Distribution of Usutu Virus in Germany and Its Effect on Breeding Bird Populations.

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging mosquitoborne flavivirus with an increasing number of reports from several countries in Europe, where USUV infection has caused high avian mortality rates. However, 20 years after the first observed outbreak of USUV in Europe, there is still no reliable assessment of the large-scale impact of USUV outbreaks on bird populations. In this study, we identified the areas suitable for USUV circulation in Germany and analyzed the effects of USUV on breeding bird populations. We calculated the USUV-associated additional decline of common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations as 15.7% inside USUV-suitable areas but found no significant effect for the other 14 common bird species investigated. Our results show that the emergence of USUV is a further threat for birds in Europe and that the large-scale impact on population levels, at least for common blackbirds, must be considered.

Widespread activity of multiple lineages of Usutu virus, western Europe, 2016.

In the summer of 2016, Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands reported widespread Usutu virus (USUV) activity based on live and dead bird surveillance. The causative USUV strains represented four lineages, of which two putative novel lineages were most likely recently introduced into Germany and spread to other western European countries. The spatial extent of the outbreak area corresponded with R0 values > 1. The occurrence of the outbreak, the largest USUV epizootic registered so far in Europe, allowed us to gain insight in how a recently introduced arbovirus with potential public health implications can spread and become a resident pathogen in a naïve environment. Understanding the ecological and epidemiological factors that drive the emergence or re-emergence of USUV is critical to develop and implement timely surveillance strategies for adequate preventive and control measures. Public health authorities, blood transfusion services and clinicians in countries where USUV was detected should be aware of the risk of possible USUV infection in humans, including in patients with unexplained encephalitis or other neurological impairments, especially during late summer when mosquito densities peak.

West Nile Virus Epidemic in Germany Triggered by Epizootic Emergence, 2019.

One year after the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to birds and horses in Germany, an epizootic emergence of WNV was again observed in 2019. The number of infected birds and horses was considerably higher compared to 2018 (12 birds, two horses), resulting in the observation of the first WNV epidemy in Germany: 76 cases in birds, 36 in horses and five confirmed mosquito-borne, autochthonous human cases. We demonstrated that Germany experienced several WNV introduction events and that strains of a distinct group (Eastern German WNV clade), which was introduced to Germany as a single introduction event, dominated mosquito, birds, horse and human-related virus variants in 2018 and 2019. Virus strains in this clade are characterized by a specific-Lys2114Arg mutation, which might lead to an increase in viral fitness. Extraordinary high temperatures in 2018/2019 allowed a low extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which drove the epizootic emergence and, in the end, most likely triggered the 2019 epidemic. Spatiotemporal EIP values correlated with the geographical WNV incidence. This study highlights the risk of a further spread in Germany in the next years with additional human WNV infections. Thus, surveillance of birds is essential to provide an early epidemic warning and thus, initiate targeted control measures.

West Nile virus epizootic in Germany, 2018.

The summer of 2018 in Germany was the second hottest and driest on record. These generally extremely favorable climatic conditions most likely triggered the further expansion and the efficient propagation of the zoonotic arthropod-borne West Nile virus in many Southern/Southeastern and even Central European countries. WNV infections were detected for the first time in resident wild and aviary birds, such as common blackbirds, northern goshawks and great grey owls in Eastern and Southeastern Germany. The causative WNV strain belonged to the central European subclade II. Phylogeographic analysis indicated a single introduction event of WNV into Germany, most likely in 2016 from Czech Republic, and also a unique non-synonymous mutation in the NS3 gene. Extraordinary high temperatures in 2018 presumably led to decreased averaged extrinsic incubation period values for WNV in mosquitoes, leading to rapid virus amplification and greater transmission risk for vertebrates in Germany. Blood transfusion services and clinicians in Germany should be aware of these possible WNV infection risks in humans especially during late summer.

Improving aquatic warbler population assessments by accounting for imperfect detection.

Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional 'full count' approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.