Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak (Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning.

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Spatial scale and movement behaviour traits control the impacts of habitat fragmentation on individual fitness.

Habitat fragmentation, that is the breaking apart of habitat, can occur at multiple spatial scales at the same time, as a result of different land uses. Individuals of most species spend different amounts of times moving in different modes, during which they cover different distances and experience different fitness impacts. The scale at which fragmentation occurs interacts with the distance that individuals move in a particular mode to affect an individual's ability to find habitat. However, there is little knowledge of the fitness consequences of different scales of fragmentation for individuals with different traits of movement behaviour. This is critical to understand the mechanisms of persistence of different species in fragmented landscapes. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of habitat fragmentation at different scales on the fitness components (reproduction and survival) of individuals with different traits of movement behaviour. We developed a demographic model of individuals that adopt short and tortuous movements within foraging areas (foraging mode) and long and straight movements between foraging areas (searching mode). We considered individuals that adopt different movement modes with varying frequencies, inherently move different searching distances and experience different risks of mortality during searching. We then applied the model within a spatially explicit simulation framework where we varied simultaneously the degree of fragmentation within (fine scale) and between foraging areas (coarse scale). Fine-scale fragmentation had a greater impact on reproduction and survival than coarse-scale fragmentation, for those individuals with a low searching propensity. The impact of fine-scale fragmentation on reproduction and survival interacted with the impact of coarse-scale fragmentation on reproduction and survival, to affect the fitness of individuals with a high searching propensity, large inherent searching distances and high searching mortality rates. Habitat selection strongly mitigated the impact of the scale at which fragmentation occurred on individual fitness. Our findings suggest that the land use to target with conservation actions to reduce fragmentation, such as financial schemes that promote re-vegetation or retention of standing vegetation, depends on the scale at which fragmentation occurs and the movement behaviour traits of the species of conservation concern.

Community motivations to engage in conservation behavior to conserve the Sumatran orangutan.

Community-based conservation programs in developing countries are often based on the assumption that heteronomous motivation (e.g., extrinsic incentives such as economic rewards and pressure or coercion to act) will incite local communities to adopt conservation behaviors. However, this may not be as effective or sustainable as autonomous motivations (e.g., an intrinsic desire to act due to inherent enjoyment or self-identification with a behavior and through freedom of choice). We analyzed the comparative effectiveness of heteronomous versus autonomous approaches to community-based conservation programs through a case study of Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii) conservation in 3 villages in Indonesia. Each village had a different conservation program design. We surveyed people (n = 240) to determine their motivations for and behavior changes relative to orangutan and orangutan habitat (forest) protection. Heteronomous motivations (e.g., income from tourism) led to greater self-reporting of behavior change toward orangutan protection. However, they did not change self-reported behavior toward forest (i.e., orangutan habitat) protection. The most effective approach to creating self-reported behavior change throughout the community was a combination of autonomous and heteronomous motivations. Individuals who were heteronomously motivated to protect the orangutan were more likely to have changed attitudes than to have changed their self-reported behavior. These findings demonstrate that the current paradigm of motivating communities in developing countries to adopt conservation behaviors primarily through monetary incentives and rewards should consider integrating autonomous motivational techniques that promote the intrinsic values of conservation. Such a combination has a greater potential to achieve sustainable and cost-effective conservation outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of using in-depth sociopsychological analyses to inform the design and implementation of community-based conservation programs.

The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel.

Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, <10 ha). Small wildfires recorded by forestry agencies were concentrated within planted forests and near built-up areas, whereas the largest wildfires were located in more remote regions, often associated with military training areas and herbaceous vegetation. We conclude that to better understand wildfire dynamics, consolidation of wildfire databases should be achieved, combining field reports and remote sensing. As nearly all wildfires in Mediterranean landscapes are caused by human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology.

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.

Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

Biogeographical and taxonomic biases in tropical forest fragmentation research.

Despite several decades of research on the effects of fragmentation and habitat change on biodiversity, there remain strong biases in the geographical regions and taxonomic species studied. The knowledge gaps resulting from these biases are of particular concern if the forests most threatened with modification are also those for which the effects of such change are most poorly understood. To quantify the nature and magnitude of such biases, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature on forest fragmentation in the tropics for the period 1980-2012. Studies included focused on any type of response of single species, communities, or assemblages of any taxonomic group to tropical forest fragmentation and on fragmentation-related changes to forests. Of the 853 studies we found in the SCOPUS database, 64% were conducted in the Neotropics, 13% in Asia, 10% in the Afrotropics, and 5% in Australasia. Thus, although the Afrotropics is subject to the highest rates of deforestation globally, it was the most disproportionately poorly studied biome. Significant taxonomic biases were identified. Of the taxonomic groups considered, herpetofauna was the least studied in the tropics, particularly in Africa. Research examining patterns of species distribution was by far the most common type (72%), and work focused on ecological processes (28%) was rare in all biomes, but particularly in the Afrotropics and for fauna. We suggest research efforts be directed toward less-studied biogeographic regions, particularly where the threat of forest fragmentation continues to be high. Increased research investment in the Afrotropics will be important to build knowledge of threats and inform responses in a region where almost no efforts to restore its fragmented landscapes have yet begun and forest protection is arguably most tenuous.

The control of rank-abundance distributions by a competitive despotic species.

Accounting for differences in abundances among species remains a high priority for community ecology. While there has been more than 80 years of work on trying to explain the characteristic S shape of rank-abundance distributions (RADs), there has been recent conjecture that the form may not depend on ecological processes per se but may be a general phenomenon arising in many unrelated disciplines. We show that the RAD shape can be influenced by an ecological process, namely, interference competition. The noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala) is a hyperaggressive, 'despotic' bird that occurs over much of eastern Australia (>10(6) km(2)). We compiled data for bird communities from 350 locations within its range, which were collected using standard avian survey methods. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to show that the RAD shape was much altered when the abundance of the strong interactor exceeded a threshold density; RADs consistently were steeper when the density of the noisy miner ≥2.5 birds ha(-1). The structure of bird communities at sites where the noisy miner exceeded this density was very different from that at sites where the densities fell below the threshold: species richness and Shannon diversity were much reduced, but mean abundances and mean avian biomass per site did not differ substantially.

Using multilevel models to identify drivers of landscape-genetic structure among management areas.

Landscape genetics offers a powerful approach to understanding species' dispersal patterns. However, a central obstacle is to account for ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, while keeping research outcomes applicable to conservation management. We address this challenge by applying a novel multilevel regression approach to model landscape drivers of genetic structure at both the resolution of individuals and at a spatial resolution relevant to management (i.e. local government management areas: LGAs) for the koala (Phascolartos cinereus) in Australia. Our approach allows for the simultaneous incorporation of drivers of landscape-genetic relationships operating at multiple spatial resolutions. Using microsatellite data for 1106 koalas, we show that, at the individual resolution, foliage projective cover (FPC) facilitates high gene flow (i.e. low resistance) until it falls below approximately 30%. Out of six additional land-cover variables, only highways and freeways further explained genetic distance after accounting for the effect of FPC. At the LGA resolution, there was significant variation in isolation-by-resistance (IBR) relationships in terms of their slopes and intercepts. This was predominantly explained by the average resistance distance among LGAs, with a weaker effect of historical forest cover. Rates of recent landscape change did not further explain variation in IBR relationships among LGAs. By using a novel multilevel model, we disentangle the effect of landscape resistance on gene flow at the fine resolution (i.e. among individuals) from effects occurring at coarser resolutions (i.e. among LGAs). This has important implications for our ability to identify appropriate scale-dependent management actions.

Despotic, high-impact species and the subcontinental scale control of avian assemblage structure.

Some species have disproportionate influence on assemblage structure, given their numbers or biomass. Most examples of such "strong interactors" come from small-scale experiments or from observations of the effects of invasive species. There is evidence that entire avian assemblages in open woodlands can be influenced strongly by individual species over very large areas in eastern Australia, with small-bodied species (< 50 g) being adversely affected. We used data from repeated surveys in 371 sites in seven districts across a region from Victoria to Queensland (> 2000 km). A series of linked Bayesian models was used to identify large-bodied (> or = 50 g) bird species that were associated with changes in occurrence and abundance of small-bodied species. One native species, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala; family Meliphagidae), was objectively identified as the sole large-bodied species having similar detrimental effects in all districts, depressing occurrence of 57 of 71 small-bodied species. Adverse effects on abundances of small-bodied species were profound when the Noisy Miner occurred with mean site abundances > or = 1.6 birds/2 ha. The Noisy Miner may be the first species to have been shown to influence whole-of-avifauna assemblage structure through despotic aggressiveness over subcontinental scales. These substantial shifts in occurrence rates and abundances of small-bodied species flow on to alter species abundance distributions of entire assemblages over much of eastern Australia.

Bayesian networks and adaptive management of wildlife habitat.

Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision-support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive-management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief-updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.

An agent-based approach to explore the effect of voluntary mechanisms on land use change: a case in rural Queensland, Australia.

In rural regions, land use changes (LUC) are often the result of the decision-making of individual farmers. To influence this decision-making, compulsory and voluntary mechanisms are implemented. However, farmers' decision-making is a heterogeneous process that depends on their ability and willingness to take certain decisions. Discrepancies between farmers' ability and willingness and the design of voluntary mechanisms occur frequently. This makes it necessary to understand how farmers' participation in these mechanisms can affect LUC. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate an agent-based approach to analyse and explore how voluntary mechanisms can influence LUC processes in rural regions. This approach was applied to a rural region in Australia, where clearing of native vegetation has occurred for agricultural development. Historical land cover data and semi-structured interviews were used to parameterise an agent-based model. Factors that influence farmers' ability and willingness to participate in these mechanisms were identified. Three scenarios were simulated with the model to explore how the implementation of different voluntary mechanisms can affect the landscape structure of the region. This paper identifies how the diversity of farmers' decision-making can influence the landscape structure in the region. The advantages and limitations of an agent-based approach in relation to LUC research and policy are discussed.

Assessing ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies: The need for a more mechanistic approach.

Positive (synergistic) and negative (trade-off) relationships among ecosystem services are influenced by drivers of change, such as policy interventions and environmental variability, and the mechanisms that link these drivers to ecosystem service outcomes. Failure to account for these drivers and mechanisms can result in poorly informed management decisions and reduced ecosystem service provision. Here, we review the literature to determine the extent to which drivers and mechanisms are considered in assessments of ecosystem service relationships. We show that only 19% of assessments explicitly identify the drivers and mechanisms that lead to ecosystem service relationships. While the proportion of assessments considering drivers has increased over time, most of these studies only implicitly consider the drivers of ecosystem service relationships. We recommend more assessments explicitly identify drivers of trade-offs and synergies, which can be achieved through a greater uptake of causal inference and process-based models, to ensure effective management of ecosystem services.

Integrating design thinking with sustainability science: a Research through Design approach.

Design disciplines have a long history of creating well-integrated solutions to challenges which are complex, uncertain and contested by multiple stakeholders. Society faces similar challenges in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals, so design methods hold much potential. While principles of good design are well established, there has been limited integration of design thinking with sustainability science. To advance this integration, we examine the process of designing MetaMAP: an interactive graphic tool for collaborating to understand social-ecological systems and design well-integrated solutions. MetaMAP was created using Research through Design methods which integrate creative and scientific thinking. By applying design thinking, researchers and practitioners from different backgrounds undertook multiple cycles of problem framing, solution development, testing and reflection. The testing was highly collaborative involving over 150 people from diverse disciplines in workshops, case studies, interviews and critique. Reflecting on this process, we discuss design principles and opportunities for integrating design thinking with sustainability science to help achieve Sustainable Development Goals.

Identification of fine scale and landscape scale drivers of urban aboveground carbon stocks using high-resolution modeling and mapping.

Urban areas are sources of land use change and CO2 emissions that contribute to global climate change. Despite this, assessments of urban vegetation carbon stocks often fail to identify important landscape-scale drivers of variation in urban carbon, especially the potential effects of landscape structure variables at different spatial scales. We combined field measurements with Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data to build high-resolution models of woody plant aboveground carbon across the urban portion of Brisbane, Australia, and then identified landscape scale drivers of these carbon stocks. First, we used LiDAR data to quantify the extent and vertical structure of vegetation across the city at high resolution (5×5m). Next, we paired this data with aboveground carbon measurements at 219 sites to create boosted regression tree models and map aboveground carbon across the city. We then used these maps to determine how spatial variation in land cover/land use and landscape structure affects these carbon stocks. Foliage densities above 5m height, tree canopy height, and the presence of ground openings had the strongest relationships with aboveground carbon. Using these fine-scale relationships, we estimate that 2.2±0.4 TgC are stored aboveground in the urban portion of Brisbane, with mean densities of 32.6±5.8MgCha-1 calculated across the entire urban land area, and 110.9±19.7MgCha-1 calculated within treed areas. Predicted carbon densities within treed areas showed strong positive relationships with the proportion of surrounding tree cover and how clumped that tree cover was at both 1km2 and 1ha resolutions. Our models predict that even dense urban areas with low tree cover can have high carbon densities at fine scales. We conclude that actions and policies aimed at increasing urban carbon should focus on those areas where urban tree cover is most fragmented.

The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems.

As the terrestrial human footprint continues to expand, the amount of native forest that is free from significant damaging human activities is in precipitous decline. There is emerging evidence that the remaining intact forest supports an exceptional confluence of globally significant environmental values relative to degraded forests, including imperilled biodiversity, carbon sequestration and storage, water provision, indigenous culture and the maintenance of human health. Here we argue that maintaining and, where possible, restoring the integrity of dwindling intact forests is an urgent priority for current global efforts to halt the ongoing biodiversity crisis, slow rapid climate change and achieve sustainability goals. Retaining the integrity of intact forest ecosystems should be a central component of proactive global and national environmental strategies, alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and promoting reforestation.

Habitat structure is more important than vegetation composition for local-level management of native terrestrial reptile and small mammal species living in urban remnants: A case study from Brisbane, Australia.

Abstract As urban areas continue to expand and replace natural and agricultural landscapes, the ability to manage and conserve native wildlife within urban environments is becoming increasingly important. To do so we first need to understand species' responses to local-level habitat attributes in order to inform the decision-making process and on-ground conservation actions. Patterns in the occurrence of native terrestrial reptile and small mammal species in 59 sites located in remnant urban habitat fragments of Brisbane City were assessed against local-level environmental characteristics of each site. Cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling ordination, and principal axis correlation were used to investigate relationships between species' occurrences and environmental characteristics. Native reptiles were most strongly associated with the presence of termite mounds, a high amount of fallen woody material, and a moderate amount of weed cover. Native small mammals were most strongly associated with the presence of grass trees (Xanthorrhoea spp.), and both reptiles and small mammals were negatively influenced by increased soil compaction. Significant floristic characteristics were considered to be important as structural, rather than compositional, habitat elements. Therefore, habitat structure, rather than vegetation composition, appears to be most important for determining native, terrestrial reptile and small mammal species assemblages in urban forest fragments. We discuss the management implications in relation to human disturbances and local-level management of urban remnants.

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.