Contribution of local rarity and climatic suitability to local extinction and colonization varies with species traits.

Changes in species distributions through local extinction and colonization events are a major consequence of climate change. The mechanisms underlying these processes, however, are yet to be fully understood. We investigate the effects of climatic suitability and local rarity on local extinction and colonization of British birds. We test the hypothesis that local extinction and colonization on decadal scales are driven by both climatic suitability and the prevalence of the species within an area and that the balance between these two is affected by species traits. We use spatially explicit conditional autoregressive models to determine the effect size of local rarity and climatic suitability (extracted from climate envelope models) on local extinction and colonization events. We then use phylogenetically constrained, generalized least-square models to estimate the association of extinction and colonization predictors with body mass, clutch size and national range of each species. Both local rarity and climatic suitability of an area contributed to local extinctions and colonizations, but the importance of these predictors varied between species. This interspecific variation was explained, in part, by species traits, in particular national range, which influenced the importance of local rarity and climatic suitability to both local extinction and colonization. These results further our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying changes in species occupancy due to climate change. This can inform predictive models as well as contribute to more focussed avian conservation efforts.

Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation.

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.

Trait assembly in plant assemblages and its modulation by productivity and disturbance.

Understanding how communities assemble is a key challenge in ecology. Conflicting hypotheses suggest that plant traits within communities should show divergence to reflect strategies to reduce competition or convergence to reflect strong selection for the environmental conditions operating. Further hypotheses suggest that plant traits related to productivity show convergence within communities, but those related to disturbance show divergence. Data on functional diversity (FD(var)) of 12 traits from 30 communities ranging from arable fields, mown and grazed grasslands to moorland and woodland were employed to test this using randomisations tests and correlation and regression analysis. No traits showed consistent significant convergence or divergence in functional diversity. When correlated to measures of the environment, the most common pattern was for functional diversity to decline (7 out of 12 traits) and the degree of convergence (7 out of 12 traits) to increase as the levels of productivity (measured as primary productivity, soil nitrogen release and vegetation C:N) and disturbance increased. Convergence or a relationship between functional diversity and the environment was not seen for a number of important traits, such as LDMC and SLA, which are considered as key predictors of ecosystem function. The analysis indicates that taking into account functional diversity within a system may be a necessary part of predicting the relationship between plant traits and ecosystem function, and that this may be of particular importance within less productive and less disturbed systems.

Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds.

Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

Spatial and temporal ecology of Scots pine ectomycorrhizas.

Spatial analysis was used to explore the distribution of individual species in an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal community to address: whether mycorrhizas of individual ECM fungal species were patchily distributed, and at what scale; and what the causes of this patchiness might be. Ectomycorrhizas were extracted from spatially explicit samples of the surface organic horizons of a pine plantation. The number of mycorrhizas of each ECM fungal species was recorded using morphotyping combined with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing. Semivariograms, kriging and cluster analyses were used to determine both the extent and scale of spatial autocorrelation in species abundances, potential interactions between species, and change over time. The mycorrhizas of some, but not all, ECM fungal species were patchily distributed and the size of patches differed between species. The relative abundance of individual ECM fungal species and the position of patches of ectomycorrhizas changed between years. Spatial and temporal analysis revealed a dynamic ECM fungal community with many interspecific interactions taking place, despite the homogeneity of the host community. The spatial pattern of mycorrhizas was influenced by the underlying distribution of fine roots, but local root density was in turn influenced by the presence of specific fungal species.

Does functional homogenization accompany taxonomic homogenization of British birds and how do biotic factors and climate affect these processes?

Environmental change has reshuffled communities often causing taxonomic homogenization rather than differentiation. Some studies suggest that this increasing similarity of species composition between communities is accompanied by an increase in similarity of trait composition-functional homogenization-although different methodologies have failed to come to any consistent conclusions. Functional homogenization could have a large effect on ecosystem functioning and stability. Here, we use the general definition of homogenization as "reduced spatial turnover over time" to compare changes in Simpson's beta diversity (taxonomic turnover) with changes in Rao's quadratic entropy beta diversity (functional turnover) in British breeding birds at three spatial scales. Using biotic and climatic variables, we identify which factors may predispose a site to homogenization. The change in turnover measures between two time periods, 20 years apart, was calculated. A null model approach was taken to identify occurrences of functional homogenization and differentiation independent of changes in taxonomic turnover. We used conditional autoregressive models fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to determine how environmental drivers and factors relating to species distributions affect changes in spatial turnover of species and functional diversity. The measurement of functional homogenization affects the chance of rejection of the null models, with many sites showing taxonomic homogenization unaccompanied by functional homogenization, although occurrence varies with spatial scale. At the smallest scale, while temperature-related variables drive changes in taxonomic turnover, changes in functional turnover are associated with variation in growing degree days; however, changes in functional turnover become more difficult to predict at larger spatial scales. Our results highlight the multifactorial processes underlying taxonomic and functional homogenization and that redundancy in species traits may allow ecosystem functioning to be maintained in some areas despite changes in species composition.

Spatial turnover in the global avifauna.

Despite its wide implications for many ecological issues, the global pattern of spatial turnover in the occurrence of species has been little studied, unlike the global pattern of species richness. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we present the first global maps of variation in spatial turnover for an entire taxonomic class, a pattern that has to date remained largely a matter of conjecture, based on theoretical expectations and extrapolation of inconsistent patterns from different biogeographic realms. We use these maps to test four predictions from niche theory as to the form that this variation should take, namely that turnover should increase with species richness, towards lower latitudes, and with the steepness of environmental gradients and that variation in turnover is determined principally by rare (restricted) species. Contrary to prediction, we show that turnover is high both in areas of extremely low and high species richness, does not increase strongly towards the tropics, and is related both to average environmental conditions and spatial variation in those conditions. These results are closely associated with a further important and novel finding, namely that global patterns of spatial turnover are driven principally by widespread species rather than the restricted ones. This complements recent demonstrations that spatial patterns of species richness are also driven principally by widespread species, and thus provides an important contribution towards a unified model of how terrestrial biodiversity varies both within and between the Earth's major land masses.

A multivariate analysis of beta diversity across organisms and environments.

We examined variability in hierarchical beta diversity across ecosystems, geographical gradients, and organism groups using multivariate spatial mixed modeling analysis of two independent data sets. The larger data set comprised reported ratios of regional species richness (RSR) to local species richness (LSR) and the second data set consisted of RSR:LSR ratios derived from nested species-area relationships. There was a negative, albeit relatively weak, relationship between beta diversity and latitude. We found only relatively subtle differences in beta diversity among the realms, yet beta diversity was lower in marine systems than in terrestrial or freshwater realms. Beta diversity varied significantly among organisms' major characteristics such as body mass, trophic position, and dispersal type in the larger data set. Organisms that disperse via seeds had highest beta diversity, and passively dispersed organisms showed the lowest beta diversity. Furthermore, autotrophs had lower beta diversity than organisms higher up the food web; omnivores and carnivores had consistently higher beta diversity. This is evidence that beta diversity is simultaneously controlled by extrinsic factors related to geography and environment, and by intrinsic factors related to organism characteristics.

Temperature rise and parasitic infection interact to increase the impact of an invasive species.

Invasive species often detrimentally impact native biota, e.g. through predation, but predicting such impacts is difficult due to multiple and perhaps interacting abiotic and biotic context dependencies. Higher mean and peak temperatures, together with parasites, might influence the impact of predatory invasive host species additively, synergistically or antagonistically. Here, we apply the comparative functional response methodology (relationship between resource consumption rate and resource supply) in one experiment and conduct a second scaled-up mesocosm experiment to assess any differential predatory impacts of the freshwater invasive amphipod Gammarus pulex, when uninfected and infected with the acanthocephalan Echinorhynchus truttae, at three temperatures representative of current and future climate. Individual G. pulex showed Type II predatory functional responses. In both experiments, infection was associated with higher maximum feeding rates, which also increased with increasing temperatures. Additionally, infection interacted with higher temperatures to synergistically elevate functional responses and feeding rates. Parasitic infection also generally increased Q10 values. We thus suggest that the differential metabolic responses of the host and parasite to increasing temperatures drives the synergy between infection and temperature, elevating feeding rates and thus enhancing the ecological impact of the invader.

The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships.

Species-area relationships (SAR) are fundamental in the understanding of biodiversity patterns and of critical importance for predicting species extinction risk worldwide. Despite the enormous attention given to SAR in the form of many individual analyses, little attempt has been made to synthesize these studies. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of 794 SAR, comprising a wide span of organisms, habitats and locations. We identified factors reflecting both pattern-based and dynamic approaches to SAR and tested whether these factors leave significant imprints on the slope and strength of SAR. Our analysis revealed that SAR are significantly affected by variables characterizing the sampling scheme, the spatial scale, and the types of organisms or habitats involved. We found that steeper SAR are generated at lower latitudes and by larger organisms. SAR varied significantly between nested and independent sampling schemes and between major ecosystem types, but not generally between the terrestrial and the aquatic realm. Both the fit and the slope of the SAR were scale-dependent. We conclude that factors dynamically regulating species richness at different spatial scales strongly affect the shape of SAR. We highlight important consequences of this systematic variation in SAR for ecological theory, conservation management and extinction risk predictions.

Coherence and discontinuity in the scaling of species' distribution patterns.

The spatial distribution of a species can be characterized at many different spatial scales, from fine-scale measures of local population density to coarse-scale geographical-range structure. Previous studies have shown a degree of correlation in species' distribution patterns across narrow ranges of scales, making it possible to predict fine-scale properties from coarser-scale distributions. To test the limits of such extrapolation, we have compiled distributional information on 16 species of British plants, at scales ranging across six orders of magnitude in linear resolution (1 m to 100 km). As expected, the correlation between patterns at different spatial scales tends to degrade as the scales become more widely separated. There is, however, an abrupt breakdown in cross-scale correlations across intermediate (ca. 0.5 km) scales, suggesting that local and regional patterns are influenced by essentially non-overlapping sets of processes. The scaling discontinuity may also reflect characteristic scales of human land use in Britain, suggesting a novel method for analysing the 'footprint' of humanity on a landscape.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

The role of ecological theory in microbial ecology.

Microbial ecology is currently undergoing a revolution, with repercussions spreading throughout microbiology, ecology and ecosystem science. The rapid accumulation of molecular data is uncovering vast diversity, abundant uncultivated microbial groups and novel microbial functions. This accumulation of data requires the application of theory to provide organization, structure, mechanistic insight and, ultimately, predictive power that is of practical value, but the application of theory in microbial ecology is currently very limited. Here we argue that the full potential of the ongoing revolution will not be realized if research is not directed and driven by theory, and that the generality of established ecological theory must be tested using microbial systems.