Experience of social harms among female sex workers following HIV self-test distribution in Malawi: results of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, female sex workers (FSW) have high HIV incidence and regular testing is suggested. HIV self-testing (HIVST) is a safe and acceptable alternative to standard testing services. This study assessed; whether social harms were more likely to be reported after HIVST distribution to FSW by peer distributors than after facility-based HIV testing and whether FSW regretted HIVST use or experienced associated relationship problems. METHODS: Peer HIVST distributors, who were FSW, were recruited in Blantyre district, Malawi between February and July 2017. Among HIVST recipients a prospective cohort was recruited. Interviews were conducted at baseline and at end-line, 3 months later. Participants completed daily sexual activity diaries. End-line data were analysed using logistic regression to assess whether regret or relationship problems were associated with HIVST use. Sexual activity data were analysed using Generalised Estimating Equations to assess whether HIVST use was temporally associated with an increase in social harms. RESULTS: Of 265 FSW recruited and offered HIVST, 131 completed both interviews. Of these, 31/131(23.7%) reported initial regret after HIVST use, this reduced to 23/131(17.6%) at the 3-month follow-up. Relationship problems were reported by 12/131(9.2%). Regret about HIVST use was less commonly reported in those aged 26-35 years compared to those aged 16-25 years (OR immediate regret-0.40 95% CI 0.16-1.01) (OR current regret-0.22 95% CI 0.07 - 0.71) and was not associated with the HIVST result. There was limited evidence that reports of verbal abuse perpetrated by clients in the week following HIVST use were greater than when there was no testing in the preceding week. There was no evidence for increases in any other social harms. There was some evidence of coercion to test, most commonly initiated by the peer distributor. CONCLUSIONS: Little evidence was found that the peer distribution model was associated with increased levels of social harms, however programmes aimed at reaching FSW need to carefully consider possible unintended consequences of their service delivery approaches, including the potential for peer distributors to coerce individuals to test or disclose their test results and alternative distribution models may need to be considered.

Lessons learned from implementation of four HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution models in Zambia: applying the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to understand impact of contextual factors on implementation.

BACKGROUND: Although Zambia has integrated HIV-self-testing (HIVST) into its Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) regulatory frameworks, few best practices to optimize the use of HIV self-testing to increase testing coverage have been documented. We conducted a prospective case study to understand contextual factors guiding implementation of four HIVST distribution models to inform scale-up in Zambia. METHODS: We used the qualitative case study method to explore user and provider experiences with four HIVST distribution models (two secondary distribution models in Antenatal Care (ANC) and Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) clinics, community-led, and workplace) to understand factors influencing HIVST distribution. Participants were purposefully selected based on their participation in HIVST and on their ability to provide rich contextual experience of the distribution models. Data were collected using observations (n = 31), group discussions (n = 10), and in-depth interviews (n = 77). Data were analyzed using the thematic approach and aligned to the four Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) domains. RESULTS: Implementation of the four distribution models was influenced by an interplay of outer and inner setting factors. Inadequate compensation and incentives for distributors may have contributed to distributor attrition in the community-led and workplace HIVST models. Stockouts, experienced at the start of implementation in the secondary-distribution and community-led distribution models often disrupted distribution. The existence of policy and practices aided integration of HIVST in the workplace. External factors complimented internal factors for successful implementation. For instance, despite distributor attrition leading to excessive workload, distributors often multi-tasked to keep up with demand for kits, even though distribution points were geographically widespread in the workplace, and to a less extent in the community-led models. Use of existing communication platforms such as lunchtime and safety meetings to promote and distribute kits, peers to support distributors, reduction in trips by distributors to replenish stocks, increase in monetary incentives and reorganisation of stakeholder roles proved to be good adaptations. CONCLUSION: HIVST distribution was influenced by a combination of contextual factors in variable ways. Understanding how the factors interacted in real world settings informed adaptations to implementation devised to minimize disruptions to distribution.

Determinants of stillbirths in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have high stillbirth rates compared with high-income countries, yet research on risk factors for stillbirth in SSA remain scant. OBJECTIVES: To identify the modifiable risk factors of stillbirths in SSA and investigate their strength of association using a systematic review. SEARCH STRATEGY: CINAHL Plus, EMBASE, Global Health and MEDLINE databases were searched for literature. SELECTION CRITERIA: Observational population- and facility-level studies exploring stillbirth risk factors, published in 2013-2019 were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: A narrative synthesis of data was undertaken and the potential risk factors were classified into subgroups. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies were included, encompassing 20 264 stillbirths. The risk factors were categorised as: maternal antepartum factors (0-4 antenatal care visits, multiple gestations, hypertension, birth interval of >3 years, history of perinatal death); socio-economic factors (maternal lower wealth index and basic education, advanced maternal age, grand multiparity of ≥5); intrapartum factors (direct obstetric complication); fetal factors (low birthweight and gestational age of <37 weeks) and health systems factors (poor quality of antenatal care, emergency referrals, ill-equipped facility). The proportion of unexplained stillbirths remained very high. No association was found between stillbirths and body mass index, diabetes, distance from the facility or HIV. CONCLUSIONS: The overall quality of evidence was low, as many studies were facility based and did not adjust for confounding factors. This review identified preventable risk factors for stillbirth. Focused programmatic strategies to improve antenatal care, emergency obstetric care, maternal perinatal education, referral and outreach systems, and birth attendant training should be developed. More population-based, high-quality research is needed.

Feasibility and acceptability of using biometric fingerprinting to track migrations and support retention in HIV prevention research in fishing population in East Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Fishing populations constitute a suitable key population amongst which to conduct HIV prevention trials due to very high HIV prevalence and incidence, however, these are highly mobile populations. We determined the feasibility and acceptability of using fingerprinting and geographical positioning systems to describe mobility patterns and retention among fisherfolks on the shoreline of Lake Victoria in South-western Uganda. METHODS: Between August 2015 and January 2017, two serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted during which fingerprinting of all residents aged 18-30 years on the shoreline of Lake Victoria was done. A mapper moving ahead of the survey team, produced village maps and took coordinates of every household. These were accessed by the survey team that assigned household and individual unique identifiers (ID) and collected demographic data. Using the assigned IDs, individuals were enrolled and their fingerprints scanned. The fingerprinting was repeated 6 months later in order to determine the participant's current household. If it was different from that at baseline, a new household ID was assigned which was used to map migrations both within and between villages. RESULTS: At both rounds, over 99% accepted to be fingerprinted. No fingerprinting faults were recorded at baseline and the level was under 1% at round two. Over 80% of the participants were seen at round two and of these, 16.3%, had moved to a new location whilst the majority, 85%, stayed within the same village. Movements between villages were mainly observed for those resident in large villages. Those who did not consider a fishing village to be their permanent home were less likely to be migrants than permanent residents (adjusted odds ratio = 0.37, 95%CI:0.15-0.94). CONCLUSION: Use of fingerprinting in fishing populations is feasible and acceptable. It is possible to track this mobile population for clinical trials or health services using this technology since most movements could be traced within and between villages.

Birthweight: EN-BIRTH multi-country validation study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate birthweight is critical to inform clinical care at the individual level and tracking progress towards national/global targets at the population level. Low birthweight (LBW) < 2500 g affects over 20.5 million newborns annually. However, data are lacking and may be affected by heaping. This paper evaluates birthweight measurement within the Every Newborn Birth Indicators Research Tracking in Hospitals (EN-BIRTH) study. METHODS: The EN-BIRTH study took place in five hospitals in Bangladesh, Nepal and Tanzania (2017-2018). Clinical observers collected time-stamped data (gold standard) for weighing at birth. We compared accuracy for two data sources: routine hospital registers and women's report at exit interview survey. We calculated absolute differences and individual-level validation metrics. We analysed birthweight coverage and quality gaps including timing and heaping. Qualitative data explored barriers and enablers for routine register data recording. RESULTS: Among 23,471 observed births, 98.8% were weighed. Exit interview survey-reported weighing coverage was 94.3% (90.2-97.3%), sensitivity 95.0% (91.3-97.8%). Register-reported coverage was 96.6% (93.2-98.9%), sensitivity 97.1% (94.3-99%). Routine registers were complete (> 98% for four hospitals) and legible > 99.9%. Weighing of stillbirths varied by hospital, ranging from 12.5-89.0%. Observed LBW rate was 15.6%; survey-reported rate 14.3% (8.9-20.9%), sensitivity 82.9% (75.1-89.4%), specificity 96.1% (93.5-98.5%); register-recorded rate 14.9%, sensitivity 90.8% (85.9-94.8%), specificity 98.5% (98-99.0%). In surveys, "don't know" responses for birthweight measured were 4.7%, and 2.9% for knowing the actual weight. 95.9% of observed babies were weighed within 1 h of birth, only 14.7% with a digital scale. Weight heaping indices were around two-fold lower using digital scales compared to analogue. Observed heaping was almost 5% higher for births during the night than day. Survey-report further increased observed birthweight heaping, especially for LBW babies. Enablers to register birthweight measurement in qualitative interviews included digital scale availability and adequate staffing. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital registers captured birthweight and LBW prevalence more accurately than women's survey report. Even in large hospitals, digital scales were not always available and stillborn babies not always weighed. Birthweight data are being captured in hospitals and investment is required to further improve data quality, researching of data flow in routine systems and use of data at every level.

Impact of WHO guidelines on trends in HIV testing and ART initiation among children living with HIV in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: About 13 years since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children living with HIV (CLHIV) in Zambia, HIV/AIDS testing and treatment guidelines for children have evolved over the years with limited documentation of long-term trends in the numbers testing HIV positive and initiating ART. We examined trends in HIV testing and ART initiation in Zambia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected patient level data from 496 health facilities across Zambia. We used Poisson regression to derive incident rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for background characteristics and used a Cuzick non-parametric test for trends to test the 13-year trends. Median time from testing to ART initiation in days and incidence rates were derived using life tables in survival analysis. We used multi-level random effects Poisson regression model to determine variations in time from HIV testing to ART initiation by facility. RESULTS: Overall, the cumulative proportion of the children who tested positive and initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART for HIV) from 2004 to 2017 was 69% (n = 99 592). During the period under review proportions of ART initiation increased from 52% in 2004-2006 to 97% in 2016-2017 (P < 0.001) and time from testing to ART initiation reduced from a median of 17 days IQR (1-161) in 2004 to one day IQR (1-14), P < 0.001 in 2016-2017. CLHIV were 15 times more likely to be initiated on ART in 2016-17 compared to period 2004-6 (IRR = 15.2, 95% CI 14.7-15.7). Time to ART initiation increased with age and was higher in rural health facilities compared to urban facilities. About 11% of the variability in time to ART initiation in children could be attributed to differences between facilities. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial increase in ART initiation and reduction in time to ART initiation among CLHIV identified in this study, reflects improvements in the paediatric HIV programme in Zambia in relation to health care delivery and adherence to national testing and treatment guidelines that were adapted from WHO guidelines. However, age-related differentials in rates of ART initiation suggests that urgent interventions are needed to sustain and further improve programme performance.

From policy to practice: exploring the implementation of antiretroviral therapy access and retention policies between 2013 and 2016 in six sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the implementation of 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) consolidated guidelines on the use of antiretroviral drugs for treating and preventing HIV infection at the facility level provides important lessons for the roll-out of future HIV policies. METHODS: A national policy review was conducted in six sub-Saharan African countries to map the inclusion of the 2013 WHO HIV treatment recommendations. Twenty indicators of policy adoption were selected to measure ART access (n = 12) and retention (n = 8). Two sequential cross-sectional surveys were conducted in facilities between 2013/2015 (round 1) and 2015/2016 (round 2) from ten health and demographic surveillance sites in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Using standardised questionnaires, facility managers were interviewed. Descriptive analyses were used to assess the change in the proportion of facilities that implemented these policy indicators between rounds. RESULTS: Although, expansion of ART access was explicitly stated in all countries' policies, most lacked policies that enhanced retention. Overall, 145 facilities were included in both rounds. The proportion of facilities that initiated ART at CD4 counts of 500 or less cells/µL increased between round 1 and 2 from 12 to 68%, and facilities initiating patients on 2013 WHO recommended ART regimen increased from 42 to 87%. There were no changes in the proportion of facilities reporting stock-outs of first-line ART in the past year (18 to 11%) nor in the provision of three-month supply of ART (43 to 38%). None of the facilities provided community-based ART delivery. CONCLUSION: The increase in ART initiation CD4 threshold in most countries, and substantial improvements made in the provision of WHO recommended first-line ART regimens demonstrates that rapid adoption of WHO recommendations is possible. However, improved logistics and resources and/or changes in policy are required to further minimise ART stock-outs and allow lay cadres to dispense ART in the community. Increased efforts are needed to offer longer durations between clinic visits, a strategy purported to improve retention. These changes will be important as countries move to implement the revised 2015 WHO guidelines to initiate all HIV positive people onto ART regardless of their immune status.

Underutilisation of routinely collected data in the HIV programme in Zambia: a review of quantitatively analysed peer-reviewed articles.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which routinely collected HIV data from Zambia has been used in peer-reviewed published articles remains unexplored. This paper is an analysis of peer-reviewed articles that utilised routinely collected HIV data from Zambia within six programme areas from 2004 to 2014. METHODS: Articles on HIV, published in English, listed in the Directory of open access journals, African Journals Online, Google scholar, and PubMed were reviewed. Only articles from peer-reviewed journals, that utilised routinely collected data and included quantitative data analysis methods were included. Multi-country studies involving Zambia and another country, where the specific results for Zambia were not reported, as well as clinical trials and intervention studies that did not take place under routine care conditions were excluded, although community trials which referred patients to the routine clinics were included. Independent extraction was conducted using a predesigned data collection form. Pooled analysis was not possible due to diversity in topics reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 69 articles were extracted for review. Of these, 7 were excluded. From the 62 articles reviewed, 39 focused on HIV treatment and retention in care, 15 addressed prevention of mother-to-child transmission, 4 assessed social behavioural change, and 4 reported on voluntary counselling and testing. In our search, no articles were found on condom programming or voluntary male medical circumcision. The most common outcome measures reported were CD4+ count, clinical failure or mortality. The population analysed was children in 13 articles, women in 16 articles, and both adult men and women in 33 articles. CONCLUSION: During the 10 year period of review, only 62 articles were published analysing routinely collected HIV data in Zambia. Serious consideration needs to be made to maximise the utility of routinely collected data, and to benefit from the funds and efforts to collect these data. This could be achieved with government support of operational research and publication of findings based on routinely collected Zambian HIV data.

A Successful Failure: Missing the MDG4 Target for Under-Five Mortality in South Africa.

Reflecting on under-five mortality, Peter Byass and colleagues consider how some countries may fail to meet millennium development goal targets despite making considerable advances.

Performance of four computer-coded verbal autopsy methods for cause of death assignment compared with physician coding on 24,000 deaths in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Physician-coded verbal autopsy (PCVA) is the most widely used method to determine causes of death (CODs) in countries where medical certification of death is uncommon. Computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) methods have been proposed as a faster and cheaper alternative to PCVA, though they have not been widely compared to PCVA or to each other. METHODS: We compared the performance of open-source random forest, open-source tariff method, InterVA-4, and the King-Lu method to PCVA on five datasets comprising over 24,000 verbal autopsies from low- and middle-income countries. Metrics to assess performance were positive predictive value and partial chance-corrected concordance at the individual level, and cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy and cause-specific mortality fraction error at the population level. RESULTS: The positive predictive value for the most probable COD predicted by the four CCVA methods averaged about 43% to 44% across the datasets. The average positive predictive value improved for the top three most probable CODs, with greater improvements for open-source random forest (69%) and open-source tariff method (68%) than for InterVA-4 (62%). The average partial chance-corrected concordance for the most probable COD predicted by the open-source random forest, open-source tariff method and InterVA-4 were 41%, 40% and 41%, respectively, with better results for the top three most probable CODs. Performance generally improved with larger datasets. At the population level, the King-Lu method had the highest average cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy across all five datasets (91%), followed by InterVA-4 (72% across three datasets), open-source random forest (71%) and open-source tariff method (54%). CONCLUSIONS: On an individual level, no single method was able to replicate the physician assignment of COD more than about half the time. At the population level, the King-Lu method was the best method to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions, though it does not assign individual CODs. Future testing should focus on combining different computer-coded verbal autopsy tools, paired with PCVA strengths. This includes using open-source tools applied to larger and varied datasets (especially those including a random sample of deaths drawn from the population), so as to establish the performance for age- and sex-specific CODs.

Changing use of traditional healthcare amongst those dying of HIV related disease and TB in rural South Africa from 2003 - 2011: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2011 there were 5.5 million HIV infected people in South Africa and 71% of those requiring antiretroviral therapy (ART) received it. The effective integration of traditional medical practitioners and biomedical providers in HIV prevention and care has been demonstrated. However concerns remain that the use of traditional treatments for HIV-related disease may lead to pharmacokinetic interactions between herbal remedies and ART drugs and delay ART initiation. Here we analyse the changing prevalence and determinants of traditional healthcare use amongst those dying of HIV-related disease, pulmonary tuberculosis and other causes in a rural South African community between 2003 and 2011. ART was made available in this area in the latter part of this period. METHODS: Data was collected during household visits and verbal autopsy interviews. InterVA-4 was used to assign causes of death. Spatial analyses of the distribution of traditional healthcare use were performed. Logistic regression models were developed to test associations of determinants with traditional healthcare use. RESULTS: There were 5929 deaths in the study population of which 47.7% were caused by HIV-related disease or pulmonary tuberculosis (HIV/AIDS and TB). Traditional healthcare use declined for all deaths, with higher levels throughout for those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB than for those dying of other causes. In 2003-2005, sole use of biomedical treatment was reported for 18.2% of HIV/AIDS and TB deaths and 27.2% of other deaths, by 2008-2011 the figures were 49.9% and 45.3% respectively. In bivariate analyses, higher traditional healthcare use was associated with Mozambican origin, lower education levels, death in 2003-2005 compared to the later time periods, longer illness duration and moderate increases in prior household mortality. In the multivariate model only country of origin, time period and illness duration remained associated. CONCLUSIONS: There were large decreases in reported traditional healthcare use and increases in the sole use of biomedical treatment amongst those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB. No associations between socio-economic position, age or gender and the likelihood of traditional healthcare use were seen. Further qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to assess whether these figures reflect trends in healthcare use amongst the entire population and the reasons for the temporal changes identified.

Improving early infant diagnosis for HIV-exposed infants using unmanned aerial vehicles for blood sample transportation in Conakry, Guinea: a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early infant diagnosis (EID) for HIV-exposed infants is essential due to high mortality during the first months of their lives. In Conakry (Guinea), timely EID is difficult as traffic congestion prevents the rapid transport of blood samples to the central laboratory. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of transporting EID blood samples by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), also known as drones. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using Monte Carlo simulations, we conducted a cost-effectiveness comparative analysis between EID blood samples transportation by on-demand UAV transportation versus the baseline scenario (ie, van with irregular collection schedules) and compared with a hypothetic on-demand motorcycle transportation system. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life-year gained was computed. Simulation models included parameters such as consultation timing (eg, time of arrival), motorcycle and UAV characteristics, weather and traffic conditions. Over the 5-year period programme, the UAV and motorcycle strategies were able to save a cumulative additional 834.8 life-years (585.1-1084.5) and 794.7 life-years (550.3-1039.0), respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. The ICER per life-year gained found were US$535 for the UAV strategy versus baseline scenario, US$504 for the motorcycle strategy versus baseline scenario and US$1137 per additional life-year gained for the UAV versus motorcycle strategy. Respectively, those ICERs represented 44.8%, 42.2% and 95.2% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Guinea-that is, US$1194. CONCLUSION: Compared with the baseline strategy, both transportation of EID blood samples by UAVs or motorcycles had a cost per additional life-year gained below half of the national GDP per capita and could be seen as cost-effective in Conakry. A UAV strategy can save more lives than a motorcycle one although the cost needed per additional life-year gained might need to consider alongside budget impact and feasibility considerations.

Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging due to different population sizes and structures. METHODS: We describe the development of a new app for the real-time visualisation of COVID-19 data in Brazil at the municipality level. In the CLIC-Brazil app, daily updates of case and death data are downloaded, age standardised and used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt ). We show how such platforms can perform real-time regression analyses to identify factors associated with the rate of initial spread and early reproduction number. We also use survival methods to predict the likelihood of occurrence of a new peak of COVID-19 incidence. FINDINGS: After an initial introduction in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states in early March 2020, the epidemic spread to northern states and then to highly populated coastal regions and the Central-West. Municipalities with higher metrics of social development experienced earlier arrival of COVID-19 (decrease of 11·1 days [95% CI:8.9,13.2] in the time to arrival for each 10% increase in the social development index). Differences in the initial epidemic intensity (mean Rt ) were largely driven by geographic location and the date of local onset. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates that platforms that monitor, standardise and analyse the epidemiological data at a local level can give useful real-time insights into outbreak dynamics that can be used to better adapt responses to the current and future pandemics. FUNDING: This project was supported by a Medical Research Council UK (MRC-UK) -São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0).

Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation. METHODS: Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time. RESULTS: Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably. CONCLUSIONS: VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.

Effect of peer-distributed HIV self-test kits on demand for biomedical HIV prevention in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a three-armed cluster-randomised trial comparing social networks versus direct delivery.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We investigated two peer distribution models of HIV self-testing (HIVST) in HIV prevention demand creation compared with trained young community members (peer navigators). METHODS: We used restricted randomisation to allocate 24 peer navigator pairs (clusters) in KwaZulu-Natal 1:1:1: (1) standard of care (SOC): peer navigators distributed clinic referrals, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) information to 18-30 year olds. (2) peer navigator direct distribution (PND): Peer navigators distributed HIVST packs (SOC plus two OraQuick HIVST kits) (3) incentivised peer networks (IPN): peer navigators recruited young community members (seeds) to distribute up to five HIVST packs to 18-30 year olds within their social networks. Seeds received 20 Rand (US$1.5) for each recipient who distributed further packs. The primary outcome was PrEP/ART linkage, defined as screening for PrEP/ART eligibility within 90 days of pack distribution per peer navigator month (pnm) of outreach, in women aged 18-24 (a priority for HIV prevention). Investigators and statisticians were blinded to allocation. Analysis was intention to treat. Total and unit costs were collected prospectively. RESULTS: Between March and December 2019, 4163 packs (1098 SOC, 1480 PND, 1585 IPN) were distributed across 24 clusters. During 144 pnm, 272 18-30 year olds linked to PrEP/ART (1.9/pnm). Linkage rates for 18-24-year-old women were lower for IPN (n=26, 0.54/pnm) than PND (n=45, 0.80/pnm; SOC n=49, 0.85/pnm). Rate ratios were 0.68 (95% CI 0.28 to 1.66) for IPN versus PND, 0.64 (95% CI 0.26 to 1.62) for IPN versus SOC and 0.95 (95% CI 0.38 to 2.36) for PND versus SOC. In 18-30 year olds, PND had significantly more linkages than IPN (2.11 vs 0.88/pnm, RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.98). Cost per pack distributed was cheapest for IPN (US$36) c.f. SOC (US$64). Cost per person linked to PrEP/ART was cheaper in both peer navigator arms compared with IPN. DISCUSSION: HIVST did not increase demand for PrEP/ART. Incentivised social network distribution reached large numbers with HIVST but resulted in fewer linkages compared with PrEP/ART promotion by peer navigators. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03751826.

Survival of Children Living With HIV on Art in Zambia: A 13-Years Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

Background: Research conducted before the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy (ART), showed that the majority of children living with HIV (CLHIV) would die before their second birthday. In Zambia, ART was rolled out to the public health system in 2004 with subsequent improved survival in CLHIV. However, the survival rates of CLHIV on ART in Zambia since 2004 have not been extensively documented. We assessed survival experiences and the factors associated with survival in CLHIV on ART in Zambia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of CLHIV (aged up to 15 years) using routinely collected data from health facilities across Zambia, over 13 years to ascertain mortality rates. We explored survival factors using Cox regression giving adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Nelson Aalen estimates were used to show the cumulative hazards of mortality for different levels of explanatory factors. Results: A total of 65,448 eligible children, were initiated on ART between 2005 and 2018, of which 33,483 (51%) where female. They contributed a total survival time of 275,715-person years at risk during which 3,265 children died which translated into an incidence rate of 1.1 deaths per 100 person-years during the review period. Mortality rates were highest in children in the first year of life (Mortality rate 2.24; 95% CI = 2.08-2.42) and during the first year on ART (Mortality rate 3.82 95% CI = 3.67-3.98). Over 50% of the children had been on ART for 5-10 years by 2018, and they had the lowest risk of mortality compared to children who had been on ART for <5 years. Conclusions: Children with HIV in Zambia are surviving much longer than was predicted before ART was introduced 14 years ago. This key finding adds to the literature on analysis of survival in CLHIV in low income settings like Zambia. However, this survival is dependent on the age at which ART is initiated and the time on ART highlighting the need to increase investments in early infant diagnosis (EID) to ensure timely HIV testing and ART initiation for CLHIV.

The impact of HIV status on the distance traveled to health facilities and adherence to care. A record-linkage study from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: For people living with HIV (PLWH), the burden of travelling to a clinic outside of one's home community in order to reduce the level of stigma experienced, may impact adherence to treatment and accelerate disease progression. METHODS: This study is set in the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in South Africa. Probabilistic and interactive methods were used to individually link HDSS data with medical records. A regression analysis was used to assess whether travel distance was correlated with the condition for which individuals were seeking care (primarily HIV, diabetes or hypertension). For PLWH, a Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to test for an association between the distance travelled to the clinic and late attendance at follow-up visits. RESULTS: The adjusted relative risk (RR) of travelling to a clinic more than 5 km from that nearest to their home for HIV patients compared to those being treated for other conditions was 2.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.23-3.48). The adjusted Cox regression model showed no evidence for an association between the distance travelled to a clinic and the rate of late visits. (RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: The findings were consistent with the hypothesis that people living with HIV/AIDS would be willing to accept the burden of increased clinic travel distances in order to maintain anonymity and so limit their exposure to stigma from fellow community members. For those seeking HIV care the lack of an association between increased travel distances and late visit attendance suggests this may not impact treatment outcomes.

Effectiveness of Lifelong ART (Option B+) in the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV Programme in Zambia: Observations Based on Routinely Collected Health Data.

Background: Mother to child transmission of HIV (MTCT) is a global challenge affecting many countries especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2009 about 370,000 infants were infected with HIV mainly through MTCT and most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of Option B+ compared to other options in reducing rates of early MTCT of HIV infections in Zambia. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study based on routinely collected data using SmartCare in Zambia. Survival analysis with Cox Proportional Hazard regression was used to determine association between MTCT and regimen type of mothers. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were used to compare MTCT for infants born to mothers option B+ to those on other options, and Wilcoxon (Breslow) test was used to establish statistical significance. Results: Overall (n = 1,444), mother-baby pairs with complete data were included in the analysis, with the median age of mothers being 33 (28-38) years; and 57% of these women were on Option B+. MTCT rate was estimated at 5% (73/1,444) [P = 0.025]. A Kaplan-Meier estimate showed that HIV Exposed Infants (HEI) of mothers on Option B+ had lower MTCT rate than those who were on other MTCT prevention interventions [Wilcoxon test; chi2 = 4.97; P = 0.025]. Furthermore, The Nelson Aalen cumulative hazard estimates indicated similar evidence of option B+ being more effective than other options with some statistical significance [HR = 0.63, P = 0.068]. HEI of option B+ mothers had 50% reduced risk of having HIV infection compared to option A/B [adjusted HR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.28-0.84; P = 0.010]. HEI to women who were married had an increased risk 50% of getting infected compared to those not married [adjusted HR = 1.5; 95% CI = 3.43-6.30; P < 0.001]. Exposed infants whose mothers had assisted delivery had 3 times increased risk of getting infected compared to those born through normal vaginal delivery [Adjusted HR = 3.2; 95% CI = 0.98-10.21; P = 0.050]. Conclusions: The use of Option B+ as PMTCT intervention was found to be more effective in reducing MTCT of HIV compared to other options. Scaling up access to life-long ART and improving retention for women on treatment can potentially reduce further vertical transmission.

A qualitative inquiry into implementing an electronic health record system (SmartCare) for prevention of mother-to-child transmission data in Zambia: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the challenges in implementing a Zambian electronic health records (EHR) system labelled 'SmartCare' from diverse stakeholder perspectives in order to improve prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) data collection so that SmartCare can be used for clinic performance strengthening and programme monitoring. DESIGN: This is a qualitative retrospective study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: SmartCare is a Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH)-led project funded by the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Data were collected using in-depth interviews, observations and focus group discussions (FGDs) between September and November 2016. Seventeen in-depth interviews were held with a range of key informants from the MoH and local and international organisations implementing SmartCare. Four data entry observations and three FGDs with 22 pregnant and lactating women seeking PMTCT services were conducted. Data were analysed using a thematic content approach. RESULTS: The SmartCare system has evolved from various patient tracking systems into a multifunctional system. There is a burden of information required so that sometimes not all is collected and entered into the database, resulting in poor data quality. Funding challenges impede data collection due to manpower constraints and shortages of supplies. Challenges associated with data collection depend on whether a paper-based or computer-based system is used. There is no uniformity in the data quality verification and submission strategies employed by various IPs. There is little feedback from the EHR system at health facility level, which has led to disengagement as stakeholders do not see the importance of the system. CONCLUSION: SmartCare has structural challenges which can be traced from its development. Funding gaps have resulted in staffing and data collection disparities within IPs. The lack of feedback from the system has also led to complacency at the operational level, which has resulted in poor data quality in later years.

Increasing Proportion of HIV-Infected Pregnant Zambian Women Attending Antenatal Care Are Already on Antiretroviral Therapy (2010-2015).

Introduction: Accurate estimates of coverage of prevention of mother-to-child (PMTCT) services among HIV-infected pregnant women are vital for monitoring progress toward HIV elimination targets. The achievement of high coverage and uptake of services along the PMTCT cascade is crucial for national and international mother-to child transmission (MTCT) elimination goals. In eastern and southern Africa, MTCT rate fell from 18% of infants born to mothers living with HIV in 2010 to 6% in 2015. This paper describes the degree to which World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for PMTCT services were implemented in Zambia between 2010 and 2015. Method: The study used routinely collected data from all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC) in SmartCare health facilities from January 2010 to December 2015. Categorical variables were summarized using proportions while continuous variables were summarized using medians and interquartile ranges. Results: There were 104,155 pregnant women who attended ANC services in SmartCare facilities during the study period. Of these, 9% tested HIV-positive during ANC visits whilst 43% had missing HIV test result records. Almost half (47%) of pregnant women who tested HIV-positive in their ANC visit were recorded in 2010. Among HIV-positive women, there was an increase in those already on ART at first ANC visit from 9% in 2011 to 74% in 2015. The overall mean time lag between starting ANC care and ART initiation was 7 months, over the 6 year period, but there were notable variations between provinces and years. Conclusion: The implementation of the WHO post 2010 PMTCT guidelines has resulted in an increase in the proportion of HIV-infected pregnant women attending ANC who are already on ART. However, the variability in HIV infection rates, missing data, and time to initiation of ART suggests there are some underlying health service or database issues which require attention.