Real-world evidence evaluation of LDL-C in hospitalized patients: a population-based observational study in the timeframe 2021-2022.

AIMS: European registries and retrospective cohort studies have highlighted the failure to achieve low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) targets in many very high-risk patients. Hospitalized patients are often frail, and frailty is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate LDL-C levels in a real-world inpatient setting, identifying cardiovascular risk categories and highlighting treatment gaps in the implementation of LDL-C management. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study included all adult patients admitted to an Italian hospital between 2021 and 2022 with available LDL-C values during hospitalization. Disease-related real-world data were collected from Hospital Information System using automated data extraction strategies and through the implementation of a patient-centered data repository (the Dyslipidemia Data Mart). We performed assessment of cardiovascular risk profiles, LDL-C target achievement according to the 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines, and use of lipid-lowering therapies (LLT). RESULTS: 13,834 patients were included: 17.15%, 13.72%, 16.82% and 49.76% were low (L), moderate (M), high (H) and very high-risk (VH) patients, respectively. The percentage of on-target patients was progressively lower towards the worst categories (78.79% in L, 58.38% in M, 33.3% in H and 21.37% in VH). Among LLT treated patients, 28.48% were on-target in VH category, 47.60% in H, 69.12% in M and 68.47% in L. We also analyzed the impact of monotherapies and combination therapies on target achievement. CONCLUSIONS: We found relevant gaps in LDL-C management in the population of inpatients, especially in the VH category. Future efforts should be aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk in these subjects.

Incidence of bloodstream infections due to multidrug-resistant pathogens in ordinary wards and intensive care units before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a real-life, retrospective observational study.

PURPOSE: SARS-COV-2 pandemic led to antibiotic overprescription and unprecedented stress on healthcare systems worldwide. Knowing the comparative incident risk of bloodstream infection due to multidrug-resistant pathogens in COVID ordinary wards and intensive care-units may give insights into the impact of COVID-19 on antimicrobial resistance. METHODS: Single-center observational data extracted from a computerized dataset were used to identify all patients who underwent blood cultures from January 1, 2018 to May 15, 2021. Pathogen-specific incidence rates were compared according to the time of admission, patient's COVID status and ward type. RESULTS: Among 14,884 patients for whom at least one blood culture was obtained, a total of 2534 were diagnosed with HA-BSI. Compared to both pre-pandemic and COVID-negative wards, HA-BSI due to S. aureus and Acinetobacter spp. (respectively 0.3 [95% CI 0.21-0.32] and 0.11 [0.08-0.16] new infections per 100 patient-days) showed significantly higher incidence rates, peaking in the COVID-ICU setting. Conversely, E. coli incident risk was 48% lower in COVID-positive vs COVID-negative settings (IRR 0.53 [0.34-0.77]). Among COVID + patients, 48% (n = 38/79) of S. aureus isolates were resistant to methicillin and 40% (n = 10/25) of K. pneumoniae isolates were resistant to carbapenems. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented here indicate that the spectrum of pathogens causing BSI in ordinary wards and intensive care units varied during the pandemic, with the greatest shift experienced by COVID-ICUs. Antimicrobial resistance of selected high-priority bacteria was high in COVID positive settings.

A field strength independent MR radiomics model to predict pathological complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Aim of this study was to develop a generalised radiomics model for predicting pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer patients using pre-CRT T2-weighted images acquired at a 1.5 T and a 3 T scanner. METHODS: In two institutions, 195 patients were scanned: 136 patients were scanned on a 1.5 T MR scanner, 59 patients on a 3 T MR scanner. Gross tumour volumes were delineated on the MR images and 496 radiomic features were extracted, applying the intensity-based (IB) filter. Features were standardised with Z-score normalisation and an initial feature selection was carried out using Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test: The most significant features at 1.5 T and 3 T were selected as main features. Several logistic regression models combining the main features with a third one selected by those resulting significant were elaborated and evaluated in terms of area under curve (AUC). A tenfold cross-validation was repeated 300 times to evaluate the model robustness. RESULTS: Three features were selected: maximum fractal dimension with IB = 0-50, energy and grey-level non-uniformity calculated on the run-length matrix with IB = 0-50. The AUC of the model applied to the whole dataset after cross-validation was 0.72, while values of 0.70 and 0.83 were obtained when 1.5 T and 3 T patients were considered, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model elaborated showed good performance, even when data from patients scanned on 1.5 T and 3 T were merged. This shows that magnetic field intensity variability can be overcome by means of selecting appropriate image features.

Exploring technical issues in personalized medicine: NSCLC survival prediction by quantitative image analysis-usefulness of density correction of volumetric CT data.

The aim of this study was to apply density correction method to the quantitative image analysis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) computed tomography (CT) images, determining its influence on overall survival (OS) prediction of surgically treated patients. Clinicopathological (CP) data and preoperative CT scans, pre- and post-contrast medium (CM) administration, of 57 surgically treated NSCLC patients, were retrospectively collected. After CT volumetric density measurement of primary gross tumour volume (GTV), aorta and tracheal air, density correction was conducted on GTV (reference values: aortic blood and tracheal air). For each resulting data set (combining CM administration and normalization), first-order statistical and textural features were extracted. CP and imaging data were correlated with patients 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, alone and combined (uni-/multivariate logistic regression and Akaike information criterion). Predictive performance was evaluated using the ROC curves and AUC values and compared among non-normalized/normalized data sets (DeLong test). The best predictive values were obtained when combining CP and imaging parameters (AUC values: 1 year 0.72; 3 years 0.82; 5 years 0.78). After normalization resulted an improvement in predicting 1-year OS for some of the grey level size zonebased features (large zone low grey level emphasis) and for the combined CP-imaging model, a worse performance for grey level co-occurrence matrix (cluster prominence and shade) and first-order statistical (range) parameters for 1- and 5-year OS, respectively. The negative performance of cluster prominence in predicting 1-year OS was the only statistically significant result (p value 0.05). Density corrections of volumetric CT data showed an opposite influence on the performance of imaging quantitative features in predicting OS of surgically treated NSCLC patients, even if no statistically significant for almost all predictors.

Delta radiomics for rectal cancer response prediction with hybrid 0.35 T magnetic resonance-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT): a hypothesis-generating study for an innovative personalized medicine approach.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the variation of radiomics features, defined as "delta radiomics", in patients undergoing neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (RCT) for rectal cancer treated with hybrid magnetic resonance (MR)-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT). The delta radiomics features were then correlated with clinical complete response (cCR) outcome, to investigate their predictive power. A total of 16 patients were enrolled, and 5 patients (31%) showed cCR at restaging examinations. T2*/T1 MR images acquired with a hybrid 0.35 T MRgRT unit were considered for this analysis. An imaging acquisition protocol of 6 MR scans per patient was performed: the first MR was acquired at first simulation (t0) and the remaining ones at fractions 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25. Radiomics features were extracted from the gross tumour volume (GTV), and each feature was correlated with the corresponding delivered dose. The variations of each feature during treatment were quantified, and the ratio between the values calculated at different dose levels and the one extracted at t0 was calculated too. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was performed to identify the features whose variation can be predictive of cCR, assessed with a MR acquired 6 weeks after RCT and digital examination. The most predictive feature ratios in cCR prediction were the L_least and glnu ones, calculated at the second week of treatment (22 Gy) with a p value = 0.001. Delta radiomics approach showed promising results and the quantitative analysis of images throughout MRgRT treatment can successfully predict cCR offering an innovative personalized medicine approach to rectal cancer treatment.

Fractal-based radiomic approach to predict complete pathological response after chemo-radiotherapy in rectal cancer.

The aim of this study was to propose a methodology to investigate the tumour heterogeneity and evaluate its ability to predict pathologically complete response (pCR) after chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This approach consisted in normalising the pixel intensities of the tumour and identifying the different sub-regions using an intensity-based thresholding. The spatial organisation of these subpopulations was quantified using the fractal dimension (FD). This approach was implemented in a radiomic workflow and applied to 198 T2-weighted pre-treatment magnetic resonance (MR) images of LARC patients. Three types of features were extracted from the gross tumour volume (GTV): morphological, statistical and fractal features. Feature selection was performed using the Wilcoxon test and a logistic regression model was calculated to predict the pCR probability after CRT. The model was elaborated considering the patients treated in two institutions: Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "Agostino Gemelli" of Rome (173 cases, training set) and University Medical Centre of Maastricht (25 cases, validation set). The results obtained showed that the fractal parameters of the subpopulations have the highest performance in predicting pCR. The predictive model elaborated had an area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0.77 ± 0.07. The model reliability was confirmed by the validation set (AUC = 0.79 ± 0.09). This study suggests that the fractal analysis can play an important role in radiomics, providing valuable information not only about the GTV structure, but also about its inner subpopulations.

Bloodstream infection: Derivation and validation of a reliable and multidimensional prognostic score based on a machine learning model (BLISCO).

BACKGROUND: A bloodstream infection (BSI) prognostic score applicable at the time of blood culture collection is missing. METHODS: In total, 4,327 patients with BSIs were included, divided into a derivation (80%) and a validation dataset (20%). Forty-two variables among host-related, demographic, epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory extracted from the electronic health records were analyzed. Logistic regression was chosen for predictive scoring. RESULTS: The 14-day mortality model included age, body temperature, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory insufficiency, platelet count, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, and consciousness status: a score of ≥ 6 was correlated to a 14-day mortality rate of 15% with a sensitivity of 0.742, a specificity of 0.727, and an area under the curve of 0.783. The 30-day mortality model further included cardiovascular diseases: a score of ≥ 6 predicting 30-day mortality rate of 15% with a sensitivity of 0.691, a specificity of 0.699, and an area under the curve of 0.697. CONCLUSIONS: A quick mortality score could represent a valid support for prognosis assessment and resources prioritizing for patients with BSIs not admitted in the intensive care unit.

A Machine Learning Predictive Model of Bloodstream Infection in Hospitalized Patients.

The aim of the study was to build a machine learning-based predictive model to discriminate between hospitalized patients at low risk and high risk of bloodstream infection (BSI). A Data Mart including all patients hospitalized between January 2016 and December 2019 with suspected BSI was built. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to develop a clinically interpretable machine learning predictive model. The model was trained on 2016-2018 data and tested on 2019 data. A feature selection based on a univariate logistic regression first selected candidate predictors of BSI. A multivariate logistic regression with stepwise feature selection in five-fold cross-validation was applied to express the risk of BSI. A total of 5660 hospitalizations (4026 and 1634 in the training and the validation subsets, respectively) were included. Eleven predictors of BSI were identified. The performance of the model in terms of AUROC was 0.74. Based on the interquartile predicted risk score, 508 (31.1%) patients were defined as being at low risk, 776 (47.5%) at medium risk, and 350 (21.4%) at high risk of BSI. Of them, 14.2% (72/508), 30.8% (239/776), and 64% (224/350) had a BSI, respectively. The performance of the predictive model of BSI is promising. Computational infrastructure and machine learning models can help clinicians identify people at low risk for BSI, ultimately supporting an antibiotic stewardship approach.

A Comprehensive Natural Language Processing Pipeline for the Chronic Lupus Disease.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain a wealth of unstructured patient data, making it challenging for physicians to do informed decisions. In this paper, we introduce a Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for the extraction of therapies, diagnosis, and symptoms from ambulatory EHRs of patients with chronic Lupus disease. We aim to demonstrate the effort of a comprehensive pipeline where a rule-based system is combined with text segmentation, transformer-based topic analysis and clinical ontology, in order to enhance text preprocessing and automate rules' identification. Our approach is applied on a sub-cohort of 56 patients, with a total of 750 EHRs written in Italian language, achieving an Accuracy and an F-score over 97% and 90% respectively, in the three extracted domains. This work has the potential to be integrated with EHR systems to automate information extraction, minimizing the human intervention, and providing personalized digital solutions in the chronic Lupus disease domain.

A distributed feature selection pipeline for survival analysis using radiomics in non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Predictive modelling of cancer outcomes using radiomics faces dimensionality problems and data limitations, as radiomics features often number in the hundreds, and multi-institutional data sharing is ()often unfeasible. Federated learning (FL) and feature selection (FS) techniques combined can help overcome these issues, as one provides the means of training models without exchanging sensitive data, while the other identifies the most informative features, reduces overfitting, and improves model interpretability. Our proposed FS pipeline based on FL principles targets data-driven radiomics FS in a multivariate survival study of non-small cell lung cancer patients. The pipeline was run across datasets from three institutions without patient-level data exchange. It includes two FS techniques, Correlation-based Feature Selection and LASSO regularization, and Cox Proportional-Hazard regression with Overall Survival as endpoint. Trained and validated on 828 patients overall, our pipeline yielded a radiomic signature comprising "intensity-based energy" and "mean discretised intensity". Validation resulted in a mean Harrell C-index of 0.59, showcasing fair efficacy in risk stratification. In conclusion, we suggest a distributed radiomics approach that incorporates preliminary feature selection to systematically decrease the feature set based on data-driven considerations. This aims to address dimensionality challenges beyond those associated with data constraints and interpretability concerns.

Vaccines and Myocardial Injury in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 Infection: the CardioCOVID-Gemelli Study.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury is prevalent among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. However, the role of COVID-19 vaccines in modifying the risk of myocardial injury is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To assess the role of vaccines in modifying the risk of myocardial injury in COVID-19. METHODS: We enrolled COVID-19 patients admitted from March 2021 to February 2022 with known vaccination status and ≥1 assessment of hs-cTnI within 30 days from the admission. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of myocardial injury (hs-cTnI levels >99th percentile upper reference limit). RESULTS: 1019 patients were included (mean age 67.7±14.8 years, 60.8% male, 34.5% vaccinated against COVID-19). Myocardial injury occurred in 145 (14.2%) patients. At multivariate logistic regression analysis, advanced age, chronic kidney disease and hypertension, but not vaccination status, were independent predictors of myocardial injury. In the analysis according to age tertiles distribution, myocardial injury occurred more frequently in the III tertile (≥76 years) compared to other tertiles (I tertile:≤60 years;II tertile:61-75 years) (p<0.001). Moreover, in the III tertile, vaccination was protective against myocardial injury (OR 0.57, CI 95% 0.34-0.94; p=0.03), while a previous history of coronary artery disease was an independent positive predictor. In contrast, in the I tertile, chronic kidney disease (OR 6.94, 95% CI 1.31-36.79, p=0.02) and vaccination (OR 4.44, 95% CI 1.28-15.34, p=0.02) were independent positive predictors of myocardial injury. CONCLUSIONS: In patients ≥76 years, COVID-19 vaccines were protective for the occurrence of myocardial injury, while in patients ≤60 years, myocardial injury was associated with previous COVID-19 vaccination. Further studies are warranted to clarify the underlying mechanisms.

A process mining approach for clinical guidelines compliance: real-world application in rectal cancer.

In the era of evidence-based medicine, several clinical guidelines were developed, supporting cancer management from diagnosis to treatment and aiming to optimize patient care and hospital resources. Nevertheless, individual patient characteristics and organizational factors may lead to deviations from these standard recommendations during clinical practice. In this context, process mining in healthcare constitutes a valid tool to evaluate conformance of real treatment pathways, extracted from hospital data warehouses as event log, to standard clinical guidelines, translated into computer-interpretable formats. In this study we translate the European Society of Medical Oncology guidelines for rectal cancer treatment into a computer-interpretable format using Pseudo-Workflow formalism (PWF), a language already employed in pMineR software library for Process Mining in Healthcare. We investigate the adherence of a real-world cohort of rectal cancer patients treated at Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, data associated with cancer diagnosis and treatment are extracted from hospital databases in 453 patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. PWF enables the easy implementation of guidelines in a computer-interpretable format and visualizations that can improve understandability and interpretability of physicians. Results of the conformance checking analysis on our cohort identify a subgroup of patients receiving a long course treatment that deviates from guidelines due to a moderate increase in radiotherapy dose and an addition of oxaliplatin during chemotherapy treatment. This study demonstrates the importance of PWF to evaluate clinical guidelines adherence and to identify reasons of deviations during a treatment process in a real-world and multidisciplinary setting.

Epidemiology, time course, and risk factors for hospital-acquired bloodstream infections in a cohort of 14,884 patients before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 pandemic has changed in-hospital care and was linked to superimposed infections. Here, we described epidemiology and risk factors for hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HA-BSIs), before and during COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This retrospective, observational, single-center real-life study included 14,884 patients admitted to hospital wards and intensive care units (ICUs) with at least one blood culture, drawn 48 h after admission, either before (pre-COVID, N = 7382) or during pandemic (N = 7502, 1203 COVID-19+ and 6299 COVID-19-). RESULTS: Two thousand two hundred and forty-five HA-BSI were microbiologically confirmed in 14,884 patients (15.1%), significantly higher among COVID-19+ (22.9%; ptrend < .001). COVID-19+ disclosed a significantly higher mortality rate (33.8%; p < .001) and more ICU admissions (29.7%; p < .001). Independent HAI-BSI predictors were: COVID-19 (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.21-1.69; p < .001), hospitalization length (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.03-1.04; p < .001), ICU admission (OR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.19-1.60; p < .001), neoplasms (OR:1.48, 95%CI: 1.34-1.65; p < .001) and kidney failure (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.61-2.04; p < .001). Of note, HA-BSI IRs for Acinetobacter spp. (0.16 × 100 patient-days) and Staphylococcus aureus (0.24 × 100 patient-days) peaked during the interval between first and second pandemic waves in our National context. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HA-BSI admitted before and during pandemic substantially differed. COVID-19 represented a risk factor for HA-BSI, though not confirmed in the sole pandemic period. Some etiologies emerged between pandemic waves, suggesting potential COVID-19 long-term effect on HA-BSIs.

pCR and 2-Year Disease-Free Survival: A Combination of the Two Endpoints as a New Classification for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients-An Updated Pooled Analysis of Eleven International Randomized Trials.

LARC is managed by multimodal treatments whose intensity can be highly modulated. In this context, we need surrogate endpoints to help predict long-term outcomes and better personalize treatments. A previous study identified 2yDFS as a stronger predictor of OS than pCR in LARC patients undergoing neoadjuvant RT. The aim of this pooled analysis was to assess the role of pCR and 2yDFS as surrogate endpoints for OS in a larger cohort. The pooled and subgroup analyses were performed on large rectal cancer randomized trial cohorts who received long-course RT. Our analysis focused on the evaluation of OS in relation to the pCR and 2-year disease status. A total of 4600 patients were analyzed. Four groups were identified according to intermediate outcomes: 12% had both pCR and 2yDFS (the better); 67% achieved 2yDFS but not pCR (the good); 1% had pCR but not 2yDFS; and 20% had neither pCR nor 2yDFS (the bad). The pCR and 2yDFS were favorably associated with OS in the univariate analysis, and 2yDFS maintained a statistically significant association in the multivariate analysis independently of the pCR status. The combination of the pCR and 2yDFS results in a strong predictor of OS, whereas failure to achieve 2yDFS carries a poor prognosis regardless of the pCR status. This new stratification of LARC patients could help design predictive models where the combination of 2yDFS and pCR should be employed as the primary outcome.

Eligibility for the 4 Pharmacological Pillars in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction at Discharge.

Background Guidelines recommend using multiple drugs in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction, but there is a paucity of real-world data on the simultaneous initiation of the 4 pharmacological pillars at discharge after a decompensation event. Methods and Results A retrospective data mart, including patients diagnosed with HF, was implemented. Consecutively admitted patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction were selected through an automated approach and categorized according to the number/type of treatments prescribed at discharge. The prevalence of contraindications and cautions for HF with reduced ejection fraction treatments was systematically assessed. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess predictors of the number of treatments (≥2 versus <2 drugs) prescribed and the risk of rehospitalization. A population of 305 patients with a first episode of HF hospitalization and a diagnosis of HF with reduced ejection fraction (ejection fraction, <40%) was selected. At discharge, 49.2% received 2 current recommended drugs, ß-blockers were prescribed in 93.4%, while a renin-angiotensin system inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was prescribed in 68.2%. A mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist was prescribed in 32.5%, although none of the patients showed contraindications to mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist prescription. A sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor could be prescribed in 71.1% of patients. On the basis of current recommendations, 46.2% could receive the 4 foundational drugs at discharge. Renal dysfunction was associated with <2 foundational drugs prescribed. After adjusting for age and renal function, use of ≥2 drugs was associated with lower risk of rehospitalization during the 30 days after discharge. Conclusions A quadruple therapy could be directly implementable at discharge, potentially providing prognostic advantages. Renal dysfunction was the main prevalent condition limiting this approach.

Fib-4 score is able to predict intra-hospital mortality in 4 different SARS-COV2 waves.

Increased values of the FIB-4 index appear to be associated with poor clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to develop and validate predictive mortality models, using data upon admission of hospitalized patients in four COVID-19 waves between March 2020 and January 2022. A single-center cohort study was performed on consecutive adult patients with Covid-19 admitted at the Fondazione Policlinico Gemelli IRCCS (Rome, Italy). Artificial intelligence and big data processing were used to retrieve data. Patients and clinical characteristics of patients with available FIB-4 data derived from the Gemelli Generator Real World Data (G2 RWD) were used to develop predictive mortality models during the four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. A logistic regression model was applied to the training and test set (75%:25%). The model's performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A total of 4936 patients were included. Hypertension (38.4%), cancer (12.15%) and diabetes (16.3%) were the most common comorbidities. 23.9% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 12.6% had mechanical ventilation. During the study period, 762 patients (15.4%) died. We developed a multivariable logistic regression model on patient data from all waves, which showed that the FIB-4 score > 2.53 was associated with increased mortality risk (OR = 4.53, 95% CI 2.83-7.25; p ≤ 0.001). These data may be useful in the risk stratification at the admission of hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

GENERATOR HEART FAILURE DataMart: An integrated framework for heart failure research.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a multifaceted clinical syndrome characterized by different etiologies, risk factors, comorbidities, and a heterogeneous clinical course. The current model, based on data from clinical trials, is limited by the biases related to a highly-selected sample in a protected environment, constraining the applicability of evidence in the real-world scenario. If properly leveraged, the enormous amount of data from real-world may have a groundbreaking impact on clinical care pathways. We present, here, the development of an HF DataMart framework for the management of clinical and research processes. Methods: Within our institution, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli in Rome (Italy), a digital platform dedicated to HF patients has been envisioned (GENERATOR HF DataMart), based on two building blocks: 1. All retrospective information has been integrated into a multimodal, longitudinal data repository, providing in one single place the description of individual patients with drill-down functionalities in multiple dimensions. This functionality might allow investigators to dynamically filter subsets of patient populations characterized by demographic characteristics, biomarkers, comorbidities, and clinical events (e.g., re-hospitalization), enabling agile analyses of the outcomes by subsets of patients. 2. With respect to expected long-term health status and response to treatments, the use of the disease trajectory toolset and predictive models for the evolution of HF has been implemented. The methodological scaffolding has been constructed in respect of a set of the preferred standards recommended by the CODE-EHR framework. Results: Several examples of GENERATOR HF DataMart utilization are presented as follows: to select a specific retrospective cohort of HF patients within a particular period, along with their clinical and laboratory data, to explore multiple associations between clinical and laboratory data, as well as to identify a potential cohort for enrollment in future studies; to create a multi-parametric predictive models of early re-hospitalization after discharge; to cluster patients according to their ejection fraction (EF) variation, investigating its potential impact on hospital admissions. Conclusion: The GENERATOR HF DataMart has been developed to exploit a large amount of data from patients with HF from our institution and generate evidence from real-world data. The two components of the HF platform might provide the infrastructural basis for a combined patient support program dedicated to continuous monitoring and remote care, assisting patients, caregivers, and healthcare professionals.

Predictive models in SMA II natural history trajectories using machine learning: A proof of concept study.

It is known from previous literature that type II Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) patients generally, after the age of 5 years, presents a steep deterioration until puberty followed by a relative stability, as most abilities have been lost. Although it is possible to identify points of slope indicating early improvement, steep decline and relative stabilizations, there is still a lot of variability within each age group and it's not always possible to predict individual trajectories of progression from age only. The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model based on machine learning using an XGBoost algorithm for regression and report, explore and quantify, in a single centre longitudinal natural history study, the influence of clinical variables on the 6/12-months Hammersmith Motor Functional Scale Expanded score prediction (HFMSE). This study represents the first approach to artificial intelligence and trained models for the prediction of individualized trajectories of HFMSE disease progression using individual characteristics of the patient. The application of this method to larger cohorts may allow to identify different classes of progression, a crucial information at the time of the new commercially available therapies.

Bayesian network structure for predicting local tumor recurrence in rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery.

Background and Purpose: Tumor recurrence, a characteristic of malignant tumors, is the biggest concern for rectal cancer survivors. The epidemiology of the disease calls for a pressing need to improve healthcare quality and patient outcomes. Prediction models such as Bayesian networks, which can probabilistically reason under uncertainty, could assist caregivers with patient management. However, some concerns are associated with the standard approaches to developing these structures in medicine. Therefore, this study aims to compare Bayesian network structures that stem from these two techniques. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 6754 locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients enrolled in 14 international clinical trials. Local tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5-years was defined as the endpoints of interest. Five rectal cancer treating physicians from three countries elicited the expert structure. The algorithmic structure was inferred from the data with the hill-climbing algorithm. Structural performance was assessed with calibration plots and area under the curve values. Results: The area under the curve for the expert structure on the training and validation data was above 0.9 and 0.8, respectively, for all the time points. However, the algorithmic structure had superior predictive performance over the expert structure for all time points of interest. Conclusion: We have developed and internally validated a Bayesian networks structure from experts' opinions, which can predict the risk of a LARC patient developing a tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5 years. Our result shows that the algorithmic-based structures are more performant and less interpretable than expert-based structures.

Myocardial Injury Portends a Higher Risk of Mortality and Long-Term Cardiovascular Sequelae after Hospital Discharge in COVID-19 Survivors.

Background: Cardiovascular sequelae after COVID-19 are frequent. However, the predictors for their occurrence are still unknown. In this study, we aimed to assess whether myocardial injury during COVID-19 hospitalization is associated to CV sequelae and death after hospital discharge. Methods: In this prospective observational study, consecutive patients who were admitted for COVID-19 in a metropolitan COVID-19 hub in Italy, between March 2021 and January 2022, with a ≥ 1 assessment of high sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were included in the study, if they were alive at hospital discharge. Myocardial injury was defined as elevation hs-cTnI > 99th percentile of the upper reference limit. The incidence of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE, including cardiovascular death, admission for acute or chronic coronary syndrome, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke/transient ischemic attack) at follow-up were the primary outcomes. Arrhythmias, inflammatory heart diseases, and/or thrombotic disorders were analyzed as well. Results: Among the 701 COVID-19 survivors (mean age 66.4 ± 14.4 years, 40.2% female), myocardial injury occurred in 75 (10.7%) patients. At a median follow-up of 270 days (IQR 165, 380), all-cause mortality (21.3% vs. 6.1%, p < 0.001), MACCE (25.3% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.001), arrhythmias (9.3% vs. 5.0%, p = 0.034), and inflammatory heart disease (8.0% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001) were more frequent in patients with myocardial injury compared to those without. At multivariate analysis, myocardial injury (HR 1.95 [95% CI:1.05−3.61]), age (HR 1.09 [95% CI:1.06−1.12]), and chronic kidney disease (HR 2.63 [95% CI:1.33−5.21]) were independent predictors of death. Myocardial injury (HR 3.92 [95% CI:2.07−7.42]), age (HR 1.05 [95% CI:1.02−1.08]), and diabetes (HR 2.35 [95% CI:1.25−4.43]) were independent predictors of MACCE. Conclusion: In COVID-19 survivors, myocardial injury during the hospital stay portends a higher risk of mortality and cardiovascular sequelae and could be considered for the risk stratification of COVID-19 sequelae in patients who are successfully discharged.