Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem.

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Length-weight relationships of 55 mesopelagic fishes from the eastern tropical North Atlantic: Across- and within-species variation (body shape, growth stanza, condition factor).

We present estimates of length-weight relationships (LWRs) of 55 mesopelagic fish species of 13 taxonomic families based on data collected in the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) in March/April 2015. Our data include novel records for 19 species, while for 25 species LWRs are based on the most robust sample sizes, and for 21 species they are based on the most representative size ranges available up to now. In 31 species, body lengths were within the maximum range of body lengths recorded in the area, with new records of maximum lengths for 13 species. Most values for b fell between 2.5 and 3.5 with a mean exponent b of 3.08 (median 3.12) and a mean a of 0.0172 (median 0.0113). Body shape as covariate ('elongated', 'fusiform' and 'short-deep') strongly determined the variation in log a as a function of parameter b. For the mesopelagic fish species investigated, the form factor a3.0 indicated a significant increase of median a3.0 from 'elongated' to 'fusiform' to 'short-deep' body shapes. Large variability existed in parameter b between species of the same taxonomic family. Isometric growth was indicated in only nine species, whereas a positive allometry was suggested in 22 species. Using segmented regression analysis, we investigated ontogenetic variation in LWRs in 30 species. Of these, 20 species showed a breakpoint in LWR, whereby nearly equal numbers exhibited an increase or a decrease in slope following the breakpoint. Seven out of nine species showed significant regional variation in the slope of the relationship of the relative condition factor Krel vs. body length between two or more regions of the ETNA [eastern and western part of the oxygen minimum zone (LO-E, LO-W), northern and central equatorial region (EQ-N, EQ-C)]. A conspicuous pattern was an increase in Krel with body size in the LO-E (in six out of eight species), whereas in the LO-W and the equatorial regions the majority of species showed a related decrease. These findings support the idea that growth patterns in mesopelagic fishes in tropical regions show species-specific ecological niche and life-history adaptations that are finely tuned to small-scale regional environmental conditions. Comparison of our data with those of other studies emphasises that, regarding the small adult sizes of many mesopelagic fish species, estimates of LWR parameters are strongly influenced by sampled size distributions.

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case.

Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.

Effect of fluid resuscitation on cerebral integrity: A prospective randomised porcine study of haemorrhagic shock.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of haemorrhagic shock is a challenging task. Colloids have been regarded as standard treatment, but their safety and benefit have been the subject of controversial debates. Negative effects, including renal failure and increased mortality, have resulted in restrictions on their administration. The cerebral effects of different infusion regimens are largely unknown. OBJECTIVES: The current study investigated the impact of gelatine-polysuccinate, hydroxyethyl starch (HES) and balanced electrolyte solution (BES) on cerebral integrity, focusing on cerebral inflammation, apoptosis and blood flow in pigs. DESIGN: Randomised experimental study. SETTING: University-affiliated large animal research unit. ANIMALS: Twenty-four juvenile pigs aged 8 to 12 weeks. INTERVENTION: Haemorrhagic shock was induced by controlled arterial blood withdrawal to achieve a combination of relevant blood loss (30 to 40 ml kg-1) and haemodynamic deterioration. After 30 min of shock, fluid resuscitation was started with either gelatine-polysuccinate, HES or BES. The animals were then monitored for 4 h. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cerebral perfusion and diffusion were measured via arterial-spin-labelling MRI. Peripheral tissue perfusion was evaluated via white light spectroscopy. Cortical and hippocampal samples were collected at the end of the experiment. The numbers of cerebral cell nuclei were counted and mRNA expression of markers for cerebral apoptosis [glucose transporter protein type 1 (SLC2A), lipocalin 2 (LCN-2), aquaporin-4 (AQP4)] and inflammation [IL-6, TNF-α, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)] were determined. RESULTS: The three fluid protocols all stabilised the macrocirculation. Fluid resuscitation significantly increased the cerebral perfusion. Gelatine-polysuccinate and HES initially led to a higher cardiac output but caused haemodilution. Cerebral cell counts (as cells µm-2) were lower after colloid administration in the cortex (gelatine-polysuccinate, 1.8 ±â€Š0.3; HES, 1.9 ±â€Š0.4; each P < 0.05 vs. BES, 2.3 ±â€Š0.2) and the hippocampus (gelatine-polysuccinate, 0.8 ±â€Š0.2; HES, 0.9 ±â€Š0.2; each P < 0.05 vs. BES, 1.1 ±â€Š0.1). After gelatine-polysuccinate, the hippocampal SLC2A and GFAP were lower. After gelatine-polysuccinate, the cortical LCN-2 and TNF-α expression levels were increased (each P < 0.05 vs. BES). CONCLUSION: In a porcine model, fluid resuscitation by colloids, particularly gelatine-polysuccinate, was associated with the occurrence of cerebral injury. ETHICAL APPROVAL NUMBER: 23 177-07/G 15-1-092; 01/2016.

The forgotten feeding ground: patterns in seasonal and depth-specific food intake of adult cod Gadus morhua in the western Baltic Sea.

This study presents the diet composition of western Baltic cod Gadus morhua based on 3150 stomachs sampled year-round between 2016 and 2017 using angling, gillnetting and bottom trawling, which enhanced the spatio-temporal coverage of cod habitats. Cod diet composition in shallow areas (<20 m depth) was dominated by benthic invertebrate species, mainly the common shore crab Carcinus maneas. Compared to historic diet data from the 1960s and 1980s (limited to depth >20 m), the contribution of herring Clupea harengus decreased and round goby Neogobius melanostomus occurred as a new prey species. Statistical modelling revealed significant relationships between diet composition, catch depth, fish length and season. Generalized additive modelling identified a negative relationship between catch depth and stomach content weight, suggesting reduced food intake in winter when cod use deeper areas for spawning and during peak summer when cod tend to avoid high water temperatures. The results of this study highlight the importance of shallow coastal areas as major feeding habitats of adult cod in the western Baltic Sea, which were previously unknown because samples were restricted to deeper trawlable areas. The results strongly suggest that historic stomach analyses overestimated the role of forage fish and underestimated the role of invertebrate prey. Eventually, this study shows the importance of a comprehensive habitat coverage for unbiased stomach sampling programmes to provide a more reliable estimation of top predator diet, a key information for food web analyses and multispecies models.

Interaction between top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs.

Climate change and resource exploitation have been shown to modify the importance of bottom-up and top-down forces in ecosystems. However, the resulting pattern of trophic control in complex food webs is an emergent property of the system and thus unintuitive. We develop a statistical nondeterministic model, capable of modeling complex patterns of trophic control for the heavily impacted North Sea ecosystem. The model is driven solely by fishing mortality and climatic variables and based on time-series data covering >40 y for six plankton and eight fish groups along with one bird group (>20 y). Simulations show the outstanding importance of top-down exploitation pressure for the dynamics of fish populations. Whereas fishing effects on predators indirectly altered plankton abundance, bottom-up climatic processes dominate plankton dynamics. Importantly, we show planktivorous fish to have a central role in the North Sea food web initiating complex cascading effects across and between trophic levels. Our linked model integrates bottom-up and top-down effects and is able to simulate complex long-term changes in ecosystem components under a combination of stressor scenarios. Our results suggest that in marine ecosystems, pathways for bottom-up and top-down forces are not necessarily mutually exclusive and together can lead to the emergence of complex patterns of control.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Cyclic PaO2 oscillations assessed in the renal microcirculation: correlation with tidal volume in a porcine model of lung lavage.

BACKGROUND: Oscillations of the arterial partial pressure of oxygen induced by varying shunt fractions occur during cyclic alveolar recruitment within the injured lung. Recently, these were proposed as a pathomechanism that may be relevant for remote organ injury following acute respiratory distress syndrome. This study examines the transmission of oxygen oscillations to the renal tissue and their tidal volume dependency. METHODS: Lung injury was induced by repetitive bronchoalveolar lavage in eight anaesthetized pigs. Cyclic alveolar recruitment was provoked by high tidal volume ventilation. Oscillations of the arterial partial pressure of oxygen were measured in real-time in the macrocirculation by multi-frequency phase fluorimetry and in the renal microcirculation by combined white-light spectrometry and laser-Doppler flowmetry during tidal volume down-titration. RESULTS: Significant respiratory-dependent oxygen oscillations were detected in the macrocirculation and transmitted to the renal microcirculation in a substantial extent. The amplitudes of these oscillations significantly correlate to the applied tidal volume and are minimized during down-titration. CONCLUSIONS: In a porcine model oscillations of the arterial partial pressure of oxygen are induced by cyclic alveolar recruitment and transmitted to the renal microcirculation in a tidal volume-dependent fashion. They might play a role in organ crosstalk and remote organ damage following lung injury.

Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures.

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks.

Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a "true sink" habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances.

Spatial structuring of Mediterranean fisheries landings in relation to their seasonal and long-term fluctuations.

The Western Mediterranean fisheries significantly contribute to the regional blue economy, despite evidence of ongoing, widespread overexploitation of stocks. Understanding the spatial distribution and population dynamics of species is crucial for comprehending fisheries dynamics combining local and regional scales, although the underlying processes are often neglected. In this study, we aimed to (i) evaluate the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations of crustacean, cephalopod, and fish populations in the Western Mediterranean, (ii) determine whether these fluctuations are driven by the spatial structure of the fisheries or synchronic species fluctuations, and (iii) compare groupings according to the individual species and life history-based groups. We used dynamic factor analysis to detect underlying patterns in a Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) time series (2009-2020) for 23 commercially important species and 33 ports in the Western Mediterranean. To verify the spatial structure of ports and species groupings we investigated the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations and common LPUE trends that exhibit non-homogeneous and species-specific trends, highlighting the importance of life history, environmental and demographic preferences. Long-term trends revealed spatial segregation with a north-south gradient, demonstrating complex population structures of Western Mediterranean resources. Seasonal patterns exhibited a varying spatial aggregation based on species-port combinations. These findings can inform the Common Fishery Policy on gaps challenging their regionalisation objectives in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight the need for a nuanced and flexible approach and a better understanding of sub-regional processes for effective management and conservation - a current challenge for global fisheries. Our LPUE approach provides insight into population dynamics and changes in regional fisheries, relevant beyond the Mediterranean Sea.

Network-based integration of omics, physiological and environmental data in real-world Elbe estuarine Zander.

Coastal and estuarine environments are under endogenic and exogenic pressures jeopardizing survival and diversity of inhabiting biota. Information of possible synergistic effects of multiple (a)biotic stressors and holobiont interaction are largely missing in estuaries like the Elbe but are of importance to estimate unforeseen effects on animals' physiology. Here, we seek to leverage host-transcriptional RNA-seq and gill mucus microbial 16S rRNA metabarcoding data coupled with physiological and abiotic measurements in a network analysis approach to decipher the impact of multiple stressors on the health of juvenile Sander lucioperca along one of the largest European estuaries. We find mesohaline areas characterized by gill tissue specific transcriptional responses matching osmosensing and tissue remodeling. Liver transcriptomes instead emphasized that zander from highly turbid areas were undergoing starvation which was supported by compromised body condition. Potential pathogenic bacteria, including Shewanella, Acinetobacter, Aeromonas and Chryseobacterium, dominated the gill microbiome along the freshwater transition and oxygen minimum zone. Their occurrence coincided with a strong adaptive and innate transcriptional immune response in host gill and enhanced energy demand in liver tissue supporting their potential pathogenicity. Taken together, we show physiological responses of a fish species and its microbiome to abiotic factors whose impact is expected to increase with consequences of climate change. We further present a method for the close-meshed detection of the main stressors and bacterial species with disease potential in a highly productive ecosystem.

Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Regime shift dynamics, tipping points and the success of fisheries management.

Recovery of depleted fish stocks is an important goal for fisheries management and crucial to sustain important ecosystem functions as well as global food security. Successful recovery requires adjusting fishing mortality to stock productivity but can be prevented or inhibited by additional anthropogenic impacts such as climate change. Despite management measures to recover fish stocks being in place in legislations such as the European Union´s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), recovery can be hindered by the occurrence of regime shift dynamics. Such non-linear discontinuous dynamics imply tipping points and bear the characteristics of abrupt change, hysteresis and non-stationary functional relationships. We here used the recent reform of the CFP as a natural experiment to investigate the existence of regime shift dynamics and its potential effects on the recovery potential on six strongly fished or even depleted commercial fish stocks in the North Sea. Using a set of statistical approaches we show that regime shift dynamics exist in all six fish stocks as a response to changes in fishing pressure and temperature. Our results furthermore demonstrate the context-dependence of such dynamics and hence the ability of management measures to rebuild depleted fish stocks, leading to either failed recovery or positive tipping.

Tracing growth patterns in cod (Gadus morhua L.) using bioenergetic modelling.

Understanding individual growth in commercially exploited fish populations is key to successful stock assessment and informed ecosystem-based fisheries management. Traditionally, growth rates in marine fish are estimated using otolith age-readings in combination with age-length relationships from field samples, or tag-recapture field experiments. However, for some species, otolith-based approaches have been proven unreliable and tag-recapture experiments suffer from high working effort and costs as well as low recapture rates. An important alternative approach for estimating fish growth is represented by bioenergetic modelling which in addition to pure growth estimation can provide valuable insights into the processes leading to temporal growth changes resulting from environmental and related behavioural changes. We here developed an individual-based bioenergetic model for Western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), traditionally a commercially important fish species that however collapsed recently and likely suffers from climate change effects. Western Baltic cod is an ideal case study for bioenergetic modelling because of recently gained in-situ process knowledge on spatial distribution and feeding behaviour based on highly resolved data on stomachs and fish distribution. Additionally, physiological processes such as gastric evacuation, consumption, net-conversion efficiency and metabolic rates have been well studied for cod in laboratory experiments. Our model reliably reproduced seasonal growth patterns observed in the field. Importantly, our bioenergetic modelling approach implementing depth-use patterns and food intake allowed us to explain the potentially detrimental effect summer heat periods have on the growth of Western Baltic cod that likely will increasingly occur in the future. Hence, our model simulations highlighted a potential mechanism on how warming due to climate change affects the growth of a key species that may apply for similar environments elsewhere.

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach.

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future.

Traits, landmarks and outlines: Three congruent sides of a tale on coral reef fish morphology.

Quantifying the morphology of organisms remains fundamental in ecology given the form-function relationship. Morphology is quantifiable in traits, landmarks, and outlines, and the choice of approach may influence ecological conclusions to an unknown extent. Here, we apply these three approaches to 111 individual coral reef fish of 40 species common in Micronesia. We investigate the major dimensions of morphological variability among individuals, families, and predefined feeding functional groups. We find that although the approaches are complementary, they coincide in capturing elongation as the main dimension of variability. Furthermore, the choice of approach led to different interpretations regarding the degree of morphological differentiation among taxonomic and feeding functional groups. We also use each morphology dataset to compute community-scale morphological diversity on Palauan reefs and investigate how the choice of dataset affects the detection of differences among sites and wave exposure levels. The exact ranking of sites from highest to lowest morphological diversity was sensitive to the approach used, but not the broad spatial pattern of morphological diversity. Conclusions regarding the effect of wave exposure on morphological diversity were robust to the approach used. Biodiversity hotspots (e.g., areas of exceptionally high diversity and/or endemism) are considered important conservation targets but their location may depend on the biodiversity metric used. In the same vein, our results caution against labelling particular sites as morphological diversity hotspots when metrics consider only a single aspect of morphology.

Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth.

Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of research and model projections about potential management alternatives and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate how this type of a model can act as an emulator and ensemble, integrating disciplines such as climatology, biogeochemistry, marine and fisheries ecology as well as economics. Further, Bayesian network models include and present the uncertainty related to the predictions, allowing evaluation of the uncertainties, precautionary management, and the explicit consideration of acceptable risk levels. The Baltic Sea example also shows that the two biogeochemical models frequently used in future projections give considerably different predictions. Further, inclusion of parameter uncertainty of the food web model increased uncertainty in the outcomes and reduced the predicted manageability of the system. The model allows simultaneous evaluation of environmental and economic goals, while illustrating the uncertainty of predictions, providing a more holistic view of the management problem.

Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management.

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.

Tipping point realized in cod fishery.

Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.