Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity.

BACKGROUND: Although the national obesity epidemic has been well documented, less is known about obesity at the U.S. state level. Current estimates are based on body measures reported by persons themselves that underestimate the prevalence of obesity, especially severe obesity. METHODS: We developed methods to correct for self-reporting bias and to estimate state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI). BMI data reported by 6,264,226 adults (18 years of age or older) who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias with the use of measured data from 57,131 adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We fitted multinomial regressions for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], <25), overweight (25 to <30), moderate obesity (30 to <35), and severe obesity (≥35). We evaluated the accuracy of our approach using data from 1990 through 2010 to predict 2016 outcomes. RESULTS: The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups. (Funded by the JPB Foundation.).

Smoking and cessation-related attitudes among men who have sex with men in the country of Georgia.

Among men who have sex with men (MSM) in low- or middle-income countries, smoking and related factors have been understudied. We examined correlates of smoking status, level, and importance and confidence regarding quitting among 608 MSM in the country of Georgia recruited in June-September, 2016 (493 without HIV via peer referral in 3 Georgian cities; 115 with HIV via the National AIDS Center). Median age was 26 years, 78.6% reported current (past 30-day) alcohol use, and 22.4% reported past-year illicit drug use. Overall, 73.8% reported current smoking; of these, 87.1% smoked daily, mean cigarettes per day (cpd) was 19.8, 64.6% smoked ≤30 min of waking, and mean quitting importance and confidence were 6.8 and 6.4 (0 = not at all to 10 = extremely), respectively. Multivariable analyses indicated that current smoking correlated with past-month alcohol and past-year illicit drug use (p's < .001). Among smokers, cpd correlated with being older and smoking within 30 min of waking; greater quitting importance (≥7) correlated with higher education and no illicit substance use; and greater quitting confidence (≥7) was associated with fewer cpd, smoking ≤30 min of waking, and regional versus capital city residence. Given these findings, addressing tobacco and other substance use among MSM in Georgia is critical.

Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of an Elementary School-Based Telehealth Program.

Utilization of telehealth in school-based health centers (SBHCs) is increasing rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effect on school absences and cost-benefit of telehealth-exclusive SBHCs at 6 elementary schools from 2015-2017. The effect of telehealth on absences was estimated compared to students without telehealth using negative binomial regression controlling for absences and health suite visits in 2014 and sociodemographic characteristics. The sample included 7,164 observations from 4,203 students. Telehealth was associated with a 7.7% (p = 0.025; 95% CI: 1.0%, 14%) reduction in absences (0.60 days/year). The program cost $189,000/yr and an estimated total benefit of $384,995 (95% CI: $60,416; $687,479) and an annual net benefit of $195,873 (95% CI: -$128,706; $498,357). While this cost-benefit analysis is limited by a lack of data on total healthcare utilization, the use of telehealth-exclusive SBHCs can improve student health and attendance while delivering cost savings to society.

Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Although the current obesity epidemic has been well documented in children and adults, less is known about long-term risks of adult obesity for a given child at his or her present age and weight. We developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. METHODS: We pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults. We simulated growth trajectories across the life course and adjusted for secular trends. We created 1000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years that were representative of the 2016 population of the United States and projected their trajectories in height and weight up to the age of 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or higher in adults and 120% or more of the 95th percentile in children. RESULTS: Given the current level of childhood obesity, the models predicted that a majority of today's children (57.3%; 95% uncertainly interval [UI], 55.2 to 60.0) will be obese at the age of 35 years, and roughly half of the projected prevalence will occur during childhood. Our simulations indicated that the relative risk of adult obesity increased with age and BMI, from 1.17 (95% UI, 1.09 to 1.29) for overweight 2-year-olds to 3.10 (95% UI, 2.43 to 3.65) for 19-year-olds with severe obesity. For children with severe obesity, the chance they will no longer be obese at the age of 35 years fell from 21.0% (95% UI, 7.3 to 47.3) at the age of 2 years to 6.1% (95% UI, 2.1 to 9.9) at the age of 19 years. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of our simulation models, childhood obesity and overweight will continue to be a major health problem in the United States. Early development of obesity predicted obesity in adulthood, especially for children who were severely obese. (Funded by the JPB Foundation and others.).

Evaluation of a pragmatic trial of a collaborative school-based obesity prevention intervention in a low-income urban district.

Broader adoption of effective school-based obesity prevention interventions is critical to the success of ongoing efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. School-level barriers to adopting evidence-based interventions may be overcome by empowering school-level leaders to select appropriate intervention components. We used a quasi-experimental pragmatic trial design to evaluate a tailored obesity prevention intervention in 9 schools in a mid-sized urban school district in upstate New York from fall 2013 to spring 2016. We analyzed repeated height and weight measurements from an existing district screening system on 5882 students from intervention and control schools matched using propensity score methods. We assessed diet and physical activity changes in intervention schools using surveys and direct observation. The intervention led to a change of -0.27 (p = 0.026, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.51, -0.03) and -0.28 (p = 0.031, 95% CI: -0.54, -0.03) BMI units in spring 2014 and fall 2014, respectively. There were no significant differences between intervention and control from spring 2015 to spring 2016. Despite the lack of sustained effects on BMI, we demonstrated the potential of supporting school leaders in a low-income district to implement supportive policy and practice changes and of using an existing BMI screening system to reduce the burden of health promotion evaluation.

Moving beyond individual barriers and identifying multi-level strategies to reduce anemia in Odisha India.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the prevalence of anemia, the Indian government recommends daily iron and folic acid supplements (iron supplements) for pregnant women and weekly iron supplements for adolescents and all women of reproductive age. The government has distributed free iron supplements to adolescents and pregnant women for over four decades. However, initial uptake and adherence remain inadequate and non-pregnant women of reproductive age are largely ignored. The aim of this study is to examine the multilevel barriers to iron supplement use and to subsequently identify promising areas to intervene. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study in the state of Odisha, India. Data collection included key informant interviews, focus group discussions with women, husbands, and mothers-in-law, and direct observations in health centers, pharmacies and village health and nutrition days. RESULTS: We found that at the individual level, participants knew that iron supplements prevent anemia but underestimated anemia prevalence and risk in their community. Participants also believed that taking too many iron supplements during pregnancy would "make your baby big" causing a painful birth and a costly cesarean section. At the interpersonal level, mothers-in-law were not supportive of their daughters-in-law taking regular iron supplements during pregnancy but husbands were more supportive. At the community level, participants reported that only pregnant women and adolescents are taking iron supplements, ignoring non-pregnant women altogether. Unequal gender norms are also an upstream barrier for non-pregnant women to prioritize their health to obtain iron supplements. At the policy level, frontline health workers distribute iron supplements to pregnant women only and do not follow up on adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions should address multiple barriers to iron supplement use along the socio-ecological model. They should also be tailored to a woman's reproductive life course stage: adolescents, pregnancy, and non-pregnant women of reproductive age because social norms and available services differ between the subpopulations.

Impact of the Community Eligibility Provision on meal counts and participation in Pennsylvania and Maryland National School Lunch Programs.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether school-level participation in the federal Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which provides free school lunch to all students, is associated with school meal participation rates. Participation in school meals is important for decreasing food insecurity and improving child health and well-being. DESIGN: Quasi-experimental evaluation using negative binomial regression to predict meal count rates per student-year overall and by reimbursement level adjusted for proportion eligible for free and reduced-price lunch (FR eligibility) and operating days. SETTING: Schools (grades kindergarten to 12th) participating in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) in Maryland and Pennsylvania, USA, from the 2013-2015 (n 1762) and 2016-2017 (n 2379) school years. PARTICIPANTS: Administrative, school-level data on school lunch counts and student enrolment. RESULTS: CEP was associated with a non-significant 6 % higher total NSLP meal count adjusting for FR eligibility, enrolment and operating days (rate ratio = 1·06, 95 % CI 0·98, 1·14). After controlling for participation rates in the year prior to CEP implementation, the programme was associated with a significant 8 % increase in meal counts (rate ratio = 1·08, 95 % CI 1·03, 1·12). In both analyses, CEP was associated with lower FR meal participation and substantial increases in paid meal participation. CONCLUSIONS: School-level implementation of CEP is associated with increases in total school meal participation. Current funding structures may prevent broader adoption of the programme by schools with fewer students eligible for FR meals.

Systematic Review of School Telehealth Evaluations.

School telehealth is an alternative delivery model to increase student health-care access with minimal evaluation to aid decision makers in the adoption or expansion of programs. This systematic review assesses school-based telehealth programs using a dissemination and implementation (D&I) framework to inform practitioners and decision makers of the value of school telehealth. We assessed findings from 20 studies on telehealth published between January 2006 and June 2018 and summarized program evaluation on a range of D&I constructs. The sample population included children in school- or center-based early childhood education under age 22 and included parents, providers, and school personnel across urban and suburban locations. There is some evidence that school telehealth can reduce emergency department visits and improve health status for children with chronic and acute illnesses. Future research should report on barriers and facilitators of implementation of programs, including costs related to application of telehealth services and utilization rates.

Racial/Ethnic and Socioeconomic Disparities in Hydration Status Among US Adults and the Role of Tap Water and Other Beverage Intake.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether differences in tap water and other beverage intake explain differences in inadequate hydration among US adults by race/ethnicity and income. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of inadequate hydration (urine osmolality ≥ 800 mOsm/kg) by race/ethnicity and income of 8258 participants aged 20 to 74 years in the 2009 to 2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Using multivariable regression models, we estimated associations between demographic variables, tap water intake, and inadequate hydration. RESULTS: The prevalence of inadequate hydration among US adults was 29.5%. Non-Hispanic Blacks (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17, 1.76) and Hispanics (AOR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.21, 1.67) had a higher risk of inadequate hydration than did non-Hispanic Whites. Lower-income adults had a higher risk of inadequate hydration than did higher-income adults (AOR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.45). Differences in tap water intake partially attenuated racial/ethnic differences in hydration status. Differences in total beverage and other fluid intake further attenuated sociodemographic disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in inadequate hydration among US adults are related to differences in tap water and other beverage intake. Policy action is needed to ensure equitable access to healthy beverages.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize policy and programmatic approaches to physical activity promotion and obesity prevention in childhood.

Participation in recommended levels of physical activity promotes a healthy body weight and reduced chronic disease risk. To inform investment in prevention initiatives, we simulate the national implementation, impact on physical activity and childhood obesity and associated cost-effectiveness (versus the status quo) of six recommended strategies that can be applied throughout childhood to increase physical activity in US school, afterschool and childcare settings. In 2016, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) systematic review process identified six interventions for study. A microsimulation model estimated intervention outcomes 2015-2025 including changes in mean MET-hours/day, intervention reach and cost per person, cost per MET-hour change, ten-year net costs to society and cases of childhood obesity prevented. First year reach of the interventions ranged from 90,000 youth attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to 31.3 million youth reached by Active School Day policies. Mean MET-hour/day/person increases ranged from 0.05 MET-hour/day/person for Active PE and Healthy Afterschool to 1.29 MET-hour/day/person for the implementation of New Afterschool Programs. Cost per MET-hour change ranged from cost saving to $3.14. Approximately 2500 to 110,000 cases of children with obesity could be prevented depending on the intervention implemented. All of the six interventions are estimated to increase physical activity levels among children and adolescents in the US population and prevent cases of childhood obesity. Results do not include other impacts of increased physical activity, including cognitive and behavioral effects. Decision-makers can use these methods to inform prioritization of physical activity promotion and obesity prevention on policy agendas.

US States' Childhood Obesity Surveillance Practices and Recommendations for Improving Them, 2014-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Routine collection, analysis, and reporting of data on child height, weight, and body mass index (BMI), particularly at the state and local levels, are needed to monitor the childhood obesity epidemic, plan intervention strategies, and evaluate the impact of interventions. Child BMI surveillance systems operated by the US government do not provide state or local data on children across a range of ages. The objective of this study was to describe the extent to which state governments conduct child BMI surveillance. METHODS: From August through December 2014, we conducted a structured telephone survey with state government administrators to learn about state surveillance of child BMI. We also searched websites of state health and education agencies for information about state surveillance. RESULTS: State agency administrators in 48 states and Washington, DC, completed telephone interviews (96% response rate). Based on our interviews and Internet research, we determined that 14 states collect child BMI data in a manner consistent with standard definitions of public health surveillance. CONCLUSION: The absence of child BMI surveillance systems in most states limits the ability of public health practitioners and policymakers to develop and evaluate responses to the childhood obesity epidemic. Greater investment in surveillance is needed to identify the most effective and cost-effective childhood obesity interventions.

Prevalence of Inadequate Hydration Among US Children and Disparities by Gender and Race/Ethnicity: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-2012.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the hydration status of US children and adolescents. METHODS: The sample included 4134 participants aged 6 to 19 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2009 to 2012. We calculated mean urine osmolality and the proportion with inadequate hydration (urine osmolality > 800 mOsm/kg). We calculated multivariable regression models to estimate the associations between demographic factors, beverage intake, and hydration status. RESULTS: The prevalence of inadequate hydration was 54.5%. Significantly higher urine osmolality was observed among boys (+92.0 mOsm/kg; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 69.5, 114.6), non-Hispanic Blacks (+67.6 mOsm/kg; 95% CI = 31.5, 103.6), and younger children (+28.5 mOsm/kg; 95% CI = 8.1, 48.9) compared with girls, Whites, and older children, respectively. Boys (OR = 1.76; 95% CI = 1.49, 2.07) and non-Hispanic Blacks (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.74) were also at significantly higher risk for inadequate hydration. An 8-fluid-ounce daily increase in water intake was associated with a significantly lower risk of inadequate hydration (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.93, 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Future research should explore drivers of gender and racial/ethnic disparities and solutions for improving hydration status.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of restaurant menu calorie labeling.

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the relationship between menu calorie labeling and calories ordered or purchased in the PubMed, Web of Science, PolicyFile, and PAIS International databases through October 2013. Among 19 studies, menu calorie labeling was associated with a -18.13 kilocalorie reduction ordered per meal with significant heterogeneity across studies (95% confidence interval = -33.56, -2.70; P = .021; I(2) = 61.0%). However, among 6 controlled studies in restaurant settings, labeling was associated with a nonsignificant -7.63 kilocalorie reduction (95% confidence interval = -21.02, 5.76; P = .264; I(2) = 9.8%). Although current evidence does not support a significant impact on calories ordered, menu calorie labeling is a relatively low-cost education strategy that may lead consumers to purchase slightly fewer calories. These findings are limited by significant heterogeneity among nonrestaurant studies and few studies conducted in restaurant settings.

Support for Policies to Improve the Nutritional Impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in California.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides a vital buffer against hunger and poverty for 47.6 million Americans. Using 2013 California Dietary Practices Survey data, we assessed support for policies to strengthen the nutritional influence of SNAP. Among SNAP participants, support ranged from 74% to 93% for providing monetary incentives for fruits and vegetables, restricting purchases of sugary beverages, and providing more total benefits. Nonparticipants expressed similar levels of support. These approaches may alleviate the burden of diet-related disease in low-income populations.

Public support for policies to improve the nutritional impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

OBJECTIVE: To determine public attitudes towards federal spending on nutrition assistance programmes and support for policies to improve the nutritional impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). DESIGN: Participants answered survey questions by telephone assessing support for SNAP spending and proposed programme policy changes. SETTING USA SUBJECTS: Survey of 3024 adults selected by random digit dialling conducted in April 2012, including 418 SNAP participants. RESULTS: A majority (77%; 95% CI 75, 79%) of all respondents supported maintaining or increasing SNAP benefits, with higher support among Democrats (88%; 95% CI 86, 90%) than Republicans (61%; 95% CI 58, 65%). The public supported policies to improve the nutritional impact of SNAP. Eighty-two per cent (95% CI 80, 84%) of respondents supported providing additional benefits to programme participants that can only be used on healthful foods. Sixty-nine per cent (95% CI 67, 71%) of respondents supported removing SNAP benefits for sugary drinks. A majority of SNAP participants (54%; 95% CI 48, 60%) supported removing SNAP benefits for sugary drinks. Of the 46% (95% CI 40, 52%) of SNAP participants who initially opposed removing sugary drinks, 45 % (95% CI 36, 54%) supported removing SNAP benefits for sugary drinks if the policy also included additional benefits to purchase healthful foods. CONCLUSIONS: The US public broadly supports increasing or maintaining spending on SNAP. The majority of respondents, including SNAP participants, supported policies to improve the nutritional impact of SNAP by restricting the purchase of sugary drinks and incentivizing purchase of healthful foods with SNAP benefits.

Cost-effectiveness of Improved WIC Food Package for Preventing Childhood Obesity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) prevents food insecurity and supports nutrition for more than 3 million low-income young children. Our objectives were to determine the cost-effectiveness of changes to WIC's nutrition standards in 2009 for preventing obesity and to estimate impacts on socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate impacts from 2010 through 2019 of the 2009 WIC food package change on obesity risk for children aged 2 to 4 years participating in WIC. Microsimulation models estimated the cases of obesity prevented in 2019 and costs per quality-adjusted-life year gained. RESULTS: An estimated 14.0 million 2- to 4-year old US children (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.7-14.2 million) were reached by the updated WIC nutrition standards from 2010 through 2019. In 2019, an estimated 62 700 (95% UI, 53 900-71 100) cases of childhood obesity were prevented, entirely among children from households with low incomes, leading to improved health equity. The update was estimated to cost $10 600 per quality-adjusted-life year gained (95% UI, $9760-$11 700). If WIC had reached all eligible children, more than twice as many cases of childhood obesity would have been prevented. CONCLUSIONS: Updates to WIC's nutrition standards for young children in 2009 were estimated to be highly cost-effective for preventing childhood obesity and contributed to reducing socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in obesity prevalence. Improving nutrition policies for young children can be a sound public health investment; future research should explore how to improve access to them.

Randomised experimental evaluation of a social media campaign to promote COVID-19 vaccination in Nigeria.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged public health and behaviour change programmes, and has led to the development of innovative interventions and research. In low -and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Nigeria, new strategies to promote vaccination, increase pro-vaccination social norms, and reduce vaccine hesitancy have been deployed through social media campaigns and evaluated using digital media platforms. Methods: We conducted two randomised experimental evaluations of social media content designed to promote COVID-19 vaccination and to complement research on a nationwide vaccination promotion campaign in Nigeria run in 2022. We conducted two studies in March and August 2022 among Nigerians drawn from 31 states that had not been targeted in the aforementioned nationwide campaign. We randomised the participants to either receive the pro-vaccination social media campaign or not and collected data at pre- and post-test time points to evaluate psychosocial predictors of vaccination and vaccination outcomes following the Theory of Change based on Diffusion of Innovations; the Social Norms Theory, and the Motivation, Opportunity, Ability (MOA) framework. Data were collected through a novel intervention delivery and data collection platform through social media. Results: We found that pro-vaccination social norms and vaccination rates increased, while vaccine hesitancy decreased among participants randomised to the social media intervention study arm. Conclusions: Social media campaigns are a promising approach to increasing vaccination at scale in LMICs, while social norms are an important factor in promoting vaccination, which is consistent with the Social Norms Theory. This study demonstrates the capability and potential of new social media-based data collection techniques. We describe implications for future vaccination campaigns and identify future research priorities in this area. Registration: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry: PACTR202310811597445.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains. METHODS: This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022. RESULTS: Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.