Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study.

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

Current and projected global distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the world's worst plant pathogens.

Globally, Phytophthora cinnamomi is listed as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species and active management is required to reduce impact and prevent spread in both horticulture and natural ecosystems. Conversely, there are regions thought to be suitable for the pathogen where no disease is observed. We developed a climex model for the global distribution of P. cinnamomi based on the pathogen's response to temperature and moisture and by incorporating extensive empirical evidence on the presence and absence of the pathogen. The climex model captured areas of climatic suitability where P. cinnamomi occurs that is congruent with all available records. The model was validated by the collection of soil samples from asymptomatic vegetation in areas projected to be suitable by the model for which there were few records. DNA was extracted, and the presence or absence of P. cinnamomi was determined by high-throughput sequencing (HTS). While not detected using traditional isolation methods, HTS detected P. cinnamomi at higher elevations in eastern Australia and central Tasmania as projected by the climex model. Further support for the climex model was obtained using the large data set from south-west Australia where the proportion of positive records in an area is related to the Ecoclimatic Index value for the same area. We provide for the first time a comprehensive global map of the current P. cinnamomi distribution, an improved climex model of the distribution, and a projection to 2080 of the distribution with predicted climate change. This information provides the basis for more detailed regional-scale modelling and supports risk assessment for governments to plan management of this important soil-borne plant pathogen.

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

Spatial genetic structure reflects extensive clonality, low genotypic diversity and habitat fragmentation in Grevillea renwickiana (Proteaceae), a rare, sterile shrub from south-eastern Australia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The association of clonality, polyploidy and reduced fecundity has been identified as an extinction risk for clonal plants. Compromised sexual reproduction limits both their ability to adapt to new conditions and their capacity to disperse to more favourable environments. Grevillea renwickiana is a prostrate, putatively sterile shrub reliant on asexual reproduction. Dispersal is most likely limited by the rate of clonal expansion via rhizomes. The nine localized populations constituting this species provide an opportunity to examine the extent of clonality and spatial genotypic diversity to evaluate its evolutionary prospects. METHODS: Ten microsatellite loci were used to compare genetic and genotypic diversity across all sites with more intensive sampling at four locations (n = 185). The spatial distribution of genotypes and chloroplast DNA haplotypes based on the trnQ-rps16 intergenic spacer region were compared. Chromosome counts provided a basis for examining genetic profiles inconsistent with diploidy. KEY RESULTS: Microsatellite analysis identified 46 multilocus genotypes (MLGs) in eight multilocus clonal lineages (MLLs). MLLs are not shared among sites, with two exceptions. Spatial autocorrelation was significant to 1·6 km. Genotypic richness ranged from 0 to 0·33. Somatic mutation is likely to contribute to minor variation between MLGs within clonal lineages. The eight chloroplast haplotypes identified were correlated with eight MLLs defined by ordination and generally restricted to single populations. Triploidy is the most likely reason for tri-allelic patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Grevillea renwickiana comprises few genetic individuals. Sterility has most likely been induced by triploidy. Extensive lateral suckering in long-lived sterile clones facilitates the accumulation of somatic mutations, which contribute to the measured genetic diversity. Genetic conservation value may not be a function of population size. Despite facing evolutionary stagnation, sterile clonal species can play a vital role in mitigating ecological instability as floras respond to rapid environmental change.

The efficacy of a range of hygiene measures for boot cleaning to protect natural vegetation from Phytophthora cinnamomi.

Phytophthora cinnamomi is an oomycete found in the soil and capable of invading the roots of a wide range of host plants globally, potentially killing them and affecting the ecosystems they inhabit. This pathogen is often inadvertently dispersed in natural vegetation on the footwear of humans. A range of equipment is often provided or recommended to be carried for cleaning footwear in places where P. cinnamomi poses a threat to biodiversity. These are typically a brush for mechanically removing soil and/or a disinfectant for killing the pathogen. Despite their widespread use, to our knowledge, the majority of hygiene measures have not been experimentally tested for their efficacy. In the current study, we tested whether two types of brush and the two most widely used disinfectants (70% methylated spirits and benzalkonium chloride) were effective in removing the pathogen from boots. We tested the brushes and disinfectants in two soil types and two moisture levels. All hygiene measures were found to be better than doing nothing, although some were only effective with sandy or dry soils. Benzalkonium chloride was largely ineffective as a spray but highly effective when used in a footbath. Brushing did not improve cleaning when used with 70% methylated spirits. None of the hygiene measures was completely effective for cleaning boots that had been in wet loamy soil. Our findings have important implications for management of this threat because some recommended hygiene practices are not doing what they claim.

Rapid upwards spread of non-native plants in mountains across continents.

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems.

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients.

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented.

Phytophthora species isolated from alpine and sub-alpine regions of Australia, including the description of two new species; Phytophthora cacuminis sp. nov and Phytophthora oreophila sp. nov.

Plant deaths had been observed in the sub-alpine and alpine areas of Australia. Although no detailed aetiology was established, patches of dying vegetation and progressive thinning of canopy suggested the involvement of root pathogens. Baiting of roots and associated rhizosphere soil from surveys conducted in mountainous regions New South Wales and Tasmania resulted in the isolation of eight Phytophthora species; Phytophthora cactorum, Phytophthora cryptogea, Phytophthora fallax, Phytophthora gonapodyides, Phytophthora gregata, Phytophthora pseudocryptogea, and two new species, Phytophthora cacuminis sp. nov and Phytophthora oreophila sp. nov, described here. P. cacuminis sp. nov is closely related to P. fallax, and was isolated from asymptomatic Eucalyptus coccifera and species from the family Proteaceae in Mount Field NP in Tasmania. P. oreophila sp. nov, was isolated from a disturbed alpine herbfield in Kosciuzsko National Park. The low cardinal temperature for growth of the new species suggest they are well adapted to survive under these conditions, and should be regarded as potential threats to the diverse flora of sub-alpine/alpine ecosystems. P. gregata and P. cryptogea have already been implicated in poor plant health. Tests on a range of alpine/subalpine plant species are now needed to determine their pathogenicity, host range and invasive potential.