Immediate impact of COVID-19 pandemic on farming systems in Central America and Mexico.

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all sectors and human activities around the World. OBJECTIVE: In this article we present a first attempt to understand the immediate impact of COVID-19 and the sanitary measures taken by governments on farming systems in Central America and Mexico (CAM). METHODS: Through a review of information generated in these initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic (webinars, blogs, electronic publications, media) and 44 interviews with key informants across the region, we have identified the main impacts felt by different types of farming systems in the region. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: From corporate agricultural production systems, to small and medium scale entrepreneurs and smallholder subsistence farm households, all types of farming systems were impacted, more or less severely, by the different measures implemented by governments such as reduced mobility, closure of public and private venues and restrictions in borders. Larger corporate farming systems with vertical market integration and high level of control or coordination within the supply chain, and smallholder or subsistence farming systems with important focus on production for self-consumption and little external input use, were both relatively less impacted and showed greater adaptive capacity than the medium and small entrepreneurial farming systems dependent on agriculture as their primary income and with less control over the upstream and downstream parts of their supply chain. All types of farming systems implemented a series of mechanisms to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic including the development of alternative value chains, food and agricultural products delivery systems and the exponential use of digital means to communicate and maintain the viability of the different agricultural systems. Collective action and organization of farmers also proved to be an important coping mechanism that allowed some farmers to acquire inputs and deliver outputs in the context of restricted mobility, price volatility, and general uncertainty. Some features of the CAM region played an important role in mediating the impact of COVID-19 and associated sanitary measures. We identify as particularly relevant the nature of agricultural exports, the current structure of the agricultural sector, the diversified livelihood strategies of rural households, and the importance of mobility for rural livelihoods. SIGNIFICANCE: The results presented focus only in the immediate effect of COVID-19 pandemic and the mechanisms implemented by farmers in the first months. Whether these impacts and response mechanisms will result in a transformation of the farming systems towards greater resilience and sustainability is still an open question.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems.

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood. Objectives: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments. Methods: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed. Results and conclusion: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes. Significance: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.

Mining maize diversity and improving its nutritional aspects within agro-food systems.

Agro-food systems are undergoing rapid innovation in the world and the system's continuum is promoted at different scales with one of the main outcomes to improve nutrition of consumers. Consumer knowledge through educational outreach is important to food and nutrition security and consumer demands guide breeding efforts. Maize is an important part of food systems. It is a staple food and together with rice and wheat, they provide 60% of the world's caloric intake. In addition to being a major contributor to global food and nutrition security, maize forms an important part of the culinary culture in many areas of Africa, the Americas, and Asia. Maize genetics are being exploited to improve human nutrition with the ultimate outcome of improving overall health. By impacting the health of maize consumers, market opportunities will be opened for maize producers with unique genotypes. Although maize is a great source of macronutrients, it is also a source of many micronutrients and phytochemicals purported to confer health benefits. The process of biofortification through traditional plant breeding has increased the protein, provitamin A carotenoid, and zinc contents of maize. The objective of this paper is to review the innovations developed and promoted to improve the nutritional profiles of maize and outcomes of the maize agro-food system.

Drivers of household food availability in sub-Saharan Africa based on big data from small farms.

We calculated a simple indicator of food availability using data from 93 sites in 17 countries across contrasted agroecologies in sub-Saharan Africa (>13,000 farm households) and analyzed the drivers of variations in food availability. Crop production was the major source of energy, contributing 60% of food availability. The off-farm income contribution to food availability ranged from 12% for households without enough food available (18% of the total sample) to 27% for the 58% of households with sufficient food available. Using only three explanatory variables (household size, number of livestock, and land area), we were able to predict correctly the agricultural determined status of food availability for 72% of the households, but the relationships were strongly influenced by the degree of market access. Our analyses suggest that targeting poverty through improving market access and off-farm opportunities is a better strategy to increase food security than focusing on agricultural production and closing yield gaps. This calls for multisectoral policy harmonization, incentives, and diversification of employment sources rather than a singular focus on agricultural development. Recognizing and understanding diversity among smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa is key for the design of policies that aim to improve food security.

Climate smart agriculture, farm household typologies and food security: An ex-ante assessment from Eastern India.

One of the great challenges in agricultural development and sustainable intensification is the assurance of social equity in food security oriented interventions. Development practitioners, researchers, and policy makers alike could benefit from prior insight into what interventions or environmental shocks might differentially affect farmers' food security status, in order to move towards more informed and equitable development. We examined the food security status and livelihood activities of 269 smallholder farm households (HHs) in Bihar, India. Proceeding with a four-step analysis, we first applied a multivariate statistical methodology to differentiate five primary farming system types. We next applied an indicator of food security in the form of HH potential food availability (PFA), and examined the contribution of crop, livestock, and on- and off-farm income generation to PFA within each farm HH type. Lastly, we applied scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of the adoption of 'climate smart' agricultural (CSA) practices in the form of conservation agriculture (CA) and improved livestock husbandry, and environmental shocks on HH PFA. Our results indicate that compared to livestock interventions, CA may hold considerable potential to boost HH PFA, though primarily for wealthier and medium-scale cereal farmers. These farm HH types were however considerably more vulnerable to food insecurity risks resulting from simulated drought, while part-time farmers and resource-poor agricultural laborers generating income from off-farm pursuits were comparatively less vulnerable, due in part to their more diversified income sources and potential to migrate in search of work. Our results underscore the importance of prior planning for development initiatives aimed at increasing smallholder food security while maintaining social equity, while providing a robust methodology to vet the implications of agricultural interventions on an ex ante basis.

Prospective and participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems from farm to regional scales: Comparison of three modeling approaches.

Evaluating the impacts of the development of alternative agricultural systems, such as organic or low-input cropping systems, in the context of an agricultural region requires the use of specific tools and methodologies. They should allow a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account the field, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multicriteria) and participatory assessment, abbreviated PIAAS (for Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural System). In this paper, we compare the possible contribution to PIAAS of three modeling approaches i.e. Bio-Economic Modeling (BEM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and statistical Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. After a presentation of each approach, we analyze their advantages and drawbacks, and identify their possible complementarities for PIAAS. Statistical LUCC modeling is a suitable approach for multi-scale analysis of past changes and can be used to start discussion about the futures with stakeholders. BEM and ABM approaches have complementary features for scenarios assessment at different scales. While ABM has been widely used for participatory assessment, BEM has been rarely used satisfactorily in a participatory manner. On the basis of these results, we propose to combine these three approaches in a framework targeted to PIAAS.

Redesigning crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security.

Climate change poses daunting challenges to agricultural production and food security. Rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and more frequent extreme events have already demonstrated their effects on local, regional, and global agricultural systems. Crop varieties that withstand climate-related stresses and are suitable for cultivation in innovative cropping systems will be crucial to maximize risk avoidance, productivity, and profitability under climate-changed environments. We surveyed 588 expert stakeholders to predict current and novel traits that may be essential for future pearl millet, sorghum, maize, groundnut, cowpea, and common bean varieties, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We then review the current progress and prospects for breeding three prioritized future-essential traits for each of these crops. Experts predict that most current breeding priorities will remain important, but that rates of genetic gain must increase to keep pace with climate challenges and consumer demands. Importantly, the predicted future-essential traits include innovative breeding targets that must also be prioritized; for example, (1) optimized rhizosphere microbiome, with benefits for P, N, and water use efficiency, (2) optimized performance across or in specific cropping systems, (3) lower nighttime respiration, (4) improved stover quality, and (5) increased early vigor. We further discuss cutting-edge tools and approaches to discover, validate, and incorporate novel genetic diversity from exotic germplasm into breeding populations with unprecedented precision, accuracy, and speed. We conclude that the greatest challenge to developing crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security might be our innovativeness in defining and boldness to breed for the traits of tomorrow.

Projecting wheat demand in China and India for 2030 and 2050: Implications for food security.

Introduction: The combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294-1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89-1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050? Methods: Applying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the "varsoc" command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand. Results: This study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption. Discussions: Our results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.

The importance of the traditional milpa in food security and nutritional self-sufficiency in the highlands of Oaxaca, Mexico.

Around 30% of global food is produced by smallholder farmers, yet they constitute the most food-insecure group. In Mexico, food self-sufficiency is declining. Rural policies in the country have stimulated the production of cash crops to the detriment of the traditional intercropping system, the milpa. Such a decline may have negative consequences for the food security of subsistence farmers. This study aimed to assess changes in nutritional self-sufficiency over the last 30 years and the role of milpa systems in food security for two communities in the highlands of Oaxaca, Mexico. The study used satellite images, censuses, and field data to estimate food production. Three cropping systems, monoculture of maize, monoculture of common bean, and the milpa were compared in terms of nutrients and vitamins produced. Furthermore, a household typology was developed for each community to contrast nutritional self-sufficiency levels between the different household types. Results showed that the milpa produced more volume of food per area compared to the other systems. The milpa also produced all the nutrients and vitamins (except for B12) required to feed at least 2 persons ha-1. Monocultures of maize lacked vitamins A, B9, B12, and C, and the common bean lacked vitamins A, B12, and C. While farmers recognized the importance of the milpa, they preferred monocultures due to the reduced labor demands of this system. Households that obtained most of their income from off-farm activities had the lowest nutritional self-sufficiency. Enhancing nutritional self-sufficiency through crop diversification has the potential to not only improve the nutrition of subsistence farmers, but also to enhance ecosystem service provision, promote biodiversity conservation and restoration, and improve resilience to climate change.

Maize intercropping in the milpa system. Diversity, extent and importance for nutritional security in the Western Highlands of Guatemala.

We present an assessment of the extent, diversity, and nutritional contribution of the milpa through a quantitative analysis of data from a survey conducted in 989 small scale farm households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala (WHG). The milpa is a traditional agricultural system in which maize is intercropped with other species, such as common beans, faba beans, squashes or potatoes. Our study shows that more than two-thirds of the 1,205 plots recorded were under the milpa system, with a great diversity of crop combinations. As shown with the 357 plots for which specific yields were available, milpa systems present higher total productivity than monocropped maize, expressed as total energy yield of the harvested crops in the respective system, and were also better at providing the recommended daily allowances of fourteen essential nutrients, based on a Potential Nutrient Adequacy (PNA) indicator. Maize-bean-potato, maize-potato, and maize-bean-faba intercrops had the highest PNAs, and monocropped maize, the lowest. These results support the implementation of milpa systems tailored to different agro-ecologies in order to improve nutrition in the WHG and a variety of similar regions.

Farm typology for planning targeted farming systems interventions for smallholders in Indo-Gangetic Plains of India.

Due to complexity of smallholder farms, many times technologies with great potential fail to achieve the desired impact in leveraging productivity and profitability of the farming community. In the Indo-Gangetic Plains there is an urgent need to understand the diversity of farm households, identifying the main drivers deciding their system thus, classifying them into homogenous groups. In the present study, the diversity of smallholder farms was assessed using crop, livestock and income related characteristics and associated farm mechanization. Using principal component analysis and cluster analysis for 252 farm households, 4 farm types were identified i.e. Type 1. Small Farm households with cereal-based cropping system and subsistence livestock (39%), Type 2. Small Farm households with diversified cropping system dominated by cereal and fodder crops with only cattle herd (9%), Type 3. Marginal Farm household with diversified cropping system dominated by cash crop and herd comprising of only cattle (39%), Type 4. Marginal Farm household with diversified cropping system dominated by cereal crops and herd dominated by small ruminants (12%). Based on the constraints identified for different components of farming systems, low-cost interventions were planned for each farm type. These interventions have resulted in 84.8-103.2 per cent increase in the income of the farm HH under study suggesting usefulness of typology-based intervention planning in increasing income of small farm holders.

Towards more sustainable agricultural landscapes: Lessons from Northwestern Mexico and the Western Highlands of Guatemala.

A systematic process for assessing progress toward landscape sustainability goals is developed and tested. Application of the approach builds capacity and promotes continual improvements in management practices, thus enabling timely action to address changing conditions while progressing toward locally defined goals. We consider how the approach applies to agricultural landscapes, that is farm ecosystem interactions with the environment and human well-being. We present lessons learned from applying the assessment approach in two contrasting situations: large, high-input, commercial agriculture in northwestern Mexico and small, low-input family farms in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Applying the approach reveals five attributes required for success and the means to achieve those conditions. (1) Having a capable local champion for the project is critical. (2) Implementation of the approach must be in concert with local people and organizations as well as with regional and national policies and programs. (3) Identification and engagement of key stakeholders is essential. (4) Application of the approach is not meant to be a one-time effort but rather an ongoing and systematic process. (5) Engagement and buy-in from stakeholders including multiple agency levels is essential for allocation of necessary resources and logistic support in the continuing implementation of the approach.

Environmental evaluation of transfer and treatment of excess pig slurry by life cycle assessment.

Slurry management is a central topic in the agronomic and environmental analysis of intensive livestock production systems. The objective of this study is to compare the environmental performance of two scenarios of collective slurry management for the disposal of excess nitrogen from animal manure. The scenarios are the transfer of slurry and its injection to crop land, and the treatment of slurry in a collective biological treatment station. The study is based on a real case in the West of France, where a group of farmers is developing a collective plan for the disposal of almost 7000 m(3) of excess pig slurry. The evaluation is carried out by Life Cycle Assessment, where emissions and resource consumption are quantified and aggregated into four environmental impact categories: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, and non-renewable energy use. Ammonia emitted is the most important contributor to acidification and eutrophication, while methane contributes most to climate change. Both ammonia and methane are mostly emitted during the storage of slurry and, in the case of the treatment scenario, also during composting the solid fraction of the slurry. The two management strategies are similar with respect to climate change, whereas eutrophication and acidification are twice as large for treatment relative to transfer. Electricity needed for the treatment process is the main contributor to non-renewable energy use for the treatment scenario, while the transfer scenario represents a net energy saving, as energy saved by the reduction of mineral fertiliser use more than compensates for the energy needed for transport and injection of slurry. The overall environmental performance of transfer is better than that of treatment, as it involves less acidification, eutrophication and non-renewable energy use. The method employed and the results obtained in this study can provide elements for a transparent discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting excess slurry management scenarios as well as the identification of the main aspects determining their environmental performance.