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BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Most prediction models, like return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after cardiac arrest (RACA) or Utstein-based (UB)-ROSC score, were developed for prehospital settings to predict the probability of ROSC in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). A prediction model has been lacking for the probability of ROSC in patients with OHCA at emergency departments (EDs). OBJECTIVE: In the present study, a point-of-care (POC) testing-based model, POC-ED-ROSC, was developed and validated for predicting ROSC of OHCA at EDs. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospectively collected data for adult OHCA patients between 2015 and 2020 were analysed. POC blood gas analysis obtained within 5 min of ED arrival was used. OUTCOMES MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was ROSC. In the derivation cohort, multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the POC-ED-ROSC model. In the temporally split validation cohort, the discriminative performance of the POC-ED-ROSC model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and compared with RACA or UB-ROSC score using DeLong test. MAIN RESULTS: The study included 606 and 270 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the total cohort, 471 patients achieved ROSC. Age, initial cardiac rhythm at ED, pre-hospital resuscitation duration, and POC testing-measured blood levels of lactate, potassium and glucose were significant predictors included in the POC-ED-ROSC model. The model was validated with fair discriminative performance (AUC: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.81) with no significant differences from RACA (AUC: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.62-0.74) or UB-ROSC score (AUC: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.68-0.79). CONCLUSION: Using only six easily accessible variables, the POC-ED-ROSC model can predict ROSC for OHCA resuscitated at ED with fair accuracy.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Humanos , Adulto , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/diagnóstico , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Retorno da Circulação Espontânea , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Curva ROCRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the recent status of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in the U.S. emergency department (ED). This study aimed to describe the disease burden (visit and hospitalization rate) of AECOPD in the ED and to investigate factors associated with the disease burden of AECOPD. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), 2010-2018. Adult ED visits (aged 40 years or above) with AECOPD were identified using International Classification of Diseases codes. Analysis used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression accounting for NHAMCS's complex survey design. RESULTS: There were 1,366 adult AECOPD ED visits in the unweighted sample. Over the 9-year study period, there were an estimated 7,508,000 ED visits for AECOPD, and the proportion of AECOPD visits in the entire ED population remained stable at approximately 14 per 1,000 visits. The mean age of these AECOPD visits was 66 years, and 42% were men. Medicare or Medicaid insurance, presentation in non-summer seasons, the Midwest and South regions (vs. Northeast), and arrival by ambulance were independently associated with a higher visit rate of AECOPD, whereas non-Hispanic black or Hispanic race/ethnicity (vs. non-Hispanic white) was associated with a lower visit rate of AECOPD. The proportion of AECOPD visits that were hospitalized decreased from 51% to 2010 to 31% in 2018 (p = 0.002). Arrival by ambulance was independently associated with a higher hospitalization rate, whereas the South and West regions (vs. Northeast) were independently associated with a lower hospitalization rate. The use of antibiotics appeared to be stable over time, but the use of systemic corticosteroids appeared to increase with near statistical significance (p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: The number of ED visits for AECOPD remained high; however, hospitalizations for AECOPD appeared to decrease over time. Some patients were disproportionately affected by AECOPD, and certain patient and ED factors were associated with hospitalizations. The reasons for decreased ED admissions for AECOPD deserve further investigation.
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Medicare , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Adulto , Masculino , Humanos , Idoso , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Feminino , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/epidemiologia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/terapia , Hospitalização , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Classificação Internacional de DoençasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Little is known about pain trajectories in the emergency department (ED), which could inform the heterogeneous response to pain treatment. We aimed to identify clinically relevant subphenotypes of pain resolution in the ED and their relationships with clinical outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center. We retrieved data from 733,398 ED visits over a 7-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and retrieved data including patient demographics, triage data, repeated pain scores evaluated on a numeric rating scale, pain characteristics, laboratory markers, and patient disposition. The primary outcome measures were hospitalization and ED revisit. RESULTS: 28,105 adult ED patients were included with a total of 154,405 pain measurements. Three distinct pain trajectory groups were identified: no pain (57.1%); moderate-to-severe pain, fast resolvers (17.9%); and moderate pain, slow resolvers (24.9%). The fast resolvers responded well to treatment and were independently associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.81). By contrast, the slow resolvers had lingering pain in the ED and were independently associated with a higher risk of ED revisit (aOR, 2.65; 95%CI, 1.85-3.69). This group also had higher levels of inflammatory markers, including a higher leukocyte count and a higher level of C-reactive protein. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three novel pain subphenotypes with distinct patterns in clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. A better understanding of the pain trajectories may help with the personalized approach to pain management in the ED.
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Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Triagem , Adulto , Biomarcadores , Hospitalização , Humanos , Dor , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: After years of setting up public automated external defibrillators (AEDs), the rate of bystander AED use remains low all over the world. This study aimed to assess the public awareness and willingness of bystanders to use AEDs and to investigate the awareness on the Good Samaritan Law (GSL) and the factors associated with the low rate of bystander AED use. METHODS: Using stratified random sampling, national telephone interviews were conducted using an author-designed structured questionnaire. The results were weighted to match the census data in Taiwan. The factors associated with public awareness and willingness of bystanders to use AEDs were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1073 respondents, only 15.2% had the confidence to recognise public AEDs, and 5.3% of them had the confidence to use the AED. Concerns on immature technique and legal issues remain the most common barriers to AED use by bystanders. Moreover, only 30.8% thought that the public should use AEDs at the scene. Few respondents (9.6%) ever heard of the GSL in Taiwan, and less than 3% understood the meaning of GSL. Positive awareness on AEDs was associated with high willingness of bystanders to use AEDs. Respondents who were less likely to use AEDs as bystanders were healthcare personnel and women. CONCLUSION: The importance of active awareness and the barriers to the use of AEDs among bystanders seemed to have been underestimated in the past years. The relatively low willingness to use AEDs among bystander healthcare providers and women needs further investigation.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Desfibriladores , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Feminino , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Inquéritos e Questionários , TaiwanRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A low bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) rate is one of the factors associated with low cardiac arrest survival. This study aimed to assess knowledge, attitudes, and willingness towards performing CPR and the barriers for implementation of bystander-initiated CPR. METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted using an author-designed and validated structured questionnaire in Taiwan. After obtaining a stratified random sample from the census, the results were weighted to match population data. The factors affecting bystander-initiated CPR were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 1073 respondents, half of them stated that they knew how to perform CPR correctly, although 86.7% indicated a willingness to perform CPR on strangers. The barriers to CPR performance reported by the respondents included fear of legal consequences (44%) and concern about harming patients (36.5%). Most participants expressed a willingness to attend only an hour-long CPR course. Respondents who were less likely to indicate a willingness to perform CPR were female, healthcare providers, those who had no cohabiting family members older than 65 years, those who had a history of a stroke, and those who expressed a negative attitude toward CPR. CONCLUSION: The expressed willingness to perform bystander CPR was high if the respondents possessed the required skills. Attempts should be made to recruit potential bystanders for CPR courses or education, targeting those respondent subgroups less likely to express willingness to perform CPR. The reason for lower bystander CPR willingness among healthcare providers deserves further investigation.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/psicologia , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Adulto , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/educação , Estudos Transversais , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/mortalidade , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Taiwan , Adulto JovemRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: High-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a key factor affecting cardiac arrest survival. Accurate monitoring and real-time feedback are emphasized to improve CPR quality. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a novel depth estimation algorithm based on a smartwatch equipped with a built-in accelerometer for feedback instructions during CPR. METHODS: For data collection and model building, researchers wore an Android Wear smartwatch and performed chest compression-only CPR on a Resusci Anne QCPR training manikin. We developed an algorithm based on the assumptions that (1) maximal acceleration measured by the smartwatch accelerometer and the chest compression depth (CCD) are positively correlated and (2) the magnitude of acceleration at a specific time point and interval is correlated with its neighboring points. We defined a statistic value M as a function of time and the magnitude of maximal acceleration. We labeled and processed collected data and determined the relationship between M value, compression rate and CCD. We built a model accordingly, and developed a smartwatch app capable of detecting CCD. For validation, researchers wore a smartwatch with the preinstalled app and performed chest compression-only CPR on the manikin at target sessions. We compared the CCD results given by the smartwatch and the reference using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test (WSRT), and used Bland-Altman (BA) analysis to assess the agreement between the two methods. RESULTS: We analyzed a total of 3978 compressions that covered the target rate of 80-140/min and CCD of 4-7â¯cm. WSRT showed that there was no significant difference between the two methods (Pâ¯=â¯0.084). By BA analysis the mean of differences was 0.003 and the bias between the two methods was not significant (95% CI: -0.079 to 0.085). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that the algorithm developed for estimating CCD based on a smartwatch with a built-in accelerometer is promising. Further studies will be conducted to evaluate its application for CPR training and clinical practice.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/métodos , Parada Cardíaca/terapia , Aplicativos Móveis , Monitorização Ambulatorial/instrumentação , Dispositivos Eletrônicos Vestíveis , Aceleração , Algoritmos , Retroalimentação , Humanos , Manequins , Modelos Estatísticos , Padrões de Referência , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Software , Fluxo de TrabalhoRESUMO
Background: Emergency department cardiac arrest (EDCA) is a global public health challenge associated with high mortality rates and poor neurological outcomes. This study aimed to describe the incidence, risk factors, and causes of EDCA during emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used data from the 2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS). Adult ED visits with EDCA were identified using the cardiopulmonary resuscitation code. We used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression, considering NEDS's complex survey design. The primary outcome measure was EDCA incidence. Results: In 2019, there were approximately 232,000 ED visits with cardiac arrest in the U.S. The incidence rate of EDCA was approximately 0.2%. Older age, being male, black race, low median household income, weekend ED visits, having Medicare insurance, and ED visits in non-summer seasons were associated with a higher risk of EDCA. Hispanic race was associated with a lower risk of EDCA. Certain comorbidities (e.g., diabetes and cancer), trauma centers, hospitals with a metropolitan and/or teaching program, and hospitals in the South were associated with a higher risk of EDCA. Depression, dementia, and hypothyroidism were associated with a lower risk of EDCA. Septicemia, acute myocardial infarction, and respiratory failure, followed by drug overdose, were the predominant causes of EDCA. Conclusions: Some patients were disproportionately affected by EDCA. Strategies should be developed to target these modifiable risk factors, specifically factors within ED's control, to reduce the subsequent disease burden.
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Background: During cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) is primarily determined by pulmonary blood flow, thereby reflecting the blood flow generated by CPR. We aimed to develop an EtCO2 trajectory-based prediction model for prognostication at specific time points during CPR in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Methods: We screened patients receiving CPR between 2015-2021 from a prospectively collected database of a tertiary-care medical center. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify the EtCO2 trajectories. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for model development and internally validated using bootstrapping. We assessed performance of the model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The primary analysis included 542 patients with a median age of 68.0 years. Three distinct EtCO2 trajectories were identified in patients resuscitated for 20 minutes (min): low (average EtCO2 10.0 millimeters of mercury [mm Hg]; intermediate (average EtCO2 26.5 mm Hg); and high (average EtCO2: 51.5 mm Hg). Twenty-min EtCO2 trajectory was fitted as an ordinal variable (low, intermediate, and high) and positively associated with survival (odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-4.74). When the 20-min EtCO2 trajectory was combined with other variables, including arrest location and arrest rhythms, the AUC of the 20-min prediction model for survival was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92). All predictors in the 20-min model remained statistically significant after bootstrapping. Conclusion: Time-specific EtCO2 trajectory was a significant predictor of OHCA outcomes, which could be combined with other baseline variables for intra-arrest prognostication. For this purpose, the 20-min survival model achieved excellent discriminative performance in predicting survival to hospital discharge.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/mortalidade , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/metabolismo , Feminino , Masculino , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Idoso , Prognóstico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Volume de Ventilação Pulmonar , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROCRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between the temporal transitions in heart rhythms during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. METHODS: This was an analysis of the prospectively collected databases in 3 academic hospitals in northern and central Taiwan. Adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest transported by emergency medical service between 2015 and 2022 were included. Favorable neurological recovery and survival to hospital discharge were the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Time-specific heart rhythm shockability was defined as the probability of shockable rhythms at a particular time point during CPR. The temporal changes in the time-specific heart rhythm shockability were calculated by group-based trajectory modeling. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between the trajectory group and outcomes. Subgroup analyses examined the effects of extracorporeal CPR in different trajectories. RESULTS: The study comprised 2118 patients. The median patient age was 69.1 years, and 1376 (65.0%) patients were male. Three distinct trajectories were identified: high-shockability (52 patients; 2.5%), intermediate-shockability (262 patients; 12.4%), and low-shockability (1804 patients; 85.2%) trajectories. The median proportion of shockable rhythms over the course of CPR for the 3 trajectories was 81.7% (interquartile range, 73.2%-100.0%), 26.7% (interquartile range, 16.7%-37.5%), and 0% (interquartile range, 0%-0%), respectively. The multivariable analysis indicated both intermediate- and high-shockability trajectories were associated with favorable neurological recovery (intermediate-shockability: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.98 [95% CI, 2.34-10.59]; high-shockability: aOR, 5.40 [95% CI, 2.03-14.32]) and survival (intermediate-shockability: aOR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.44-4.18]; high-shockability: aOR, 2.76 [95% CI, 1.20-6.38]). The subgroup analysis further indicated extracorporeal CPR was significantly associated with favorable neurological outcomes (aOR, 4.06 [95% CI, 1.11-14.81]) only in the intermediate-shockability trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Heart rhythm shockability trajectories were associated with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest outcomes, which may be a supplementary factor in guiding the allocation of medical resources, such as extracorporeal CPR.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Bases de Dados Factuais , Cardioversão Elétrica , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Recuperação de Função Fisiológica , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/mortalidade , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/diagnóstico , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Idoso , Feminino , Reanimação Cardiopulmonar/mortalidade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cardioversão Elétrica/instrumentação , Cardioversão Elétrica/mortalidade , Cardioversão Elétrica/efeitos adversos , Resultado do Tratamento , Fatores de Tempo , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Frequência Cardíaca , Medição de Risco , Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea/mortalidade , Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Introduction: Timely diagnosis of patients affected by an emerging infectious disease plays a crucial role in treating patients and avoiding disease spread. In prior research, we developed an approach by using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on clinical features of patients visiting an emergency department (ED) during the early coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, we aimed to externally validate this approach within a distinct ED population. Methods: To create our training/validation cohort (model development) we collected data retrospectively from suspected COVID-19 patients at a US ED from February 23-May 12, 2020. Another dataset was collected as an external validation (testing) cohort from an ED in another country from May 12-June 15, 2021. Clinical features including patient demographics and triage information were used to train and test the models. The primary outcome was the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, defined as a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2. We employed three different ML algorithms, including gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees classifiers, to construct the predictive model. The predictive performances were evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the testing cohort. Results: In total, 580 and 946 ED patients were included in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Of them, 98 (16.9%) and 180 (19.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. All the constructed ML models showed acceptable discrimination, as indicated by the AUC. Among them, random forest (0.785, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.747-0.822) performed better than gradient boosting (0.774, 95% CI 0.739-0.811) and extra trees classifier (0.72, 95% CI 0.677-0.762). There was no significant difference between the constructed models. Conclusion: Our study validates the use of ML for predicting COVID-19 in the ED and demonstrates its potential for predicting emerging infectious diseases based on models built by clinical features with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. This approach holds promise for scenarios where effective diagnostic tools for an emerging infectious disease may be lacking in the future.
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COVID-19 , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , SARS-CoV-2 , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Aprendizado de MáquinaRESUMO
Transferring patients between emergency departments (EDs) is a complex but important issue in emergency care regionalization. Social network analysis (SNA) is well-suited to characterize the ED transfer pattern. We aimed to unravel the underlying transfer network structure and to identify key network metrics for monitoring network functions. This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Electronic Referral System (NERS) database in Taiwan. All interhospital ED transfers from 2014 to 2016 were included and transfer characteristics were retrieved. Descriptive statistics and social network analysis were used to analyze the data. There were a total of 218,760 ED transfers during the 3-year study period. In the network analysis, there were a total of 199 EDs with 9516 transfer ties between EDs. The network demonstrated a multiple hub-and-spoke, regionalized pattern, with low global density (0.24), moderate centralization (0.57), and moderately high clustering of EDs (0.63). At the ED level, most transfers were one-way, with low reciprocity (0.21). Sending hospitals had a median of 5 transfer-out partners [interquartile range (IQR) 3-7), while receiving hospitals a median of 2 (IQR 1-6) transfer-in partners. A total of 16 receiving hospitals, all of which were designated base or co-base hospitals, had 15 or more transfer-in partners. Social network analysis of transfer patterns between hospitals confirmed that the network structure largely aligned with the planned regionalized transfer network in Taiwan. Understanding the network metrics helps track the structure and process aspects of regionalized care.
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Transferência de Pacientes , Análise de Rede Social , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taiwan , Serviço Hospitalar de EmergênciaRESUMO
In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in the emergency department (ED) is not uncommon but often fatal. Using the machine learning (ML) approach, we sought to predict ED-based IHCA (EDCA) in patients presenting to the ED based on triage data. We retrieved 733,398 ED records from a tertiary teaching hospital over a 7 year period (Jan. 1, 2009-Dec. 31, 2015). We included only adult patients (≥ 18 y) and excluded cases presenting as out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Primary outcome (EDCA) was identified via a resuscitation code. Patient demographics, triage data, and structured chief complaints (CCs), were extracted. Stratified split was used to divide the dataset into the training and testing cohort at a 3-to-1 ratio. Three supervised ML models were trained and performances were evaluated and compared to the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and logistic regression (LR) model by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We included 316,465 adult ED records for analysis. Of them, 636 (0.2%) developed EDCA. Of the constructed ML models, Random Forest outperformed the others with the best AUC result (0.931, 95% CI 0.911-0.949), followed by Gradient Boosting (0.930, 95% CI 0.909-0.948) and Extra Trees classifier (0.915, 95% CI 0.892-0.936). Although the differences between each of ML models and LR (AUC: 0.905, 95% CI 0.882-0.926) were not significant, all constructed ML models performed significantly better than using the NEWS2 scoring system (AUC 0.678, 95% CI 0.635-0.722). Our ML models showed excellent discriminatory performance to identify EDCA based only on the triage information. This ML approach has the potential to reduce unexpected resuscitation events if successfully implemented in the ED information system.
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Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Adulto , Humanos , Aprendizado de Máquina , Modelos Logísticos , Triagem , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , HospitaisRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Accurate pain assessment is essential in the emergency department (ED) triage process. Overestimation of pain intensity, however, can lead to unnecessary overtriage. The study aimed to investigate the influence of pain on patient outcomes and how pain intensity modulates the triage's predictive capabilities on these outcomes. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital, enrolling adult patients in the triage station. The entire triage process was captured on video. Two pain assessment methods were employed: (1) Self-reported pain score in the Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale, referred to as the system-based method; (2) Five physicians independently assigned triage levels and assessed pain scores from video footage, termed the physician-based method. The primary outcome was hospitalization, and secondary outcomes included ED length of stay (EDLOS) and ED charges. RESULTS: Of the 656 patients evaluated, the median self-reported pain score was 4 (interquartile range, 0-7), while the median physician-rated pain score was 1.5 (interquartile range, 0-3). Increased self-reported pain severity was not associated with prolonged EDLOS and increased ED charges, but a positive association was identified with physician-rated pain scores. Using the system-based method, the predictive efficacy of triage scales was lower in the pain groups than in the pain-free group (area under the receiver operating curve, [AUROC]: 0.615 vs. 0.637). However, with the physician-based method, triage scales were more effective in predicting hospitalization among patients with pain than those without (AUROC: 0.650 vs. 0.636). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported pain seemed to diminish the predictive accuracy of triage for hospitalization. In contrast, physician-rated pain scores were positively associated with longer EDLOS, increased ED charges, and enhanced triage predictive capability for hospitalization. Pain, therefore, appears to modulate the relationship between triage and patient outcomes, highlighting the need for careful pain evaluation in the ED.
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Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Hospitalização , Adulto , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Medição da Dor , Dor , Triagem/métodosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Healthcare professionals frequently experience work-related fatigue, which may jeopardize their health and put patient safety at risk. In this study, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach based on data collected from a smartwatch to construct prediction models of work-related fatigue for emergency clinicians. METHODS: We conducted this prospective study at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary teaching hospital from March 10-June 20, 2021, where we recruited physicians, nurses, and nurse practitioners. All participants wore a commercially available smartwatch capable of measuring various physiological data during the experiment. Participants completed the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory (MFI) web form before and after each of their work shifts. We calculated and labeled the before-and-after-shift score differences between each pair of scores. Using several tree-based algorithms, we constructed the prediction models based on features collected from the smartwatch. Records were split into training/validation and testing sets at a 70:30 ratio, and we evaluated the performances using the area under the curve (AUC) measure of receiver operating characteristic on the test set. RESULTS: In total, 110 participants were included in this study, contributing to a set of 1,542 effective records. Of these records, 85 (5.5%) were labeled as having work-related fatigue when setting the MFI difference between two standard deviations as the threshold. The mean age of the participants was 29.6. Most of the records were collected from nurses (87.7%) and females (77.5%). We selected a union of 31 features to construct the models. For total participants, CatBoost classifier achieved the best performances of AUC (0.838, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.742-0.918) to identify work-related fatigue. By focusing on a subgroup of nurses <35 years in age, XGBoost classifier obtained excellent performance of AUC (0.928, 95% CI 0.839-0.991) on the test set. CONCLUSION: By using features derived from a smartwatch, we successfully built ML models capable of classifying the risk of work-related fatigue in the ED. By collecting more data to optimize the models, it should be possible to use smartwatch-based ML models in the future to predict work-related fatigue and adopt preventive measures for emergency clinicians.
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Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Aprendizado de Máquina , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Previsões , Atenção à SaúdeRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: The return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest (RACA) score is a well-validated model for estimating the probability of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) by incorporating several variables, including gender, age, arrest aetiology, witness status, arrest location, initial cardiac rhythms, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and emergency medical services (EMS) arrival time. The RACA score was initially designed for comparisons between different EMS systems by standardising ROSC rates. End-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) is a quality indicator of CPR. We aimed to improve the performance of the RACA score by adding minimum EtCO2 measured during CPR to develop the EtCO2 + RACA score for OHCA patients transported to an emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis using prospectively collected data for OHCA patients resuscitated at an ED during 2015-2020. Adult patients with advanced airways inserted and available EtCO2 measurements were included. We used the EtCO2 values recorded in the ED for analysis. The primary outcome was ROSC. In the derivation cohort, we used multivariable logistic regression to develop the model. In the temporally split validation cohort, we assessed the discriminative performance of the EtCO2 + RACA score by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared it with the RACA score using the DeLong test. RESULTS: There were 530 and 228 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The median measurements of EtCO2 were 8.0 times (interquartile range [IQR] 3.0-12.0 times), with the median minimum EtCO2 of 15.5 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg) (IQR 8.0-26.0 mm Hg). The median RACA score was 36.4% (IQR 28.9-48.0%), and a total of 393 patients (51.8%) achieved ROSC. The EtCO2 + RACA score was validated with good discriminative performance (AUC, 0.82, 95% CI 0.77-0.88), outperforming the RACA score (AUC, 0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.78) (DeLong test: P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The EtCO2 + RACA score may facilitate the decision-making process regarding allocations of medical resources in EDs for OHCA resuscitation.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Adulto , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Dióxido de Carbono , Retorno da Circulação Espontânea , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Little is known about pulmonary embolism (PE) in the United States emergency department (ED). This study aimed to describe the disease burden (visit rate and hospitalization) of PE in the ED and to investigate factors associated with its burden. Data were obtained from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) from 2010 to 2018. Adult ED visits with PE were identified using the International Classification of Diseases codes. Analyses used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression accounting for the NHAMCS's complex survey design. Over the 9-year study period, there were an estimated 1,500,000 ED visits for PE, and the proportion of PE visits in the entire ED population increased from 0.1% in 2010-2012 to 0.2% in 2017-2018 (P for trend = 0.002). The mean age was 57 years, and 40% were men. Older age, obesity, history of cancer, and history of venous thromboembolism were independently associated with a higher proportion of PE, whereas the Midwest region was associated with a lower proportion of PE. The utilization of chest computed tomography (CT) scan appeared stable, which was performed in approximately 43% of the visits. About 66% of PE visits were hospitalized, and the trend remained stable. Male sex, arrival during the morning shift, and higher triage levels were independently associated with a higher hospitalization rate, whereas the fall and winter months were independently associated with a lower hospitalization rate. Approximately 8.8% of PE patients were discharged with direct-acting oral anticoagulants. The ED visits for PE continued to increase despite the stable trend in CT use, suggesting a combination of prevalent and incident PE cases in the ED. Hospitalization for PE remains common practice. Some patients are disproportionately affected by PE, and certain patient and hospital factors are associated with hospitalization decisions.
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Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Embolia Pulmonar , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Embolia Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à SaúdeRESUMO
Background: Previous studies have identified COVID-19 risk factors, such as age and chronic health conditions, linked to severe outcomes and mortality. However, accurately predicting severe illness in COVID-19 patients remains challenging, lacking precise methods. Objective: This study aimed to leverage clinical real-world data and multiple machine-learning algorithms to formulate innovative predictive models for assessing the risk of severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: Data were obtained from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD) including electronic health records from three Taiwanese hospitals in Taiwan. This study included patients admitted to the hospitals who received an initial diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 1, 2021, and May 31, 2022. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of severe infection, including ventilator use, intubation, ICU admission, and mortality. Secondary outcomes consisted of individual indicators. The dataset encompassed demographic data, health status, COVID-19 specifics, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results. Two modes (full mode and simplified mode) are used; the former includes all features, and the latter only includes the 30 most important features selected based on the algorithm used by the best model in full mode. Seven machine learning was employed algorithms the performance of the models was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The study encompassed 22,192 eligible in-patients diagnosed with COVID-19. In the full mode, the model using the light gradient boosting machine algorithm achieved the highest AUROC value (0.939), with an accuracy of 85.5%, a sensitivity of 0.897, and a specificity of 0.853. Age, vaccination status, neutrophil count, sodium levels, and platelet count were significant features. In the simplified mode, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm yielded an AUROC of 0.935, an accuracy of 89.9%, a sensitivity of 0.843, and a specificity of 0.902. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of constructing precise predictive models for severe outcomes or mortality in COVID-19 patients by leveraging significant predictors and advanced machine learning. These findings can aid healthcare practitioners in proactively predicting and monitoring severe outcomes or mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, improving treatment and resource allocation.
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BACKGROUND: Early recognition and prevention of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) have played an increasingly important role in the chain of survival. However, clinical tools for predicting IHCA are scarce, particularly in the emergency department (ED). We sought to estimate the incidence of ED-based IHCA and to develop and validate a novel triage tool, the Emergency Department In-hospital Cardiac Arrest Score (EDICAS), for predicting ED-based IHCA. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center with approximately 100,000 ED visits per year. We extracted data from 733,398 ED visits over a seven-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and excluded out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or children. Patient demographics and computerized triage information were included as potential predictors. RESULTS: A total of 325,502 adult ED patients were included. Of these patients, 623 (0.2%) developed ED-based IHCA. The EDICAS, which includes age and arrival mode and categorizes vital signs with simple cut-offs, showed excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] curve, 0.87) and maintained its discriminatory ability (AUROC, 0.86) in cross-validation. Previously developed early warning scores showed lower AUROC (0.77 for the Modified Early Warning Score and 0.83 for the National Early Warning Score) when applied to our ED population. CONCLUSION: In-hospital cardiac arrest in the ED is relatively uncommon. We developed and internally validated a novel tool for predicting imminent IHCA in the ED. Future studies are warranted to determine whether this tool could gain lead time to identify high-risk patients and potentially reduce ED-based IHCA.
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Parada Cardíaca , Triagem , Adulto , Área Sob a Curva , Criança , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Parada Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Parada Cardíaca/etiologia , Humanos , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) during cardiopulmonary resuscitation in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and to investigate the association between EtCO2 trajectories and OHCA outcomes. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a prospectively collected database on adult patients with OHCA who had been resuscitated in the emergency department of a tertiary medical center between 2015 and 2020. The primary outcome was the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify the EtCO2 trajectories. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between EtCO2 trajectories and ROSC. The predictive performance of the EtCO2 trajectories was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The study comprised 655 patients with OHCA. In the primary analysis, three distinct EtCO2 trajectories, including 10-mmHg, 30-mmHg, and 50-mmHg trajectories, were identified. Compared with the 10-mmHg trajectory, both 30-mmHg (odds ratio [OR]: 4.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.15-6.90) and 50-mmHg (OR: 7.58, 95% CI: 4.30-13.35) trajectories were associated with a higher likelihood of ROSC. In a sensitivity analysis of excluding EtCO2 measured before tracheal intubation or after sodium bicarbonate administration, the predictive ability of the identified EtCO2 trajectories remained. As a single predictor of ROSC, EtCO2 trajectories had an acceptable discriminative performance (AUC: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.66-0.73). CONCLUSION: Three distinct EtCO2 trajectories during cardiopulmonary resuscitation were identified and significantly associated with outcomes. Early identification of these EtCO2 trajectories could potentially guide the ongoing resuscitation efforts.
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Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Adulto , Dióxido de Carbono , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Prognóstico , Retorno da Circulação Espontânea , Volume de Ventilação PulmonarRESUMO
Objectives: Early recognition and prevention of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) play an increasingly important role in the Chain of Survival. However, clinical tools for predicting IHCA in the emergency department (ED) are scanty. We sought to evaluate the role of serum lactate in predicting ED-based IHCA. Methods: Data were retrieved from 733,398 ED visits over a 7-year period in a tertiary medical centre. We selected one ED visit per person and excluded out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, children, or those without lactate measurements. Patient demographics, computerised triage information, and serum lactate levels were extracted. The initial serum lactate levels were grouped into normal (≤2 mmol/L), moderately elevated (2 < lactate ≤ 4), and highly elevated (>4 mmol/L) categories. The primary outcome was ED-based IHCA. Results: A total of 17,392 adult patients were included. Of them, 342 (2%) developed IHCA. About 50% of the lactate levels were normal, 30% were moderately elevated, and 20% were highly elevated. In multivariable analysis, the group with highly elevated lactate had an 18-fold increased risk of IHCA (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 18.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.5-28.2), compared with the normal lactate group. In subgroup analysis, the poor lactate-clearance group (<2.5%/h) was associated with a 7.5-fold higher risk of IHCA (adjusted OR, 7.5; 95%CI, 3.7-15.1) compared with the normal clearance group. Conclusions: Elevated lactate levels and poor lactate clearance were strongly associated with a higher risk of ED-based IHCA. Clinicians may consider a more liberal sampling of lactate in patients at higher risk of IHCA with follow-up of abnormal levels.