Practitioners' views on community implementation of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in the UK: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Implementing Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in community practice could help to decide upon and prioritise initial treatment, procedures and appropriate specialist referral or conveyance to hospital. A recent literature review suggests that image quality, portability and cost of ultrasound devices are all improving with widening indications for community POCUS, but evidence about community POCUS use is needed in the UK. We aimed to explore views of clinical practitioners, actively using ultrasound, on their experiences of using POCUS and potential facilitators and barriers to its wider implementation in community settings in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative interview study with practitioners from community and secondary care settings actively using POCUS in practice. A convenience sample of eligible participants from different clinical specialties and settings was recruited using social media adverts, through websites of relevant research groups and snowball sampling. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted online using Microsoft Teams. These were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using a Framework approach supported by NVivo 12. RESULTS: We interviewed 16 practitioners aged between 40 and 62 years from different professional backgrounds, including paramedics, emergency physicians, general practitioners, and allied health professionals. Participants identified key considerations and facilitators for wider implementation of POCUS in community settings in the UK: resource requirements for deployment and support of working devices; sufficient time and a skilled workforce; attention to training, education and support needs; ensuring proper governance, guidelines and quality assurance; workforce considerations; enabling ease of use in assisting decision making with consideration of unintended consequences; and more robust evidence to support perceptions of improved patient outcomes and experience. CONCLUSIONS: POCUS could be useful for improving patient journey and health outcomes in community care, but this requires further research to evaluate outcomes. The facilitators identified could help make community POCUS a reality.

Oral health in an urban slum, Nigeria: residents' perceptions, practices and care-seeking experiences.

BACKGROUND/INTRODUCTION: One of the key recommendations for the new WHO global strategy for oral health is inclusion of disadvantaged populations and their engagement in policy dialogues such that their needs and views are addressed in policy decisions. OBJECTIVES: This study explored oral health perceptions, practices and care-seeking experiences of slum residents in Ibadan, Nigeria. METHOD: Focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with family health-decision makers in an urban slum site. Oral health perceptions, practices, and care-seeking experiences were discussed. FGDs were recorded, transcribed, and translated. ATLAS.ti qualitative research software was deployed for analysis using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Six FGD sessions, divided by gender and age, were conducted between September-October 2019, (N = total 58 participants, aged 25 to 59 years). Common dental ailments mentioned were dental pain, tooth sensitivity, bleeding gums, tooth decay, mouth odor, gum disease, and tooth fracture. Perceived causes of dental conditions included poor dental hygiene and habits, sugary diets, ignorance, and supernatural forces. Mouth cleaning was mostly done once daily using toothbrush and paste. Other cleaning tools were ground glass, wood ash, charcoal, "epa Ijebu" (a dentrifice), and "orin ata" (a type of chewing stick). Remedies for relieving dental pain included over-the-counter medicines, warm salted water, gin, tobacco (snuff/powdered), cow urine/dung, battery fluid, and various mixtures/ concoctions. Visits to the dentists were mentioned by a few but this was usually as last resort. Main barriers to accessing care from dental care facilities were unaffordability of service charges and fear of extreme treatment measures (extraction). Suggested measures to improve timely access to dental health care included reducing/subsidizing costs of treatments and medications, offering non-extraction treatment options, and oral health education programmes. CONCLUSION: The slum residents experience various forms of dental ailments mostly pain-related. The residents perceived formal dental clinics as unaffordable, thereby engaging in self-care remedies and harmful oral health practices before seeking professional help. Policymakers and decision-makers may leverage this empirical evidence for the people's education on early dental care and address challenges to affordable, available, and acceptable oral healthcare services among slum residents to improve access to care facilities.

The impact of diarrhoea measurement methods for under 5s in low- and middle-income countries on estimated diarrhoea rates at the population level: A systematic review and meta-analysis of methodological and primary empirical studies.

OBJECTIVE: We systematically reviewed all studies published between 2000 and June 2021 that estimated under 5 diarrhoea rates in low- and middle-income countries and extracted data on diarrhoea rates, measurement methods and reactivity. METHODS: We summarised data from studies that performed direct comparisons of methods, and indirectly compared studies which utilised only one method using meta-regression to determine the association between methods and estimated diarrhoea rates. RESULTS: In total, 288 studies met our inclusion criteria: 4 direct comparisons and 284 studies utilising only one measurement method. Meta-regression across all studies showed that diarrhoea rates were sensitive to method of measurement. We estimated that passive surveillance methods were associated with a 97% lower estimated rate than active surveillance (IRR = 0.03, 95% CI [0.02, 0.06]). Among active surveillance studies, a doubling of recall period was associated with a 48% lower rate (IRR = 0.52 [0.46, 0.60]), while decreased questioning frequency was associated with a higher estimated rate: at the extreme, one time questioning yielded an over 4× higher rate than daily questioning (IRR = 4.22 [2.73, 6.52]). CONCLUSIONS: Estimated diarrhoea rates are sensitive to their measurement methods. There is a need for a standardisation of diarrhoea measurement methods, and for the use of other outcomes in the measurement of population-level gastrointestinal health.

Bayesian analysis of a systematic review of early versus late tracheostomy in ICU patients.

BACKGROUND: A recent systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs of early vs late tracheostomy in mechanically ventilated patients suggest that early tracheostomy reduces the duration of ICU stay and mechanical ventilation, but does not reduce short-term mortality or ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Meta-analysis of randomised trials is typically performed using a frequentist approach, and although reporting confidence intervals, interpretation is usually based on statistical significance. To provide a robust basis for clinical decision-making, we completed the search used from the previous review and analysed the data using Bayesian methods to estimate posterior probabilities of the effect of early tracheostomy on clinical outcomes. METHODS: The search was completed for RCTS comparing early vs late tracheostomy in the databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library in June 2022. Effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the outcomes short-term mortality, VAP, duration of ICU stay, and mechanical ventilation. A Bayesian meta-analysis was performed with uninformative priors. Risk ratios (RRs) and standardised mean differences (SMDs) with 95% credible intervals were reported alongside posterior probabilities for any benefit (RR<1; SMD<0), a small benefit (number needed to treat, 200; SMD<-0.5), or modest benefit (number needed to treat, 100; SMD<-1). RESULTS: Nineteen RCTs with 3508 patients were included. Comparing patients with early vs late tracheostomy, the posterior probabilities for any benefit, small benefit, and modest benefit, respectively, were: 99%, 99%, and 99% for short-term mortality; 94%, 78%, and 51% for VAP; 97%, 43%, and 1% for duration of mechanical ventilation; and 97%, 75%, and 27% and for length of ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian meta-analysis suggests a high probability that early tracheostomy compared with delayed tracheostomy has at least some benefit across all clinical outcomes considered.

Outcomes Following an Index Emergency Admission With Cholecystitis: A National Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences between patients who undergo cholecystectomy following index admission for cholecystitis, and those who are managed nonoperatively. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Index emergency cholecystectomy following acute cholecystitis is widely recommended by national guidelines, but its effect on clinical outcomes remains uncertain. METHODS: Data collected routinely from the Hospital Episode Statistics database (all admissions to National Health Service organizations in England and Wales) were extracted between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2015. Analyses were limited to patients aged over 18 years with a primary diagnosis of cholecystitis. Exclusions included records with missing or invalid datasets, patients who had previously undergone a cholecystectomy, patients who had died without a cholecystectomy, and those undergoing cholecystectomy for malignancy, pancreatitis, or choledocholithiasis. Patients were grouped as either "no cholecystectomy" where they had never undergone a cholecystectomy following discharge, or "cholecystectomy." The latter group was then subdivided as "emergency cholecystectomy" when cholecystectomy was performed during their index emergency admission, or "interval cholecystectomy" when a cholecystectomy was performed within 12 months following a subsequent (emergency or elective) admission. Propensity Score Matching was used to match emergency and interval cholecystectomy groups. Main outcome measures included 1) One-year total length of hospital stay due to biliary causes following an index emergency admission with cholecystitis. 2) One-year mortality; defined as death occurring within 1 year following the index emergency admission with acute cholecystitis. RESULTS: Of the 99,139 patients admitted as an emergency with acute cholecystitis, 51.1% (47,626) did not undergo a cholecystectomy within 1 year of index admission. These patients were older, with more comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Score ≥ 5 in 23.5% vs. 8.1%, P < 0.001) when compared to patients who did have a cholecystectomy. While all-cause 1-year mortality was higher in the nonoperated versus the operated group (12.2% vs. 2.0%, P < 0.001), gallbladder-related deaths were significantly lower than all other causes of death in the non-operated group (3.3% vs. 8.9%, P < 0.001). Following matching, 1-year total hospital admission time was significantly higher following emergency compared with interval cholecystectomy (17.7 d vs. 13 d, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Over 50% of patients in England did not undergo cholecystectomy following index admission for acute cholecystitis. Mortality was higher in the nonoperated group, which was mostly due to non-gallbladder pathologies but total hospital admission time for biliary causes was lower over 12 months. Increasing the numbers of emergency cholecystectomy may risk over-treating patients with acute cholecystitis and increasing their time spent admitted to hospital.

Evaluation of a self-help intervention to promote the health and wellbeing of marginalised people including those living with leprosy in Nepal: a prospective, observational, cluster-based, cohort study with controls.

BACKGROUND: People affected by leprosy are at increased risk of ulcers from peripheral nerve damage. This in turn can lead to visible impairments, stigmatisation and economic marginalisation. Health care providers suggest that patients should be empowered to self-manage their condition to improve outcomes and reduce reliance on services. Self-care involves carrying out personal care tasks with the aim of preventing disabilities or preventing further deterioration. Self-help, on the other hand, addresses the wider psychological, social and economic implications of leprosy and incorporates, for example, skills training and microfinance schemes. The aim of this study, known as SHERPA (Self-Help Evaluation for lepRosy and other conditions in NePAl) is to evaluate a service intervention called Integrated Mobilization of People for Active Community Transformation (IMPACT) designed to encourage both self-care and self-help in marginalised people including those affected by leprosy. METHODS: A mixed-method evaluation study in Province 5, Nepal comprising two parts. First, a prospective, cluster-based, non-randomised controlled study to evaluate the effectiveness of self-help groups on ulcer metrics (people affected by leprosy only) and on four generic outcome measures (all participants) - generic health status, wellbeing, social integration and household economic performance. Second, a qualitative study to examine the implementation and fidelity of the intervention. IMPACT: This research will provide information on the effectiveness of combined self-help and self-care groups, on quality of life, social integration and economic wellbeing for people living with leprosy, disability or who are socially and economically marginalised in low- and middle- income countries.

An opportunistic evaluation of a routine service improvement project to reduce falls in hospital.

BACKGROUND: Preventing falls in hospital is a perennial patient safety issue. The University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire initiated a programme to train ward staff in accordance with guidelines. The National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care West Midlands was asked to expedite an independent evaluation of the initiative. We set out to describe the intervention to implement the guidelines and to evaluate it by means of a step-wedge cluster study using routinely collected data. METHODS: The evaluation was set up as a partially randomised, step-wedge cluster study, but roll-out across wards was more rapid than planned. The study was therefore analysed as a time-series. Primary outcome was rate of falls per 1000 Occupied Bed Days (OBDs) collected monthly using routine data. Data was analysed using a mixed-effects Poisson regression model, with a fixed effect for intervention, time and post-intervention time. We allowed for random variations across clusters in initial fall rate, pre-intervention slope and post-intervention slope. RESULTS: There was an average of 6.62 falls per 1000 OBDs in the control phase, decreasing to an average of 5.89 falls per 1000 OBDs in the period after implementation to the study end. Regression models showed no significant step change in fall rates (IRR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.92-1.14). However, there was a gradual decrease, of approximately 3%, after the intervention was introduced (IRR: 0.97 per month, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99). CONCLUSION: The intervention was associated with a small but statistically significantly improvement in falls rates. Expedited roll-out of an intervention may vitiate a step-wedge cluster design, but the intervention can still be studied using a time-series analysis. Assuming that there is some value in time series analyses, this is better than no evaluation at all. However, care is needed in making causal inferences given the non-experimental nature of the design.

Development of a video-observation method for examining doctors' clinical and interpersonal skills in a hospital outpatient clinic in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Improving the quality of primary healthcare provision is a key goal in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, to develop effective quality improvement interventions, we first need to be able to accurately measure the quality of care. The methods most commonly used to measure the technical quality of care all have some key limitations in LMICs settings. Video-observation is appealing but has not yet been used in this context. We examine preliminary feasibility and acceptability of video-observation for assessing physician quality in a hospital outpatients' department in Nigeria. We also develop measurement procedures and examine measurement characteristics. METHODS: Cross-sectional study at a large tertiary care hospital in Ibadan, Nigeria. Consecutive physician-patient consultations with adults and children under five seeking outpatient care were video-recorded. We also conducted brief interviews with participating physicians to gain feedback on our approach. Video-recordings were double-coded by two medically trained researchers, independent of the study team and each other, using an explicit checklist of key processes of care that we developed, from which we derived a process quality score. We also elicited a global quality rating from reviewers. RESULTS: We analysed 142 physician-patient consultations. The median process score given by both coders was 100 %. The modal overall rating category was 'above standard' (or 4 on a scale of 1-5). Coders agreed on which rating to assign only 44 % of the time (weighted Cohen's kappa = 0.26). We found in three-level hierarchical modelling that the majority of variance in process scores was explained by coder disagreement. A very high correlation of 0.90 was found between the global quality rating and process quality score across all encounters. Participating physicians liked our approach, despite initial reservations about being observed. CONCLUSIONS: Video-observation is feasible and acceptable in this setting, and the quality of consultations was high. However, we found that rater agreement is low but comparable to other modalities that involve expert clinician judgements about quality of care including in-person direct observation and case note review. We suggest ways to improve scoring consistency including careful rater selection and improved design of the measurement procedure for the process score.

Remote Consultations Versus Standard Face-to-Face Appointments for Liver Transplant Patients in Routine Hospital Care: Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial of myVideoClinic.

BACKGROUND: Using technology to reduce the pressure on the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales is a key government target, and the NHS Long-Term Plan outlines a strategy for digitally enabled outpatient care to become mainstream by 2024. In 2020, the COVID-19 response saw the widespread introduction of remote consultations for patient follow-up, regardless of individual preferences. Despite this rapid change, there may be enduring barriers to the effective implementation of remote appointments into routine practice once the unique drivers for change during the COVID-19 pandemic no longer apply, to which pre-COVID implementation studies can offer important insights. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of using real-time remote consultations between patients and secondary care physicians for routine patient follow-up at a large hospital in the United Kingdom and to assess whether patient satisfaction differs between intervention and usual care patients. METHODS: Clinically stable liver transplant patients were randomized to real-time remote consultations in which their hospital physician used secure videoconferencing software (intervention) or standard face-to-face appointments (usual care). Participants were asked to complete postappointment questionnaires over 12 months. Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis. The primary outcome was the difference in scores between baseline and study end by patient group for the three domains of patient satisfaction (assessed using the Visit-Specific Satisfaction Instrument). An embedded qualitative process evaluation used interviews to assess patient and staff experiences. RESULTS: Of the 54 patients who were randomized, 29 (54%) received remote consultations, and 25 (46%) received usual care (recruitment rate: 54/203, 26.6%). The crossover between study arms was high (13/29, 45%). A total of 129 appointments were completed, with 63.6% (82/129) of the questionnaires being returned. Patient satisfaction at 12 months increased in both the intervention (25 points) and usual care (14 points) groups. The within-group analysis showed that the increases were significant for both intervention (P<.001) and usual care (P=.02) patients; however, the between-group difference was not significant after controlling for baseline scores (P=.10). The qualitative process evaluation showed that-according to patients-remote consultations saved time and money, were less burdensome, and caused fewer negative impacts on health. Technical problems with the software were common, and only 17% (5/29) of patients received all appointments over video. Both consultants and patients saw remote consultations as positive and beneficial. CONCLUSIONS: Using technology to conduct routine follow-up appointments remotely may ease some of the resource and infrastructure challenges faced by the UK NHS and free up clinic space for patients who must be seen face-to-face. Our findings regarding the advantages and challenges of using remote consultations for routine follow-ups of liver transplant patients have important implications for service organization and delivery in the postpandemic NHS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry 14093266; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14093266. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1186/s13063-018-2953-4.

Effect of a baby-friendly workplace support intervention on exclusive breastfeeding in Kenya.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) during the first 6 months of life is crucial for optimizing child growth, development and survival, as well as the mother's wellbeing. Mother's employment may hinder optimal breastfeeding, especially in the first 6 months. We assessed the effectiveness of a baby-friendly workplace support intervention on EBF in Kenya. This pre-post intervention study was conducted between 2016 and 2018 on an agricultural farm in Kericho County. The intervention targeted pregnant/breastfeeding women residing on the farm and consisted of workplace support policies and programme interventions including providing breastfeeding flexi-time and breaks for breastfeeding mothers; day-care centres (crèches) for babies near the workplace and lactation centres with facilities for breast milk expression and storage at the crèches; creating awareness on available workplace support for breastfeeding policies; and home-based nutritional counselling for pregnant and breastfeeding women. EBF was measured through 24-h recall. The effect of the intervention on EBF was estimated using propensity score weighting. The study included 270 and 146 mother-child dyads in the nontreated (preintervention) group and treated (intervention) group, respectively. The prevalence of EBF was higher in the treated group (80.8%) than in the nontreated group (20.2%); corresponding to a fourfold increased probability of EBF [risk ratio (RR) 3.90; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.95-5.15]. The effect of the intervention was stronger among children aged 3-5 months (RR 8.13; 95% CI 4.23-15.64) than among those aged <3 months (RR 2.79; 95% CI 2.09-3.73). The baby-friendly workplace support intervention promoted EBF especially beyond 3 months in this setting.

Effectiveness of SMS messaging for diarrhoea measurement: a factorial cross-over randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Text messaging systems are used to collect data on symptom prevalence. Using a text messaging system, we evaluated the effects of question load, question frequency, and financial incentive on response rates and reported infant diarrhoea rates in an infant diarrhoea survey. METHODS: We performed a factorial cross-over randomised controlled trial of an SMS surveying system for infant diarrhoea surveillance with treatments: financial incentive (yes/no), question load (1-question/3-question), and questioning frequency (daily/fortnightly). Participants progressed through all treatment combinations over eight two-week rounds. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regressions to determine the impacts of the treatments on the response rates and reported diarrhoea rates. Attitudes were explored through qualitative interviews. RESULTS: For the 141 participants, the mean response rate was 47%. In terms of percentage point differences (ppd), daily questioning was associated with a lower response rate than fortnightly (- 1·2[95%CI:-4·9,2·5]); high (3-question) question loads were associated with a lower response rate than low (1-question) question loads (- 7·0[95%CI:- 10·8,-3·1]); and financial incentivisation was associated with a higher response rate than no financial incentivisation (6·4[95%CI:2·6,10·2]). The mean two-week diarrhoea rate was 36·4%. Daily questioning was associated with a higher reported diarrhoea rate than fortnightly (29·9[95%CI:22·8,36·9]); with little evidence for impact by incentivisation or question load. CONCLUSIONS: Close to half of all participants responded to the SMS survey. Daily questioning evoked a statistically higher rate of reported diarrhoea, while financial incentivisation and low (1-question) question loads evoked higher response rates than no incentive and high (3-question) question loads respectively. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol was prospectively registered on ISRCTN on the 20th of March 2019 under number ISRCTN11410773 .

Publication and related biases in health services research: a systematic review of empirical evidence.

BACKGROUND: Publication and related biases (including publication bias, time-lag bias, outcome reporting bias and p-hacking) have been well documented in clinical research, but relatively little is known about their presence and extent in health services research (HSR). This paper aims to systematically review evidence concerning publication and related bias in quantitative HSR. METHODS: Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, CINAHL, Web of Science, Health Systems Evidence, Cochrane EPOC Review Group and several websites were searched to July 2018. Information was obtained from: (1) Methodological studies that set out to investigate publication and related biases in HSR; (2) Systematic reviews of HSR topics which examined such biases as part of the review process. Relevant information was extracted from included studies by one reviewer and checked by another. Studies were appraised according to commonly accepted scientific principles due to lack of suitable checklists. Data were synthesised narratively. RESULTS: After screening 6155 citations, four methodological studies investigating publication bias in HSR and 184 systematic reviews of HSR topics (including three comparing published with unpublished evidence) were examined. Evidence suggestive of publication bias was reported in some of the methodological studies, but evidence presented was very weak, limited in both quality and scope. Reliable data on outcome reporting bias and p-hacking were scant. HSR systematic reviews in which published literature was compared with unpublished evidence found significant differences in the estimated intervention effects or association in some but not all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological research on publication and related biases in HSR is sparse. Evidence from available literature suggests that such biases may exist in HSR but their scale and impact are difficult to estimate for various reasons discussed in this paper. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2016 CRD42016052333.

Randomised evaluation of government health programmes does present a challenge to standard research ethics frameworks.

In a recent issue of Journal of Medical Ethics (JME), we discussed the ethical review of evaluations of interventions that would occur whether or not the evaluation was taking place. We concluded that standard research ethics frameworks including the Ottawa Statement, which requires justification for all aspects of an intervention and its roll-out, were a poor guide in this area. We proposed that a consideration of researcher responsibility, based on the consequences of the research taking place, would be a more appropriate way delineate the scope of research ethics review. Weijer and Taljaard present a counterargument to our proposal, which we address in this reply. They claim that a focus on researcher responsibility will weaken the protection of research participants and link it to 'unethical research' and a 'government experimenting on its own people'. However, the moral responsibility of researchers is defined in terms of the consequences of the research on human welfare and harm, not in opposition to it. Weijer and Taljaard argue that researchers must justify what they are studying whether or not they have any control over it and that governments must justify their programmes, including by demonstrating equipoise, to a research ethics committee if they implement them in a randomised way. We strongly disagree that this is a defensible way to define the scope of research ethics review and argue that this provides no further protections to research participants beyond what we propose, but places a potential barrier to learning from government programmes.

Revising ethical guidance for the evaluation of programmes and interventions not initiated by researchers.

Public health and service delivery programmes, interventions and policies (collectively, 'programmes') are typically developed and implemented for the primary purpose of effecting change rather than generating knowledge. Nonetheless, evaluations of these programmes may produce valuable learning that helps determine effectiveness and costs as well as informing design and implementation of future programmes. Such studies might be termed 'opportunistic evaluations', since they are responsive to emergent opportunities rather than being studies of interventions that are initiated or designed by researchers. However, current ethical guidance and registration procedures make little allowance for scenarios where researchers have played no role in the development or implementation of a programme, but nevertheless plan to conduct a prospective evaluation. We explore the limitations of the guidance and procedures with respect to opportunistic evaluations, providing a number of examples. We propose that one key missing distinction in current guidance is moral responsibility: researchers can only be held accountable for those aspects of a study over which they have control. We argue that requiring researchers to justify an intervention, programme or policy that would occur regardless of their involvement prevents or hinders research in the public interest without providing any further protections to research participants. We recommend that trial consent and ethics procedures allow for a clear separation of responsibilities for the intervention and the evaluation.

Assessing the long-term effectiveness of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis: final 10-year results from the UK multiple sclerosis risk-sharing scheme.

BACKGROUND: Because multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease causing disability over decades, it is crucial to know if the short-term effects of disease-modifying therapies reported in randomised controlled trials reduce long-term disability. This 10-year prospective observational study of disability outcomes (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and utility) was set up, in conjunction with a risk-sharing agreement between payers and producers, to investigate this issue. METHODS: The outcomes of the UK treated patients were compared with a modelled untreated control based on the British Columbia MS data set to assess the long-term effectiveness of these treatments. Two complementary analysis models were used: a multilevel model (MLM) and a continuous Markov model. RESULTS: 4862 patients with MS were eligible for the primary analysis (mean and median follow-up times 8.7 and 10 years). EDSS worsening was reduced by 28% (MLM), 7% (Markov) and 24% time-adjusted Markov in the total cohort, and by 31% (MLM) and 14% (Markov) for relapsing remitting patients. The utility worsening was reduced by 23%-24% in the total cohort and by 24%-31% in the RR patients depending on the model used. All sensitivity analyses showed a treatment effect. There was a 4-year (CI 2.7 to 5.3) delay to EDSS 6.0. An apparent waning of treatment effect with time was seen. Subgroup analyses suggested better treatment effects in those treated earlier and with lower EDSS scores. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a beneficial effect on long-term disability with first-line MS disease-modifying treatments, which is clinically meaningful. However the waning effect noted requires further study.

Ranking Hospitals Based on Preventable Hospital Death Rates: A Systematic Review With Implications for Both Direct Measurement and Indirect Measurement Through Standardized Mortality Rates.

Policy Points The use of standardized mortality rates (SMRs) to profile hospitals presumes differences in preventable deaths, and at least one health system has suggested measuring preventable death rates of hospitals for comparison across time or in league tables. The influence of reliability on the optimal review number per case note or hospital for such a program has not been explored. Estimates for preventable death rates using implicit case note reviews by clinicians are quite low, suggesting that SMRs will not work well to rank hospitals, and any misspecification of the risk-adjustment models will produce a high risk of mislabelling outliers. Most studies achieve only fair to moderate reliability of the direct assessment of whether a death is preventable, and thus it is likely that substantial numbers of reviews of deaths would be required to distinguish preventable from nonpreventable deaths as part of learning from individual cases, or for profiling hospitals. Furthermore, population- and hospital system-specific data on the variation in preventable deaths or adverse events across the hospitals and providers to be compared are required in order to design a measurement procedure and the number of reviews needed to distinguish between the patients or hospitals. CONTEXT: There is interest in monitoring avoidable or preventable deaths measured directly or indirectly through standardized mortality rates (SMRs). While there have been numerous studies in recent years on adverse events, including preventable deaths, using implicit case note reviews by clinicians, no systematic reviews have aimed to summarize the estimates or the variations in methodologies used to derive these estimates. We reviewed studies that use implicit case note reviews to estimate the range of preventable death rates observed, the measurement characteristics of those estimates, and the measurement procedures used to generate them. We comment on the implications for monitoring SMRs and illustrate a way to calculate the number of reviews needed to establish a reliable estimate of the preventability of one death or the hospital preventable death rate. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature supplemented by a reanalysis of authors' previously published and unpublished data and measurement design calculations. We conducted initial searches in PubMed, MEDLINE (OvidSP), and ISI Web of Knowledge in June 2010 and updated them in June 2012 and December 2017. Eligibility criteria included studies of hospital-wide admissions from general and acute medical wards where preventable death rates are provided or can be estimated and that can provide interobserver variations. FINDINGS: Twenty-three studies were included from 1985 to 2017. Recent larger studies suggest consistently low rates of preventable deaths (interquartile range of 3.0%-6.0% since 2008). Reliability of a single review for distinguishing between individual cases with regard to the preventability of death had a Kappa statistic of 0.10-0.50 for deaths and 0.21-0.76 for adverse events. A Kappa of 0.35 would require an average of 8 to 17 reviews of a single case to be precise enough to have confidence in high-stakes decisions to change care procedures or impose sanctions within a hospital as a result. No study estimated the variation in preventable deaths across hospitals, although we were able to reanalyze one study to obtain an estimate. Based on this estimate, 200 to 300 total case note reviews per hospital could be required to reliably distinguish between hospitals. The studies displayed considerable heterogeneity: 13/23 studies defined preventable death with a threshold of greater than or equal to four in a six-category Likert scale and 11/24 involved a two-stage screening process with nurses at the first stage and physicians at the second. Fifteen studies provided expert clinical review support for reviewer disagreements, advice, and quality control. A "generalist/internist" was the modal physician specialty for reviewers and they received one to three days of generic tools orientation and case note review practice. Methods did not consider the influence of human or environmental factors. CONCLUSIONS: The literature provides limited information about the measurement characteristics of preventable deaths, suggesting that substantial numbers of reviews may be needed to create reliable estimates of preventable deaths at the individual or hospital level. Any operational program would require population-specific estimates of reliability. Preventable death rates are low, which is likely to make it difficult to use SMRs based on all deaths to validly profile hospitals. The literature provides little information to guide improvements in the measurement procedures.

Case study of a method of development of a selection process for community health workers in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Choosing who should be recruited as a community health worker (CHW) is an important task, for their future performance partly depends on their ability to learn the required knowledge and skills, and their personal attributes. Developing a fair and effective selection process for CHWs is a challenging task, and reports of attempts to do so are rare. This paper describes a five-stage process of development and initial testing of a CHW selection process in two CHW programmes, one in Malawi and one in Ghana, highlighting the lessons learned at each stage and offering recommendations to other CHW programme providers seeking to develop their own selection processes. CASE PRESENTATION: The five stages of selection process development were as follows: (1) review an existing selection process, (2) conduct a job analysis, (3) elicit stakeholder opinions, (4) co-design the selection process and (5) test the selection process. Good practice in selection process development from the human resource literature and the principles of co-design were considered throughout. Validity, reliability, fairness, acceptability and feasibility-the determinants of selection process utility-were considered as appropriate during stages 1 to 4 and used to guide the testing in stage 5. The selection methods used by each local team were a written test and a short interview. CONCLUSIONS: Working with stakeholders, including CHWs, helped to ensure the acceptability of the selection processes developed. Expectations of intensiveness-in particular the number of interviewers-needed to be managed as resources for selection are limited, and CHWs reported that any form of interview may be stressful. Testing highlighted the importance of piloting with CHWs to ensure clarity of wording of questions, interviewer training to maximise inter-rater reliability and the provision of guidance to applicants in advance of any selection events. Trade-offs between the different components of selection process utility are also likely to be required. Further refinements and evaluation of predictive validity (i.e. a sixth stage of development) would be recommended before roll-out.

Using recruitment and selection to build a primary care workforce for the future.

Recruitment and selection are critical components of human resource management. They influence both the quantity and quality of the healthcare workforce. In this article, we use two different examples of primary care workers, General Practitioners in the UK and Community Health Workers in low- and middle- income countries, to illustrate how recruitment and selection are, and could be, used to enhance the primary care workforce in each setting. Both recruitment and selection can be costly, so when funding is limited, decisions on how to spend the human resources budget must be made. It could be argued that human resource management should focus on recruitment in a seller's market (an insufficient supply of applicants) and on selection in a buyer's market (sufficient applicants but concerns about their quality). We use this article to examine recruitment and selection in each type of market and highlight the interactions between these two human resource management decisions. Recruitment and selection, we argue, must be considered in both types of market; particularly in sectors where workers' labour impacts upon population health. We note the paucity of high-quality research in recruitment and selection for primary care and the need for rigorous study designs such as randomised trials.

Improving the health and welfare of people who live in slums.

In the first paper in this Series we assessed theoretical and empirical evidence and concluded that the health of people living in slums is a function not only of poverty but of intimately shared physical and social environments. In this paper we extend the theory of so-called neighbourhood effects. Slums offer high returns on investment because beneficial effects are shared across many people in densely populated neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood effects also help explain how and why the benefits of interventions vary between slum and non-slum spaces and between slums. We build on this spatial concept of slums to argue that, in all low-income and-middle-income countries, census tracts should henceforth be designated slum or non-slum both to inform local policy and as the basis for research surveys that build on censuses. We argue that slum health should be promoted as a topic of enquiry alongside poverty and health.

The history, geography, and sociology of slums and the health problems of people who live in slums.

Massive slums have become major features of cities in many low-income and middle-income countries. Here, in the first in a Series of two papers, we discuss why slums are unhealthy places with especially high risks of infection and injury. We show that children are especially vulnerable, and that the combination of malnutrition and recurrent diarrhoea leads to stunted growth and longer-term effects on cognitive development. We find that the scientific literature on slum health is underdeveloped in comparison to urban health, and poverty and health. This shortcoming is important because health is affected by factors arising from the shared physical and social environment, which have effects beyond those of poverty alone. In the second paper we will consider what can be done to improve health and make recommendations for the development of slum health as a field of study.