Use of Sequential Hot-Deck Imputation for Missing Health Care Systems Data for Population Health Research.

Electronic medical record (EMR) data present many opportunities for population health research. The use of EMR data for population risk models can be impeded by the high proportion of missingness in key patient variables. Common approaches like complete case analysis and multiple imputation may not be appropriate for some population health initiatives that require a single, complete analytic data set. In this study, we demonstrate a sequential hot-deck imputation (HDI) procedure to address missingness in a set of cardiometabolic measures in an EMR data set. We assessed the performance of sequential HDI within the individual variables and a commonly used composite risk score. A data set of cardiometabolic measures based on EMR data from 2 large urban hospitals was used to create a benchmark data set with simulated missingness. Sequential HDI was applied, and the resulting data were used to calculate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. The performance of the imputation approach was assessed using a set of metrics to evaluate the distribution and validity of the imputed data. Of the 567,841 patients, 65% had at least 1 missing cardiometabolic measure. Sequential HDI resulted in the distribution of variables and risk scores that reflected those in the simulated data while retaining correlation. When stratified by age and sex, risk scores were plausible and captured patterns expected in the general population. The use of sequential HDI was shown to be a suitable approach to multivariate missingness in EMR data. Sequential HDI could benefit population health research by providing a straightforward, computationally nonintensive approach to missing EMR data that results in a single analytic data set.

Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 recommendation on the use of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: To provide updated model-based estimates of the net balance in benefits and harms from routine use of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: Microsimulation modeling was used to estimate long-term benefits and harms for hypothetical US cohorts of men and women aged 40 to 79 years with up to 20% 10-year risk for an atherosclerotic CVD event and without prior history of CVD or elevated bleeding risks. Exposures: Low-dose (≤100 mg/d) aspirin for lifetime use, unless contraindicated by a bleeding event, and with stopping ages in 5-year intervals from age 65 to 85 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were lifetime net benefits measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-years. Benefits included reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Harms included increased nonfatal major gastrointestinal bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage. Reduced CRC incidence was considered in sensitivity analysis. Results: Estimated lifetime net QALYs were positive for both men and women at 5% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 40 and 59 years and at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 60 and 69 years. These estimates ranged from 2.3 (95% CI, -2.7 to 7.4) to 66.2 (95% CI, 58.2 to 74.1) QALYs per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were positive for men at 5% or greater and women at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk starting aspirin at ages 40 to 49 years and for men at 7.5% or greater and women at 15% or greater 10-year CVD risk at ages 50 to 59 years. These estimates ranged from 0.4 (95% CI, -6.1 to 6.9) to 52.4 (95% CI, 43.9 to 60.9) life-years per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were negative in most cases for persons starting aspirin between ages 60 and 79 years, as were lifetime net QALYs for persons aged 70 to 79 years. Stopping aspirin between ages 65 and 85 years generally showed little advantage compared with lifetime use. Sensitivity analyses showed lifetime net benefits may be higher if aspirin reduced CRC incidence or CVD mortality and lower if aspirin increased fatal major gastrointestinal bleeding or reduced quality of life with routine use. Conclusions and Relevance: This microsimulation study suggested that several population groups may benefit from taking aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD, primarily in persons starting at younger ages with higher 10-year CVD risk.

Projecting the future impact of past accomplishments in tobacco control.

BACKGROUND: The benefits to adults who quit smoking increase over time as former smokers live longer, healthier lives. Youth who never smoke will benefit for decades. Thus, the long-term population effects of tobacco prevention and control policies may be substantial. Yet they are rarely quantified in evaluations of state tobacco control programmes. METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, we predicted the benefits to Minnesotans from 2018 to 2037 of having reduced cigarette smoking prevalence from 1998 to 2017. We first simulated the health and economic harms of tobacco that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. The harms produced by that scenario were then compared with harms in scenarios with smoking declining at observed rates from 1998 to 2017 and either expected declines from 2018 to 2037 or a greater decline to 5% prevalence in 2037. RESULTS: With expected smoking prevalence decreases from 2018 to 2037, Minnesotans will experience 12 298 fewer cancers, 72 208 fewer hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 31 913 fewer respiratory disease hospitalisations, 14 063 fewer smoking-attributable deaths, $10.2 billion less in smoking-attributable medical expenditures and $9.4 billion in productivity gains than if prevalence had stayed at 1997 levels. These gains are two to four times greater than for the previous 20 years, and would be about 15% higher if Minnesota achieves a 5% adult prevalence rate by 2037. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco control measures implemented from 1998 to 2017 will produce accelerated benefits during 2018-2037 if modest progress in tobacco prevalence rates is maintained.

Twenty-year health and economic impact of reducing cigarette use: Minnesota 1998-2017.

BACKGROUND: Adult smoking prevalence in Minnesota fell from 21.8% in 1997 to 15.2% in 2016. This reduction improved heart and lung health, prevented cancers, extended life and reduced healthcare costs, but quantifying these benefits is difficult. METHODS: 1.3 million individuals were simulated in a tobacco policy model to estimate the gains to Minnesotans from 1998 to 2017 in health, medical spending reductions and productivity gains due to reduced cigarette smoking. A constant prevalence scenario was created to simulate the tobacco harms that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. Those harms were compared with tobacco harms from a scenario of actual smoking prevalence in Minnesota from 1998 to 2017. RESULTS: The simulation model predicts that reducing cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2017 has prevented 4560 cancers, 31 691 hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 12 881 respiratory disease hospitalisations and 4118 smoking-attributable deaths. Minnesotans spent an estimated $2.7 billion less in medical care and gained $2.4 billion in paid and unpaid productivity, inflation adjusted to 2017 US$. In sensitivity analysis, medical care savings ranged from $1.7 to $3.6 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Minnesota's investment in comprehensive tobacco control measures has driven down smoking rates, saved billions in medical care and productivity costs and prevented tobacco related diseases of its residents. The simulation method employed in this study can be adapted to other geographies and time periods to bring to light the invisible gains of tobacco control.

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets. RESULTS: The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6-9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: 1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

Preventing Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Deaths: Assessing the Impact of Increased Screening.

INTRODUCTION: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends select preventive clinical services, including cancer screening. However, screening for cancers remains underutilized in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads initiatives to increase breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We assessed the number of avoidable deaths from increased screening, according to USPSTF recommendations, for CRC and female breast and cervical cancers. METHODS: We used model-based estimates of avoidable deaths for the lifetime of single-year age cohorts under the current and increased use of screening scenarios (data year 2016; analysis, 2018). We calculated prevented cancer deaths for each 1% increase in screening uptake and extrapolated to current level of screening (2016), current level plus 10 percentage points, and increasing screening to 90% and 100% of the eligible population. RESULTS: Increased use of screening from current levels to 100% would prevent an additional 2,821 deaths from breast cancer, 6,834 deaths from cervical cancer, and 35,530 deaths from CRC over a lifetime of the respective single-year cohort. Increasing use of CRC screening would prevent approximately 8.5 times as many deaths as the equivalent increase in use of breast cancer screening (women only), although twice as many people (men and women) would have to be screened for CRC. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of deaths could be avoided by increasing breast, cervical, and CRC screening. Public health programs incorporating strategies shown to be effective can help increase screening rates.

Modeling the Health and Budgetary Impacts of a Team-based Hypertension Care Intervention That Includes Pharmacists.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the potential health and budgetary impacts of implementing a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension management model in the United States. RESEARCH DESIGN: In 2017, we evaluated a pharmacist-involved team-based care intervention among 3 targeted groups using a microsimulation model designed to estimate cardiovascular event incidence and associated health care spending in a cross-section of individuals representative of the US population: implementing it among patients with: (1) newly diagnosed hypertension; (2) persistently (≥1 year) uncontrolled blood pressure (BP); or (3) treated, yet persistently uncontrolled BP-and report outcomes over 5 and 20 years. We describe the spending thresholds for each intervention strategy to achieve budget neutrality in 5 years from a payer's perspective. RESULTS: Offering this intervention could prevent 22.9-36.8 million person-years of uncontrolled BP and 77,200-230,900 heart attacks and strokes in 5 years (83.8-174.8 million and 393,200-922,900 in 20 years, respectively). Health and economic benefits strongly favored groups 2 and 3. Assuming an intervention cost of $525 per enrollee, the intervention generates 5-year budgetary cost-savings only for Medicare among groups 2 and 3. To achieve budget neutrality in 5 years across all groups, intervention costs per person need to be around $35 for Medicaid, $180 for private insurance, and $335 for Medicare enrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension model could substantially improve BP control and cardiovascular outcomes in the United States. Net cost-savings among groups 2 and 3 make a compelling case for Medicare, but favorable economics may also be possible for private insurers, particularly if innovations could moderately lower the cost of delivering an effective intervention.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Asymptomatic Screening for Hypertension and High Cholesterol and Aspirin Counseling for Primary Prevention.

PURPOSE: Our aim was to update estimates of the health and economic impact of clinical services recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for the comparative rankings of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, and to explore differences in outcomes by sex and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We used a single, integrated, microsimulation model to generate comparable results for 3 services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force: aspirin counseling for the primary prevention of CVD and colorectal cancer, screening and treatment for lipid disorders (usually high cholesterol), and screening and treatment for hypertension. Analyses compare lifetime outcomes from the societal perspective for a US-representative birth cohort of 100,000 persons with and without access to each clinical preventive service. Primary outcomes are health impact, measured by the net difference in lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness, measured in incremental cost per QALY or cost savings per person in 2012 dollars. Results are also presented for population subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Health impact is highest for hypertension screening and treatment (15,600 QALYs), but is closely followed by cholesterol screening and treatment (14,300 QALYs). Aspirin counseling has a lower health impact (2,200 QALYs) but is found to be cost saving ($31 saved per person). Cost-effectiveness for cholesterol and hypertension screening and treatment is $33,800 per QALY and $48,500 per QALY, respectively. Findings favor hypertension over cholesterol screening and treatment for women, and opportunities to reduce disease burden across all services are greatest for the non-Hispanic black population. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 CVD preventive services continue to rank highly among other recommended preventive services for US adults, but individual priorities can be tailored in practice by taking a patient's demographic characteristics and clinical objectives into account.

Updated Priorities Among Effective Clinical Preventive Services.

PURPOSE: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's provisions for first-dollar coverage of evidence-based preventive services have reduced an important barrier to receipt of preventive care. Safety-net providers, however, still serve a substantial uninsured population, and clinician and patient time remain limited in all primary care settings. As a consequence, decision makers continue to set priorities to help focus their efforts. This report updates estimates of relative health impact and cost-effectiveness for evidence-based preventive services. METHODS: We assessed the potential impact of 28 evidence-based clinical preventive services in terms of their cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden, as measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of the 2 measures-cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden-for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. New microsimulation models were used to provide updated estimates of 12 of these services. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally. RESULTS: The 3 highest-ranking services, each with a total score of 10, are immunizing children, counseling to prevent tobacco initiation among youth, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention to encourage cessation among adults. Greatest population health improvement could be obtained from increasing utilization of clinical preventive services that address tobacco use, obesity-related behaviors, and alcohol misuse, as well as colorectal cancer screening and influenza vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies high-priority preventive services and should help decision makers select which services to emphasize in quality-improvement initiatives.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults.

PURPOSE: To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. METHODS: We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. RESULTS: Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. CONCLUSIONS: Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that aspirin is effective for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) but also increases the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) and cerebral hemorrhages. OBJECTIVE: To assess the net balance of benefits and harms from routine aspirin use across clinically relevant age, sex, and CVD risk groups. DESIGN: Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: 3 systematic evidence reviews. TARGET POPULATION: Men and women aged 40 to 79 years with a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or less, and no history of CVD and without elevated risk for GI or cerebral hemorrhages that would contraindicate aspirin use. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime, 20 years, and 10 years. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical. INTERVENTION: Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes are length and quality of life measured in net life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. Benefits include reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal CVD, CRC incidence, and CRC mortality. Harms include increased fatal and nonfatal GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years are positive for most adults initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 69 years, and life expectancy gains are expected for most men and women initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 59 years and 60 to 69 years with higher CVD risk. Harms may exceed benefits for persons starting aspirin in their 70s and for many during the first 10 to 20 years of use. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are most sensitive to the relative risk for hemorrhagic stroke and CVD mortality but are affected by all relative risk estimates, baseline GI bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates, and disutilities associated with aspirin use. LIMITATIONS: Aspirin effects by age are uncertain. Stroke benefits are conservatively estimated. Gastrointestinal bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates account only for age and sex. CONCLUSION: Lifetime aspirin use for primary prevention initiated at younger ages (40 to 69 years) and in persons with higher CVD risk shows the greatest potential for positive net benefit. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

A Successful Multifaceted Trial to Improve Hypertension Control in Primary Care: Why Did it Work?

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand which components of successful multifaceted interventions are responsible for study outcomes, since some components may be more important contributors to the intervention effect than others. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a mediation analysis to determine which of seven factors had the greatest effect on change in systolic blood pressure (BP) after 6 months in a trial to improve hypertension control. DESIGN: The study was a preplanned secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized clinical trial. Eight clinics in an integrated health system were randomized to provide usual care to their patients (n = 222), and eight were randomized to provide a telemonitoring intervention (n = 228). PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred three of 450 trial participants completing the 6-month follow-up visit were included. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention group participants received home BP telemonitors and transmitted measurements to pharmacists, who adjusted medications and provided advice to improve adherence to medications and lifestyle modification via telephone visits. MAIN MEASURES: Path analytic models estimated indirect effects of the seven potential mediators of intervention effect (defined as the difference between the intervention and usual care groups in change in systolic BP from baseline to 6 months). The potential mediators were change in home BP monitor use, number of BP medication classes, adherence to BP medications, physical activity, salt intake, alcohol use, and weight. KEY RESULTS: The difference in change in systolic BP was 11.3 mmHg. The multivariable mediation model explained 47 % (5.3 mmHg) of the intervention effect. Nearly all of this was mediated by two factors: an increase in medication treatment intensity (24 %) and increased home BP monitor use (19 %). The other five factors were not significant mediators, although medication adherence and salt intake improved more in the intervention group than in the usual care group. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the explained intervention effect was attributable to the combination of self-monitoring and medication intensification. High adherence at baseline and the relatively low intensity of resources directed toward lifestyle change may explain why these factors did not contribute to the improvement in BP.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach.

OBJECTIVE: To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. METHOD: We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. RESULTS: Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35-54years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. CONCLUSION: Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers' excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting.

A stepped-wedge evaluation of an initiative to spread the collaborative care model for depression in primary care.

PURPOSE: Scale-up and spread of evidence-based practices is one of the most important challenges facing health care. We tested whether a statewide initiative, Depression Improvement Across Minnesota-Offering a New Direction (DIAMOND), to implement the collaborative care model for depression in 75 primary care clinics resulted in patient outcome improvements corresponding to those reported in randomized controlled trials. METHODS: Health plans provided a new monthly payment to participating clinics after a 6-month intensive training program with ongoing data submission, networking, and consultation. Implementation was staggered, with 5 sequences of 10 to 40 clinics every 6 months. Payers provided weekly contact information for members from participating clinics who were filling antidepressant prescriptions, and we conducted baseline and 6-month surveys of 1,578 patients about their care and outcomes. RESULTS: There were 466 patients in DIAMOND clinics who received usual care before implementation (UCB), 559 who received usual care in DIAMOND clinics after implementation (UCA), 245 who received DIAMOND care after implementation (DCA), and 308 who received usual care in comparison clinics (UC). Patients who received DIAMOND care after implementation reported more collaborative care depression services than the 3 comparison groups (10.9 vs 6.4-6.7, on a scale of 0 of 14, where higher numbers indicate more services; P <.001) and more satisfaction with their care (4.0 vs 3.4 on a scale 1 to 5, in which higher scores indicate higher satisfaction; P ≤.001). Depression remission rates, however, were not significantly different among the 4 groups (36.4% DCA vs 35.8% UCB, 35.0% UCA, 33.9% UC; P = .94). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the incentive of a supporting payment change and intensive training and support for clinics volunteering to participate, no difference in depression outcomes was documented. Specific unmeasured actions present in trials but not present in these clinics may be critical for successful outcome improvement.

Designing and implementing research on a statewide quality improvement initiative: the DIAMOND study and initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate a rigorous methodology that optimally balanced internal validity with generalizability to evaluate a statewide collaborative that implemented an evidence-based, collaborative care model for depression management in primary care. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Several operational features of the DIAMOND (Depression Improvement Across Minnesota, Offering a New Direction) Initiative suggested that the DIAMOND Study use a staggered implementation design with repeated cross-sections of patients across clinical settings. A multilevel recruitment strategy elicited virtually complete study participation from the medical groups, clinics, and health plans that coordinated efforts to deliver and reimburse DIAMOND care. Patient identification capitalized on large health plan claims databases to rapidly identify the population of patients newly treated for depression in DIAMOND clinics. RESULTS: The staggered implementation design and multilevel recruitment strategy made it possible to evaluate DIAMOND by holding confounding factors constant and accurately identifying an intent-to-treat population of patients treated for depression without intruding on or requiring effort from their clinics. CONCLUSIONS: Recruitment and data collection from health plans, medical groups and clinics, and patients ensured a representative, intent-to-treat sample of study-enrolled patients. Separating patient identification from care delivery reduced threats of selection bias and enabled comparisons between the treated population and study sample. A key challenge is that intent-to-treat patients may not be exposed to DIAMOND which dilutes the effect size but offers realistic expectations of the impact of quality improvement in a population of treated patients.

Effect of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management on blood pressure control: a cluster randomized clinical trial.

IMPORTANCE: Only about half of patients with high blood pressure (BP) in the United States have their BP controlled. Practical, robust, and sustainable models are needed to improve BP control in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether an intervention combining home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management improves BP control compared with usual care and to determine whether BP control is maintained after the intervention is stopped. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A cluster randomized clinical trial of 450 adults with uncontrolled BP recruited from 14,692 patients with electronic medical records across 16 primary care clinics in an integrated health system in Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota, with 12 months of intervention and 6 months of postintervention follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Eight clinics were randomized to provide usual care to patients (n = 222) and 8 clinics were randomized to provide a telemonitoring intervention (n = 228). Intervention patients received home BP telemonitors and transmitted BP data to pharmacists who adjusted antihypertensive therapy accordingly. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Control of systolic BP to less than 140 mm Hg and diastolic BP to less than 90 mm Hg (<130/80 mm Hg in patients with diabetes or chronic kidney disease) at 6 and 12 months. Secondary outcomes were change in BP, patient satisfaction, and BP control at 18 months (6 months after intervention stopped). RESULTS: At baseline, enrollees were 45% women, 82% white, mean (SD) age was 61.1 (12.0) years, and mean systolic BP was 148 mm Hg and diastolic BP was 85 mm Hg. Blood pressure was controlled at both 6 and 12 months in 57.2% (95% CI, 44.8% to 68.7%) of patients in the telemonitoring intervention group vs 30.0% (95% CI, 23.2% to 37.8%) of patients in the usual care group (P = .001). At 18 months (6 months of postintervention follow-up), BP was controlled in 71.8% (95% CI, 65.0% to 77.8%) of patients in the telemonitoring intervention group vs 57.1% (95% CI, 51.5% to 62.6%) of patients in the usual care group (P = .003). Compared with the usual care group, systolic BP decreased more from baseline among patients in the telemonitoring intervention group at 6 months (-10.7 mm Hg [95% CI, -14.3 to -7.3 mm Hg]; P<.001), at 12 months (-9.7 mm Hg [95% CI, -13.4 to -6.0 mm Hg]; P<.001), and at 18 months (-6.6 mm Hg [95% CI, -10.7 to -2.5 mm Hg]; P = .004). Compared with the usual care group, diastolic BP decreased more from baseline among patients in the telemonitoring intervention group at 6 months (-6.0 mm Hg [95% CI, -8.6 to -3.4 mm Hg]; P<.001), at 12 months (-5.1 mm Hg [95% CI, -7.4 to -2.8 mm Hg]; P<.001), and at 18 months (-3.0 mm Hg [95% CI, -6.3 to 0.3 mm Hg]; P = .07). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Home BP telemonitoring and pharmacist case management achieved better BP control compared with usual care during 12 months of intervention that persisted during 6 months of postintervention follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00781365.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities.

Introduction: This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies. Methods: We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population. Results: Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts. Conclusions: The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

Severity of depression and magnitude of productivity loss.

PURPOSE: Depression is associated with lowered work functioning, including absences, impaired productivity, and decreased job retention. Few studies have examined depression symptoms across a continuum of severity in relationship to the magnitude of work impairment in a large and heterogeneous patient population, however. We assessed the relationship between depression symptom severity and productivity loss among patients initiating treatment for depression. METHODS: Data were obtained from patients participating in the DIAMOND (Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction) initiative, a statewide quality improvement collaborative to provide enhanced depression care. Patients newly started on antidepressants were surveyed with the Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item screen (PHQ-9), a measure of depression symptom severity; the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) questionnaire, a measure of loss in productivity; and items on health status and demographics. RESULTS: We analyzed data from the 771 patients who reported being currently employed. General linear models adjusting for demographics and health status showed a significant linear, monotonic relationship between depression symptom severity and productivity loss: with every 1-point increase in PHQ-9 score, patients experienced an additional mean productivity loss of 1.65% (P <.001). Even minor levels of depression symptoms were associated with decrements in work function. Full-time vs part-time employment status and self-reported fair or poor health vs excellent, very good, or good health were also associated with a loss of productivity (P <.001 and P=.045, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a relationship between the severity of depression symptoms and work function, and suggests that even minor levels of depression are associated with a loss of productivity. Employers may find it beneficial to invest in effective treatments for depressed employees across the continuum of depression severity.

Partnership research: a practical trial design for evaluation of a natural experiment to improve depression care.

BACKGROUND: Translational research is increasingly important as academic health centers transform themselves to meet new requirements of National Institutes of Health funding. Most attention has focused on T1 translation studies (bench to bedside) with considerable uncertainty about how to enhance T2 (effectiveness trials) and especially T3 (implementation studies). OBJECTIVE: To describe an innovative example of a T3 study, conducted as partnership research with the leaders of a major natural experiment in Minnesota to improve the primary care of depression. METHODS: All health plans in the state have agreed on a new payment model to support clinics that implement the well-evidenced collaborative care model for depression in the Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction initiative. The Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction study was developed in an ongoing partnership with the Initiative leaders from 7 health plans, 85 clinics, and a regional quality improvement collaborative to evaluate the implementation and its impacts on patients and other stakeholders. We agreed on a staggered implementation, multiple baseline research design, using the concepts of practical clinical trials and engaged scholarship and have collaborated on all aspects of conducting the study, including joint identification of patient and clinic survey recipients. RESULTS: Complex study methods have worked well through 20 months because of the commitment of all stakeholders to both the Initiative and the Study. Over 1500 subjects have been recruited from health plan information delivered weekly, and 99.7% of 316 physicians and administrators from all participating clinical organizations have completed the Study surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Partnership research can greatly facilitate translational research studies.

The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. METHODS: Using the HealthPartners Institute's ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. RESULTS: The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. CONCLUSION: Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.