Risk factors for recurrent venous thromboembolism after unprovoked pulmonary embolism: the PADIS-PE randomised trial.

We aimed to identify risk factors for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) after unprovoked pulmonary embolism.Analyses were based on the double-blind randomised PADIS-PE trial, which included 371 patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism initially treated during 6 months who were randomised to receive an additional 18 months of warfarin or placebo and followed up for 2 years after study treatment discontinuation. All patients had ventilation/perfusion lung scan at inclusion (i.e. at 6 months of anticoagulation).During a median follow-up of 41 months, recurrent VTE occurred in 67 out of 371 patients (6.8 events per 100 person-years). In main multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio for recurrence was 3.65 (95% CI 1.33-9.99) for age 50-65 years, 4.70 (95% CI 1.78-12.40) for age >65 years, 2.06 (95% CI 1.14-3.72) for patients with pulmonary vascular obstruction index (PVOI) ≥5% at 6 months and 2.38 (95% CI 1.15-4.89) for patients with antiphospholipid antibodies. When considering that PVOI at 6 months would not be available in practice, PVOI ≥40% at pulmonary embolism diagnosis (present in 40% of patients) was also associated with a 2-fold increased risk of recurrence.After a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, age, PVOI at pulmonary embolism diagnosis or after 6 months of anticoagulation and antiphospholipid antibodies were found to be independent predictors for recurrence.

Frequency and predictors for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension after a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism: Results from PADIS studies.

BACKGROUND: Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is a life-threatening complication of a pulmonary embolism (PE) whose incidence and predictors are not precisely determined. OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and predictors for CTEPH after a first unprovoked PE. PATIENTS/METHODS: In a randomized trial comparing an additional 18-month warfarin versus placebo in patients after a first unprovoked PE initially treated with vitamin K antagonist for 6 months, we applied recommended CTEPH screening strategies through an 8-year follow-up to determine cumulative incidence of CTEPH. CTEPH predictors were estimated using Cox models. Pulmonary vascular obstruction (PVO) and systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (sPAP) at PE diagnosis and 6 months were studied by receiver operating curves analysis. All CTEPH cases and whether they were incident or prevalent were adjudicated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, nine CTEPH cases were diagnosed among 371 patients, with a cumulative incidence of 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-4.64), and of 1.31% (95% CI 0.01-2.60) after exclusion of five cases adjudicated as prevalent. At PE diagnosis, PVO > 45% and sPAP > 56 mmHg were associated with CTEPH with a hazard ratio (HR) of 33.00 (95% CI 1.64-667.00, p = .02) and 12.50 (95% CI 2.10-74.80, p < .01), respectively. Age > 65 years, lupus anticoagulant antibodies and non-O blood groups were also predictive of CTEPH. PVO > 14% and sPAP > 34 mmHg at 6 months were associated with CTEPH (HR 63.90 [95% CI 3.11-1310.00, p < .01]and HR 17.2 [95% CI 2.75-108, p < .01]). CONCLUSION: After a first unprovoked PE, CTEPH cumulative incidence was 2.8% during an 8-year follow-up. PVO and sPAP at PE diagnosis and at 6 months were the main predictors for CTEPH diagnosis.

Evaluation of Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence Scores in an Unprovoked Pulmonary Embolism Population: A Post-hoc Analysis of the PADIS-PE trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to validate the Men Continue and HERDOO2 (HERDOO2), D-dimer, age, sex, hormonal therapy (DASH), and updated Vienna recurrent venous thromboembolism prediction models in a population composed entirely of first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, and to analyze the impact of the addition of the pulmonary vascular obstruction index (PVOI) on score accuracy. METHODS: Analyses were based on the double-blind, randomized PADIS-PE trial, which included 371 unprovoked pulmonary embolism patients initially treated for 6 months, successively randomized to receive an additional 18 months of warfarin or placebo, and subsequently followed-up for 2 years. RESULTS: The HERDOO2, DASH, and updated Vienna scores displayed C-statistics of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54-0.68), 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.66), and 0.58 (95% CI 0.51-0.66), respectively. Only the HERDOO2 score identified low recurrence risk patients (<3%/year) after anticoagulation was stopped. When added to either of the prediction models, PVOI measured at pulmonary embolism diagnosis, after 6 months of anticoagulation, or both, improved scores' C-statistics between +0.06 and +0.11 points and consistently led to identifying at least 50% of patients who experienced recurrence but in whom the scores would have indicated against extended anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, the HERDOO2 score is able to identify patients with a low recurrence risk after treatment discontinuation. Addition of PVOI improves accuracy of all scores. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: NCT00740883.

Evaluation of the predictive value of the bleeding prediction score VTE-BLEED for recurrent venous thromboembolism.

INTRODUCTION: VTE-BLEED is a validated score for identification of patients at increased risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE). It is unknown whether VTE-BLEED high-risk patients also have an increased risk for recurrent VTE, which would limit the potential usefulness of the score. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled PADIS-PE trial that randomized patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism (PE) initially treated during 6 months to receive an additional 18-month of warfarin vs. placebo. The primary outcome of this analysis was recurrent VTE during 2-year follow-up after anticoagulant discontinuation, that is, after the initial 6-month treatment in the placebo arm and after 24 months of anticoagulation in the active treatment arm. This rate, adjusted for study treatment allocation, was compared between patients in the high- vs. low-risk VTE-BLEED group. RESULTS: In complete case analysis (n = 308; 82.4% of total population), 89 (28.9%) patients were classified as high risk; 44 VTE events occurred after anticoagulant discontinuation during 668 patient-years. The cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE was 16.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.0%-26.1%; 14 events) and 14.6% (95% CI, 10.4%-20.3%; 30 events) in the high-risk and low-risk VTE-BLEED groups, respectively, for an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% CI, 0.62-2.19). CONCLUSION: In this study, patients with unprovoked PE classified at high risk of major bleeding by VTE-BLEED did not have a higher incidence of recurrent VTE after cessation of anticoagulant therapy, supporting the potential yield of the score for making management decisions on the optimal duration of anticoagulant therapy.

Predictors for Residual Pulmonary Vascular Obstruction after Unprovoked Pulmonary Embolism: Implications for Clinical Practice-The PADIS-PE Trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify risk factors for residual pulmonary vascular obstruction after a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism (PE). METHODS: Analyses were based on data from the double-blind randomized "PADIS-PE" trial that included 371 patients with a first unprovoked PE initially treated during 6 uninterrupted months; all patients underwent baseline ventilation-perfusion lung scanning at inclusion (i.e., after 6 months of anticoagulation). Each patient's pulmonary vascular obstruction indexes (PVOIs) at PE diagnosis and at inclusion were centrally assessed. RESULTS: Among the 371 included patients, residual PVOI was available in 356 patients, and 150 (42.1%) patients had PVOI ≥ 5%. At multivariable analysis, age > 65 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.81, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.58-5.00), PVOI ≥ 25% at PE diagnosis (OR, 3.53, 95% CI, 1.94-6.41), elevated factor VIII (OR, 3.89, 95% CI, 1.41-10.8), and chronic respiratory disease (OR, 2.18, 95% CI, 1.11-4.26) were independent predictors for residual PVOI ≥ 5%. Patients with ≥ 1 of these factors represented 94.5% (123 patients) of all patients with residual PVOI ≥ 5%. CONCLUSION: Six months after a first unprovoked PE, age > 65 years, PVOI ≥ 25% at PE diagnosis, elevated factor VIII, or chronic respiratory disease were found to be independent predictors for residual pulmonary vascular obstruction. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: NCT00740883.