Cumulative Impacts of Oil Pollution, Ocean Warming, and Coastal Freshening on the Feeding of Arctic Copepods.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes, and biota are exposed to multiple stressors, including pollution and climate change. Still, little is known about their joint impact. Here, we investigated the cumulative impact of crude oil, warming, and freshening on the copepod species Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus. Adult females were exposed to ambient conditions (control; 0 °C + 33 psu) and combined warming and freshening: 5 °C + 27 psu (Scenario 1), 5 °C + 20 psu (Scenario 2) for 6 days. All three conditions were tested with and without dispersed crude oil. In Scenario 1, fecal pellet production (FPP) significantly increased by 40-78% and 42-122% for C. glacialis and C. finmarchicus, respectively. In Scenario 2, FPP decreased by 6-57% for C. glacialis, while it fluctuated for C. finmarchicus. For both species, oil had the strongest effect on FPP, leading to a 68-83% reduction. This overshadowed the differences between climatic scenarios. All variables (temperature, salinity, and oil) had significant single effects and several joint effects on FPP. Our results demonstrate that Arctic copepods are sensitive to environmentally realistic concentrations of crude oil and climate change. Strong reductions in feeding can reduce the copepods' energy content with potential large-scale impacts on the Arctic marine food web.

A trait-based approach to assess niche overlap and functional distinctiveness between non-indigenous and native species.

Our understanding of the community assembly processes acting on non-indigenous species (NIS), as well as the relationship with native species is limited, especially in marine ecosystems. To overcome this knowledge gap we here develop a trait-based approach based on the functional distinctiveness metric to assess niche overlap between NIS and native species, using high-resolution data on benthic invertebrate communities in the Baltic Sea. Our results show that NIS retain a certain degree of similarity with native species, but display one or a few singular unique traits (e.g., bioturbation ability). Furthermore, we demonstrate that community assembly processes, including both environmental filtering and limiting similarity affect NIS establishment, but that their effects may be highly context dependent, as illustrated by pronounced spatial patterns in distinctiveness. Finally, our trait-based approach provides a generic framework applicable to other areas and organisms, to better understand and address biological invasions.

Are we ready to track climate-driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? - A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data.

Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. We identified that 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. Given that the primary purpose of surveys is to provide independent data to inform stock assessment of commercially important populations, we further highlight that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species. An average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with spatio-temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate-driven ocean changes.

Trait-based food web model reveals the underlying mechanisms of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships.

The concept of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) has been studied over the last three decades using experiments, theoretical models and more recently observational data. While theoretical models revealed that species richness is the best metric summarizing ecosystem functioning, it is clear that ecosystem function is explained by other variables besides species richness. Additionally, theoretical models rarely focus on more than one ecosystem function, limiting ecosystem functioning to biomass or production. There is a lack of theoretical background to verify how other components of biodiversity and species interactions support ecosystem functioning. Here, using simulations from a food web model based on a community assembly process and a trait-based approach, we test how species biodiversity, food web structure and predator-prey interactions determine several ecosystem functions (biomass, metabolism, production and productivity). Our results demonstrate that the relationship between species richness and ecosystem functioning depends on the type of ecosystem function considered and the importance of diversity and food web structure differs across functions. Particularly, we show that dominance plays a major role in determining the level of biomass, and it is at least as important as the number of species. We find that dominance occurs in the food web when species do not experience strong predation. By manipulating the structure of the food web, we show that species using a wider trait space (generalist communities) result in more connected food webs and generally reach the same level of functioning with less species. The model shows the importance of generalist versus specialist communities on BEF relationships, and as such, empirical studies should focus on quantifying the importance of diet/habitat use on ecosystem functioning. Our study provides a better understanding of BEF underlying mechanisms and generates research hypotheses that can be considered and tested in observational studies. We recommend that studies investigating links between biodiversity and ecosystem functions should include metrics of dominance, species composition, trophic structure and possibly environmental trait space. We also advise that more effort should be made into calculating several ecosystem functions and properties with data from natural multitrophic systems.

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in fish communities: biomass is related to evenness and the environment, not to species richness.

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is a topic of considerable interest to scientists and managers because a better understanding of its underlying mechanisms may help us mitigate the consequences of biodiversity loss on ecosystems. Our current knowledge of BEF relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, typically conducted on a narrow range of spatio-temporal scales, environmental conditions, and trophic levels. Hence, whether a relationship holds in the natural environment is poorly understood, especially in exploited marine ecosystems. Using large-scale observations of marine fish communities, we applied a structural equation modelling framework to investigate the existence and significance of BEF relationships across northwestern European seas. We find that ecosystem functioning, here represented by spatial patterns in total fish biomass, is unrelated to species richness-the most commonly used diversity metric in BEF studies. Instead, community evenness, differences in species composition, and abiotic variables are significant drivers. In particular, we find that high fish biomass is associated with fish assemblages dominated by a few generalist species of a high trophic level, who are able to exploit both the benthic and pelagic energy pathway. Our study provides a better understanding of the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem functioning and allows for the integration of biodiversity into management considerations.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Fish communities diverge in species but converge in traits over three decades of warming.

Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait-based approaches can provide better insight than species-based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functioning, but comparing species and trait dynamics may reveal important patterns for understanding community responses to environmental change. Here, we used a 33-year database of fish monitoring to compare the spatio-temporal dynamics of taxonomic and trait structure in North Sea fish communities. We found that the majority of variation in both taxonomic and trait structure was explained by a pronounced spatial gradient, with distinct communities in the southern and northern North Sea related to depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and bed shear stress. Both taxonomic and trait structure changed significantly over time; however taxonomically, communities in the south and north diverged towards different species, becoming more dissimilar over time, yet they converged towards the same traits regardless of species differences. In particular, communities shifted towards smaller, faster growing species with higher thermal preferences and pelagic water column position. Although taxonomic structure changed over time, its spatial distribution remained relatively stable, whereas in trait structure, the southern zone of the North Sea shifted northward and expanded, leading to homogenization. Our findings suggest that global environmental change, notably climate warming, will lead to convergence towards traits more adapted for novel environments regardless of species composition.

Four decades of functional community change reveals gradual trends and low interlinkage across trophic groups in a large marine ecosystem.

The rate at which biological diversity is altered on both land and in the sea, makes temporal community development a critical and fundamental part of understanding global change. With advancements in trait-based approaches, the focus on the impact of temporal change has shifted towards its potential effects on the functioning of the ecosystems. Our mechanistic understanding of and ability to predict community change is still impeded by the lack of knowledge in long-term functional dynamics that span several trophic levels. To address this, we assessed species richness and multiple dimensions of functional diversity and dynamics of two interacting key organism groups in the marine food web: fish and zoobenthos. We utilized unique time series-data spanning four decades, from three environmentally distinct coastal areas in the Baltic Sea, and assembled trait information on six traits per organism group covering aspects of feeding, living habit, reproduction and life history. We identified gradual long-term trends, rather than abrupt changes in functional diversity (trait richness, evenness, dispersion) trait turnover, and overall multi-trait community composition. The linkage between fish and zoobenthic functional community change, in terms of correlation in long-term trends, was weak, with timing of changes being area and trophic group specific. Developments of fish and zoobenthos traits, particularly size (increase in small size for both groups) and feeding habits (e.g. increase in generalist feeding for fish and scavenging or predation for zoobenthos), suggest changes in trophic pathways. We summarize our findings by highlighting three key aspects for understanding functional change across trophic groups: (a) decoupling of species from trait richness, (b) decoupling of richness from density and (c) determining of turnover and multi-trait dynamics. We therefore argue for quantifying change in multiple functional measures to help assessments of biodiversity change move beyond taxonomy and single trophic groups.

Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño.

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom-up, top-down, or direct physical processes represents a long-standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom-up and top-down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio-temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom-up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top-down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long-term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom-up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom-up and top-down forcing, analogous to wasp-waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom-up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.

The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world.

Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.

Resilience and stability of a pelagic marine ecosystem.

The accelerating loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide has accentuated a long-standing debate on the role of diversity in stabilizing ecological communities and has given rise to a field of research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Although broad consensus has been reached regarding the positive BEF relationship, a number of important challenges remain unanswered. These primarily concern the underlying mechanisms by which diversity increases resilience and community stability, particularly the relative importance of statistical averaging and functional complementarity. Our understanding of these mechanisms relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, yet the degree to which theory adequately explains the dynamics and stability of natural ecosystems is largely unknown, especially in marine ecosystems. Using modelling and a unique 60-year dataset covering multiple trophic levels, we show that the pronounced multi-decadal variability of the Southern California Current System (SCCS) does not represent fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning, but a linear response to key environmental drivers channelled through bottom-up and physical control. Furthermore, we show strong temporal asynchrony between key species or functional groups within multiple trophic levels caused by opposite responses to these drivers. We argue that functional complementarity is the primary mechanism reducing community variability and promoting resilience and stability in the SCCS.

Climate, fishing, and fluctuations of sardine and anchovy in the California Current.

Since the days of Elton, population cycles have challenged ecologists and resource managers. Although the underlying mechanisms remain debated, theory holds that both density-dependent and density-independent processes shape the dynamics. One striking example is the large-scale fluctuations of sardine and anchovy observed across the major upwelling areas of the world. Despite a long history of research, the causes of these fluctuations remain unresolved and heavily debated, with significant implications for fisheries management. We here model the underlying causes of these fluctuations, using the California Current Ecosystem as a case study, and show that the dynamics, accurately reproduced since A.D. 1661 onward, are explained by interacting density-dependent processes (i.e., through species-specific life-history traits) and climate forcing. Furthermore, we demonstrate how fishing modifies the dynamics and show that the sardine collapse of the 1950s was largely unavoidable given poor recruitment conditions. Our approach provides unique insight into the origin of sardine-anchovy fluctuations and a knowledge base for sustainable fisheries management in the California Current Ecosystem and beyond.

Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures.

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks.

Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a "true sink" habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances.

A metacommunity perspective on source­sink dynamics and management: the Baltic Sea as a case study.

The degree to which metapopulation processes influence fish stock dynamics is a largely unresolved issue in marine science and management, especially for highly mobile species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and herring (Clupea harengus). The Baltic Sea comprises a heterogeneous oceanographic environment that structures the spatial and temporal distribution of the dominant species cod, herring, and sprat (Sprattus sprattus). Despite local differences, the stocks are traditionally managed as homogeneous units. Here, we present a metacommunity-perspective on source­sink dynamics of Baltic Sea fish stocks by using a spatially disaggregated statistical food web model. The model is fitted to area-specific time series of multiple abiotic and biotic variables using state-space methods. Our analysis reveals pronounced net fluxes between areas, indicative of source­sink dynamics, as well as area-specific differences in species interactions (i.e., density dependence, competition, and predator­prey) and the degree of fishing and climate impact on survival and recruitment. Furthermore, model simulations show that decreasing exploitation pressure in the source area for cod (without reallocating fishing effort) produces an increase in neighboring sink habitats, but a decline of prey species in response to increased predation. Our approach provides valuable insight concerning metacommunity-structuring of marine fish and may serve as an important tool for implementing sustainable management strategies under the ecosystem approach to marine and fisheries management.

Do weathered microplastics impact the planktonic community? A mesocosm approach in the Baltic Sea.

Microplastics (MPs) are ubiquitous pollutants of increasing concern in aquatic systems. However, little is still known about the impacts of weathered MPs on plankton at the community level after long-term exposure. In this study, we investigated the effects of weathered MPs on the structure and dynamics of a Baltic Sea planktonic community during ca. 5 weeks of exposure using a mesocosm approach (2 m3) mimicking natural conditions. MPs were obtained from micronized commercial materials of polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene, polystyrene, and polyamide (nylon) previously weathered by thermal ageing and sunlight exposure. The planktonic community was exposed to 2 µg L-1 and 2 mg L-1 of MPs corresponding to measured particle concentrations (10-120 µm) of 680 MPs L-1 and 680 MPs mL-1, respectively. The abundance and composition of all size classes and groups of plankton and chlorophyll concentrations were periodically analyzed throughout the experiment. The population dynamics of the studied groups showed some variations between treatments, with negative and positive effects of MPs exhibited depending on the group and exposure time. The abundance of heterotrophic bacteria, pico- and nanophytoplankton, cryptophytes, and ciliates was lower in the treatment with the higher MP concentration than in the control at the last weeks of the exposure. The chlorophyll concentration and the abundances of heterotrophic nanoflagellates, Astromoeba, dinoflagellate, diatom, and metazooplankton were not negatively affected by the exposure to MPs and, in some cases, some groups showed even higher abundances in the MP treatments. Despite these tendencies, statistical analyses indicate that in most cases there were no statistically significant differences between treatments over the exposure period, even at very high exposure concentrations. Our results show that weathered MPs of the studied conventional plastic materials have minimal or negligible impact on planktonic communities after long-term exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations.

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas.

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish). We show that most communities and sites have clearly responded to ongoing ocean warming via abundance increases of warm-water species (tropicalization, 54%) and decreases of cold-water species (deborealization, 18%). Tropicalization dominated Atlantic sites compared to semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, probably due to physical barrier constraints to connectivity and species colonization. Semi-enclosed basins appeared to be particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, experiencing the fastest rates of warming and biodiversity loss through deborealization.

Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach.

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future.

Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.