Changes in Characteristics of Patients with Liver Cirrhosis Visiting a Tertiary Hospital over 15 Years: a Retrospective Multi-Center Study in Korea.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis has become a heavy burden not only for patients, but also for our society. However, little is known about the recent changes in clinical outcomes and characteristics of patients with cirrhosis-related complications in Korea. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate changes in characteristics of patients with liver cirrhosis in Daegu-Gyeongbuk province in Korea over the past 15 years. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 15,716 liver cirrhotic patients from 5 university hospitals in Daegu-Gyeongbuk province from 2000 to 2014. The Korean Standard Classification of Diseases-6 code associated with cirrhosis was investigated through medical records and classified according to the year of first visit. RESULTS: A total of 15,716 patients was diagnosed with cirrhosis. A number of patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis has decreased each year. In 2000, patients were most likely to be diagnosed with hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis, followed by alcoholic cirrhosis. There was a significant decrease in HBV (P < 0.001), but alcohol, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) showed a significant increase during the study period (alcohol, P = 0.036; HCV, P = 0.001; NAFLD, P = 0.001). At the time of initial diagnosis, the ratio of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A gradually increased from 23.1% to 32.9% (P < 0.001). The most common cause of liver-related hospitalization in 2000 was hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (25.5%); in 2014, gastrointestinal bleeding with esophageal and gastric varices (21.4%) was the most common cause. Cases of hospitalization with liver-related complication represented 76.4% of all cases in 2000 but 70.9% in 2014. Incidence rate of HCC has recently increased. In addition, HCC-free survival was significantly lower in CTP class A than in classes B and C. Finally, there was significant difference in HCC occurrence according to causes (P < 0.001). HBV and HCV cirrhosis had lower HCC-free survival than alcoholic and NAFLD cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: In recent years, the overall number of cirrhosis patients has decreased. This study confirmed the recent trend in decrease of cirrhosis, especially of cirrhosis due to HBV, and the increase of HCV, alcoholic and NAFLD cirrhosis. Targeted screening for at-risk patients will facilitate early detection of liver diseases allowing effective intervention and may have decreased the development of cirrhosis and its complications.

Long-term Prognosis of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Survivors.

GOALS: We aimed to investigate significant factors influencing the long-term prognosis of patients who survived acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). BACKGROUND: The mortality of ACLF is predominantly affected by the organ failure severity. However, long-term outcomes of patients who survive ACLF are not known. STUDY: A cohort of 1084 cirrhotic patients who survived for more than 3 months following acute deterioration of liver function was prospectively followed. ACLF was defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver Chronic Liver Failure Consortium definition. RESULTS: The mean follow-up duration was 19.4±9.9 months. In the subgroup of patients without previous acute decompensation (AD), ACLF occurrence did not affect long-term outcomes. However, in patients with previous AD, ACLF negatively affected long-term transplant-free survival even after overcoming ACLF (hazard ratio, 2.00, P=0.012). Previous AD was the significant predictive factor of long-term mortality and was independent of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score in these ACLF-surviving patients. Organ failure severity did not affect transplant-free survival in patients who survived an ACLF episode. CONCLUSIONS: A prior history of AD is the most important factor affecting long-term outcomes following an ACLF episode regardless of Model for End-stage Liver Disease score. Prevention of a first AD episode may improve the long-term transplant-free survival of liver cirrhosis patients.

Effects of Virologic Response to Treatment on Short- and Long-term Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Decompensated Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the effects of antiviral therapy on short- and long-term survival of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related decompensated cirrhosis. We aimed to determine whether a maintained virologic response (MVR, defined as persistent undetectable HBV DNA during therapy) associates with short-term (6 mo) and long-term (6-120 mo) survival of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a 10-year observation analysis using data from the Epidemiology and Natural History of Liver Cirrhosis study of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis in Korea. Of the entire cohort (1595 patients enrolled at onset of decompensation since 2005), our analysis comprised 295 patients who immediately began treatment with entecavir (n = 179) or lamivudine (n = 116) after decompensation. We collected laboratory test results, data on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. The mean follow-up time was 62.3 ± 36.5 months. The primary end point was time of liver transplant-free survival. RESULTS: The median survival time was 7.7 years; 60.1% of patients survived for 5 years and 45.7% survived for 10 years without liver transplantation. An MVR was observed in 116 patients (39.3%); these patients had significantly longer times of transplant-free survival than patients without MVR. Survival times associated with the occurrence of HCC; survival of patients without HCC was excellent if they survived the first 6 months after initiation of antiviral therapy, whereas the survival rates of patients with HCC decreased persistently over time. A baseline MELD score above 20 and multiple complications were associated with short-term mortality. MVR was the factor most strongly associated with long-term transplant-free survival. Significantly higher proportions of patients who received entecavir survived 10 years compared with patients who received lamivudine, but no difference was observed among patients with MVRs. Patients with MVRs had significant improvement in hepatic function over time, but nonsignificant reductions in risk of HCC or HCC-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a 10-year observation study of patients in Korea with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis, we found baseline MELD score and MVR to entecavir or lamivudine to associate with short- and long-term transplant-free survival. The benefits of an MVR are maintained for up to 10 years even after decompensation, but patients are still at risk for HCC.

Reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma by achieving a subcirrhotic liver stiffness through antiviral agents in hepatitis B virus-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A subcirrhotic range of liver stiffness (sc-LS), assessed by transient elastography, is associated with better outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We investigated whether the achievement of sc-LS by antiviral therapy (AVT) reduced the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. METHODS: In total, 209 patients with CHB-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, who received paired transient elastography examinations during AVT between 2007 and 2012, were enrolled. The cut-off LS value for ultrasonographic cirrhosis was defined as 11.6 kPa. RESULTS: The median age of the study population was 51 years, with males predominating (n = 138, 66.0%). The median LS value at enrollment was 14.1 kPa (interquartile range: 9.5-24.1 kPa). After 2 years of AVT, 140 (67.0%) patients achieved sc-LS. During the study period, 28 (13.4%) patients developed HCC after 2 years of AVT. On multivariate analysis, the achievement of sc-LS after AVT was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC development (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.485, P = 0.047), whereas older age (HR = 1.071) and male gender (HR = 3.704) were independently associated with an increased HCC risk (both P < 0.05). Patients with a cirrhotic range of LS value after 2 years of AVT were at a higher risk of HCC development than those with sc-LS (log-rank test, P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: The achievement of sc-LS after AVT can reduce the risk of HCC development in patients with CHB, even when advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis is apparent on starting AVT.

Validation of prognostic scores to predict short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The aim of this study was to validate the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF consortium organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), and CLIF-C acute decompensation score in Korean chronic liver disease patients with acute deterioration. METHODS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure was defined by either the Asian Pacific Association for the study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) or CLIF-C criteria. The diagnostic performances for short-term mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Among a total of 1470 patients, 252 patients were diagnosed with ACLF according to the CLIF-C (197 patients) or AARC definition (95 patients). As the ACLF grades increased, the survival rates became significantly lower. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic of the CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs were significantly higher than those of the Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, and model for end-stage liver disease-Na scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition (all P < 0.05), but there were no significant differences in patients without ACLF or in patients with ACLF according to the AARC definition. The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs had higher specificities with a fixed sensitivity than liver specific scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition, but not in ACLF patients according to the AARC definition. CONCLUSIONS: The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs are useful scoring systems that provide accurate information on prognosis in patients with ACLF according to the CLIF-C definition, but not the AARC definition.

Transplantation with autologous bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells for alcoholic cirrhosis: Phase 2 trial.

Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cell (BM-MSC) transplantation has been suggested as an effective therapy for liver cirrhosis. The efficacy and safety of autologous BM-MSC transplantation in the treatment of alcoholic cirrhosis were investigated. Seventy-two patients with baseline biopsy-proven alcoholic cirrhosis who had been alcohol-abstinent for more than 6 months underwent a multicenter, randomized, open-label, phase 2 trial. Patients were randomly assigned to three groups: one control group and two autologous BM-MSC groups that underwent either one-time or two-time hepatic arterial injections of 5 × 107 BM-MSCs 30 days after BM aspiration. A follow-up biopsy was performed 6 months after enrollment, and adverse events were monitored for 12 months. The primary endpoint was improvement in fibrosis quantification based on picrosirius red staining. The secondary endpoints included liver function tests, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score. Outcomes were analyzed by per-protocol analysis. In terms of fibrosis quantification (before versus after), the one-time and two-time BM-MSC groups were associated with 25% (19.5 ± 9.5% versus 14.5 ± 7.1%) and 37% (21.1 ± 8.9% versus 13.2 ± 6.7%) reductions in the proportion of collagen, respectively (P < 0.001). In the intergroup comparison, two-time BM-MSC transplantation in comparison with one-time BM-MSC transplantation was not associated with improved results in fibrosis quantification (P > 0.05). The Child-Pugh scores of both BM-MSC groups (one-time 7.6 ± 1.0 versus 6.3 ± 1.3 and two-time 7.8 ± 1.2 versus 6.8 ± 1.6) were also significantly improved following BM-MSC transplantation (P < 0.05). The proportion of patients with adverse events did not differ among the three groups. CONCLUSION: Autologous BM-MSC transplantation safely improved histologic fibrosis and liver function in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:2185-2197).

Long-term effect of antiviral therapy on disease course after decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis.

UNLABELLED: The effect of viral suppression on long-term disease outcome after decompensation in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis has not been established. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term effect of antiviral therapy (AVT) in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis. This was a multicenter, prospective, inception cohort study of 707 patients who presented with first-onset decompensated complications, including 284 untreated and 423 antiviral-treated patients (58 previously treated, 253 with early treatment, and 112 with delayed treatment). The primary endpoint was 5-year liver transplantation (LT)-free survival. Secondary endpoints included virological response (VR) and serological response and improvement in liver function. Despite baseline high HBV activity and worse liver function, antiviral-treated patients had significantly better transplant-free survival than untreated patients (5-year survival rates of 59.7% vs. 46.0%, respectively), with more apparent benefits from antivirals in Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B/C and high-viremia groups. The rate of VR and hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion at 5 years in antiviral-treated patients was 14.2% and 49.1%, respectively. A significant improvement in liver function was observed in treated versus untreated patients, with 33.9% of treated patients delisted for LT. Patients with early treatment had better clinical outcomes than those with delayed treatment. Survival was dependent on antiviral response, being significantly better in responders than in nonresponders or untreated cases. The initial benefit of AVT was negated over time in nonresponders. Antiviral treatment and maintained VR remained independently predictive of survival. The study results were corroborated by propensity score-matching analysis. CONCLUSION: AVT significantly modifies the natural history of decompensated cirrhosis, improving liver function and increasing survival. The results underscore the importance of promptly administering potent antiviral drugs to patients under consideration for LT.

A multi-time-scale analysis of chemical reaction networks: II. Stochastic systems.

We consider stochastic descriptions of chemical reaction networks in which there are both fast and slow reactions, and for which the time scales are widely separated. We develop a computational algorithm that produces the generator of the full chemical master equation for arbitrary systems, and show how to obtain a reduced equation that governs the evolution on the slow time scale. This is done by applying a state space decomposition to the full equation that leads to the reduced dynamics in terms of certain projections and the invariant distributions of the fast system. The rates or propensities of the reduced system are shown to be the rates of the slow reactions conditioned on the expectations of fast steps. We also show that the generator of the reduced system is a Markov generator, and we present an efficient stochastic simulation algorithm for the slow time scale dynamics. We illustrate the numerical accuracy of the approximation by simulating several examples. Graph-theoretic techniques are used throughout to describe the structure of the reaction network and the state-space transitions accessible under the dynamics.

The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R 0 , k , ω n for MERS-CoV in South Korea.

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R 0 , k , ω n for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters ß (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R 0 , k , ω n , the parameters n , k , and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.

Accuracy of transient elastography in assessing liver fibrosis in chronic viral hepatitis: A multicentre, retrospective study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Transient elastography (TE) has become an alternative to liver biopsy (LB). This study investigated the diagnostic performance of liver stiffness (LS) measurement using TE in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B and C (CHB and CHC). METHODS: From April 2006 to June 2014, 916 patients (567 CHB and 349 CHC) who underwent LB and TE at 15 centres were analyzed. The Batts and Ludwig scoring system was used for histologic assessment. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio indexes (APRI) were calculated. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used. RESULTS: The median age, LS value, and APRI score were 45 years, 8.8 kPa, and 0.61, respectively, in CHB patients vs. 51 years, 6.8 kPa and 0.55, respectively, in CHC patients. TE was significantly superior to APRI in CHB patients (AUROC 0.774 vs. 0.72 for ≥F2, 0.849 vs. 0.812 for ≥F3, and 0.902 vs. 0.707 for F4, respectively; all P < 0.05). Furthermore, TE was significantly superior for predicting ≥ F3 stage (AUROC 0.865 vs. 0.840, P = 0.009) whereas it was similar for predicting ≥ F2 and F4 stage (AUROC 0.822 vs. 0.796; 0.910 vs. 0.884; all P > 0.05) in CHC patients. In CHB patients, optimal cut-off LS values were 7.8 kPa for ≥F2, 8.2 kPa for ≥ F3, and 11.6 kPa for F4, vs. 6.8 kPa, 8.6 kPa, and 14.5 kPa, respectively, in CHC patients. CONCLUSIONS: TE can accurately assess the degree of liver fibrosis in Korean patients with CVH. TE was superior to APRI for predicting each fibrosis stage.

The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach.

In this paper, we present a mathematical model to assess the impact of reducing the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea. The model incorporates important epidemiological parameters, such as transmission rates and mortality rates, to simulate the transmission of the virus under different scenarios. Our findings reveal that the impact of mask wearing fades in the long term, which highlights the crucial role of quarantine in controlling the spread of the disease. In addition, balancing the confirmed cases and costs, the lifting of mandatory indoor mask wearing is cost-effective; however, maintaining the quarantine period remains essential. A relationship between the disease transmission rate and vaccine efficiency was also apparent, with higher transmission rates leading to a greater impact of the vaccine efficiency. Moreover, our findings indicate that a higher disease transmission rate exacerbates the consequences of early quarantine release.

A probability generating function method for stochastic reaction networks.

In this paper we present a probability generating function (PGF) approach for analyzing stochastic reaction networks. The master equation of the network can be converted to a partial differential equation for PGF. Using power series expansion of PGF and Padé approximation, we develop numerical schemes for finding probability distributions as well as first and second moments. We show numerical accuracy of the method by simulating chemical reaction examples such as a binding-unbinding reaction, an enzyme-substrate model, Goldbeter-Koshland ultrasensitive switch model, and G(2)/M transition model.

The economic impact of COVID-19 interventions: A mathematical modeling approach.

Prior to vaccination or drug treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions were almost the only way to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. After vaccines were developed, effective vaccination strategies became important. The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic has caused enormous economic losses worldwide. As such, it is necessary to estimate the economic effects of control policies, including non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination strategies. We estimated the costs associated with COVID-19 according to different vaccination rollout speeds and social distancing levels and investigated effective control strategies for cost minimization. Age-structured mathematical models were developed and used to study disease transmission epidemiology. Using these models, we estimated the actual costs due to COVID-19, considering costs associated with medical care, lost wages, death, vaccination, and gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to social distancing. The lower the social distancing (SD) level, the more important the vaccination rollout speed. SD level 1 was cost-effective under fast rollout speeds, but SD level 2 was more effective for slow rollout speeds. If the vaccine rollout rate is fast enough, even implementing SD level 1 will be cost effective and can control the number of critically ill patients and deaths. If social distancing is maintained at level 2 at the beginning and then relaxed when sufficient vaccinations have been administered, economic costs can be reduced while maintaining the number of patients with severe symptoms below the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Korea has wellequipped medical facilities and infrastructure for rapid vaccination, and the public's desire for vaccination is high. In this case, the speed of vaccine supply is an important factor in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. If the speed of vaccination is fast, it is possible to maintain a low level of social distancing without a significant increase in the number of deaths and hospitalized patients with severe symptoms, and the corresponding costs can be reduced.

A study of the awareness of chronic liver diseases among Korean adults.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Chronic liver disease is closely associated with lifestyle, and public enlightenment of the lifestyle factors is important in reducing prevalence of chronic liver disease. The KASL (Korean Association for the Study of the Liver) conducted a survey of basic information and epidemiological data regarding chronic liver diseases. METHODS: A survey of chronic liver disease involving a total of 2,794 respondents was conducted. The respondents included patients and their guardians, visitors for health check-ups, and online pollees who completed a questionnaire on the awareness of fatty liver or chronic liver disease. RESULTS: Of the entire cohort, 854 (39.7%) said they have had or still have fatty liver or an elevated transaminase level (>40 IU/L), but only 23.4% of the respondents had visited a hospital. It was found that 35% of healthy subjects and 45% of patients and their guardians misunderstood hepatitis B as the hereditary disesase. Furthermore, 26% of the subjects responded that patients with inactive hepatitis B do not require regular follow-up. While 17.9% answered that it is not too late to test for liver cancer when symptoms arise, 38.8% believed that liver transplant in liver cancer patients has a low success rate and is thus not recommended. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the inundation of information and widespread media advertising, the awareness of chronic liver disease is unsatisfactory among Korean adults. Systematic nationwide studies are needed to obtain data and information regarding the prevalence of chronic liver disease and patterns of use of the health-care system.

Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.

Multicenter Analysis of Clinical Features and Prognosis of COVID-19 Patients with Hepatic Impairment.

Background/Aims: Recent data indicate the presence of liver enzyme abnormalities in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to evaluate the clinical features and treatment outcomes of COVID-19 patients with abnormal liver enzymes. Methods: We performed a retrospective, multicenter study of 874 COVID-19 patients admitted to five tertiary hospitals from February 20 to April 14, 2020. Data on clinical features, laboratory parameters, medications, and treatment outcomes were collected until April 30, 2020, and compared between patients with normal and abnormal aminotransferases. Results: Abnormal aminotransferase levels were observed in 362 patients (41.1%), of which 94 out of 130 (72.3%) and 268 out of 744 (36.0%) belonged to the severe and non-severe COVID- 19 categories, respectively. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for male patients, patients with a higher body mass index, patients with severe COVID-19 status, and patients with lower platelet counts were 1.500 (1.029 to 2.184, p=0.035), 1.097 (1.012 to 1.189, p=0.024), 2.377 (1.458 to 3.875, p=0.001), and 0.995 (0.993 to 0.998, p>0.001), respectively, indicating an independent association of these variables with elevated aminotransferase levels. Lopinavir/ ritonavir and antibiotic use increased the odds ratio of abnormal aminotransferase levels after admission (1.832 and 2.646, respectively, both p<0.05). The median time to release from quarantine was longer (22 days vs 26 days, p=0.001) and the mortality rate was higher (13.0% vs 2.9%, p<0.001) in patients with abnormal aminotransferase levels. Conclusions: Abnormal aminotransferase levels are common in COVID-19 patients and are associated with poor clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis of patients with normal aminotransferase levels on admission showed that the use of lopinavir/ritonavir and antibiotics was associated with abnormal aminotransferase levels; thus, careful monitoring is needed.

Diagnostic usefulness of the spot urine sodium/potassium ratio in cirrhotic patients with ascites.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The low-salt diet is considered important for control of ascites in cirrhotic patients. To validate whether the spot urine sodium (Na)/potassium (K) ratio could replace 24-h urine Na (uNa) excretion in assessing low-salt diet compliance. METHODS: We prospectively studied 175 patients. 24-h urine collection and spot urine collection were performed. Subsequently, 24-h uNa, urine creatinine (uCr), and spot urine Na and K were assessed. A complete urine collection was confirmed based on 24-h uCr excretion levels of 15mg/kg/day for men and 10mg/kg/day for women. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the feasibility of spot urine Na/K ratio in predicting 24-h uNa greater than 78mmol/day. RESULTS: Out of 175 patients, 24-h urine samples were completely collected in 57 patients only. Moreover, urine samples were not completely collected in 118 patients because their 24-h uCr excretion level was less than the established criteria. In complete urine collection group, AUROC curve for spot urine Na/K ratio in predicting 24-h uNa greater than 78mmol/day was 0.874±0.051 (P<0.001). In the incomplete urine collection group, the AUROC was 0.832±0.039 (P<0.001). In complete urine collection group, the classical cutoff value greater than 1.0 of spot urine Na/K ratio showed 90.9% sensitivity and 56.0% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: The spot urine Na/K ratio reflects 24-h uNa, but the AUROC value obtained in this study is lower than that of a previous study. Considered the large number of patients with incomplete urine collection, validating 24-h complete urine collection criteria is necessary.

Addition of liver stiffness enhances the predictive accuracy of the PAGE-B model for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) and PAGE-B models reliably predict the risk of developing chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIM(S): To investigate whether the addition of liver stiffness (LS) value, assessed using transient elastography, enhanced the predictive accuracies of these models METHODS: Patients with CHB who started anti-viral therapy (AVT) between 2007 and 2017 were enrolled. The training (Yonsei University Hospital) and validation (seven Korean referral institutes) cohorts contained 1211 and 973 patients, respectively. RESULTS: Based on multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.051, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.031-1.071), male sex (HR = 2.265, 95% CI = 1.463-3.506), lower platelet count (HR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.989-0.997) and greater LS values (HR = 1.015, 95% CI = 1.002-1.028) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Thus, we developed a modified PAGELS -B model (maximum score 34) that included age, male sex, platelet count and LS value. The integrated area under the curve of the modified PAGELS model was greater than those of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models (0.760 vs 0.714 and 0.716, respectively) in the derivation dataset. The cumulative HCC incidence was significantly higher in the high-risk (modified PAGE-BLS score ≥ 24) group than in the intermediate-risk (modified PAGELS -B score 12-24) or low-risk (modified PAGELS -B score < 12) group (all P < 0.001). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive accuracies of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models were validated in Korean patients with CHB receiving AVT. However, the modified PAGELS -B model featuring the addition of LS value showed higher predictability than the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models.

Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests). CONCLUSIONS: The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

Long-term therapy with clevudine for chronic hepatitis B can be associated with myopathy characterized by depletion of mitochondrial DNA.

UNLABELLED: Clevudine (Revovir), a pyrimidine nucleoside analogue, is a recently introduced antiviral drug. Clinical trials have demonstrated potent, sustained antiviral activity against hepatitis B virus without specific adverse events. The lack of cytotoxicity and absence of an effect on mitochondrial function have been considered the reasons for the fewer adverse events. However, it came to our attention that several hepatitis B patients developed myopathy during clevudine therapy. Our study was aimed to analyze the clinical and pathological features of patients with clevudine-induced myopathy with some consideration of its pathogenetic mechanism. Seven hepatitis B patients who developed severe skeletal myopathy during clevudine therapy were examined in this study. The demographic data, clinical features, pathological findings, and molecular studies of these patients were analyzed with speculation about the underlying pathogenic mechanisms. All seven patients were treated with clevudine for more than 8 months (8-13 months). In all, the main symptom was slowly progressive proximal muscular weakness over several months. A markedly elevated creatine kinase level and myopathic patterns on electromyography were found. Muscle biopsies revealed severe myonecrosis associated with numerous ragged red fibers, cytochrome c oxidase-negative fibers, and predominant type II fiber atrophy. Molecular studies using quantitative polymerase chain reaction showed a depletion of the mitochondrial DNA in the patients' skeletal muscle. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of myopathy associated with clevudine therapy. This study has clearly shown that long-term clevudine therapy can induce the depletion of mitochondrial DNA and lead to mitochondrial myopathy associated with myonecrosis. Careful clinical and laboratory attention should be paid to patients on long-term clevudine therapy for this skeletal muscle dysfunction.