Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Ribavirin Does Not Enhance Hepatitis B Virus Nucleotide Antiviral Activity: A Pilot Study.

PURPOSE: There is a need for effective and affordable treatments that achieve hepatitis B virus (HBV) functional cure and prevent long-term complications. The use of immune-modulators combined with HBV antivirals is a promising therapeutic strategy to achieve these goals. Based on ribavirin (RBV) monotherapy data, we hypothesized that RBV could improve virological responses when used in combination with tenofovir.  Methods: In this randomized, open label, controlled pilot trial, we evaluated RBV (n=4) dosed for the initial 24 weeks of treatment versus no RBV (n=4) in tenofovir recipients dosed over 48 weeks.  Results: Although well tolerated and safe in combination with tenofovir, RBV demonstrated no beneficial effects on virologic, biochemical or immunological markers of chronic HBV infection over 48 weeks of serial evaluation.  Conclusions: Our data does not suggest a HBV-specific immunomodulatory effect or an impact of RBV on HBV virological and antigen suppression.

Noninvasive Diagnosis of Portal Hypertension in Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to explore the prevalence of portal hypertension in the most common etiologies of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and develop classification rules, based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM), that could be readily used to diagnose or exclude clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in clinical practice. METHODS: This is an international cohort study including patients with paired LSM/hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), LSM ≥10 kPa, and no previous decompensation. Portal hypertension was defined by an HVPG >5 mm Hg. A positive predictive value ≥90% was considered to validate LSM cutoffs for CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mm Hg), whereas a negative predictive value ≥90% ruled out CSPH. RESULTS: A total of 836 patients with hepatitis C (n = 358), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH, n = 248), alcohol use (n = 203), and hepatitis B (n = 27) were evaluated. Portal hypertension prevalence was >90% in all cACLD etiologies, except for patients with NASH (60.9%), being even lower in obese patients with NASH (53.3%); these lower prevalences of portal hypertension in patients with NASH were maintained across different strata of LSM values. LSM ≥25 kPa was the best cutoff to rule in CSPH in alcoholic liver disease, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, and nonobese patients with NASH, whereas in obese NASH patients, the positive predictive value was only 62.8%. A new model for patients with NASH (ANTICIPATE-NASH model) to predict CSPH considering body mass index, LSM, and platelet count was developed, and a nomogram was constructed. LSM ≤15 kPa plus platelets ≥150 × 10/L ruled out CSPH in most etiologies. DISCUSSION: Patients with cACLD of NASH etiology, especially obese patients with NASH, present lower prevalences of portal hypertension compared with other cACLD etiologies. LSM ≥25 kPa is sufficient to rule in CSPH in most etiologies, including nonobese patients with NASH, but not in obese patients with NASH.

Post-liver transplantation chronic kidney disease is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk and poor survival.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common following liver transplantation (LT). We aimed to investigate the frequency, risk factors, and impact of CKD on cardiovascular disease (CVD), graft, and patient survival. We analyzed 752 patients who received LT at the University of Alberta. Development of CKD was defined as eGFR <60 ml/min for greater than 3 months, intrinsic renal disease or presence of end-stage renal disease requiring renal replacement therapy. 240 patients were female (32%), and mean age at LT was 53 ± 11 years. CKD was diagnosed in 448 (60%) patients. On multivariable analysis, age (OR 1.3; P = 0.01), female sex (OR 3.3; P < 0.001), baseline eGFR (OR 0.83; P < 0.001), MELD (OR 1.03; P = 0.01), de novo metabolic syndrome (OR 2.3; P = 0.001), and acute kidney injury (OR 3.5; P < 0.001) were associated with CKD. A higher tacrolimus concentration to dose ratio was protective for CKD (OR 0.69; P < 0.001). CKD was associated with post-transplant CVD (26% vs. 16% P < 0.001), reduced graft (HR 1.4; P = 0.02), and patient survival (HR 1.3; P = 0.03). CKD is a frequent complication following LT and is associated with an increased risk of CVD and reduced graft and patient survival.

Selective Internal Radiation Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Across the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stages.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common lethal cancer, and there is a need for effective therapies. Selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) has been increasingly used, but is not supported by guidelines due to a lack of solid evidence. AIMS: Determine the efficacy and safety of SIRT in HCC across the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages A, B, and C. METHODS: Consecutive patients that received SIRT between 2006 and 2016 at two centers in Canada were evaluated. RESULTS: We analyzed 132 patients, 12 (9%), 62 (47%), and 58 (44%) belonged to BCLC stages A, B, and C; mean age was 61.2 (SD ± 9.2), and 89% were male. Median survival was 12.4 months (95% CI 9.6-16.6), and it was different across the stages: 59.7 (95% CI NA), 12.8 (95% CI 10.2-17.5), and 9.3 months (95% CI 5.9-11.8) in BCLC A, B, and C, respectively (p = 0.009). Independent factors associated with survival were previous HCC treatment (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.23-3.27, p = 0.005), bi-lobar disease (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.30-3.89, p = 0.003), ascites (HR 1.77, 95% CI 0.99-3.13, p = 0.05), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20, p = 0.01), Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade-3 (HR 2.69, 95% CI 1.22-5.92, p = 0.01), tumor thrombus (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.65-5.24, p < 0.001), and disease control rate (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.96, p = 0.03). Forty-four (33%) patients developed severe adverse events, and ALBI-3 was associated with higher risk of these events. CONCLUSIONS: SIRT has the potential to be used across the BCLC stages in cases with preserved liver function. When using it as a rescue treatment, one should consider variables reflecting liver function, HCC extension, and systemic inflammation, which are associated with mortality.

Predicting Hepatic Encephalopathy-Related Hospitalizations Using a Composite Assessment of Cognitive Impairment and Frailty in 355 Patients With Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is the most common potentially modifiable reason for admission in patients with cirrhosis. Cognitive and physical components of frailty have pathophysiologic rationale as risk factors for HE. We aimed to assess the utility of a composite score (MoCA-CFS) developed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) for predicting HE admissions within 6 months. METHODS: Consecutive adult patients with cirrhosis were followed for 6 months or until death/transplant. Patients with overt HE and dementia were excluded. Primary outcome was the prediction of HE-related admissions at 6 months. RESULTS: A total of 355 patients were included; mean age 55.9 ± 9.6; 62.5% male; Hepatitis C and alcohol etiology in 64%. Thirty-six percent of patients had cognitive impairment according to the MoCA (≤24) and 14% were frail on the CFS (>4). The MoCA-CFS independently predicted HE hospitalization within 6 months, a MoCA-CFS score of 1 and 2 respectively increasing the odds of hospitalization by 3.3 (95% CI:1.5-7.7) and 5.7 (95% CI:1.9-17.3). HRQoL decreased with increasing MoCA-CFS. Depression and older age were independent predictors of a low MoCA. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive and physical frailty are common in patients with cirrhosis. In addition to being an independent predictor of HE admissions within 6 months, the MoCA-CFS composite score predicts impaired HRQoL and all-cause admissions within 6 months. These data support the predictive value of a "multidimensional" frailty tool for the prediction of adverse clinical outcomes and highlight the potential for a multi-faceted approach to therapy targeting cognitive impairment, physical frailty and depression.

Association between Low Testosterone Levels and Sarcopenia in Cirrhosis: A Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Sarcopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in cirrhosis. Hypogonadism is common in cirrhosis and has been associated with sarcopenia in non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease populations. The aim of this study is to investigate if sarcopenia is associated with low testosterone levels in patients with cirrhosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of 211 cirrhotic patients undergoing evaluation for liver transplantation. Sarcopenia was defined by computed tomography (CT) scan using specific cutoffs of the 3rd lumbar vertebra skeletal muscle index (L3 SMI). Morning testosterone levels were obtained in all patients. RESULTS: Of the 211 patients, sarcopenia was noted in 94 (45%). Testosterone levels were lower in sarcopenic patients (10.7 ± 1.1 vs. 13.7 ± 1.4 nmol/L, p = 0.03) and hypotestosteronemia was more frequent in them too (34 vs. 16%, p = 0.004). In males, those with sarcopenia had lower testosterone levels (14.6 ± 1.4 vs. 21.9 ± 1.8, p = 0.002), and the corresponding frequency of hypotestosteronemia (42 vs. 19%, p = 0.006) was also higher. There were no significant differences in female patients. There was a weak correlation between L3 SMI and testosterone levels (r 0.37, p < 0.001). On multivariable regression analysis including sex, body mass index (BMI), hypotestosteronemia, MELD and etiology of cirrhosis, only hypotestosteronemia (RR 2.76, p = 0.005) and BMI (RR 0.88, p < 0.001) were independently associated with sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: Low testosterone levels are associated with sarcopenia in male cirrhotic patients. The potential therapeutic effect of testosterone to reverse sarcopenia in these patients warrants evaluation in future trials.

A Model to Identify Sarcopenia in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The severe depletion of muscle mass at the third lumbar vertebral level (sarcopenia) is a marker of malnutrition and is independently associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Instead of monitoring sarcopenia by cross-sectional imaging, we investigated whether ultrasound-based measurements of peripheral muscle mass, measures of muscle function, along with nutritional factors, are associated with severe loss of muscle mass. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 159 outpatients with cirrhosis (56% male; mean age, 58 ± 10 years; mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 10 ± 3; 60% Child-Pugh class A) evaluated at the Cirrhosis Care Clinic at the University of Alberta Hospital from March 2011 through September 2012. Lumbar skeletal muscle indices were determined by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. We collected clinical data and data on patients' body composition, nutrition, and thigh muscle thickness (using ultrasound analysis). We also measured mid-arm muscle circumference, mid-arm circumference, hand grip, body mass index, and serum level of albumin; patients were evaluated using the subjective global assessment scale. Findings from these analyses were compared with those from cross-sectional imaging, for each sex, using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Based on cross-sectional imaging analysis, 43% of patients had sarcopenia (57% of men and 25% of women). Results from the subjective global assessment, serum level of albumin, and most nutritional factors were significantly associated with sarcopenia. We used multivariate analysis to develop a model to identify patients with sarcopenia, and developed a nomogram based on body mass index and thigh muscle thickness for patients of each sex. Our model identified men with sarcopenia with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.78 and women with sarcopenia with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.89. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective study of patients with cirrhosis, we found that the combination of body mass index and thigh muscle thickness (measured by ultrasound) can identify male and female patients with sarcopenia almost as well as cross-sectional imaging (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.78 and 0.89, respectively). These factors might be used in screening and routine nutritional monitoring of patients with cirrhosis.

A Rapid Bedside Screen to Predict Unplanned Hospitalization and Death in Outpatients With Cirrhosis: A Prospective Evaluation of the Clinical Frailty Scale.

OBJECTIVES: Screening tools to determine which outpatients with cirrhosis are at highest risk for unplanned hospitalization are lacking. Frailty is a novel prognostic factor but conventional screening for frailty is time consuming. We evaluated the ability of a 1 min bedside screen (Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS)) to predict unplanned hospitalization or death in outpatients with cirrhosis and compared the CFS with two conventional frailty measures (Fried Frailty Criteria (FFC) and Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB)). METHODS: We prospectively enrolled consecutive outpatients from three tertiary care liver clinics. Frailty was defined by CFS >4. The primary outcome was the composite of unplanned hospitalization or death within 6 months of study entry. RESULTS: A total of 300 outpatients were enrolled (mean age 57 years, 35% female, 81% white, 66% hepatitis C or alcohol-related liver disease, mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score 12, 28% with ascites). Overall, 54 (18%) outpatients were frail and 91 (30%) patients had an unplanned hospitalization or death within 6 months. CFS >4 was independently associated with increased rates of unplanned hospitalization or death (57% frail vs. 24% not frail, adjusted odds ratio 3.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-7.5; P=0.0008) and there was a dose response (adjusted odds ratio 1.9 per 1-unit increase in CFS, 95% CI: 1.4-2.6; P<0.0001). Models including MELD, ascites, and CFS >4 had a greater discrimination (c-statistic=0.84) than models using FFC or SPPB. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is strongly and independently associated with an increased risk of unplanned hospitalization or death in outpatients with cirrhosis. The CFS is a rapid screen that could be easily adopted in liver clinics to identify those at highest risk of adverse events.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with severity of cirrhosis and negative impact after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hyperhomocysteinemia constitutes an independent risk factor for thrombosis and cellular injury promoted by oxidative stress. The clinical significance of hyperhomocysteinemia in cirrhosis and outcomes post-liver transplantation is poorly documented. In this study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in cirrhosis, evaluate its association with thrombosis and severity of liver disease, and its impact on survival after liver transplantation. METHODS: We analysed 450 patients with cirrhosis who received a liver transplant between 2001 and 2010. Data were recovered from medical charts and homocysteine serum levels were determined before liver transplantation in all patients. RESULTS: Median age was 53 years (range, 18-72 years) and 308 patients were males (68%). Cirrhosis aetiology was hepatitis C (37%), autoimmune liver disease (22%), alcohol (16%) and others (25%). The median homocysteine level was 11 µmol/L (range, 4-221 µmol/L) and 165 patients (37%) had hyperhomocysteinemia. The MELD (23 ± 10 vs. 20 ± 9 points, P < 0.001), and Child-Pugh (11 ± 2 vs. 9 ± 2 points, P < 0.001) scores were higher in patients with hyperhomocysteinemia. Episodes of thrombosis occurred in 91 patients (20%), but there was no significant difference in patients with or without hyperhomocysteinemia (19 vs. 21%, P = 0.6). Hyperhomocysteinemia was associated with reduced graft (105 ± 4 vs. 119 ± 2 months; P = 0.005), and patient survival (125 ± 33 vs. 131 ± 2 months; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Hyperhomocysteinemia is frequently present in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with severe liver disease and reduced graft and patient survival after liver transplantation. The negative impact hyperhomocysteinemia has on graft and patient survival is not related to thrombosis.

Risk of Bacterial Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Hemorrhage, Based on Child-Pugh Class, and Effects of Antibiotics.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antibiotics frequently are overused and are associated with serious adverse events in patients with cirrhosis. However, these drugs are recommended for all patients presenting with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH). We investigated whether patients should be stratified for antibiotic prophylaxis based on Child-Pugh scores, to estimate risks of bacterial infection, rebleeding, and mortality, and whether antibiotics have equal effects on patients of all Child-Pugh classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis using model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. METHODS: In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from 381 adult patients with cirrhosis and AVH (70% men; mean age, 56 y), admitted from 2000 through 2009 to 2 tertiary care hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. We excluded patients with bacterial infection on the day of AVH. The association between antibiotic prophylaxis and outcomes was adjusted by liver disease severity and by a propensity score. RESULTS: The patients included in the study had mean MELD scores of 16, and 54% received antibiotic prophylaxis. Overall, antibiotic therapy was associated with lower risks of infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.74) and mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-1.29). Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class A given antibiotics, only 2% developed infections and the mortality rate was 0.4%. Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class B given antibiotics, 6% developed infections, compared with 14% of patients who did not receive antibiotics; antibiotics did not affect mortality. Administration of antibiotics to patients categorized as Child-Pugh class C reduced infections and mortality by approximately 50%, compared with patients who did not receive antibiotics. MELD scores were not as useful as Child-Pugh class in identifying patients at risk for infection. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a retrospective analysis of patients with cirrhosis and AVH, those categorized as Child-Pugh class A had lower rates of bacterial infection and lower mortality rates in the absence of antibiotic prophylaxis than patients categorized as classes B or C. The recommendation for routine antibiotic prophylaxis for this subgroup requires further evaluation.

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

Eight weeks of exercise training increases aerobic capacity and muscle mass and reduces fatigue in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis have reduced exercise tolerance, measured objectively as decreased peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO2). Reduced peak VO2 is associated with decreased survival time. The effect of aerobic exercise training on peak VO2 has not been well studied in patients with cirrhosis. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of 8 weeks of supervised exercise on peak VO2, quadriceps muscle thickness, and quality of life. METHODS: In a prospective pilot study, stable patients (79% male, 57.6 ± 6.7 years old) with Child-Pugh class A or B cirrhosis (mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, 10 ± 2.2) were randomly assigned to groups that received exercise training (n = 9) or usual care (controls, n = 10) at the University of Alberta Hospital in Canada from February through June 2013. Supervised exercise was performed on a cycle ergometer 3 days/week for 8 weeks at 60%-80% of baseline peak VO2. Peak VO2, quadriceps muscle thickness (measured by ultrasound), thigh circumference, answers from Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaires, EQ-visual analogue scales, 6-minute walk distance, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were evaluated at baseline and at week 8. Analysis of covariance was used to compare variables. RESULTS: At week 8, peak VO2 was 5.3 mL/kg/min higher in the exercise group compared with controls (95% confidence interval, 2.9-7.8; P = .001). Thigh circumference (P = .001), thigh muscle thickness (P = .01), and EQ-visual analogue scale determined self-perceived health status (P = .01) was also significantly higher in the exercise group compared with controls at week 8; fatigue subscores of the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaires were lower in the exercise group compared with controls (P = .01). No adverse events occurred during cardiopulmonary exercise testing or training. CONCLUSIONS: In a controlled prospective pilot trial, 8 weeks of supervised aerobic exercise training increased peak VO2 and muscle mass and reduced fatigue in patients with cirrhosis. No relevant adverse effects were observed. Larger trials are needed to evaluate the effects of exercise in patients with cirrhosis. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01799785.

Severe muscle depletion predicts postoperative length of stay but is not associated with survival after liver transplantation.

Muscle depletion or sarcopenia is associated with increased mortality in patients with cirrhosis; how it affects mortality after liver transplantation requires further study. In this study, we aimed to establish whether sarcopenia predicts increased morbidity or mortality after liver transplantation. We analyzed 248 patients with cirrhosis who had a computed tomography (CT) scan including the third lumbar vertebra before liver transplantation. Data were recovered from medical charts, the skeletal muscle cross-sectional area was measured with CT, and sarcopenia was defined with previously published sex- and body mass index-specific cutoffs. One hundred sixty-nine patients (68%) were male, and the mean age at transplantation was 55 ± 1 years. The etiologies of cirrhosis were hepatitis C virus (51%), alcohol (19%), autoimmune liver diseases (15%), hepatitis B virus (8%), and other etiologies (7%). Sarcopenia was present in 112 patients (45%), and it was more frequent in males (P = 0.002), patients with ascites (P = 0.02), and patients with higher bilirubin levels (P = 0.05), creatinine levels (P = 0.02), international normalized ratios (P = 0.04), Child-Pugh scores (P = 0.002), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores (P = 0.002). The median survival period after liver transplantation was 117 ± 17 months for sarcopenic patients and 146 ± 20 months for nonsarcopenic patients (P = 0.4). Sarcopenic patients had longer hospital stays (40 ± 4 versus 25 ± 3 days; P = 0.005) and a higher frequency of bacterial infections within the first 90 days after liver transplantation (26% versus 15%, P = 0.04) in comparison with nonsarcopenic patients. In conclusion, sarcopenia is one of the most common complications in patients with cirrhosis and is predictive of longer hospital stays and a higher risk of perioperative bacterial infections after liver transplantation, but it is not associated with increased mortality.

PROPEL: a randomized trial of mericitabine plus peginterferon alpha-2a/ribavirin therapy in treatment-naïve HCV genotype 1/4 patients.

UNLABELLED: Mericitabine is a nucleoside analog polymerase inhibitor of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Treatment-naïve HCV genotype 1 or 4 patients were randomized to double-blind treatment with oral mericitabine at a dosage of 500 mg twice-daily (BID) for 12 weeks (A), 1,000 mg BID for 8 (B) or 12 weeks (C and D), or placebo BID for 12 weeks (E). All patients received pegylated interferon alpha-2a (Peg-IFNα-2a; 40 kD)/ribavirin (RBV) at standard doses for 24 or 48 weeks during and after mericitabine/placebo therapy. Patients in arms A-C who maintained a virologic response (VR) (HCV RNA <15 IU/mL) from weeks 4 to 22 stopped all treatment at week 24; all other patients (arms A-E) continued Peg-IFNα-2a/RBV to complete 48 weeks. The primary outcome was sustained VR (SVR) (HCV RNA <15 IU/mL after 24 weeks of untreated follow-up; SVR-24). VR rates were higher in arms A-D than in arm E at weeks 4 and 12 overall, in patients with and without cirrhosis and in patients with CC and non-CC IL28B genotypes. However, the overall SVR-24 rate in arms D (50.6%) and E (placebo, 51.2%) was similar and those in the response-guided therapy arms A, B, and C were lower (48.8%, 42.0%, and 32.9%, respectively). No viral breakthrough or mericitabine-resistance mutations (S282T) were observed during mericitabine therapy. CONCLUSION: Treatment with mericitabine plus Peg-IFNα-2a/RBV for 8 or 12 weeks provided potent suppression of HCV RNA, was well tolerated, and did not select resistant variants, but did not increase SVR rates, compared to placebo. IFN-free and IFN-containing trials of mericitabine of longer treatment duration are ongoing.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria is an independent predictor of urinary tract infections in an ambulatory cirrhotic population: a prospective evaluation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) is a risk factor for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in many patients without liver disease. It remains unclear whether a diagnosis of ASB in an outpatient with cirrhosis could be utilized to predict the subsequent development of a UTI. We undertook this study to determine the prevalence and incidence of ASB in an outpatient population and its association with UTI. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 108 adult outpatients with cirrhosis over a 6-month period. Monthly midstream urines (MSU) were performed to detect the occurrence of UTI and ASB (culture of ≥10(8) CFU/L of a urinary pathogen in the absence of UTI symptoms). RESULTS: Of 108 patients enrolled, 99 completed at least one MSU, for a total of 489 MSUs. Total follow-up was 44 person-years. The incidences of ASB and UTI were 181 and 250 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The prevalences of ASB and UTI on the first MSU were 5 and 1%, respectively. In total, 8% of patients developed an episode of ASB and 11% developed a UTI during the study period. Univariate predictors of UTI were female gender, primary biliary cirrhosis, number of previous UTIs and preceding ASB. Preceding ASB was the only independent predictor of UTI on multivariate analysis, with an odds ratio of 6.2 (1.1-34.3), P = 0.04. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhotic patients have higher rates of ASB and UTI than reported in the general population. ASB is an independent predictor of UTI. Further studies are necessary to determine whether routine screening and antimicrobial treatment of ASB is warranted.

Protease inhibitor-based triple therapy is highly effective for hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplant: a multicenter experience.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C (HCV) continues to be the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT). Sustained virological response (SVR) rates to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy for recurrent HCV in Genotype 1 (G1) LT recipients have been disappointing (30-40%). Experience with triple therapy using protease inhibitors (PI) boceprevir (BOC), telaprevir (TVR) in these patients has been limited. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This national multicenter retrospective study included 76 patients (64 male, mean age 57 ± 6 years), treated for G1 HCV recurrence with either BOC (n = 41) or TVR (n = 35), who were non-responders or relapsers (n = 54), treatment naïve (n = 22) or had fibrosing cholestatic HCV (n = 3). 53 patients were on cyclosporine, 22 on tacrolimus and one patient on prednisone alone. RESULTS: On treatment virologic response was observed in 84% (64/76), 83% in BOC and 85% in TVR group. A higher week 4 response after starting triple therapy (RVR) was noted in TVR group 25/35 (81%) as compared to BOC group 26/41 (63%); p value = 0.02. The end of treatment response was 78% and 75% in BOC and TVR group, respectively. SVR 12 weeks after treatment discontinuation was observed in 59.5% (22/37); 58.3% in the BOC group and 61.5% in TVR group. Treatment was discontinued early in 23 patients (serious adverse effects n = 19, treatment failure n = 4). Infections occurred in 5 patients with 2 deaths (all in BOC). Anemia was the most common side effect (n = 55, 72%) requiring erythropoietin and RBV dose reduction. In the BOC group, cyclosporine dose reduction was 2.2 ± 1.0 fold and 8.6 ± 2.4 fold with tacrolimus. In TVR group, dose reduction was 3.0 ± 1.4 with cyclosporine and 12 ± 5.7 fold with tacrolimus. CONCLUSIONS: PI-based triple therapy appears more effective in producing HCV-RNA clearance than dual therapy. Tolerability is a serious issue and drug-drug interactions are manageable with close monitoring.

The 22/11 risk prediction model: a validated model for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

OBJECTIVES: Clinicians do not have a validated tool for estimating the short-term mortality associated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Accurate prognosis assessment is important for risk stratification and for individualizing therapy. We aimed therefore to develop and validate a model for the prediction of 30-day mortality in SBP patients receiving standard medical treatment (antibiotics and if indicated by guidelines, intravenous albumin therapy). METHODS: We retrospectively identified SBP patients treated at a tertiary care center between 2003 and 2011 (training set). Multivariate regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized for statistical analysis. An external data set of 109 SBP patients was utilized for validation. RESULTS: Of the 184 patients in the training set, 66% were men with a median age of 55 years, a median MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score of 20, and a 30-day mortality of 27%. Peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×109 cells/l (odds ratio (OR) 2.5; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.2-5.2) and MELD score ≥22 (OR 4.6; 95% CI: 2.3-9.6) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Patients with neither, one, or both variables had 30-day mortality rates of 8%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. The findings in the validation set mirrored the training set. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhotic patients with SBP receiving standard therapy, MELD score ≥22 and peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×109 cells/l are validated independent predictors of mortality. The mortality in a patient without either poor prognostic variable is ≤10% and with both variables is ≥50%. Trials aiming to reduce mortality should target patients in the moderate-risk to high-risk groups.

VSL#3 ® probiotic therapy does not reduce portal pressures in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with decompensated cirrhosis, bacterial translocation can contribute to splanchnic vasodilatation, decreased effective circulating volume, and portal hypertension. The primary objective of this randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial was to evaluate the effect of the probiotic VSL#3(®) on the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). METHODS: Seventeen patients with decompensated cirrhosis and an HVPG of ≥ 10 mmHg were randomized to receive 2 months of VSL#3(®) or an identical placebo. HVPG, endotoxin, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, renin, aldosterone, nitric oxide and stool microbiota were measured at baseline and study end. RESULTS: Two of the 17 patients were taken off the trial before completion (one for alcohol abuse and the second for SBP - both in placebo arm). Data were analysed on the remaining 15 patients. The median model for end-stage liver disease score was 12, and 80% of patients had Child Pugh B disease. The treatment arm had a greater decrease in HVPG from baseline to study end than the placebo arm (median change from baseline -11.6% vs +2.8%), although this reduction was not statistically significant in either group. There was a significant reduction in the plasma aldosterone level in the VSL#3(®) group, but no significant changes in the other measured parameters, including the stool microflora analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of our sample size, VSL#3(®) therapy does not appear to have a significant impact on portal pressure reduction in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Severe muscle depletion in patients on the liver transplant wait list: its prevalence and independent prognostic value.

As detected by cross-sectional imaging, severe muscle depletion, which is termed sarcopenia, holds promise for prognostication in patients with cirrhosis. Our aims were to describe the prevalence and predictors of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis listed for liver transplantation (LT) and to determine its independent prognostic significance for the prediction of waiting-list mortality. Adults listed for LT who underwent abdominal computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging within 6 weeks of activation were retrospectively identified. The exclusions were hepatocellular carcinoma, acute liver failure, prior LT, and listing for multivisceral transplantation or living related LT. Sixty percent of the 142 eligible patients were male, the median age was 53 years, and the median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at listing was 15. Forty-one percent were sarcopenic; sarcopenia was more prevalent in males versus females (54% versus 21%, P < 0.001) and increased with the Child-Pugh class (10% for class A, 34% for class B, and 54% for class C, P = 0.007). Male sex, the dry-weight body mass index (BMI), and Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis (but not the MELD score) were independent predictors of sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 2.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.23-4.53) after adjustments for age and MELD scores. In conclusion, sarcopenia is associated with increased waiting-list mortality and is poorly predicted by subjective nutritional assessment tools such as BMI and subjective global assessment. If this is validated in larger studies, the objective assessment of sarcopenia holds promise for prognostication in this patient population.