Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. RESULTS: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

The moderating effect of mental health and health insurance ownership on the relationships between physical multimorbidity and healthcare utilisation and catastrophic health expenditure in India.

BACKGROUND: The current demographic transition has resulted in the growth of the older population in India, a population group which has a higher chance of being affected by multimorbidity and its subsequent healthcare and economic consequences. However, little attention has been paid to the dual effect of mental health conditions and physical multimorbidity in India. The present study, therefore, aimed to analyse the moderating effects of mental health and health insurance ownership in the association between physical multimorbidity and healthcare utilisation and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). METHODS: We analysed the Longitudinal Aging Study in India, wave 1 (2017-2018). We determined physical multimorbidity by assessing the number of physical conditions. We built multivariable logistic regression models to determine the moderating effect of mental health and health insurance ownership in the association between the number of physical conditions and healthcare utilisation and CHE. Wald tests were used to evaluate if the estimated effects differ across groups defined by the moderating variables. RESULTS: Overall, around one-quarter of adults aged 45 and above had physical multimorbidity, one-third had a mental health condition and 20.5% owned health insurance. Irrespective of having a mental condition and health insurance, physical multimorbidity was associated with increased utilisation of healthcare and CHE. Having an additional mental condition strengthened the adverse effect of physical multimorbidity on increased inpatient service use and experience of CHE. Having health insurance, on the other hand, attenuated the effect of experiencing CHE, indicating a protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: The coexistence of mental health conditions in people with physical multimorbidity increases the demands of healthcare service utilisation and can lead to CHE. The findings point to the need for multidisciplinary interventions for individuals with physical multimorbidity, ensuring their mental health needs are also addressed. Our results urge enhancing health insurance schemes for individuals with mental and physical multimorbidity.

The relative impact of underweight, overweight, smoking, and physical inactivity on health and associated costs in Indonesia: propensity score matching of a national sample.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia is in the middle of a rapid epidemiological transition with an ageing population and increasing exposure to risk factors for chronic conditions. This study examines the relative impacts of obesity, tobacco consumption, and physical inactivity, on non-communicable diseases multimorbidity, health service use, catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and loss in employment productivity in Indonesia. METHODS: Secondary analyses were conducted of cross-sectional data from adults aged ≥ 40 years (n = 12,081) in the Indonesian Family Life Survey 2014/2015. We used propensity score matching to assess the associations between behavioural risk factors and health service use, CHE, employment productivity, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Being obese, overweight and a former tobacco user was associated with a higher number of chronic conditions and multimorbidity (p < 0.05). Being a former tobacco user contributed to a higher number of outpatient and inpatient visits as well as CHE incidences and work absenteeism. Physical inactivity relatively increased the number of outpatient visits (30% increase, p < 0.05) and work absenteeism (21% increase, P < 0.06). Although being underweight was associated with an increased outpatient care utilisation (23% increase, p < 0.05), being overweight was negatively associated with CHE incidences (50% decrease, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Combined together, obesity, overweight, physical inactivity and tobacco use contributed to an increased number of NCDs as well as medical costs and productivity loss in Indonesia. Interventions addressing physical and behavioural risk factors are likely to have substantial benefits for individuals and the wider society in Indonesia.

The prevalence of multimorbidity and its association with physical activity and sleep duration in middle aged and elderly adults: a longitudinal analysis from China.

BACKGROUND: Preventing chronic disease is important in health policy in countries with significantly ageing populations. This study aims to examine the prevalence of chronic disease multimorbidity and its association with physical activity and sleep duration; and to understand whether physical activity modifies associations between sleep duration and multimorbidity. METHODS: We utilized longitudinal data of a nationally-representative sample from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (in year 2011 and 2015; N = 5321; 54.7% female; age ≥ 45 years old). Fourteen chronic diseases were used to measure multimorbidity (ten self-reported, and four by blood test). Participants were grouped into high, moderate, and low level based on self-reported frequencies and durations of physical activity with different intensities for at least 10 min at a time in a usual week. Poor and good sleepers were categorized according to average hours of actual sleep at each night during the past month. Panel data method of random-effects logistic regression model was applied to estimate the association of physical activity and sleep with multimorbidity, adjusting for social-demographic and behavioural confounders. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2015, the prevalence of multimorbidity increased from 52.2 to 62.8%. In 2015, the proportion of participants engaging in high, moderate, and low level of physical activity was 30.3, 24.4 and 45.3%, respectively, and 63.6% of adults had good sleep. For both genders, compared with good sleep, poor sleep was associated with higher odds of multimorbidity (OR = 1.527, 95% CI: 1.277, 1.825). Compared to the high-level group, participants with a low level of physical activity were significantly more likely to have multimorbidity (OR = 1.457, 95% CI: 1.277, 1.825), but associations were stronger among women. The relative excess risk due to interaction between poor sleep and moderate or low physical activity was positive but non-significant on multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of multimorbidity was high in China. Low physical activity and poor sleep was independently and significantly associated with a higher likelihood of multimorbidity in women and both genders, separately. Physical activity could modify the association between sleep and multimorbidity.

Temporal trends and variation in out-of-pocket expenditures and patient cost sharing: evidence from a Chinese national survey 2011-2015.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine: (1) temporal trends in the percentage of cost-sharing and amount of out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) from 2011 to 2015; (2) factors associated with cost-sharing and OOPE; and (3) the relationships between province-level economic development and cost-sharing and OOPE in China. SETTING: A total of 10,316 adults aged ≥45 years from China followed-up from 2011 to 2015 were included in the analysis. We measured two main outcome variables: (1) patient cost sharing, measured by the percentage of OOPE as total healthcare expenditure, and (2) absolute amount of OOPE. RESULTS: Based on self-reported data, we did not find substantial differences in the percentage of cost sharing, but a significant increase in the absolute amount of OOPE among the middle-aged and older Chinese between 2011 and 2015. The percentage of cost-sharing was considerably higher for outpatient than inpatient care, and the majority paid more than 80% of the total cost for prescription drugs. Provinces with higher GDP per capita tend to have lower cost-sharing and a higher OOPE than their counterparts, but the relationship for OOPE became insignificant after adjusting for individual factors. CONCLUSION: Reducing out-of-pocket expenditure and patient cost sharing is required to improve financial protection from illness, especially for those with those with chronic conditions and reside in less developed regions in China. Ongoing monitoring of financial protection using data from various sources is warranted.

The association between mental-physical multimorbidity and disability, work productivity, and social participation in China: a panel data analysis.

BACKGROUND: The co-occurrence of mental and physical chronic conditions (mental-physical multimorbidity) is a growing and largely unaddressed challenge for health systems and wider economies in low-and middle-income countries. This study investigated the independent and combined (additive or synergistic) effects of mental and physical chronic conditions on disability, work productivity, and social participation in China. METHODS: Panel data study design utilised two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011, 2015), including 5616 participants aged ≥45 years, 12 physical chronic conditions and depression. We used a panel data approach of random-effects regression models to assess the relationships between mental-physical multimorbidity and outcomes. RESULTS: After adjusting for socio-economic and demographic factors, an increased number of physical chronic conditions was independently associated with a higher likelihood of disability (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.45), early retirement (AOR = 1.37 [1.26, 1.49]) and increased sick leave days (1.25 days [1.16, 1.35]). Depression was independently associated with disability (AOR = 3.78 [3.30, 4.34]), increased sick leave days (2.18 days [1.72, 2.77]) and a lower likelihood of social participation (AOR = 0.57 [0.47, 0.70]), but not with early retirement (AOR = 1.24 [0.97, 1.58]). There were small and statistically insignificant interactions between physical chronic conditions and mental health on disability, work productivity and social participation, suggesting an additive effect of mental-physical multimorbidity on productivity loss. CONCLUSION: Mental-physical multimorbidity poses substantial negative health and economic effects on individuals, health systems, and societies. More research that addresses the challenges of mental-physical multimorbidity is needed to inform the development of interventions that can be applied to the workplace and the wider community in China.

Effect of multimorbidity on utilisation and out-of-pocket expenditure in Indonesia: quantile regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity (the presence of two or more non-communicable diseases) is a major growing challenge for many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Yet, its effects on health care costs and financial burden for patients have not been adequately studied. This study investigates the effect of multimorbidity across the different percentiles of healthcare utilisation and out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE). METHODS: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the 2014/2015 Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS-5), which included 13,798 respondents aged ≥40 years. Poisson regression was used to assess the association between sociodemographic characteristics and the total number of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), while multivariate logistic regression and quantile regression analysis was used to estimate the associations between multimorbidity, health service use and OOPE. RESULTS: Overall, 20.8% of total participants had two or more NCDs in 2014/2015. The number of NCDs was associated with higher healthcare utilisation (coefficient 0.11, 95% CI 0.07-0.14 for outpatient care and coefficient 0.09 (95% CI 0.02-0.16 for inpatient care) and higher four-weekly OOPE (coefficient 27.0, 95% CI 11.4-42.7). The quantile regression results indicated that the marginal effect of having three or more NCDs on the absolute amount of four-weekly OOPE was smaller for the lower percentiles (at the 25th percentile, coefficient 1.0, 95% CI 0.5-1.5) but more pronounced for the higher percentile of out-of-pocket spending distribution (at the 90th percentile, coefficient 31.0, 95% CI 15.9-46.2). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is positively correlated with health service utilisation and OOPE and has a significant effect, especially among those in the upper tail of the utilisation/costs distribution. Health financing strategies are urgently required to meet the needs of patients with multimorbidity, particularly for vulnerable groups that have a higher level of health care utilisation.

Patients with more comorbidities have better detection of chronic conditions, but poorer management and control: findings from six middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rising rapidly in middle-income countries (MICs), where NCDs are often undiagnosed, untreated and uncontrolled. How comorbidity impacts diagnosis, treatment, and control of NCDs is an emerging area of research inquiry and have important clinical implications as highlighted in the recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines for treating patients suffering from multiple NCDs. This is the first study to examine the association between increasing numbers of comorbidities with being undiagnosed, untreated, and uncontrolled for NCDs, in 6 large MICs. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of the World Health Organisation Study of Global Ageing and Adult Health (WHO SAGE) Wave 1 (2007-10), which consisted of adults aged ≥18 years from 6 populous MICs, including China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa (overall n = 41, 557). RESULTS: A higher number of comorbidities was associated with better odds of diagnosis for hypertension, angina, and arthritis, and higher odds of having treatment for hypertension and angina. However, more comorbidities were associated with increased odds of uncontrolled hypertension, angina, arthritis, and asthma. Comorbidity with concordant conditions was associated with improved diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and angina. CONCLUSION: Patients with more comorbidities have better diagnosis of chronic conditions, but this does not translate into better management and control of these conditions. Patients with multiple NCDs are high users of health services and are at an increased risk of adverse health outcomes. Hence, improving their access to care is a priority for healthcare systems.

Progress towards reducing sociodemographic disparities in breastfeeding outcomes in Indonesia: a trend analysis from 2002 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Improving breastfeeding practice is important for reducing child health inequalities and achieving several Sustainable Development Goals. Indonesia has enacted legislation to promote optimal breastfeeding practices in recent years. We examined breastfeeding practices among Indonesian women from 2002 to 2017, comparing trends within and across sociodemographic subgroups. METHODS: Data from four waves of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys were used to estimate changes in breastfeeding practices among women from selected sociodemographic groups over time. We examined three breastfeeding outcomes: (1) early initiation of breastfeeding; (2) exclusive breastfeeding; and (3) continued breastfeeding at 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess changes in time trends of each outcome across population groups. RESULTS: The proportion of women reporting early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding increased significantly between 2002 to 2017 (p < 0.05), with larger increases among women who: were from higher wealth quintiles; worked in professional sectors; and lived in Java and Bali. However, 42.7% of women reported not undertaking early initiation of breastfeeding, and 48.9% of women reported not undertaking exclusive breastfeeding in 2017. Women who were employees had lower exclusive breastfeeding prevalence, compared to unemployed or self-employed women. Women in Java and Bali had higher increase in early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding compared to women in Sumatra. We did not find statistically significant decline in continued breastfeeding at 1 year over time for the overall population, except among women who: were from the second poorest wealth quintile; lived in rural areas; did not have a health facility birth; and lived in Kalimantan and Sulawesi (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: There were considerable improvements in breastfeeding practices in Indonesia during a period of sustained policy reform to regulate breastfeeding and community support of breastfeeding, but these were not distributed uniformly across socioeconomic, occupation and geographic subgroups. Concerted efforts are needed to further reduce inequities in breastfeeding practice through both targeted and population-based strategies.

Rural and urban differences in health system performance among older Chinese adults: cross-sectional analysis of a national sample.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvement in health outcomes over the past few decades, China still experiences striking rural-urban health inequalities. There is limited research on the rural-urban differences in health system performance in China. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to compare health system performance between rural and urban areas in five key domains of the health system: effectiveness, cost, access, patient-centredness and equity, using data from the WHO Study on Global AGEing and adult health (SAGE), China. Multiple logistic and linear regression models were used to assess the first four domains, adjusting for individual characteristics, and a relative index of inequality (RII) was used to measure the equity domain. FINDINGS: Compared to urban areas, rural areas had poorer performance in the management and control of hypertension and diabetes, with more than 50% lower odds of having breast (AOR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.64) and cervical cancer screening (AOR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.83). There was better performance in rural areas in the patient-centredness domain, with more than twice higher odds of getting prompt attention, respect, clarity of the communication with health provider and involvement in decision making of the treatment in inpatient care (AOR = 2.56, 2.15, 2.28, 2.28). Although rural residents incurred relatively less out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) for outpatient and inpatient services than urban residents, they were more likely to incur catastrophic expenditures on health (AOR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.16, 1.44). Wealth inequality was found in many indicators related to the effectiveness, costs and access domains in both rural and urban areas. Rural areas had greater inequalities in the management of hypertension and coverage of cervical cancer (RII = 7.45 vs 1.64). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that urban areas have achieved better prevention and management of non-communicable disease than rural areas, but access to healthcare was equivalent. A better understanding of the causes of the observed variations is needed to develop appropriate policy interventions which address these disparities.

Comorbid Depression and Obesity: Correlates and Synergistic Association With Noncommunicable Diseases Among Australian Men.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity and depression are among the leading causes of disease worldwide. Their bidirectional relationship often results in comorbid depression and obesity, which further increases the risk of adverse health outcomes. Further evidence is needed on the correlates and synergistic association with other noncommunicable diseases. The objective of our study was to examine the correlates and synergistic association of comorbid depression and obesity with other noncommunicable diseases in a large sample of Australian men. METHODS: Our cross-sectional study used data on 13,763 men aged 18 to 55 from the first wave (2013-2014) of the Australian Ten to Men study. Body mass index was calculated from self-reported weight and height. The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 was used to assess depression. We calculated the weighted prevalence of depression, obesity, and comorbid depression and obesity and examined correlates of comorbid depression and obesity by using logistic regression. We used the synergy index to measure the synergistic association of depression and obesity with other noncommunicable diseases. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of depression, obesity, and comorbid depression and obesity among Australian men were 12.5%, 22.2%, and 3.7%, respectively. Age, marital status, area-level socioeconomic index, educational attainment, household income, employment status, and physical activity were significantly associated with comorbid depression and obesity. Men with comorbid depression and obesity, compared with men without comorbid depression and obesity, had 7.6 times the risk of diabetes and 6.7 times the risk of hypertension. CONCLUSION: Co-occurrence of depression and obesity among Australian men is associated with a set of individual- and area-level correlates and a higher risk of noncommunicable diseases. The correlates identified in our study are useful in planning interventions and screening in primary care settings.

The Joint Effect of Physical Multimorbidity and Mental Health Conditions Among Adults in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of chronic physical and mental health conditions is rising globally. Little evidence exists on the joint effect of physical and mental health conditions on health care use, work productivity, and health-related quality of life in Australia. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, waves 9 (2009), 13 (2013), and 17 (2017). Economic effects associated with multimorbidity were measured through health service use, work productivity loss, and health-related quality of life. We used generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of the association between physical multimorbidity and mental health conditions and economic outcomes. RESULTS: From 2009 through 2017 the prevalence of physical multimorbidity increased from 15.1% to 16.2%, and the prevalence of mental health conditions increased from 11.2% to 17.3%. The number of physical health conditions was associated with the number of health services used (general practitioner visits, incidence rate ratio = 1.41), work productivity loss (labor force participation, adjusted odds ratio = 0.71), and reduced health-related quality of life (SF-6D score: Coefficient = -0.03). These effects were exacerbated by the presence of mental health conditions and low socioeconomic status. CONCLUSION: Having multiple physical health conditions (physical multimorbidity) creates substantial health and financial burdens on individuals, the health system, and society, including increased use of health services, loss of work productivity, and decreased health-related quality of life. The adverse effects of multimorbidity on health, quality of life, and economic well-being are exacerbated by the co-occurrence of mental health conditions and low socioeconomic status.

Price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, EconLit and the Web of Science without language or time restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers screened title and abstracts, then full texts, independently and in duplicate. We based eligibility criteria on study design (interventional or observational), population (individuals or communities without geographic restrictions), intervention (price change) and outcome (change in demand). DATA EXTRACTION: We abstracted data on study features, outcome measures, statistical approach, and single best own- and cross-price elasticity estimates with respect to cigarettes. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis for estimates of similar product, outcome and country income level. For other studies we reported median elasticities by product and country income level. DATA SYNTHESIS: We analysed 36 studies from 15 countries yielding 125 elasticity estimates. A 10% price increase would reduce demand by: 8.3% for cigars (95% CI 2.9 to 13.8), 6.4% for roll your owns (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4), 5.7% for bidis (95% CI 4.3 to 7.1) and 2.1% for smokeless tobacco (95% CI -0.6 to 4.8). Median price elasticities for all ten products were also negative. Results from few studies that examined cross-price elasticity suggested a positive substitution effect between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products. CONCLUSIONS: There is sufficient evidence in support of the effectiveness of price increases to reduce consumption of non-cigarette tobacco products as it is for cigarettes. Positive substitutability between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products suggest that tax and price increases need to be simultaneous and comparable across all tobacco products.

Are cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management programmes cost effective? A systematic review of the evidence.

The World Health Organization recommends that countries implement population-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management programmes. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate whether this recommendation is supported by cost-effectiveness evidence. Published economic evaluations were identified via electronic medical and social science databases (including Medline, Web of Science, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) from inception to March 2016. Study quality was evaluated using a modified version of the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. Fourteen economic evaluations were included: five studies based on randomised controlled trials, seven studies based on observational studies and two studies using hypothetical modelling synthesizing secondary data. Trial based studies measured CVD risk factor changes over 1 to 3years, with modelled projections of longer term events. Programmes were either not, or only, cost-effective under non-verified assumptions such as sustained risk factor changes. Most observational and hypothetical studies suggested programmes were likely to be cost-effective; however, study deigns are subject to bias and subsequent empirical evidence has contradicted key assumptions. No studies assessed impacts on inequalities. In conclusion, recommendations for population-wide risk assessment and management programmes lack a robust, real world, evidence basis. Given implementation is resource intensive there is a need for robust economic evaluation, ideally conducted alongside trials, to assess cost effectiveness. Further, the efficiency and equity impact of different delivery models should be investigated, and also the combination of targeted screening with whole population interventions recognising that there multiple approaches to prevention.

Impact of the National Health Service Health Check on cardiovascular disease risk: a difference-in-differences matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service Health Check program in England is the largest cardiovascular risk assessment and management program in the world. We assessed the effect of this program on modelled risk of cardiovascular disease, individual risk factors for cardiovascular disease, prescribing of relevant medications and diagnosis of vascular disease. METHODS: We obtained retrospective electronic medical records for a randomly selected sample of 138 788 patients aged 40-74 years registered with 462 English general practices participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2009 and 2013. We used a quasi-experimental design of difference-indifferences matching analysis to compare changes in outcomes between Health Check attendees and nonattendees, with a median follow-up time of 2 years. RESULTS: Overall, 21.4% of the eligible population attended a Health Check. After matching (n = 29 672 in each group), attendees had a significant absolute reduction in modelled risk for cardiovascular disease (-0.21%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.24% to -0.19%) and individual risk factors: systolic blood pressure (-2.51 mm Hg, 95% CI -2.77 to -2.25 mm Hg), diastolic blood pressure (-1.46 mm Hg, 95% CI -1.62 to -1.29 mm Hg), body mass index (-0.27, 95% CI -0.34 to -0.20) and total cholesterol (-0.15 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.18 to -0.13 mmol/L). Statins were prescribed for 39.9% of attendees who were at high risk for cardiovascular disease. The program resulted in significantly more diagnoses of selected vascular diseases among attendees, with the largest increases for hypertension (2.99%) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (1.31%). INTERPRETATION: The National Health Service Health Check program had statistically significant but clinically modest impacts on modelled risk for cardiovascular disease and individual risk factors, although diagnosis of vascular disease increased. Overall program performance was substantially below national and international targets, which highlights the need for careful planning, monitoring and evaluation of similar initiatives internationally.

Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking Prevalence and Correlates in 25 Eastern Mediterranean and Eastern European Countries: Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Waterpipe tobacco smoking is highly prevalent among young people in some settings. There is an absence of nationally representative prevalence studies of waterpipe tobacco use and dual use with other tobacco products in young people. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional study of students aged 13-15 years. Of 180 participating countries, 25 included optional waterpipe tobacco smoking questions: 15 Eastern Mediterranean and 10 Eastern European countries. We calculated the prevalence of current (past 30-day) waterpipe tobacco use, including dual waterpipe and other tobacco use, and used logistic regression models to identify sociodemographic correlates of waterpipe tobacco smoking. Individual country results were combined in a random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Waterpipe tobacco smoking prevalence was highest in Lebanon (36.9%), the West Bank (32.7%) and parts of Eastern Europe (Latvia 22.7%, the Czech Republic 22.1%, Estonia 21.9%). These countries also recorded greater than 10% prevalence of dual waterpipe and cigarette use. In a meta-analysis, higher odds of waterpipe tobacco smoking were found among males (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18% to 1.59%), cigarette users (AOR = 6.95, 95% CI = 5.74% to 8.42%), those whose parents (AOR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.31% to 1.82%) or peers smoked (AOR = 3.53, 95% CI = 2.97% to 4.20%) and those whose parents had higher educational attainment (Father, AOR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.14% to 1.89%; Mother, AOR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.07% to 2.46%). We report on regional- and country income-level differences. CONCLUSIONS: Waterpipe tobacco smoking, including dual waterpipe and cigarette use, is alarmingly high in several Eastern Mediterranean and Eastern European countries. Ongoing waterpipe tobacco smoking surveillance is warranted.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Secondhand Smoke Exposure at Home and at Work in 15 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

INTRODUCTION: In high-income countries, secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is higher among disadvantaged groups. We examine socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure at home and at workplace in 15 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Secondary analyses of cross-sectional data from 15 LMICs participating in Global Adult Tobacco Survey (participants ≥ 15 years; 2008-2011) were used. Country-specific analyses using regression-based methods were used to estimate the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure: (1) Relative Index of Inequality and (2) Slope Index of Inequality. RESULTS: SHS exposure at home ranged from 17.4% in Mexico to 73.1% in Vietnam; exposure at workplace ranged from 16.9% in Uruguay to 65.8% in Bangladesh. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Uruguay, Poland, Turkey, Ukraine, and Egypt, SHS exposure at home reduced with increasing wealth (Relative Index of Inequality range: 1.13 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.22] in Turkey to 3.31 [95% CI 2.91-3.77] in Thailand; Slope Index of Inequality range: 0.06 [95% CI 0.02-0.11] in Turkey to 0.43 [95% CI 0.38-0.48] in Philippines). In these 11 countries, and in China, SHS exposure at home reduced with increasing education. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Philippines, SHS exposure at workplace reduced with increasing wealth. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Poland, Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine, and Egypt, SHS exposure at workplace reduced with increasing education. CONCLUSION: SHS exposure at homes is higher among the socioeconomically disadvantaged in the majority of LMICs studied; at workplaces, exposure is higher among the less educated. Pro-equity tobacco control interventions alongside targeted efforts in these groups are recommended to reduce inequalities in SHS exposure. IMPLICATIONS: SHS exposure is higher among the socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in high-income countries. Comprehensive smoke-free policies are pro-equity for certain health outcomes that are strongly influenced by SHS exposure. Using nationally representative Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2008-2011) data from 15 LMICs, we studied socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure at homes and at workplaces. The study showed that in most LMICs, SHS exposure at homes is higher among the poor and the less educated. At workplaces, SHS exposure is higher among the less educated groups. Accelerating implementation of pro-equity tobacco control interventions and strengthening of efforts targeted at the socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are needed to reduce inequalities in SHS exposure in LMICs.

Smoke-free legislation and childhood hospitalisations for respiratory tract infections.

Second-hand smoke exposure is a major risk factor for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Although evidence suggests important early-life health benefits of smoke-free public environments, the impact on childhood RTIs is unclear. We investigated the association between England's smoke-free legislation and childhood RTI hospitalisations.We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database to obtain nationwide data on hospital admissions for acute RTIs among children (<15 years of age) from 2001 to 2012. Hospitalisation counts were disaggregated by month, age group, sex and small-area level, and linked to urbanisation, region, deprivation index and corresponding population estimates. Negative binomial regression analyses were adjusted for confounders, seasonal variation, temporal autocorrelation, population-size changes and underlying incidence trends. Models allowed for sudden and gradual changes following the smoke-free legislation. We performed sensitivity and subgroup analyses, and estimated number of events prevented.We analysed 1 651 675 hospital admissions. Introduction of smoke-free legislation was followed by an immediate reduction in RTI admissions (-3.5%, 95% CI -4.7- -2.3%), this mainly being attributable to a decrease in lower RTI admissions (-13.8%, 95% CI -15.6- -12.0%). The reductions in admissions for upper RTI were more incremental.The introduction of national smoke-free legislation in England was associated with ∼11 000 fewer hospital admissions per year for RTIs in children.

Associations between active travel and weight, blood pressure and diabetes in six middle income countries: a cross-sectional study in older adults.

BACKGROUND: There is little published data on the potential health benefits of active travel in low and middle-income countries. This is despite increasing levels of adiposity being linked to increases in physical inactivity and non-communicable diseases. This study will examine: (1) socio-demographic correlates of using active travel (walking or cycling for transport) among older adults in six populous middle-income countries (2) whether use of active travel is associated with adiposity, systolic blood pressure and self-reported diabetes in these countries. METHODS: Data are from the WHO Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) of China, India, Mexico, Ghana, Russia and South Africa with a total sample size of 40,477. Correlates of active travel (≥150 min/week) were examined using logistic regression. Logistic and linear regression analyses were used to examine health related outcomes according to three groups of active travel use per week. RESULTS: 46.4% of the sample undertook ≥150 min of active travel per week (range South Africa: 21.9% Ghana: 57.8%). In pooled analyses those in wealthier households were less likely to meet this level of active travel (Adjusted Risk Ratio (ARR) 0.77, 95% Confidence Intervals 0.67; 0.88 wealthiest fifth vs. poorest). Older people and women were also less likely to use active travel for ≥150 min per week (ARR 0.71, 0.62; 0.80 those aged 70+ years vs. 18-29 years old, ARR 0.82, 0.74; 0.91 women vs. men). In pooled fully adjusted analyses, high use of active travel was associated with lower risk of overweight (ARR 0.71, 0.59; 0.86), high waist-to-hip ratio (ARR 0.71, 0.61; 0.84) and lower BMI (-0.54 kg/m(2), -0.98;- 0.11). Moderate (31-209 min/week) and high use (≥210 min/week) of active travel was associated with lower waist circumference (-1.52 cm (-2.40; -0.65) and -2.16 cm (3.07; -1.26)), and lower systolic blood pressure (-1.63 mm/Hg (-3.19; -0.06) and -2.33 mm/Hg (-3.98; -0.69)). CONCLUSIONS: In middle-income countries use of active travel for ≥150 min per week is more common in lower socio-economic groups and appears to confer similar health benefits to those identified in high-income settings. Efforts to increase active travel levels should be integral to strategies to maintain healthy weight and reduce disease burden in these settings.

Coverage of a national cardiovascular risk assessment and management programme (NHS Health Check): Retrospective database study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine coverage of NHS Health Check, a national cardiovascular risk assessment programme in England, in the first four years after implementation, and to examine prevalence of high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and uptake of statins in high risk patients. METHOD: Study sample was 95,571 patients in England aged 40-74years continuously registered with 509 practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between April 2009 and March 2013. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to assess predictors of Health Check attendance; elevated CVD risk factors and statin prescribing among attendees. RESULTS: Programme coverage was 21.4% over four years, with large variations between practices (0%-72.7%) and regions (9.4%-30.7%). Coverage was higher in older patients (adjusted odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval 2.49-3.31 for patients 70-74years) and in patients with a family history of premature coronary heart disease (2.37, 2.22-2.53), but lower in Black Africans (0.75, 0.61-0.92) and Chinese (0.68, 0.47-0.96) compared with White British. Coverage was similar in patients living in deprived and affluent areas. Prevalence of high CVD risk (QRISK2≥20%) among attendees was 4.6%. One third (33.6%) of attendees at high risk were prescribed a statin after Health Checks. CONCLUSIONS: Coverage of the programme and statin prescribing in high risk individuals was low. Coverage was similar in deprived and affluent groups but lower in some ethnic minority groups, possibly widening inequalities. These findings raise a question about whether recommendations by WHO to develop CVD risk assessment programmes internationally will deliver anticipated health benefits.