Obesity as a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality in women and men in the UK biobank: Comparisons with influenza/pneumonia and coronary heart disease.

Obesity is associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, yet, it is unclear whether the risk of COVID-19 mortality associated with obesity is similar between the sexes. We used data from the UK Biobank to assess the risk of COVID-19 mortality associated with various anthropometric measures in women and men. To put these results in context, we also compared these estimates with those for mortality from influenza/pneumonia and coronary heart disease (CHD). The analyses included 502 493 individuals (54% women), of whom 410 (36% women) died from COVID-19, 549 (36% women) died from influenza/pneumonia and 3355 (19% women) died from CHD. A higher body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio were each associated with a greater risk of death from COVID-19, influenza/pneumonia and CHD in both sexes, with the exception of the association between higher BMI and the risk of influenza/pneumonia death in men. A higher BMI was associated with a stronger risk of COVID-19 mortality in women than men; the women-to-men ratio of hazard ratios was 1.20 (95% confidence interval 1.00; 1.43). This study demonstrates the role of obesity in COVID-19 mortality and shows that the relative effects of a higher BMI on COVID-19 mortality may be stronger in women than men.

Sex differences in risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia, including death as a competing risk, in individuals with diabetes: Results from the ADVANCE trial.

AIM: To estimate the associations between risk factors and cognitive decline (CD)/dementia, and the sex differences in these risk factors in individuals with type 2 diabetes, while accounting for the competing risk of death. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial of 11,140 individuals with type 2 diabetes was used to estimate the odds of CD/dementia using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: During a median 5-year follow-up, 1827 participants (43.2% women) had CD/dementia (1718 with CD only; 21 with dementia only; 88 with CD and dementia), and 929 (31.0% women) died without CD/dementia. Women had lower odds of CD/dementia than men (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval], 0.88 [0.77, 1.00]); older age, higher total cholesterol, HbA1c, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, moderately increased albumin-creatinine ratio, stroke/transient ischaemic attack and retinal disease were each associated with greater odds of CD/dementia; higher years at education completion, baseline cognitive function, taller stature and current alcohol use were inversely associated. Higher waist circumference (women-to-men ratio of ORs [ROR], 1.05 [1.00, 1.10] per 5 cm) and presence of anxiety/depression (ROR, 1.28 [1.01, 1.63]) were associated with greater ORs for CD/dementia in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk factors were associated with CD/dementia. Higher waist circumference and mental health symptoms were more strongly associated with CD/dementia in women than men. Further studies should examine the mechanisms that underlie these sex differences.

Elevated blood pressure and risk of aortic valve disease: a cohort analysis of 5.4 million UK adults.

Aims: To test two related hypotheses that elevated blood pressure (BP) is a risk factor for aortic valve stenosis (AS) or regurgitation (AR). Methods and results: In this cohort study of 5.4 million UK patients with no known cardiovascular disease or aortic valve disease at baseline, we investigated the relationship between BP and risk of incident AS and AR using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Over a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 20 680 patients (0.38%) were diagnosed with AS and 6440 (0.12%) patients with AR. Systolic BP (SBP) was continuously related to the risk of AS and AR with no evidence of a nadir down to 115 mmHg. Each 20 mmHg increment in SBP was associated with a 41% higher risk of AS (hazard ratio 1.41, 95% confidence interval 1.38-1.45) and a 38% higher risk of AR (1.38, 1.31-1.45). Associations were stronger in younger patients but with no strong evidence for interaction by gender or body mass index. Each 10 mmHg increment in diastolic BP was associated with a 24% higher risk of AS (1.24, 1.19-1.29) but not AR (1.04, 0.97-1.11). Each 15 mmHg increment in pulse pressure was associated with a 46% greater risk of AS (1.46, 1.42-1.50) and a 53% higher risk of AR (1.53, 1.45-1.62). Conclusion: Long-term exposure to elevated BP across its whole spectrum was associated with increased risk of AS and AR. The possible causal nature of the observed associations warrants further investigation.

Cardiovascular disease risk and comparison of different strategies for blood pressure management in rural India.

BACKGROUND: Non-optimal blood pressure (BP) levels are a major cause of disease burden globally. We describe current BP and treatment patterns in rural India and compare different approaches to BP lowering in this setting. METHODS: All individuals aged ≥40 years from 54 villages in a South Indian district were invited and 62,194 individuals (84%) participated in a cross-sectional study. Individual 10-year absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was estimated using WHO/ISH charts. Using known effects of treatment, proportions of events that would be averted under different paradigms of BP lowering therapy were estimated. RESULTS: After imputation of pre-treatment BP levels for participants on existing treatment, 76·9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7-78.0%), 5·3% (4.9-5.6%), and 17·8% (16.9-18.8%) of individuals had a 10-year CVD risk defined as low (< 20%), intermediate (20-29%), and high (≥30%, established CVD, or BP > 160/100 mmHg), respectively. Compared to the 19.6% (18.4-20.9%) of adults treated with current practice, a slightly higher or similar proportion would be treated using an intermediate (23·2% (22.0-24.3%)) or high (17·9% (16.9-18.8%) risk threshold for instituting BP lowering therapy and this would avert 87·2% (85.8-88.5%) and 62·7% (60.7-64.6%) more CVD events over ten years, respectively. These strategies were highly cost-effective relative to the current practice. CONCLUSION: In a rural Indian community, a substantial proportion of the population has elevated CVD risk. The more efficient and cost-effective clinical approach to BP lowering is to base treatment decisions on an estimate of an individual's short-term absolute CVD risk rather than with BP based strategy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2013/06/003753 , 14 June 2013.

Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Disease in the Rapidly Changing Economy of China.

With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved.

Elevated blood pressure and risk of mitral regurgitation: A longitudinal cohort study of 5.5 million United Kingdom adults.

BACKGROUND: Mitral regurgitation in people without prior cardiac disease is considered a degenerative disease with no established risk factors for its prevention. We aimed to test the hypothesis that elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) across its usual spectrum is associated with higher risk of mitral regurgitation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used linked electronic health records from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015. CPRD covers approximately 7% of the current UK population and is broadly representative of the population by age, sex, and ethnicity. About 5.5 million UK patients with no known cardiovascular or valve disease at baseline were included in this cohort study. We investigated the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and risk of mitral regurgitation using Cox regression models. Our primary exposure variable was SBP and our primary outcome was incident reports of mitral regurgitation, which were identified from hospital discharge reports or primary care records. Of the 5,553,984 patients in the CPRD that met our inclusion criteria, during the 10-year follow-up period, 28,655 (0.52%) were diagnosed with mitral regurgitation and a further 1,262 (0.02%) were diagnosed with mitral stenosis. SBP was continuously related to the risk of mitral regurgitation with no evidence of a nadir down to 115 mmHg (p < 0.001). Each 20 mmHg increment in SBP was associated with a 26% higher risk of mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26; CI 1.23, 1.29). The observed association was partially mediated by diseases affecting the left ventricle during follow-up (myocardial infarction [MI], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], cardiomyopathy, and heart failure). However, the percentage of excess risk mediated (PERM) by these proximate causes of secondary mitral regurgitation was only 13% (CI 6.1%, 20%), and accounting for them had little effect on the long-term association between SBP and mitral regurgitation (mediator-adjusted HR 1.22; CI 1.20, 1.25; p < 0.001). Associations were similar for each 10 mmHg increment in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (p < 0.001) or each 15 mmHg increment in pulse pressure (PP) (p < 0.001). By contrast, there was no association between SBP and risk of mitral stenosis (HR per 20 mmHg higher SBP 1.03; CI 0.93, 1.14; p = 0.58). These analyses are based on routinely collected data from health records which may be sensitive to measurement errors, and the observed associations may not be generalizable to less severe and subclinical cases of mitral regurgitation. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to elevated BP across its whole spectrum is associated with an increased risk of primary and secondary mitral regurgitation. These findings suggest that BP control may be of importance in the prevention of mitral regurgitation.

Effects of intensive blood pressure lowering on cardiovascular and renal outcomes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent hypertension guidelines have reversed previous recommendations for lower blood pressure targets in high-risk patients, such as those with cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or diabetes. This change represents uncertainty about whether more intensive blood pressure-lowering strategies are associated with greater reductions in risk of major cardiovascular and renal events. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of intensive blood pressure-lowering strategies. METHODS: For this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, we systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for trials published between Jan 1, 1950, and Nov 3, 2015. We included randomised controlled trials with at least 6 months' follow-up that randomly assigned participants to more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering treatment, with different blood pressure targets or different blood pressure changes from baseline. We did not use any age or language restrictions. We did a meta-analysis of blood pressure reductions on relative risk (RR) of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular death, separately and combined), and non-vascular and all-cause mortality, end-stage kidney disease, and adverse events, as well as albuminuria and progression of retinopathy in trials done in patients with diabetes. FINDINGS: We identified 19 trials including 44,989 participants, in whom 2496 major cardiovascular events were recorded during a mean 3·8 years of follow-up (range 1·0-8·4 years). Our meta-analysis showed that after randomisation, patients in the more intensive blood pressure-lowering treatment group had mean blood pressure levels of 133/76 mm Hg, compared with 140/81 mm Hg in the less intensive treatment group. Intensive blood pressure-lowering treatment achieved RR reductions for major cardiovascular events (14% [95% CI 4-22]), myocardial infarction (13% [0-24]), stroke (22% [10-32]), albuminuria (10% [3-16]), and retinopathy progression (19% [0-34]). However, more intensive treatment had no clear effects on heart failure (15% [95% CI -11 to 34]), cardiovascular death (9% [-11 to 26]), total mortality (9% [-3 to 19]), or end-stage kidney disease (10% [-6 to 23]). The reduction in major cardiovascular events was consistent across patient groups, and additional blood pressure lowering had a clear benefit even in patients with systolic blood pressure lower than 140 mm Hg. The absolute benefits were greatest in trials in which all enrolled patients had vascular disease, renal disease, or diabetes. Serious adverse events associated with blood pressure lowering were only reported by six trials and had an event rate of 1·2% per year in intensive blood pressure-lowering group participants, compared with 0·9% in the less intensive treatment group (RR 1·35 [95% CI 0·93-1·97]). Severe hypotension was more frequent in the more intensive treatment regimen (RR 2·68 [1·21-5·89], p=0·015), but the absolute excess was small (0·3% vs 0·1% per person-year for the duration of follow-up). INTERPRETATION: Intensive blood pressure lowering provided greater vascular protection than standard regimens. In high-risk patients, there are additional benefits from more intensive blood pressure lowering, including for those with systolic blood pressure below 140 mmHg. The net absolute benefits of intensive blood pressure lowering in high-risk individuals are large. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Interpretation of the evidence for the efficacy and safety of statin therapy.

This Review is intended to help clinicians, patients, and the public make informed decisions about statin therapy for the prevention of heart attacks and strokes. It explains how the evidence that is available from randomised controlled trials yields reliable information about both the efficacy and safety of statin therapy. In addition, it discusses how claims that statins commonly cause adverse effects reflect a failure to recognise the limitations of other sources of evidence about the effects of treatment. Large-scale evidence from randomised trials shows that statin therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events (ie, coronary deaths or myocardial infarctions, strokes, and coronary revascularisation procedures) by about one-quarter for each mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol during each year (after the first) that it continues to be taken. The absolute benefits of statin therapy depend on an individual's absolute risk of occlusive vascular events and the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol that is achieved. For example, lowering LDL cholesterol by 2 mmol/L (77 mg/dL) with an effective low-cost statin regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily, costing about £2 per month) for 5 years in 10 000 patients would typically prevent major vascular events from occurring in about 1000 patients (ie, 10% absolute benefit) with pre-existing occlusive vascular disease (secondary prevention) and in 500 patients (ie, 5% absolute benefit) who are at increased risk but have not yet had a vascular event (primary prevention). Statin therapy has been shown to reduce vascular disease risk during each year it continues to be taken, so larger absolute benefits would accrue with more prolonged therapy, and these benefits persist long term. The only serious adverse events that have been shown to be caused by long-term statin therapy-ie, adverse effects of the statin-are myopathy (defined as muscle pain or weakness combined with large increases in blood concentrations of creatine kinase), new-onset diabetes mellitus, and, probably, haemorrhagic stroke. Typically, treatment of 10 000 patients for 5 years with an effective regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily) would cause about 5 cases of myopathy (one of which might progress, if the statin therapy is not stopped, to the more severe condition of rhabdomyolysis), 50-100 new cases of diabetes, and 5-10 haemorrhagic strokes. However, any adverse impact of these side-effects on major vascular events has already been taken into account in the estimates of the absolute benefits. Statin therapy may cause symptomatic adverse events (eg, muscle pain or weakness) in up to about 50-100 patients (ie, 0·5-1·0% absolute harm) per 10 000 treated for 5 years. However, placebo-controlled randomised trials have shown definitively that almost all of the symptomatic adverse events that are attributed to statin therapy in routine practice are not actually caused by it (ie, they represent misattribution). The large-scale evidence available from randomised trials also indicates that it is unlikely that large absolute excesses in other serious adverse events still await discovery. Consequently, any further findings that emerge about the effects of statin therapy would not be expected to alter materially the balance of benefits and harms. It is, therefore, of concern that exaggerated claims about side-effect rates with statin therapy may be responsible for its under-use among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular events. For, whereas the rare cases of myopathy and any muscle-related symptoms that are attributed to statin therapy generally resolve rapidly when treatment is stopped, the heart attacks or strokes that may occur if statin therapy is stopped unnecessarily can be devastating.

Follow-up of blood-pressure lowering and glucose control in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: In the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) factorial trial, the combination of perindopril and indapamide reduced mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes, but intensive glucose control, targeting a glycated hemoglobin level of less than 6.5%, did not. We now report results of the 6-year post-trial follow-up. METHODS: We invited surviving participants, who had previously been assigned to perindopril-indapamide or placebo and to intensive or standard glucose control (with the glucose-control comparison extending for an additional 6 months), to participate in a post-trial follow-up evaluation. The primary end points were death from any cause and major macrovascular events. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics were similar among the 11,140 patients who originally underwent randomization and the 8494 patients who participated in the post-trial follow-up for a median of 5.9 years (blood-pressure-lowering comparison) or 5.4 years (glucose-control comparison). Between-group differences in blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin levels during the trial were no longer evident by the first post-trial visit. The reductions in the risk of death from any cause and of death from cardiovascular causes that had been observed in the group receiving active blood-pressure-lowering treatment during the trial were attenuated but significant at the end of the post-trial follow-up; the hazard ratios were 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 0.99; P=0.03) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.99; P=0.04), respectively. No differences were observed during follow-up in the risk of death from any cause or major macrovascular events between the intensive-glucose-control group and the standard-glucose-control group; the hazard ratios were 1.00 (95% CI, 0.92 to 1.08) and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.92 to 1.08), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits with respect to mortality that had been observed among patients originally assigned to blood-pressure-lowering therapy were attenuated but still evident at the end of follow-up. There was no evidence that intensive glucose control during the trial led to long-term benefits with respect to mortality or macrovascular events. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and others; ADVANCE-ON ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00949286.).

The epidemiology of blood pressure and its worldwide management.

Despite the vast amount of evidence on the benefits of blood pressure lowering accumulated to date, elevated blood pressure is still the leading risk factor for disease and disability worldwide. The purpose of this review is to summarize the epidemiological evidence underpinning the association between blood pressure and a range of conditions. This review focuses on the association between systolic and diastolic blood pressures and the risk of cardiovascular and renal disease. Evidence for and against the existence of a J-shaped curve association between blood pressure and cardiovascular risk, and differences in the predictive power of systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure, are described. In addition, global and regional trends in blood pressure levels and management of hypertension are reviewed.

Major surgery in south India: a retrospective audit of hospital claim data from a large community health insurance programme.

BACKGROUND: Information about use of major surgery in India is scarce. This study aims to bridge this gap by auditing hospital claims from the Rajiv Aarogyasri Community Health Insurance Scheme (RACHIS) that provides access to free tertiary care for major surgery through state-funded insurance to 68 million beneficiaries with limited household incomes-81% of population in states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh (combined Human Development Index 0·485). Beneficiary households receive an annual coverage of INR 200 000 (US$3333) for admissions to any empanelled public or private hospital. METHODS: Publicly available deidentified hospital claim data for all surgical procedures conducted between mid-2008 and mid-2012 were compiled across all 23 districts in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. FINDINGS: 677 332 surgical admissions (80% at private hospitals) were recorded at a mean annual rate of 259 per 100 000 beneficiaries (95% CI 235-283), excluding cataract and caesarean sections as these were not covered under the insurance programme. Men accounted for 56% of admissions. Injury was the most common cause for surgical admission (185 733; 27%) with surgical correction of long bone fractures being the most common procedure (144 997; 20%) identified in the audit. Diseases of digestive (110 922; 16%), genitourinary (82 505; 12%), and musculoskeletal system (70 053; 10%) were other leading causes for surgical admissions. Most hospital bed-days were used for injuries (584 days per 100 000 person years; 31%), digestive diseases (314 days; 17%), and musculoskeletal system (207 days; 11%), costing 19% (INR 4·4 billion), 13% (3·03 billion), and 11% (2·5 billion) of claims, respectively. Cardiovascular surgeries (53 023; 8%) alone accounted for 21% (INR 4·9 billion) of cost. Annual per capita cost of surgical claims was US$1·49 (95% CI 1·32-1·65). INTERPRETATION: Our findings are limited to a population socioeconomically representative of India and other countries with low-income and middle-income. Despite near universal access for major surgery, use continues to remain low, at levels expected in countries with per capita health expenditure below US$100, and lower than a tenth of rates estimated at spending (US$400-1000) comparable with financial access provided. Hence, strategies beyond traditional financing for care are required to improve use of surgery in LMICs. FUNDING: The George Institute for Global Health.

Effects of visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure on macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the ADVANCE trial.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and maximum SBP are predictors of cardiovascular disease. However, it remains uncertain whether these parameters predict the risks of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) was a factorial randomized controlled trial of blood pressure lowering and blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The present analysis included 8811 patients without major macrovascular and microvascular events or death during the first 24 months after randomization. SBP variability (defined as standard deviation) and maximum SBP were determined during the first 24 months after randomization. During a median 2.4 years of follow-up from the 24-month visit, 407 major macrovascular (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) and 476 microvascular (new or worsening nephropathy or retinopathy) events were observed. The association of major macrovascular and microvascular events with SBP variability was continuous even after adjustment for mean SBP and other confounding factors (both P<0.05 for trend). Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest tenth of SBP variability were 1.54 (0.99-2.39) for macrovascular events and 1.84 (1.19-2.84) for microvascular events in comparison with the lowest tenth. For maximum SBP, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest tenth were 3.64 (1.73-7.66) and 2.18 (1.04-4.58), respectively. CONCLUSION: Visit-to-visit variability in SBP and maximum SBP were independent risk factors for macrovascular and microvascular complications in type 2 diabetes mellitus. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Heart failure care in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure places a significant burden on patients and health systems in high-income countries. However, information about its burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is scant. We thus set out to review both published and unpublished information on the presentation, causes, management, and outcomes of heart failure in LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline, Embase, Global Health Database, and World Health Organization regional databases were searched for studies from LMICs published between 1 January 1995 and 30 March 2014. Additional unpublished data were requested from investigators and international heart failure experts. We identified 42 studies that provided relevant information on acute hospital care (25 LMICs; 232,550 patients) and 11 studies on the management of chronic heart failure in primary care or outpatient settings (14 LMICs; 5,358 patients). The mean age of patients studied ranged from 42 y in Cameroon and Ghana to 75 y in Argentina, and mean age in studies largely correlated with the human development index of the country in which they were conducted (r = 0.71, p<0.001). Overall, ischaemic heart disease was the main reported cause of heart failure in all regions except Africa and the Americas, where hypertension was predominant. Taking both those managed acutely in hospital and those in non-acute outpatient or community settings together, 57% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49%-64%) of patients were treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, 34% (95% CI: 28%-41%) with beta-blockers, and 32% (95% CI: 25%-39%) with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. Mean inpatient stay was 10 d, ranging from 3 d in India to 23 d in China. Acute heart failure accounted for 2.2% (range: 0.3%-7.7%) of total hospital admissions, and mean in-hospital mortality was 8% (95% CI: 6%-10%). There was substantial variation between studies (p<0.001 across all variables), and most data were from urban tertiary referral centres. Only one population-based study assessing incidence and/or prevalence of heart failure was identified. CONCLUSIONS: The presentation, underlying causes, management, and outcomes of heart failure vary substantially across LMICs. On average, the use of evidence-based medications tends to be suboptimal. Better strategies for heart failure surveillance and management in LMICs are needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Degree of blood pressure reduction and recurrent stroke: the PROGRESS trial.

OBJECTIVE: There is ongoing controversy regarding a 'J-curve' phenomenon such that low and high blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with increased risks of recurrent stroke. We aimed to determine whether large treatment-related BP reductions are associated with increased risks of recurrent stroke. DESIGN: Data are from the PROGRESS trial, where 6105 patients with cerebrovascular disease were randomly assigned to either active treatment (perindopril ± indapamide) or placebo(s). There were no BP criteria for entry. BP was measured at every visit, and participant groups defined by reduction in systolic BP (SBP) from baseline were used for the analyses. Outcome was recurrent stroke. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 3.9 years, 727 recurrent strokes were observed. There were clear associations between the magnitude of SBP reduction and the risk of recurrent stroke. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and randomised treatment, annual incidence was 2.08%, 2.10%, 2.31% and 2.96% for participant groups defined by SBP reductions of ≥ 20, 10-19, 0-9 and <0 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.0006 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: The present analysis provided no evidence of an increase in recurrent stroke associated with larger reductions in SBP produced by treatment among patients with cerebrovascular disease.

Population impact of a high cardiovascular risk management program delivered by village doctors in rural China: design and rationale of a large, cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The high-risk strategy has been proven effective in preventing cardiovascular disease; however, the population benefits from these interventions remain unknown. This study aims to assess, at the population level, the effects of an evidence-based high cardiovascular risk management program delivered by village doctors in rural China. METHODS: The study will employ a cluster-randomized controlled trial in which a total of 120 villages in five northern provinces of China, will be assigned to either intervention (60 villages) or control (60 villages). Village doctors in intervention villages will be trained to implement a simple evidence-based management program designed to identify, treat and follow-up as many as possible individuals at high-risk of cardiovascular disease in the village. The intervention will also include performance feedback as well as a performance-based incentive payment scheme and will last for 2 years. We will draw two different (independent) random samples, before and after the intervention, 20 men aged≥50 years and 20 women aged≥60 years from each village in each sample and a total of 9,600 participants from 2 samples to measure the study outcomes at the population level. The primary outcome will be the pre-post difference in mean systolic blood pressure, analyzed with a generalized estimating equations extension of linear regression model to account for cluster effect. Secondary outcomes will include monthly clinic visits, provision of lifestyle advice, use of antihypertensive medications and use of aspirin. Process and economic evaluations will also be conducted. DISCUSSION: This trial will be the first implementation trial in the world to evaluate the population impact of the high-risk strategy in prevention and control of cardiovascular disease. The results are expected to provide important information (effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, feasibility and acceptability) to guide policy making for rural China as well as other resource-limited countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01259700). Date of initial registration is December 13, 2010.

Baseline cognitive function, recurrent stroke, and risk of dementia in patients with stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To determine the interrelationships between baseline Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and risk of overall dementia, post-recurrent stroke dementia, and dementia without recurrent stroke among patients with a history of stroke. METHODS: Prospective cohort study among participants enrolled in the Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS) for whom baseline MMSE score was available. Baseline MMSE score was divided into 4 categories: 30, 29-27, 26-24, and <24. Participants were followed for incident dementia and recurrent stroke. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association between MMSE score and dementia. RESULTS: Of the 6080 participants included in this analysis, 2493 had an MMSE score of 30, 1768 had a score of 29-28, 1369 had a score of 26-24, and 450 had a score of <24. Average follow-up time was 3.8 years. There were 407 cases of dementia, 106 of which were preceded by a recurrent stroke. The risk of overall dementia increased with decreasing MMSE score. However, the impact of MMSE score on the risk of dementia without recurrent stroke was much stronger than the impact of MMSE score on the risk of post-recurrent stroke dementia. For those with MMSE score <24, the risk of dementia without recurrent stroke was 47.89 (95% confidence interval, 28.57-80.26), whereas the risk of post-recurrent stroke dementia was only 7.17 (95% confidence interval, 3.70-13.89). Higher MMSE scores were even less strongly associated with the risk of post-recurrent stroke dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stroke with low MMSE scores are at high risk of dementia over time, even in the absence of a recurrent stroke, and should therefore be followed closely for further cognitive decline.

Intensive glucose control improves kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The effect of intensive glucose control on major kidney outcomes in type 2 diabetes remains unclear. To study this, the ADVANCE trial randomly assigned 11,140 participants to an intensive glucose-lowering strategy (hemoglobin A1c target 6.5% or less) or standard glucose control. Treatment effects on end-stage renal disease ((ESRD), requirement for dialysis or renal transplantation), total kidney events, renal death, doubling of creatinine to above 200 µmol/l, new-onset macroalbuminuria or microalbuminuria, and progression or regression of albuminuria, were then assessed. After a median of 5 years, the mean hemoglobin A1c level was 6.5% in the intensive group, and 7.3% in the standard group. Intensive glucose control significantly reduced the risk of ESRD by 65% (20 compared to 7 events), microalbuminuria by 9% (1298 compared to 1410 patients), and macroalbuminuria by 30% (162 compared to 231 patients). The progression of albuminuria was significantly reduced by 10% and its regression significantly increased by 15%. The results were almost identical in analyses taking account of potential competing risks. The number of participants needed to treat over 5 years to prevent one ESRD event ranged from 410 in the overall study to 41 participants with macroalbuminuria at baseline. Thus, improved glucose control will improve major kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Severe hypoglycemia and risks of vascular events and death.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypoglycemia may increase the risk of a poor outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes assigned to an intensive glucose-lowering intervention. We analyzed data from a large study of intensive glucose lowering to explore the relationship between severe hypoglycemia and adverse clinical outcomes. METHODS: We examined the associations between severe hypoglycemia and the risks of macrovascular or microvascular events and death among 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes, using Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustment for covariates measured at baseline and after randomization. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 231 patients (2.1%) had at least one severe hypoglycemic episode; 150 had been assigned to intensive glucose control (2.7% of the 5571 patients in that group), and 81 had been assigned to standard glucose control (1.5% of the 5569 patients in that group). The median times from the onset of severe hypoglycemia to the first major macrovascular event, the first major microvascular event, and death were 1.56 years (interquartile range, 0.84 to 2.41), 0.99 years (interquartile range, 0.40 to 2.17), and 1.05 years (interquartile range, 0.34 to 2.41), respectively. During follow-up, severe hypoglycemia was associated with a significant increase in the adjusted risks of major macrovascular events (hazard ratio, 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01 to 4.12), major microvascular events (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.19 to 2.74), death from a cardiovascular cause (hazard ratio, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72 to 4.19), and death from any cause (hazard ratio, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.97 to 3.67) (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Similar associations were apparent for a range of nonvascular outcomes, including respiratory, digestive, and skin conditions (P<0.01 for all comparisons). No relationship was found between repeated episodes of severe hypoglycemia and vascular outcomes or death. CONCLUSIONS: Severe hypoglycemia was strongly associated with increased risks of a range of adverse clinical outcomes. It is possible that severe hypoglycemia contributes to adverse outcomes, but these analyses indicate that hypoglycemia is just as likely to be a marker of vulnerability to such events. (Funded by Servier and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00145925.).

Statins and intracerebral hemorrhage: collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A recent large, randomized trial suggested that statins may increase the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage. Accordingly, we systematically reviewed the association of statins with intracerebral hemorrhage in randomized and observational data. METHODS AND RESULTS: We screened 17 electronic bibliographic databases to identify eligible studies and consulted with experts in the field. We used DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models to compute summary risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Randomized trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies were analyzed separately. Only adjusted risk estimates were used for pooling observational data. We included published and unpublished data from 23 randomized trials and 19 observational studies. The complete data set comprised 248 391 patients and 14 784 intracerebral hemorrhages. Statins were not associated with an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhage in randomized trials (risk ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.41), cohort studies (risk ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.10), or case-control studies (risk ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.88). Substantial statistical heterogeneity was evident for the case-control studies (I(2)=66%, P=0.01), but not for the cohort studies (I(2)=0%, P=0.48) or randomized trials (I(2)=30%, P=0.09). Sensitivity analyses by study design features, patient characteristics, or magnitude of cholesterol lowering did not materially alter the results. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that statins were associated with intracerebral hemorrhage; if such a risk is present, its absolute magnitude is likely to be small and outweighed by the other cardiovascular benefits of these drugs.