Prevalence and future estimates of frailty and pre-frailty in a population-based sample of people 70 years and older in Norway: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty in older people is a rising global health concern; therefore, monitoring prevalence estimates and presenting projections of future frailty are important for healthcare planning. AIM: To present current prevalence estimates of frailty and pre-frailty and future projections according to both dominant frailty models in a large population-based observational study including adults ≥ 70 years in Norway. METHODS: In this population-based observational study, we included 9956 participants from the HUNT4 70 + study, conducting assessments at field stations, homes, and nursing homes. Frailty was assessed using Fried criteria and a 35-item frailty index (HUNT4-FI). Inverse probability weighting and calibration using post-stratification weights and aggregated register data for Norway according to age, sex, and education ensured representativeness, and population projection models were used to estimate future prevalence. RESULTS: According to Fried criteria, the current prevalence rates of frailty and pre-frailty in people ≥ 70 years were 10.6% and 41.9%, respectively, and for HUNT4-FI 35.8% and 33.2%, respectively. Compared to previous European estimates we identified higher overall frailty prevalence, but lower prevalence in younger age groups. Projections suggest the number of Norwegian older adults living with frailty will close to double by 2040. CONCLUSION: Frailty in older people in Norway is more prevalent than previous European estimates, emphasising the imperative for effective interventions aimed to delay and postpone frailty and ensure healthcare system sustainability in an ageing population. Future planning should consider the great heterogeneity in health and functioning within the 70 + population.

Associations between gait speed and well-known fall risk factors among community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Exercise interventions are effective at preventing falls in community-dwelling older adults, especially before disability is present. Gait speed below 1.0 m/s is a strong predictor for falls in the elderly. However, evidence is sparse for gait speed alone being sufficient to identify individuals at a high risk of falling. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of fall risk factors among community-dwelling older adults in their late 70s and to investigate the associations between these risk factors and low gait speed in this population. METHODS: This cross-sectional cohort study comprised 108 elderly living in a small Norwegian municipality, born between 1936 and 1938. Exclusion criteria were living in residential care, inability to walk 4 m, and severe cognitive impairment. Measurements included gait speed, depressive symptoms, executive functions, fear of falling, vision function, fall history, body mass index, medications, and comorbidity. Gait speed was dichotomized using a cut-off of 1 m/s, and associations between different risk factors and low gait speed was explored using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Mean gait speed was 1.0 ± 0.3 m/s. In 44.4% of the participants, gait speed was below 1.0 m/s, indicating increased fall risk. Low gait speed was significantly associated with a history of multiple falls (odds ratio [OR] = 3.70, 95% CI [1.18, 11.65]), low educational level (OR = 3.58, 95% CI [1.10, 11.66]), higher number of medications (OR = 4.28, 95% CI [1.63, 11.2]), and higher number of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.31, 95% CI [1.09, 1.58]). We found no significant associations between gait speed and comorbidity, sex, vision, executive functions, or fear of falling. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that gait speed with cut-off 1.0 m/s could represent a useful tool for identifying individuals who are vulnerable but not yet disabled and could benefit from fall-preventive exercise. However, extended assessment is probably needed to personalize interventions.