Comparing six cardiovascular risk prediction models in Haiti: implications for identifying high-risk individuals for primary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rapidly increasing in low-middle income countries (LMICs). Accurate risk assessment is essential to reduce premature CVD by targeting primary prevention and risk factor treatment among high-risk groups. Available CVD risk prediction models are built on predominantly Caucasian risk profiles from high-income country populations, and have not been evaluated in LMIC populations. We aimed to compare six existing models for predicted 10-year risk of CVD and identify high-risk groups for targeted prevention and treatment in Haiti. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data within the Haiti CVD Cohort Study, including 1345 adults ≥ 40 years without known history of CVD and with complete data. Six CVD risk prediction models were compared: pooled cohort equations (PCE), adjusted PCE with updated cohorts, Framingham CVD Lipids, Framingham CVD Body Mass Index (BMI), WHO Lipids, and WHO BMI. Risk factors were measured during clinical exams. Primary outcome was continuous and categorical predicted 10-year CVD risk. Secondary outcome was statin eligibility. RESULTS: Sixty percent were female, 66.8% lived on a daily income of ≤ 1 USD, 52.9% had hypertension, 14.9% had hypercholesterolemia, 7.8% had diabetes mellitus, 4.0% were current smokers, and 2.5% had HIV. Predicted 10-year CVD risk ranged from 3.6% in adjusted PCE (IQR 1.7-8.2) to 9.6% in Framingham-BMI (IQR 4.9-18.0), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.86 to 0.98. The percent of the cohort categorized as high risk using model specific thresholds ranged from 1.8% using the WHO-BMI model to 41.4% in the PCE model (χ2 = 1416, p value < 0.001). Statin eligibility also varied widely. CONCLUSIONS: In the Haiti CVD Cohort, there was substantial variation in the proportion identified as high-risk and statin eligible using existing models, leading to very different treatment recommendations and public health implications depending on which prediction model is chosen. There is a need to design and validate CVD risk prediction tools for low-middle income countries that include locally relevant risk factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03892265 .

Population-Based Epidemiology of Heart Failure in a Low-Income Country: The Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease disproportionately affects persons living in low- and middle-income countries and heart failure (HF) is thought to be a leading cause. Population-based studies characterizing the epidemiology of HF in these settings are lacking. We describe the age-standardized prevalence, survival, subtypes, risk factors, and 1-year mortality of HF in the population-based Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort. METHODS: Participants were recruited using multistage cluster-area random sampling in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. A total of 2981 completed standardized history and exam, laboratory measures, and cardiac imaging. Clinical HF was defined by Framingham criteria. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression assessed mortality among participants with and without HF; logistic regression identified associated factors. RESULTS: Among all participants, the median age was 40 years (interquartile range, 27-55), and 58.2% were female. Median follow-up was 15.4 months (interquartile range, 9-22). The age-standardized HF prevalence was 3.2% (93/2981 [95% CI, 2.6-3.9]). The average age of participants with HF was 57 years (interquartile range, 45-65), and 67.7% were female. The first significant increase in HF prevalence occurred between 30 to 39 and 40 to 49 years (1.1% versus 3.7%, P=0.003). HF with preserved ejection fraction was the most common HF subtype (71.0%). Age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.36 [1.12-1.66] per 10-year increase), hypertension (2.14 [1.26-3.66]), obesity (3.35 [95% CI, 1.99-5.62]), poverty (2.10 [1.18-3.72]), and renal dysfunction (5.42 [2.94-9.98]) were associated with HF. One-year HF mortality was 6.6% versus 0.8% (hazard ratio, 7.7 [95% CI, 2.9-20.6]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized prevalence of HF in this low-income setting was alarmingly high at 3.2%-5-fold higher than modeling estimates for low- and middle-income countries. Adults with HF were two decades younger and 7.7× more likely to die at 1 year compared with those in the community without HF. Further research characterizing the population burden of HF in low- and middle-income countries can guide resource allocation and development of pragmatic HF prevention and treatment interventions, ultimately reducing global cardiovascular disease health disparities. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03892265.

Comparison of community and clinic-based blood pressure measurements: A cross-sectional study from Haiti.

Hypertension (HTN) is the leading modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor in low and middle-income countries, and accurate and accessible blood pressure (BP) measurement is essential for identifying persons at risk. Given the convenience and increased use of community BP screening programs in low-income settings, we compared community and clinic BP measurements for participants in the Haiti CVD Cohort Study to determine the concordance of these two measurements. Participants were recruited using multistage random sampling from March 2019 to August 2021. HTN was defined as systolic BP (SBP) ≥ 140mmHg, diastolic BP (DBP) ≥ 90mmHg or taking antihypertensives according to WHO guidelines. Factors associated with concordance versus discordance of community and clinic BP measurements were assessed with multivariable Poisson regressions. Among 2,123 participants, median age was 41 years and 62% were female. Pearson correlation coefficients for clinic versus community SBP and DBP were 0.78 and 0.77, respectively. Using community BP measurements, 36% of participants screened positive for HTN compared with 30% using clinic BPs. The majority of participants had concordant measurements of normotension (59%) or HTN (26%) across both settings, with 4% having isolated elevated clinic BP (≥140/90 in clinic with normal community BP) and 10% with isolated elevated community BP (≥140/90 in community with normal clinic BP). These results underscore community BP measurements as a feasible and accurate way to increase HTN screening and estimate HTN prevalence for vulnerable populations with barriers to clinic access.

Diabetes Epidemiology Among Adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic noncommunicable disease associated with death and major disability, with increasing prevalence in low- and middle-income countries. There is limited population-based data about diabetes in Haiti. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of diabetes and associated factors among adults in Port-au-Prince, Haiti using a population-based cohort. Methods: This study analyzes cross-sectional enrollment data from the population-based Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort Study, conducted using multistage sampling with global positioning system waypoints in census blocks in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. A total of 3,005 adults ≥18 years old were enrolled from March 2019 to August 2021. We collected socio-demographic data, health-related behaviors, and clinical data using standardized questionnaires. Diabetes was defined as any of the following criteria: enrollment fasting glucose value ≥ 126 mg/dL or non-fasting glucose ≥ 200 mg/dL, patient self-report of taking diabetes medications, or study physician diagnosis of diabetes based on clinical evaluation. Results: Among 2985 (99.3%) with complete diabetes data, median age was 40 years, 58.1% were female, and 17.2% were obese. The prevalence of diabetes was 5.4% crude, and 5.2% age standardized. In unadjusted analysis, older age, higher body mass index (BMI), low physical activity, low education were associated with a higher odds of diabetes. After multivariable logistic regression, older age [60+ vs 18-29, Odds Ratio (OR)17.7, 95% CI 6.6 to 47.9] and higher BMI (obese vs normal/underweight, OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.4) remained statistically significantly associated with higher odds of diabetes. Conclusion: The prevalence of diabetes was relatively low among adults in Port-au-Prince, but much higher among certain groups (participants who were older and obese). The Haitian health system should be strengthened to prevent, diagnose, and treat diabetes among high-risk groups.