Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework.

Evolution is generally considered to be unpredictable because genetic variations are known to occur randomly. However, remarkable patterns of repeated convergent evolution are observed, for instance, loss of pigments by organisms living in caves. Analogous phenotypes appear in similar environments, sometimes in response to similar constraints. Alongside randomness, a certain evolutionary determinism also exists, for instance, the selection of particular phenotypes subjected to particular environmental constraints in the "evolutionary funnel." We pursue the idea that eco-evolutionary specialization is in some way determinist. The conceptual framework of phenotypic changes entailing specialization presented in this essay explains how evolution can be predicted. We also discuss how the predictability of evolution could be tested using the case of metabolic specialization through gene losses. We also put forward that microorganisms could be key models to test and possibly make headway evolutionary predictions and knowledge about evolution.

Beyond the Black Queen Hypothesis.

The Black Queen Hypothesis, recently proposed to explain an evolution of dependency based on gene loss, is gaining ground. This paper focuses on how the evolution of dependency transforms interactions and the community. Using agent-based modeling we suggest that species specializing in the consumption of a common good escape competition and therefore favor coexistence. This evolutionary trajectory could open the way for novel long-lasting interactions and a need to revisit the classically accepted assembly rules. Such evolutionary events also reshape the structure and dynamics of communities, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of the common good production. Let Black be the new black!