Evolving Real-World Effectiveness of Monoclonal Antibodies for Treatment of COVID-19 : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines and U.S. Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorizations (EUAs) of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for treatment of high-risk outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 changed frequently as different SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether early outpatient treatment with mAbs, overall and by mAb product, presumed SARS-CoV-2 variant, and immunocompromised status, is associated with reduced risk for hospitalization or death at 28 days. DESIGN: Hypothetical pragmatic randomized trial from observational data comparing mAb-treated patients with a propensity score-matched, nontreated control group. SETTING: Large U.S. health care system. PARTICIPANTS: High-risk outpatients eligible for mAb treatment under any EUA with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result from 8 December 2020 to 31 August 2022. INTERVENTION: Single-dose intravenous mAb treatment with bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab-etesevimab, sotrovimab, bebtelovimab, or intravenous or subcutaneous casirivimab-imdevimab administered within 2 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was hospitalization or death at 28 days among treated patients versus a nontreated control group (no treatment or treatment ≥3 days after SARS-CoV-2 test date). RESULTS: The risk for hospitalization or death at 28 days was 4.6% in 2571 treated patients and 7.6% in 5135 nontreated control patients (risk ratio [RR], 0.61 [95% CI, 0.50 to 0.74]). In sensitivity analyses, the corresponding RRs for 1- and 3-day treatment grace periods were 0.59 and 0.49, respectively. In subgroup analyses, those receiving mAbs when the Alpha and Delta variants were presumed to be predominant had estimated RRs of 0.55 and 0.53, respectively, compared with 0.71 for the Omicron variant period. Relative risk estimates for individual mAb products all suggested lower risk for hospitalization or death. Among immunocompromised patients, the RR was 0.45 (CI, 0.28 to 0.71). LIMITATIONS: Observational study design, SARS-CoV-2 variant presumed by date rather than genotyping, no data on symptom severity, and partial data on vaccination status. CONCLUSION: Early mAb treatment among outpatients with COVID-19 is associated with lower risk for hospitalization or death for various mAb products and SARS-CoV-2 variants. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Relationship between predicting bleeding complication in patients undergoing stent implantation and subsequent dual antiplatelet therapy (PRECISE-DAPT) score and mortality among patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: The predicting bleeding complication in patients undergoing stent implantation and subsequent dual antiplatelet therapy, PRECISE-DAPT (P-DAPT) score has been validated in large cohorts as an effective tool in predicting bleeding complication after dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) as well as in predicting in-hospital mortality. The implication of using this score to predict outcomes, including mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing PCI is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Role of P-DAPT score to study clinical outcomes, including mortality, hospitalization, and major bleeding, particularly among patients with AF. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study of 18,850 consecutive patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) across a large multihospital healthcare system from 2010 to 2019. Patients were stratified into four groups depending on the presence or absence of AF and P-DAPT score, with score ≥ 25 defined as high risk. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes evaluated were hospitalization and major bleeding. RESULTS: In the unadjusted analyses, a P-DAPT score ≥ 25, in both AF and non-AF population, was associated with increased mortality, hospitalization, and bleeding. After adjusting for baseline covariates, no significant differences in major bleeding risk were found across the four groups. However, a P-DAPT score of ≥25 in AF patients was associated with a higher risk for hospitalizations related to cardiovascular causes (HR: 2.15 95% CI 2.00-2.3, p < .0001). Among AF patients, P-DAPT score ≥ 25 was found to be strongly associated with mortality (HR 3.5; 95% CI 2.95-4.25, p < .0001) as compared with AF patients with score < 25 (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.88-1.54, p = .26). CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of patients undergoing PCI, the P-DAPT score can help to identify patients at high risk for long-term mortality, particularly among those with atrial fibrillation.

Patterns of Opioid Administration Among Opioid-Naive Inpatients and Associations With Postdischarge Opioid Use: A Cohort Study.

Background: Patterns of inpatient opioid use and their associations with postdischarge opioid use are poorly understood. Objective: To measure patterns in timing, duration, and setting of opioid administration in opioid-naive hospitalized patients and to examine associations with postdischarge use. Design: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data from 2010 to 2014. Setting: 12 community and academic hospitals in Pennsylvania. Patients: 148 068 opioid-naive patients (191 249 admissions) with at least 1 outpatient encounter within 12 months before and after admission. Measurements: Number of days and patterns of inpatient opioid use; any outpatient use (self-report and/or prescription orders) 90 and 365 days after discharge. Results: Opioids were administered in 48% of admissions. Patients were given opioids for a mean of 67.9% (SD, 25.0%) of their stay. Location of administration of first opioid on admission, timing of last opioid before discharge, and receipt of nonopioid analgesics varied substantially. After adjustment for potential confounders, 5.9% of inpatients receiving opioids had outpatient use at 90 days compared with 3.0% of those without inpatient use (difference, 3.0 percentage points [95% CI, 2.8 to 3.2 percentage points]). Opioid use at 90 days was higher in inpatients receiving opioids less than 12 hours before discharge than in those with at least 24 opioid-free hours before discharge (7.5% vs. 3.9%; difference, 3.6 percentage points [CI, 3.3 to 3.9 percentage points]). Differences based on proportion of the stay with opioid use were modest (opioid use at 90 days was 6.4% and 5.4%, respectively, for patients with opioid use for ≥75% vs. ≤25% of their stay; difference, 1.0 percentage point [CI, 0.4 to 1.5 percentage points]). Associations were similar for opioid use 365 days after discharge. Limitation: Potential unmeasured confounders related to opioid use. Conclusion: This study found high rates of opioid administration to opioid-naive inpatients and associations between specific patterns of inpatient use and risk for long-term use after discharge. Primary Funding Source: UPMC Health System and University of Pittsburgh.

Persistent sex disparities in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines recommend cardioverter defibrillator implantation for patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Despite this, women and minorities have been less likely to receive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy than white men. We examined race and sex differences in ICD implantation in a recent cohort. METHODS: Using cross-sectional, retrospective analyses, we mined our health system's outpatient electronic medical records to assess age, race, sex, medications, and comorbidities for patients aged ≥18 years with ejection fraction ≤ 35% during 2014. While adjusting for confounding variables such as medications, age, and comorbidities, we conducted a multivariable logistic regression assessing whether racial and sex differences in ICD therapy persist. RESULTS: Among 5,156 outpatients with ejection fraction ≤35%, 1,681 (32.6%) patients had an ICD present at the time of their index outpatient visit in 2014. Women were less likely to have an ICD than men (25.0% vs 36.3%, P < 0.01), and black patients were less likely to have an ICD than white patients (28.0% vs 33.2%, P  =  0.02). In adjusted multivariable analyses, women were less like to have ICDs (adjusted odds ratio [OR]  =  0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.79, P < 0.01) but the race difference dissipated (adjusted OR for black race  =  0.86, 95% CI, 0.68-1.08, P  =  0.18). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, outpatient cohort, we have shown that sex differences in ICD therapy continue to exist, but the difference in ICD prevalence by race was attenuated. Dedicated studies are required to fully understand the causes of persistent sex differences in ICD therapy.

A Phase II Dose-Escalation Study of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Precursor Cells in Patients With Ischemic or Nonischemic Heart Failure.

RATIONALE: Allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs) have been effective in large animal models of ischemic and nonischemic heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility and safety of 3 doses (25, 75, or 150 million cells) of immunoselected allogeneic MPCs in chronic HF patients in a phase 2 trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: We sequentially allocated 60 patients to a dosing cohort (20 per dose group) and randomized them to transendocardial MPC injections (n=15) or mock procedures (n=5). The primary objective was safety, including antibody testing. Secondary efficacy end points included major adverse cardiac events (MACE; cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization), left ventricular imaging, and other clinical-event surrogates. Safety and MACE were evaluated for up to 3 years. MPC injections were feasible and safe. Adverse events were similar across groups. No clinically symptomatic immune responses were noted. MACE was seen in 15 patients: 10 of 45 (22%) MPC-treated and 5 of 15 (33%) control patients. We found no differences between MPC-treated and control patients in survival probability, MACE-free probability, and all-cause mortality. We conducted a post hoc analysis of HF-related MACE (HF hospitalization, successfully resuscitated cardiac death, or cardiac death) and events were significantly reduced in the 150 million MPC group (0/15) versus control (5/15; 33%), 25 million MPC group (3/15; 20%), and 75 million MPC group (6/15; 40%); the 150 million MPC group differed significantly from all groups according to Kaplan-Meier statistics >3 years (P=0.025 for 150 million MPC group versus control). CONCLUSIONS: Transendocardial injections of allogeneic MPCs were feasible and safe in chronic HF patients. High-dose allogeneic MPCs may provide benefits in this population.

Lead related complications in quadripolar versus bipolar left ventricular leads.

BACKGROUND: Quadripolar left ventricular (LV) leads are capable of pacing from four different electrodes which allows for easier and more stable intra-operative lead positioning with optimal pacing parameters. We therefore investigated the rate of combined intra-operative and post-operative LV lead related events in quadripolar vs. bipolar LV lead cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) recipients in the real world setting. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data for N = 1441 patients at our institution implanted with quadripolar (n = 292) or bipolar (n = 1149) LV leads from 2012 to 2014 and followed them to the primary end-point of composite lead outcome defined as intra-operative lead implant failure or post-operative lead dislodgement or deactivations. RESULTS: Patients implanted with a quadripolar lead were younger (70.6 ± 11.4 vs 72.5 ± 11.6, p = 0.014) and had higher incidence of diabetes (41.8% vs 32.8%, p = 0.004) compared to those with bipolar leads. All other baseline characteristics were comparable. Patients implanted with a quadripolar were significantly less likely to reach the primary endpoint in the first 12 months after LV lead implantation (Hazard Ratio 0.22, 95% Confidence Interval 0.08-0.60, p = 0.001). There were no differences between the two groups in rates of hospitalization for any cause or in mortality. CONCLUSION: In this real world study, quadripolar LV leads have significantly lower rates of implantation failure and post-operative lead dislodgement or deactivation. These results have important clinical implications to CRT recipients.

Revascularization heart team recommendations as an adjunct to appropriate use criteria for coronary revascularization in patients with complex coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate how a comprehensive evidence-based clinical review by a multidisciplinary revascularization heart team on treatment decisions for revascularization in patients with complex coronary artery disease using SYNTAX scores combined with Society of Thoracic Surgeons-derived clinical variables can be additive to the utilization of Appropriate Use Criteria for coronary revascularization. BACKGROUND: Decision-making regarding the use of revascularization for coronary artery disease has come under major scrutiny due to inappropriate overuse of revascularization. There is little data in routine clinical practice evaluating how a structured, multidisciplinary heart team approach may be used in combination with the Appropriate Use Criteria for revascularization. METHODS: From May 1, 2012 to January 1, 2015, multidisciplinary revascularization heart team meetings were convened to discuss evidence-based management of 301 patients with complex coronary artery disease. Heart team recommendations were adjudicated with the Appropriate Use Criteria for coronary revascularization for each clinical scenario using the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions' Quality Improvement Toolkit (SCAI-QIT) Appropriate Use Criteria App. RESULTS: Concordance of the Heart Team to Appropriate Use Criteria had a 99.3% appropriate primary indication for coronary revascularization. Among patients who underwent percutaneous revascularization, 34.9% had an inappropriate or uncertain indication as recommended by the Heart Team. Patients with uncertain or inappropriate percutaneous coronary interventions had significantly higher SYNTAX score (27.3 ± 6.6; 28.5 ± 5.5; 19.2 ± 6; P < 0.0001) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Predicted Risk of Mortality (6.1% ± 4.7%; 8.1% ± 6.3%; 3.7% ± 4.1%; P < 0.0081) compared to appropriate indications, frequently had concomitant forms of advanced comorbidities and frailty in the setting of symptomatic coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: A formal, multidisciplinary revascularization heart team can provide proper validation for clinical decisions and should be considered in combination with the Appropriate Use Criteria for coronary revascularization to formulate revascularization strategies for individuals in a patient-centered fashion. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Identification of Intrastent Pathology Associated With Late Stent Thrombosis Using Optical Coherence Tomography.

OBJECTIVE: To better characterize intrastent pathology using optical coherence tomography (OCT) in patients presenting with late and very late stent thrombosis (LST/VLST). BACKGROUND: The contribution of specific intrastent pathologies to the development of LST/VLST is not well understood. METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective, observational study of 796 consecutive patients treated for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with primary PCI we identified 57 patients (7.2%) in whom STEMI resulted from LST/VLST. Of the patients with LST/VLST, 21 patients (37%) had OCT performed at the discretion of the operator during PCI for LST/VLST. Independent reviewers performed qualitative offline analysis of OCT images to determine the cause of stent thrombosis defined as the specific intrastent pathology associated with thrombus deposition. RESULTS: The principal intrastent pathology causing LST/VLST was determined to be stent malapposition in 11 patients (55%), of which 5 (25% of all LST/VLST patents) had findings suggestive of positive vessel remodeling. Neoatherosclerosis was determined to be the cause of LST/VLST in 7 patients (35%). LST/VLST resulted from uncovered stent struts in 2 patients (10%). Among all LST/VLST patients, in-hospital mortality (12.3%) and post-hospital target vessel failure (TVF) or cardiac death (21.7%, median follow-up 1.6 years) remained high. There was a trend towards decreased TVF or cardiac death (7.7% vs. 27.3% P = 0.24) in patients who underwent OCT-guided therapy. CONCLUSIONS: LST/VLST remains a significant cause of STEMI and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. OCT use at the time of PCI consistently identifies significant intrastent pathology with potentially meaningful clinical impact.

External coronary artery compression due to prosthetic valve bacterial endocarditis.

Acute coronary syndromes in the setting of infective endocarditis may be the result of coronary compression secondary to periannular aortic valve complications, coronary embolism, obstruction of the coronary ostium due to a large vegetation, coronary atherosclerosis, and severe aortic insufficiency. External coronary artery compression as a result of infective endocarditis is a rare and lethal finding with few reported cases available in the medical literature. We present a rare occurrence of an acute coronary syndrome occurring in the setting of a bioprosthetic aortic valve abscess in which there was no complete coronary occlusion visualized and given the patient's recent unremarkable catheterization and findings of diffuse tapering of the proximal left coronary system, the most likely etiology was external compression secondary to the known aortic root abscess, which caused myocardial ischemia, and was confirmed during surgery. Although uncommon, external compression should be considered in the differential diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome in this setting and coronary angiography can be diagnostic of this entity.

Outcomes of small coronary artery stenting with bare-metal stents versus drug-eluting stents: results from the NHLBI Dynamic Registry.

OBJECTIVES: Examine 1-year outcomes of patients with small coronary arteries in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Dynamic Registry (NHLBI) undergoing drug-eluting stent (DES) vs. bare-metal stent (BMS) placement. BACKGROUND: While randomized trials of DES vs. BMS demonstrate reduced target vessel revascularization, it is unclear whether similar outcomes are seen in unselected patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for small coronary arteries. METHODS: Utilizing patients from the NHLBI Registry Waves 1-3 for BMS (1997-2002) and Waves 4-5 for DES (2004 and 2006), demographic, angiographic, in-hospital, and 1-year outcome data of patients with small coronary arteries treated with BMS (n = 686) vs. DES (n = 669) were evaluated. Small coronary artery was defined as 2.50-3.00 mm in diameter. RESULTS: Compared to BMS-treated patients, the mean lesion length of treated lesions was longer in the DES treated group (16.7 vs. 13.1 mm, P < 0.001) and the mean reference vessel size of attempted lesions was smaller (2.6 vs. 2.7 mm, P < 0.001). Adjusted analyses of 1-year outcomes revealed that DES patients were at lower risk to undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.95, P = 0.04), repeat PCI (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35-0.82, P = 0.004), and experience the combined major adverse cardiovascular event rate (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.83, P = 0.002). There was no difference in the risk of death and myocardial infarction (MI) (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.46-1.35, P = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world registry, patients with small coronary arteries treated with DES had significantly lower rates of repeat revascularization and major adverse cardiovascular events at 1 year compared to patients treated with BMS, with no increase in the risk of death and MI. These data confirm the efficacy and safety of DES over BMS in the treatment of small coronary arteries in routine clinical practice.

Comparison of drug-eluting and bare metal stents in large coronary arteries: findings from the NHLBI dynamic registry.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) compared to bare-metal stents (BMS) for patients with large coronary vessels. BACKGROUND: Randomized trials have demonstrated that DES reduce the risk of target vessel revascularization (TVR) compared to BMS. This benefit is less pronounced as artery diameter increases. Whether DES are superior to BMS for larger coronary arteries in the setting of routine clinical practice is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed data from 869 patients undergoing de novo lesion PCI with reference vessel diameter greater than or equal to 3.5 mm in the NHLBI Dynamic Registry according to whether they were treated with DES or BMS. Patients were followed for 3 years for the occurrence of cardiovascular events. RESULTS: At 3-year follow-up, rates of TVR at 3 years were similar and low in both groups (4.4% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.62). After adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics, the adjusted hazard ratio for 3-year MI for DES was 1.85 (95% CI 0.93-3.7, P = 0.08), for TVR at 3 years 1.14 (95% CI 0.52-2.49, P = 0.75) and for mortality 0.89 (95%CI 0.49-1.62, P = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: In our study of the unrestricted use of DES for patients with lesions in larger diameter coronary arteries, first generation DES did not reduce 3-year risk of TVR. Our findings do not support the preferred use of DES over BMS for patients with lesions located in arteries >3.5 mm. It is unknown whether secondary generation DES can offer better outcome compared to BMS in large coronary vessels. Further study on this issue is warranted.

Is LDL cholesterol associated with long-term mortality among primary prevention adults? A retrospective cohort study from a large healthcare system.

OBJECTIVES: Among primary prevention-type adults not on lipid-lowering therapy, conflicting results exist on the relationship between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and long-term mortality. We evaluated this relationship in a real-world evidence population of adults. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Electronic medical record data for adults, from 4 January 2000 through 31 December 2022, were extracted from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: Adults without diabetes aged 50-89 years not on statin therapy at baseline or within 1 year and classified as primary prevention-type patients. To mitigate potential reverse causation, patients who died within 1 year or had baseline total cholesterol (T-C) ≤120 mg/dL or LDL-C <30 mg/dL were excluded. MAIN EXPOSURE MEASURE: Baseline LDL-C categories of 30-79, 80-99, 100-129, 130-159, 160-189 or ≥190 mg/dL. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality with follow-up starting 365 days after baseline cholesterol measurement. RESULTS: 177 860 patients with a mean (SD) age of 61.1 (8.8) years and mean (SD) LDL-C of 119 (31) mg/dL were evaluated over a mean of 6.1 years of follow-up. A U-shaped relationship was observed between the six LDL-C categories and mortality with crude 10-year mortality rates of 19.8%, 14.7%, 11.7%, 10.7%, 10.1% and 14.0%, respectively. Adjusted mortality HRs as compared with the referent group of LDL-C 80-99 mg/dL were: 30-79 mg/dL (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.30), 100-129 mg/dL (0.87, 0.83-0.91), 130-159 mg/dL (0.88, 0.84-0.93), 160-189 mg/dL (0.91, 0.84-0.98) and ≥190 mg/dL (1.19, 1.06-1.34), respectively. Unlike LDL-C, both T-C/HDL cholesterol (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and triglycerides/HDL cholesterol ratios were independently associated with long-term mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among primary prevention-type patients aged 50-89 years without diabetes and not on statin therapy, the lowest risk for long-term mortality appears to exist in the wide LDL-C range of 100-189 mg/dL, which is much higher than current recommendations. For counselling these patients, minimal consideration should be given to LDL-C concentration.

Liberal versus restrictive transfusion thresholds for patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Prior trials suggest it is safe to defer transfusion at hemoglobin levels above 7 to 8 g/dL in most patients. Patients with acute coronary syndrome may benefit from higher hemoglobin levels. METHODS: We performed a pilot trial in 110 patients with acute coronary syndrome or stable angina undergoing cardiac catheterization and a hemoglobin <10 g/dL. Patients in the liberal transfusion strategy received one or more units of blood to raise the hemoglobin level ≥10 g/dL. Patients in the restrictive transfusion strategy were permitted to receive blood for symptoms from anemia or for a hemoglobin <8 g/dL. The predefined primary outcome was the composite of death, myocardial infarction, or unscheduled revascularization 30 days post randomization. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar between groups except age (liberal, 67.3; restrictive, 74.3). The mean number of units transfused was 1.6 in the liberal group and 0.6 in the restrictive group. The primary outcome occurred in 6 patients (10.9%) in the liberal group and 14 (25.5%) in the restrictive group (risk difference = 15.0%; 95% confidence interval of difference 0.7% to 29.3%; P = .054 and adjusted for age P = .076). Death at 30 days was less frequent in liberal group (n = 1, 1.8%) compared to restrictive group (n = 7, 13.0%; P = .032). CONCLUSIONS: The liberal transfusion strategy was associated with a trend for fewer major cardiac events and deaths than a more restrictive strategy. These results support the feasibility of and the need for a definitive trial.

A Retrospective Analysis of Clinical Utilization Between Patients Who Used Telemedicine and Office Visits in Outpatient Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinics During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the demographic characteristics of patients who used telemedicine and office visits in physical medicine and rehabilitation during the COVID-19 pandemic and to quantify differences in clinical utilization between groups. Clinical utilization was defined as emergency department, urgent care, and hospital visits. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of 1096 patients who used telemedicine and 1171 patients who used office visits from April to June 2020 in the outpatient physical medicine and rehabilitation clinics at University of Pittsburgh Medical Center for musculoskeletal-related complaints. RESULTS: The telemedicine groups contained proportionally more people of color and higher comorbidities than the office visit groups. Patients who were seen in the telemedicine groups were more likely to be prescribed opioids than the office visit group. There were no differences in clinical utilizations between the telemedicine and office visit groups. CONCLUSIONS: The higher use of telemedicine in patients of color suggests a need for studying long-term outcomes to evaluate differences in care standards. There is an urgent need to understand how telemedicine affects opioid prescribing practices. Lastly, future studies are needed to understand why there were no differences in clinical utilization between the telemedicine and office visit groups.

Changes in body weight and glycemic control in association with COVID-19 Shutdown among 23,000 adults with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To examine the association between COVID-19 Shutdown and within-subjects changes in body weight, body mass index (BMI), and glycemic parameters using electronic health record (EHR) data from 23,000 adults with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). METHODS: Patients with T2DM with outpatient visit data on body weight, BMI, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and blood glucose (≥ 2 measures before and after 3/16/2020) recorded in the EHR at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center were included. A within-subjects analysis compared average and clinically significant changes in weight, BMI, HbA1c, and blood glucose during the year POST-Shutdown (Time 2-3) compared to the same interval during the PRE-Shutdown year (Time 0-1) using paired samples t-tests and the McNemar-Bowker test. RESULTS: We studied 23,697 adults with T2DM (51% female; 89% White; mean age = 66 ± 13 years; mean BMI = 34 ± 7 kg/m2; mean HbA1c = 7 ± 2% [53 ± 21.9 mmol/mol]). Weight and BMI decreased during both the PRE- and POST-Shutdown intervals, but the changes were statistically smaller during the year POST-Shutdown relative to PRE (0.32 kg and 0.11 units, p < 0.0001). HbA1c showed statistically greater improvements during the POST-Shutdown interval compared to PRE (- 0.18% [-2 mmol/mol], p < 0.0001), but changes in glucose did not differ for the two intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Despite widespread discussion of weight gain in association with the COVID-19 Shutdown, study data showed no evidence of adverse effects of Shutdown on body weight, BMI, HbA1C, or blood glucose in a large sample of adults with T2DM. This information may help to inform future public health decision-making.

Implementing a Serious Illness Risk Prediction Model: Impact on Goals of Care Documentation.

CONTEXT: Goals of care conversations can promote high value care for patients with serious illness, yet documented discussions infrequently occur in hospital settings. OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop a quality improvement initiative to improve goals of care documentation for hospitalized patients. METHODS: Implementation occurred at an academic medical center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Intervention included integration of a 90-day mortality prediction model grouping patients into low, intermediate, and high risk; a centralized goals of care note; and automated notifications and targeted palliative consults. We compared documented goals of care discussions by risk score before and after implementation. RESULTS: Of the 12,571 patients hospitalized preimplementation and 10,761 postimplementation, 1% were designated high risk and 11% intermediate risk of mortality. Postimplementation, goals of care documentation increased for high (17.6%-70.8%, P< 0.0001) and intermediate risk patients (9.6%-28.0%, P < 0.0001). For intermediate risk patients, the percentage of goals of care documentation performed by palliative medicine specialists increased from pre- to postimplementation (52.3%-71.2%, P = 0.0002). For high-risk patients, the percentage of goals of care documentation completed by the primary service increased from pre-to postimplementation (36.8%-47.1%, P = 0.5898, with documentation performed by palliative medicine specialists slightly decreasing from pre- to postimplementation (63.2%-52.9%, P = 0.5898). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a goals of care initiative using a mortality prediction model significantly increased goals of care documentation especially among high-risk patients. Further study to assess strategies to increase goals of care documentation for intermediate risk patients is needed especially by nonspecialty palliative care.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Identify Patients Before Surgery at High Risk for Postoperative Adverse Events.

Importance: Identifying patients at high risk of adverse outcomes prior to surgery may allow for interventions associated with improved postoperative outcomes; however, few tools exist for automated prediction. Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of an automated machine-learning model in the identification of patients at high risk of adverse outcomes from surgery using only data in the electronic health record. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study was conducted among 1 477 561 patients undergoing surgery at 20 community and tertiary care hospitals in the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) health network. The study included 3 phases: (1) building and validating a model on a retrospective population, (2) testing model accuracy on a retrospective population, and (3) validating the model prospectively in clinical care. A gradient-boosted decision tree machine learning method was used for developing a preoperative surgical risk prediction tool. The Shapley additive explanations method was used for model interpretability and further validation. Accuracy was compared between the UPMC model and National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) surgical risk calculator for predicting mortality. Data were analyzed from September through December 2021. Exposure: Undergoing any type of surgical procedure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Postoperative mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) at 30 days were evaluated. Results: Among 1 477 561 patients included in model development (806 148 females [54.5%; mean [SD] age, 56.8 [17.9] years), 1 016 966 patient encounters were used for training and 254 242 separate encounters were used for testing the model. After deployment in clinical use, another 206 353 patients were prospectively evaluated; an additional 902 patients were selected for comparing the accuracy of the UPMC model and NSQIP tool for predicting mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for mortality was 0.972 (95% CI, 0.971-0.973) for the training set and 0.946 (95% CI, 0.943-0.948) for the test set. The AUROC for MACCE and mortality was 0.923 (95% CI, 0.922-0.924) on the training and 0.899 (95% CI, 0.896-0.902) on the test set. In prospective evaluation, the AUROC for mortality was 0.956 (95% CI, 0.953-0.959), sensitivity was 2148 of 2517 patients (85.3%), specificity was 186 286 of 203 836 patients (91.4%), and negative predictive value was 186 286 of 186 655 patients (99.8%). The model outperformed the NSQIP tool as measured by AUROC (0.945 [95% CI, 0.914-0.977] vs 0.897 [95% CI, 0.854-0.941], for a difference of 0.048), specificity (0.87 [95% CI, 0.83-0.89] vs 0.68 [95% CI, 0.65-0.69]), and accuracy (0.85 [95% CI, 0.82-0.87] vs 0.69 [95% CI, 0.66, 0.72]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that an automated machine learning model was accurate in identifying patients undergoing surgery who were at high risk of adverse outcomes using only preoperative variables within the electronic health record, with superior performance compared with the NSQIP calculator. These findings suggest that using this model to identify patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes prior to surgery may allow for individualized perioperative care, which may be associated with improved outcomes.

Implementing a Discharge Follow-up Phone Call Program Reduces Readmission Rates in an Integrated Health System.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we sought to determine the effect of implementing a large-scale discharge follow-up phone call program on hospital readmission rates. Previous work has shown that patients with unaddressed concerns during discharge have significantly higher rates of care complications and hospital readmissions. This study is an observational quality improvement project completed from April 17, 2020 to January 31, 2022 at 22 hospitals in a large, integrated academic health system. A nurse-led scripted discharge follow-up phone call program was implemented to contact all patients discharged from inpatient care within 72 hours of discharge. Readmission rates were tracked before and after project implementation. Over a 21-month span, 137,515 phone calls were placed, and 57.92% of patients were successfully contacted within 7 days of discharge. The 7-day readmission rate for contacted patients was 2.91% compared with 4.73% for noncontacted patients. The 30-day readmission rate for contacted patients was 11.00% compared with 12.17% for noncontacted patients. We have found that discharge follow-up phone calls targeting patients decreases risk of readmission, which improves overall patient outcomes.

REMAP Periop: a randomised, embedded, multifactorial adaptive platform trial protocol for perioperative medicine to determine the optimal enhanced recovery pathway components in complex abdominal surgery patients within a US healthcare system.

INTRODUCTION: Implementation of enhanced recovery pathways (ERPs) has resulted in improved patient-centred outcomes and decreased costs. However, there is a lack of high-level evidence for many ERP elements. We have designed a randomised, embedded, multifactorial, adaptive platform perioperative medicine (REMAP Periop) trial to evaluate the effectiveness of several perioperative therapies for patients undergoing complex abdominal surgery as part of an ERP. This trial will begin with two domains: postoperative nausea/vomiting (PONV) prophylaxis and regional/neuraxial analgesia. Patients enrolled in the trial will be randomised to arms within both domains, with the possibility of adding additional domains in the future. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In the PONV domain, patients are randomised to optimal versus supraoptimal prophylactic regimens. In the regional/neuraxial domain, patients are randomised to one of five different single-injection techniques/combination of techniques. The primary study endpoint is hospital-free days at 30 days, with additional domain-specific secondary endpoints of PONV incidence and postoperative opioid consumption. The efficacy of an intervention arm within a given domain will be evaluated at regular interim analyses using Bayesian statistical analysis. At the beginning of the trial, participants will have an equal probability of being allocated to any given intervention within a domain (ie, simple 1:1 randomisation), with response adaptive randomisation guiding changes to allocation ratios after interim analyses when applicable based on prespecified statistical triggers. Triggers met at interim analysis may also result in intervention dropping. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The core protocol and domain-specific appendices were approved by the University of Pittsburgh Institutional Review Board. A waiver of informed consent was obtained for this trial. Trial results will be announced to the public and healthcare providers once prespecified statistical triggers of interest are reached as described in the core protocol, and the most favourable interventions will then be implemented as a standardised institutional protocol. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04606264.