship between bariatric surgery and cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing bariatric surgery between 2005 and 2012 with follow-up through 2014 using data from a large integrated health insurance and care delivery systems with 5 study sites. The study included 22,198 subjects who had bariatric surgery and 66,427 nonsurgical subjects matched on sex, age, study site, body mass index, and Elixhauser comorbidity index. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine incident cancer up to 10 years after bariatric surgery compared to the matched nonsurgical patients. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 3.5 years, we identified 2543 incident cancers. Patients undergoing bariatric surgery had a 33% lower hazard of developing any cancer during follow-up [hazard ratio (HR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60, 0.74, P < 0.001) compared with matched patients with severe obesity who did not undergo bariatric surgery, and results were even stronger when the outcome was restricted to obesity-associated cancers (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.51, 0.69, P < 0.001). Among the obesity-associated cancers, the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.44, 0.77, P < 0.001), colon cancer (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36, 0.97, P = 0.04), endometrial cancer (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.37, 0.67, P < 0.001), and pancreatic cancer (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22, 0.97, P = 0.04) was each statistically significantly lower among those who had undergone bariatric surgery compared with matched nonsurgical patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multisite cohort of patients with severe obesity, bariatric surgery was associated with a lower risk of incident cancer, particularly obesity-associated cancers, such as postmenopausal breast cancer, endometrial cancer, and colon cancer. More research is needed to clarify the specific mechanisms through which bariatric surgery lowers cancer risk.

A diet high in sugar-sweetened beverage and low in fruits and vegetables is associated with adiposity and a pro-inflammatory adipokine profile.

Diet, obesity and adipokines play important roles in diabetes and CVD; yet, limited studies have assessed the relationship between diet and multiple adipokines. This cross-sectional study assessed associations between diet, adiposity and adipokines in Mexican Americans. The cohort included 1128 participants (age 34·7±8·2 years, BMI 29·5±5·9 kg/m2, 73·2 % female). Dietary intake was assessed by 12-month food frequency questionnaire. Adiposity was measured by BMI, total percentage body fat and percentage trunk fat using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Adiponectin, apelin, C-reactive protein (CRP), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-IV), IL-1ß, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-18, leptin, lipocalin, monocyte chemo-attractant protein-1 (MCP-1), resistin, secreted frizzled protein 4 (SFRP-4), SFRP-5, TNF-α and visfatin were assayed with multiplex kits or ELISA. Joint multivariate associations between diet, adiposity and adipokines were analysed using canonical correlations adjusted for age, sex, energy intake and kinship. The median (interquartile range) energy intake was 9514 (7314, 11912) kJ/d. Overall, 55 % of total intake was accounted for by carbohydrates (24 % from sugar). A total of 66 % of the shared variation between diet and adiposity, and 34 % of diet and adipokines were explained by the top canonical correlation. The diet component was most represented by sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), fruit and vegetables. Participants consuming a diet high in SSB and low in fruits and vegetables had higher adiposity, CRP, leptin, and MCP-1, but lower SFRP-5 than participants with high fruit and vegetable and low SSB intake. In Mexican Americans, diets high in SSB but low in fruits and vegetables contribute to adiposity and a pro-inflammatory adipokine profile.

Cardiometabolic Risk Factors Among 1.3 Million Adults With Overweight or Obesity, but Not Diabetes, in 10 Geographically Diverse Regions of the United States, 2012-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Various phenotypes of overweight and obesity pose various health risks. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of 4 commonly measured cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) among adults with overweight or obesity, but not diabetes, at the time of the study. METHODS: We analyzed data for 1,294,174 adults (aged ≥20 y) who were members of one of 4 integrated health systems. Each cohort member had a body mass index in 2012 or 2013 that indicated overweight or obesity. We determined the presence of 4 CRFs within 1 year of the first BMI measurement: elevated blood pressure (systolic ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic >85 mm Hg or ICD-9-CM [International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification] diagnosis code 401.0-405.9); elevated triglycerides (≥150 mg/dL or ICD-9-CM 272.1); low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (<40 mg/dL for men or <50 mg/dL for women or ICD-9-CM 272.5); and prediabetes (fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL or HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% or ICD-9-CM 790.2x). We tested the risk of having 1 or more CRFs after adjusting for obesity class and demographic characteristics with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among participants with overweight (52.5% of the sample), 18.6% had none of the 4 CRFs. Among the 47.5% of participants with obesity, 9.6% had none; among participants with morbid obesity, 5.8% had none. Age was strongly associated with CRFs in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: Almost 10% of participants with obesity had no CRFs. Overweight or obesity increases cardiometabolic risk, but the number and type of CRFs varied substantially by age, even among participants with morbid obesity.