Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Overall Survival in Multiple System Atrophy.

Background: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a devastating disease characterized by a variable combination of motor and autonomic symptoms. Previous studies identified numerous clinical factors to be associated with shorter survival. Objective: To enable personalized patient counseling, we aimed at developing a risk model of survival based on baseline clinical symptoms. Methods: MSA patients referred to the Movement Disorders Unit in Innsbruck, Austria, between 1999 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty for variable selection were performed to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed to estimate the 7 years overall survival probability. The performance of the predictive model was validated and calibrated internally using bootstrap resampling and externally using data from the prospective European MSA Study Group Natural History Study. Results: A total of 210 MSA patients were included in this analysis, of which 124 patients died. The median survival was 7 years. The following clinical variables were found to significantly affect overall survival and were included in the nomogram: age at symptom onset, falls within 3 years of onset, early autonomic failure including orthostatic hypotension and urogenital failure, and lacking levodopa response. The time-dependent area under curve for internal and external validation was >0.7 within the first 7 years of the disease course. The model was well calibrated showing good overlap between predicted and actual survival probability at 7 years. Conclusion: The nomogram is a simple tool to predict survival on an individual basis and may help to improve counseling and treatment of MSA patients.

Unusual familial presentation of epsilon-sarcoglycan gene mutation with falls and writer's cramp.

Inherited myoclonus dystonia (M-D, DYT11) is an autosomal dominant dystonia-plus syndrome, which in many families is caused by mutations in the SGCE/(epsilon-sarcoglycan gene. We present a family with M-D, with an unusual presentation characterized by infantile onset with falls in two sisters and adult-onset writer's cramp in their father. Myoclonus dystonia is typically characterized by a variable mixture of alcohol-sensitive myoclonic jerks and dystonia classically affecting mainly the proximal arms and neck. Leg involvement is less frequent, and to our knowledge, initial presentation with falls has not previously been described. The unusual phenotype of the family is discussed.

Red flags for multiple system atrophy.

The clinical diagnosis of multiple system atrophy (MSA) is fraught with difficulty and there are no pathognomonic features to discriminate the parkinsonian variant (MSA-P) from Parkinson's disease (PD). Besides the poor response to levodopa, and the additional presence of pyramidal or cerebellar signs (ataxia) or autonomic failure as major diagnostic criteria, certain other clinical features known as "red flags" or warning signs may raise the clinical suspicion of MSA. To study the diagnostic role of these features in MSA-P versus PD patients, a standardized red flag check list (RFCL) developed by the European MSA Study Group (EMSA-SG) was administered to 57 patients with probable MSA-P and 116 patients with probable PD diagnosed according to established criteria. Those red flags with a specifity over 95% were selected for further analysis. Factor analysis was applied to reduce the number of red flags. The resulting set was then applied to 17 patients with possible MSA-P who on follow-up fulfilled criteria of probable MSA-P. Red flags were grouped into related categories. With two or more of six red flag categories present specificity was 98.3% and sensitivity was 84.2% in our cohort. When applying these criteria to patients with possible MSA-P, 76.5% of them would have been correctly diagnosed as probable MSA-P 15.9 (+/-7.0) months earlier than with the Consensus criteria alone. We propose a combination of two out of six red flag categories as additional diagnostic criteria for probable MSA-P.

The natural history of multiple system atrophy: a prospective European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a fatal and still poorly understood degenerative movement disorder that is characterised by autonomic failure, cerebellar ataxia, and parkinsonism in various combinations. Here we present the final analysis of a prospective multicentre study by the European MSA Study Group to investigate the natural history of MSA. METHODS: Patients with a clinical diagnosis of MSA were recruited and followed up clinically for 2 years. Vital status was ascertained 2 years after study completion. Disease progression was assessed using the unified MSA rating scale (UMSARS), a disease-specific questionnaire that enables the semiquantitative rating of autonomic and motor impairment in patients with MSA. Additional rating methods were applied to grade global disease severity, autonomic symptoms, and quality of life. Survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier analysis and predictors were identified in a Cox regression model. Group differences were analysed by parametric tests and non-parametric tests as appropriate. Sample size estimates were calculated using a paired two-group t test. FINDINGS: 141 patients with moderately severe disease fulfilled the consensus criteria for MSA. Mean age at symptom onset was 56·2 (SD 8·4) years. Median survival from symptom onset as determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis was 9·8 years (95% CI 8·1-11·4). The parkinsonian variant of MSA (hazard ratio [HR] 2·08, 95% CI 1·09-3·97; p=0·026) and incomplete bladder emptying (HR 2·10, 1·02-4·30; p=0·044) predicted shorter survival. 24-month progression rates of UMSARS activities of daily living, motor examination, and total scores were 49% (9·4 [SD 5·9]), 74% (12·9 [8·5]), and 57% (21·9 [11·9]), respectively, relative to baseline scores. Autonomic symptom scores progressed throughout the follow-up. Shorter symptom duration at baseline (OR 0·68, 0·5-0·9; p=0·006) and absent levodopa response (OR 3·4, 1·1-10·2; p=0·03) predicted rapid UMSARS progression. Sample size estimation showed that an interventional trial with 258 patients (129 per group) would be able to detect a 30% effect size in 1-year UMSARS motor examination decline rates at 80% power. INTERPRETATION: Our prospective dataset provides new insights into the evolution of MSA based on a follow-up period that exceeds that of previous studies. It also represents a useful resource for patient counselling and planning of multicentre trials.

The entity of young onset primary cervical dystonia.

Primary cervical dystonia is typically an adult onset condition with symptom onset usually in the fifth and sixth decade. Young onset (<28 years) is uncommon. We report 76 patients with cervical dystonia as a presenting or predominant feature, with disease onset before the age of 28. Male to female ratio was 1.24:1 and the mean onset age was 21 (3-28) years. A family history of tremor and/or dystonia was noted in 26.3%. Depression and anxiety attacks were present in 23.7%. Prior injury or surgery involving the neck was noted in 17.1%. 23 (30.3%) experienced spontaneous partial or complete remissions within the first 5 years of onset, but all relapsed. Cervical dystonia was predominantly rotational torticollis. 30% developed extra-nuchal dystonia and tremor affecting contiguous parts but in only one there was spread to affect the legs. All 15 patients tested for the DYT1 gene were negative. 74% responded favorably to botulinum toxin injections, whereas none of the 13 patients treated with L-Dopa preparations had a beneficial response. The distinctive features of this entity are discussed.